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The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,287
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...

    That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.
    I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual test

    It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
    "That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."

    Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
    Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofc
    Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.
    You never lose the scientific training.
    You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.

    Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
    Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.

    Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)

    And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
    I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.

    I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
    I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?
    No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.

    Which I thought was shit solution.
    Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.
    Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.

    I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
    Bicycle day! 😵‍💫

    From actually looking for something for bad chests?
    I am having a drop of wine waiting for my other half to come home, but you should know what I mean, I am making Lucy’d (sic) sense.

    Lucy in the sky, with diamonds is apparently a painting by a primary school child!

    Yes. And Ebenezer Goode was a Methodist too
    I like this StreamOfConciousnessDrunkPosting.

    Much better than the fighty stuff we get in the late evening.
    Yes, at 9.30 PB can resemble the street outside a 1950s Gorbals pub as the punters get chucked out. And hours to wait yet till the milkman comes so one can make up some electric soup with the gas from the lights in the closes.
    Now I have a vision of a cobbled street, with a million copies of SeanT standing outside the pub dressed as Agent Smith, chanting fight fight fight........
  • TimSTimS Posts: 552
    MaxPB said:

    One of the other reason to not impose economic sanctions like border closure on countries that detect new variants is because they will do what most of Europe has done and stop sequencing. It's happened to the UK a few times (unnecessarily too) and it's been annoying then and I'd hope the government was clear headed enough to see the consequences of closing the border to the country that detects variants first, though not necessarily where they originate from or where the variant is most present.

    Very important point. SA sequences a lot, so do we, many others don't.

    Closing borders also sends a directional message and whilst I'm not usually a slippery-sloper, I could easily see "Plan B" getting more likely once we have crossed the Rubicon into travel restrictions like this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,652
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.

    I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.

    Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SA

    This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers

    Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
    Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.

    As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.

    I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.

    This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
    This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberally

    It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case

    If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done

    The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.
    Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.

    Shut the border to SA now.
    I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.
    If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usual

    No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch

    It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
    Close the bloody border now!

    Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    edited November 25
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.

    I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.

    Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SA

    This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers

    Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
    Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.

    As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.

    I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.

    This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
    This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberally

    It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case

    If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done

    The thing is, we can't close the border every single time a new variant pops up. As for delta, in all honesty the way it's worked out is that the early seeding of delta in the UK has probably made our exit wave 3-4x the size it would otherwise have been. I'm yet to be convinced this wasn't a good thing for the UK. As you can see from the incoming data we're seeing nothing like the take off that the rest of Europe is seeing. That delta seeded exit wave has fortified our level population immunity.

    A lot of this is based on random luck, in some sense we were pretty lucky to get delta early in the spring and summer rather than late summer and autumn, in another we were also sensible to reopen and be damned.

    Anyway, I'm still not convinced that there is any reason to panic, variants will come and go, I just can't bring myself to get worked up about them, mainly because it will take a quite some doing to outcompete the new delta subvariant that is slowly making its way through the country. Delta was our nightmare, now it might turn our to be our way out of this.
    No but we should have closed the borders immediately at the start of the pandemic. We locked down the domestic population but allowed flights to continue. I can't think of a logical reason for doing that.
    Yes, that was the most idiotic decision this government came up with and that's a pretty long a storied list. We're now in a different phase of the pandemic and border closures should for variants seem unnecessary. If the variant completely evades the vaccine then we're all fucked for another 6 months anyway while we wait for Pfizer, Moderna and AZ to retool their existing vaccines.
    But that is why we should close the border. If the variant evades the vaccine we want to fend it off as long as possible, giving the boffins time to tweak the vax and/or develop antivirals (hurry up Pfizer!)

    Why not buy us a fortnight or a month with one simple measure? Close the border. Redlist southern Africa
    The process is a minimum of 6 months to design, test, trial and ramp up manufacturing of a new variant buster vaccine, plus a minimum of 3 months to get 50m doses out there. Our best case scenario is 9 months from detecting a vaccine evading variant to getting everyone vaccinated. I don't see what two weeks buys us, we're going to be locked down for 6-8 months of it, that is simply unavoidable. The nation has decided that not letting old people die is more important than freedom when they die at a rate of more than 300-400 per day, less than that seems to be an acceptable loss of life for freedom.
    But you forget the Pfizer anti-viral cavalry. They aim to start mass production at the end of the year. If this drug is as good as it seems (God willing) then there IS a reason to ward off Nu for a few weeks. That delay could save many lives

    Of course this is all speculation, at the mo
    Hmm, the mechanism of the anti-virals would probably make a vaccine evading variant also able to evade the three or four anti-viral candidates out there...
    Why ?
    The Pfizer antiviral is a protease inhibitor* (as is the Merck pill), so a vaccine evading spike mutation would make no difference to it.

    *Actually a cocktail of two.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,996
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    I think not letting Thomas the Tank Engine travel to the North East will have a more lasting political impact than Peppa Pig.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,399
    This is not an outlier. It's what to expect when all recent polls have both parties in the range 34-40. It's reasonable to assume they are about 37 each, but with the recent trend favouring Labour.

    As always we won't really know anything until the next poll, at which point our knowledge state will be that we don't really know anything until the next poll.

    Polls are like a statement of a share price in shares that cannot be traded except once, on one day, every few years and are just as helpful.

    Nothing has happened to change my view that Tory majority (326+) and NOM are about level in probability, with about a 5% chance of a Labour majority (326+).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Great day for Boris too after recent weeks.

    Tories back in the lead and Scottish Nationalism collapsing off a cliff edge in 2 polls too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,287

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...

    That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.
    I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual test

    It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
    "That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."

    Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
    Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofc
    Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.
    You never lose the scientific training.
    You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.

    Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
    Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.

    Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)

    And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
    I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.

    I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
    I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?
    No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.

    Which I thought was shit solution.
    Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.
    Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.

    I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
    Einstein claimed that he was unaware of Michelson–Morley when he wrote the Special Relativity paper, and worked it all out from Clerk Maxwell's equations
    He always was a clever bugger.
    James Clerk Maxwell deserves much wider recognition IMO. More of the modern world is built on his shoulders than Einstein's, IMO.
    Dirac
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...

    That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.
    I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual test

    It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
    "That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."

    Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
    Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofc
    Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.
    You never lose the scientific training.
    You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.

    Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
    Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.

    Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)

    And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
    I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.

    I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
    I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?
    No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.

    Which I thought was shit solution.
    Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.
    Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.

    I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
    Bicycle day! 😵‍💫

    From actually looking for something for bad chests?
    I am having a drop of wine waiting for my other half to come home, but you should know what I mean, I am making Lucy’d (sic) sense.

    Lucy in the sky, with diamonds is apparently a painting by a primary school child!

    Yes. And Ebenezer Goode was a Methodist too
    I like this StreamOfConciousnessDrunkPosting.

    Much better than the fighty stuff we get in the late evening.
    Ah, another excuse to post a link to one of my top 5 songs of all time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBpq7MctZcc
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Effect of variants at this stage:

    Full immunity evasion: Essentially a new, different pandemic. This is usually caused by a new zoonotic introduction, not simply the evolution of an existing strain in humans.

    Partial immunity evasion: better at infecting immune people. Since they have some immunity, they get a cold. And next time a milder cold. A few more unvaccinated die each time. This will happen. It IS the endemic endgame, not a setback.

    More transmissible variant: since R0 is already high and tricky to raise by much, moves the theoretical herd immunity level by only a couple of percent and then likely only causes a couple of week's damage before we end up as close to herd immunity as we were before and Rt bends back down. Very quickly gets outcompeted by the partial immune evasion variant. This is what SA variant would do if it outcompetes Delta.

    More kid friendly variant: Rips through schools and gets us close to herd immunity. Ultimately replaced by the partial immune evasion variant.

    Interesting

    Surely we also need to know if prior infection with Delta (or Beta etc) gives some or total immunity to Nu?...
    It's a mix of stuff - effectiveness of prior vaccination; combination of prior vaccination and breakthrough infection; unvaccinated prior infection; double boosted vaccine etc.

    It seems fairly unlikely that an immune evading variant, which is also effective at reproducing itself is going to emerge. Possible, I guess, but I'm fairly sanguine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    Pro_Rata said:

    Effect of variants at this stage:

    Full immunity evasion: Essentially a new, different pandemic. This is usually caused by a new zoonotic introduction, not simply the evolution of an existing strain in humans.

    Partial immunity evasion: better at infecting immune people. Since they have some immunity, they get a cold. And next time a milder cold. A few more unvaccinated die each time. This will happen. It IS the endemic endgame, not a setback.

    More transmissible variant: since R0 is already high and tricky to raise by much, moves the theoretical herd immunity level by only a couple of percent and then likely only causes a couple of week's damage before we end up as close to herd immunity as we were before and Rt bends back down. Very quickly gets outcompeted by the partial immune evasion variant. This is what SA variant would do if it outcompetes Delta.

    More kid friendly variant: Rips through schools and gets us close to herd immunity. Ultimately replaced by the partial immune evasion variant.

    Nice analysis.

    (No idea whether it's sound or not though tbh!)
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 997

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.

    I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.

    Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SA

    This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers

    Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
    Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.

    As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.

    I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.

    This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
    This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberally

    It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case

    If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done

    The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.
    Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.

    Shut the border to SA now.
    I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.
    If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usual

    No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch

    It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
    Close the bloody border now!

    Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
    I would agree, I would rather see us overeact initially to this new variant and be extremely cautious than become complacent with a strain we don't fully understand yet.

    We can easily roll back and remove restrictions in terms of travel if we got it wrong.

    I am not super worried about this variant until we know more, but we need to be cautious and sensible.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,866
    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    I felt a bit of an idiot queuing for 3.5 hours Sunday before last for a booster instead of waiting for a December 11 appointment. Feel a bit less silly now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Great day for Boris too after recent weeks.

    Tories back in the lead and Scottish Nationalism collapsing off a cliff edge in 2 polls too
    What did I will the other poll show?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Got to hope for herd immunity from this gnu variant.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Could be an outlier. Peppa (get spelling right please!) Piggate (Lester's relative?) may take a while to get into the public consciousness. Even if it doesn't per se, it is just another piece of evidence that the idiot is not up to the job and needs replacing. fast.

    Either way, Bozo needs to understand the well known mantra of the 6 Ps. Perfect Preparation Prevents Peppa Pig Presentations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,371
    Afternoon all :)

    It's one poll and one or two on here are clearly over-excited (perhaps a side effect of the booster vaccination of which we have not been made aware).

    Is it a trend setter? Perhaps or it might be an outlier - in truth, the two main parties are statistically tied at 36-38 each with the rest of the electorate fragmented between LDs, Greens, SNP, PC, Reform and others.

    That represents a small but significant swing from Conservative to Labour of say 5.5% but the key is where is that swing in terms of seats and I suspect trying to glean that from sub samples isn't worth anyone's time or effort.

    "What about local by elections?" I hear nobody ask. The "evidence" is there's still plenty able and willing to vote Conservative - the party is making gains albeit often aided and abetted by the inability of the opposition to think strategically or even tactically but that's democracy I suppose.

    13 contests today for example - the one with the market up is in @HYUFD's old hunting ground of Tunbridge Wells -Speldhurst and Bidborough Ward where the daughter of the deceased Conservative councillor is standing for her father's seat but faces the invincible might (perhaps a slight exaggeration) of the Tunbridge Wells Alliance - a group presumably dedicated to restoring Tunbridge Wells to its rightful place as capital of the universe (another exaggeration I fear).

    The TWA can be backed at 1.58, the Conservative at 2.46 and the Labour also ran (one might suppose) at 30.
  • Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,460

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    The poll was pre-Piggate. I suspect the Tories will have dipped sharply on the 23rd/24th, but then the Channel tragedy has of course blanketed everything else. I suspect this will help the Conservative rating - though obviously not in a way they'd have wished - by turning attention to another problem which, like the pandemic, nearly everyone accepts is not entirely soluble by any single government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...

    That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.
    I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual test

    It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
    "That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."

    Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
    Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofc
    Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.
    You never lose the scientific training.
    You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.

    Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
    Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.

    Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)

    And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
    I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.

    I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
    I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?
    No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.

    Which I thought was shit solution.
    Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.
    Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.

    I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
    Einstein claimed that he was unaware of Michelson–Morley when he wrote the Special Relativity paper, and worked it all out from Clerk Maxwell's equations
    He always was a clever bugger.
    James Clerk Maxwell deserves much wider recognition IMO. More of the modern world is built on his shoulders than Einstein's, IMO.
    Dirac
    Federico Faggin.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    It's one poll and one or two on here are clearly over-excited (perhaps a side effect of the booster vaccination of which we have not been made aware).

    Is it a trend setter? Perhaps or it might be an outlier - in truth, the two main parties are statistically tied at 36-38 each with the rest of the electorate fragmented between LDs, Greens, SNP, PC, Reform and others.

    That represents a small but significant swing from Conservative to Labour of say 5.5% but the key is where is that swing in terms of seats and I suspect trying to glean that from sub samples isn't worth anyone's time or effort.

    "What about local by elections?" I hear nobody ask. The "evidence" is there's still plenty able and willing to vote Conservative - the party is making gains albeit often aided and abetted by the inability of the opposition to think strategically or even tactically but that's democracy I suppose.

    13 contests today for example - the one with the market up is in @HYUFD's old hunting ground of Tunbridge Wells -Speldhurst and Bidborough Ward where the daughter of the deceased Conservative councillor is standing for her father's seat but faces the invincible might (perhaps a slight exaggeration) of the Tunbridge Wells Alliance - a group presumably dedicated to restoring Tunbridge Wells to its rightful place as capital of the universe (another exaggeration I fear).

    The TWA can be backed at 1.58, the Conservative at 2.46 and the Labour also ran (one might suppose) at 30.

    The TWA won Speldhurst in 1999 (previously it had always been Tory). I know the village well as it is near my parents and they still regularly worship at the church there and indeed I started my education at Bidborough primary school.

    There is still a lot of anger in Tunbridge Wells over development plans for the Town Centre (or lack of them now) and the TWA could win on a NIMBY ticket, especially as Labour or the LDs are not standing
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    geoffw said:

    Got to hope for herd immunity from this gnu variant.

    Nu's not Gnu....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,199
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    edited November 25

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.
    I hope to god they don't word the next one remain/leave, distinguishing remainers/leavers in the EU and indyref senses will make political discourse impossible.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 948
    WRT the 'new covid variant'; it might turn out that the scientists suggesting vaccines should be shipped out to the the developing world were right. If the virus can just let rip in poor parts of the planet, then the risk of new variants emerging must be high.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    You seem to share his contempt for the electorate.
  • TresTres Posts: 596
    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.
    I hope to god they don't word the next one remain/leave, distinguishing remainers/leavers in the EU and indyref senses will make political discourse impossible.
    There have been stories that Boris Johnson and the Scotland Office want to reword any indyref2 question, so voting to stay in the Union is the positive answer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,931
    edited November 25
    I hate to shit on any narratives but the Kantar Poll took place (largely) before the Peppa Pig moment.

    In fact based on past experience <10% of the fieldwork would have been on the day of the Peppa Pig moment, and given how long it takes for a story to feed through...
  • eekeek Posts: 15,856
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    An (incorrect) anecdote about Peppa Pig to hide the fact he's completely shafted the Red Wall.

    May work short term - it won't work once campaigning begins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    You seem to share his contempt for the electorate.
    His electorate is the RedWall.

    CBI leaders almost always vote Tory, they are not huge Boris fans but will likely still vote Tory anyway on the whole.

    Boris however won seats in the RedWall even Thatcher couldn't, he speaks to the white working class in a way few PMs have for decades. Indeed he is probably the most popular PM with the white working class since Harold Wilson. They are his voters and he knows what makes them tick
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,227
    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,371
    HYUFD said:


    The TWA won Speldhurst in 1999 (previously it had always been Tory). I know the village well as it is near my parents and they still regularly worship at the church there and indeed I started my education at Bidborough primary school.

    There is still a lot of anger in Tunbridge Wells over development plans for the Town Centre (or lack of them now) and the TWA could win on a NIMBY ticket, especially as Labour or the LDs are not standing

    Far be it for me to correct you over such matters but there is a Labour candidate.

    https://www.timeslocalnews.co.uk/tunbridge-wells-news/daughter-fights-for-the-council-seat-left-vacant-by-death-of-her-father

    This is the background to the contest.

  • GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    It was apparently last Friday, can't say I noticed it.

    Tommy Shelby is a cracking role model.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.
    It could be funny to see the likes of Boris Johnson campaign for Remain and Nicola Sturgeon for Leave.
    Funny as in psychedelic, though, not ha ha funny. Very bad idea to start messing with the question and confusing people deliberately. I hope the electoral commission takes a sensible view on it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,134
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.

    I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.

    Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SA

    This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers

    Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
    Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.

    As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.

    I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.

    This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
    This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberally

    It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case

    If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done

    Putting South Africa/Botswana/neighbouring countries with low sequencing capacity back on the red list might be a reasonable interim step. As an non-expert, it does look like the people who would know are concerned.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Pretty bloody ropey after my Moderna booster jab. Seriously sore and frozen arm, general malaise and fatigue. Much worse than AZ, which caused a tiny bit of tenderness in the shoulder...

    That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID.
    I am now near-certain that I did have Covid way back in January 2020, caught in Thailand. That's what Public Health England thought, that's why they sent me to be tested in UCLH, tho a SNAFU prevented any actual test

    It would also explain why I haven't caught Covid since, despite taking many risks in recent months: pubs, bars, restaurants, planes, the works
    "That's a sign that you've probably previously had COVID."

    Is it? First I've heard of that idea.
    Yes it has been punted before, by proper scientists, tho there are also other explanations, ofc
    Hey, my Chemistry degree still just about qualifies me as a "proper scientist" just not a practicing one.
    You never lose the scientific training.
    You know a junior asked me earlier this year whether or not I thought my degree was useful, I was going to say "not really" as always but actually after having a short think about it, I think it is pretty useful. Not the chemistry because fuck that noise, but the methodology of being a scientist and being open to any and all criticism of a theory, idea or model. I think a lot of our more public scientists, especially those in iSAGE, seem to have forgotten that a big part of science is having regular retrospectives on current theories vs real life data. It's something I've noticed myself doing over the course of this pandemic, go back on old ideas and make sure they are still relevant.

    Too many of the public scientific advisors aren't doing that exercise right now. Just today I read that some SAGE scientists are calling for the immediate implementation of plan b, despite there being not very much evidence to support that. They're stuck in a timeloop of a political agenda that lockdown measures are the only way to combat this. I'm sure when Germany, France and other major European countries go into a full lockdown in two weeks those same voices will condemn the government as irresponsible and callous for not doing the same here and in the process completely ignore the available real world data on infection rates, testing and hospitalisation.
    Agree - and it can have very real world consequences - take the AIDS pandemic - no one had to explain to Thatcher the horrors of exponential growth in an infection - something the current incumbent seemed to have difficulty getting his head around.

    Favourite observations on science "Many a grand beautiful theory has been destroyed by a single ugly fact" (yes, iSAGE, I'm looking at you - and these aren't "single" facts but whole battalions of them.)

    And of the French (which may be playing a part in the NI problems) - "it's all very well it working in practice - but does it work in theory?" I fear the EU are hung up on the theory of the integrity of the single market, ignoring the practical solutions and the ramifications of their absolutism.
    I mentioned before (I believe) a chap who accidentally disproved his own PhD right at the end, and presented the evidence at his viva.

    I would have given him his PhD and a Professorship to boot - *that* was True Science.
    I missed your earlier posting did he get his PhD?
    No - but they fudged it into a research grant of some kind to let him continue along the new line of enquiry.

    Which I thought was shit solution.
    Awwwww! That's ****ing outrageous. If his skills at research were good enough to build up a hypothesis, test it and write it up - and with the self-critical assessment to dump it - and to have a grant on top -then he had amply fulfilled the criteria for a PhD.
    Some of the greatest science has come from people carefully and exactly getting the result they didn't want.

    I always thought that Michelson–Morley should have got a Nobel.
    Einstein claimed that he was unaware of Michelson–Morley when he wrote the Special Relativity paper, and worked it all out from Clerk Maxwell's equations
    He always was a clever bugger.
    James Clerk Maxwell deserves much wider recognition IMO. More of the modern world is built on his shoulders than Einstein's, IMO.
    Dirac
    The strangest man whose own delta variant was on the heavy side.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,078

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    The wording of the question, it's nothing like the referendum question.
    Should Scotland be an independent country? vs Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK?

    The second is the better worded question because Scotland, being part of the UK, is already an independent country.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    No, we need it to troll people who when it's International Womens Day say "But why isn't there one for Men?"
  • TresTres Posts: 596
    edited November 25

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    edited November 25
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The TWA won Speldhurst in 2019 (previously it had always been Tory). I know the village well as it is near my parents and they still regularly worship at the church there and indeed I started my education at Bidborough primary school.

    There is still a lot of anger in Tunbridge Wells over development plans for the Town Centre (or lack of them now) and the TWA could win on a NIMBY ticket, especially as Labour or the LDs are not standing

    Far be it for me to correct you over such matters but there is a Labour candidate.

    https://www.timeslocalnews.co.uk/tunbridge-wells-news/daughter-fights-for-the-council-seat-left-vacant-by-death-of-her-father

    This is the background to the contest.

    Well that may help the Tories then, though there is no LD candidate
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    You seem to share his contempt for the electorate.
    His electorate is the RedWall.

    CBI leaders almost always vote Tory, they are not huge Boris fans but will likely still vote Tory anyway on the whole.

    Boris however won seats in the RedWall even Thatcher couldn't, he speaks to the white working class in a way few PMs have for decades. Indeed he is probably the most popular PM with the white working class since Harold Wilson. They are his voters and he knows what makes them tick
    So what makes them tick?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    CatMan said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    No, we need it to troll people who when it's International Womens Day say "But why isn't there one for Men?"
    But when is it International Trolling People Who When It's International Mens Day Say "But why isn't there one for Women?" Day?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    An (incorrect) anecdote about Peppa Pig to hide the fact he's completely shafted the Red Wall.

    May work short term - it won't work once campaigning begins.
    He delivered Brexit for the RedWall as promised and the average RedWall homeowner will still keep more of their assets after the Boris social care reforms than they are allowed to keep now if they need residential care
  • Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    edited November 25
    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    Got to hope for herd immunity from this gnu variant.

    Nu's not Gnu....
    No nus is good gnus.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,227
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    I've no idea, and I've not seen either. But is Bridgerton teenage boy material?

    Even the concept of 'positive role model' is a little nebulous and vague IMO.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,134
    darkage said:

    WRT the 'new covid variant'; it might turn out that the scientists suggesting vaccines should be shipped out to the the developing world were right. If the virus can just let rip in poor parts of the planet, then the risk of new variants emerging must be high.

    I think there is a heightened risk in people who are immunocompromised, so super important to vaccinate those with HIV. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-09-20/hiv-is-africa-s-latest-covid-19-problem
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    edited November 25

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.

    I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.

    Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SA

    This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers

    Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
    Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.

    As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.

    I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.

    This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
    This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberally

    It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case

    If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done

    The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.
    Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.

    Shut the border to SA now.
    I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.
    If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usual

    No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch

    It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
    Close the bloody border now!

    Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
    No more bloody Covid restrictions.

    If you're going to close to a couple of countries, you may as well close to all. Have quarantine for everyone, or else its going to spread either way.

    We need to live with Covid not hide behind every shadow.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    I think it is best to compare polls with the last poll from that company, so although Cons are doing ok in this one, the lead is still shortening. It's all relative to the pollster's last poll I think
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍
    If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,371
    HYUFD said:



    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

    I'm really chancing it tonight but the thread header suggests the Kantar poll field work was done between November 18th and 22nd so the majority would have been BEFORE the Prime Minister's speech ?

    There's been no poll wholly conducted since the speech.

    Perhaps tonight's local by elections will suggest if there has been any cut through though of course postal votes will have been cast well in advance.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,287

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    He is in favour of extending British legal jurisdiction to Northern France....

    Hmmmmm......
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 1,008
    edited November 25
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?

    ETA No. You're right. Sorry!
  • isam said:

    I think it is best to compare polls with the last poll from that company, so although Cons are doing ok in this one, the lead is still shortening. It's all relative to the pollster's last poll I think

    Salmon has launched a full on attack on Sturgeon for her decision not to support the Cambo oil field with the threat to 150,000 North East jobs and requiring Scotland to import oil rather than produce their own
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,612

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    I've no idea, and I've not seen either. But is Bridgerton teenage boy material?

    Even the concept of 'positive role model' is a little nebulous and vague IMO.
    Bridgerton is utterly incomprehensible to me.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    edited November 25

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.
    Yeah, I think what I put would be part of a 'do they give' question
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,483
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,575

    isam said:

    I think it is best to compare polls with the last poll from that company, so although Cons are doing ok in this one, the lead is still shortening. It's all relative to the pollster's last poll I think

    Salmon has launched a full on attack on Sturgeon for her decision not to support the Cambo oil field with the threat to 150,000 North East jobs and requiring Scotland to import oil rather than produce their own
    That’s very fishy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,477

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the real world the R rate in England may have just dipped below 1, with the whole economy open, schools open and everyone socialising indoors because it's fucking freezing out.

    I'm going to wait and see what this new variant brings, right now it feels like headless chickens panicking about not very much. Lets all remember one of the mega advantages that delta has is its very high R rate and it has outcompeted all other variants to a very large degree and the subvariant is thought to be 15-20% more transmissive and is outcompeting delta.

    Did you see that Nu can be detected by PCR tests? That's how they spotted it in SA

    This is mildly encouraging, because surely it would have been detected in the UK, Holland, etc, if it was here in great numbers

    Should stop flights from Africa, however. No great economic damage, a necessary precaution
    Yes, I saw. One of the interesting things about SA is that their viral lineage is mostly derived from Beta because they were cut off from the rest of the world for so long. The majority of South Africans got their derived immunity from Beta or vaccines. There's a pretty good chance that this übervariant is actually much less competitive than delta the same as a lot of the other variants that we've seen from SA.

    As I said, there's no reason to panic, firstly because it won't make any difference and secondly because there's no reason to believe that this will outcompete delta or the new delta subvariant for hosts.

    I'm also unsure that closing the border will make any difference, it's probable that we already have cases of this in the UK and all across Europe. The only way to stop this will be to introduce managed quarantine for all inbound travellers within a few days. I don't see that as feasible or useful.

    This kind of stuff is going to happen a lot over the next few months and years, some new variant or other will cause blue ticks to panic, everyone else will get on with their lives. The best thing to do it block it all out.
    This is a rare occasion where I disagree with you on Covid. We didn't close the border with India quick enough, and we seeded Delta liberally

    It's common sense to learn from that and now shut the border with SA/Botswana, and so on. Just in case

    If Nu is a real worry, then that might buy us a precious few days or weeks where we can prepare, if Nu is a teacup-storm, then no great harm has been done

    The logic of your approach is that we want people to stop catching Covid. We don't. At least not until the flu season gets going. The more who catch it right now the better. Right now, we can cope. The fall in hospitalisations over a period of over 2 weeks now shows that. A more infective variant of Covid is, on this logic, exactly what the doctor ordered.
    Not if it causes more serious illness by evading the vax to some extent.

    Shut the border to SA now.
    I'm sorry, that's an absolutely massive leap you've taken. Firstly there's no evidence that the varian evades vaccines, there's also no evidence that it has higher severity. We simply can no longer live in fear of every single variant that comes and goes. If you want to go down the border closure route then you really do need to do it like NZ and close it to everyone, not one or two countries.
    If it does evade vaccines and cause more severe disease - a huge IF I grant you - then the pressure to close the borders with Africa will become overwhelming very quickly, and the UKG will do it, just 2 weeks too late to have any effect. As usual

    No one is suggesting we go into lockdown, but it seems pretty simple to close a border with an area of the world which is not economically crucial to us. it is tough on SA and Botswana but this virus is a bitch

    It will be interesting to see how EU governments react. Especially Holland
    Close the bloody border now!

    Best case it was an over reaction and we find out in two weeks that nu is going nowhere and reopen to SA.
    No more bloody Covid restrictions.

    If you're going to close to a couple of countries, you may as well close to all. Have quarantine for everyone, or else its going to spread either way.

    We need to live with Covid not hide behind every shadow.
    Yes, we do, it’s here now, it’s not going away.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366
    edited November 25

    So I'm triple Pfizered.

    Well done Blanch!

    I'm getting my third prick on 6th Dec.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    edited November 25
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
  • Different infection pattern in South-East to Yorkshire:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&amp;areaName=South East
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&amp;areaName=Yorkshire and The Humber

    Possibly caused by the new variant which is more infectious but less dangerous.

    Has anyone analysed the data of hospitalisations per infection on a regional basis ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366
    edited November 25
    Talking of vaccines, what happened to anti-vaxxer Contrarian ? I've not seen him on here for ages?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    google provides me with biblical authority. Chapter and verse, you might say

    Luc 9:13 Jésus leur dit: Donnez-leur vous-mêmes à manger
  • GIN1138 said:

    So I'm triple Pfizered.

    Well done Blanch!

    I'm getting my third prick on 6th Dec.
    "Great, kid! Don't get cock-y!"
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

    There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

    (I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)
    A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).
    We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!
    Nor in Squid Game
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,399
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Quoi?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

    'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

    Remain: 53% (+1)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Undecideds: 10% (+1)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    Remain: 59% (+2)
    Leave: 41% (-2)

    Via
    @Survation
    , On 18-22 November,
    Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

    That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.
    Thoughts:


    1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
    2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

    What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

    That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

    This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats
    Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

    'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

    Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


    However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

    When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Quoi?
    Si!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Quoi?
    Si!
    Le socialisme, c'est la religion. Enfin la religion..
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

    Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!
    Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    Donnez-moi un break de tous ce Franglais, je dit!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    Oh come on!! FFS! That is so laughable. The contortions you get yourself into to support that muppet! This was not an act. He is a disorganised oaf who shouldn't be left in charge of a box of matches. You are also cherry picking the polls. This is one poll. If a number support it then maybe, just maybe it is true that a large part of the electorate, like yourself, want to endorse a cretin.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?
    Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat
    Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.
    It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government
    One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.
    Donnent-ils, non?
    I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

    EDIT: seen your edit now
    I'd go with leur, not ils.
    Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

    EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?
    Donnez-moi un break de tous ce Franglais, je dit!
    Je regret starting tout this. Je vais chercher my coat.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,856

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    Oh come on!! FFS! That is so laughable. The contortions you get yourself into to support that muppet! This was not an act. He is a disorganised oaf who shouldn't be left in charge of a box of matches. You are also cherry picking the polls. This is one poll. If a number support it then maybe, just maybe it is true that a large part of the electorate, like yourself, want to endorse a cretin.
    It's the presentation you do as the after dinner speaker when you everyone's had at least 1 bottle of wine.

    It was not the presentation for 10am on a Monday morning to a professional audience.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.
    Indeed. I think HY has surpassed himself in pompous and patronising approach to people he clearly sees as the "lower orders". They are clearly not clever enough to frown when their PM makes a complete twat of himself. "Good old Red Wall Man! Don't you just love him, but of course, you wouldn't invite him round for tea!"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366
    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,856
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

    6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
    + another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    edited November 25
    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    (Ha bolockquote - what a typo, eh?)
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate???? ;)

    Under 8s responding to on-line polls?
    I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types
    No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.
    Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

    Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.
    Oh come on!! FFS! That is so laughable. The contortions you get yourself into to support that muppet! This was not an act. He is a disorganised oaf who shouldn't be left in charge of a box of matches. You are also cherry picking the polls. This is one poll. If a number support it then maybe, just maybe it is true that a large part of the electorate, like yourself, want to endorse a cretin.
    It's the presentation you do as the after dinner speaker when you everyone's had at least 1 bottle of wine.

    It was not the presentation for 10am on a Monday morning to a professional audience.
    Well, yes, except that as someone who has (as many here also have) attended a few dinners with a speaker, I have to say I would wonder why he was being paid to deliver something so fundamentally shite.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

    (It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

    If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his post
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

    Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


    Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

    Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?
    Max, who knows about vax, says it will take 9 months to develop and deliver a tweaked jab for any new variant. So no, I fear

    But we ARE promised the anti-virals in early 2022, and if they work as promised, we can still exit this fucking horrible crisis in short order

    And we still don't know how bad Nu is. What worries me is that people on Twitter who are usually quite sanguine are definitely anxious this time
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