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The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    RN is a geologist ...
    @Richard_Tyndall i think. RN does stuff with computers
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    RN is a geologist ...
    @Richard_Tyndall i think. RN does stuff with computers
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    FFS. Calm down. We don’t know how bad, or otherwise, it is yet. Let’s wait and see.
    Oh let him catastrophise. It’s what he does. He lives of the drama.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283
    Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    FFS. Calm down. We don’t know how bad, or otherwise, it is yet. Let’s wait and see.
    I have sky news on. They are leading with dinghies and cold weather in the channel. A long segment. Then boris off to see macron about it. Followed by a little clip of the Saj talking about the Nu. Army reorganisation. And then some cheery reviews of Pete Jackson’s Beatles docco. No sign of panic from Sky News yet then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    FFS. Calm down. We don’t know how bad, or otherwise, it is yet. Let’s wait and see.
    Oh let him catastrophise. It’s what he does. He lives of the drama.
    It's a nice distraction from reality. Which is sufficiently grim that one wishes to be distracted
  • glwglw Posts: 7,777
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,186
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    Similar also to the crazier Brexiteer reactions to people pointing out the downsides of Brexit.

    Meanwhile I'm listening to Handel's Rodelinda. It really is superb.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,029

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
    The 'vaccines' are 'leaky' and don't stop a person catching the disease or passing it on. For the first 2-3 wks immunity may be lower than in an unvaccinated person. After maybe 5-6 months of elevated immunity, they're again useless.

    Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on earth. Egypt has a low COVID rate and seems to have a vaccination rate of ... 13%.

    If you're in a deep political hole, stop digging and look to your neighbours ... if they're not also in a hole.

    There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    edited November 25
    DavidL said:

    Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.

    I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Mice genetically engineered to express human proteins, to enable study of how pathogens etc interact with them.
    Sounds like a perfectly normal thing to do to a mouse.
    Useful as tools to help understand the universe. Not great from the perspective of the mouse. I doubt it’s much different to eating chickens though, in the scheme of things.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    Anyway make the most of being able to go out while you can.

    Difficult times ahead take care y'all 😡
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    FFS. Calm down. We don’t know how bad, or otherwise, it is yet. Let’s wait and see.
    Oh let him catastrophise. It’s what he does. He lives of the drama.
    It's a nice distraction from reality. Which is sufficiently grim that one wishes to be distracted
    You got that cork off yet?😀
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 90
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    I have a friend who loves conspiracies but hates this idea too. I suspect it's because he, deep down, knows it to be true and so it isn't quite as fun as other theories.

    Use the foot and mouth outbreak as an example. Came out a lab.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    Haven’t watched sky in months. I see they let Beff Rigby back after she broke lockdown rules for that birthday party. Pity.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.

    I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
    Pretty sure that’s based on potential results based on PCR drop out rates. May be all Nu, may not be.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    Eabhal said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    I have a friend who loves conspiracies but hates this idea too. I suspect it's because he, deep down, knows it to be true and so it isn't quite as fun as other theories.

    Use the foot and mouth outbreak as an example. Came out a lab.

    It’s an amazing propaganda coup by the Chinese communists that this can even be described as a conspiracy theory. They are top of the ladder in PR that lot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.

    I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
    That's what they said on News at 10 on the BBC. I am not sure how many of the infections are sequenced in SA though. I don't think that anyone on the planet is doing as many as us.

    What this alarm, which will hopefully not amount to anything, shows is that any delusions about fortress UK are just that. We need to step up and make a material contribution to vaccinating the world and reducing the depth of the pools of infection where these new variants can so easily develop.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 737

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    PB is the best place to find erratics.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
    When was your 2nd jab?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
    The 'vaccines' are 'leaky' and don't stop a person catching the disease or passing it on. For the first 2-3 wks immunity may be lower than in an unvaccinated person. After maybe 5-6 months of elevated immunity, they're again useless.

    Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on earth. Egypt has a low COVID rate and seems to have a vaccination rate of ... 13%.

    If you're in a deep political hole, stop digging and look to your neighbours ... if they're not also in a hole.

    There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?
    Vaccines DO stop people catching and passing on Covid. If they didn’t then why is R in the Uk around 1 with virtually no restrictions (especially England)? Don’t confuse not being 100% with not working at all. Israel is highly vaccinated and has few cases currently.
    As to Japan, there is evidence that Asian populations have ore-existing levels of immunity not seen elsewhere.
    I don’t know why I bother to reply, all we really need is some worming medication, right?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,186

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    PB is the best place to find erratics.
    Well, yes, but they're not usually glacial.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
    Not quite:

    Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)

    Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
    Two Joburg to London flights are in the air now, a couple of hours into their journey and still to cross the Equator, and landing around 6-7 am tomorrow. I take it those will be the last to land.
    Are we fresh out of SAM?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    BBC led on Nu.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283
    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    I am also doubtful about the translation. I thought he said, "listen very carefully, I will say this only once."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
    I doubt it would close labs or end careers. We do as scientists take safety very seriously. I sit on three safety committees at work. But we are all human, and no matter how good your protocols are, mistakes get made.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,477

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
    The 'vaccines' are 'leaky' and don't stop a person catching the disease or passing it on. For the first 2-3 wks immunity may be lower than in an unvaccinated person. After maybe 5-6 months of elevated immunity, they're again useless.

    Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on earth. Egypt has a low COVID rate and seems to have a vaccination rate of ... 13%.

    If you're in a deep political hole, stop digging and look to your neighbours ... if they're not also in a hole.

    There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?
    Vaccines DO stop people catching and passing on Covid. If they didn’t then why is R in the Uk around 1 with virtually no restrictions (especially England)? Don’t confuse not being 100% with not working at all. Israel is highly vaccinated and has few cases currently.
    As to Japan, there is evidence that Asian populations have ore-existing levels of immunity not seen elsewhere.
    I don’t know why I bother to reply, all we really need is some worming medication, right?
    Also the vaccines have clearly broken the link between illness and hospitalisation/death.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
    I doubt it would close labs or end careers. We do as scientists take safety very seriously. I sit on three safety committees at work. But we are all human, and no matter how good your protocols are, mistakes get made.
    Three safety committees? What is god's name are you involved in that needs that much safety!? I hope you are on the ball.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
    It was the first item on BBC news before my wife rolled her eyes and pointedly walked upstairs to our bedroom. Not sure how long I'll hold out now...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
    The extreme cynic in me suspects the guardian hopes it’s really bad and forces Johnson to cancel Christmas, just because.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.

    I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
    Pretty sure that’s based on potential results based on PCR drop out rates. May be all Nu, may not be.
    Who reads yesterday's papers? Who needs yesterday's Nus?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 107

    There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?

    Does it have a definite answer, or are we (the world, the scientific community) still guessing?

    One of the things I've realised is that personally I have absolutely no sense for whether cases are going to trend up or down at any point in time or space. Why do some countries do so much better than others? Why do different areas within the UK have such different trajectories sometimes? I have no idea...

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
    The other night I had “we’ll have to agree to disagree” and that was that. I hate that shit. The polite real life version of Muting on social media.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
    The 'vaccines' are 'leaky' and don't stop a person catching the disease or passing it on. For the first 2-3 wks immunity may be lower than in an unvaccinated person. After maybe 5-6 months of elevated immunity, they're again useless.

    Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on earth. Egypt has a low COVID rate and seems to have a vaccination rate of ... 13%.

    If you're in a deep political hole, stop digging and look to your neighbours ... if they're not also in a hole.

    There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?
    Vaccines DO stop people catching and passing on Covid. If they didn’t then why is R in the Uk around 1 with virtually no restrictions (especially England)? Don’t confuse not being 100% with not working at all. Israel is highly vaccinated and has few cases currently.
    As to Japan, there is evidence that Asian populations have ore-existing levels of immunity not seen elsewhere.
    I don’t know why I bother to reply, all we really need is some worming medication, right?
    Also the vaccines have clearly broken the link between illness and hospitalisation/death.
    Cheers, missed that bit out. Boosters are currently giving a superb d3coupling effect right now. See bristoliver on Twitter.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia. If you start from a point of scepticism about the UK government, and someone offers you that story, what can possibly convince you?
    People shortcut to authorities, believing what a trusted figure tells them. Which might be problematic. Frequently.

    This is why the resistance to the "lab" theory. It was put about by Donald Trump. Donald Trump's other notable contributions to the public understanding of Covid was that it wasn't in America (it was), it was going to disappear (it didn't), and that bleach or somehow exposing your insides to sunlight cure you (not advisable). Oh and the various quack cures he and his acolytes pushed. In that context, when he says without backing it up that it came from a lab, do you believe him? Of course not. And when someone later says to you "ooh it might have come from a lab!", all you can think is "bleach, sunlight, shut the fuck up."

    We're all caught in a position of having to rely on SOMEONE for information, and we all use heuristics - mental shortcuts - to quickly assess whether something is worth thinking about. If your heuristic is "I only head this from Donald Trump so it's probably bollocks", then that's very understandable. It might sometimes lead you astray because even Donald fucking Trump is right sometimes, but there has to be some pathway to something you really trust. And in these furious, polarised times, authority is patchy.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
    When was your 2nd jab?
    June 26th, so the timetable makes complete sense. Assuming that one thinks that allowing people to book after five months but forcing them still to wait the full six for an appointment makes any sense, of course.

    If hurrying up the administration of the boosters is the primary aim of the exercise then quite why the gap is still in place, God alone knows.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Either Katya Adler is taller than I thought or Michal Husein is smaller. Or both.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
    I doubt it would close labs or end careers. We do as scientists take safety very seriously. I sit on three safety committees at work. But we are all human, and no matter how good your protocols are, mistakes get made.
    Three safety committees? What is god's name are you involved in that needs that much safety!? I hope you are on the ball.
    No, I’m really not. Just responsible. One of the worst incidents this summer was one of my students...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,866
    edited November 25
    The Spectator has done an interview with French presidential candidate Éric Zemmour.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ5lw4VeKpo
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
    It was the first item on BBC news before my wife rolled her eyes and pointedly walked upstairs to our bedroom. Not sure how long I'll hold out now...
    I guess it depends on how friendly she looked...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Amazing story about the Rutland Roman mosaic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
    When was your 2nd jab?
    June 26th, so the timetable makes complete sense. Assuming that one thinks that allowing people to book after five months but forcing them still to wait the full six for an appointment makes any sense, of course.

    If hurrying up the administration of the boosters is the primary aim of the exercise then quite why the gap is still in place, God alone knows.
    Tricky. I assume it's a balance where six months is felt to be the optimum gap.

    If it reduced to, say four months we're all looking at three boosters a year rather than two. People will get vaccine-weary.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,430
    In other Covid related new:

    German has reputed 76,132 new cases and 315 new deaths, their highest number of new cases in the whole pandemic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
    The other night I had “we’ll have to agree to disagree” and that was that. I hate that shit. The polite real life version of Muting on social media.
    I hate it as well. Worse, it comes with an eye-roll of moral superiority, like you are making some racist comment. It is ridiculous. If it DID come from Wuhan, America is equally to blame, as Fauci quasi-covertly funded the research there. It is not racist to blame China AND America

    And major British institutions - like the Lancet and Nature - were complicit in the early cover-up, which definitely DID happen
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    BigRich said:

    In other Covid related new:

    German has reputed 76,132 new cases and 315 new deaths, their highest number of new cases in the whole pandemic.

    Schrecklich.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited November 25
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes a variant of that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia. If you start from a point of scepticism about the UK government, and someone offers you that story, what can possibly convince you?
    People shortcut to authorities, believing what a trusted figure tells them. Which might be problematic. Frequently.

    This is why the resistance to the "lab" theory. It was put about by Donald Trump. Donald Trump's other notable contributions to the public understanding of Covid was that it wasn't in America (it was), it was going to disappear (it didn't), and that bleach or somehow exposing your insides to sunlight cure you (not advisable). Oh and the various quack cures he and his acolytes pushed. In that context, when he says without backing it up that it came from a lab, do you believe him? Of course not. And when someone later says to you "ooh it might have come from a lab!", all you can think is "bleach, sunlight, shut the fuck up."

    We're all caught in a position of having to rely on SOMEONE for information, and we all use heuristics - mental shortcuts - to quickly assess whether something is worth thinking about. If your heuristic is "I only head this from Donald Trump so it's probably bollocks", then that's very understandable. It might sometimes lead you astray because even Donald fucking Trump is right sometimes, but there has to be some pathway to something you really trust. And in these furious, polarised times, authority is patchy.
    On the Salisbury attacks I read somewhere that Skripal wasn’t the point, it was to do an attack near Porton Down. No idea if that’s true. Bloody lucky for the Skripals and the copper though, thanks to the expertise on hand and regular contact between the local nhs and DSTL. No coincidence that they lived after a supposedly lethal attack.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    geoffw said:

    Either Katya Adler is taller than I thought or Michal Husein is smaller. Or both.

    you are discounting for closer/further away, I trust?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    edited November 25
    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    May as well take every plan you have for every year for the rest of your life and chuck it in the bin.

    As if it is not the Botswana and South Africa variant, the next year it will be the Peru variant, the year after it will be the Egyptian variant etc. Every time we get a variant which is a bit more transmissible in fact.

    Unless it proves completely vaccine resistant we cannot lockdown again, otherwise if we do I think on and off and on again lockdowns will be with us indefinitely and that could wipe out most of the hospitality and retail industry for good
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.

    I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
    I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers

    It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
    The other night I had “we’ll have to agree to disagree” and that was that. I hate that shit. The polite real life version of Muting on social media.
    I hate it as well. Worse, it comes with an eye-roll of moral superiority, like you are making some racist comment. It is ridiculous. If it DID come from Wuhan, America is equally to blame, as Fauci quasi-covertly funded the research there. It is not racist to blame China AND America

    And major British institutions - like the Lancet and Nature - were complicit in the early cover-up, which definitely DID happen
    People don’t want to hear that either though. Because Trump didn’t get on with Fauci. So Fauci must therefore be right and righteous about everything.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
    When was your 2nd jab?
    June 26th, so the timetable makes complete sense. Assuming that one thinks that allowing people to book after five months but forcing them still to wait the full six for an appointment makes any sense, of course.

    If hurrying up the administration of the boosters is the primary aim of the exercise then quite why the gap is still in place, God alone knows.
    Tricky. I assume it's a balance where six months is felt to be the optimum gap.

    If it reduced to, say four months we're all looking at three boosters a year rather than two. People will get vaccine-weary.
    No guarantee we will need regular boosting. It could be that three is the magic number.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    geoffw said:

    Either Katya Adler is taller than I thought or Michal Husein is smaller. Or both.

    Michal is quite short. I've seen her in Snappy Snaps.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    Old people, eh!

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    geoffw said:

    BigRich said:

    In other Covid related new:

    German has reputed 76,132 new cases and 315 new deaths, their highest number of new cases in the whole pandemic.

    Schrecklich.
    And France up to 33k - the highest for them, since last winter. How long can they both resist lockdown?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    IshmaelZ said:

    geoffw said:

    Either Katya Adler is taller than I thought or Michal Husein is smaller. Or both.

    you are discounting for closer/further away, I trust?
    Yes, the camera panned round them.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    Is he also a Corbyn fan? There's a bit of a correlation between the two in my experience.
    And this is not to attack Corbyn fans especially. This problem is in every corner of politics.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    See my post. It’s a theory that Skripal was targeted as they lived near a Porton Down, above all else, so it’s not a coincidence.
    I don’t really see what we gained from an inside job. It cost millions and to what end? The sad death of a women from Amesbury and the loss of a good police officer from the force.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,186

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
    When was your 2nd jab?
    June 26th, so the timetable makes complete sense. Assuming that one thinks that allowing people to book after five months but forcing them still to wait the full six for an appointment makes any sense, of course.

    If hurrying up the administration of the boosters is the primary aim of the exercise then quite why the gap is still in place, God alone knows.
    Tricky. I assume it's a balance where six months is felt to be the optimum gap.

    If it reduced to, say four months we're all looking at three boosters a year rather than two. People will get vaccine-weary.
    Six months or so is reckoned to be optimal, in the abstract. However, we don't live in the abstract, and taking that down to five months (as Ireland and some other countries are doing) looks a no-brainer to me, given all the other factors. The six months is only approximate, and getting more people triple-jabbed should be a top priority now, IMO.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
    2 mins if that on Sky about it. With the concluding remark that the flight ban is really shit for people with family in South Africa so close before Christmas. They’re now showing a happy looking Alsatian in the new army Ranger division.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    Andy_JS said:

    The Spectator has done an interview with French presidential candidate Éric Zemmour.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ5lw4VeKpo

    He has fallen back a bit.

    Latest poll for 1st round

    Macron 25%
    Le Pen 20%
    Bertrand 13%
    Zemmour 12%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1463958360550785027?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    I am happy to report that I am feeling a little better. Tho I have had an enormous gin and tonic and several other painkillers. Perhaps my mini-cytokine storm has passed. Now can everyone please stop hyper-vemtilating about Nu

    Which reminds me, my ex girlfriend used to call her naughty bits "my Nunu"

    I am not sure of the relevance of this, but I'm just punting it out there
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia. If you start from a point of scepticism about the UK government, and someone offers you that story, what can possibly convince you?
    People shortcut to authorities, believing what a trusted figure tells them. Which might be problematic. Frequently.

    This is why the resistance to the "lab" theory. It was put about by Donald Trump. Donald Trump's other notable contributions to the public understanding of Covid was that it wasn't in America (it was), it was going to disappear (it didn't), and that bleach or somehow exposing your insides to sunlight cure you (not advisable). Oh and the various quack cures he and his acolytes pushed. In that context, when he says without backing it up that it came from a lab, do you believe him? Of course not. And when someone later says to you "ooh it might have come from a lab!", all you can think is "bleach, sunlight, shut the fuck up."

    We're all caught in a position of having to rely on SOMEONE for information, and we all use heuristics - mental shortcuts - to quickly assess whether something is worth thinking about. If your heuristic is "I only head this from Donald Trump so it's probably bollocks", then that's very understandable. It might sometimes lead you astray because even Donald fucking Trump is right sometimes, but there has to be some pathway to something you really trust. And in these furious, polarised times, authority is patchy.
    On the Salisbury attacks I read somewhere that Skripal wasn’t the point, it was to do an attack near Porton Down. No idea if that’s true. Bloody lucky for the Skripals and the copper though, thanks to the expertise on hand and regular contact between the local nhs and DSTL. No coincidence that they lived after a supposedly lethal attack.
    That's the stuff. It's like Covid. Slight mutations of the story and they travel well in some populations. And then you have people round the watercooler earnestly arguing about whether it was a false flag, a targeted assassination attempt, a botched experiment, an accident, aliens, or entirely made up by Dominic Cummings to distract from something else. And how the hell do any of us pick our way through that? Trust is the answer. And we all trust different people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    Is he also a Corbyn fan? There's a bit of a correlation between the two in my experience.
    He is, which is also a bit odd as he's been everything from Tory to LD to OMRLP and everything between in the past, so fervour was not expected. His wife is an even bigger Corbyn fan - visiting the saturday after GE2019 was an...interesting time I can tell you.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Case rise is still mostly in the unvaccinated children. @Malmesbury helpfully posts this up every day. In older, booster groups cases are declining. Admissions are down from over 1000 a day, to below 800. In hospital numbers are 2000 down from the recent peak. Things look like they are going in the right direction.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908
    BigRich said:

    In other Covid related new:

    German has reputed 76,132 new cases and 315 new deaths, their highest number of new cases in the whole pandemic.

    The German per capita case rate is currently following a very steep trajectory with no sign of slowing down. France, with it's additional restrictions, is demonstrating precisely the same pattern, only with a two week delay: German cases took off in mid-October, French ones at the end of the month.

    Ireland started going to pot around the beginning of October and is therefore in even worse shape than Germany. The rates in Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands all seem to have started climbing about the same time as Germany but have skyrocketed even faster. Spain and Portugal both seem to be going the way of France, but from a slightly lower base. Rates in Italy currently look as if they're increasing at a less alarming rate, but it's a bit soon to tell.

    The UK is an obvious outlier which, as we know, has been exhibiting moderately high but fluctuating infection rates continuously since July.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    In other Covid related new:

    German has reputed 76,132 new cases and 315 new deaths, their highest number of new cases in the whole pandemic.

    The German per capita case rate is currently following a very steep trajectory with no sign of slowing down. France, with it's additional restrictions, is demonstrating precisely the same pattern, only with a two week delay: German cases took off in mid-October, French ones at the end of the month.

    Ireland started going to pot around the beginning of October and is therefore in even worse shape than Germany. The rates in Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands all seem to have started climbing about the same time as Germany but have skyrocketed even faster. Spain and Portugal both seem to be going the way of France, but from a slightly lower base. Rates in Italy currently look as if they're increasing at a less alarming rate, but it's a bit soon to tell.

    The UK is an obvious outlier which, as we know, has been exhibiting moderately high but fluctuating infection rates continuously since July.
    At extreme risk of hubris, but maybe it was right to open up in July, and allow lots of cases? High price in deaths to now, maybe fewer for us in the next few months.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,341
    While we wait for the local by -elections results I can say that there are bullish comments coming out of the Lib Dem camp in North Shropshire. Their national campaign chief has arrived in the constituency and is staying for a few days. Some canvassers are reporting that the response is better than C and A - but that there are only 3 weeks left rather than 6 weeks.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    “Covid deniers”. And so starts your nuanced and fact based argument.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    Is he also a Corbyn fan? There's a bit of a correlation between the two in my experience.
    He is, which is also a bit odd as he's been everything from Tory to LD to OMRLP and everything between in the past, so fervour was not expected. His wife is an even bigger Corbyn fan - visiting the saturday after GE2019 was an...interesting time I can tell you.
    It's not odd. Corbyn was offering something fresh and interesting. It's just... it also came with something stale and discredited too. The man has two sides to him, and it's hard to see them both at once.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say let 'em crash.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    “Covid deniers”. And so starts your nuanced and fact based argument.
    Oh, you're one of those covid denier deniers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
    Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
    When was your 2nd jab?
    June 26th, so the timetable makes complete sense. Assuming that one thinks that allowing people to book after five months but forcing them still to wait the full six for an appointment makes any sense, of course.

    If hurrying up the administration of the boosters is the primary aim of the exercise then quite why the gap is still in place, God alone knows.
    Tricky. I assume it's a balance where six months is felt to be the optimum gap.

    If it reduced to, say four months we're all looking at three boosters a year rather than two. People will get vaccine-weary.
    No guarantee we will need regular boosting. It could be that three is the magic number.
    Let's hope so.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    slade said:

    While we wait for the local by -elections results I can say that there are bullish comments coming out of the Lib Dem camp in North Shropshire. Their national campaign chief has arrived in the constituency and is staying for a few days. Some canvassers are reporting that the response is better than C and A - but that there are only 3 weeks left rather than 6 weeks.

    under 40%
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,743
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
    2 mins if that on Sky about it. With the concluding remark that the flight ban is really shit for people with family in South Africa so close before Christmas. They’re now showing a happy looking Alsatian in the new army Ranger division.
    Why are we recruiting from France for the Ranger unit?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 734
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.

    I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
    That's what they said on News at 10 on the BBC. I am not sure how many of the infections are sequenced in SA though. I don't think that anyone on the planet is doing as many as us.

    What this alarm, which will hopefully not amount to anything, shows is that any delusions about fortress UK are just that. We need to step up and make a material contribution to vaccinating the world and reducing the depth of the pools of infection where these new variants can so easily develop.
    The idea that we can meaningfully impact vaccination rates of seven billion people is ridiculous. Especially when we need 3 or 4 jabs a pop.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    way to sound like a boring crank. WTF is a covid denier, and who here actually is one?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Case rise is still mostly in the unvaccinated children. @Malmesbury helpfully posts this up every day. In older, booster groups cases are declining. Admissions are down from over 1000 a day, to below 800. In hospital numbers are 2000 down from the recent peak. Things look like they are going in the right direction.
    Precisely. Reporting of the situation with cases lacks nuance, because nuance would mitigate against panic and reduce the attention garnered by these daily doom reports.

    Cases in the over-60s are currently in decline (a fact probably not entirely unrelated to the progress of the booster campaign.) Cases in children are still increasing, but everybody save for the most extreme doom merchants has long since ceased to care about cases in children. Even the teaching unions appear to have given up banging the drum for masks and other countermeasures in classrooms. Again, we've had panic clickbait headlines for months about how cases in children might translate into a tidal wave of sick grandparents, and no such thing has happened.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,652

    Jane Merrick
    @janemerrick23
    BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”


    Hurrah!!!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    “Covid deniers”. And so starts your nuanced and fact based argument.
    I think you are talking 'moonshine' there. Wake up and see what's happening.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    edited November 25
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Spectator has done an interview with French presidential candidate Éric Zemmour.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ5lw4VeKpo

    He has fallen back a bit.

    Latest poll for 1st round

    Macron 25%
    Le Pen 20%
    Bertrand 13%
    Zemmour 12%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1463958360550785027?s=20
    Zemmour is going to have to start doing better if R4 are to sustain their in-depth hystericising over him all the the way to next April. Mind you the mileage they got out of AfD floating about on 12%..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    “Covid deniers”. And so starts your nuanced and fact based argument.
    I think you are talking 'moonshine' there. Wake up and see what's happening.
    Yeah, sheeple, smell the coffee.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    Is he also a Corbyn fan? There's a bit of a correlation between the two in my experience.
    He is, which is also a bit odd as he's been everything from Tory to LD to OMRLP and everything between in the past, so fervour was not expected. His wife is an even bigger Corbyn fan - visiting the saturday after GE2019 was an...interesting time I can tell you.
    It's not odd. Corbyn was offering something fresh and interesting. It's just... it also came with something stale and discredited too. The man has two sides to him, and it's hard to see them both at once.
    But that's just it, surely Corbyn wasn't offering anything fresh and interesting to someone who had been a voter back in the 70s and 80s, since while in actuality there were plenty of policy differences, his whole schtick was 'I have kept my principles unchanged for 40 years'?

    Corbyn had a relatively engaging, mild manner, and I can understand him seeming fresh to younger voters, but crusty, cynical 70 year olds who weren't fans of that direction previously? Sure, maybe switching to him and the party, but the point of embracing conspiracy theories around the counting of votes on GE night (oh yes)?

    Not to traduce the old man too much, he's ok as fathers go, but at times he confounds me.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 90

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    1) There appears to be a new variant of concern. We know next to nothing about it. Reasonable worst case is it we have to endure a lockdown until adapted vaccines get deployed, which shouldn't take too long.

    2) The government should do nothing until there is a proven link between this variant and increased rate of hospital admissions. Even then, the response should consider whether admissions will overwhelm the NHS.

    Otherwise we shall be in thrall to mini Covid panics for evermore.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Spectator has done an interview with French presidential candidate Éric Zemmour.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ5lw4VeKpo

    He has fallen back a bit.

    Latest poll for 1st round

    Macron 25%
    Le Pen 20%
    Bertrand 13%
    Zemmour 12%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1463958360550785027?s=20
    Zemmour is going to have to start doing better if R4 are to sustain their in-depth hystericising over him all the the way to next April. Mind you the mileage they got out of AfD floating about on 12%..
    Runoff polling shows Macron does worse against Le Pen and Bertrand than Zemmour, so Macron too will be hoping for a Zemmour recovery
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    slade said:

    While we wait for the local by -elections results I can say that there are bullish comments coming out of the Lib Dem camp in North Shropshire. Their national campaign chief has arrived in the constituency and is staying for a few days. Some canvassers are reporting that the response is better than C and A - but that there are only 3 weeks left rather than 6 weeks.

    Who had 'bullish' in their by-election bingo card?

    'Brisk' is not allowed as an option, too obvious.

    I like these by-elections as there's so little to go on, as party's can be wildly wrong about their own canvassing (sometimes to their own advantage even), so even 'expected' results are usually at least still up in the air.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908

    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    In other Covid related new:

    German has reputed 76,132 new cases and 315 new deaths, their highest number of new cases in the whole pandemic.

    The German per capita case rate is currently following a very steep trajectory with no sign of slowing down. France, with it's additional restrictions, is demonstrating precisely the same pattern, only with a two week delay: German cases took off in mid-October, French ones at the end of the month.

    Ireland started going to pot around the beginning of October and is therefore in even worse shape than Germany. The rates in Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands all seem to have started climbing about the same time as Germany but have skyrocketed even faster. Spain and Portugal both seem to be going the way of France, but from a slightly lower base. Rates in Italy currently look as if they're increasing at a less alarming rate, but it's a bit soon to tell.

    The UK is an obvious outlier which, as we know, has been exhibiting moderately high but fluctuating infection rates continuously since July.
    At extreme risk of hubris, but maybe it was right to open up in July, and allow lots of cases? High price in deaths to now, maybe fewer for us in the next few months.
    One's never 100% sure of anything with this rotten disease, but it looks very much like an accumulation of junking the restrictions, letting it rip through the schools in early Autumn, and the initial head start in mass jabbing oldies and the very vulnerable, which means that most of them have already been boosted. And if you loathe the Government and don't want to give it the credit of anything then you can attribute the decision to drop masks and distancing to the intercession of Whitty and Valance, and their explanation of wanting to get the exit wave over with before Winter.

    AIUI a wobbly case rate such as is being seen in the UK at the moment is what one ought to expect from the virus as it finds its endemic level within the population.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
    It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
    It's for reasons like this that some find it hard to really know what's true or not. I mean, some people were saying the Salisbury attacks might be related to Porton Down rather than Russia.
    My father believes that one. Apparently there is the will and skill to undertake such a phony operation, and cover it up with all the people who would need to be involved, but it'd just be far too inconvenient to have it happen more than a few miles from Porton Down to allay suspicion.

    He's gotten really into conspiracy theories as he's gotten older for some reason.
    Is he also a Corbyn fan? There's a bit of a correlation between the two in my experience.
    He is, which is also a bit odd as he's been everything from Tory to LD to OMRLP and everything between in the past, so fervour was not expected. His wife is an even bigger Corbyn fan - visiting the saturday after GE2019 was an...interesting time I can tell you.
    It's not odd. Corbyn was offering something fresh and interesting. It's just... it also came with something stale and discredited too. The man has two sides to him, and it's hard to see them both at once.
    But that's just it, surely Corbyn wasn't offering anything fresh and interesting to someone who had been a voter back in the 70s and 80s, since while in actuality there were plenty of policy differences, his whole schtick was 'I have kept my principles unchanged for 40 years'?

    Corbyn had a relatively engaging, mild manner, and I can understand him seeming fresh to younger voters, but crusty, cynical 70 year olds who weren't fans of that direction previously? Sure, maybe switching to him and the party, but the point of embracing conspiracy theories around the counting of votes on GE night (oh yes)?

    Not to traduce the old man too much, he's ok as fathers go, but at times he confounds me.
    Fresh in the sense of "a breath of fresh air". Even if you've had plenty of that in the past, you still notice it when you get away from the stink of the city. But I'm in danger of justifying someone else's opinion here... I didn't like him and couldn't vote for him. I just know what he meant/means to people I know.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    geoffw said:

     BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.

    Almost 20 mins into the News at 10 on Sky. We’re still on dinghies.
    This will change. Give it a day

    It is already THE headline in the Guardian. British TV news is slow
    2 mins if that on Sky about it. With the concluding remark that the flight ban is really shit for people with family in South Africa so close before Christmas. They’re now showing a happy looking Alsatian in the new army Ranger division.
    Why are we recruiting from France for the Ranger unit?
    I think you're barking up the wrong tree there.
  • Leon said:

    I am happy to report that I am feeling a little better. Tho I have had an enormous gin and tonic and several other painkillers. Perhaps my mini-cytokine storm has passed. Now can everyone please stop hyper-vemtilating about Nu

    Which reminds me, my ex girlfriend used to call her naughty bits "my Nunu"

    I am not sure of the relevance of this, but I'm just punting it out there

    Noo Noo was the vacuum cleaner in the Teletubbies?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
    But this isn't clickbait https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-529-identified-in-botswana-as-scientists-play-down-concerns-12478164

    I know that people wish it were not so but the situation is far from rosy even without this new variant. Cases have been steadily rising (9.5% for example in the last week) and there's plenty of evidence that boosters are essential. We're starting to see breakthrough infections of the double vaccinated.

    What's really good though is that this time the Government have ignored those who, eighteen months ago, came out with mocking 'panic, panic, panic' posts only to be proved very stupid as covid swept through.

    Tough times still lie ahead. I wish it were not so.
    Agreed. I see the COVID deniers on here who normally jump up and down on me at this stage of the evening aren't doing so today. They know.

    I wish it wasn't the case. But we have to be realistic.
    “Covid deniers”. And so starts your nuanced and fact based argument.
    I think you are talking 'moonshine' there. Wake up and see what's happening.
    Yeah, sheeple, smell the coffee.
    Not smelling the coffee a Covid symptom I think.
  • pingping Posts: 1,429
    edited November 25
    Bollox to Nu

    As I’ve said before, the markets do look incredibly optimistic, given the risk of a variant like Nu.
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