Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com

135678

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 19,277

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    It occurs if the text outside the complete blockquote block does not contain any actual text...

    Best fix is just to delete the Blockquote when it happens and just post your comment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,109
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Max, who knows about vax, says it will take 9 months to develop and deliver a tweaked jab for any new variant. So no, I fear

    But we ARE promised the anti-virals in early 2022, and if they work as promised, we can still exit this fucking horrible crisis in short order

    And we still don't know how bad Nu is. What worries me is that people on Twitter who are usually quite sanguine are definitely anxious this time
    Certainly none of us are worried at your being anxious for the 1035th time…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

    China might have killed the world

    *eyes gin*

    Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

    Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

    There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

    One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

    (*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
    Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
    One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

    As for the 'favour', no.
    I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,003
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
    Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,445

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    edited November 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his post
    Thanks - I wasn't but a less than sign was causing the issue. 👍
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,865
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    No I didn't, have been busy so haven't had time to go through the comments.

    Thanks for filling me in and @Leon too.

    That's a bummer!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,769
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Even Chris Snowden is saying this now.

    Where is Shapps?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    It's possible that there is a little bit of efficacy dilution, I wouldn't bet against it anyway. I just don't think there's really anything to worry about either, at least not from our perspective of lockdowns or not lockdowns. Again, the only scenario where we lockdown is a completely vaccine evading variant and this is extremely unlikely. Think of it this way, if this variant brings booster efficacy down from 95% to 90% it's not going to make any real difference to our overall picture, we may need to bring in over 18s boosters sooner rather than later but it's not going to cause any lockdowns.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,374
    CatMan said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    No, we need it to troll people who when it's International Womens Day say "But why isn't there one for Men?"
    In my experience, the only people to highlight International Men's Day do so to use it as a platform to bang on about how beastly men are and how unfair everything is to women.
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    I remember my classmates who studied Latin showing me that very book!

    I on the other hand had this;

    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,865

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,146

    IshmaelZ said:

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his post
    Thanks - I wasn't but a less than sign was causing the issue. 👍
    Hoist by your own petard, I now see

    But I've still got it, if I can diagnose the problem after 2 Negronis.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
    Ha ha. Maybe cousin Greg, or Gerry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Even Chris Snowden is saying this now.

    Where is Shapps?
    On holiday in South Africa with any luck!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512
    edited November 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
    Not seen it, but one man's role model is another's cautionary tale?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,146
    Cookie said:

    CatMan said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    No, we need it to troll people who when it's International Womens Day say "But why isn't there one for Men?"
    In my experience, the only people to highlight International Men's Day do so to use it as a platform to bang on about how beastly men are and how unfair everything is to women.
    Not on here, there's a powerful lobby pointing out that women are forever beating the shit out of men but nobody wants to Address The Issue. Not happened to me yet but I'm so terrified I'm buying a rape alarm and a mace can.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,003

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.
    Genus northern working man is a simple soul. Just likes a drink, a smoke, a joke and a poke. Can't be doing with serious talk about business and stuff. If Johnson's shambolic CBI gig was indeed calculated, this would be the calculation. But I doubt that it was. I think Hyufd is stretching here.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.
    Genus northern working man is a simple soul. Just likes a drink, a smoke, a joke and a poke. Can't be doing with serious talk about business and stuff. If Johnson's shambolic CBI gig was indeed calculated, this would be the calculation. But I doubt that it was. I think Hyufd is stretching here.
    +1

    average Red Wall worker knows they've been promised a better future. In 2023 it needs to have been delivered and I suspect Boris & co will have failed to do so. Which means he will have a problem...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,341
    "UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

    But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    edited November 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his post
    Thanks - I wasn't but a less than sign was causing the issue. 👍
    Hoist by your own petard, I now see

    But I've still got it, if I can diagnose the problem after 2 Negronis.
    Fair play, but can you only diagnose the problem after < 3 Negronis?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,003
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.
    Genus northern working man is a simple soul. Just likes a drink, a smoke, a joke and a poke. Can't be doing with serious talk about business and stuff. If Johnson's shambolic CBI gig was indeed calculated, this would be the calculation. But I doubt that it was. I think Hyufd is stretching here.
    +1

    average Red Wall worker knows they've been promised a better future. In 2023 it needs to have been delivered and I suspect Boris & co will have failed to do so. Which means he will have a problem...
    Yes, important he gets sussed by them if - which for me is a when - he delivers nothing for them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,146

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his post
    Thanks - I wasn't but a less than sign was causing the issue. 👍
    Hoist by your own petard, I now see

    But I've still got it, if I can diagnose the problem after 2 Negronis.
    Fair play, but can you only diagnose the problem after fewer than 3 Negronis?
    Not born yesterday
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    A bottle of Hermitage might help mebbe?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
  • Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    A bottle of Hermitage might help mebbe?
    I actually feel too shit to move to the wine rack. This is unusual

    Isn't it true that the vaccine gives you a little dash of actual Covid symptoms? In which case Covid is bloody horrible, even in a mild form
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
    This morning, when I woke up, so about 18 hours after my jab. It's got progressively worse since

    I felt fine after the 2 AZ jabs, just a faint bit of tenderness where they spiked me. This is more like a bizarre flu
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    A bottle of Hermitage might help mebbe?
    I actually feel too shit to move to the wine rack. This is unusual

    Isn't it true that the vaccine gives you a little dash of actual Covid symptoms? In which case Covid is bloody horrible, even in a mild form
    It really is, had it last week in what must have been a relatively mild form, still felt like absolute shit.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    I may be an amateur as only got the idea from Wire and Narcos Mexico, but they could have made arrests anytime, but waiting to get big fish. This human disaster forced them prematurely into arrests?

    But even in my theory, Starmer is still wrong in what he said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    Still far better than all the other recent polls, a clear swingback to the Tories compared to them as the latest poll
  • kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
    Not seen it, but one man's role model is another's cautionary tale?
    The main characters are a psychopathic media mogul and his grasping, back-stabbing and incredibly damaged children. It is absolutely compelling drama and a brilliant satire on power and money but none of the main characters are people you would want to spend more than five minutes with, let alone emulate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    Also not good. This looks like exponential growth of a new wave



    [BREAKING NEWS] South Africa records 2,465 new COVID-19 cases. Death toll rises by 114 to 89,771. Positivity rate surges to 6.5%. More details on #eNCA #DStv403


    https://twitter.com/eNCA/status/1463923237285470215?s=20
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
    This morning, when I woke up, so about 18 hours after my jab. It's got progressively worse since

    I felt fine after the 2 AZ jabs, just a faint bit of tenderness where they spiked me. This is more like a bizarre flu
    Maybe you have caught actual Covid concurrently?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,445

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
    Not seen it, but one man's role model is another's cautionary tale?
    The main characters are a psychopathic media mogul and his grasping, back-stabbing and incredibly damaged children. It is absolutely compelling drama and a brilliant satire on power and money but none of the main characters are people you would want to spend more than five minutes with, let alone emulate.
    Really?

    I've learned a lot from the show, and am a better business person, father and husband from watching it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,315

    "UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

    But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

    image

    Curiously absent from their website:

    https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Governance/President/Former-Presidents
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,445

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
    That was pretty much my experience too.

    Plus a few days of sore arm.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,595
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
    Keep an eye on Kate Forbes. Unless she has the sense (which she might) not to want it. If you are looking for someone who is the personality type shadow to both Salmond and Boris, Kate is your lady. Cleaning Augean stables a speciality.

    Against her (we live in a wicked world) is that she is religiously traditional, and SFAICS unafraid to say so.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
    Not seen it, but one man's role model is another's cautionary tale?
    The main characters are a psychopathic media mogul and his grasping, back-stabbing and incredibly damaged children. It is absolutely compelling drama and a brilliant satire on power and money but none of the main characters are people you would want to spend more than five minutes with, let alone emulate.
    A friend of mine has married into an extremely famous and inconceivably wealthy family. He says Succession is so accurate it comes across as documentary. This is what *they* are like. The sibling rivalry is horrendous and the money is corrosive
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?
    Not seen it, but one man's role model is another's cautionary tale?
    The main characters are a psychopathic media mogul and his grasping, back-stabbing and incredibly damaged children. It is absolutely compelling drama and a brilliant satire on power and money but none of the main characters are people you would want to spend more than five minutes with, let alone emulate.
    A friend of mine has married into an extremely famous and inconceivably wealthy family. He says Succession is so accurate it comes across as documentary. This is what *they* are like. The sibling rivalry is horrendous and the money is corrosive
    You really shouldn't share @Charles's confidences on here.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    Still far better than all the other recent polls, a clear swingback to the Tories compared to them as the latest poll
    Surely someone who comments on opinion polls should know that the only sane way to track them is to treat each poll company differently because they all have different selection and adjustment criteria. Which is why most (sane) people compare each company's polls with the historic polls of that firm...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    It's definitely time to be concerned, but not yet time to panic and run naked to Tottenham Hale


    Jane Merrick
    @janemerrick23
    ·
    1h
    NEW on Nu: UK medical experts are meeting to discuss whether South Africa should face travel restrictions given the very rapid developments on B.1.1.529, as first reported by
    @theipaper
    yesterday


    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463929866974343174?s=20
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,511
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
    Keep an eye on Kate Forbes. Unless she has the sense (which she might) not to want it. If you are looking for someone who is the personality type shadow to both Salmond and Boris, Kate is your lady. Cleaning Augean stables a speciality.

    Against her (we live in a wicked world) is that she is religiously traditional, and SFAICS unafraid to say so.

    An issue in the Trans "debate", perhaps.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
    HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    RobD said:

    "UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

    But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

    image

    Curiously absent from their website:

    https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Governance/President/Former-Presidents
    They were all Austrians in the early days - was Interpol just Austria and, er, the 3rd Reich?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676
    Eabhal said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
    Keep an eye on Kate Forbes. Unless she has the sense (which she might) not to want it. If you are looking for someone who is the personality type shadow to both Salmond and Boris, Kate is your lady. Cleaning Augean stables a speciality.

    Against her (we live in a wicked world) is that she is religiously traditional, and SFAICS unafraid to say so.

    An issue in the Trans "debate", perhaps.
    Perhaps. But she's got some way already. A neatly dressed lady as opposed to a male clown in an ill-fitting suit is a good look to have, too.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,511
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
    HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.
    Doesn't this suggest that the '14 question was leading?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
    HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.
    Not so different at all, including DKs only 3% difference, both showing Yes below 2014 levels
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
    HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.
    Doesn't this suggest that the '14 question was leading?
    Dinner just ready, so don't have time to check. But he certainly this morning was scrabbling together odd percentages quite illegitimately (the maths I mean not HYUFD) and still didn't get a result like that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    IT is the Second Rule of Covid Hubris all over again. Every single bloody time

    You think you got it beat, it comes back to bite. Eesh
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,511
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
    Keep an eye on Kate Forbes. Unless she has the sense (which she might) not to want it. If you are looking for someone who is the personality type shadow to both Salmond and Boris, Kate is your lady. Cleaning Augean stables a speciality.

    Against her (we live in a wicked world) is that she is religiously traditional, and SFAICS unafraid to say so.

    An issue in the Trans "debate", perhaps.
    Perhaps. But she's got some way already. A neatly dressed lady as opposed to a male clown in an ill-fitting suit is a good look to have, too.
    And apparently a strong local base.

    Robertson/Edinburgh/woke coalition v Forbes/middle Scotland/trad
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,138

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

    “In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
    HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.
    Not so different at all, including DKs only 3% difference, both showing Yes below 2014 levels
    Not allowed to use DKs. Any fule kno that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
    Keep an eye on Kate Forbes. Unless she has the sense (which she might) not to want it. If you are looking for someone who is the personality type shadow to both Salmond and Boris, Kate is your lady. Cleaning Augean stables a speciality.

    Against her (we live in a wicked world) is that she is religiously traditional, and SFAICS unafraid to say so.

    An issue in the Trans "debate", perhaps.
    Perhaps. But she's got some way already. A neatly dressed lady as opposed to a male clown in an ill-fitting suit is a good look to have, too.
    And apparently a strong local base.

    Robertson/Edinburgh/woke coalition v Forbes/middle Scotland/trad
    Mphm. That's exactly the pair I have in mind. But other horses can appear.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,315

    RobD said:

    "UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

    But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

    image

    Curiously absent from their website:

    https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Governance/President/Former-Presidents
    They were all Austrians in the early days - was Interpol just Austria and, er, the 3rd Reich?
    From their wiki page it says that other members left after the Nazi takover when it was moved to Berlin. Only became operational again in the 50s.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
    You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676
    eek said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
    You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.
    Or the time when a poll gave Yes a lead in indyref2 and he loudly claimed that the polling company must have been bribed or something.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,038
    Tottenham. :lol:
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,511
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
    You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.
    Or the time when a poll gave Yes a lead in indyref2 and he loudly claimed that the polling company must have been bribed or something.
    Wasn't there an issue in some of the Indy polling? It all had to get revised?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    A bottle of Hermitage might help mebbe?
    I actually feel too shit to move to the wine rack. This is unusual

    Isn't it true that the vaccine gives you a little dash of actual Covid symptoms? In which case Covid is bloody horrible, even in a mild form
    If how I felt after my first AZ is a sample of Covid, I would tend to agree. I used to have a couple of glasses of wine a night and go to bed at 1230 ish, but was in bed sober (bar 2 paracetamol every 4 hours) for a week at 10pm after that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,742

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    (Ha bolockquote - what a typo, eh?)

    A couple of times,
    If you copy your comment, refresh the page, and then paste the comment in the now empty comment box, it seems to fix the problem.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,146
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    But an idiot savant. A couple of posters miss the savant bit
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,013
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
    That was pretty much my experience too.

    Plus a few days of sore arm.
    A week of crushing headaches and dizziness for me post my Pfizer booster (post AZN). To the extent my wife was on about phoning 111. Feel alright now though. Probably I shouldn’t have got shitfaced on whisky the day I had it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,341

    RobD said:

    "UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

    But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

    image

    Curiously absent from their website:

    https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Governance/President/Former-Presidents
    They were all Austrians in the early days - was Interpol just Austria and, er, the 3rd Reich?
    Started in Vienna, IIRC

    Between 1938 and 1945 the list of presidents included - Otto Steinhäusl, Arthur Nebe, Ernst Kaltenbrunner as well as our friend above....

    That's quite a lineup.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
    You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.
    Or the time when a poll gave Yes a lead in indyref2 and he loudly claimed that the polling company must have been bribed or something.
    Wasn't there an issue in some of the Indy polling? It all had to get revised?
    Don't recall that. Maybe that was a different poll.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,013
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,511
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
    That was pretty much my experience too.

    Plus a few days of sore arm.
    A week of crushing headaches and dizziness for me post my Pfizer booster (post AZN). To the extent my wife was on about phoning 111. Feel alright now though. Probably I shouldn’t have got shitfaced on whisky the day I had it.
    Haha, my side effects kicked in halfway up a mountain after a night at the pub. Not fun.
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

    “In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”
    "In pictura" I think... It would take the ablative.
    I seem to remember Marcus and Sextus featuring prominently too (maybe this is where Jacob Rees Mogg went for inspiration when he was naming his children).
  • kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
    Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.
    English Nats are a passionate, idealistic people driven by justified outrage at the tyranny of vacuum cleaner rules and suchlike, Scotch Nats are cunning, calculating folk caring only about how much they can screw out of the generous English and unconcerned by issues such as basic democracy.

    As we all know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,742

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

    China might have killed the world

    *eyes gin*

    Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

    Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

    There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

    One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

    (*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
    Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
    One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

    As for the 'favour', no.
    I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
    Doubt it.
    Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
    Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,281


    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

    You're very kind but after this afternoon at Lingfield the only thing for which I can now claim any expertise is handing my cash to the bookies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

    “In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”
    "In pictura" I think... It would take the ablative.
    I seem to remember Marcus and Sextus featuring prominently too (maybe this is where Jacob Rees Mogg went for inspiration when he was naming his children).
    Lucky sods. The first thing I had to learn was the table table. The declensions of mensa, which corresponded rouighly

    A/the table [as subject]
    O table (as in asking it out for the evening)
    table [as object]
    of a/the table
    to the table (as in give a Christmas present to)
    by the table

    This really blew my 10 year old mind ...
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    The good doctor Pagel has noted how this particular bastard variant can be quite easily tracked on PCR tests in near real time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,676

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
    Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.
    English Nats are a passionate, idealistic people driven by justified outrage at the tyranny of vacuum cleaner rules and suchlike, Scotch Nats are cunning, calculating folk caring only about how much they can screw out of the generous English and unconcerned by issues such as basic democracy.

    As we all know.
    Nononono. 'British'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
    HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.
    Not so different at all, including DKs only 3% difference, both showing Yes below 2014 levels
    Not allowed to use DKs. Any fule kno that.
    Most DKs went No in 2014, excluding them from polls then just meant the result was even worse for Nats
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,484
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
    Angus Robertson is waiting in the wings for when she goes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world @Leon is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    Amazing!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

    China might have killed the world

    *eyes gin*

    Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

    Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

    There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

    One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

    (*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
    Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
    One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

    As for the 'favour', no.
    I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
    Doubt it.
    Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
    Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
    In which case, we have indeed been lucky to have Covid!
  • Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
    Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.
    English Nats are a passionate, idealistic people driven by justified outrage at the tyranny of vacuum cleaner rules and suchlike, Scotch Nats are cunning, calculating folk caring only about how much they can screw out of the generous English and unconcerned by issues such as basic democracy.

    As we all know.
    Nononono. 'British'.
    I fear many are unable to discern the difference which is a lot of the problem.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,013
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    I’m old enough to remember when people thought we wouldn’t have had Delta if Boris Johnson hadn’t wanted to do a trade mission to India.

    Keep calm Leon. This is no longer a novel virus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

    Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?
    Maybe, but maybe not

    The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

    If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


    And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh
    Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.
    That was pretty much my experience too.

    Plus a few days of sore arm.
    A week of crushing headaches and dizziness for me post my Pfizer booster (post AZN). To the extent my wife was on about phoning 111. Feel alright now though. Probably I shouldn’t have got shitfaced on whisky the day I had it.
    I must admit I felt as if I'd got shit-faced on whisky the day after I had the Pfizer booster (post AZ)... but no whisky (or other alcohol) was involved in the making of that hangover.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,133
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:


    Still far better than all the other recent polls, a clear swingback to the Tories compared to them as the latest poll

    Surely someone who comments on opinion polls should know that the only sane way to track them is to treat each poll company differently because they all have different selection and adjustment criteria. Which is why most (sane) people compare each company's polls with the historic polls of that firm...
    As I've said before, one huge difference is the extent of questioning to check you're really going to vote. I did an Opinium one today. Where do you live? What's your postcode? What's your constituency within that postcode? How likely are you to vote? Put another way, would you vote? Did you vote last time? The time before? The time before that? The referendum? How will you vote? How did you vote last time? What about the time before? What about the referendum?

    I'm motivated, but I really wonder whether every party's supporters are equally motivated, and if there are differences, what bias they introduce. The obvious bias is to people who are really into politics, which perhaps favours whichever party is doing well?

    By contrast, as I recall, YouGov just asks you "How ya gonna vote?" or words to that effect.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world @Leon is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    Amazing!
    Me and.... the WHO, and South Africa, to be fair. And also that guy on the FT who is a highly reliable source of news





    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    ·
    9m
    Five quick tweets on the new variant B.1.1.529

    Caveat first: data here is *very* preliminary, so everything could change. Nonetheless, better safe than sorry.

    1) Based on the data we have, this variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did


    "Far faster than Delta"



    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956697408589824?s=20





  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    I’m old enough to remember when people thought we wouldn’t have had Delta if Boris Johnson hadn’t wanted to do a trade mission to India.

    Keep calm Leon. This is no longer a novel virus.
    I feel too ill to panic, so that's an unexpected upside

    I am just staring listlessly at the gin bottle, working up the energy to uncork it
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,436

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    The good doctor Pagel has noted how this particular bastard variant can be quite easily tracked on PCR tests in near real time.
    Feels mad to say it, but I think Leon is right that we need to act fast. Get S. Africa and nearby low sequencing onto the red list. Buys time for therapeutics & better understanding of whether vaccines are as effective against this one.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

    “In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”
    "In pictura" I think... It would take the ablative.
    I seem to remember Marcus and Sextus featuring prominently too (maybe this is where Jacob Rees Mogg went for inspiration when he was naming his children).
    It was the Cambridge Latin course for me. "Caecilius est pater." It was surprisingly moving actually seeing Caecilius's domus in Pompeii.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Far Right group protesting outside the new Islamic Food Hall in Romford

    https://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/business/romford-aklu-plaza-far-right-protests-condemned-8511336

    There is a letter doing the rounds on twitter claiming to be from Andrew Rosindell saying the planned Mosque on the third floor has been knocked back by the council. The store has delayed it's opening from December to sometime in 2022, which made me think the Moque being refused was the reason for the store not opening. I think the letter is fake though, it doesn't seem well written and might be circulated to make people like me put 2 and 2 together and make 5
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.
    I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.

    The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲

    And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.
This discussion has been closed.