Given what has happened in British politics over the last few weeks I find it remarkable that back in August one of the best bets that I was recommending was that LAB would get a polling lead of some sort by the end of the year. Then such a possibility seemed so remote but how things have changed. When I made that bet with Smarkets I was talking about the possibility of an outlier.
One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.
As for the 'favour', no.
I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
"What is the potential impact of the new B.1.1.529 #COVID19 variant?
1. It's relatively simple to detect some B.1.1.529 cases, as it's possible to use PCR tests to do this in some cases
2. B.1.1.529 = has many mutations across different parts of the virus"
14 to 19 Oct Kantar had it
39% 34% 8
43% 30% 11
So the take out from sequence really is Labour eating into lead, Kantar finding more Labour voters each time they poll? So not really an outlier from other pollsters who start from different places.
Or maybe I am a newbie and haven’t a clue 🤷♀️
Battersea Riverside now has its own Underground line, very little social housing, and has been placed squarely within Zone 1 by Transport for London (TFL). What more could the developers have asked for? Through their elegant solution to zoning, the Tube map’s cartographers have managed to conceal the politics behind these decisions, making this new area appear as if it has always belonged in Zone 1. In doing so, they have pushed up the profits of the developers who managed to avoid having to build more affordable housing.
Although not responsible for generating the circumstances that allowed the developers to lobby the Council, the Tube map has still managed to legitimise the outcomes. Like any map, its aesthetics conceals its politics.
I studied some cartography at university and find it quite good fun. Maps are inherently political and can be very powerful.
But the lastest poll or Labour's brief spell in ascendency? Hard to tell.
I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.
I've had experience of many of these people in steering committees, advisory boards etc and they're great. Often, to be fair, it's a clinician or a retired scientist, or both.
This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers
Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
From actually looking for something for bad chests?
It was always a worry when I did my own PhD whether the data I could get on the topic I had selected was going to last me 3-4 years. Not that I need have worried, but I can sympathise with people whose topics just went to mush (metaphorically, but it did happen).
Unless I can’t interpret polls as well as all experts on here?
Often the same people
As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.
I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.
This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
There's always a good reason to panic.
It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case
If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done
Boris is having a nightmare but Starmer is not impressing
Indeed his comment today that as a prosecutor he would have had the smugglers arrested last week is astonishing considering they came into France from Germany and we therefore have no jurisdiction and France was aware of the plot
1) What kind of biscuits are we serving?
2) Who will stay behind to fold the tables and chairs, afterwards?
A lot of this is based on random luck, in some sense we were pretty lucky to get delta early in the spring and summer rather than late summer and autumn, in another we were also sensible to reopen and be damned.
Anyway, I'm still not convinced that there is any reason to panic, variants will come and go, I just can't bring myself to get worked up about them, mainly because it will take a quite some doing to outcompete the new delta subvariant that is slowly making its way through the country. Delta was our nightmare, now it might turn our to be our way out of this.
Down - Cases in the older groups, hospitalisations, deaths
Up - cases in the younger groups. Especially in the unvaccinated children
Shut the border to SA now.
There's no horrible hotspots and no areas with nothing.
Another piece of evidence that where we are in this has moved on.
Hopefully good news
If I am right about analysing sequence from same poster, how is the header finding movement from Tory to libdem?
Lucy in the sky, with diamonds is apparently a painting by a primary school child!
Yes. And Ebenezer Goode was a Methodist too
Why not buy us a fortnight or a month with one simple measure? Close the border. Redlist southern Africa
I would add I do not bet, so polls while interesting are not really relevant to the next GE in 23/24
If I am right this swing isn’t obvious to me, surely the psephologically pebble counting narrative in the header is a bit sloppy, and we should expect better from this site?
No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch
It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
Much better than the fighty stuff we get in the late evening.
Can't see with Delta where else a serious new upward trend might come from and think hospitals and deaths are firmly set downwards until New Year.
Agree with Max that an evolution on Beta does not necessarily displace Delta, I think the hints of a milder sub-variant could end up more credible for the UKs immunity position: from a covid evolution pov, to spread well from a smaller host like a young child you simply have be able to operate your lifecycle well with fewer virus particles to spread.
I'd still have the low cost bits of plan B on reserve in case a few cycles of R 1.2 kick in or in case deaths trend up, but having been in favour of a dab on the brakes last month, I'm more comfortable with waiting and seeing now and expect the important stats to improve.
Of course this is all speculation, at the mo
I honestly think a fully vaccine evading variant would be a massive disaster but we would also know very quickly because countries would record lots of breakthrough cases, there's little to no evidence of this so far for this variant.
I still think this is a good enough reason to close the border. We will know very soon
Overall from all posters it’s a basically horizontal line for Libdems right through the eh in ten, would you agree? Which you then calculate as swing from Tory to libdem from GE?
It’s been stuck like that quite a while though is my point? Would it help libdems move up if voters could name the leader and a libdem policy?
Would it help libdem poll ratings if Ed Davey had a celebrity affair, maybe with Gemma Collins? Or a three in a bed with both Konnie Huq and Charlie Brooker?
Who do you think Ed Davey should have affair with that most helps the libdems?
SA are doing the right thing by being honest with what's happening and we need to weigh up whether stopping flights is necessary before pulling the trigger. If we have evidence that this is an evading variant then yes, maybe we can close the border, but probably to the whole world while we figure out just how bad it is and get AZ/Ox working on a new vaccine and give them all of the money to get it done ASAP. If there's no evidence of it imposing economic sanctions on honesty will just mean people stop being honest, just as China did at the beginning of all this.
This woman is usually level headed. That she is concerned, is concerning
"You’re hearing about the new variant? B.1.1.529, soon to be Nu? Yes, the early signals are genuinely worrying. (This isn’t true for many; it is for this one. Dismissing this one isn’t wise.) It’s now spreading in a poor and poorly-vaccinated area. The world needs to step up."
Full immunity evasion: Essentially a new, different pandemic. This is usually caused by a new zoonotic introduction, not simply the evolution of an existing strain in humans.
Partial immunity evasion: better at infecting immune people. Since they have some immunity, they get a cold. And next time a milder cold. A few more unvaccinated die each time. This will happen. It IS the endemic endgame, not a setback.
More transmissible variant: since R0 is already high and tricky to raise by much, moves the theoretical herd immunity level by only a couple of percent and then likely only causes a couple of week's damage before we end up as close to herd immunity as we were before and Rt bends back down. Very quickly gets outcompeted by the partial immune evasion variant. This is what SA variant would do if it outcompetes Delta.
More kid friendly variant: Rips through schools and gets us close to herd immunity. Ultimately replaced by the partial immune evasion variant.
And yet, saving British lives and the British economy has to be the primary concern of HMG. It's a pretty intense and tight judgement call
Surely we also need to know if prior infection with Delta (or Beta etc) gives some or total immunity to Nu?
If we can all get a nasty Covid all over again, then we are in a pickle. If not, probably not
The South Africans are certainly reacting like scalded cats, but they have been traumatised by Covid before...
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'