Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
- “Might Tory MPs stop fretting about Xmas parties, listen instead to these words from David Davis – “an uncivilised ….. removal of the rights of people” – and do the right thing for a change while they still can?”
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Where is that principle in this legislation ? I don't see it expressed or even implied.
The law in question is about the Home Secretary having the power to remove citizenship should she determine it is “conducive to the public good”. Sure, legal challenges will be (in some cases) possible, but it is not to be compared to an increase in income tax. It's a law which grants the power to a single politician to target individuals and potentially destroy their lives.
A journalist who keeps asking pesky questions for example, especially if about something like the security services or the armed forces abroad. I could absolutely see it being used against them.
Then why hasn't or wouldn't the pre-existing law be used against them?
The rubicon has already been crossed on this, by Blair, yet no journalists have been targeted.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
In reality it is probably less risky as Omicron is much milder.
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
Tories to come third might be a good bet if anyone is offering it.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are still on 59% with Leavers and the LDs are on just 2% with Leavers, then the Tories won't come third in North Shropshire. Given Shropshire was 57% Leave they might even hold it as Labour take more of the anti Tory vote in this strongly Leave seat than expected
I'm expecting a Tory hold, HYUFD. They are certainly value at odds against. I know the area fairly well. It's not very far from where I now live. As you and others have pointed out, it is Leave Central and I doubt the voters there pay much attention to parties and wallpaper in Downing Street.
I would nevertheless be interested in a bet on Tories to come third. This is because if they do lose, it will not be because of voter affinity for Labour or LD parties with which they have nothing in common. It will be because of a catastrophic collapse in the Tory vote, in which case they are as likely to finish third (or lower) as second.
I'd need decent odds -say 5/1 or better - but it might be an interesting punt.
Remember Hyufd, this is a betting site after all!
I agree. I haven't been so I have no personal experience but bearing in mind the last couple of weeks I can see anything from a Tory win with a reduced majority to LDs just winning to a LD landslide and even Tories coming 3rd.
I think the first two are most likely but the 2nd two not off the chart and worth a bet if the odds are generous enough.
There was some chat earlier in the week about tfl. Any inside track on the horse trading? With the new restrictions it’s very difficult for me to believe that they won’t be given enough cash to see them through, unless anyone hearing to the contrary?
I don’t think it’s the short term that matters - it’s the permanent loss of 30% of ticket income that is the problem - and there is no way anyone in Government can sign off a subsidy without it being used against them at the next election
Equally there is no way that a party can see multiple tube lines and bus routes closed without seeing it used against them. No tube in some of the outer London marginals could be a 20-30% house price drop.
So, no inside track but would expect a significant reduction in service and investment but enough subsidy to keep something going on all current tube lines.
The closure of the Bakerloo line and/or other tube lines only exists as a thing in the bizarre world of PB Northerner fantasy.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
In reality it is probably less risky as Omicron is much milder.
Perhaps, although as omicron is still in very small numbers it's probably a wash at worst.
December starts with the latest results from the COV-BOOST study with its hugely important findings which will inform how booster doses can be administered moving forward. There are a number of other underway to test new boosters (including the Gritstone, Sanofi and Octave Duo) and how to give pregnant women the best protection through vaccination (Preg-CoV).
We still need to find safe and effective treatments that can help people to recover from COVID-19 at home, without the need to go to hospital. The antiviral PANORAMIC platform study has been announced which will help generate the evidence the NHS needs to roll-out the latest COVID-19 treatments and improve outcomes for those at greatest risk. The ease and accessibility of antiviral treatments could prove to be our next effective weapon in our arsenal for fighting the disease.
Two vaccines which included thousands of volunteers across the UK, in the shape of Novavax and Valneva, have begun to submit for approval across different regulatory agencies.
There was an interesting email circular discussing how to distribute antivirals via our community clinics from a practical perspective. It didn't specifically mention covid, but I took it to mean that.
The key to anti-virals working is to catch disease in its early virus multiplication phase, rather than the later, more serious post viral inflammation which is the bit that lands people in hospital.
It does sound as if someone is thinking hard how to make an antiviral programme effective.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
There's been an Aldi for well over a decade now. And a McDonald's has been approved. The very first fast food place. Much to the chagrin of the Town Council who seem to want gerontification above all else.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
I'm not relying on my workings (or yours) but I find this quite compelling:
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
There was some chat earlier in the week about tfl. Any inside track on the horse trading? With the new restrictions it’s very difficult for me to believe that they won’t be given enough cash to see them through, unless anyone hearing to the contrary?
I don’t think it’s the short term that matters - it’s the permanent loss of 30% of ticket income that is the problem - and there is no way anyone in Government can sign off a subsidy without it being used against them at the next election
Equally there is no way that a party can see multiple tube lines and bus routes closed without seeing it used against them. No tube in some of the outer London marginals could be a 20-30% house price drop.
So, no inside track but would expect a significant reduction in service and investment but enough subsidy to keep something going on all current tube lines.
The closure of the Bakerloo line and/or other tube lines only exists as a thing in the bizarre world of PB Northerner fantasy.
No it exists in the minutes of the last TfL budget meeting
I don’t expect it to happen but I know that if the Government sends any money to TfL long term it will be used against them in Red Wall seats.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
In reality it is probably less risky as Omicron is much milder.
Perhaps, although as omicron is still in very small numbers it's probably a wash at worst.
Doubling every 2.5 days though. And yes, maybe it's mild - that would be great! But I support exercising caution while we find out.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Where is that principle in this legislation ? I don't see it expressed or even implied.
The law in question is about the Home Secretary having the power to remove citizenship should she determine it is “conducive to the public good”. Sure, legal challenges will be (in some cases) possible, but it is not to be compared to an increase in income tax. It's a law which grants the power to a single politician to target individuals and potentially destroy their lives.
A journalist who keeps asking pesky questions for example, especially if about something like the security services or the armed forces abroad. I could absolutely see it being used against them.
Then why hasn't or wouldn't the pre-existing law be used against them?
The rubicon has already been crossed on this, by Blair, yet no journalists have been targeted.
Dozens of countries around the world at one point had responsible governments and now don't. I know many believe in British exceptionalism to a point where it cant happen here so dont worry about it, but that is very naive. A cursory glance at world politics tells us authoritarianism and executive power is on a successful march forward.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
There's one in Hexham. Have been in once. Have seen my Tory MP out and about in the constituency once also. Readers won't be surprised the two occurred at precisely the same moment!
There also seems to be several branches in the Newcastle area. The PB Salt of the Earth Northerners are obsessed about a 'London' supermarket that has many branches up north. They are irrational and prejudiced – who knew?
Re the citizen debate I am going to say something that just might be a little simplistic:
I don't think anyone should have their citizenship removed no matter what they have done. I feel it is the responsibility of the state to both look after their citizens and take responsibility for what their citizens do when they behave badly. It is up to us to protect our country and the rest of the world from our citizens behaviour through the justice system not to throw them out to behave badly elsewhere.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The essential difference there is between a political policy which will effect everyone, and is therefore unlikely in a democracy, and a targeted attack. A better comparison would be a law which allowed the Treasury to expropriate an individual's assets if the Chancellor judged it “conducive to the public good”.
Targeting individuals, when you have the power of the government media machine behind you, is infinitely easier to get away with.
There's a first time for everything, I guess. But how likely is that?
It is complex but he does not seem to have recovered fully from covid, he presents himself as a shambles which he is, and now he has a baby in the family
The sheer torrent of attacks coming from across the spectrum has to be draining his mental health, and of course he may see the inevitable coming and decides for the sake of his family and his well being he leaves before he is pushed
He has never left a job as a result of being pushed. If he wants it he stays. No matter what.
Bollox excuses for him and he is so full of himself he could never damage his mental health . The freakoid will endure till he is booted out on his fat arse.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
You do realise that Wes Streeting was brought up in a council estate in Stepney? If you actually visited London and spent some time here, your pathetic prejudice might ease somewhat.
I wasn't being specific about Wes. He seems to be a great asset to the Labour front bench.
And I did live in London for 4 years.
I just want a Labour Party that can reconnect with the voters we lost in 2019, and indeed over previous electoral cycles, in working class communities across the country. Having prominent figures with a range of accents, representing seats from across the country, is all part of doing this.
Plenty of Labour frontbenchers from up north. Those on PB speak in hushed tones about Angela and Bridget.
And don't forget our Lisa Nandy, the Queen of Wigan.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
And anyway who wants Waitrose when Booths is so much better
Which is what a friend (who works in Waitrose) says!
I agree with Mr darkage, and, of course, with Ms Cyclefree. So far as I can ascertain, the vast majority of my, and my wife's ancestors were in these islands when the Normans came, and many, possibly most, of them when the Romans did. However, the world is a wider place now and I have grandchildren with dual nationality. I sincerely hope, of course, that they won't get into any sort of bother which could lead them to having their British passports removed; however, I really, really oppose even the possibility, without due trial and an open process. As Mr D points out, the treatment of our Windrush neighbours does not create confidence; there appears to be some malignity in the Home Office which takes the view that anyone who doesn't 'look the part' should be expelled unless they can find a reason to stay. It's shameful.
Mrs J is a dual citizen, and from a country that it is possible we might have aggro with in the future. She is (IMV) a good citizen, holds down a good job, and contributes positively to society. Yet in the back of her mind, she knows that she will never quite 'belong' : and laws like this accentuate that feeling.
Millions of good people, who have lived and worked in this country for decades, or even their whole lives, will be feeling concern over this. The law may be framed as narrow in scope, but as I see it, the opportunity for someone of ill intent to use it for evil is wide.
BTW, as I've said passim, she's never really encountered racism in this country - except for one possible time in London when she was spat at: but she has no idea whether that was due to race or some other weird thing. Contrast with Germany, where on our first night in the country she was subjected to racial abuse from a group of men whilst staying in a hotel.
The law is not framed "as narrow in scope". It is framed very widely indeed. But we are expected to take it on trust that it will only be applied narrowly. This is exactly the wrong way round.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
I'm not relying on my workings (or yours) but I find this quite compelling:
Yes, but how is the risk today – today – materially greater than it was a fortnight ago? That shows future spread, which I don't think anyone is challenging. It doesn't show the absolute risk today compared with a fortnight ago when everyone was looking forward to Christmas parties.
Re the citizen debate I am going to say something that just might be a little simplistic:
I don't think anyone should have their citizenship removed no matter what they have done. I feel it is the responsibility of the state to both look after their citizens and take responsibility for what their citizens do when they behave badly. It is up to us to protect our country and the rest of the world from our citizens behaviour through the justice system not to throw them out to behave badly elsewhere.
Agree 100%. And Labour should be ashamed of taking the first step down this slippery slope.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
There's one in Hexham. Have been in once. Have seen my Tory MP out and about in the constituency once also. Readers won't be surprised the two occurred at precisely the same moment!
There also seems to be several branches in the Newcastle area. The PB Salt of the Earth Northerners are obsessed about a 'London' supermarket that has many branches up north. They are irrational and prejudiced – who knew?
December starts with the latest results from the COV-BOOST study with its hugely important findings which will inform how booster doses can be administered moving forward. There are a number of other underway to test new boosters (including the Gritstone, Sanofi and Octave Duo) and how to give pregnant women the best protection through vaccination (Preg-CoV).
We still need to find safe and effective treatments that can help people to recover from COVID-19 at home, without the need to go to hospital. The antiviral PANORAMIC platform study has been announced which will help generate the evidence the NHS needs to roll-out the latest COVID-19 treatments and improve outcomes for those at greatest risk. The ease and accessibility of antiviral treatments could prove to be our next effective weapon in our arsenal for fighting the disease.
Two vaccines which included thousands of volunteers across the UK, in the shape of Novavax and Valneva, have begun to submit for approval across different regulatory agencies.
There was an interesting email circular discussing how to distribute antivirals via our community clinics from a practical perspective. It didn't specifically mention covid, but I took it to mean that.
The key to anti-virals working is to catch disease in its early virus multiplication phase, rather than the later, more serious post viral inflammation which is the bit that lands people in hospital.
It does sound as if someone is thinking hard how to make an antiviral programme effective.
AIUI, and I used to spend a lot of time with community clinics, the network has been much reduced. Community pharmacies, with a voucher system such as that used for LF tests, perhaps. Although not everyone, especially many of those at higher risk, don't have the required technology. Do we know yet what the dose regimen will be?
Absolute egregious sexism to blame Carrie for Bozza's failures.
That he is an incompetent fool is down to him and him alone.
Nothing to do with his wife FFS.
Rubbish. Are we not allowed to dissect his folly? A key part of it being his thraldom to the revoltingly nasty, selfish bit of work he is married to.
Have you ever met this lady that you are so horrible and mean about?
I suspect the answer is – no.
Um, no. Nor Stalin or Lady Macbeth or Clytemnestra, but I have valid and evidence-based views about them too.
Says a lot that two of those are fictional characters. QED.
You really are having a bad morning are you not? You have just made another cast iron point against yourself. You say you can't have opinions about people you don't know. I deliberately cite a mix with fictional characters in it to make the point that you can opinions about people who are by definition unknowable because non-existent. You say Ooh, a heffalump trap, I must jump in to that.
It is you that is having a bad morning, by rattling out sexist tropes. You are old enough and intelligent enough to know better. A disappointing performance from you today. Take some time off to consider how you can improve.
It is not a sexist trope to identify a selfish, manipulative woman as a selfish, manipulative woman. Do you think it unfair to expect moral autonomy of her because of her sex?
But we don't bandy ladies' names in the mess, old boy.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
In reality it is probably less risky as Omicron is much milder.
Perhaps, although as omicron is still in very small numbers it's probably a wash at worst.
Doubling every 2.5 days though. And yes, maybe it's mild - that would be great! But I support exercising caution while we find out.
Sure, but how is the risk materially different today than it was a fortnight ago? Simple mathematics suggests that cancelling a party today when you would have held it a fortnight ago is innumerate.
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
Interesting bit of research. Prior common cold coronavirus infection doesn't help your immune system fight against Covid, as some have speculated - it hinders it.
Pre-existing humoral immunity to human common cold coronaviruses negatively impacts the protective SARS-CoV-2 antibody response https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(21)00570-9 ... a case-control study indicates baseline hCCCoV antibody levels are not associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Rather, higher magnitudes of pre-existing betacoronavirus antibodies correlate with more SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following infection, an indicator of greater disease severity. Additionally, immunization with hCCCoV spike proteins before SARS-CoV-2 immunization impedes generation of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in mice. Together, these data suggest pre-existing hCCCoV antibodies hinder SARS-CoV-2 antibody-based immunity following infection and provide insight on how pre-existing coronavirus immunity impacts SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is critical considering emerging variants...
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
I expect it to be a landslide for them
As a LibDem voter I wish I could agree with you, Big G, but a 23,000 majority turning into a landslide for the party that won just 10% last time is a very, very big ask. The LibDems are only seeing a modest uptick in the national polls.
A LibDem win could happen - on balance I think the Conservatives will retain it, but I'm a pessimist like that. But a landslide? I'd be astonished.
I expect a Lib Dem landslide.
Governments don't win midterm by-elections in general and in the current circumstances, with the imposition of new restrictions and all the mess of recent weeks, I'd be voting Lib Dem to send a midterm message to the government.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
I guess I liken the Christmas party fear to fear of the weather forecast. "I'm not going to drive to my aunt's in the north Pennines this weekend because all the weathermen say it's going to snow heavily next weekend."
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
A tad lighter on the drinking, orgies and murderous entertainment from my experience.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
It's not about the risk of attending a party, though, is it ? It's the risk of everyone doing so, carrying one their lives uninterrupted, and potentially generating a very large surge in cases over the next month.
I'm not going to argue whether or not the judgment is correct, but if you're going to argue against it, at least address the rationale, rather than a straw man.
"Waitrose" is merely shorthand description for a well off, comfortably-living, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling Labour luvvie, who wibbles on about the latest right-on cause and is completely out of touch and clueless when it comes to the bread and butter issues that matter to the average voter.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
I'm worried now.
Who under 100 and in good health cares about a severe cold? The IFR of Delta was ~0.1%, said the DHSC in July 2021 (aka flu).
Since the MSM have now searched the world and been unable to find an Omicron death, I'm assuming that Omicron is <~0.01%?
For 20 months, risks have been exaggerated and IFRs of 0.15% have been portrayed as 5%. Why? Scared people will do almost anything governments ask.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
A tad lighter on the drinking, orgies and murderous entertainment from my experience.
Sigh. Virtually every Christmas event in this part of rural North Yorkshire has been cancelled. It’s as though nobody has been vaccinated and the absence, for months now, of severe Covid amongst the elderly in the village was just a dream. All the calculation has been about protecting the worried with no consideration of the loss of well-being that comes from the traditional celebrations. This Christmas will be better than last Christmas, my arse.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
A tad lighter on the drinking, orgies and murderous entertainment from my experience.
Certainly when the squaddies marched south for good*. Must have been like Aldershot on a Friday night before then.
*Metaphorically - I'm aware some probably stayed and just melted into the local agrarian population.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
I agree and I oppose this legislation. I also think we are way off depriving UK citizens of citizenship for frivolous reasons. The HoC and the HoL need to look carefully at this. And both the Labour party and the One Nation Tory tradition, which desperately needs renewing (step forward Jeremy Hunt) need to be clear in their plans for how they would do better in protecting ordinary people from both the threat of being made an unperson and the threat of treasonous UK citizens feeling free to act violently all over the world without realistic sanctions.
Re the citizen debate I am going to say something that just might be a little simplistic:
I don't think anyone should have their citizenship removed no matter what they have done. I feel it is the responsibility of the state to both look after their citizens and take responsibility for what their citizens do when they behave badly. It is up to us to protect our country and the rest of the world from our citizens behaviour through the justice system not to throw them out to behave badly elsewhere.
Agreed.
What if we grant entry to an individual who goes on to commit crimes within a short time. Let's say five years. Should citizenship be withdrawn in that circumstance or, alternatively, should formal citizenship be deferred until five years have elapsed?
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
Yep. Chuck up some rabbit hutches in the poor end of town. Charge above the local market rate. Attract some bijoux businesses on the strength of it. Drive up rents for the locals. After 5 or 10 or so years flog them off to "urban professionals" and find the next down-at-heel location.
"Waitrose" is merely shorthand description for a well off, comfortably-living, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling Labour luvvie, who wibbles on about the latest right-on cause and is completely out of touch and clueless when it comes to the bread and butter issues that matter to the average voter.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
Sainsbury's is there to keep the riff raff out of Waitrose (Stephen Fry)
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
Tories to come third might be a good bet if anyone is offering it.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are still on 59% with Leavers and the LDs are on just 2% with Leavers, then the Tories won't come third in North Shropshire. Given Shropshire was 57% Leave they might even hold it as Labour take more of the anti Tory vote in this strongly Leave seat than expected
I'm expecting a Tory hold, HYUFD. They are certainly value at odds against. I know the area fairly well. It's not very far from where I now live. As you and others have pointed out, it is Leave Central and I doubt the voters there pay much attention to parties and wallpaper in Downing Street.
I would nevertheless be interested in a bet on Tories to come third. This is because if they do lose, it will not be because of voter affinity for Labour or LD parties with which they have nothing in common. It will be because of a catastrophic collapse in the Tory vote, in which case they are as likely to finish third (or lower) as second.
I'd need decent odds -say 5/1 or better - but it might be an interesting punt.
Remember Hyufd, this is a betting site after all!
I agree. I haven't been so I have no personal experience but bearing in mind the last couple of weeks I can see anything from a Tory win with a reduced majority to LDs just winning to a LD landslide and even Tories coming 3rd.
I think the first two are most likely but the 2nd two not off the chart and worth a bet if the odds are generous enough.
I think the Lib Dems will squeak it. The most the lib dems can win it by is about 10%. I think unlike Chesham and Amersham which the LDs could feasibly hold at the next election, this by election will have no lasting effect whatsoever.
The best historical comparison is the Ribble Valley by election in 1991.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
I agree and I oppose this legislation. I also think we are way off depriving UK citizens of citizenship for frivolous reasons. The HoC and the HoL need to look carefully at this. And both the Labour party and the One Nation Tory tradition, which desperately needs renewing (step forward Jeremy Hunt) need to be clear in their plans for how they would do better in protecting ordinary people from both the threat of being made an unperson and the threat of treasonous UK citizens feeling free to act violently all over the world without realistic sanctions.
Yes, I concur and it pleases me that we reach across the customary political divide on this.
All the main Parties are at fault, even (especially?) the LibDems. Our response must be to react as individuals, foreswear tribal allegiances and support individual candidates of whatever colour who are prepared to oppose the regrettable trend.
That won't be easy but it would certainly be worthwhile.
"Waitrose" is merely shorthand description for a well off, comfortably-living, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling Labour luvvie, who wibbles on about the latest right-on cause and is completely out of touch and clueless when it comes to the bread and butter issues that matter to the average voter.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
Ha ha, you are a self hating Waitrose shopper. I never shop at Waitrose despite being a hand-wringer par excellence.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
Likely. Also that in any data series there is fluctuation - look at the trend not the snapshot. We had the same on here yesterday with "ooh, 3k less than last week, its on the slide". Err no. Sadly no.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
It's not about the risk of attending a party, though, is it ? It's the risk of everyone doing so, carrying one their lives uninterrupted, and potentially generating a very large surge in cases over the next month.
I'm not going to argue whether or not the judgment is correct, but if you're going to argue against it, at least address the rationale, rather than a straw man.
Well, they are not carrying on their lives uninterrupted because there are now mask mandates in shops and cinemas and theatres. Meantime, house gatherings are allowed as normal as are Christmas parties. Those are the rules.
Yet there seems to be a feeling among the hawks on PB that there is something uniquely dangerous about Christmas parties – when in fact they are of no more risk than they would have been a fortnight ago. Are the same PBers who are cancelling Christmas parties also cancelling all their Christmas guests? Are they pulling their children out of school? Prolonged at-home gatherings and school attendance are statistically far 'riskier' in terms of infections than one-off parties (although I think all of them should go ahead, we have to live our lives).
The party pearl-clutching has all the hallmarks of a hair-shirt.
4 of the 7 by-elections yesterday are counting today. The Cons are maintaining their 100% streak from last night. That's 2 losses to Lab, and one each for LD and Green. And counting...
Sigh. Virtually every Christmas event in this part of rural North Yorkshire has been cancelled. It’s as though nobody has been vaccinated and the absence, for months now, of severe Covid amongst the elderly in the village was just a dream. All the calculation has been about protecting the worried with no consideration of the loss of well-being that comes from the traditional celebrations. This Christmas will be better than last Christmas, my arse.
Its all about Omicron. Remember that the powers that be said at the beginning of this week that they needed into next week to have sufficient data to know what they need to do. Suddenly Liar is under pressure and press conference is announced quickly, look here new restrictions, please talk about that and not parties.
Whitty looked forlorn, and said this was a cabinet decision. This government has once again hidden behind the science and used Whitty et al as political shields. We *may* need these restrictions, we may not. We may need far tighter restrictions if the data combined with out NHS already overloaded position means Bad happens otherwise. But we don't know *now*. Christmas is being cancelled to try and save enquiries into the PM.
Thanks @Cyclefree for clear and informative piece on this bad bill. "Liberal" is bandied around no end as an approving description - often of self - and opposing these changes is a good test of whether it genuinely applies. The change needed is in the other direction imo. It should be harder than it is for the government to strip someone of their British citizenship not easier.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Not just morality but practicality as well. Those who worry about how well and how quickly immigrants integrate into the country should understand that having your citizenship reduced to a residency visa which shall last so long as you are useful to the public good in the eyes of the home secretary is unlikely to make that any better.
All citizens being equal under the law is a fundamental pillar of democracy and also successful integration.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
"Waitrose" is merely shorthand description for a well off, comfortably-living, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling Labour luvvie, who wibbles on about the latest right-on cause and is completely out of touch and clueless when it comes to the bread and butter issues that matter to the average voter.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
So the term has supplanted the more traditional 'Guardian Reader' then? I suppose nobody reads papers any more.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
I think also student's expectations are much higher now than they used to be. When I was a student in the 90s I had a sink in my hall room but had to walk down a long corridor to have a shower in an area that was always freezing cold in the winter. Furnishings were basic - single bed, wardrobe, desk and chair. I think almost all accommodation is ensuite now isn't it? Having said that, I think many Universities have seen this as a great way to top up their funding.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Interesting observation on a thread on the spread... https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157773464125446 The UK is sequencing between 5000 and 8000 viruses everyday. Although turnaround times are fast, necessary processing delays permit a view that's basically lagged by ~7 days. Today, I have a strong view of Dec 1 data in @GISAID, but Dec 2 has much less data available to me. 3/21
Basic maths on the relative spread of Delta and Omicron taking 6% Omicron rate at the moment and assuming Omicron is trebling week on week (quite a modest assessment) and Delta is receding by 10% each week, which the likely stability of the 5/12 and 6/12 by sample date figures already seem to suggest:
The Omicron whump maybe comes just after Christmas, again.
At some point, of course, Omicron breaks the exponent and things bend down, but 250k cases per day is not an extreme outcome for an immune busting event.
If I were the government, with one eye on the NHS, I'd be asking the unvaccinated to pretty much shield within the next few days, or else everyone will be locked down by New Year.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Any chance Johnson might roll the dice and go for a snap GE in 2022?
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
Yep. Chuck up some rabbit hutches in the poor end of town. Charge above the local market rate. Attract some bijoux businesses on the strength of it. Drive up rents for the locals. After 5 or 10 or so years flog them off to "urban professionals" and find the next down-at-heel location.
That's what happens when you have Councils (eg Oxford, Nottingham for many years now`) with deliberate policies to force students to live in institutional settings, and try to take away the option of students living in private house rentals.
Plus when you load up the abusive regulation to make money for the Council, it is ultimately paid for by students.
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
I think also student's expectations are much higher now than they used to be. When I was a student in the 90s I had a sink in my hall room but had to walk down a long corridor to have a shower in an area that was always freezing cold in the winter. Furnishings were basic - single bed, wardrobe, desk and chair. I think almost all accommodation is ensuite now isn't it? Having said that, I think many Universities have seen this as a great way to top up their funding.
Thank you Alistair for this morning's Four Yorkshiremen post.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
HYUFD didn't want his vote anyway. Only the purest of Tory heart are allowed to vote Tory. Traitors can do one.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Yes because that 'smooth and orderly' transition to Brown worked so well for Labour in 2010 didn't it? A brief poll bounce then downhill all the way to defeat
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The essential difference there is between a political policy which will effect everyone, and is therefore unlikely in a democracy, and a targeted attack. A better comparison would be a law which allowed the Treasury to expropriate an individual's assets if the Chancellor judged it “conducive to the public good”.
Targeting individuals, when you have the power of the government media machine behind you, is infinitely easier to get away with.
Speaking of which, the British seem to have come up with a privatized version of the American civil forfeiture: Lloyds will be doing "rapid data analysis" to identify people who are up to no good, seize the funds, and spend the funds doing more investigations to seize more money.
Lloyds Bank is an organization incapable of analysing the contents of their own incoming mail, or removing the leading "0" after the country code to dial an international phone number. So the result of their financially incentivized rapid data analysis is going to end up like this, but with less recourse to courts: https://priceonomics.com/how-police-officers-seize-cash-from-innocent/
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
I think he is in much more trouble than you suggest
Comments
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The rubicon has already been crossed on this, by Blair, yet no journalists have been targeted.
I still expect Hamilton to be fastest.
Would've been interesting in Saudi Arabia if Red Bull had kept Verstappen on the hard tyres at the second red flag. Surprised they didn't, frankly.
I think the first two are most likely but the 2nd two not off the chart and worth a bet if the odds are generous enough.
The closure of the Bakerloo line and/or other tube lines only exists as a thing in the bizarre world of PB Northerner fantasy.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
The key to anti-virals working is to catch disease in its early virus multiplication phase, rather than the later, more serious post viral inflammation which is the bit that lands people in hospital.
It does sound as if someone is thinking hard how to make an antiviral programme effective.
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157770716872708?s=20
I also trust Witty and Vallance.
To have this many public names at this point is a big deal. https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1469257084285997057
If you are over 70 and loaded.
Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
I don’t expect it to happen but I know that if the Government sends any money to TfL long term it will be used against them in Red Wall seats.
So the question is how is the deficit covered
I don't think anyone should have their citizenship removed no matter what they have done. I feel it is the responsibility of the state to both look after their citizens and take responsibility for what their citizens do when they behave badly. It is up to us to protect our country and the rest of the world from our citizens behaviour through the justice system not to throw them out to behave badly elsewhere.
Targeting individuals, when you have the power of the government media machine behind you, is infinitely easier to get away with.
Do we know yet what the dose regimen will be?
But we don't bandy ladies' names in the mess, old boy.
Sure, but how is the risk materially different today than it was a fortnight ago? Simple mathematics suggests that cancelling a party today when you would have held it a fortnight ago is innumerate.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/10/uk-students-pay-60-more-for-halls-of-residence-than-decade-ago
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
Prior common cold coronavirus infection doesn't help your immune system fight against Covid, as some have speculated - it hinders it.
Pre-existing humoral immunity to human common cold coronaviruses negatively impacts the protective SARS-CoV-2 antibody response
https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(21)00570-9
... a case-control study indicates baseline hCCCoV antibody levels are not associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Rather, higher magnitudes of pre-existing betacoronavirus antibodies correlate with more SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following infection, an indicator of greater disease severity. Additionally, immunization with hCCCoV spike proteins before SARS-CoV-2 immunization impedes generation of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in mice. Together, these data suggest pre-existing hCCCoV antibodies hinder SARS-CoV-2 antibody-based immunity following infection and provide insight on how pre-existing coronavirus immunity impacts SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is critical considering emerging variants...
Welcome back from the sweat box Philip.
That's Corbridge.
It's the risk of everyone doing so, carrying one their lives uninterrupted, and potentially generating a very large surge in cases over the next month.
I'm not going to argue whether or not the judgment is correct, but if you're going to argue against it, at least address the rationale, rather than a straw man.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
Since the MSM have now searched the world and been unable to find an Omicron death, I'm assuming that Omicron is <~0.01%?
For 20 months, risks have been exaggerated and IFRs of 0.15% have been portrayed as 5%. Why? Scared people will do almost anything governments ask.
It’s as though nobody has been vaccinated and the absence, for months now, of severe Covid amongst the elderly in the village was just a dream.
All the calculation has been about protecting the worried with no consideration of the loss of well-being that comes from the traditional celebrations.
This Christmas will be better than last Christmas, my arse.
*Metaphorically - I'm aware some probably stayed and just melted into the local agrarian population.
What if we grant entry to an individual who goes on to commit crimes within a short time. Let's say five years. Should citizenship be withdrawn in that circumstance or, alternatively, should formal citizenship be deferred until five years have elapsed?
After 5 or 10 or so years flog them off to "urban professionals" and find the next down-at-heel location.
Much of life is timing.
The best historical comparison is the Ribble Valley by election in 1991.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
All the main Parties are at fault, even (especially?) the LibDems. Our response must be to react as individuals, foreswear tribal allegiances and support individual candidates of whatever colour who are prepared to oppose the regrettable trend.
That won't be easy but it would certainly be worthwhile.
A1?
Yet there seems to be a feeling among the hawks on PB that there is something uniquely dangerous about Christmas parties – when in fact they are of no more risk than they would have been a fortnight ago. Are the same PBers who are cancelling Christmas parties also cancelling all their Christmas guests? Are they pulling their children out of school? Prolonged at-home gatherings and school attendance are statistically far 'riskier' in terms of infections than one-off parties (although I think all of them should go ahead, we have to live our lives).
The party pearl-clutching has all the hallmarks of a hair-shirt.
Green 731
Con 454
Lab 48
Green gain from Con
The Cons are maintaining their 100% streak from last night.
That's 2 losses to Lab, and one each for LD and Green.
And counting...
Whitty looked forlorn, and said this was a cabinet decision. This government has once again hidden behind the science and used Whitty et al as political shields. We *may* need these restrictions, we may not. We may need far tighter restrictions if the data combined with out NHS already overloaded position means Bad happens otherwise. But we don't know *now*. Christmas is being cancelled to try and save enquiries into the PM.
And are you still parting your hair in the centre?
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
1st round
Macron (LREM-RE): 24% (-1)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 19% (+10)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17% (-1.5)
Zemmour (R-*): 12% (-2.5)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (+1.5)
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1469254010024640514?s=20
Runoffs
Macron (LREM-RE): 51%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 49%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1469267035653906436?s=20France, Odoxa poll:
Presidential run-off election (among likely voters)
Macron (LREM-RE): 58%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 42%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1469267713755332611?s=20
All citizens being equal under the law is a fundamental pillar of democracy and also successful integration.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Do you, Sandy? (Viz doesn't count.)
We expected him to get us out of the #EU (which you consistently opposed despite the #EUReferendum result when you were an MP) - which he did; to win us the election - which he did with an 80 majority; and be imaginative and a visionary - which he is!
https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1469256298730508295
https://twitter.com/davidgauke/status/1469077567835713545
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Index 6/12 = 1.00 cases
13/12 = 1.03 cases
20/12 = 1.30 cases
27/12 = 2.30 cases
3/1 = 5.47 cases
The Omicron whump maybe comes just after Christmas, again.
At some point, of course, Omicron breaks the exponent and things bend down, but 250k cases per day is not an extreme outcome for an immune busting event.
If I were the government, with one eye on the NHS, I'd be asking the unvaccinated to pretty much shield within the next few days, or else everyone will be locked down by New Year.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
I realise others have it different.
UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1534017/UK-trade-data-post-Brexit-GDP-EU-evg https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1469049940773158918/photo/1
Plus when you load up the abusive regulation to make money for the Council, it is ultimately paid for by students.
A shitty system, but I didn't invent it.
At the sharp end, I still think Hamilton's a clear favourite but there may be more value elsewhere.
https://www.independent.co.uk/money/pilot-scheme-uses-proceeds-of-crime-to-fight-fraud-b1971702.html?amp
Lloyds Bank is an organization incapable of analysing the contents of their own incoming mail, or removing the leading "0" after the country code to dial an international phone number. So the result of their financially incentivized rapid data analysis is going to end up like this, but with less recourse to courts:
https://priceonomics.com/how-police-officers-seize-cash-from-innocent/
So he can’t hide from the cameras for long
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1469270185253257219
I think Boris can go but getting rocks thrown by the antidemocratic likes of Gauke, Grieve and you just makes Boris seem better by contrast.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/erste-berichtete-booster-durchbrueche-mit-omikron-sieben-junge-deutsche-infizieren-sich-in-suedafrika-trotz-dritt-impfung/27879838.html