Where the Slippery Slope Leads – politicalbetting.com

System

Where the Slippery Slope Leads – politicalbetting.com

As a child arriving at Dover after a 2-day train journey from Naples, my mother and I would go through Customs and passport formalities, a channel marked “Aliens“. Those were the days when Customs officers did actually inspect luggage and supercilious passport officers looked at you and your passport details as if determined to find some reason for turning you back. All that changed of course. Foreign-born citizens are no longer called such harsh terms. Not officially, anyway.

Read the full story here

Benpointer

First Like Labour

Daveyboy1961

First like LD in NS

Carnyx

Thank you very much again, Cyclefree.

Unfortunately (not your fault at all).

Leon

14 paragraphs, like this

londonpubman

Top 5 like Con in N Shropshire. And top 1 in 330 seats min in the next GE 👍

Benpointer

Another very thought-provoking header @Cyclefree - thank you.

What chance the Lords will challenge this bill to any effect?

SeaShantyIrish2

FPT - HYUFD ". . . the poison of Margaret Thatcher's assassination dominated Tory Party politics for over a decade. The poison of the assassination of Boris would do the same. . . ."

What about self-assassination?

Some would say that's what Thatcher did to herself, but the case is clearly much stronger re: Johnson.

slade

Big Labour gain in Bracknell Forest.

Benpointer

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

Says the fanboy who promoted Putin's interminable Valdai crap.

dixiedean

Yes well.
I was assured earlier Tory MP'S have "principles about liberty".
When it comes to putting a bloody mask on that is.

MaxPB

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

Leon

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

dixiedean

Old Bracknell result:

Labour - 434 (61.13%)
Conservatives - 276 (38.87%)

Swing from Con to Lab - 16.25%

Labour gain

Leon

"If you are worried about the time [at] which the NHS might start to get very stressed, then halving the hospitalisation rate means that buys you two to three days. I think it’s really silly to suggest this is good news; it couldn’t be further from that,” he added. “This is as bad news as you can possibly get, quite frankly.”"

OK, as you were. We are fucked

rottenborough

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

eh?

rottenborough

Daveyboy1961 said:

First like LD in NS

Landslide.

slade

There is the possibility that the Conservatives could lose all 6 seats in local elections tonight.

NickPalmer

FPT: The Survation demographic breakdown is interesting, with the usual caution about subsamples. A big gender gap: Tories ahead by 4 with men, behind by 15 with women. A regional differential: Labour now 30 ahead in the North and 11 in the Midlands, but no progress in Scotland, where they're still stuck on 18. The Tories still miles ahead with Leave voters, but now in 3rd place behind the LibDems in London.

I've not compared with other pollsters. Is this huge gender gap normal? And why do we think it is?

Leon

Everything else is utterly trivial - compared to Covid - when you read that Guardian article. This is horrifying

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

I heard from an esteemed Jewish lawyer a few weeks ago, if you wanted to issue an edict of expulsion of Jews from the UK in the next few years this is the legislation that allows you to do it.

Chilling.

MaxPB

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

maaarsh said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.

Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.

And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.

Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.

Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs

I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.

I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.

On the flip side, Harper voted and campaigned for remain, has got issues with fox hunting and had his fingerprints on the "Go Home" vans, though on the final point it may have been May's policy that he was lumbered with as he condemned it when they were taken off the streets. The first point may no longer be relevant as he doesn't strike anyone as the type to roll back the existing deal or do anything slavishly pro-EU as some suspect Hunt might do.

NickPalmer

On topic, I agree that sounds very dodgy, under all parties. What is your position if you are resident in Britain and lose your citizenship? Do you need to apply for leave to remain?

rottenborough

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

maaarsh said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.

Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.

And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.

Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.

Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs

I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.

I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.

On the flip side, Harper voted and campaigned for remain, has got issues with fox hunting and had his fingerprints on the "Go Home" vans, though on the final point it may have been May's policy that he was lumbered with as he condemned it when they were taken off the streets. The first point may no longer be relevant as he doesn't strike anyone as the type to roll back the existing deal or do anything slavishly pro-EU as some suspect Hunt might do.

He was once a Whip?

Am I right in thinking Ted Heath was the only whip to become PM?

Anabobazina

John Edmunds back to his usual role as Dr Doom then. No real surprise there. He says there is “not a shred of evidence” yet plenty of scientists and doctors worldwide have provided early evidence which he has simply dismissed. Now, Edmunds might be right. But he has been very, very wrong several times in the past.

Foxy

Well, we have seen how Terrorism laws were used to spy on people not using their bins correctly:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1082225/March-dustbin-Stasi-Half-councils-use-anti-terror-laws-watch-people-putting-rubbish-wrong-day.html

So it is not at all difficult to see how government agencies might use this to remove citizenship for all sorts of trivial reasons, or even no reason at all.

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

maaarsh said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.

Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.

And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.

Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.

Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs

I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.

I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.

On the flip side, Harper voted and campaigned for remain, has got issues with fox hunting and had his fingerprints on the "Go Home" vans, though on the final point it may have been May's policy that he was lumbered with as he condemned it when they were taken off the streets. The first point may no longer be relevant as he doesn't strike anyone as the type to roll back the existing deal or do anything slavishly pro-EU as some suspect Hunt might do.

He was once a Whip?

Am I right in thinking Ted Heath was the only whip to become PM?

Yes chief whip for Dave, highly effective too aiui. TSE will know better though as he was more plugged into the Cameroon project than I was.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

I’m at a loss to understand how any MP who professes concern about the civil liberty implications of vaxports hasn’t already rebelled against this measure.

It is an appalling piece of legislation - and it’s already on its third reading.

OnlyLivingBoy

Good header, Cyclefree. This whole idea of stripping people's citizenship is utterly pernicious and Labour should hang its head in shame for its role in it. It creates a second class of citizen, those who by dint of having some connection to another country can have their British citizenship revoked. De facto it's a deeply racist policy. Citizenship is a birthright and no corrupt politician or incompetent bureaucrat should be able to touch it.

Anabobazina

https://www.afro.who.int/news/omicron-spreads-severe-cases-remain-low-south-africa

Data which looked at hospitalizations across South Africa between 14 November and 4 December found that ICU occupancy was only 6.3 % – which is very low compared with the same period when the country was facing the peak linked to the Delta variant in July.

SeaShantyIrish2

On Topic - excellent post, Cyclefree! Your personal perspective adding to your thoughtful and cogent (as per usual) argument.

Thing that immediately occurred to me, was that during WWI the government of Canada used similar provisions to disenfranchise MANY naturalized citizens who had immigrated from Germany and Austria-Hungary, in the leadup to the 1917 general election.

Such broad provisions are just a license for abuse.

Though maybe the courts would prevent this? Not when the same government has legislation in the pipeline to turn judicial review into dead letter.

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

maaarsh said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.

Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.

And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.

Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.

Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs

I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.

I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.

On the flip side, Harper voted and campaigned for remain, has got issues with fox hunting and had his fingerprints on the "Go Home" vans, though on the final point it may have been May's policy that he was lumbered with as he condemned it when they were taken off the streets. The first point may no longer be relevant as he doesn't strike anyone as the type to roll back the existing deal or do anything slavishly pro-EU as some suspect Hunt might do.

He was once a Whip?

Am I right in thinking Ted Heath was the only whip to become PM?

Yes chief whip for Dave, highly effective too aiui. TSE will know better though as he was more plugged into the Cameroon project than I was.

Yes Dave's chief whip after GE2015.

Ran for the leadership in 2019.

I tipped him before you, I see him more of a king maker than king.

Gardenwalker

Thank-you @Cyclefree for this thread.

The bill is utterly toxic and shows that the Tories are absolutely not protectors of liberty.

MaxPB

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

Foxy

NickPalmer said:

FPT: The Survation demographic breakdown is interesting, with the usual caution about subsamples. A big gender gap: Tories ahead by 4 with men, behind by 15 with women. A regional differential: Labour now 30 ahead in the North and 11 in the Midlands, but no progress in Scotland, where they're still stuck on 18. The Tories still miles ahead with Leave voters, but now in 3rd place behind the LibDems in London.

I've not compared with other pollsters. Is this huge gender gap normal? And why do we think it is?

Yes, women are less likely to support the Tories or Brexit, and more likely to be undecided in polls. Usually the female undecided are twice that of males, though just as likely to vote. I think that it reflects open mindedness rather than partisan thinking. As if to say, "I am willing to be persuaded, convince me"

edmundintokyo

Good thread, it's absolutely terrifying.

Makes it very easy to win an election though, people who look like they'd vote for the other side are clearly not conducive to the public good.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

I’m at a loss to understand how any MP who professes concern about the civil liberty implications of vaxports hasn’t already rebelled against this measure.

It is an appalling piece of legislation - and it’s already on its third reading.

Totally agree, it's just completely shocking. Another one dreamt up by Priti without thinking through the consequences because it gets good headlines in The Sun about kicking out people like Begum.

dixiedean

NickPalmer said:

FPT: The Survation demographic breakdown is interesting, with the usual caution about subsamples. A big gender gap: Tories ahead by 4 with men, behind by 15 with women. A regional differential: Labour now 30 ahead in the North and 11 in the Midlands, but no progress in Scotland, where they're still stuck on 18. The Tories still miles ahead with Leave voters, but now in 3rd place behind the LibDems in London.

I've not compared with other pollsters. Is this huge gender gap normal? And why do we think it is?

The PM is a man's man. A particular kind of man. But he wins furious loyalty from a segment.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

” Edmunds said. “I think over the next two months we’re going to see a really rather large wave of Omicron. We are going to get a large number of cases, and it will result in a large numbers of hospitalisations, and unfortunately it will result in a large number of deaths. I’m pretty sure of that.”

TimS

Anabobazina said:

John Edmunds back to his usual role as Dr Doom then. No real surprise there. He says there is “not a shred of evidence” yet plenty of scientists and doctors worldwide have provided early evidence which he has simply dismissed. Now, Edmunds might be right. But he has been very, very wrong several times in the past.

So far this omicron wave feels very much like the first endemic winter season of many, largely infecting the already infected. Lower hospitalisation, lower mortality, not through any intrinsic reduced virulence but because people are no longer naive.

I think it’s going to be okay.

RochdalePioneers

Great piece @Cyclefree . A very good reason why this government must go.

I called it earlier. Geidt was lied to by Boris. This will sink him.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

maaarsh said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.

Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.

And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.

Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.

Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs

I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.

I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.

On the flip side, Harper voted and campaigned for remain, has got issues with fox hunting and had his fingerprints on the "Go Home" vans, though on the final point it may have been May's policy that he was lumbered with as he condemned it when they were taken off the streets. The first point may no longer be relevant as he doesn't strike anyone as the type to roll back the existing deal or do anything slavishly pro-EU as some suspect Hunt might do.

He was once a Whip?

Am I right in thinking Ted Heath was the only whip to become PM?

Yes chief whip for Dave, highly effective too aiui. TSE will know better though as he was more plugged into the Cameroon project than I was.

Yes Dave's chief whip after GE2015.

Ran for the leadership in 2019.

I tipped him before you, I see him more of a king maker than king.

Fair enough, I think if he goes again he may coalesce the anti-lockdowners into a single group around him and 55 is good value for someone who's got a shot at making the final two.

Didn't see your tip earlier, but I'm sure we're not the only people looking at the longer shots tonight!

dixiedean

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

I heard from an esteemed Jewish lawyer a few weeks ago, if you wanted to issue an edict of expulsion of Jews from the UK in the next few years this is the legislation that allows you to do it.

Chilling.

Not to mention the Irish. And other Europeans. And just about anyone who might take the HS of the day's fancy.

Leon

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

FrancisUrquhart

Are England going to be 1-0 down by the morning?

Foxy

edmundintokyo said:

Good thread, it's absolutely terrifying.

Makes it very easy to win an election though, people who look like they'd vote for the other side are clearly not conducive to the public good.

Particularly when you combine it by criminalising "annoying protests", hence making protestors not conducive to the public good.

TheScreamingEagles

When I was at university we had a discussion about the litmus tests for good legislation. One of them absolutely applies here.

Would you like your opponents to have the powers you are creating here?

The answer is hell no, just imagine if Jeremy Corbyn or Diane Abbott had these powers.

JohnO

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

maaarsh said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.

Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.

And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.

Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.

Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs

I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.

I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.

On the flip side, Harper voted and campaigned for remain, has got issues with fox hunting and had his fingerprints on the "Go Home" vans, though on the final point it may have been May's policy that he was lumbered with as he condemned it when they were taken off the streets. The first point may no longer be relevant as he doesn't strike anyone as the type to roll back the existing deal or do anything slavishly pro-EU as some suspect Hunt might do.

He was once a Whip?

Am I right in thinking Ted Heath was the only whip to become PM?

Chief Whip.

John Major certainly served in the whips' office.

TimS

NickPalmer said:

FPT: The Survation demographic breakdown is interesting, with the usual caution about subsamples. A big gender gap: Tories ahead by 4 with men, behind by 15 with women. A regional differential: Labour now 30 ahead in the North and 11 in the Midlands, but no progress in Scotland, where they're still stuck on 18. The Tories still miles ahead with Leave voters, but now in 3rd place behind the LibDems in London.

I've not compared with other pollsters. Is this huge gender gap normal? And why do we think it is?

It was normal with Trump. I suspect women are just less tolerant of clownish behaviour. Perhaps more directly exposed on average to the personal sadness of not seeing elderly family relatives last Christmas too.

Cyclefree

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

Yeah, well, the other day you were saying how much we'll miss Boris because of his humour.

Personally, I don't find anything very funny at the prospect of me, my brother and my 3 children being at risk of losing citizenship of the country we were born in and have lived all or most of our lives in. My Irish father, ironically enough, was born a British citizen and, despite not having to, volunteered to fight for this country during its darkest hour.

He was a better patriot than the so-called patriotic Tory party in its current incarnation, no matter how many bloody flags they drape round themselves. He and my mother's Italian family had a, possibly naive, belief in an essential quiet English decency (the GK Chesterton's 'quiet people who have not spoken yet' sort of decency), one that is not represented either by the Tories or Labour who started the rush to illiberalism on this.

What has happened to that Britain? What has happened to that idea of decency, of not abusing power, of not arrogating power to oneself because look what happened to states and rulers that abandoned all checks and balances?

This matters. It may not be popular. But popularity and 80-seat majorities are not the only things of value. Easy to sneer and declare yourself far too busy or important to read something which will take .... ooh.... 2 whole minutes of your oh so valuable time.

But it's this lack of attention in favour of endless blah blah about the superficial and the immediate which allows this stuff through unscrutinised. The passing of this Bill was not even mentioned in the news. So I wanted to draw attention to it and what it means. That's all.

Pulpstar

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

I heard from an esteemed Jewish lawyer a few weeks ago, if you wanted to issue an edict of expulsion of Jews from the UK in the next few years this is the legislation that allows you to do it.

Chilling.

Not to mention the Irish. And other Europeans. And just about anyone who might take the HS of the day's fancy.

It's not good legislation but I'd trade this theoretical threat to my rights for an EU passport any day of the week.

Andy_JS

"@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 37% (+4)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (-2)
REFUK: 6% (-)"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1469084755010457600

SeaShantyIrish2

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

It's a really odd piece of legislation and probably unnecessary given that the government has won the court cases on Begum anyway. Weirdly it means people like Priti Patel (entitled to Indian citizenship by birthright) are under threat of having their British citizenship removed arbitrarily by politicians.

I'm at a loss to understand why this has been brought forwards given just how many millions of people come under its purview (including me, even before I get a Swiss passport as I'm entitled to an Indian passport by birthright also). I can't think of any country that does this either, we'd be absolutely alone in taking this step.

I heard from an esteemed Jewish lawyer a few weeks ago, if you wanted to issue an edict of expulsion of Jews from the UK in the next few years this is the legislation that allows you to do it.

Chilling.

Not to mention the Irish. And other Europeans. And just about anyone who might take the HS of the day's fancy.

You could de-naturalize members of the Red-Headed League with this perversion of the (English) Bill of Rights

rottenborough

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 37% (+4)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (-2)
REFUK: 6% (-)"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1469084755010457600

Finally, we have the mid terms.

Foxy

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It depends on how long that 3 day doubling persists. It always peaks at some point and never reaches the moon.

It may well peak over the Bank Holidays though, and be exacerbated by staff isolating or stuck abroad. Muggins here is on call 🙄

Andy_JS

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are England going to be 1-0 down by the morning?

55/45 in favour of yes IMO.

Leon

Cyclefree said:

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

Yeah, well, the other day you were saying how much we'll miss Boris because of his humour.

Personally, I don't find anything very funny at the prospect of me, my brother and my 3 children being at risk of losing citizenship of the country we were born in and have lived all or most of our lives in. My Irish father, ironically enough, was born a British citizen and, despite not having to, volunteered to fight for this country during its darkest hour.

He was a better patriot than the so-called patriotic Tory party in its current incarnation, no matter how many bloody flags they drape round themselves. He and my mother's Italian family had a, possibly naive, belief in an essential quiet English decency (the GK Chesterton's 'quiet people who have not spoken yet' sort of decency), one that is not represented either by the Tories or Labour who started the rush to illiberalism on this.

What has happened to that Britain? What has happened to that idea of decency, of not abusing power, of not arrogating power to oneself because look what happened to states and rulers that abandoned all checks and balances?

This matters. It may not be popular. But popularity and 80-seat majorities are not the only things of value. Easy to sneer and declare yourself far too busy or important to read something which will take .... ooh.... 2 whole minutes of your oh so valuable time.

But it's this lack of attention in favour of endless blah blah about the superficial and the immediate which allows this stuff through unscrutinised. The passing of this Bill was not even mentioned in the news. So I wanted to draw attention to it and what it means. That's all.

Cyclefree, your headers are nearly always thoughtful, worthwhile and well written. Even if I disagree with them or find them prolix, they are solid, and sometimes excellent.

I merely think the timing of this serves you ill. Better for a quiet Sunday (if we ever get one again) than the night the prime minister might fall, Russia might invade Ukraine, and western civilisation might collapse thanks to OMIKRON

And best of luck to your daughter, too

another_richard

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

Then they should be dying in the streets in South Africa within days.

We'll see one way or another.

Gardenwalker

To be honest, this legislation is scarier to me than covid right now.

HYUFD

Yougov tonight still has more 2019 Tory voters going RefUK than Labour. 8% of 2019 Tories now back RefUK and 7% back Labour.

Tories still miles ahead with Leaves on 59% to 19% for Labour , 9% for RefUK and just 2% for the LDs. However with Remainers Labour are miles ahead on 49% with the Tories just 1% ahead of the LDs on 16% to 15%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dpbft003db/TheTimes_VI_211209_W.pdf

Foxy

Cyclefree said:

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

Yeah, well, the other day you were saying how much we'll miss Boris because of his humour.

Personally, I don't find anything very funny at the prospect of me, my brother and my 3 children being at risk of losing citizenship of the country we were born in and have lived all or most of our lives in. My Irish father, ironically enough, was born a British citizen and, despite not having to, volunteered to fight for this country during its darkest hour.

He was a better patriot than the so-called patriotic Tory party in its current incarnation, no matter how many bloody flags they drape round themselves. He and my mother's Italian family had a, possibly naive, belief in an essential quiet English decency (the GK Chesterton's 'quiet people who have not spoken yet' sort of decency), one that is not represented either by the Tories or Labour who started the rush to illiberalism on this.

What has happened to that Britain? What has happened to that idea of decency, of not abusing power, of not arrogating power to oneself because look what happened to states and rulers that abandoned all checks and balances?

This matters. It may not be popular. But popularity and 80-seat majorities are not the only things of value. Easy to sneer and declare yourself far too busy or important to read something which will take .... ooh.... 2 whole minutes of your oh so valuable time.

But it's this lack of attention in favour of endless blah blah about the superficial and the immediate which allows this stuff through unscrutinised. The passing of this Bill was not even mentioned in the news. So I wanted to draw attention to it and what it means. That's all.

I think that if you look into it, the idea of British/English decency is just self delusion. Our masters have a long and dishonorable history of shafting people that they find inconvenient.

MaxPB

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

Leon

another_richard said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

Then they should be dying in the streets in South Africa within days.

We'll see one way or another.

"As omicron cases surge, South Africa excess deaths nearly double: report – Fox News"

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1469084443512029189?s=20

Nigelb

Thread on T cell response to Omicron.
Research looking at both vaccinated and previously infected individuals is encouraging.
https://twitter.com/SetteLab/status/1469007626306392064

rcs1000

The issue I have with the ability of government to render people stateless is what if people start doing it to us?

By which I mean, imagine that A Bad Person is in the UK. We wish to deport him (or her) back to her country of citizenship. But said country has now revoked their citizenship.

What happens next?

ping

Just a note; HIV in SA is ~14%, not the 25% posted upthread.

MaxPB

ping said:

Just a note; HIV in SA is ~14%, not the 25% posted upthread.

That's population, I was talking about adults.

FrancisUrquhart

Yes as we are seeing with the early U.K. cases reported on the Zoe app ( in video) the infection time is very rapid at around 48 hours - so conventional track and trace is useless and ideally sub 12 hour lateral flow tests

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1469012346039410697?t=3DM_gNIP9cXkE2hHhDorLA&s=19

Leon

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals

Who the F knows. But Edmunds is not an idiot - he was an early proponent of vaxxing kids when the JCVI were saying no - and if he is fearful of the worst - and it seems he is - then that is a deep concern

dixiedean

another_richard said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

Then they should be dying in the streets in South Africa within days.

We'll see one way or another.

Bill McLaren lives!!

Nigelb

Cyclefree said:

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

…But it's this lack of attention in favour of endless blah blah about the superficial and the immediate which allows this stuff through unscrutinised. The passing of this Bill was not even mentioned in the news. So I wanted to draw attention to it and what it means. That's all.

This.

The chances of doing anything about the bill after it’s enacted are likely nil.
It needs talking about now.

another_richard

Leon said:

another_richard said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

Then they should be dying in the streets in South Africa within days.

We'll see one way or another.

"As omicron cases surge, South Africa excess deaths nearly double: report – Fox News"

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1469084443512029189?s=20

Did you bother to read that report ?

Instead of slavering over the headline ?

Roger

Such is the fate of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. As you say say it's the slippery slope. If more people were interested in their cause then people might start looking at it more sympathetically and start taking it seriously here as well. Being stateless is a terrible thing and it's time it was addressed everywhere.

Foxy

Foxy said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It depends on how long that 3 day doubling persists. It always peaks at some point and never reaches the moon.

It may well peak over the Bank Holidays though, and be exacerbated by staff isolating or stuck abroad. Muggins here is on call 🙄

Incidentally, the BBC website has a tracker that allows you to see how strained your local hospitals are, based on the 4 hour wait. This is an imperfect criterion, but quite a whethervane on where things are headed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59592551

Leicestershire figures are grim.

Cyclefree

Gardenwalker said:

Thank-you @Cyclefree for this thread.

The bill is utterly toxic and shows that the Tories are absolutely not protectors of liberty.

Nor are Labour. It was New Labour which started this.

Leon

another_richard said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

Then they should be dying in the streets in South Africa within days.

We'll see one way or another.

"As omicron cases surge, South Africa excess deaths nearly double: report – Fox News"

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1469084443512029189?s=20

Did you bother to read that report ?

Instead of slavering over the headline ?

Yes, I did, which is why - in my following comment, I said precisely this:


"I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals"

Nigelb

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

Thank-you @Cyclefree for this thread.

The bill is utterly toxic and shows that the Tories are absolutely not protectors of liberty.

Nor are Labour. It was New Labour which started this.

As you say, the issue is not about party politics.
Though some serious noise about this from any of the parties might incline me more favourably towards them.

Flatlander

TheScreamingEagles said:

When I was at university we had a discussion about the litmus tests for good legislation. One of them absolutely applies here.

Would you like your opponents to have the powers you are creating here?

The answer is hell no, just imagine if Jeremy Corbyn or Diane Abbott had these powers.

Even if Starmer et al vote against the legislation now, would they actually get rid of it if elected? Governments don't often vote to reduce their own power.

The best time to stop nonsense like this is before it gets to the statute book.

There's something about the Home Office that turns all the inhabitants into authoritarians, although the present incumbent doesn't seem to have needed much encouragement.

another_richard

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Cyclefree

Leon said:

Cyclefree said:

Leon said:

14 paragraphs, like this

Yeah, well, the other day you were saying how much we'll miss Boris because of his humour.

Personally, I don't find anything very funny at the prospect of me, my brother and my 3 children being at risk of losing citizenship of the country we were born in and have lived all or most of our lives in. My Irish father, ironically enough, was born a British citizen and, despite not having to, volunteered to fight for this country during its darkest hour.

He was a better patriot than the so-called patriotic Tory party in its current incarnation, no matter how many bloody flags they drape round themselves. He and my mother's Italian family had a, possibly naive, belief in an essential quiet English decency (the GK Chesterton's 'quiet people who have not spoken yet' sort of decency), one that is not represented either by the Tories or Labour who started the rush to illiberalism on this.

What has happened to that Britain? What has happened to that idea of decency, of not abusing power, of not arrogating power to oneself because look what happened to states and rulers that abandoned all checks and balances?

This matters. It may not be popular. But popularity and 80-seat majorities are not the only things of value. Easy to sneer and declare yourself far too busy or important to read something which will take .... ooh.... 2 whole minutes of your oh so valuable time.

But it's this lack of attention in favour of endless blah blah about the superficial and the immediate which allows this stuff through unscrutinised. The passing of this Bill was not even mentioned in the news. So I wanted to draw attention to it and what it means. That's all.

Cyclefree, your headers are nearly always thoughtful, worthwhile and well written. Even if I disagree with them or find them prolix, they are solid, and sometimes excellent.

I merely think the timing of this serves you ill. Better for a quiet Sunday (if we ever get one again) than the night the prime minister might fall, Russia might invade Ukraine, and western civilisation might collapse thanks to OMIKRON

And best of luck to your daughter, too

Thank you.

I do not decide the timing of when my headers are published. I just write and send them in.

Whenever they are published on a Sunday the BTL comments invariably turn to cricket or sport of some kind.

ping

MaxPB said:

ping said:

Just a note; HIV in SA is ~14%, not the 25% posted upthread.

That's population, I was talking about adults.

Fair enough - sorry I misread your post.

25% is fking insane. Thank god we now have incredible treatments.

FrancisUrquhart

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

If it really is 2x as transmissible as delta, 3 months the wave will have been and gone.

Roger

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 37% (+4)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (-2)
REFUK: 6% (-)"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1469084755010457600

Isn't that the first Yougov to give a Labour lead?

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

Any antivaxxer over 60 should now be soiling themselves. Such is life

slade

Lib Dems gain a seat on Keynsham Town Council with nearly 50% of the vote in a 5 way contest.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

Any antivaxxer over 60 should now be soiling themselves. Such is life

Pray to whatever god you believe in.....

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

If it really is 2x as transmissible as delta, 3 months the wave will have been and gone.

The Japanese estimate was 4.2X as transmissible as Delta. Tho the criteria vary between these studies

MaxPB

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals

Who the F knows. But Edmunds is not an idiot - he was an early proponent of vaxxing kids when the JCVI were saying no - and if he is fearful of the worst - and it seems he is - then that is a deep concern

A lot of the "it's possibly mild" stuff is coming from early European data tracking those early Omicron infections in vaccinated people.

This could be the first endemic version of COVID, sadly for us it hit about two months before we had all of our boosters done. Though I'm still not certain it won't end up being a bad cold for people with two doses or natural immunity. That thread about antibodies speaks to what my uni friends said at the reunion dinner, the tough part of training the immune system is always version one, version two is not so bad and by version three it's got manageable symptoms.

another_richard

Leon said:

another_richard said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

Then they should be dying in the streets in South Africa within days.

We'll see one way or another.

"As omicron cases surge, South Africa excess deaths nearly double: report – Fox News"

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1469084443512029189?s=20

Did you bother to read that report ?

Instead of slavering over the headline ?

Yes, I did, which is why - in my following comment, I said precisely this:


"I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals"

It will be impossible to keep an increase in deaths from the official data nor from the South African media reports of them.

MaxPB

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

If it really is 2x as transmissible as delta, 3 months the wave will have been and gone.

Nah, they're doing 6-8 weeks between first and seconds now.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

If it really is 2x as transmissible as delta, 3 months the wave will have been and gone.

Nah, they're doing 6-8 weeks between first and seconds now.

I thought that was sub optimal.

Roger

NickPalmer said:

FPT: The Survation demographic breakdown is interesting, with the usual caution about subsamples. A big gender gap: Tories ahead by 4 with men, behind by 15 with women. A regional differential: Labour now 30 ahead in the North and 11 in the Midlands, but no progress in Scotland, where they're still stuck on 18. The Tories still miles ahead with Leave voters, but now in 3rd place behind the LibDems in London.

I've not compared with other pollsters. Is this huge gender gap normal? And why do we think it is?

Women are brighter than men?

another_richard

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yes as we are seeing with the early U.K. cases reported on the Zoe app ( in video) the infection time is very rapid at around 48 hours - so conventional track and trace is useless and ideally sub 12 hour lateral flow tests

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1469012346039410697?t=3DM_gNIP9cXkE2hHhDorLA&s=19

If Omicron's infection time is much quicker does the rest of the infection lifespan also alter ?

another_richard

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

I am somewhat amused by the irony of the threat of omicron appearing at the time of the anniversary of the first vaccinations.

In effect people, at least in the UK, have had a year to make the choice of whether to get vaccinated and at least six months to get it done.

Now the vaccination door slowly comes down from the ceiling.

There's a final brief opportunity to get through by an immediate vaccination but afterwards the anti-vaxxers are trapped in the locked room with omicron.

Too late for a antivaxxers...even if you got vaccinated tomorrow, need to wait 3 months for 2nd and another 3 months for 3rd. 1 dose definitely doesn't do much.

If it really is 2x as transmissible as delta, 3 months the wave will have been and gone.

I'd still rather have one dose of vaccine working in me than none.

Not all people are the same.

A sick oldie might need all three but for the young and healthy one will still do them much good.

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - Jussie Smollett: Actor found guilty of lying about attack
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59599142

Leon

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals

Who the F knows. But Edmunds is not an idiot - he was an early proponent of vaxxing kids when the JCVI were saying no - and if he is fearful of the worst - and it seems he is - then that is a deep concern

A lot of the "it's possibly mild" stuff is coming from early European data tracking those early Omicron infections in vaccinated people.

This could be the first endemic version of COVID, sadly for us it hit about two months before we had all of our boosters done. Though I'm still not certain it won't end up being a bad cold for people with two doses or natural immunity. That thread about antibodies speaks to what my uni friends said at the reunion dinner, the tough part of training the immune system is always version one, version two is not so bad and by version three it's got manageable symptoms.

Yes, indeed. and I hope you are right

However we have quite a lot of antivaxxers who are also vulnerable - over 50, obese, etc. Not as many as, say Germany, but enough to cause a fuck of a lot of hassle for the NHS

How many non-vaxxed are in this bracket? 5m? 3m? I remember someone crunched the numbers months ago and it was near 5m, but my memory could be faulty

If OMICRON is half as nasty as Delta (erring on the side of optimism) then given its intense infectiousness we can expect nearly everyone to get it and we can expect 5% to go to hospital (not 10% or more like Delta)

5% of 5m is 250,000 in hospital over the winter. That's a lot. How many dead? 25.000? 50.000? And in a much shorter space of time than Delta

And then there are the breakthrough infections, the kids, the possibility the therapeutics don't work, and so on

It is an unnerving prospect. I fervently pray your optimism is justified, as I say

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals

Who the F knows. But Edmunds is not an idiot - he was an early proponent of vaxxing kids when the JCVI were saying no - and if he is fearful of the worst - and it seems he is - then that is a deep concern

A lot of the "it's possibly mild" stuff is coming from early European data tracking those early Omicron infections in vaccinated people.

This could be the first endemic version of COVID, sadly for us it hit about two months before we had all of our boosters done. Though I'm still not certain it won't end up being a bad cold for people with two doses or natural immunity. That thread about antibodies speaks to what my uni friends said at the reunion dinner, the tough part of training the immune system is always version one, version two is not so bad and by version three it's got manageable symptoms.

Yes, indeed. and I hope you are right

However we have quite a lot of antivaxxers who are also vulnerable - over 50, obese, etc. Not as many as, say Germany, but enough to cause a fuck of a lot of hassle for the NHS

How many non-vaxxed are in this bracket? 5m? 3m? I remember someone crunched the numbers months ago and it was near 5m, but my memory could be faulty

If OMICRON is half as nasty as Delta (erring on the side of optimism) then given its intense infectiousness we can expect nearly everyone to get it and we can expect 5% to go to hospital (not 10% or more like Delta)

5% of 5m is 250,000 in hospital over the winter. That's a lot. How many dead? 25.000? 50.000? And in a much shorter space of time than Delta

And then there are the breakthrough infections, the kids, the possibility the therapeutics don't work, and so on

It is an unnerving prospect. I fervently pray your optimism is justified, as I say

70% of current cases are unvaccinated.....

Bournville

I wrote here a few months ago that I thought Johnson's best strategy was to leave with his head held high as soon as possible. He could argue that he had faced the biggest challenges since WW2 - a terminally broken Parliament, the withdrawal from the EU, and the Covid-19 pandemic - and won, while leaving the messy consequences of those victories to a more details-oriented successor of his choosing. Plus, with his reputation as a winner still mostly intact, he could still dominate the party as a kingmaker from the backbenches if he wanted, or even return as leader some day.

I think now those options have collapsed for him. Those messy consequences are piling up very quickly and are not longer deniable, so he's going to get the blame even if he resigns today; that's going to seriously damage his reputation in the long term, yet more than now. He can still probably rely on a lucrative contract with the Telegraph, but politically once he leaves Downing Street, he's finished. Yesterday's man.

So paradoxically this weakness means he's incentivised to cling on no matter what, instead of seriously looking at dignified exits. He will not resign and screw himself, he'll hold on and dare the MPs to try a VoNC - and I don't think the MPs have the balls to do that as things stand.

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals

Who the F knows. But Edmunds is not an idiot - he was an early proponent of vaxxing kids when the JCVI were saying no - and if he is fearful of the worst - and it seems he is - then that is a deep concern

A lot of the "it's possibly mild" stuff is coming from early European data tracking those early Omicron infections in vaccinated people.

This could be the first endemic version of COVID, sadly for us it hit about two months before we had all of our boosters done. Though I'm still not certain it won't end up being a bad cold for people with two doses or natural immunity. That thread about antibodies speaks to what my uni friends said at the reunion dinner, the tough part of training the immune system is always version one, version two is not so bad and by version three it's got manageable symptoms.

Yes, indeed. and I hope you are right

However we have quite a lot of antivaxxers who are also vulnerable - over 50, obese, etc. Not as many as, say Germany, but enough to cause a fuck of a lot of hassle for the NHS

How many non-vaxxed are in this bracket? 5m? 3m? I remember someone crunched the numbers months ago and it was near 5m, but my memory could be faulty

If OMICRON is half as nasty as Delta (erring on the side of optimism) then given its intense infectiousness we can expect nearly everyone to get it and we can expect 5% to go to hospital (not 10% or more like Delta)

5% of 5m is 250,000 in hospital over the winter. That's a lot. How many dead? 25.000? 50.000? And in a much shorter space of time than Delta

And then there are the breakthrough infections, the kids, the possibility the therapeutics don't work, and so on

It is an unnerving prospect. I fervently pray your optimism is justified, as I say

70% of current cases are unvaccinated.....

Do you have any idea how many unvaxxed Brits are in the "vulnerable" bracket? Over 50? Diabetic? Obese? Etc?

In the face of Omicron that now seems a highly significant figure (in the UK and beyond), because unless they can hide away completely, they are going to catch this

Flatlander

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Grim grim news

Paradoxically, this stuff might just save Boris, for now. We are going into a terrifying storm


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/daily-omicron-cases-in-uk-could-exceed-60000-by-christmas-sage-adviser-says


"Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.

"Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”"

A quarter of South African adults have got HIV/AIDS as well. I'm not sure South Africa is a very good comparison to the UK. On the flip side the CDC has said it believes Omicron is milder than Delta and they're basing that on early US data which will be very high quality and analogous to the UK.

He's right tho. Logically. Even if Omicron is half as virulent as Delta (in terms of hospitalisations) it doesn't really matter because its speed of spread is so enormously greater. It doubles every 2-3 days, so you will have the same hospitalisations, just 2 days later, as Delta. And then on, and on. And it evades the vaccines, certainly to some extent, possibly to a great extent

We are in a deal of trouble. Fuck I wish it weren't so, but we are. Question is whether they even bother with lockdown in the face of this storm

It is what it is, don't forget that starting from a lower severity base means that even with lesser severity reduction by vaccines the overall vaccine efficacy might be the same for Omicron wrt severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Certainly with Delta two doses was enough to keep the lights on and lockdown away. Three doses may have enough efficacy to get everyone that has had all three an infection of very low severity.

I just don't trust any of the data from SA, at least not enough to apply it to the UK. We need to wait and see what the UK and US data says in two weeks.

I don't trust the data from SA either, but it is all we have. So I am treating all of it with highly interested skepticism

But this means ALL of it. Just as I don't entirely trust that "excess deaths data" I just posted - tho it is interesting and worth noting - nor do I trust the "oh it is mild" mantra coming from some hospitals

Who the F knows. But Edmunds is not an idiot - he was an early proponent of vaxxing kids when the JCVI were saying no - and if he is fearful of the worst - and it seems he is - then that is a deep concern

A lot of the "it's possibly mild" stuff is coming from early European data tracking those early Omicron infections in vaccinated people.

This could be the first endemic version of COVID, sadly for us it hit about two months before we had all of our boosters done. Though I'm still not certain it won't end up being a bad cold for people with two doses or natural immunity. That thread about antibodies speaks to what my uni friends said at the reunion dinner, the tough part of training the immune system is always version one, version two is not so bad and by version three it's got manageable symptoms.

Yes, indeed. and I hope you are right

However we have quite a lot of antivaxxers who are also vulnerable - over 50, obese, etc. Not as many as, say Germany, but enough to cause a fuck of a lot of hassle for the NHS

How many non-vaxxed are in this bracket? 5m? 3m? I remember someone crunched the numbers months ago and it was near 5m, but my memory could be faulty

If OMICRON is half as nasty as Delta (erring on the side of optimism) then given its intense infectiousness we can expect nearly everyone to get it and we can expect 5% to go to hospital (not 10% or more like Delta)

5% of 5m is 250,000 in hospital over the winter. That's a lot. How many dead? 25.000? 50.000? And in a much shorter space of time than Delta

And then there are the breakthrough infections, the kids, the possibility the therapeutics don't work, and so on

It is an unnerving prospect. I fervently pray your optimism is justified, as I say

70% of current cases are unvaccinated.....

Is that not mostly because they are yoof, some of whom haven't even been offered a vaccine?

I'd quite like to see the vaxxed / unvaxxed case ratio split by age group. Do we have that anywhere?

FrancisUrquhart

Bournville said:

I wrote here a few months ago that I thought Johnson's best strategy was to leave with his head held high as soon as possible. He could argue that he had faced the biggest challenges since WW2 - a terminally broken Parliament, the withdrawal from the EU, and the Covid-19 pandemic - and won, while leaving the messy consequences of those victories to a more details-oriented successor of his choosing. Plus, with his reputation as a winner still mostly intact, he could still dominate the party as a kingmaker from the backbenches if he wanted, or even return as leader some day.

I think now those options have collapsed for him. Those messy consequences are piling up very quickly and are not longer deniable, so he's going to get the blame even if he resigns today; that's going to seriously damage his reputation in the long term, yet more than now. He can still probably rely on a lucrative contract with the Telegraph, but politically once he leaves Downing Street, he's finished. Yesterday's man.

So paradoxically this weakness means he's incentivised to cling on no matter what, instead of seriously looking at dignified exits. He will not resign and screw himself, he'll hold on and dare the MPs to try a VoNC - and I don't think the MPs have the balls to do that as things stand.

He had the perfect escape in the summer. Vaccination programme going well, cases low and he could played the I never recovered from long covid, i have a toddler plus a baby on the way, i just can't do it all with long covid