I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
I think also student's expectations are much higher now than they used to be. When I was a student in the 90s I had a sink in my hall room but had to walk down a long corridor to have a shower in an area that was always freezing cold in the winter. Furnishings were basic - single bed, wardrobe, desk and chair. I think almost all accommodation is ensuite now isn't it? Having said that, I think many Universities have seen this as a great way to top up their funding.
Yes.
Students want contemporary accommodation that is like a home, and they and their parents are willing to pay for it and can afford it. But requirements have to be understood.
Three years ago my letting agent said that if we moved our small no of student houses from "Ikea" style to "Hipster" with a bit of Designer input, he could get a 25% rent increase the next year. He proved himself right, despite our houses being a couple in a row of identical terraces, and ones that the Uni rejected after 20 years of a long lease as they were "not ensuite".
All of the 400 bed spaces rejected by the Uni then were refurbed to a higher standard, relet privately at a lower rent as the Uni had been screwing students for 15 years, and the Uni ended up giving £500 cashbacks to get students into their shiny new properties with free gyms and so on.
The recommendation this year is for a further 20% rent increase to follow market levels.
Definitely on manoeuvres. Recording 'Talking Politics' with Toenails casually mentioned that, on the party night in question, "I and my staff were working on getting trade deals through" etc.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
M6/M74?
A1?
The A1 is not dualled much north of Hexham to the border. South to Newcastle is fine but not north. Its absolutely ridiculous.
"Waitrose" is merely shorthand description for a well off, comfortably-living, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling Labour luvvie, who wibbles on about the latest right-on cause and is completely out of touch and clueless when it comes to the bread and butter issues that matter to the average voter.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
Sainsbury's is there to keep the riff raff out of Waitrose (Stephen Fry)
It was fearless Alan Coren. Hand-wringing Stephen Fry would never say anything so disobliging about his audience.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Yes because that 'smooth and orderly' transition to Brown worked so well for Labour in 2010 didn't it? A brief poll bounce then downhill all the way to defeat
The problem was though that Brown wasn't cut out to be a PM. That wouldn't necessarily apply to the Tory selection to replace Boris.
I'm sure you guys can come up with something better, can't you?
Everyone is getting Omicron whether they like it or not, and then due to the inevitable very large number of cases worldwide there must be a decent chance of a new even nastier variant in 2022.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
So glad I spoke out to appeal for your safe return.
If what you were saying was true then there would not be any such new powers being raised in the nationality and borders bill. Put the boot into Blair all you like - he's 15 years into the past. This is about this government, this home secretary and the new powers in this bill.
It's about the Blair (and May) powers, too, but this gives it rather more urgency, since the new legislation is about to be passed. Defeat it, and there's an outside chance of winding them back a bit.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Yes because that 'smooth and orderly' transition to Brown worked so well for Labour in 2010 didn't it? A brief poll bounce then downhill all the way to defeat
Oh I didn't mean a "transition" to a chosen one like Blair > Brown. There will have to be a leadership contest as you've got several potential alternative leaders.
What I was really getting at is I'll be surprised if Boris's end is brutal like Thatcher and May. I see it being a more gradual end like Blair's was but we'll see. I could be completely wrong. You'd know the mood in the Tory Party better than me.
Everyone is getting Omicron whether they like it or not, and then due to the inevitable very large number of cases worldwide there must be a decent chance of a new even nastier variant in 2022.
Yes, but we'll all have had Omicron by then which will boost our immune response to the next variant. COVID is going to pick off the old, vulnerable, sick and stupid for the next 2-3 years, I don't see how that is avoidable.
Both the vice chair AND the treasurer of 1922 committee have had outings this morning to knife the FLSOJ™. NB Ghani the vice chair also livid about doggie airlift.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Yes because that 'smooth and orderly' transition to Brown worked so well for Labour in 2010 didn't it? A brief poll bounce then downhill all the way to defeat
The problem was though that Brown wasn't cut out to be a PM. That wouldn't necessarily apply to the Tory selection to replace Boris.
I'm sure you guys can come up with something better, can't you?
We already have a leader who has won the biggest majority for our party since Thatcher.
There is noone in the current crop who will do any better after 11 years in power in my view.
Sunak and Javid might get a brief poll bounce but it would soon fall back and they would not have the appeal of Boris in the RedWall.
Truss, Patel, Raab etc would poll worse than Boris is now
Everyone is getting Omicron whether they like it or not, and then due to the inevitable very large number of cases worldwide there must be a decent chance of a new even nastier variant in 2022.
Any further variant would have to be more transmissable than Omicron to survive. I dont think that is likely.
"Waitrose" is merely shorthand description for a well off, comfortably-living, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling Labour luvvie, who wibbles on about the latest right-on cause and is completely out of touch and clueless when it comes to the bread and butter issues that matter to the average voter.
Full disclosure: We sometimes shop at Waitrose. But I ain't no luvvie.
So the term has supplanted the more traditional 'Guardian Reader' then? I suppose nobody reads papers any more.
Do you, Sandy? (Viz doesn't count.)
No, I do not 'take' a newspaper.
You do bang on a lot about people who buy “good brie” and then proudly reported the other day you had just ordered some “cornish gouda”.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
I think also student's expectations are much higher now than they used to be. When I was a student in the 90s I had a sink in my hall room but had to walk down a long corridor to have a shower in an area that was always freezing cold in the winter. Furnishings were basic - single bed, wardrobe, desk and chair. I think almost all accommodation is ensuite now isn't it? Having said that, I think many Universities have seen this as a great way to top up their funding.
Yes.
Students want contemporary accommodation that is like a home, and they and their parents are willing to pay for it and can afford it. But requirements have to be understood.
Three years ago my letting agent said that if we moved our small no of student houses from "Ikea" style to "Hipster" with a bit of Designer input, he could get a 25% rent increase the next year. He proved himself right, despite our houses being a couple in a row of identical terraces, and ones that the Uni rejected after 20 years of a long lease as they were "not ensuite".
All of the 400 bed spaces rejected by the Uni then were refurbed to a higher standard, relet privately at a lower rent as the Uni had been screwing students for 15 years, and the Uni ended up giving £500 cashbacks to get students into their shiny new properties with free gyms and so on.
The recommendation this year is for a further 20% rent increase to follow market levels.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
I hope they are more ruthless than that.
Boris has shat the bed and is currently smearing the shit over everyone in sight, including the reputation of the party.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
I think that he will end up Chancellor (again) when Rishi moves up. But he's doing well in health at the moment at a tricky time.
They all had mild cases though. Simple message - get your 3 doses ASAP. Lots of people are going to get Omicron but we have to trust in the vaccines. Unfortunately those who have chosen not to be vaccinated may well have much worse outcomes but that was their choice.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Yes because that 'smooth and orderly' transition to Brown worked so well for Labour in 2010 didn't it? A brief poll bounce then downhill all the way to defeat
Oh I didn't mean a "transition" to a chosen one like Blair > Brown. There will have to be a leadership contest as you've got several potential alternative leaders.
What I was really getting at is I'll be surprised if Boris's end is brutal like Thatcher and May. I see it being a more gradual end like Blair's was but we'll see. I could be completely wrong. You'd know the mood in the Tory Party better than me.
I thought your prediction was most reasonable to me. Boris will read the writing on the wall at some stage (impossible to predict when), and step down “of his own accord”.
That article about "trade" does not have any actual trade figures in it
It is unfortunate that our largest trading partner's economy has not recovered as well as ours from Covid. Germany has had some particularly bad figures recently and exports of financial services to the US have overtaken those to the EU for the first time in several years. It is in our interests that their demand recovers.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
M6/M74?
A1?
The A1 is not dualled much north of Hexham to the border. South to Newcastle is fine but not north. Its absolutely ridiculous.
Yes. The Scottish government built the definitely not a motorway to Dunbar and offered to add to the program the not-motorway's extension to the border if the same was to be built in England. They said no, so the single carriageway remains.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Been around too long, unlikely to capture the public attention.
I share your doubts. I place little trust in our Home Secretary. But some questions need answering.
How may people have been deprived so far?
How many of these have been rendered stateless?
Is there an appeal which will go through the well known structure up to and including the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court?
Can those courts and tribunals consider the merits of the case on the facts, and overturn the executive decision on the basis of the court's view of the facts?
Is Legal Aid available for the appeals? Are there a number of firms of solicitors willing and able to represent people in this situation effectively?
Is there so far any evidence of the use of the process in respect of people who have not behaved abominably in the eyes of the person in the street?
1. See the attached 2. Don't know. Rendering someone stateless is contrary to international law even if the Labour government gave itself this power. 3. In theory yes you can appeal but (a) how if you are not given notice and (b) notice the government's response when it loses such cases. Not simply to change the law for the future. But to retrospectively make lawful what was unlawful. So even winning an appeal may not help. It is a spitefully malicious power which the government has given itself. 4. Generally no - because as you know of the limitations placed on judicial review. 5. Legal Aid has been cut back considerably. To challenge a decision will cost. Significantly. 6. Not yet - because the Bill is not yet law. But what we do know is that the previous powers have been used beyond their original stated intention to deal with not simply enemies of the state but those accused of serious crime.
It is not simply the prospect of being rendered stateless. It is the prospect of the removal of British citizenship from people living and working here. Even if they have another nationality, what then is their status here? Can they work? Rent a flat? Get a GP? Etc. It creates uncertainty and gives arbitrary powers to government.
Is it so fanciful to fear what a Corbyn-style government would do with such powers in relation to Jews? Or wonder whether hard-line Unionists might demand the removal of British citizenship from Northern Irish nationalists as the price of keeping a government in power? And so on.
Impossible you say. I would like to think so. But I cannot say so with any certainty.
Just got a French number through on my mobile phone which then led to a recorded voice suggesting I was subject of a National Crime Agency investigation, then suggested I hold to speak to an investigator.
I probably need a loud whistle on hand for such calls.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
M6/M74?
A1?
The A1 is not dualled much north of Hexham to the border. South to Newcastle is fine but not north. Its absolutely ridiculous.
Yes. The Scottish government built the definitely not a motorway to Dunbar and offered to add to the program the not-motorway's extension to the border if the same was to be built in England. They said no, so the single carriageway remains.
I think the first promises of an upgrade were by a chap called Agicola?
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Any chance Johnson might roll the dice and go for a snap GE in 2022?
He can't on his own. The FTPA is still in place. He would either need majority support to pass a new bill, or super majority support to use the provisions of the current act.
It is highly questionable whether anyone at all will want an election, apart from the possibility that Boris would want a last throw of the tactical dice. Labour may not yet be ready to win it (in alliance), and Tories may fear losing it.
I didn't know about a Party in my house cos of its sheer vastness will play well, won't it?
A more cunning PM who had given the nudge nudge wink wink for staffers to have a bit of a knees up, would have ensured that whatever date had been set, they were away at Chequers.
The claim of not hearing because its a big building, is about as believable as Gordo not having a clue what the bloke next to him in the office had been up to in relationship to organising smears.
People who are not vaccinated and fall ill with Covid-19 now have to pay for their own treatment in Singapore after the government withdrew support on Wednesday.
Singapore has covered the medical bills for nearly all Covid-19 patients since last year under a measure to ease the public's financial concerns during the pandemic.
But on Wednesday, the government lifted this policy for the unvaccinated, withdrawing free care for those who have so far chosen not to get the jab.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Been around too long, unlikely to capture the public attention.
I share your doubts. I place little trust in our Home Secretary. But some questions need answering.
How may people have been deprived so far?
How many of these have been rendered stateless?
Is there an appeal which will go through the well known structure up to and including the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court?
Can those courts and tribunals consider the merits of the case on the facts, and overturn the executive decision on the basis of the court's view of the facts?
Is Legal Aid available for the appeals? Are there a number of firms of solicitors willing and able to represent people in this situation effectively?
Is there so far any evidence of the use of the process in respect of people who have not behaved abominably in the eyes of the person in the street?
1. See the attached 2. Don't know. Rendering someone stateless is contrary to international law even if the Labour government gave itself this power. 3. In theory yes you can appeal but (a) how if you are not given notice and (b) notice the government's response when it loses such cases. Not simply to change the law for the future. But to retrospectively make lawful what was unlawful. So even winning an appeal may not help. It is a spitefully malicious power which the government has given itself. 4. Generally no - because as you know of the limitations placed on judicial review. 5. Legal Aid has been cut back considerably. To challenge a decision will cost. Significantly. 6. Not yet - because the Bill is not yet law. But what we do know is that the previous powers have been used beyond their original stated intention to deal with not simply enemies of the state but those accused of serious crime.
It is not simply the prospect of being rendered stateless. It is the prospect of the removal of British citizenship from people living and working here. Even if they have another nationality, what then is their status here? Can they work? Rent a flat? Get a GP? Etc. It creates uncertainty and gives arbitrary powers to government.
Is it so fanciful to fear what a Corbyn-style government would do with such powers in relation to Jews? Or wonder whether hard-line Unionists might demand the removal of British citizenship from Northern Irish nationalists as the price of keeping a government in power? And so on.
Impossible you say. I would like to think so. But I cannot say so with any certainty.
Power corrupts as someone once wisely said.
Much of this is caveated with what would happen if... I'm more worried about what will occur with this actual real life government, before any hypothetical one. The introduction of voter ID. Followed swiftly by a promise to seize the passports and driving licences of possessors of drugs was a pointer.
That article about "trade" does not have any actual trade figures in it
It is unfortunate that our largest trading partner's economy has not recovered as well as ours from Covid. Germany has had some particularly bad figures recently and exports of financial services to the US have overtaken those to the EU for the first time in several years. It is in our interests that their demand recovers.
Liz Truss is not the only minister with leadership ambitions and a keen eye for judicious media appearances (see 10:41am for more).
Rishi Sunak likes to keep his powder dry, picking and choosing his photo opps with a less is more approach.
So the fact a spread of pictures, taken by the Treasury's own snapper, have landed today is certainly an interesting move - even if the general consensus in Westminster is that the Chancellor will have his work cut out with both backbenchers and the wider public before becoming a genuine leadership contender.
Mr Sunak is apparently in Bishop Auckland - one of the key Red Wall seats - to see how levelling up cash is being spent.
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
Yes because that 'smooth and orderly' transition to Brown worked so well for Labour in 2010 didn't it? A brief poll bounce then downhill all the way to defeat
The problem was though that Brown wasn't cut out to be a PM. That wouldn't necessarily apply to the Tory selection to replace Boris.
I'm sure you guys can come up with something better, can't you?
We already have a leader who has won the biggest majority for our party since Thatcher.
There is noone in the current crop who will do any better after 11 years in power in my view.
Sunak and Javid might get a brief poll bounce but it would soon fall back and they would not have the appeal of Boris in the RedWall.
Truss, Patel, Raab etc would poll worse than Boris is now
Well yes, but he won't be up against Corbyn next time round.
Shouldn't you be reviewing more candidates than that?
I share your doubts. I place little trust in our Home Secretary. But some questions need answering.
How may people have been deprived so far?
How many of these have been rendered stateless?
Is there an appeal which will go through the well known structure up to and including the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court?
Can those courts and tribunals consider the merits of the case on the facts, and overturn the executive decision on the basis of the court's view of the facts?
Is Legal Aid available for the appeals? Are there a number of firms of solicitors willing and able to represent people in this situation effectively?
Is there so far any evidence of the use of the process in respect of people who have not behaved abominably in the eyes of the person in the street?
1. See the attached 2. Don't know. Rendering someone stateless is contrary to international law even if the Labour government gave itself this power. 3. In theory yes you can appeal but (a) how if you are not given notice and (b) notice the government's response when it loses such cases. Not simply to change the law for the future. But to retrospectively make lawful what was unlawful. So even winning an appeal may not help. It is a spitefully malicious power which the government has given itself. 4. Generally no - because as you know of the limitations placed on judicial review. 5. Legal Aid has been cut back considerably. To challenge a decision will cost. Significantly. 6. Not yet - because the Bill is not yet law. But what we do know is that the previous powers have been used beyond their original stated intention to deal with not simply enemies of the state but those accused of serious crime.
It is not simply the prospect of being rendered stateless. It is the prospect of the removal of British citizenship from people living and working here. Even if they have another nationality, what then is their status here? Can they work? Rent a flat? Get a GP? Etc. It creates uncertainty and gives arbitrary powers to government.
Is it so fanciful to fear what a Corbyn-style government would do with such powers in relation to Jews? Or wonder whether hard-line Unionists might demand the removal of British citizenship from Northern Irish nationalists as the price of keeping a government in power? And so on.
Impossible you say. I would like to think so. But I cannot say so with any certainty.
I'll never forget when he was hosting the Saturday night lottery show and they had an invasion on the stage by fathers for justice of something and his natural instinct was to hide behind the lady guest who was on stage with him lol!
I have raised this a number of times before, it has been the silent rip-off lost among the headlines of £9k fees. And in many respects it is far worse, as it is a clear rip-off, as a mortgage payments on a house would be less in many cases.
I would think if the Lib Dems want to regain some of the student vote, a sensible policy on this might well prove popular.
I think also student's expectations are much higher now than they used to be. When I was a student in the 90s I had a sink in my hall room but had to walk down a long corridor to have a shower in an area that was always freezing cold in the winter. Furnishings were basic - single bed, wardrobe, desk and chair. I think almost all accommodation is ensuite now isn't it? Having said that, I think many Universities have seen this as a great way to top up their funding.
Yes.
Students want contemporary accommodation that is like a home, and they and their parents are willing to pay for it and can afford it. But requirements have to be understood.
Three years ago my letting agent said that if we moved our small no of student houses from "Ikea" style to "Hipster" with a bit of Designer input, he could get a 25% rent increase the next year. He proved himself right, despite our houses being a couple in a row of identical terraces, and ones that the Uni rejected after 20 years of a long lease as they were "not ensuite".
All of the 400 bed spaces rejected by the Uni then were refurbed to a higher standard, relet privately at a lower rent as the Uni had been screwing students for 15 years, and the Uni ended up giving £500 cashbacks to get students into their shiny new properties with free gyms and so on.
The recommendation this year is for a further 20% rent increase to follow market levels.
I share your doubts. I place little trust in our Home Secretary. But some questions need answering.
How may people have been deprived so far?
How many of these have been rendered stateless?
Is there an appeal which will go through the well known structure up to and including the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court?
Can those courts and tribunals consider the merits of the case on the facts, and overturn the executive decision on the basis of the court's view of the facts?
Is Legal Aid available for the appeals? Are there a number of firms of solicitors willing and able to represent people in this situation effectively?
Is there so far any evidence of the use of the process in respect of people who have not behaved abominably in the eyes of the person in the street?
1. See the attached 2. Don't know. Rendering someone stateless is contrary to international law even if the Labour government gave itself this power. 3. In theory yes you can appeal but (a) how if you are not given notice and (b) notice the government's response when it loses such cases. Not simply to change the law for the future. But to retrospectively make lawful what was unlawful. So even winning an appeal may not help. It is a spitefully malicious power which the government has given itself. 4. Generally no - because as you know of the limitations placed on judicial review. 5. Legal Aid has been cut back considerably. To challenge a decision will cost. Significantly. 6. Not yet - because the Bill is not yet law. But what we do know is that the previous powers have been used beyond their original stated intention to deal with not simply enemies of the state but those accused of serious crime.
It is not simply the prospect of being rendered stateless. It is the prospect of the removal of British citizenship from people living and working here. Even if they have another nationality, what then is their status here? Can they work? Rent a flat? Get a GP? Etc. It creates uncertainty and gives arbitrary powers to government.
Is it so fanciful to fear what a Corbyn-style government would do with such powers in relation to Jews? Or wonder whether hard-line Unionists might demand the removal of British citizenship from Northern Irish nationalists as the price of keeping a government in power? And so on.
Impossible you say. I would like to think so. But I cannot say so with any certainty.
Power corrupts as someone once wisely said.
Thanks. I don't like the bill any more than you do. I am I suppose less confident than you about a fascistic government arising. The current populist one is not exactly awash with support. But it all indicates the pressing need for a One Nation Tory government or a well led centre left social democratic alliance.
With luck one or the other is on the way. Who you would vote for if you want a competent Home Office is beyond me however.
Excellent header, but not really a " slippery slope". Arbitrarily depriving people of their nationality is in a pattern of autocratic moves from a profoundly despotic government.
Just in the past week, the same people have inserted last minute amendments to the Policing bill that will potentially make most of public protest a punishable offence. It's effectively at the discretion of the police or the Home secretary whether such an offence has occurred. All accountability for the use of stop and search is also ended.
Also this week was the floated idea that Ministers can strike down court judgements on whim.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
Harsh
Failing to win a majority against a tired and unpopular government, losing an historic referendum and then sloping off to dodgeville to have his pockets filled by some of the country’s shonkiest businessmen?
Interesting observation on a thread on the spread... https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157773464125446 The UK is sequencing between 5000 and 8000 viruses everyday. Although turnaround times are fast, necessary processing delays permit a view that's basically lagged by ~7 days. Today, I have a strong view of Dec 1 data in @GISAID, but Dec 2 has much less data available to me. 3/21
Basic maths on the relative spread of Delta and Omicron taking 6% Omicron rate at the moment and assuming Omicron is trebling week on week (quite a modest assessment) and Delta is receding by 10% each week, which the likely stability of the 5/12 and 6/12 by sample date figures already seem to suggest:
The Omicron whump maybe comes just after Christmas, again.
At some point, of course, Omicron breaks the exponent and things bend down, but 250k cases per day is not an extreme outcome for an immune busting event.
If I were the government, with one eye on the NHS, I'd be asking the unvaccinated to pretty much shield within the next few days, or else everyone will be locked down by New Year.
Asking the unvaccinated to shield (as if they gave a toss about themselves or anyone else) probably wouldn't do much to hinder the spread of Omicron, because there is so much potential for immune escape among the vaccinated. It would probably halve the load on the hospitals - though they'd have to carry on shielding for the duration of the wave, not just for "the next few days". But halving the load on the hospitals would be worth only 2 or 3 days delay given the growth rate. Unless Omicron miraculously turns out to much milder - meaning a factor of 10 or something - I think we're all going to be in lockdown soon, regardless of what other measures are attempted.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Because he looks like a Bond villain.
Fair point, but the party did choose Michael Howard as a leader.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
Harsh
Failing to win a majority against a tired and unpopular government, losing an historic referendum and then sloping off to dodgeville to have his pockets filled by some of the country’s shonkiest businessmen?
David Cameron flipped over 100 seats in one election and is the only reason the Tories are in Government today
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
The imperial project to double Dere Street (the present day ALXVIII) was part of the doubling-up agenda but was put in abeyance when the imperial secretariat ran into a little trouble back at the imperial palace.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
Harsh
Failing to win a majority against a tired and unpopular government, losing an historic referendum and then sloping off to dodgeville to have his pockets filled by some of the country’s shonkiest businessmen?
David Cameron flipped over 100 seats in one election and is the only reason the Tories are in Government today
You are right but not for the reason you think. Sorry to go all HYUFD on you but without Cameron’s promise to hold the referendum then yes, the Tories would not be in government, that much is clear.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Because he looks like a Bond villain.
Also recently booed by his own backbenches over Plan B. If Boris is defenestrated rapidly, the timing is off for him.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Everyone is getting Omicron whether they like it or not, and then due to the inevitable very large number of cases worldwide there must be a decent chance of a new even nastier variant in 2022.
Any further variant would have to be more transmissable than Omicron to survive. I dont think that is likely.
The same thing was said about Delta. Although, it must get to a point where there is literally no way it came be more transmissible in the environment.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Because he looks like a Bond villain.
Also recently booed by his own backbenches over Plan B. If Boris is defenestrated rapidly, the timing is off for him.
They won't be booing him when he's feeding them to sharks with fricking laser beams.
Somehow he's about as threatening as Rami Malek's recent effort.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Because he looks like a Bond villain.
And has the comedy voice of a ventriloquist's dummy.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
One of the few posters who really understands what Labour have got with Starmer, is Richard.
Interesting observation on a thread on the spread... https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157773464125446 The UK is sequencing between 5000 and 8000 viruses everyday. Although turnaround times are fast, necessary processing delays permit a view that's basically lagged by ~7 days. Today, I have a strong view of Dec 1 data in @GISAID, but Dec 2 has much less data available to me. 3/21
Basic maths on the relative spread of Delta and Omicron taking 6% Omicron rate at the moment and assuming Omicron is trebling week on week (quite a modest assessment) and Delta is receding by 10% each week, which the likely stability of the 5/12 and 6/12 by sample date figures already seem to suggest:
The Omicron whump maybe comes just after Christmas, again.
At some point, of course, Omicron breaks the exponent and things bend down, but 250k cases per day is not an extreme outcome for an immune busting event.
If I were the government, with one eye on the NHS, I'd be asking the unvaccinated to pretty much shield within the next few days, or else everyone will be locked down by New Year.
Asking the unvaccinated to shield (as if they gave a toss about themselves or anyone else) probably wouldn't do much to hinder the spread of Omicron, because there is so much potential for immune escape among the vaccinated. It would probably halve the load on the hospitals - though they'd have to carry on shielding for the duration of the wave, not just for "the next few days". But halving the load on the hospitals would be worth only 2 or 3 days delay given the growth rate. Unless Omicron miraculously turns out to much milder - meaning a factor of 10 or something - I think we're all going to be in lockdown soon, regardless of what other measures are attempted.
We can’t just keep locking down every time we have a new variant. The impacts of lockdowns on human lives are absolutely massive. You seem intensely relaxed about lockdowns. It’s not clear to me why.
Our team Christmas drinks have just been cancelled. Boo!
Genuinely cancelled, Sandy, or reclassified as business meetings?
I've been in a home-based job now since starting at a new company in October 2020. The role deals with stakeholders across Europe. On Tuesday I was meant to be going to an all-day meeting/drinks with the team in the UK. It was to be the first time I got to meet anyone physically from the business and I was really looking forward to it. Waiting to hear now if it will be cancelled!
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
Harsh
Hope you are well.
Thanks. Same to you.
I've got the worst cough/temperature etc this side of Covid (according to a set of negative tests anyway) but otherwise all good
On topic: I think Starmer has more substance than Cameron, but Cameron was a much more savvy political operator. I do see the parallels in failing to set the world on fire early on, but making an unlelectable party electable.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
Not really, no. Still no dual carriageway north towards Hadrian's wall.
M6/M74?
A1?
The A1 is not dualled much north of Hexham to the border. South to Newcastle is fine but not north. Its absolutely ridiculous.
Your map must be very out of date ... was it by Ptolemaios that Greek chappy? Though Hexham is more or less on the same latitude as Newky, tbf.
Nothing much productive in the bedrooms judging by their population pyramid.
There's a frightening pensions timebomb in that population pyramid. I hadn't realised how late Italy's post-war baby boom was - The 1960s rather than late 40s and 50s. Massive numbers of retirements due in the next couple of decades, and nobody to enter the workforce at the other end.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Because he looks like a Bond villain.
Also recently booed by his own backbenches over Plan B. If Boris is defenestrated rapidly, the timing is off for him.
They won't be booing him when he's feeding them to sharks with fricking laser beams.
You'd need a very powerful laser to operate optical tweezers capable of picking up Tory backbenchers and dumping them in the shark tank!
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
Excellent header, but not really a " slippery slope". Arbitrarily depriving people of their nationality is in a pattern of autocratic moves from a profoundly despotic government.
Just in the past week, the same people have inserted last minute amendments to the Policing bill that will potentially make most of public protest a punishable offence. It's effectively at the discretion of the police or the Home secretary whether such an offence has occurred. All accountability for the use of stop and search is also ended.
Also this week was the floated idea that Ministers can strike down court judgements on whim.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
So glad I spoke out to appeal for your safe return.
If what you were saying was true then there would not be any such new powers being raised in the nationality and borders bill. Put the boot into Blair all you like - he's 15 years into the past. This is about this government, this home secretary and the new powers in this bill.
Me too.
There are no such new powers in the bill. That's the point.
What's being changed is how those powers are operated. No new powers are being granted.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
He is losing potential MP support, particularly after the Plan B business. Aside from the William Wragg call to resign, Greg Clark's question has stuck with me. Javid gave assurances to him and others that further restrictions would not be considered unless hospitalisations took a worrying turn; they have't yet here we are. Javid has lost trust.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
The problem with this reasoning, is we can look at the cases to hospitalisation rate a month ago in SA, when Omicron did not exitst and do the same now when Omicron is 85% or so of cases in SA, the ratio is very very different and as there has not been much change in the amount of Vaccination/prio-infection over the last month, there must be another reason.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
Places like Downing Street being exempt is perfectly logical and unsurprising, as in at times of crisis you are going to need to gather all those people together for "work".....however that doesn't mean you take the piss and have a knees up.
Its a bit like the plod being able to speed under certain circumstances, but you don't expect them to just take the plod car out for a speed down the motorway at 100mph and doing doughnuts in the car park of Asda.
This section applies to any house, building or other premises being property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Crown or of the Duchy of Lancaster, or belonging to the Duchy of Cornwall, or belonging to a government department, or held in trust for Her Majesty for purposes of a government department. (2)In relation to any such property, the appropriate authority may agree with— (a)the council of the county, or (b)the local authority of the district,in which the property is situated that any relevant provision of this Act specified in the agreement shall apply to the property ; and, while the agreement is in force, that provision shall apply to that property accordingly, subject to the terms of the agreement. (3)Any such agreement may contain such consequential and incidental provisions (including, with the approval of the Treasury, provisions of a financial character) as appear to the appropriate authority to be necessary or equitable. (4)In this section, “the appropriate authority” means— (a)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Crown, the Crown Estate Commissioners or other government department having the management of the property ; (b)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Duchy of Lancaster, the Chancellor of the Duchy ; (c)in the case of property belonging to the Duchy of Cornwall, such person as the Duke of Cornwall, or the possessor for the time being of the Duchy of Cornwall, appoints ; and (d)in the case of property belonging to a government department or held in trust for Her Majesty for purposes of a government department, that department ;and, if any question arises as to what authority is the appropriate authority in relation to any property, that question shall be referred to the treasury, whose decision shall be final. [F1(5)In this section “premises” does not include any vessel— (a)belonging to Her Majesty, or (b)under the command or charge of an officer holding Her Majesty's commission.] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1984/22/section/73
Comments
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1469271695290740736?s=20
Students want contemporary accommodation that is like a home, and they and their parents are willing to pay for it and can afford it. But requirements have to be understood.
Three years ago my letting agent said that if we moved our small no of student houses from "Ikea" style to "Hipster" with a bit of Designer input, he could get a 25% rent increase the next year. He proved himself right, despite our houses being a couple in a row of identical terraces, and ones that the Uni rejected after 20 years of a long lease as they were "not ensuite".
All of the 400 bed spaces rejected by the Uni then were refurbed to a higher standard, relet privately at a lower rent as the Uni had been screwing students for 15 years, and the Uni ended up giving £500 cashbacks to get students into their shiny new properties with free gyms and so on.
The recommendation this year is for a further 20% rent increase to follow market levels.
Recording 'Talking Politics' with Toenails casually mentioned that, on the party night in question, "I and my staff were working on getting trade deals through" etc.
I'm sure you guys can come up with something better, can't you?
Defeat it, and there's an outside chance of winding them back a bit.
What I was really getting at is I'll be surprised if Boris's end is brutal like Thatcher and May. I see it being a more gradual end like Blair's was but we'll see. I could be completely wrong. You'd know the mood in the Tory Party better than me.
Il est du pain grille.
There is noone in the current crop who will do any better after 11 years in power in my view.
Sunak and Javid might get a brief poll bounce but it would soon fall back and they would not have the appeal of Boris in the RedWall.
Truss, Patel, Raab etc would poll worse than Boris is now
Hypocrisy is a terrible vice.
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Boris has shat the bed and is currently smearing the shit over everyone in sight, including the reputation of the party.
Needs to be put out of his misery.
Whatever you say about Starmer, that is incredible work. What a turnaround for the Labour Party. I am proud I voted for him.
2. Don't know. Rendering someone stateless is contrary to international law even if the Labour government gave itself this power.
3. In theory yes you can appeal but (a) how if you are not given notice and (b) notice the government's response when it loses such cases. Not simply to change the law for the future. But to retrospectively make lawful what was unlawful. So even winning an appeal may not help. It is a spitefully malicious power which the government has given itself.
4. Generally no - because as you know of the limitations placed on judicial review.
5. Legal Aid has been cut back considerably. To challenge a decision will cost. Significantly.
6. Not yet - because the Bill is not yet law. But what we do know is that the previous powers have been used beyond their original stated intention to deal with not simply enemies of the state but those accused of serious crime.
It is not simply the prospect of being rendered stateless. It is the prospect of the removal of British citizenship from people living and working here. Even if they have another nationality, what then is their status here? Can they work? Rent a flat? Get a GP? Etc. It creates uncertainty and gives arbitrary powers to government.
Is it so fanciful to fear what a Corbyn-style government would do with such powers in relation to Jews? Or wonder whether hard-line Unionists might demand the removal of British citizenship from Northern Irish nationalists as the price of keeping a government in power? And so on.
Impossible you say. I would like to think so. But I cannot say so with any certainty.
Power corrupts as someone once wisely said.
I probably need a loud whistle on hand for such calls.
It is highly questionable whether anyone at all will want an election, apart from the possibility that Boris would want a last throw of the tactical dice. Labour may not yet be ready to win it (in alliance), and Tories may fear losing it.
The claim of not hearing because its a big building, is about as believable as Gordo not having a clue what the bloke next to him in the office had been up to in relationship to organising smears.
Singapore has covered the medical bills for nearly all Covid-19 patients since last year under a measure to ease the public's financial concerns during the pandemic.
But on Wednesday, the government lifted this policy for the unvaccinated, withdrawing free care for those who have so far chosen not to get the jab.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290697/Singapore-tells-unvaccinated-pay-treatment-catch-Covid.html
Eamonn Holmes to host his own show on GB News
I'm more worried about what will occur with this actual real life government, before any hypothetical one.
The introduction of voter ID. Followed swiftly by a promise to seize the passports and driving licences of possessors of drugs was a pointer.
Rishi Sunak likes to keep his powder dry, picking and choosing his photo opps with a less is more approach.
So the fact a spread of pictures, taken by the Treasury's own snapper, have landed today is certainly an interesting move - even if the general consensus in Westminster is that the Chancellor will have his work cut out with both backbenchers and the wider public before becoming a genuine leadership contender.
Mr Sunak is apparently in Bishop Auckland - one of the key Red Wall seats - to see how levelling up cash is being spent.
Shouldn't you be reviewing more candidates than that?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1469278131307569152
With luck one or the other is on the way. Who you would vote for if you want a competent Home Office is beyond me however.
Vertically challenged Speaker of the House of Commons: "I am not happy"
DC: "So which one are you?"
Just in the past week, the same people have inserted last minute amendments to the Policing bill that will potentially make most of public protest a punishable offence. It's effectively at the discretion of the police or the Home secretary whether such an offence has occurred. All accountability for the use of stop and search is also ended.
Also this week was the floated idea that Ministers can strike down court judgements on whim.
The imperial project to double Dere Street (the present day ALXVIII) was part of the doubling-up agenda but was put in abeyance when the imperial secretariat ran into a little trouble back at the imperial palace.
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
If Boris is defenestrated rapidly, the timing is off for him.
https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1469267418870603780/photo/1
Nothing much productive in the bedrooms judging by their population pyramid.
Make Boris Johnson your new Gough Whitlam, Your Majesty.
https://twitter.com/Queen_UK/status/1469025930718892033?s=20
That could be what he illness has been all about. Stress induced high blood pressure from having to deal with Boris Johnson lol!
And a hold in Tonbridge.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
I've got the worst cough/temperature etc this side of Covid (according to a set of negative tests anyway) but otherwise all good
On topic: I think Starmer has more substance than Cameron, but Cameron was a much more savvy political operator. I do see the parallels in failing to set the world on fire early on, but making an unlelectable party electable.
Does that mean that the Royal Parks, Windsor Great Park and all the foreshore is exempt from Covid Law?
https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1468705345245786112
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
There are no such new powers in the bill. That's the point.
What's being changed is how those powers are operated. No new powers are being granted.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
Its a bit like the plod being able to speed under certain circumstances, but you don't expect them to just take the plod car out for a speed down the motorway at 100mph and doing doughnuts in the car park of Asda.
(2)In relation to any such property, the appropriate authority may agree with—
(a)the council of the county, or
(b)the local authority of the district,in which the property is situated that any relevant provision of this Act specified in the agreement shall apply to the property ; and, while the agreement is in force, that provision shall apply to that property accordingly, subject to the terms of the agreement.
(3)Any such agreement may contain such consequential and incidental provisions (including, with the approval of the Treasury, provisions of a financial character) as appear to the appropriate authority to be necessary or equitable.
(4)In this section, “the appropriate authority” means—
(a)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Crown, the Crown Estate Commissioners or other government department having the management of the property ;
(b)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Duchy of Lancaster, the Chancellor of the Duchy ;
(c)in the case of property belonging to the Duchy of Cornwall, such person as the Duke of Cornwall, or the possessor for the time being of the Duchy of Cornwall, appoints ; and
(d)in the case of property belonging to a government department or held in trust for Her Majesty for purposes of a government department, that department ;and, if any question arises as to what authority is the appropriate authority in relation to any property, that question shall be referred to the treasury, whose decision shall be final.
[F1(5)In this section “premises” does not include any vessel—
(a)belonging to Her Majesty, or
(b)under the command or charge of an officer holding Her Majesty's commission.]
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1984/22/section/73