That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
Thoughts:
1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that 2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?
What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES
That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens
This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.
'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.
English Nats are a passionate, idealistic people driven by justified outrage at the tyranny of vacuum cleaner rules and suchlike, Scotch Nats are cunning, calculating folk caring only about how much they can screw out of the generous English and unconcerned by issues such as basic democracy.
Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void
China might have killed the world
*eyes gin*
Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...
Maybe they have done us all a big favour?
There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.
One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.
(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty. One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.
As for the 'favour', no.
I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
Doubt it. Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses. Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.
And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
I'm fairly shore that the UK 'sequences' a huge proportion of its PCR tests to determine the variant/strain/sub-strain.
I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:
1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.
2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.
The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.
It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.
I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:
1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.
2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.
The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.
It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.
I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I don't think you can do that exercise on such a small sample size.
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).
24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I don't think you can do that exercise on such a small sample size.
He admits that in his tweet. We are all just fumbling in the dark. Not enough data
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).
24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.
Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.
As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.
Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂
You're very kind but after this afternoon at Lingfield the only thing for which I can now claim any expertise is handing my cash to the bookies.
I’ve had much better runs of form than this too! If the weather starts getting bad it can make it even more tricky.
Maybe before Saturdays flags ourselves and others can kick ideas around on here like PBs version of the Morning Line?
I am out shopping tomorrow, but I can post a couple of suggestions for Saturday tomorrow evening.
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).
24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.
Nu is doubling roughly every day in SA, but we only have tiny amounts of data, as yet
Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.
These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.
The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.
These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.
The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void
China might have killed the world
*eyes gin*
Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...
Maybe they have done us all a big favour?
There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.
One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.
(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty. One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.
As for the 'favour', no.
I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
Doubt it. Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses. Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.
And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
Pfizer has made more money in a year than anyone ever on one treatment. They could probably buy AZN on the proceeds of the vaccine.
Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void
China might have killed the world
*eyes gin*
Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...
Maybe they have done us all a big favour?
There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.
One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.
(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty. One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.
As for the 'favour', no.
I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.
Doubt it. Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses. Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.
Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.
And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
Pfizer has made more money in a year than anyone ever on one treatment. They could probably buy AZN on the proceeds of the vaccine.
One imagines GSK will pick a better partner next time. They really chose very poorly this time around.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?
Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).
24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.
Nu is doubling roughly every day in SA, but we only have tiny amounts of data, as yet
That does suggest terrific infectivity
We'd need to know the local conditions, doubling every day in a highly vaccinated area would indicate an R of over 20, in a place with middling vaccinations it would be somewhere just over 10 and in places with low vaccination somewhere below 10 but above 6 (delta).
"Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, refers to these strains as “super variants” and says he is 80% sure that another one will emerge. The question is when."
Full disclosure: I'm twenty-something and absolutely desperate to avoid having to WFH again. I've got good plans for Hogmanay/Burns, and Christmas was rubbish last year. Boris made the right call in July and unless this new variant translates into increased admissions, I'll be furious if we go into another lockdown.
This feels like panicking, but I guess the government has to play it safe, as you said earlier. Better to be overcautious and not risk a Christmas lockdown in the end and reverse this if it turns out to not evade vaccines or have R value over 20 etc...
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,
How does one pronounce Nu?
I was always taught to pronounce it as in 'new', in the English not USA pronunciation - nyoo not noo.
As to actual ancient Greek pronunciation - like ancient Greek music a fascinating subject with an immense literature and bibliography but about which nothing at all is actually known, SFAICS.
Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
Donnent-ils, non?
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.
EDIT: seen your edit now
I'd go with leur, not ils.
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!
Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.
With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.
I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.
The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲
And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.
Something that still makes me chuckle 30 years on was a row of leather bound text books in one of our classics rooms which had written in gold leaf “THE COMPLETE WORKS OF MARTIAL AND LIVY” (yes I know they wouldn’t have been the complete works as many if not most lost…) and some wag had got some fine gold pen and adjusted every one to “MARTIAN AND SLIMY”. Super juvenile (maybe even Juvenal) but still makes me laugh now…..
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.
These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.
The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
According to you, because you are panicking.
If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.
All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.
The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.
Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
Ok, so this is from the Beta lineage, if it has the same vaccine efficacy dilution as beta then I think we're fine, but people with AZ will absolutely need to get a booster shot (so well done @Leon).
What's good is that if it is from a beta lineage - Moderna, Pfizer and AZ all have vaccines ready for this. AZ will be the quickest to switch over and aiui all three could get an EUA pretty quickly. We're also starting from a higher base, two doses of Moderna give VE of ~60% against any infection of beta, three doses is modelled to be around 90%. The specific beta vaccine will be even better.
Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.
These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.
The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
According to you, because you are panicking.
If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.
All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.
The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.
Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
Who's panicking? I'm just making a cautious, measured appraisal of the data - which is scant - and surmising that this is the end of human civilisation as we have come to know it, and that much of the world will be a howling, desolate nullity in about four months
That's not panic, that's weighing the evidence carefully
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
Nah, it's not as bad as that. Human ingenuity will always win out. We may even have vaccines ready for this.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
What we discovered over the last couple of years is that people are more than happy to be told what to do. Actively yearn for young people to be locked up.
The zero-covid lot will have an field day with it "no Covid = no variants"
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
Seems unlikely. The U.K. population is not Covid naive. Even if it’s even more transmissible than delta, the chances are that vaccination or prior infection will dramatically reduce the chances of serious disease and death.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
Seems unlikely. The U.K. population is not Covid naive. Even if it’s even more transmissible than delta, the chances are that vaccination or prior infection will dramatically reduce the chances of serious disease and death.
Yes and an order for 120m Gen 2 beta specific vaccine doses from Moderna and Pfizer may be a pretty good idea. Enough for two doses each.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
I do hope you are wrong otherwise my journey to the PB meet in Feb is going to be like an immersive live action “28 days later”…….
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Any country that is in lockdown a year after vaccines became available has well and truly failed dismally.
Life is too important to be locked down forever. Locking down is for prisoners not normal people.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
Its 30 sleeps until Christmas so not much of the year left.
At least the Cricketers are already in Australia for the Ashes so that won't be cancelled now.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I will never under any circumstances vote Conservative again if we have another lockdown due to a government cock-up.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Let's take a minute to recognise some great science from S. Africa in raising the alarm quickly. Building up that sequencing capacity just has to be a massive priority for aid budgets.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
So that's only double jabbed, on short cycle, and against infection of any kind. Put that like it doesn't look so bad.
If pre-infection by delta works well then at least nu won't be going round schools...
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
Its 30 sleeps until Christmas so not much of the year left.
At least the Cricketers are already in Australia for the Ashes so that won't be cancelled now.
Pity. Doubt we’ll even get as much as a draw in a test.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!
Hmmmmm #Leon point of geographic order If it is a South African variant it has evolved in Summer not Winter
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.
Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If you read the article, it seems clear that 30% is based on the estimated efficacy of AstraZeneca against beta (for all infections including asymptomatic).
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Previous beta outbreaks in the U.K. failed to take off. Remember all the surge testing etc? I’m nowhere near even a flicker of concern about this.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
That's complicated. The more frightened elements of the population are either still living as if we were in a lockdown or being very selective about when and where they choose to socialise, e.g. continuing to avail themselves of outdoor seating at pubs and restaurants, or only visiting them when they're reasonably sure they'll be very quiet.
Many people, on the other hand, are absolutely fed up to the back teeth with viral panic and will only revert to socialising through screens if the variant is clinically proven to cause your head to explode.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Previous beta outbreaks in the U.K. failed to take off. Remember all the surge testing etc? I’m nowhere near even a flicker of concern about this.
If the R is above 8 then it has got significant potential to replace Delta as the dominant viral lineage in the UK, especially given that it looks like a beta lineage which is has some amount of vaccine dilution (though nowhere near as much as people think).
We have to actually wait and see though, it may be better or worse as it seems to have a significant number of mutations to the spike protein, if it's got a really high R value it may actually have really good binding efficiency to the ACE-2 site which would make vaccine dilution a non-issue.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
The PM has written to Macron formally requesting: - UK Border Force to be allowed to patrol French waters - Joint patrols of French beaches that could involve UK private security guards rather than Border Force to overcome Macron's concerns on sovereignty - Use of ground sensors https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1463973204456878080
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences
This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck
I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.
Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
The only downside to note is if this is significant enough a change to be considered a new variant (what's next? Epsilon?) such that the previous research is no longer applicable.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.
We shall see.
As the Bible says. The meek will inherit the earth.
Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.
These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.
The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
According to you, because you are panicking.
If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.
All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.
The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.
Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
Who's panicking? I'm just making a cautious, measured appraisal of the data - which is scant - and surmising that this is the end of human civilisation as we have come to know it, and that much of the world will be a howling, desolate nullity in about four months
That's not panic, that's weighing the evidence carefully
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!
Hmmmmm #Leon point of geographic order If it is a South African variant it has evolved in Summer not Winter
Unless it evolved about ten months ago, no it hasn't.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.
We shall see.
I think my retired friends will do anything but lock themselves down again. And having had two jabs, Delta, and with a booster due in two weeks, I might just risk a bit of vaccine dilution
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences
This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck
I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu
No, this isn't the nightmare scenario. The nightmare is that a new completely vaccine evading variant that can still infect people is found first in the UK and suddenly everyone closes their borders to us. We almost had that with Alpha and Delta but ultimately both of those had little to no efficacy dilution.
That's my personal nightmare, I think I'd feel trapped.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
Comments
And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.
so if it was here already we should know.
What could possibly go wrong?
Mail
A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious
Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently
If we don't hang together, we'll all hang separately.
If they can get this right, they can shut out the CDU/CSU for a generation.
Has the site been hacked by PBers?
24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).
North and you are in County Durham, South and you are in Yorkshire.
Maybe before Saturdays flags ourselves and others can kick ideas around on here like PBs version of the Morning Line?
I am out shopping tomorrow, but I can post a couple of suggestions for Saturday tomorrow evening.
That does suggest terrific infectivity
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163
These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.
The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.
They could probably buy AZN on the proceeds of the vaccine.
How does one pronounce Nu?
Let's stay safe. No need for tourism. Time to take a prudent approach.
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463846528578109444
Of course way too early to assume it’s going to be as worrying as the worriers worry, but we will see.
"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.
"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant
Delta turned up this time last year.
Full disclosure: I'm twenty-something and absolutely desperate to avoid having to WFH again. I've got good plans for Hogmanay/Burns, and Christmas was rubbish last year. Boris made the right call in July and unless this new variant translates into increased admissions, I'll be furious if we go into another lockdown.
As to actual ancient Greek pronunciation - like ancient Greek music a fascinating subject with an immense literature and bibliography but about which nothing at all is actually known, SFAICS.
And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?
I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.
All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.
The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.
Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
What's good is that if it is from a beta lineage - Moderna, Pfizer and AZ all have vaccines ready for this. AZ will be the quickest to switch over and aiui all three could get an EUA pretty quickly. We're also starting from a higher base, two doses of Moderna give VE of ~60% against any infection of beta, three doses is modelled to be around 90%. The specific beta vaccine will be even better.
That's not panic, that's weighing the evidence carefully
The zero-covid lot will have an field day with it "no Covid = no variants"
However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!
It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
- UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa
We can call this chatter from the Going Stick Suite, before Eagles gets in first and calls it Studs Club 😆
This site doesn’t need any more innuendo 🙂
Life is too important to be locked down forever. Locking down is for prisoners not normal people.
At least the Cricketers are already in Australia for the Ashes so that won't be cancelled now.
Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
AZ 40% delta, 30% beta
These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.
If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
Building up that sequencing capacity just has to be a massive priority for aid budgets.
If pre-infection by delta works well then at least nu won't be going round schools...
#Leon point of geographic order
If it is a South African variant it has evolved in Summer not Winter
Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
Many people, on the other hand, are absolutely fed up to the back teeth with viral panic and will only revert to socialising through screens if the variant is clinically proven to cause your head to explode.
Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.
will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
We have to actually wait and see though, it may be better or worse as it seems to have a significant number of mutations to the spike protein, if it's got a really high R value it may actually have really good binding efficiency to the ACE-2 site which would make vaccine dilution a non-issue.
I suspect it will be 'noo' on the air as 'new' would be too confusing, especially when we get another 'new' variant, and 'ni' is just plain silly.
The PM has written to Macron formally requesting:
- UK Border Force to be allowed to patrol French waters
- Joint patrols of French beaches that could involve UK private security guards rather than Border Force to overcome Macron's concerns on sovereignty
- Use of ground sensors https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1463973204456878080
We shall see.
This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck
I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu
All feels a bit early to draw conclusions.
The meek will inherit the earth.
That's my personal nightmare, I think I'd feel trapped.