"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences
This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck
I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu
No, this isn't the nightmare scenario. The nightmare is that a new completely vaccine evading variant that can still infect people is found first in the UK and suddenly everyone closes their borders to us. We almost had that with Alpha and Delta but ultimately both of those had little to no efficacy dilution.
That's my personal nightmare, I think I'd feel trapped.
Yes. I already feel quite trapped. I haven't seen my daughter in Oz for 2 years. This could easily extend that by another two years, as the Zero Covid countries respond allergically
As I say, foreign travel could now collapse almost entirely
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Gotta get your flint somewhere. Although weirdly @Leon must be good, as the defining feature of knapped flint is it’s sharp, which is not ideal for the uses he targets...
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
The PM has written to Macron formally requesting: - UK Border Force to be allowed to patrol French waters - Joint patrols of French beaches that could involve UK private security guards rather than Border Force to overcome Macron's concerns on sovereignty - Use of ground sensors https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1463973204456878080
He'll probably say no as I doubt that would play well, but surely he has to at least attempt to engage with the French about it and that is what he is doing?
Seeing it in terms of begging and/or triumphing over the other is probably one reason the issue crops up every few years, since leaders on both sides find it more useful to posture than to sort it out long term.
The Borises and Macrons of the world love it when the media and public see everything in terms of political gamesmanship, of demands and begging and pleading, as it helps their own petty dramas.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
Awesome Neolithic pun there.
Apologies Leon. I was associated flint with something sharp like a knife, I guess things have moved on since the Stone Age. And to be honest I can’t remember us going through the gift shop at Grime Graves. I tried googling some, but I can imagine it I think. You will say it’s very hard, but is it also very smooth? Can it stand up as an ornament? Do you do doubles for two people at once?
How do you sell them? Are you on eBay? Is it just a standard, people can stretch what they want over it I guess. or If you wanted it like an ornament too is foreskin on or foreskin off is option on the form?
I have spoken to my friend and we are interested. Can you post a link please to the site?
So you are a bit of an artist like me really? I am post grad and was at the RCA over the river but not now.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
I wonder if Eadric's hermetically sealed basement bolt hole in Penarth is currently vacant? Sounds like you might need it to be on the safe side.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
Er, one does. Glacial erratics.
Good brand name for Leon ?
One of the most famous typos in history was a book of geology (IIRC) which described a flood plain as being "strewn with erotic blacks". Clearly they meant "erratic blocks"
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Gotta get your flint somewhere. Although weirdly @Leon must be good, as the defining feature of knapped flint is it’s sharp, which is not ideal for the uses he targets...
One would think mammoth or straight-tusked elephant ivory would be more suitable. Ah, I see I'm not the only one with that sentiment -
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true
That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched
FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
Its 30 sleeps until Christmas so not much of the year left.
At least the Cricketers are already in Australia for the Ashes so that won't be cancelled now.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true
That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched
FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true
That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched
FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
Yep, with you 100%.
Been there, done that, too.
I agree this probably means another two years of various spoonfuls of shit. IF the Nu evades the vax as suggested. Really not not not good
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
Nothing in that to suggest anything more than we have gleaned from twitter. Lots of might and may. Let’s see. I’d note that cases are very low in SA and with a low vaccination rate too. It may be a huge problem, but we don’t know yet.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true
That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched
FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
Yep, with you 100%.
Been there, done that, too.
I agree this probably means another two years of various spoonfuls of shit. IF the Nu evades the vax as suggested. Really not not not good
It could be even worse than that
I am literally saying a little prayer
Totally agree and, yes, me too.
Funnily enough I was thinking about you a couple of nights back when I was out in town at a vibey restaurant, few masks, wondering if some semblance of normality was returning.
But the world is far from 'normal.' My brother's just returned from Paris which he found a sometimes 'tricky' experience and commented that he's not sure if in his lifetime it will ever return to how it was pre-covid.
The lights went out all over Europe and they won't be relit for some time.
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
So, Man U are having a remarkably crap season but managed to qualify for the next round of the CL. Any now you tell me international travel is ending? That would just be typical, wouldn't it? Absolutely typical.
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
Headline: Super-mutant could make Covid vaccines 40% less effective! Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!
Report: unidentified "Government scientists" say it could make vaccines 40% less effective at preventing infection. Which is exactly what we might expect if Covid-19 was gradually turning into a virtually harmless cold virus.
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
Nothing in that to suggest anything more than we have gleaned from twitter. Lots of might and may. Let’s see. I’d note that cases are very low in SA and with a low vaccination rate too. It may be a huge problem, but we don’t know yet.
I think that's what we have to find out, what are the circumstances on the ground in these areas that have Nu. Are vaccination rates really low? Are they using Sinovac (which we know is pretty poor even with three doses)? Is it spreading in urbanised areas with very high population density? Is it spreading among those with HIV/AIDS?
There are just so many variables that don't translate to the UK.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
Not quite:
Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)
Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
This is wrong. Yes, if it's highly transmissible, it's coming eventually. But there's a big difference between starting your exponential growth this week, and starting it a couple of months later, when more people will be triple jabbed, and we might even be close to having vaccines targeted at the new variant.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
I think foreign travel is over as long as we have COVID. You don't want to have to quarantine in a hotel room in a foreign country at your own expense, or otherwise be stuck somewhere indefinetly with a large quarantine hotel bill on your eventual return; as would be the case now if you went to south africa. I mentioned that I was in Europe last week and Covid was everywhere; I stayed with friends in a town where everyone was being pinged.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
Not quite:
Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)
Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
Yes, Javid definitely strikes me as a travel and lockdown hawk. My guess is that if he was the health secretary in Feb/March 2020 we would have tried the NZ/Oz method.
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
Well it’s certainly bumped Biden’s jfk cover up out of the news. And the abruptly announced new Pentagon ufo unit.
Anyway I have officially run out of red wine. What a cataclysm. Might as well go to bed as I am far outside the delivery zone of your super app that delivers red wine in 20 mins.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
This is wrong. Yes, if it's highly transmissible, it's coming eventually. But there's a big difference between starting your exponential growth this week, and starting it a couple of months later, when more people will be triple jabbed, and we might even be close to having vaccines targeted at the new variant.
Yes, getting 30m triple jabbed before it significantly arrives vs it arriving with 16m triple jabbed will make a big difference, maybe even the difference between lockdown and not lockdown. That's a fair point.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
Only on PB...
You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.
Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
Not quite:
Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)
Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
Two Joburg to London flights are in the air now, a couple of hours into their journey and still to cross the Equator, and landing around 6-7 am tomorrow. I take it those will be the last to land.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
Eventually, yes. But my understanding from the discussions back when delta-related travel bans were on the table was that a ban on travel from new-variant hotspots could buy you time, because if you have 100 or so carriers who came in via third countries that places you N doubling-times less far along than if you let unrestricted planeloads in directly. A nasty variant being present in huge numbers here in late December is likely to be harder for the NHS to handle than if we manage to delay that wave into Spring, I think.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
Only on PB...
You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
This is wrong. Yes, if it's highly transmissible, it's coming eventually. But there's a big difference between starting your exponential growth this week, and starting it a couple of months later, when more people will be triple jabbed, and we might even be close to having vaccines targeted at the new variant.
I suppose that's a point.
Plus there's a big difference between starting it now and starting it in a couple of months time when we're past the winter peak.
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
Only on PB...
You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.
Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin
FFS. Calm down. We don’t know how bad, or otherwise, it is yet. Let’s wait and see.
I have sky news on. They are leading with dinghies and cold weather in the channel. A long segment. Then boris off to see macron about it. Followed by a little clip of the Saj talking about the Nu. Army reorganisation. And then some cheery reviews of Pete Jackson’s Beatles docco. No sign of panic from Sky News yet then.
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.
I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit
What a pity we live in interesting times
Similar also to the crazier Brexiteer reactions to people pointing out the downsides of Brexit.
Meanwhile I'm listening to Handel's Rodelinda. It really is superb.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.
Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
Computer now says yes! That's the good news. The bad news is that the booster appointment is for December 29th. As I said, painfully slow.
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
Here you go. I got it bang on
But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
The 'vaccines' are 'leaky' and don't stop a person catching the disease or passing it on. For the first 2-3 wks immunity may be lower than in an unvaccinated person. After maybe 5-6 months of elevated immunity, they're again useless.
Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on earth. Egypt has a low COVID rate and seems to have a vaccination rate of ... 13%.
If you're in a deep political hole, stop digging and look to your neighbours ... if they're not also in a hole.
There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit
What a pity we live in interesting times
It’s clearly a possibility, but by no means certain. My wife works at Porton Down (currently UKHSA, previously DSTL). Lots of very nasty stuff, with lots of precautions in place, and yet things do go wrong. I know stories about failures in nerve agent protocols and subsequent effects on staff that are not for the faint hearted. There is also the proven leaks from U.K. sites of e.g foot and mouth from Purbright. Almost impossible to know the truth.
Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.
I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Mice genetically engineered to express human proteins, to enable study of how pathogens etc interact with them.
Sounds like a perfectly normal thing to do to a mouse.
Useful as tools to help understand the universe. Not great from the perspective of the mouse. I doubt it’s much different to eating chickens though, in the scheme of things.
"Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
I have a friend who loves conspiracies but hates this idea too. I suspect it's because he, deep down, knows it to be true and so it isn't quite as fun as other theories.
Use the foot and mouth outbreak as an example. Came out a lab.
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
SARS escaped the same lab in China TWICE. A big flu epidemic in the 70s was almost certainly a lab escape from Russia as well. More generally serious lab accidents involving chemical, biological, and radioactive material are not uncommon.
I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
I can actually understand why virologists and epidemiologists (etc) are so fiercely if illogically resistant to the lab leak idea. If it is ever proved, it means their profession was responsible for killing millions and millions of people. It will also close down labs and careers
It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.
I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
Pretty sure that’s based on potential results based on PCR drop out rates. May be all Nu, may not be.
BBC News showing Macron speaking with a voice-over in English with a heavy French accent. I think they're taking their mission to entertain more seriously than to inform.
The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
“Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
I have a friend who loves conspiracies but hates this idea too. I suspect it's because he, deep down, knows it to be true and so it isn't quite as fun as other theories.
Use the foot and mouth outbreak as an example. Came out a lab.
It’s an amazing propaganda coup by the Chinese communists that this can even be described as a conspiracy theory. They are top of the ladder in PR that lot.
Only 59 cases identified. This virus is the most closely and rapidly examined in human history. We can only draw some hope from that.
I'm not sure that's true. Perhaps that means tests properly sequenced. SA today reports 2,400 cases or so, and it is thought 70-100% of them are Nu. There is no other reason for this sudden surge - doubling approximately every day
That's what they said on News at 10 on the BBC. I am not sure how many of the infections are sequenced in SA though. I don't think that anyone on the planet is doing as many as us.
What this alarm, which will hopefully not amount to anything, shows is that any delusions about fortress UK are just that. We need to step up and make a material contribution to vaccinating the world and reducing the depth of the pools of infection where these new variants can so easily develop.
Comments
As I say, foreign travel could now collapse almost entirely
BBC News - Covid: Africa travel restrictions over variant fear
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59424269
The moment people or even a country think they've got it beat, it comes back to bite.
We're a long long way from through this. I estimate we have another 2 years to go and some of that time is going to be tough, including this winter.
Sorry. Genuinely. It's wretched.
Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
"Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
Seeing it in terms of begging and/or triumphing over the other is probably one reason the issue crops up every few years, since leaders on both sides find it more useful to posture than to sort it out long term.
The Borises and Macrons of the world love it when the media and public see everything in terms of political gamesmanship, of demands and begging and pleading, as it helps their own petty dramas.
I'll give the Gov't their due. For once they have acted swiftly.
How do you sell them? Are you on eBay? Is it just a standard, people can stretch what they want over it I guess. or If you wanted it like an ornament too is foreskin on or foreskin off is option on the form?
I have spoken to my friend and we are interested. Can you post a link please to the site?
So you are a bit of an artist like me really? I am post grad and was at the RCA over the river but not now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perforated_baton
Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.
Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
Interesting article on its history (which I bet quite a few Americans aren’t aware of).
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/25/first-thanksgiving-political-fight-523357
That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched
FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Fucking covid.
Excuse the language.
http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-b11529-variant-worst-one-weve-seen-so-far-say-uk-experts-12478737
Been there, done that, too.
Aw naw, no Annoni on an aw noo.
It could be even worse than that
I am literally saying a little prayer
But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
Funnily enough I was thinking about you a couple of nights back when I was out in town at a vibey restaurant, few masks, wondering if some semblance of normality was returning.
But the world is far from 'normal.' My brother's just returned from Paris which he found a sometimes 'tricky' experience and commented that he's not sure if in his lifetime it will ever return to how it was pre-covid.
The lights went out all over Europe and they won't be relit for some time.
Report: unidentified "Government scientists" say it could make vaccines 40% less effective at preventing infection. Which is exactly what we might expect if Covid-19 was gradually turning into a virtually harmless cold virus.
It's clickbait. Ignore.
There are just so many variables that don't translate to the UK.
Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)
Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion
I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
Anyway I have officially run out of red wine. What a cataclysm. Might as well go to bed as I am far outside the delivery zone of your super app that delivers red wine in 20 mins.
Israel as well. The whole of the world will surely follow in the coming hours. Brutal for SA
Plus there's a big difference between starting it now and starting it in a couple of months time when we're past the winter peak.
OK I'll admit it: I was wrong on that one.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020
Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2?wprov=sfla1
What a pity we live in interesting times
I think science generally and medicine in particular has a problem accepting that human falibility renders extensive security and safety measures ineffective.
Meanwhile I'm listening to Handel's Rodelinda. It really is superb.
Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on earth. Egypt has a low COVID rate and seems to have a vaccination rate of ... 13%.
If you're in a deep political hole, stop digging and look to your neighbours ... if they're not also in a hole.
There's also a talk by John Campbell 'miracle in Japan'. What could have reduced COVID to almost zero, unlike Israel?
Difficult times ahead take care y'all 😡
Use the foot and mouth outbreak as an example. Came out a lab.
It is the non scientists who evince the same response that intrigue me. Arty types, generally lefty - but not always. They cannot cope with the idea it might be true, and, as moonshine says, it can make them really really angry. Is it Trump? A strange little behaviourism
What this alarm, which will hopefully not amount to anything, shows is that any delusions about fortress UK are just that. We need to step up and make a material contribution to vaccinating the world and reducing the depth of the pools of infection where these new variants can so easily develop.