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The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    eek said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
    You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.
    Yes missed it. That does sound wrong to push conspiracy theories here, not least it would be boring.

    When I was at college taking my degree people told me I understand politics very well. But then that’s a low bar. I was watching news, reading newspapers, The Spectator and Prospect, all they were on was Twitter, and they were showing me stuff that was really shocking them, but straight away I could see it wasn’t remotely balanced, it was actually written by the alien reptiles trying to take over the earth😉

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.
    I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.

    The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲

    And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.
    Sounds like the Cambridge Latin Course.

    https://www.clc.cambridgescp.com/home-clc
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,205
     
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.
    As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

    HYUFD is one of ours.
    But an idiot savant. A couple of posters miss the savant bit
    cf Marilyn vos Savant, no idiot she, though many smug "experts" in probability reckoned she was wrong on Monty Hall.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,572
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    I’m old enough to remember when people thought we wouldn’t have had Delta if Boris Johnson hadn’t wanted to do a trade mission to India.

    Keep calm Leon. This is no longer a novel virus.
    I feel too ill to panic, so that's an unexpected upside

    I am just staring listlessly at the gin bottle, working up the energy to uncork it
    Ooh a corked bottle? Very posh gin then. Williams Chase GB from your Hereford trip?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,205
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

    “In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”
    "In pictura" I think... It would take the ablative.
    I seem to remember Marcus and Sextus featuring prominently too (maybe this is where Jacob Rees Mogg went for inspiration when he was naming his children).
    Lucky sods. The first thing I had to learn was the table table. The declensions of mensa, which corresponded rouighly

    A/the table [as subject]
    O table (as in asking it out for the evening)
    table [as object]
    of a/the table
    to the table (as in give a Christmas present to)
    by the table

    This really blew my 10 year old mind ...
    Churchill's too, at the same age.

  • Sadly I have come down ill but keeping my spirits high :(
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,370
    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
    And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.
    Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.
    But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

    They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

    What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

    "This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

    https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
    Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

    The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.
    Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

    Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu
    As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.
    What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.
    Worth noting how fast this happens, now

    This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa
    The good doctor Pagel has noted how this particular bastard variant can be quite easily tracked on PCR tests in near real time.
    Feels mad to say it, but I think Leon is right that we need to act fast. Get S. Africa and nearby low sequencing onto the red list. Buys time for therapeutics & better understanding of whether vaccines are as effective against this one.
    If we do put South Africa on the red list, and I’m not sure we need to, given our high vaccination rates, then it should be done immediately, instead of the nonsense of telling people “We’re going to shut the border in a weeks time. If you’re going to bring Nu to the UK, you have a week to do so.” If it does get in, and puts more pressure on the NHS, the vaccinated should take priority over the unvaccinated.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    Evening all :)

    I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:

    1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.

    2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.

    The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.

    It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.
  • Off topic, but this only comes once a year: Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! (And if you were here, as some of you are, you would probably be joining in our holiday.) Feel free to borrow this holiday, by the way. It is a piece of our culture I am glad to share.

    Here's a cartoon that will surprise some of you, and delight others, from America's greatest political cartoonist, Thomas Nast: https://thereconstructionera.com/a-close-look-at-thomas-nasts-cartoon-uncle-sams-thanksgiving-dinner-1869-immigrants-welcome-here/

    (Some other commentaries I have seen said that the woman on the far left is intended to be "Columbia", who often the represented the United States, at that time.)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,417
    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
  • ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.
    I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.

    The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲

    And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.
    Sounds like the Cambridge Latin Course.

    https://www.clc.cambridgescp.com/home-clc
    LOL funny that you'd know it and I'm glad I'm not misremembering it, it has been quite a few years now since I did it. This was downunder but it wouldn't surprise me if the school was using a Cambridge course, it'd make sense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,263

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
    Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.
    English Nats are a passionate, idealistic people driven by justified outrage at the tyranny of vacuum cleaner rules and suchlike, Scotch Nats are cunning, calculating folk caring only about how much they can screw out of the generous English and unconcerned by issues such as basic democracy.

    As we all know.
    That is the impression, I'm afraid. Exactly that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    edited November 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

    China might have killed the world

    *eyes gin*

    Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

    Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

    There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

    One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

    (*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
    Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
    One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

    As for the 'favour', no.
    I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
    Doubt it.
    Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
    Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
    Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.

    And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,382
    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    I'm fairly shore that the UK 'sequences' a huge proportion of its PCR tests to determine the variant/strain/sub-strain.

    so if it was here already we should know.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:

    1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.

    2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.

    The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.

    It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.

    I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • GPs in England have voted to take industrial action over the Government's scheme to boost face-to-face appointments.

    Mail
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120


    I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    If I were Scholz, I would give the other party leaders some sage advice via the old political maxim:

    If we don't hang together, we'll all hang separately.

    If they can get this right, they can shut out the CDU/CSU for a generation.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,382

    Sadly I have come down ill but keeping my spirits high :(

    Hope you get better/fell better soon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331

    Sadly I have come down ill but keeping my spirits high :(

    Good luck, stay strong, watch Masterchef
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:

    1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.

    2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.

    The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.

    It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.

    I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    Rishi vs Boris but with extra spice?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
    I don't think you can do that exercise on such a small sample size.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,573
    Off topic, over on the Rail Forums site there is a debate going on as to whether Middlesbrough is in Yorkshire or not.

    Has the site been hacked by PBers?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,417
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
    I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).

    24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
    I don't think you can do that exercise on such a small sample size.
    He admits that in his tweet. We are all just fumbling in the dark. Not enough data
  • eekeek Posts: 18,807

    Off topic, over on the Rail Forums site there is a debate going on as to whether Middlesbrough is in Yorkshire or not.

    Has the site been hacked by PBers?

    That's a really simple question - is it North or South of the Tees.

    North and you are in County Durham, South and you are in Yorkshire.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,631
    eek said:

    Off topic, over on the Rail Forums site there is a debate going on as to whether Middlesbrough is in Yorkshire or not.

    Has the site been hacked by PBers?

    That's a really simple question - is it North or South of the Tees.

    North and you are in County Durham, South and you are in Yorkshire.
    I must live in Yorkshire. Can I vote for David Herdson Now?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,417
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
    I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).

    24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
    Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,798
    stodge said:


    I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    If I were Scholz, I would give the other party leaders some sage advice via the old political maxim:

    If we don't hang together, we'll all hang separately.

    If they can get this right, they can shut out the CDU/CSU for a generation.
    With the Union now having opposition all to themselves apart from the extremes of Linke and the AfD they should be back in front clearly by midterm
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    stodge said:


    That’s quite rude.

    I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

    Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

    As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

    Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

    You're very kind but after this afternoon at Lingfield the only thing for which I can now claim any expertise is handing my cash to the bookies.
    I’ve had much better runs of form than this too! If the weather starts getting bad it can make it even more tricky.

    Maybe before Saturdays flags ourselves and others can kick ideas around on here like PBs version of the Morning Line?

    I am out shopping tomorrow, but I can post a couple of suggestions for Saturday tomorrow evening.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
    I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).

    24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
    Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.
    Nu is doubling roughly every day in SA, but we only have tiny amounts of data, as yet

    That does suggest terrific infectivity
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,161
    BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163

    Wow. That WAS quick. For once

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,151
    Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

    These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

    The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    pigeon said:

    Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

    These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

    The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.

    it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,543
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

    China might have killed the world

    *eyes gin*

    Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

    Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

    There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

    One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

    (*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
    Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
    One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

    As for the 'favour', no.
    I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
    Doubt it.
    Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
    Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
    Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.

    And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
    Pfizer has made more money in a year than anyone ever on one treatment.
    They could probably buy AZN on the proceeds of the vaccine.
  • Off topic, over on the Rail Forums site there is a debate going on as to whether Middlesbrough is in Yorkshire or not.

    Has the site been hacked by PBers?

    Historic Yorkshire, yes!

    image
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,382
    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?
  • Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163

    Wow. That WAS quick. For once

    Yes good news we need to react to this.

    Let's stay safe. No need for tourism. Time to take a prudent approach.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Sadly I have come down ill but keeping my spirits high :(

    Get well soon happy horse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

    China might have killed the world

    *eyes gin*

    Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

    Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

    There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

    One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

    (*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
    Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
    One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

    As for the 'favour', no.
    I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
    Doubt it.
    Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
    Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
    Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.

    And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
    Pfizer has made more money in a year than anyone ever on one treatment.
    They could probably buy AZN on the proceeds of the vaccine.
    One imagines GSK will pick a better partner next time. They really chose very poorly this time around.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,205
    BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    new

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,543
    Thread here on the mutations - trifecta of spike, cleavage site and nucleocapsid…
    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463846528578109444

    Of course way too early to assume it’s going to be as worrying as the worriers worry, but we will see.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

    Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

    A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

    Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
    I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).

    24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
    Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.
    Nu is doubling roughly every day in SA, but we only have tiny amounts of data, as yet

    That does suggest terrific infectivity
    We'd need to know the local conditions, doubling every day in a highly vaccinated area would indicate an R of over 20, in a place with middling vaccinations it would be somewhere just over 10 and in places with low vaccination somewhere below 10 but above 6 (delta).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,417
    "Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, refers to these strains as “super variants” and says he is 80% sure that another one will emerge. The question is when."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant

    Delta turned up this time last year.

    Full disclosure: I'm twenty-something and absolutely desperate to avoid having to WFH again. I've got good plans for Hogmanay/Burns, and Christmas was rubbish last year. Boris made the right call in July and unless this new variant translates into increased admissions, I'll be furious if we go into another lockdown.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163

    Wow. That WAS quick. For once

    This feels like panicking, but I guess the government has to play it safe, as you said earlier. Better to be overcautious and not risk a Christmas lockdown in the end and reverse this if it turns out to not evade vaccines or have R value over 20 etc...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,166
    BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    I was always taught to pronounce it as in 'new', in the English not USA pronunciation - nyoo not noo.

    As to actual ancient Greek pronunciation - like ancient Greek music a fascinating subject with an immense literature and bibliography but about which nothing at all is actually known, SFAICS.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120

    stodge said:


    You're very kind but after this afternoon at Lingfield the only thing for which I can now claim any expertise is handing my cash to the bookies.

    I’ve had much better runs of form than this too! If the weather starts getting bad it can make it even more tricky.

    Maybe before Saturdays flags ourselves and others can kick ideas around on here like PBs version of the Morning Line?

    I am out shopping tomorrow, but I can post a couple of suggestions for Saturday tomorrow evening.
    For tomorrow, the two that interest me overnight are PHOENIX WAY on the 2.25 and INDEFATIGABLE in the 3.00 at Newbury.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 966
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

    With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.
    I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.

    The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲

    And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.
    Sounds like the Cambridge Latin Course.

    https://www.clc.cambridgescp.com/home-clc
    Something that still makes me chuckle 30 years on was a row of leather bound text books in one of our classics rooms which had written in gold leaf “THE COMPLETE WORKS OF MARTIAL AND LIVY” (yes I know they wouldn’t have been the complete works as many if not most lost…) and some wag had got some fine gold pen and adjusted every one to “MARTIAN AND SLIMY”. Super juvenile (maybe even Juvenal) but still makes me laugh now…..
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,387
    Has the UK govt just made a timely covid decision? Genuinely impressive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,445
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    Well I doubt there are that many triple jabbed in SA right now. I think it’s right to be cautious but let’s see where we are in a week.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,151
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

    These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

    The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.

    it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
    According to you, because you are panicking.

    If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.

    All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.

    The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.

    Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
  • BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    Noo.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Ok, so this is from the Beta lineage, if it has the same vaccine efficacy dilution as beta then I think we're fine, but people with AZ will absolutely need to get a booster shot (so well done @Leon).

    What's good is that if it is from a beta lineage - Moderna, Pfizer and AZ all have vaccines ready for this. AZ will be the quickest to switch over and aiui all three could get an EUA pretty quickly. We're also starting from a higher base, two doses of Moderna give VE of ~60% against any infection of beta, three doses is modelled to be around 90%. The specific beta vaccine will be even better.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

    These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

    The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.

    it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
    According to you, because you are panicking.

    If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.

    All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.

    The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.

    Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
    Who's panicking? I'm just making a cautious, measured appraisal of the data - which is scant - and surmising that this is the end of human civilisation as we have come to know it, and that much of the world will be a howling, desolate nullity in about four months

    That's not panic, that's weighing the evidence carefully
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,205
    rkrkrk said:

    Has the UK govt just made a timely covid decision? Genuinely impressive.

    It is both timeous and timorous.


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    Nah, it's not as bad as that. Human ingenuity will always win out. We may even have vaccines ready for this.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,417
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    What we discovered over the last couple of years is that people are more than happy to be told what to do. Actively yearn for young people to be locked up.

    The zero-covid lot will have an field day with it "no Covid = no variants"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,445
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    Seems unlikely. The U.K. population is not Covid naive. Even if it’s even more transmissible than delta, the chances are that vaccination or prior infection will dramatically reduce the chances of serious disease and death.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,942
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    Seems unlikely. The U.K. population is not Covid naive. Even if it’s even more transmissible than delta, the chances are that vaccination or prior infection will dramatically reduce the chances of serious disease and death.
    Yes and an order for 120m Gen 2 beta specific vaccine doses from Moderna and Pfizer may be a pretty good idea. Enough for two doses each.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939

    GPs in England have voted to take industrial action over the Government's scheme to boost face-to-face appointments.

    Mail

    Let's hope it's a work to rule. That would make far more appointments available.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    You're very kind but after this afternoon at Lingfield the only thing for which I can now claim any expertise is handing my cash to the bookies.

    I’ve had much better runs of form than this too! If the weather starts getting bad it can make it even more tricky.

    Maybe before Saturdays flags ourselves and others can kick ideas around on here like PBs version of the Morning Line?

    I am out shopping tomorrow, but I can post a couple of suggestions for Saturday tomorrow evening.
    For tomorrow, the two that interest me overnight are PHOENIX WAY on the 2.25 and INDEFATIGABLE in the 3.00 at Newbury.

    👍🏻

    We can call this chatter from the Going Stick Suite, before Eagles gets in first and calls it Studs Club 😆

    This site doesn’t need any more innuendo 🙂
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,942
    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Not much point unless you stop travel from every country that hasn’t done the same. Good politics I suppose.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 966
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    I do hope you are wrong otherwise my journey to the PB meet in Feb is going to be like an immersive live action “28 days later”…….
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Any country that is in lockdown a year after vaccines became available has well and truly failed dismally.

    Life is too important to be locked down forever. Locking down is for prisoners not normal people.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,151
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
    Its 30 sleeps until Christmas so not much of the year left.

    At least the Cricketers are already in Australia for the Ashes so that won't be cancelled now.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,942
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
    On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!
  • glwglw Posts: 8,268
    MaxPB said:

    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

    I will never under any circumstances vote Conservative again if we have another lockdown due to a government cock-up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    edited November 2021
    Here's the vaccine efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,296
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Not much point unless you stop travel from every country that hasn’t done the same. Good politics I suppose.
    It's like taking an umbrella into the pool and expecting to stay dry
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331
    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,387
    Let's take a minute to recognise some great science from S. Africa in raising the alarm quickly.
    Building up that sequencing capacity just has to be a massive priority for aid budgets.
  • BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    Noo.
    Ni in modern Greek. Like the Knights who say Ni.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,134
    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    So that's only double jabbed, on short cycle, and against infection of any kind. Put that like it doesn't look so bad.

    If pre-infection by delta works well then at least nu won't be going round schools...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,445

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
    Its 30 sleeps until Christmas so not much of the year left.

    At least the Cricketers are already in Australia for the Ashes so that won't be cancelled now.
    Pity. Doubt we’ll even get as much as a draw in a test.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,296
    BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crX4E-dul4Y&t=170s
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,621
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
    On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!
    Hmmmmm
    #Leon point of geographic order
    If it is a South African variant it has evolved in Summer not Winter
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,353
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,989
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If you read the article, it seems clear that 30% is based on the estimated efficacy of AstraZeneca against beta (for all infections including asymptomatic).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,445
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Previous beta outbreaks in the U.K. failed to take off. Remember all the surge testing etc? I’m nowhere near even a flicker of concern about this.
  • FossFoss Posts: 507
    edited November 2021
    As long as Nu gets heavily into Europe first then Johnson can probably shrug off another lockdown.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,151
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    That's complicated. The more frightened elements of the population are either still living as if we were in a lockdown or being very selective about when and where they choose to socialise, e.g. continuing to avail themselves of outdoor seating at pubs and restaurants, or only visiting them when they're reasonably sure they'll be very quiet.

    Many people, on the other hand, are absolutely fed up to the back teeth with viral panic and will only revert to socialising through screens if the variant is clinically proven to cause your head to explode.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,331

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Previous beta outbreaks in the U.K. failed to take off. Remember all the surge testing etc? I’m nowhere near even a flicker of concern about this.
    If the R is above 8 then it has got significant potential to replace Delta as the dominant viral lineage in the UK, especially given that it looks like a beta lineage which is has some amount of vaccine dilution (though nowhere near as much as people think).

    We have to actually wait and see though, it may be better or worse as it seems to have a significant number of mutations to the spike protein, if it's got a really high R value it may actually have really good binding efficiency to the ACE-2 site which would make vaccine dilution a non-issue.
  • Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,353

    BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    Noo.
    Ni in modern Greek. Like the Knights who say Ni.
    Great, so we have had 'new', 'noo', and 'ni' suggested already. So much for experts!

    I suspect it will be 'noo' on the air as 'new' would be too confusing, especially when we get another 'new' variant, and 'ni' is just plain silly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,161
    Begging the French...

    The PM has written to Macron formally requesting:
    - UK Border Force to be allowed to patrol French waters
    - Joint patrols of French beaches that could involve UK private security guards rather than Border Force to overcome Macron's concerns on sovereignty
    - Use of ground sensors
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1463973204456878080
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,161

    Great, so we have had 'new', 'noo', and 'ni' suggested already. So much for experts!

    I suspect it will be 'noo' on the air as 'new' would be too confusing, especially when we get another 'new' variant, and 'ni' is just plain silly.

    What about enn-yoo, or ennui..?
This discussion has been closed.