The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com
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Why ?MaxPB said:
Hmm, the mechanism of the anti-virals would probably make a vaccine evading variant also able to evade the three or four anti-viral candidates out there...Leon said:
But you forget the Pfizer anti-viral cavalry. They aim to start mass production at the end of the year. If this drug is as good as it seems (God willing) then there IS a reason to ward off Nu for a few weeks. That delay could save many livesMaxPB said:
The process is a minimum of 6 months to design, test, trial and ramp up manufacturing of a new variant buster vaccine, plus a minimum of 3 months to get 50m doses out there. Our best case scenario is 9 months from detecting a vaccine evading variant to getting everyone vaccinated. I don't see what two weeks buys us, we're going to be locked down for 6-8 months of it, that is simply unavoidable. The nation has decided that not letting old people die is more important than freedom when they die at a rate of more than 300-400 per day, less than that seems to be an acceptable loss of life for freedom.Leon said:
But that is why we should close the border. If the variant evades the vaccine we want to fend it off as long as possible, giving the boffins time to tweak the vax and/or develop antivirals (hurry up Pfizer!)MaxPB said:
Yes, that was the most idiotic decision this government came up with and that's a pretty long a storied list. We're now in a different phase of the pandemic and border closures should for variants seem unnecessary. If the variant completely evades the vaccine then we're all fucked for another 6 months anyway while we wait for Pfizer, Moderna and AZ to retool their existing vaccines.Andy_JS said:
No but we should have closed the borders immediately at the start of the pandemic. We locked down the domestic population but allowed flights to continue. I can't think of a logical reason for doing that.MaxPB said:
The thing is, we can't close the border every single time a new variant pops up. As for delta, in all honesty the way it's worked out is that the early seeding of delta in the UK has probably made our exit wave 3-4x the size it would otherwise have been. I'm yet to be convinced this wasn't a good thing for the UK. As you can see from the incoming data we're seeing nothing like the take off that the rest of Europe is seeing. That delta seeded exit wave has fortified our level population immunity.Leon said:
This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberallyMaxPB said:
Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.Leon said:
Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SAMaxPB said:In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.
I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.
This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers
Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.
I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.
This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case
If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done
A lot of this is based on random luck, in some sense we were pretty lucky to get delta early in the spring and summer rather than late summer and autumn, in another we were also sensible to reopen and be damned.
Anyway, I'm still not convinced that there is any reason to panic, variants will come and go, I just can't bring myself to get worked up about them, mainly because it will take a quite some doing to outcompete the new delta subvariant that is slowly making its way through the country. Delta was our nightmare, now it might turn our to be our way out of this.
Why not buy us a fortnight or a month with one simple measure? Close the border. Redlist southern Africa
Of course this is all speculation, at the mo
The Pfizer antiviral is a protease inhibitor* (as is the Merck pill), so a vaccine evading spike mutation would make no difference to it.
*Actually a cocktail of two.
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I think not letting Thomas the Tank Engine travel to the North East will have a more lasting political impact than Peppa Pig.GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
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This is not an outlier. It's what to expect when all recent polls have both parties in the range 34-40. It's reasonable to assume they are about 37 each, but with the recent trend favouring Labour.
As always we won't really know anything until the next poll, at which point our knowledge state will be that we don't really know anything until the next poll.
Polls are like a statement of a share price in shares that cannot be traded except once, on one day, every few years and are just as helpful.
Nothing has happened to change my view that Tory majority (326+) and NOM are about level in probability, with about a 5% chance of a Labour majority (326+).1 -
DiracJosiasJessop said:
James Clerk Maxwell deserves much wider recognition IMO. More of the modern world is built on his shoulders than Einstein's, IMO.Nigelb said:
He always was a clever bugger.IshmaelZ said:
Einstein claimed that he was unaware of Michelson–Morley when he wrote the Special Relativity paper, and worked it all out from Clerk Maxwell's equationsMalmesbury said:
Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.Carnyx said:
Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.Malmesbury said:
No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.Carnyx said:
I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?Malmesbury said:
I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.MaxPB said:
You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.turbotubbs said:
You never lose the scientific training.MaxPB said:
Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.Leon said:
Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofcrottenborough said:
"That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."Leon said:
I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual testMaxPB said:
That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.Leon said:Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...
It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)
And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
Which I thought was shit solution.
I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.1 -
Ah, another excuse to post a link to one of my top 5 songs of all time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBpq7MctZccMalmesbury said:
I like this StreamOfConciousnessDrunkPosting.MoonRabbit said:
I am having a drop of wine waiting for my other half to come home, but you should know what I mean, I am making Lucy’d (sic) sense.MoonRabbit said:
Bicycle day! 😵💫Malmesbury said:
Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.Carnyx said:
Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.Malmesbury said:
No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.Carnyx said:
I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?Malmesbury said:
I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.MaxPB said:
You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.turbotubbs said:
You never lose the scientific training.MaxPB said:
Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.Leon said:
Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofcrottenborough said:
"That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."Leon said:
I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual testMaxPB said:
That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.Leon said:Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...
It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)
And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
Which I thought was shit solution.
I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
From actually looking for something for bad chests?
Lucy in the sky, with diamonds is apparently a painting by a primary school child!
Yes. And Ebenezer Goode was a Methodist too
Much better than the fighty stuff we get in the late evening.0 -
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
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It's a mix of stuff - effectiveness of prior vaccination; combination of prior vaccination and breakthrough infection; unvaccinated prior infection; double boosted vaccine etc.Leon said:
InterestingPro_Rata said:Effect of variants at this stage:
Full immunity evasion: Essentially a new, different pandemic. This is usually caused by a new zoonotic introduction, not simply the evolution of an existing strain in humans.
Partial immunity evasion: better at infecting immune people. Since they have some immunity, they get a cold. And next time a milder cold. A few more unvaccinated die each time. This will happen. It IS the endemic endgame, not a setback.
More transmissible variant: since R0 is already high and tricky to raise by much, moves the theoretical herd immunity level by only a couple of percent and then likely only causes a couple of week's damage before we end up as close to herd immunity as we were before and Rt bends back down. Very quickly gets outcompeted by the partial immune evasion variant. This is what SA variant would do if it outcompetes Delta.
More kid friendly variant: Rips through schools and gets us close to herd immunity. Ultimately replaced by the partial immune evasion variant.
Surely we also need to know if prior infection with Delta (or Beta etc) gives some or total immunity to Nu?...
It seems fairly unlikely that an immune evading variant, which is also effective at reproducing itself is going to emerge. Possible, I guess, but I'm fairly sanguine.1 -
Nice analysis.Pro_Rata said:Effect of variants at this stage:
Full immunity evasion: Essentially a new, different pandemic. This is usually caused by a new zoonotic introduction, not simply the evolution of an existing strain in humans.
Partial immunity evasion: better at infecting immune people. Since they have some immunity, they get a cold. And next time a milder cold. A few more unvaccinated die each time. This will happen. It IS the endemic endgame, not a setback.
More transmissible variant: since R0 is already high and tricky to raise by much, moves the theoretical herd immunity level by only a couple of percent and then likely only causes a couple of week's damage before we end up as close to herd immunity as we were before and Rt bends back down. Very quickly gets outcompeted by the partial immune evasion variant. This is what SA variant would do if it outcompetes Delta.
More kid friendly variant: Rips through schools and gets us close to herd immunity. Ultimately replaced by the partial immune evasion variant.
(No idea whether it's sound or not though tbh!)0 -
I would agree, I would rather see us overeact initially to this new variant and be extremely cautious than become complacent with a strain we don't fully understand yet.rottenborough said:
Close the bloody border now!Leon said:
If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usualMaxPB said:
I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.rottenborough said:
Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.DavidL said:
The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.Leon said:
This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberallyMaxPB said:
Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.Leon said:
Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SAMaxPB said:In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.
I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.
This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers
Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.
I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.
This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case
If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done
Shut the border to SA now.
No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch
It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
We can easily roll back and remove restrictions in terms of travel if we got it wrong.
I am not super worried about this variant until we know more, but we need to be cautious and sensible.1 -
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=200 -
I felt a bit of an idiot queuing for 3.5 hours Sunday before last for a booster instead of waiting for a December 11 appointment. Feel a bit less silly now.0
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Got to hope for herd immunity from this gnu variant.3
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Could be an outlier. Peppa (get spelling right please!) Piggate (Lester's relative?) may take a while to get into the public consciousness. Even if it doesn't per se, it is just another piece of evidence that the idiot is not up to the job and needs replacing. fast.GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Either way, Bozo needs to understand the well known mantra of the 6 Ps. Perfect Preparation Prevents Peppa Pig Presentations.0 -
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
-1 -
Afternoon all
It's one poll and one or two on here are clearly over-excited (perhaps a side effect of the booster vaccination of which we have not been made aware).
Is it a trend setter? Perhaps or it might be an outlier - in truth, the two main parties are statistically tied at 36-38 each with the rest of the electorate fragmented between LDs, Greens, SNP, PC, Reform and others.
That represents a small but significant swing from Conservative to Labour of say 5.5% but the key is where is that swing in terms of seats and I suspect trying to glean that from sub samples isn't worth anyone's time or effort.
"What about local by elections?" I hear nobody ask. The "evidence" is there's still plenty able and willing to vote Conservative - the party is making gains albeit often aided and abetted by the inability of the opposition to think strategically or even tactically but that's democracy I suppose.
13 contests today for example - the one with the market up is in @HYUFD's old hunting ground of Tunbridge Wells -Speldhurst and Bidborough Ward where the daughter of the deceased Conservative councillor is standing for her father's seat but faces the invincible might (perhaps a slight exaggeration) of the Tunbridge Wells Alliance - a group presumably dedicated to restoring Tunbridge Wells to its rightful place as capital of the universe (another exaggeration I fear).
The TWA can be backed at 1.58, the Conservative at 2.46 and the Labour also ran (one might suppose) at 30.0 -
The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=201 -
The poll was pre-Piggate. I suspect the Tories will have dipped sharply on the 23rd/24th, but then the Channel tragedy has of course blanketed everything else. I suspect this will help the Conservative rating - though obviously not in a way they'd have wished - by turning attention to another problem which, like the pandemic, nearly everyone accepts is not entirely soluble by any single government.Benpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
0 -
Federico Faggin.Malmesbury said:
DiracJosiasJessop said:
James Clerk Maxwell deserves much wider recognition IMO. More of the modern world is built on his shoulders than Einstein's, IMO.Nigelb said:
He always was a clever bugger.IshmaelZ said:
Einstein claimed that he was unaware of Michelson–Morley when he wrote the Special Relativity paper, and worked it all out from Clerk Maxwell's equationsMalmesbury said:
Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.Carnyx said:
Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.Malmesbury said:
No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.Carnyx said:
I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?Malmesbury said:
I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.MaxPB said:
You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.turbotubbs said:
You never lose the scientific training.MaxPB said:
Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.Leon said:
Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofcrottenborough said:
"That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."Leon said:
I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual testMaxPB said:
That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.Leon said:Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...
It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)
And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
Which I thought was shit solution.
I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.0 -
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
2 -
The TWA won Speldhurst in 1999 (previously it had always been Tory). I know the village well as it is near my parents and they still regularly worship at the church there and indeed I started my education at Bidborough primary school.stodge said:Afternoon all
It's one poll and one or two on here are clearly over-excited (perhaps a side effect of the booster vaccination of which we have not been made aware).
Is it a trend setter? Perhaps or it might be an outlier - in truth, the two main parties are statistically tied at 36-38 each with the rest of the electorate fragmented between LDs, Greens, SNP, PC, Reform and others.
That represents a small but significant swing from Conservative to Labour of say 5.5% but the key is where is that swing in terms of seats and I suspect trying to glean that from sub samples isn't worth anyone's time or effort.
"What about local by elections?" I hear nobody ask. The "evidence" is there's still plenty able and willing to vote Conservative - the party is making gains albeit often aided and abetted by the inability of the opposition to think strategically or even tactically but that's democracy I suppose.
13 contests today for example - the one with the market up is in @HYUFD's old hunting ground of Tunbridge Wells -Speldhurst and Bidborough Ward where the daughter of the deceased Conservative councillor is standing for her father's seat but faces the invincible might (perhaps a slight exaggeration) of the Tunbridge Wells Alliance - a group presumably dedicated to restoring Tunbridge Wells to its rightful place as capital of the universe (another exaggeration I fear).
The TWA can be backed at 1.58, the Conservative at 2.46 and the Labour also ran (one might suppose) at 30.
There is still a lot of anger in Tunbridge Wells over development plans for the Town Centre (or lack of them now) and the TWA could win on a NIMBY ticket, especially as Labour or the LDs are not standing0 -
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
-1 -
Thoughts:Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20
1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?
What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES
That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens
This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats1 -
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
-1 -
I hope to god they don't word the next one remain/leave, distinguishing remainers/leavers in the EU and indyref senses will make political discourse impossible.TheScreamingEagles said:
The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=200 -
WRT the 'new covid variant'; it might turn out that the scientists suggesting vaccines should be shipped out to the the developing world were right. If the virus can just let rip in poor parts of the planet, then the risk of new variants emerging must be high.0
-
You seem to share his contempt for the electorate.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.2 -
I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-594212591 -
There have been stories that Boris Johnson and the Scotland Office want to reword any indyref2 question, so voting to stay in the Union is the positive answer.IshmaelZ said:
I hope to god they don't word the next one remain/leave, distinguishing remainers/leavers in the EU and indyref senses will make political discourse impossible.TheScreamingEagles said:
The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=200 -
I hate to shit on any narratives but the Kantar Poll took place (largely) before the Peppa Pig moment.
In fact based on past experience <10% of the fieldwork would have been on the day of the Peppa Pig moment, and given how long it takes for a story to feed through...2 -
An (incorrect) anecdote about Peppa Pig to hide the fact he's completely shafted the Red Wall.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
May work short term - it won't work once campaigning begins.1 -
His electorate is the RedWall.Nigelb said:
You seem to share his contempt for the electorate.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
CBI leaders almost always vote Tory, they are not huge Boris fans but will likely still vote Tory anyway on the whole.
Boris however won seats in the RedWall even Thatcher couldn't, he speaks to the white working class in a way few PMs have for decades. Indeed he is probably the most popular PM with the white working class since Harold Wilson. They are his voters and he knows what makes them tick-1 -
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)0 -
Far be it for me to correct you over such matters but there is a Labour candidate.HYUFD said:
The TWA won Speldhurst in 1999 (previously it had always been Tory). I know the village well as it is near my parents and they still regularly worship at the church there and indeed I started my education at Bidborough primary school.
There is still a lot of anger in Tunbridge Wells over development plans for the Town Centre (or lack of them now) and the TWA could win on a NIMBY ticket, especially as Labour or the LDs are not standing
https://www.timeslocalnews.co.uk/tunbridge-wells-news/daughter-fights-for-the-council-seat-left-vacant-by-death-of-her-father
This is the background to the contest.
0 -
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
0 -
It was apparently last Friday, can't say I noticed it.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
Tommy Shelby is a cracking role model.0 -
Putting South Africa/Botswana/neighbouring countries with low sequencing capacity back on the red list might be a reasonable interim step. As an non-expert, it does look like the people who would know are concerned.Leon said:
This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberallyMaxPB said:
Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.Leon said:
Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SAMaxPB said:In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.
I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.
This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers
Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.
I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.
This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case
If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done1 -
The strangest man whose own delta variant was on the heavy side.Malmesbury said:
DiracJosiasJessop said:
James Clerk Maxwell deserves much wider recognition IMO. More of the modern world is built on his shoulders than Einstein's, IMO.Nigelb said:
He always was a clever bugger.IshmaelZ said:
Einstein claimed that he was unaware of Michelson–Morley when he wrote the Special Relativity paper, and worked it all out from Clerk Maxwell's equationsMalmesbury said:
Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.Carnyx said:
Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.Malmesbury said:
No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.Carnyx said:
I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?Malmesbury said:
I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.MaxPB said:
You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.turbotubbs said:
You never lose the scientific training.MaxPB said:
Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.Leon said:
Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofcrottenborough said:
"That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."Leon said:
I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual testMaxPB said:
That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.Leon said:Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...
It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)
And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
Which I thought was shit solution.
I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
0 -
No, we need it to troll people who when it's International Womens Day say "But why isn't there one for Men?"Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
0 -
Should Scotland be an independent country? vs Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK?TheScreamingEagles said:
The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20
The second is the better worded question because Scotland, being part of the UK, is already an independent country.0 -
A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).JosiasJessop said:
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)0 -
Well that may help the Tories then, though there is no LD candidatestodge said:
Far be it for me to correct you over such matters but there is a Labour candidate.HYUFD said:
The TWA won Speldhurst in 2019 (previously it had always been Tory). I know the village well as it is near my parents and they still regularly worship at the church there and indeed I started my education at Bidborough primary school.
There is still a lot of anger in Tunbridge Wells over development plans for the Town Centre (or lack of them now) and the TWA could win on a NIMBY ticket, especially as Labour or the LDs are not standing
https://www.timeslocalnews.co.uk/tunbridge-wells-news/daughter-fights-for-the-council-seat-left-vacant-by-death-of-her-father
This is the background to the contest.0 -
So what makes them tick?HYUFD said:
His electorate is the RedWall.Nigelb said:
You seem to share his contempt for the electorate.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
CBI leaders almost always vote Tory, they are not huge Boris fans but will likely still vote Tory anyway on the whole.
Boris however won seats in the RedWall even Thatcher couldn't, he speaks to the white working class in a way few PMs have for decades. Indeed he is probably the most popular PM with the white working class since Harold Wilson. They are his voters and he knows what makes them tick0 -
He delivered Brexit for the RedWall as promised and the average RedWall homeowner will still keep more of their assets after the Boris social care reforms than they are allowed to keep now if they need residential careeek said:
An (incorrect) anecdote about Peppa Pig to hide the fact he's completely shafted the Red Wall.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
May work short term - it won't work once campaigning begins.-1 -
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
0 -
I've no idea, and I've not seen either. But is Bridgerton teenage boy material?Tres said:
A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).JosiasJessop said:
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
Even the concept of 'positive role model' is a little nebulous and vague IMO.0 -
I think there is a heightened risk in people who are immunocompromised, so super important to vaccinate those with HIV. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-09-20/hiv-is-africa-s-latest-covid-19-problemdarkage said:WRT the 'new covid variant'; it might turn out that the scientists suggesting vaccines should be shipped out to the the developing world were right. If the virus can just let rip in poor parts of the planet, then the risk of new variants emerging must be high.
0 -
So I'm triple Pfizered. My arm hurts less than my second shot, but I think that's more to do with the lady moving the needle a bit in my arm last time.
I think I would have preferred one of the other vaccines this time, as it seems logical to me that a mix of vaccines should offer wider protection, but I'm not at all ungrateful for a third Pfizer shot. I'd quite happily take a shot of AZ and Moderna as well, but that might be considered greedy!
I was advised to drink plenty of water. Beer is about 95% water, right?5 -
No more bloody Covid restrictions.rottenborough said:
Close the bloody border now!Leon said:
If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usualMaxPB said:
I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.rottenborough said:
Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.DavidL said:
The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.Leon said:
This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberallyMaxPB said:
Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.Leon said:
Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SAMaxPB said:In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.
I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.
This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers
Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.
I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.
This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case
If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done
Shut the border to SA now.
No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch
It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
If you're going to close to a couple of countries, you may as well close to all. Have quarantine for everyone, or else its going to spread either way.
We need to live with Covid not hide behind every shadow.2 -
I think it is best to compare polls with the last poll from that company, so although Cons are doing ok in this one, the lead is still shortening. It's all relative to the pollster's last poll I think0
-
If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.londonpubman said:
There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=200 -
I'm really chancing it tonight but the thread header suggests the Kantar poll field work was done between November 18th and 22nd so the majority would have been BEFORE the Prime Minister's speech ?HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
There's been no poll wholly conducted since the speech.
Perhaps tonight's local by elections will suggest if there has been any cut through though of course postal votes will have been cast well in advance.0 -
He is in favour of extending British legal jurisdiction to Northern France....Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Hmmmmm......0 -
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
ETA No. You're right. Sorry!1 -
Salmon has launched a full on attack on Sturgeon for her decision not to support the Cambo oil field with the threat to 150,000 North East jobs and requiring Scotland to import oil rather than produce their ownisam said:I think it is best to compare polls with the last poll from that company, so although Cons are doing ok in this one, the lead is still shortening. It's all relative to the pollster's last poll I think
1 -
Bridgerton is utterly incomprehensible to me.JosiasJessop said:
I've no idea, and I've not seen either. But is Bridgerton teenage boy material?Tres said:
A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).JosiasJessop said:
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
Even the concept of 'positive role model' is a little nebulous and vague IMO.1 -
Yeah, I think what I put would be part of a 'do they give' questionFarooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
1 -
We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!Tres said:
A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).JosiasJessop said:
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)0 -
That’s very fishy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Salmon has launched a full on attack on Sturgeon for her decision not to support the Cambo oil field with the threat to 150,000 North East jobs and requiring Scotland to import oil rather than produce their ownisam said:I think it is best to compare polls with the last poll from that company, so although Cons are doing ok in this one, the lead is still shortening. It's all relative to the pollster's last poll I think
1 -
Yes, we do, it’s here now, it’s not going away.Philip_Thompson said:
No more bloody Covid restrictions.rottenborough said:
Close the bloody border now!Leon said:
If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usualMaxPB said:
I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.rottenborough said:
Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.DavidL said:
The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.Leon said:
This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberallyMaxPB said:
Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.Leon said:
Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SAMaxPB said:In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.
I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.
This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers
Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.
I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.
This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case
If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done
Shut the border to SA now.
No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch
It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
If you're going to close to a couple of countries, you may as well close to all. Have quarantine for everyone, or else its going to spread either way.
We need to live with Covid not hide behind every shadow.0 -
Well done Blanch!BlancheLivermore said:So I'm triple Pfizered.
I'm getting my third prick on 6th Dec.2 -
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
2 -
Different infection pattern in South-East to Yorkshire:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=South East
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=Yorkshire and The Humber
Possibly caused by the new variant which is more infectious but less dangerous.
Has anyone analysed the data of hospitalisations per infection on a regional basis ?0 -
Talking of vaccines, what happened to anti-vaxxer Contrarian ? I've not seen him on here for ages?0
-
google provides me with biblical authority. Chapter and verse, you might sayFarooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
Luc 9:13 Jésus leur dit: Donnez-leur vous-mêmes à manger
1 -
"Great, kid! Don't get cock-y!"GIN1138 said:
Well done Blanch!BlancheLivermore said:So I'm triple Pfizered.
I'm getting my third prick on 6th Dec.0 -
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
1 -
Nor in Squid GameOnlyLivingBoy said:
We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!Tres said:
A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).JosiasJessop said:
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
1 -
Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.Leon said:
Thoughts:Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20
1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?
What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES
That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens
This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
0 -
Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!BlancheLivermore said:
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?0 -
Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...algarkirk said:
Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.Leon said:
Thoughts:Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20
1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?
What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES
That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens
This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.
However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error
When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?2 -
Si!Farooq said:
Quoi?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!BlancheLivermore said:
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?0 -
Le socialisme, c'est la religion. Enfin la religion..Sunil_Prasannan said:
Si!Farooq said:
Quoi?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!BlancheLivermore said:
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
0 -
Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!BlancheLivermore said:
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
0 -
Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country0 -
Donnez-moi un break de tous ce Franglais, je dit!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
0 -
Oh come on!! FFS! That is so laughable. The contortions you get yourself into to support that muppet! This was not an act. He is a disorganised oaf who shouldn't be left in charge of a box of matches. You are also cherry picking the polls. This is one poll. If a number support it then maybe, just maybe it is true that a large part of the electorate, like yourself, want to endorse a cretin.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.0 -
Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
2 -
It's the presentation you do as the after dinner speaker when you everyone's had at least 1 bottle of wine.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh come on!! FFS! That is so laughable. The contortions you get yourself into to support that muppet! This was not an act. He is a disorganised oaf who shouldn't be left in charge of a box of matches. You are also cherry picking the polls. This is one poll. If a number support it then maybe, just maybe it is true that a large part of the electorate, like yourself, want to endorse a cretin.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
It was not the presentation for 10am on a Monday morning to a professional audience.0 -
Indeed. I think HY has surpassed himself in pompous and patronising approach to people he clearly sees as the "lower orders". They are clearly not clever enough to frown when their PM makes a complete twat of himself. "Good old Red Wall Man! Don't you just love him, but of course, you wouldn't invite him round for tea!"Benpointer said:
Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
1 -
Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country0 -
Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlierGIN1138 said:
Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country
6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.1 -
Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?
(It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)
(Ha bolockquote - what a typo, eh?)0 -
Well, yes, except that as someone who has (as many here also have) attended a few dinners with a speaker, I have to say I would wonder why he was being paid to deliver something so fundamentally shite.eek said:
It's the presentation you do as the after dinner speaker when you everyone's had at least 1 bottle of wine.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh come on!! FFS! That is so laughable. The contortions you get yourself into to support that muppet! This was not an act. He is a disorganised oaf who shouldn't be left in charge of a box of matches. You are also cherry picking the polls. This is one poll. If a number support it then maybe, just maybe it is true that a large part of the electorate, like yourself, want to endorse a cretin.HYUFD said:
Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.HYUFD said:
I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom typesBenpointer said:
Under 8s responding to on-line polls?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
It was not the presentation for 10am on a Monday morning to a professional audience.1 -
If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his postBenpointer said:Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?
(It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)0 -
Max, who knows about vax, says it will take 9 months to develop and deliver a tweaked jab for any new variant. So no, I fearGIN1138 said:
Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country
But we ARE promised the anti-virals in early 2022, and if they work as promised, we can still exit this fucking horrible crisis in short order
And we still don't know how bad Nu is. What worries me is that people on Twitter who are usually quite sanguine are definitely anxious this time1 -
It occurs if the text outside the complete blockquote block does not contain any actual text...Benpointer said:Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?
(It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)
Best fix is just to delete the Blockquote when it happens and just post your comment.0 -
Certainly none of us are worried at your being anxious for the 1035th time…Leon said:
Max, who knows about vax, says it will take 9 months to develop and deliver a tweaked jab for any new variant. So no, I fearGIN1138 said:
Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country
But we ARE promised the anti-virals in early 2022, and if they work as promised, we can still exit this fucking horrible crisis in short order
And we still don't know how bad Nu is. What worries me is that people on Twitter who are usually quite sanguine are definitely anxious this time0 -
I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.Nigelb said:
Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.Benpointer said:
Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...Leon said:Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void
China might have killed the world
*eyes gin*
Maybe they have done us all a big favour?
There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.
One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.
(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)
One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.
As for the 'favour', no.0 -
Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.algarkirk said:
Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.Leon said:
Thoughts:Andy_JS said:
That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.HYUFD said:Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.
'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:
Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)
Undecideds Excluded:
Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)
Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20
1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?
What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES
That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens
This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.0 -
No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?OnlyLivingBoy said:
We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!Tres said:
A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).JosiasJessop said:
There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)1 -
Thanks - I wasn't but a less than sign was causing the issue. 👍IshmaelZ said:
If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his postBenpointer said:Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?
(It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)0 -
No I didn't, have been busy so haven't had time to go through the comments.eek said:
Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlierGIN1138 said:
Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country
6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
Thanks for filling me in and @Leon too.
That's a bummer!0 -
Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!eek said:
Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlierGIN1138 said:
Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country
6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
Even Chris Snowden is saying this now.
Where is Shapps?0 -
It's possible that there is a little bit of efficacy dilution, I wouldn't bet against it anyway. I just don't think there's really anything to worry about either, at least not from our perspective of lockdowns or not lockdowns. Again, the only scenario where we lockdown is a completely vaccine evading variant and this is extremely unlikely. Think of it this way, if this variant brings booster efficacy down from 95% to 90% it's not going to make any real difference to our overall picture, we may need to bring in over 18s boosters sooner rather than later but it's not going to cause any lockdowns.Leon said:Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa
Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s
Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country1 -
In my experience, the only people to highlight International Men's Day do so to use it as a platform to bang on about how beastly men are and how unfair everything is to women.CatMan said:
No, we need it to troll people who when it's International Womens Day say "But why isn't there one for Men?"Tres said:I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-594212592 -
I remember my classmates who studied Latin showing me that very book!BlancheLivermore said:
Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!BlancheLivermore said:
I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!Farooq said:
Well I knew I'd get something wrong.IshmaelZ said:
I'd go with leur, not ils.Farooq said:
I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.BlancheLivermore said:
Donnent-ils, non?Farooq said:
One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French governmentFarooq said:
Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threatStark_Dawning said:
Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?GIN1138 said:Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????
EDIT: seen your edit now
EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
I on the other hand had this;
0
This discussion has been closed.