Just dropped in to congratulate @Cyclefree on one of the best thread headers on this site for a very long time.
I am ashamed, as a Liberal Democrat supporter, that the party of which I was once a member and activist was complicit in this erosion of individual rights, the removal of appropriate scrutiny and accountability and another step in this country's growing centralisation.
If the LDs want a USP at the next election, rolling back the State and returning power both to locally elected and accountable authorities as well as Parliament but, more important, to the individual citizen would be a good start.
Thanks again for a profoundly uncomfortable start to the day.
Sadly Labour is the party least likely to deliver anything like it. They are centralists to their core - which you can derive directly from socialist or social democratic thinking. Just remember Blair and his avalanche of targets and league tables and government funds that councils and other organisations that needed funding had to bid for, and only got subject to Whitehall approval and conditions
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
Tories to come third might be a good bet if anyone is offering it.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are still on 59% with Leavers and the LDs are on just 2% with Leavers, then the Tories won't come third in North Shropshire. Given Shropshire was 57% Leave they might even hold it
Did you multiply 0.59 by 0.57, just to see what the answer is, before making that post?
The Tories were also still ahead of the LDs with Remainers too on the poll.
On UNS the Tories would get 46% still in North Shropshire if Yougov is correct which would likely be enough to hold the seat given the division between the Labour and LD vote
Why I am not (yet) concerned about Omicron and neither should you in two charts
World cases and deaths. Previous case waves have been followed by death waves lagged by 2 weeks. The current case wave started on October 18th. There is no resultant death wave. Unless the data is reallllllllllly lagged the death wave "should" have started at the begining of November. It hasn't.
Indeed. Which is pretty much exactly what the South Africans have been saying. Similarly, the Batswana.
While this is encouraging, we shouldn't forget that most of the world is seeing waves of Delta, not omicron (at least yet).
Indeed, although @Alistair was specifically looking at countries where omicron is dominant – that was his point.
With regards to Boris and Geidtgate. In response to a question by SKS he told the house on 28th April this year that he paid for the Downing Street refurb personally.
That isn't an error. That's a lie. He knew that was not true. And openly lied about it.
I'm losing track. Is that two or three clear cut breaches of the ministerial code we can prove over the same issue?
If Geidt quits saying he has been misled then this could be over quickly. No Prime Minister can survive endless "Did you Lie Prime Minister" questions when the answer is so clearly yes, repeatedly, to cover up vast sums of dark money being spent on wallpaper so NutNut and Tory staffers could have illegal parties.
And then we have DomCum doing his "ask me anything" show at lunchtime. Who knows what he will spew out. And the problem for the Tories isn't that you can dismiss him, can't be trusted over Barnard Castle because he always has proof...
What a ridiculous thing to be brought down on. It’s not as if he even owns the sodding flat. Hopefully he’ll be out of there soon.
The irony is that Johnson is basically going to go "for being in possession of an offensive wife".
Every single one of the stupid disasters which are ushering him out the door go straight back to Princess Nut Nut. Wallpaper - Carrie Afghan animal taxis - Carrie Parties - Carrie (at least one with her present).
I wouldn't be shocked if the current lockdown lite was her brainwave too, to try and move the media story on. I think this may well be what finishes him - Tory MPs whose patience was wearing thin anyway aren't seeing the funny side of his nuking the country to change some bad headlines.
She's done a lot of damage in other areas too - much of the economic self-harm in the name of greenery is her agenda too. Tory MPs know that too.
Had he not listened to Carrie, Boris might have been far less self distructive over the last couple of years, and actually been quite a good prime minister - it's all gone wrong for him since he decided to prioritise the desires of one of the nastiest bit of work to ever get near power.
He's had people giving him sound advice (Cummings for all he's a disreputable nutter was right about a lot of stuff - I'm fairly sure it's him we have to thank for Kate Bingham doing the vaccine procurement), but he sided with Carrie every time.
The inevitable divorce proceedings once they are out of no10 should provide some light entertainment anyway...
Woman-blaming. Edit: Even if you yourself don't intend that, it reads very easily as that and will upset half the population so is not a good argument in politics. And in any case, every single case, he only had to say no. He's the PM. She isn't.
I had a bit to do with lobbying over the Afghan pet rescue operation (I'm an animal welfare campaigner, so it's what I do), and have good reason to think that Carrie wasn't involved in that particular decision. In general I agree with Carnyx - it's pathetic for loyalists to defend the PM on the basis that "he's a great guy really, so it must be his wife that persuaded him". If you want to be supportive, fine, defend him directly, as I did with Corbyn.
If you knew it was a "pet rescue operation" why did you get involved in it?
Where was the animal welfare deficit in having the animals humanely put down, and attention turned to friends of this country who may be poor and brown but are human and at risk of (indee, now victims of) torture and murder? I don't think "I do animal welfare" is an excuse for this.
I am not sure if my view is shared, but when you go and do something and come back an hour later you are not sure if the Prime Minister is still in office
The change since the Paterson idiotic decision has sent an earthquake through politics and in such a short time
And so easily avoidable. It's all piled up so quickly the PM can't dig himself out. He needs help, and I'm not sure where it's going to come from.
Come back Dom, all is forgiven?
It's unlikely Dom will return to his crypt until Johnson family friends and sycophants have been well and trully dispatched.
In the immortal words of Leon ' Ask not for whom the bell tolls Mr Johnson. It tolls for thee.....'
Is there a new Leon? The one I remember, at least until a day or two back, says that Boris is the consummate political genius
BoJo deserves credit for appointing a copetent person to oversee the vaccine programme, and more importantly for leaving her alone to get on with it. Brown would have insisted on micro-meddling. A case from Boris of masterly inactivity.
He's good at that. Too good.
It's knowing when to interfere that makes a good PM.
One for RCS100, just because I know he likes to compare Bremen's vaccination rate with the lowest rates in Germany.
Bremen officially has just 2.5% adults (18+) unvaccinated. Surrounding Lower Saxony has 14.9% adults unvaccinated.
I'm just not buying it. There isn't that much difference between tiny Bremen and surrounding Lower Saxony. Bremen is more urban, and has more immigrants. Maybe they made more effort to reach people to get them vaccinated, but not enough to make that big a difference.
Then look at the numbers for 12-17 year olds. Bremen has vaccinated 57.7% and Lower Saxony 62.4%. It doesn't make any sense that Bremen would have quite a lot more adults vaccinated and yet fewer teenagers vaccinated.
Then look at the incidence rates, death rates and hospitalisation rates. All a bit worse in Bremen than in surrounding Lower Saxony. If there were really 6 times as many unvaccinated adults per capita in Lower Saxony you would expect to see it show up at some point in these stats.
Bremen's 97.5% adults with at least one shot isn't right. The real figure is no doubt much closer to Lower Saxony's.
With regards to Boris and Geidtgate. In response to a question by SKS he told the house on 28th April this year that he paid for the Downing Street refurb personally.
That isn't an error. That's a lie. He knew that was not true. And openly lied about it.
I'm losing track. Is that two or three clear cut breaches of the ministerial code we can prove over the same issue?
If Geidt quits saying he has been misled then this could be over quickly. No Prime Minister can survive endless "Did you Lie Prime Minister" questions when the answer is so clearly yes, repeatedly, to cover up vast sums of dark money being spent on wallpaper so NutNut and Tory staffers could have illegal parties.
And then we have DomCum doing his "ask me anything" show at lunchtime. Who knows what he will spew out. And the problem for the Tories isn't that you can dismiss him, can't be trusted over Barnard Castle because he always has proof...
What a ridiculous thing to be brought down on. It’s not as if he even owns the sodding flat. Hopefully he’ll be out of there soon.
The irony is that Johnson is basically going to go "for being in possession of an offensive wife".
Every single one of the stupid disasters which are ushering him out the door go straight back to Princess Nut Nut. Wallpaper - Carrie Afghan animal taxis - Carrie Parties - Carrie (at least one with her present).
I wouldn't be shocked if the current lockdown lite was her brainwave too, to try and move the media story on. I think this may well be what finishes him - Tory MPs whose patience was wearing thin anyway aren't seeing the funny side of his nuking the country to change some bad headlines.
She's done a lot of damage in other areas too - much of the economic self-harm in the name of greenery is her agenda too. Tory MPs know that too.
Had he not listened to Carrie, Boris might have been far less self distructive over the last couple of years, and actually been quite a good prime minister - it's all gone wrong for him since he decided to prioritise the desires of one of the nastiest bit of work to ever get near power.
He's had people giving him sound advice (Cummings for all he's a disreputable nutter was right about a lot of stuff - I'm fairly sure it's him we have to thank for Kate Bingham doing the vaccine procurement), but he sided with Carrie every time.
The inevitable divorce proceedings once they are out of no10 should provide some light entertainment anyway...
Woman-blaming. Edit: Even if you yourself don't intend that, it reads very easily as that and will upset half the population so is not a good argument in politics. And in any case, every single case, he only had to say no. He's the PM. She isn't.
I had a bit to do with lobbying over the Afghan pet rescue operation (I'm an animal welfare campaigner, so it's what I do), and have good reason to think that Carrie wasn't involved in that particular decision. In general I agree with Carnyx - it's pathetic for loyalists to defend the PM on the basis that "he's a great guy really, so it must be his wife that persuaded him". If you want to be supportive, fine, defend him directly, as I did with Corbyn.
If you knew it was a "pet rescue operation" why did you get involved in it?
Where was the animal welfare deficit in having the animals humanely put down, and attention turned to friends of this country who may be poor and brown but are human and at risk of (indee, now victims of) torture and murder? I don't think "I do animal welfare" is an excuse for this.
NP's job to lobby for non-human animals.
But it's gmt's job to set priorities and assess resources. Not NP's job or expertise or information.
Just saw that Germany had 103K cases yesterday and their upward trend doesn't seem to be slowing yet. On the other hand the measures in Austria have had a massive impact and they now have case rates lower than the UK.
What I generally find interesting about cases in the UK is that our numbers have been oscillating around a similar level ever since the kids went back to school after Summer. We have not seen exponential growth like experienced in other European countries. Is this purely because we opened up earlier to accept higher levels of cases in the Summer and early Autumn?
David Gauke @DavidGauke · 54m . @wesstreeting struck exactly the right tone on @BBCr4today . Has to be said that Labour coming across as grown-up and responsible on tackling omicron.
===
Exactly the kind of response that winds the left up about Streeting.
Oh, there's no doubt that the left hate Streeting. I remember that clearly when we were on the council together.
His answers to the question about the by-election were interesting; you could really hear the pull-and-push between his Labour Party tribalism, having spent almost his entire life within it, and his centrist views and awareness of how defeating the Tories is more important than left-wing purism.
That bit of the interview was piffle. If the two major parties are going to insist on retaining FPTP, it's insulting the intelligence of the voters to say that Labour have to fight for every vote in every seat as a matter of principle (which is what I think he was arguing just before I turned the radio off), since that principle renders the votes of a large slug of the elecorate useless.
Yes, his answers were poor, but he's bright enough to understand the underlying tension. But Streeting is a party animal (in the political sense!) and shares the failing of many politicians in that he'll always put party interest before public interest. We saw this several times very clearly on the council.
Which is ironic given the backing he gave to Javid regarding the coming vote on Plan B - but then of course both Starmer and Streeting believe that this positioning is in their own party's best interest.
I'm sure. Just waiting for SKS to show he's definitely up to it which is looking more and more likely. He's a bit plodding but I think the public will welcome plodding after the Johnson fiasco.
Thanks to Carlotta and the others for the tip-off about Streeting's R4 Today interview - it was well worth a listen. Starts at 8:14am, so 2:14 into the iPlayer episode, for anyone interested.
Lady Macbeth etc etc – the sexist tropes on PB really are something to behold.
The funny thing is, you are the one who is doing it: how dare you besmirch the reputation of a fragrant member of the weaker sex, is the underlying thought. Here in the 21st century we find it possible to judge people without reference to gender.
Absolute egregious sexism to blame Carrie for Bozza's failures.
That he is an incompetent fool is down to him and him alone.
Nothing to do with his wife FFS.
Rubbish. Are we not allowed to dissect his folly? A key part of it being his thraldom to the revoltingly nasty, selfish bit of work he is married to.
Have you ever met this lady that you are so horrible and mean about?
I suspect the answer is – no.
If it turns out to be true (as alleged) that she successfully talked him into to prioritising flying animals out of Kabul when there were humans who could've been taken instead, and some of those people have subsequently been tortured or killed by the Taliban, then both of them deserve all the opprobrium they get or have got.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
The telling moment is when people start wrongly self reporting their last vote - eg 2019 Tory voters reporting as having voted for someone else, or indeed 2016 Brexit voters saying they voted remain. That’s when you know a party or cause has become unfashionable,
Now how much 'evil councillor' effect there is I don't know but:
1) Boris is remarkably loyal to family members who cause him trouble - see Stanley and Jo 2) Carrie has been pregnant for most of the year 3) Carrie suffered a miscarriage not long before that
How much influence she tries to have I don't know but I'm pretty sure Boris has been disinclined to say No to her during 2021.
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
Tories to come third might be a good bet if anyone is offering it.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are still on 59% with Leavers and the LDs are on just 2% with Leavers, then the Tories won't come third in North Shropshire. Given Shropshire was 57% Leave they might even hold it as Labour take more of the anti Tory vote in this strongly Leave seat than expected
I'm expecting a Tory hold, HYUFD. They are certainly value at odds against. I know the area fairly well. It's not very far from where I now live. As you and others have pointed out, it is Leave Central and I doubt the voters there pay much attention to parties and wallpaper in Downing Street.
I would nevertheless be interested in a bet on Tories to come third. This is because if they do lose, it will not be because of voter affinity for Labour or LD parties with which they have nothing in common. It will be because of a catastrophic collapse in the Tory vote, in which case they are as likely to finish third (or lower) as second.
I'd need decent odds -say 5/1 or better - but it might be an interesting punt.
Absolute egregious sexism to blame Carrie for Bozza's failures.
That he is an incompetent fool is down to him and him alone.
Nothing to do with his wife FFS.
Rubbish. Are we not allowed to dissect his folly? A key part of it being his thraldom to the revoltingly nasty, selfish bit of work he is married to.
Have you ever met this lady that you are so horrible and mean about?
I suspect the answer is – no.
Um, no. Nor Stalin or Lady Macbeth or Clytemnestra, but I have valid and evidence-based views about them too.
Says a lot that two of those are fictional characters. QED.
You really are having a bad morning are you not? You have just made another cast iron point against yourself. You say you can't have opinions about people you don't know. I deliberately cite a mix with fictional characters in it to make the point that you can opinions about people who are by definition unknowable because non-existent. You say Ooh, a heffalump trap, I must jump in to that.
Lady Macbeth etc etc – the sexist tropes on PB really are something to behold.
The funny thing is, you are the one who is doing it: how dare you besmirch the reputation of a fragrant member of the weaker sex, is the underlying thought. Here in the 21st century we find it possible to judge people without reference to gender.
Absolute rubbish.
You and your fellow travellers are blaming the failings of a useless prime minister on his wife.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Lady Macbeth etc etc – the sexist tropes on PB really are something to behold.
The funny thing is, you are the one who is doing it: how dare you besmirch the reputation of a fragrant member of the weaker sex, is the underlying thought. Here in the 21st century we find it possible to judge people without reference to gender.
Absolute rubbish.
You and your fellow travellers are blaming the failings of a useless prime minister on his wife.
It's a truly pathetic spectacle.
No, i am blaming the useless PM for his own failings, and saying that one of them is being led by his dick.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
You do realise that Wes Streeting was brought up in a council estate in Stepney? If you actually visited London and spent some time here, your pathetic prejudice might ease somewhat.
Now how much 'evil councillor' effect there is I don't know but:
1) Boris is remarkably loyal to family members who cause him trouble - see Stanley and Jo 2) Carrie has been pregnant for most of the year 3) Carrie suffered a miscarriage not long before that
How much influence she tries to have I don't know but I'm pretty sure Boris has been disinclined to say No to her during 2021.
And there is no terror mightier than a man's own wife. Even if you are PM.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
Musing over @Cyclefree's excellent header and the similar authoritarian criminalisation of even peaceful protest. Add in the widespread support for harsh measures on antivaxxers and restrictions on social activity and it leads to a pretty inescapable conclusion.
This is not a country that values individual freedom or liberty. It likes the smack of firm government, though obviously aimed at "others".
I generally agree with you on many things @Foxy, and certainly regarding the citizenship and protest bills, which are very dangerous.
However, I see placing restrictions on those who choose to remain unvaccinated as akin to restrictions on those who choose to smoke. Indeed in may ways I have more sympathies for the smokers - theirs is a hard to kick addiction. The unvaccinated in contrast are making a selfish choice - I have little sympathy for them.
Personally I don't particularly have problems with vaccination passports. It is a reasonable public health measure, but in polling there is widespread support for much harsher measures still. Usually for other people of course!
I think though this is a much more authoritarian country, and probably always was, than we like to mythologise.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Interesting observation on a thread on the spread... https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157773464125446 The UK is sequencing between 5000 and 8000 viruses everyday. Although turnaround times are fast, necessary processing delays permit a view that's basically lagged by ~7 days. Today, I have a strong view of Dec 1 data in @GISAID, but Dec 2 has much less data available to me. 3/21
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
Absolute egregious sexism to blame Carrie for Bozza's failures.
That he is an incompetent fool is down to him and him alone.
Nothing to do with his wife FFS.
Rubbish. Are we not allowed to dissect his folly? A key part of it being his thraldom to the revoltingly nasty, selfish bit of work he is married to.
Have you ever met this lady that you are so horrible and mean about?
I suspect the answer is – no.
Um, no. Nor Stalin or Lady Macbeth or Clytemnestra, but I have valid and evidence-based views about them too.
Says a lot that two of those are fictional characters. QED.
You really are having a bad morning are you not? You have just made another cast iron point against yourself. You say you can't have opinions about people you don't know. I deliberately cite a mix with fictional characters in it to make the point that you can opinions about people who are by definition unknowable because non-existent. You say Ooh, a heffalump trap, I must jump in to that.
It is you that is having a bad morning, by rattling out sexist tropes. You are old enough and intelligent enough to know better. A disappointing performance from you today. Take some time off to consider how you can improve.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
All it requires is for a rogue country (Panama? Liberia?) to offer passports for cash to anyone who applies. Then we would all be theoretically entitled to the citizenship of another country and at risk of losing our UK rights.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
- “Might Tory MPs stop fretting about Xmas parties, listen instead to these words from David Davis – “an uncivilised ….. removal of the rights of people” – and do the right thing for a change while they still can?”
There was some chat earlier in the week about tfl. Any inside track on the horse trading? With the new restrictions it’s very difficult for me to believe that they won’t be given enough cash to see them through, unless anyone hearing to the contrary?
One for RCS100, just because I know he likes to compare Bremen's vaccination rate with the lowest rates in Germany.
Bremen officially has just 2.5% adults (18+) unvaccinated. Surrounding Lower Saxony has 14.9% adults unvaccinated.
I'm just not buying it. There isn't that much difference between tiny Bremen and surrounding Lower Saxony. Bremen is more urban, and has more immigrants. Maybe they made more effort to reach people to get them vaccinated, but not enough to make that big a difference.
Then look at the numbers for 12-17 year olds. Bremen has vaccinated 57.7% and Lower Saxony 62.4%. It doesn't make any sense that Bremen would have quite a lot more adults vaccinated and yet fewer teenagers vaccinated.
Then look at the incidence rates, death rates and hospitalisation rates. All a bit worse in Bremen than in surrounding Lower Saxony. If there were really 6 times as many unvaccinated adults per capita in Lower Saxony you would expect to see it show up at some point in these stats.
Bremen's 97.5% adults with at least one shot isn't right. The real figure is no doubt much closer to Lower Saxony's.
Do they know how many people are in Bremen or the surrounding areas?
In London the population will have changed by several hundreds and thousands, if not millions both up and down over the last 2 years. That alone is going to give perhaps 5-10% error rates changing over time if they used the start of 2020 population numbers and I am not sure the official data will have kept good track of the numbers since then.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
Tories to come third might be a good bet if anyone is offering it.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are still on 59% with Leavers and the LDs are on just 2% with Leavers, then the Tories won't come third in North Shropshire. Given Shropshire was 57% Leave they might even hold it as Labour take more of the anti Tory vote in this strongly Leave seat than expected
I'm expecting a Tory hold, HYUFD. They are certainly value at odds against. I know the area fairly well. It's not very far from where I now live. As you and others have pointed out, it is Leave Central and I doubt the voters there pay much attention to parties and wallpaper in Downing Street.
I would nevertheless be interested in a bet on Tories to come third. This is because if they do lose, it will not be because of voter affinity for Labour or LD parties with which they have nothing in common. It will be because of a catastrophic collapse in the Tory vote, in which case they are as likely to finish third (or lower) as second.
I'd need decent odds -say 5/1 or better - but it might be an interesting punt.
Remember Hyufd, this is a betting site after all!
A Tory hold might actually be dangerous to the Govt if if encourages (even more) hubris. This thought might have occurred to Tory voters in N Shropshire.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Historic Northumbria so not really
Durham did have a waitrose but it was in completely the wrong location so didn’t last.
And anyway who wants Waitrose when Booths is so much better
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
I expect it to be a landslide for them
As a LibDem voter I wish I could agree with you, Big G, but a 23,000 majority turning into a landslide for the party that won just 10% last time is a very, very big ask. The LibDems are only seeing a modest uptick in the national polls.
A LibDem win could happen - on balance I think the Conservatives will retain it, but I'm a pessimist like that. But a landslide? I'd be astonished.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Lady Macbeth etc etc – the sexist tropes on PB really are something to behold.
The funny thing is, you are the one who is doing it: how dare you besmirch the reputation of a fragrant member of the weaker sex, is the underlying thought. Here in the 21st century we find it possible to judge people without reference to gender.
Absolute rubbish.
You and your fellow travellers are blaming the failings of a useless prime minister on his wife.
It's a truly pathetic spectacle.
Even if a theoretical PMs spouse is creating issues that lead to failings, it is still the responsibility and duty of the PM to manage that. So from the electorates point of view if a PM fails, it is the PMs responsibility regardless and they who need to change, not their spouse.
There was some chat earlier in the week about tfl. Any inside track on the horse trading? With the new restrictions it’s very difficult for me to believe that they won’t be given enough cash to see them through, unless anyone hearing to the contrary?
I don’t think it’s the short term that matters - it’s the permanent loss of 30% of ticket income that is the problem - and there is no way anyone in Government can sign off a subsidy without it being used against them at the next election
December starts with the latest results from the COV-BOOST study with its hugely important findings which will inform how booster doses can be administered moving forward. There are a number of other underway to test new boosters (including the Gritstone, Sanofi and Octave Duo) and how to give pregnant women the best protection through vaccination (Preg-CoV).
We still need to find safe and effective treatments that can help people to recover from COVID-19 at home, without the need to go to hospital. The antiviral PANORAMIC platform study has been announced which will help generate the evidence the NHS needs to roll-out the latest COVID-19 treatments and improve outcomes for those at greatest risk. The ease and accessibility of antiviral treatments could prove to be our next effective weapon in our arsenal for fighting the disease.
Two vaccines which included thousands of volunteers across the UK, in the shape of Novavax and Valneva, have begun to submit for approval across different regulatory agencies.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
You do realise that Wes Streeting was brought up in a council estate in Stepney? If you actually visited London and spent some time here, your pathetic prejudice might ease somewhat.
I wasn't being specific about Wes. He seems to be a great asset to the Labour front bench.
And I did live in London for 4 years.
I just want a Labour Party that can reconnect with the voters we lost in 2019, and indeed over previous electoral cycles, in working class communities across the country. Having prominent figures with a range of accents, representing seats from across the country, is all part of doing this.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
F1: Verstappen fastest in first practice, Hamilton 3rd. Perez 4th, less than a hundredth off Hamilton.
Suspect there might be a spot of sandbags from both protagonists.
Hamilton had a time deleted for exceeding track limits - and was almost certainly running an older engine than the one he'll use in qualifying/the race. No sandbagging - FP1 times are relatively meaningless - that comes tomorrow.
One for RCS100, just because I know he likes to compare Bremen's vaccination rate with the lowest rates in Germany.
Bremen officially has just 2.5% adults (18+) unvaccinated. Surrounding Lower Saxony has 14.9% adults unvaccinated.
I'm just not buying it. There isn't that much difference between tiny Bremen and surrounding Lower Saxony. Bremen is more urban, and has more immigrants. Maybe they made more effort to reach people to get them vaccinated, but not enough to make that big a difference.
Then look at the numbers for 12-17 year olds. Bremen has vaccinated 57.7% and Lower Saxony 62.4%. It doesn't make any sense that Bremen would have quite a lot more adults vaccinated and yet fewer teenagers vaccinated.
Then look at the incidence rates, death rates and hospitalisation rates. All a bit worse in Bremen than in surrounding Lower Saxony. If there were really 6 times as many unvaccinated adults per capita in Lower Saxony you would expect to see it show up at some point in these stats.
Bremen's 97.5% adults with at least one shot isn't right. The real figure is no doubt much closer to Lower Saxony's.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
There used to be one in Durham. It was poorly located and closed down.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
All it requires is for a rogue country (Panama? Liberia?) to offer passports for cash to anyone who applies. Then we would all be theoretically entitled to the citizenship of another country and at risk of losing our UK rights.
Some countries already do - the issue is that it’s too much money for your average Brit.
The joke earlier in the week was to separate out Rockall and create a free passport from there
Lady Macbeth etc etc – the sexist tropes on PB really are something to behold.
The funny thing is, you are the one who is doing it: how dare you besmirch the reputation of a fragrant member of the weaker sex, is the underlying thought. Here in the 21st century we find it possible to judge people without reference to gender.
Absolute rubbish.
You and your fellow travellers are blaming the failings of a useless prime minister on his wife.
It's a truly pathetic spectacle.
Even if a theoretical PMs spouse is creating issues that lead to failings, it is still the responsibility and duty of the PM to manage that. So from the electorates point of view if a PM fails, it is the PMs responsibility regardless and they who need to change, not their spouse.
Quite. I can't very well imagine a referendum on who the PM's spouse should or should not be. Yet that is the logical implication of blaming her in a political context (as opposed to a historical or moral one).
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
All it requires is for a rogue country (Panama? Liberia?) to offer passports for cash to anyone who applies. Then we would all be theoretically entitled to the citizenship of another country and at risk of losing our UK rights.
Doesn't St :Lucia? Although isn't there a cash qualification? Eldest Granddaughter's boyfriend has a Swiss as well as British passport for a somewhat arcane reason.
There was some chat earlier in the week about tfl. Any inside track on the horse trading? With the new restrictions it’s very difficult for me to believe that they won’t be given enough cash to see them through, unless anyone hearing to the contrary?
I don’t think it’s the short term that matters - it’s the permanent loss of 30% of ticket income that is the problem - and there is no way anyone in Government can sign off a subsidy without it being used against them at the next election
Ok gotcha. So it would be more that Sadiq is forced to slash bus routes and rail/tube services when the contracts with operators expire, rather than tfl running both of cash and being undevolved.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 18m Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
... by which time it will of course be too late.
If we lived our lives with that attitude, we'd never leave the house.
Nonsense.
Nope that's absolutely true. It's completely irrational. Can you explain to me why the risk of attending a party today is materially different from the risk of attending a party a fortnight ago, when everyone was looking forward to Christmas? Show your working.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Where is that principle in this legislation ? I don't see it expressed or even implied.
The law in question is about the Home Secretary having the power to remove citizenship should she determine it is “conducive to the public good”. Sure, legal challenges will be (in some cases) possible, but it is not to be compared to an increase in income tax. It's a law which grants the power to a single politician to target individuals and potentially destroy their lives.
There was some chat earlier in the week about tfl. Any inside track on the horse trading? With the new restrictions it’s very difficult for me to believe that they won’t be given enough cash to see them through, unless anyone hearing to the contrary?
I don’t think it’s the short term that matters - it’s the permanent loss of 30% of ticket income that is the problem - and there is no way anyone in Government can sign off a subsidy without it being used against them at the next election
Equally there is no way that a party can see multiple tube lines and bus routes closed without seeing it used against them. No tube in some of the outer London marginals could be a 20-30% house price drop.
So, no inside track but would expect a significant reduction in service and investment but enough subsidy to keep something going on all current tube lines.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
There's one in Hexham. Have been in once. Have seen my Tory MP out and about in the constituency once also. Readers won't be surprised the two occurred at precisely the same moment!
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
No. That's quite some Roger post. Knowing the location of each Waitrose. But clueless as to which part of the North is actually where.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
You do realise that Wes Streeting was brought up in a council estate in Stepney? If you actually visited London and spent some time here, your pathetic prejudice might ease somewhat.
I wasn't being specific about Wes. He seems to be a great asset to the Labour front bench.
And I did live in London for 4 years.
I just want a Labour Party that can reconnect with the voters we lost in 2019, and indeed over previous electoral cycles, in working class communities across the country. Having prominent figures with a range of accents, representing seats from across the country, is all part of doing this.
Plenty of Labour frontbenchers from up north. Those on PB speak in hushed tones about Angela and Bridget.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Where is that principle in this legislation ? I don't see it expressed or even implied.
The law in question is about the Home Secretary having the power to remove citizenship should she determine it is “conducive to the public good”. Sure, legal challenges will be (in some cases) possible, but it is not to be compared to an increase in income tax. It's a law which grants the power to a single politician to target individuals and potentially destroy their lives.
A journalist who keeps asking pesky questions for example, especially if about something like the security services or the armed forces abroad. I could absolutely see it being used against them.
Lib Dems now favourite (1.83) on Betfair in North Shropshire.
I expect it to be a landslide for them
As a LibDem voter I wish I could agree with you, Big G, but a 23,000 majority turning into a landslide for the party that won just 10% last time is a very, very big ask. The LibDems are only seeing a modest uptick in the national polls.
A LibDem win could happen - on balance I think the Conservatives will retain it, but I'm a pessimist like that. But a landslide? I'd be astonished.
I expect a Lib Dem landslide.
Governments don't win midterm by-elections in general and in the current circumstances, with the imposition of new restrictions and all the mess of recent weeks, I'd be voting Lib Dem to send a midterm message to the government.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
There's one in Hexham. Have been in once. Have seen my Tory MP out and about in the constituency once also. Readers won't be surprised the two occurred at precisely the same moment!
There also seems to be several branches in the Newcastle area. The PB Salt of the Earth Northerners are obsessed about a 'London' supermarket that has many branches up north. They are irrational and prejudiced – who knew?
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
You do realise that Wes Streeting was brought up in a council estate in Stepney? If you actually visited London and spent some time here, your pathetic prejudice might ease somewhat.
It's also worth noting that Wes Streeting is MP for Ilford North. For those who know London, the character of his seat probably has more in common with some Red Wall seats than it does with Islington.
Comments
I suspect the answer is – no.
I know everyone is excited about the Labour leads but worth noting in the latest @yougov 1 in 4 2019 Conservatives are 'don't knows'
These polling leads are not (yet) on solid ground.
https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1469239175794860032?s=20
On UNS the Tories would get 46% still in North Shropshire if Yougov is correct which would likely be enough to hold the seat given the division between the Labour and LD vote
Where was the animal welfare deficit in having the animals humanely put down, and attention turned to friends of this country who may be poor and brown but are human and at risk of (indee, now victims of) torture and murder? I don't think "I do animal welfare" is an excuse for this.
BoJo deserves credit for appointing a copetent person to oversee the vaccine programme, and more importantly for leaving her alone to get on with it. Brown would have insisted on micro-meddling. A case from Boris of masterly inactivity.
He's good at that. Too good.
It's knowing when to interfere that makes a good PM.
But it's gmt's job to set priorities and assess resources. Not NP's job or expertise or information.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2021-09-20..latest&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=ITA~DEU~GBR~FRA~BEL~NLD~ESP~PRT~DNK~IRL~AUT~NOR~SWE~CHE
Just saw that Germany had 103K cases yesterday and their upward trend doesn't seem to be slowing yet. On the other hand the measures in Austria have had a massive impact and they now have case rates lower than the UK.
What I generally find interesting about cases in the UK is that our numbers have been oscillating around a similar level ever since the kids went back to school after Summer. We have not seen exponential growth like experienced in other European countries. Is this purely because we opened up earlier to accept higher levels of cases in the Summer and early Autumn?
Which is ironic given the backing he gave to Javid regarding the coming vote on Plan B - but then of course both Starmer and Streeting believe that this positioning is in their own party's best interest.
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Now how much 'evil councillor' effect there is I don't know but:
1) Boris is remarkably loyal to family members who cause him trouble - see Stanley and Jo
2) Carrie has been pregnant for most of the year
3) Carrie suffered a miscarriage not long before that
How much influence she tries to have I don't know but I'm pretty sure Boris has been disinclined to say No to her during 2021.
I would nevertheless be interested in a bet on Tories to come third. This is because if they do lose, it will not be because of voter affinity for Labour or LD parties with which they have nothing in common. It will be because of a catastrophic collapse in the Tory vote, in which case they are as likely to finish third (or lower) as second.
I'd need decent odds -say 5/1 or better - but it might be an interesting punt.
Remember Hyufd, this is a betting site after all!
The US Government has won its High Court bid to overturn a judge’s decision not to extradite WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/08/31/its-the-alpacalypse-for-geronimo-should-the-government-be-worried-about-a-backlash/
Do pay attention.
Do they have alpacas in Afghanistan?
You and your fellow travellers are blaming the failings of a useless prime minister on his wife.
It's a truly pathetic spectacle.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/julian-assange-got-what-he-deserved/587008/
and
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/feb/19/donald-trump-offered-julian-assange-pardon-russia-hack-wikileaks
@andrew_lilico
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18m
Status update: Still not seen any data that persuades me an omicron wave (which does now seem likely to happen) is especially likely to create any bad problem. Such evidence might emerge, but it hasn't done so yet. So enjoy yourselves until it does.
https://altiplanoinsulation.com/blogs/journal/117513027-afghan-llamas
I think though this is a much more authoritarian country, and probably always was, than we like to mythologise.
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157773464125446
The UK is sequencing between 5000 and 8000 viruses everyday. Although turnaround times are fast, necessary processing delays permit a view that's basically lagged by ~7 days. Today, I have a strong view of Dec 1 data in
@GISAID, but Dec 2 has much less data available to me. 3/21
They won’t.
In London the population will have changed by several hundreds and thousands, if not millions both up and down over the last 2 years. That alone is going to give perhaps 5-10% error rates changing over time if they used the start of 2020 population numbers and I am not sure the official data will have kept good track of the numbers since then.
Suspect there might be a spot of sandbags from both protagonists.
Durham did have a waitrose but it was in completely the wrong location so didn’t last.
And anyway who wants Waitrose when Booths is so much better
A LibDem win could happen - on balance I think the Conservatives will retain it, but I'm a pessimist like that. But a landslide? I'd be astonished.
December starts with the latest results from the COV-BOOST study with its hugely important findings which will inform how booster doses can be administered moving forward. There are a number of other underway to test new boosters (including the Gritstone, Sanofi and Octave Duo) and how to give pregnant women the best protection through vaccination (Preg-CoV).
We still need to find safe and effective treatments that can help people to recover from COVID-19 at home, without the need to go to hospital. The antiviral PANORAMIC platform study has been announced which will help generate the evidence the NHS needs to roll-out the latest COVID-19 treatments and improve outcomes for those at greatest risk. The ease and accessibility of antiviral treatments could prove to be our next effective weapon in our arsenal for fighting the disease.
Two vaccines which included thousands of volunteers across the UK, in the shape of Novavax and Valneva, have begun to submit for approval across different regulatory agencies.
And I did live in London for 4 years.
I just want a Labour Party that can reconnect with the voters we lost in 2019, and indeed over previous electoral cycles, in working class communities across the country. Having prominent figures with a range of accents, representing seats from across the country, is all part of doing this.
No sandbagging - FP1 times are relatively meaningless - that comes tomorrow.
The joke earlier in the week was to separate out Rockall and create a free passport from there
Eldest Granddaughter's boyfriend has a Swiss as well as British passport for a somewhat arcane reason.
The law in question is about the Home Secretary having the power to remove citizenship should she determine it is “conducive to the public good”. Sure, legal challenges will be (in some cases) possible, but it is not to be compared to an increase in income tax.
It's a law which grants the power to a single politician to target individuals and potentially destroy their lives.
So, no inside track but would expect a significant reduction in service and investment but enough subsidy to keep something going on all current tube lines.
Have been in once.
Have seen my Tory MP out and about in the constituency once also.
Readers won't be surprised the two occurred at precisely the same moment!
That's quite some Roger post. Knowing the location of each Waitrose.
But clueless as to which part of the North is actually where.
Governments don't win midterm by-elections in general and in the current circumstances, with the imposition of new restrictions and all the mess of recent weeks, I'd be voting Lib Dem to send a midterm message to the government.
There also seems to be several branches in the Newcastle area. The PB Salt of the Earth Northerners are obsessed about a 'London' supermarket that has many branches up north. They are irrational and prejudiced – who knew?