What will Rishi’s PM chances look like after today’s budget? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Blue Nun. I'll concede that it may not meet both parts of the (i) wine and (ii) under 11% criteriaTOPPING said:
I can't think of any wine of 11%. Perhaps some sparklers.IanB2 said:
Nowadays, almost all white wine as well.Scott_xP said:The devil in the detail.. the higher rates of booze duty will hit all reds above ELEVEN PER CENT.
So all red wine.
🍷
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1453350019659177990
Better wine making + global warming -> stronger wines.
He mentioned rose as becoming cheaper in his speech. Does he really think roses typically come in under 11%?
https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/253209096
Edit: to burnish my metropolitan liberal elite credentials, I should point out that my knowledge of this comes only from an unfortunate flat-share at university with someone who was - how can I put it? - not one of us. Think she went to work for Goldman Sachs. New money.0 -
I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.2 -
I still want to know how on earth that advert got past anyone, and how on earth those people are still employed by John Lewis.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.
It was without doubt the worst advert I've seen in years (and I watch a few bit of TV streamed from the states with adverts included).0 -
Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?0 -
I thought that had a decent number of viewers? There were certainly more people turning up to chess clubs for a while after it. Certainly more than do now (or at least did before the pandemic).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Interesting to about three people, as Channel 4 discovered when it bought the rights to Kasparov versus Short for peak evening viewing. They even curtailed the racing to get there for the start in case they missed the first ever Foolsmate in a world championship match.noneoftheabove said:
Yes! Not sure what happened but was meant as a reply to the Bill Gates chess post.DavidL said:
This is either incredibly subtle or a reply to a different post.noneoftheabove said:
Starting without a queen would be more interesting than 30 seconds time limit.DavidL said:Oh, and as I forecast this morning when mocking the IMF forecast that we would still be down 3% on 2019 GDP in 2024 it does appear we will be there by the end of this year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59062392
Carlsen without a queen vs Gates would have been interesting, and possibly determined by how much time each player had, the more time the better the chance for Gates. Whereas Carlsen with 30 seconds and all the pieces will win over 99% of the time.
Any half reasonable player could easily beat Magnus with a queen head start given more than 5 seconds a move.
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Sunak and Johnson will run out more quickly because they won't tax the rich.Fishing said:
True I think but eventually, or maybe quite soon, what happened to the dismal Brown and Blair will happen to the only slightly less dismal Sunak and Johnson - they'll run out of other people's money.DavidL said:What we do seem to have seen is a budget that Ed Miliband might have been pretty proud of had things gone differently. A truly massive increase in public spending, some increases in taxes, notably for businesses through CT and ENI, and yet projected deficits which fall very rapidly as a share of GDP.
I suspect that many on the right of the Tory party will be quietly appalled but they will be nowhere near as appalled as the pretty competent Labour shadow Treasury team. Boris and Rishi are running an extremely centrist, almost fractionally left of centre, government and it does not leave Labour with much room for offering a substantive alternative.
Bit like what Blair & Brown did to the Tories.0 -
If pb posts had to be interesting to more than a niche audience, pb would not exist.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Interesting to about three people, as Channel 4 discovered when it bought the rights to Kasparov versus Short for peak evening viewing. They even curtailed the racing to get there for the start in case they missed the first ever Foolsmate in a world championship match.noneoftheabove said:
Yes! Not sure what happened but was meant as a reply to the Bill Gates chess post.DavidL said:
This is either incredibly subtle or a reply to a different post.noneoftheabove said:
Starting without a queen would be more interesting than 30 seconds time limit.DavidL said:Oh, and as I forecast this morning when mocking the IMF forecast that we would still be down 3% on 2019 GDP in 2024 it does appear we will be there by the end of this year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59062392
Carlsen without a queen vs Gates would have been interesting, and possibly determined by how much time each player had, the more time the better the chance for Gates. Whereas Carlsen with 30 seconds and all the pieces will win over 99% of the time.2 -
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.4 -
They don't have any qualms about using male pronouns to describe someone oblivious to the consequences of their actions.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.0 -
Well quite. This is a site for people of all political persuasions, who are into test cricket, unusual wines, chess strategy, and trains.noneoftheabove said:
If pb posts had to be interesting to more than a niche audience, pb would not exist.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Interesting to about three people, as Channel 4 discovered when it bought the rights to Kasparov versus Short for peak evening viewing. They even curtailed the racing to get there for the start in case they missed the first ever Foolsmate in a world championship match.noneoftheabove said:
Yes! Not sure what happened but was meant as a reply to the Bill Gates chess post.DavidL said:
This is either incredibly subtle or a reply to a different post.noneoftheabove said:
Starting without a queen would be more interesting than 30 seconds time limit.DavidL said:Oh, and as I forecast this morning when mocking the IMF forecast that we would still be down 3% on 2019 GDP in 2024 it does appear we will be there by the end of this year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59062392
Carlsen without a queen vs Gates would have been interesting, and possibly determined by how much time each player had, the more time the better the chance for Gates. Whereas Carlsen with 30 seconds and all the pieces will win over 99% of the time.2 -
It was an attempt to capture the zeitgeist. But ended up asking more questions than it answered.eek said:
I still want to know how on earth that advert got past anyone, and how on earth those people are still employed by John Lewis.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.
It was without doubt the worst advert I've seen in years (and I watch a few bit of TV streamed from the states with adverts included).0 -
The intent was to rile people up and get them talking on twitter. It succeeded in doing that but unfortunately all they did was rile up their own customers.eek said:
I still want to know how on earth that advert got past anyone, and how on earth those people are still employed by John Lewis.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.
It was without doubt the worst advert I've seen in years (and I watch a few bit of TV streamed from the states with adverts included).0 -
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.2 -
Rachel has won universal plaudits on PB – from both sides of the divide. Indeed, the PB Tories have been generous with their praise.Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
The more interesting question is now perhaps: what does she do next to make her play for the leadership?
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A pedant notes: it wasn't 'a depiction of a young actor'. It was a depiction of a child. Who was depicted by a young actor.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.3 -
It's the best one since William Hague used it:Cookie said:
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/27/hague-inspires-reeves-budget-response/0 -
I suspect she didn't write it, but she delivered it well. But yes, it's a beautifully crafted line that strikes right at the heart of the cost of living theme.Cookie said:
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.0 -
Mr. Cookie, that only stacks up if Labour are promising to cut taxes, though.
Otherwise their only option is to hike borrowing even more to splurge even more money.
It'd be interesting if Labour became fiscally conservative. Not going to happen, though.0 -
Any predictions for 4 o'clock? I'm going for 34,898; 240.0
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Absolutely nothing - at least not until after the next GE. Starmer won't be challenged before then.Anabobazina said:
Rachel has won universal plaudits on PB – from both sides of the divide. Indeed, the PB Tories have been generous with their praise.Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
The more interesting question is now perhaps: what does she do next to make her play for the leadership?
And it does Starmer no harm to have a brilliant Shadow Chancellor, and Reeves no harm to shine in that role.3 -
Well they oppose the insane increase in NI for starters, so there's that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cookie, that only stacks up if Labour are promising to cut taxes, though.
Otherwise their only option is to hike borrowing even more to splurge even more money.
It'd be interesting if Labour became fiscally conservative. Not going to happen, though.0 -
Just watched the John Lewis Let Life Happen advert for the first time and thought it was great. Far better, in fact, than most of their much-vaunted Christmas commercials. Did not mind, or really notice, the woke business. Just a shame it was advertising a completely different product from the one they actually sell.TOPPING said:
It was an attempt to capture the zeitgeist. But ended up asking more questions than it answered.eek said:
I still want to know how on earth that advert got past anyone, and how on earth those people are still employed by John Lewis.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.
It was without doubt the worst advert I've seen in years (and I watch a few bit of TV streamed from the states with adverts included). 0 -
The Reeves version is far superior. The casting of Boris as the distracting, flamboyant frontman is perfect.AlistairM said:
It's the best one since William Hague used it:Cookie said:
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/27/hague-inspires-reeves-budget-response/4 -
ALERT ALERT, we have 3rd Doses on the dashboard
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Perhaps they are implying that the behaviour depicted is typical for actors.Cookie said:
A pedant notes: it wasn't 'a depiction of a young actor'. It was a depiction of a child. Who was depicted by a young actor.TOPPING said:
LOL.BlancheLivermore said:John Lewis explain their insurance ad
Weasel words though. "depiction of a young actor..."
It looks for all the world that it depicts a boy who likes dressing up with all the associated implications.1 -
Still CAN'T WAKE THE DRAKE.
Where are the Welsh numbers?
Edit: sorry, they are there. I misread the dashboard.0 -
Thanks! I've got his books on the RN myself. But had not been aware of the HFE link.Malmesbury said:
The math prof had read one equation on stability, and claimed that 1mm of water would cause any RoRo ship to capsize. and had gone hot foot to the BBC....Carnyx said:
Oh? What was his view vs the maths prof? Presumably about the importance of free water sloshing around the car hold?Malmesbury said:
What I would really enjoy is a demolition job such as DK Brown did after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster.JBriskin3 said:
Fair enough - I assume Rishi's calculator does add 2+2 to equal 4 but he's probably utilised some Civil Service prepared graphs as well.Malmesbury said:
I was referring to the journalist claiming to be baffled by Science - that tends to be code for "the bad person used numbers and things I don't want to know about"JBriskin3 said:
If your being snippy with me here's my Budget Reaction:Malmesbury said:
You mean he used maths more complex than 2+2?JBriskin3 said:Kate McCann of Sky News admits Rishi baffled us with Science.
That 2021 6pc growth is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
He demolished a journalist and a strangely ignorant maths professor who'd read a book on naval architecture for 1 minute.
I still recall the plaintiff cries from the interviewer that it was a bit "complex"...
DK Brown gently pointed out that this was bollocks - informed by his having designed such ships and being taught the design principles by Baker* (the chap who was *the* landing ship designer in the RN, in WWII)
EDIT: In addition Brown was a serious authority on ship stability. His books on the Royal Navy have massive chunks on the problems and successes in various classes of this.
*Who designed the landing ships to be stable even when the vehicle deck was flooded. To prove this he trialled deliberately flooding the lead craft of various classes. At sea.... As Brown pointed out - a nice idea for civilian vessels as well...0 -
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England 41,498->37,5020
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So, numbers are heading in the right direction, but I'd probably want them to be slightly better given it's half term.Alistair said:0 -
Many great lines have a long history of use.AlistairM said:
It's the best one since William Hague used it:Cookie said:
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/27/hague-inspires-reeves-budget-response/
From the same paragraph of RR's speech;
"This country deserves better..." As used by BoJo in 2019 and Blair in 1997. Angry about now, hope for the future. It's a goodun.0 -
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?1 -
The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.0
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That's a bit desperate from Guido - the theme of the pickpocket chancellor has been around for a long time, as far as I recall. The wording is quite different, Kinnock-Biden it is not. If that's the worst they can come up with then Reeves should be pleased.AlistairM said:
It's the best one since William Hague used it:Cookie said:
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/27/hague-inspires-reeves-budget-response/2 -
You mean RR's line? It works as an attack line. It doesn't have to be a coherent policy position from Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cookie, that only stacks up if Labour are promising to cut taxes, though.
Otherwise their only option is to hike borrowing even more to splurge even more money.
It'd be interesting if Labour became fiscally conservative. Not going to happen, though.
But it will be interesting to see what they propose to do. Do they propose to spend less? Or borrow more?0 -
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?0 -
It's something I've come around to, and the more it's investigated, the better it looks.Philip_Thompson said:
Maybe.Mexicanpete said:
Back on board the Boris bus, thank goodness for that!Philip_Thompson said:From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.
Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.
People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.
Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.
This is an issue I care passionately about which I've been campaigning about for years. Its not like I've suddenly just discovered this issue - this is something I did a paper on nearly two decades ago and is something I have long really cared about. There's a reason why when it was named other posters name-checked me on it, this is something I've been advocating for here.
The devil will be in the details. It will be interesting to see if this stands up in the light of day but if it does then Rishi may have won me back with this move.
But I'll want further such steps in the future, this isn't the end of the line as far as I'm concerned.
Whilst some people jink at the "Unconditional" bit, it must be borne in mind that the alternative to Unconditional Basic Income is Conditional Basic Income. Because no modern country just sits by and let people starve.
Conditional Basic Income means that the State gets to dictate the conditions, monitor the conditions, assess you against those conditions, and implement the conditions.
And, because this is the case, it smothers citizens in need with complex, lengthy, and often ambiguous forms and documentation and repeated assessments, as well as incurring a delay when in need. This increases tension and stress just when said citizens are most stressed, and this damages the decision-making powers of the brain (this surprised me initially, but there are a lot of studies on it).
So just when people need a clear mind, they're clouded. And then we hold their (impaired) decisions against them, adding punitive elements to the conditions.
Set it up such that it replaces the tax allowance and, yes, you might need specific extra targeted benefits (such as for those who are disabled), but these are specific and far smaller add-ons.1 -
What's the positivity rate?Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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Yes.Selebian said:
That's a bit desperate from Guido - the theme of the pickpocket chancellor has been around for a long time, as far as I recall. The wording is quite different, Kinnock-Biden it is not. If that's the worst they can come up with then Reeves should be pleased.AlistairM said:
It's the best one since William Hague used it:Cookie said:
Was RR responsible for that line? If so, she has come up with a better attack line - and put it more eloquently - than anything SKS has managed in the last 20 months. In fact, it's better than anything anyone from Labour has managed for over a decade.Anabobazina said:
"The Prime Minister is the frontman, distracting people with his wild promises. All the while, his Chancellor dips his hand in their pocket. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and realise your purse has been lifted."Northern_Al said:I missed Rachel Reeves, but have now read her speech. If anybody else is interested the full text is here:
https://labourlist.org/2021/10/labour-would-put-working-people-first-rachel-reeves-full-budget-response/
It is, in my view, mightily impressive. Careful reading reveals, I think, the battlegrounds for the next general election. It also, I think, destroys the myth that Sunak delivered a 'New Labour' type budget.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/27/hague-inspires-reeves-budget-response/
Weak, weak, weak.
(from Guido)1 -
I put another £200 on Labour poll lead by end of 2021 today1
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They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^20 -
LAB need to prepare for the future once Keir has lost the election.
As I have said on here before there are not many credible candidates. Rayner can be discounted. People like Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn - and Ed - are yesterday's contenders. So Rachel is a good option for LAB.0 -
Can somebody tell me, how was the budget0
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I'm not sure the personality of prime minister needs to be controlled for in this comparison.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?0 -
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1453282468199608327?t=cYIN67QBOp77jPlI_QzqOg
Labour poll lead soon0 -
Clearly unrelated to the Denmark situation you're talking about, but someone in Denmark is paying to advertise Danish "oyster safaris" to me on twitter. I've seen three of them today.FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?0 -
The main thing to take away is the reappearance of masks on the Conservative front bench.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody tell me, how was the budget
Haven't looked at anything else.1 -
The R from cases peaked around the 16th, so it isn't the half term...rottenborough said:
What's the positivity rate?Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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Are you betting on Smarkets? That market is a lead by 2 November which is next Tuesday, not the end of the year.CorrectHorseBattery said:I put another £200 on Labour poll lead by end of 2021 today
The graph isn't showing any matched bets for today yet. If your bet isn't matched and you've just put it on hoping it gets selected at better odds than what's currently available you may want to cancel your bet if you didn't realise the market ends on Tuesday not the end of the year.0 -
Sure, but how can it have been any different? Our knowledge of case numbers is purely coming from tests taken. We need to stop reporting and stressing about the number of new infections and purely concentrate on hospitalisations.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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Running the numbers now. The idiots who DDOS the API with too many requests are going on The List.rottenborough said:
What's the positivity rate?Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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The number of polls you are gambling on is steadily decreasing, however. VICorrectHorseBattery said:I put another £200 on Labour poll lead by end of 2021 today
polls tend not to be worth doing during the holiday period.0 -
There seem to be plenty of both reds and whites under 11%.rottenborough said:
He doesn't drink, so maybe he hasn't got a clue about the percentages?IanB2 said:
Nowadays, almost all white wine as well.Scott_xP said:The devil in the detail.. the higher rates of booze duty will hit all reds above ELEVEN PER CENT.
So all red wine.
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https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1453350019659177990
Better wine making + global warming -> stronger wines.
He mentioned rose as becoming cheaper in his speech. Does he really think roses typically come in under 11%?
Laithwaites have 79 and 36 respectively afaics.0 -
No I am not.Philip_Thompson said:
Are you betting on Smarkets? That market is a lead by 2 November which is next Tuesday, not the end of the year.CorrectHorseBattery said:I put another £200 on Labour poll lead by end of 2021 today
The graph isn't showing any matched bets for today yet. If your bet isn't matched and you've just put it on hoping it gets selected at better odds than what's currently available you may want to cancel your bet if you didn't realise the market ends on Tuesday not the end of the year.0 -
Hm - it's certainly not as good as I'd like given it's half term.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
I'd maintain that the fall started before half term though.
It'll be interesting to see how the various age brackets are doing in a few days.
EDIT: Actually, scratch that - I misread where we were 7 days ago. I'd rate the fall so far as 'about the minimum I'd like to see to be confident we're going in the right direction.'0 -
Are people clutching at straws re COVID as the fall has not arrived, wrong again why am I not surprised.
Plan B now.0 -
Rolling 7-day peak was on 20th with 46.7K cases. This was of course before half-term but could well be people not wanting to test before going away. There does seem to be a gradual decline but too soon to tell how much is caused by half term. I still think there can't be many more school kids who have yet to develop immunity.Malmesbury said:
The R from cases peaked around the 16th, so it isn't the half term...rottenborough said:
What's the positivity rate?Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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It is the lateral flow tests that drop during school holidays isn't it?Pulpstar said:
Pillar 1 & 2 testsAlistair said:England 41,498->37,502
19th October, 797990
26th October, 732736
(91.8%)
Cases @ 90.3%.
There might be a true drop - but it's small.
They have a lower positivity rate than the PCR tests, so it might not be correct to compare ratios directly.
It does seem to be a very slow fall, though, particularly as the SW retest data will be dropping out.
Tomorrow likely to be slightly higher again (as usual)?0 -
If we've hit "herd immunity" then true case numbers should drop. Anything policy related should be driven of course by hospitalisations as you say; and not by the flu/cold like symptons most healthy vaccinated people get as cases.Stocky said:
Sure, but how can it have been any different? Our knowledge of case numbers is purely coming from tests taken. We need to stop reporting and stressing about the number of new infections and purely concentrate on hospitalisations.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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The local R data from yesterday's runCookie said:
Hm - it's certainly not as good as I'd like given it's half term.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
I'd maintain that the fall started before half term though.
It'll be interesting to see how the various age brackets are doing in a few days.
https://i.imgur.com/WIZmlk7.png
Overal UK case R from yesterdays run
https://i.imgur.com/87vRIJb.png
R peaked on the 16th0 -
For Englandrottenborough said:
What's the positivity rate?Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
But that only goes up to the 21st.0 -
Which bookies? - I can't see that market up with Smarkets.CorrectHorseBattery said:I put another £200 on Labour poll lead by end of 2021 today
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Raw population density isn't that important, surely, as number of people living in cities and in close proximity to each other. If the Highlands of Scotland suddenly declared in indepedence, it wouldn't result in case rates shooting up in Edinburgh and Glasgow.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^20 -
I think there is a (small) fall, and hospitalisations look like they're falling a bit too. Plan B doesn't need to be case based unless it's at least at 100,000 and probably more.CorrectHorseBattery said:Are people clutching at straws re COVID as the fall has not arrived, wrong again why am I not surprised.
Plan B now.0 -
Yes but I'm not doing that. Denmark is not remotely as crowded as England and the towns and cities are both less crowded than English ones and they are more spread out from each other (which acts as a natural firebreak that can be lacking in England).Farooq said:
Bulk densities are a fairly pointless metric, what matters is the distribution of crowdedness. You could change Denmark's population density hugely just by decided whether or not to include Greenland in the figures, but it would have no impact whatsoever to the transmission of the virus, because Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense, and so on would all have exactly the same conditions.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^20 -
Just watched the John Lewis advert - have I been in a cave for a few weeks?
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but the message seems to be - if you're a boy and you want to cause chaos (let's face it lots of boys do), make sure you put a dress and make up on first!0 -
Even flat is pretty good, to be fair.Pulpstar said:
I think there is a (small) fall, and hospitalisations look like they're falling a bit too.CorrectHorseBattery said:Are people clutching at straws re COVID as the fall has not arrived, wrong again why am I not surprised.
Plan B now.0 -
No straws, no need for a Plan B. What hasn't arrived is the collapse of the NHS or any reason to impose restrictions that you keep grasping for.CorrectHorseBattery said:Are people clutching at straws re COVID as the fall has not arrived, wrong again why am I not surprised.
Plan B now.0 -
New Thread
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Quite a performance by Scotland's Michael Leask against Namibia. He scored 44 off 27 balls.
The rest of the team have managed 49 off 71 balls so far.0 -
THIS THREAD HAS HAD ITS UNIVERSAL CREDIT STOPPED0
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The problem is that none of the damage is accidental - unless the parents completely lie on the claims form.FrankBooth said:Just watched the John Lewis advert - have I been in a cave for a few weeks?
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but the message seems to be - if you're a boy and you want to cause chaos (let's face it lots of boys do), make sure you put a dress and make up on first!0 -
Yes but nothing will fall unless R is below 1...Malmesbury said:
The local R data from yesterday's runCookie said:
Hm - it's certainly not as good as I'd like given it's half term.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
I'd maintain that the fall started before half term though.
It'll be interesting to see how the various age brackets are doing in a few days.
https://i.imgur.com/WIZmlk7.png
Overal UK case R from yesterdays run
https://i.imgur.com/87vRIJb.png
R peaked on the 16th
Which I think it likely is now. Slightly. Very slightly.0 -
A quick google tells me Copenhagen has a higher population density than London.Farooq said:
Bulk densities are a fairly pointless metric, what matters is the distribution of crowdedness. You could change Denmark's population density hugely just by decided whether or not to include Greenland in the figures, but it would have no impact whatsoever to the transmission of the virus, because Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense, and so on would all have exactly the same conditions.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^21 -
The way it was pronounced is the standard US pronunciation. Your way is English RP, but I think most people use the US pronunciation these days - I’ve certainly never heard it pronounced the RP way.BlancheLivermore said:Just heard Wes Streeting on R5 talking about the Budget. He was complaining about Amazon being given a massive tax break, and said the word Amazon about ten times.
Somehow, he doesn't know how it's pronounced.
It should be æməzən with the stress on the first syllable
He was saying æməzɒn (ie rhyming with con) with the stress on the final syllable
How has he never learnt to say it properly?
Since Amazon the company is a US company, pronouncing their name the way they do seems perfectly reasonable regardless.0 -
What do you mean by true case numbers though? We can never know that. All we have is the tests and if we test more then more cases will appear (though they were of course there, undetected and harmless, already). We are testing oodles of healthy schoolchildren and I think we need to stop doing this. Test poorly ones only.Pulpstar said:
If we've hit "herd immunity" then true case numbers should drop. Anything policy related should be driven of course by hospitalisations as you say; and not by the flu/cold like symptons most healthy vaccinated people get as cases.Stocky said:
Sure, but how can it have been any different? Our knowledge of case numbers is purely coming from tests taken. We need to stop reporting and stressing about the number of new infections and purely concentrate on hospitalisations.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
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But overall population does generally matter because unless everyone is crowded into a single area then countries with low density tend to have more space between towns and cities, acting as more of a natural firebreak.rcs1000 said:
Raw population density isn't that important, surely, as number of people living in cities and in close proximity to each other. If the Highlands of Scotland suddenly declared in indepedence, it wouldn't result in case rates shooting up in Edinburgh and Glasgow.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^2
Take Edinburgh and Glasgow, if you compare it to the Highlands its densely population, but if you compare it to North West England its very sparsely populated. The land between Glasgow and Edinburgh is mostly farmland and relatively uninhabited compared to the land between Liverpool and Manchester, meaning that there's a firebreak there that doesn't exist here.0 -
Quite. And it doesn't matter a bit if the Great Funen Steppe exists in parallel with the Great Central Scottish Desert with its camel-trains from Leadhills to the port at Borrowstounness which the PBTories invented the last but 34 times we had this discussion. The maths are the maths.Alistair said:
A quick google tells me Copenhagen has a higher population density than London.Farooq said:
Bulk densities are a fairly pointless metric, what matters is the distribution of crowdedness. You could change Denmark's population density hugely just by decided whether or not to include Greenland in the figures, but it would have no impact whatsoever to the transmission of the virus, because Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense, and so on would all have exactly the same conditions.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^20 -
Thanks Malmesbury - yes, I misread the figures!Malmesbury said:
The local R data from yesterday's runCookie said:
Hm - it's certainly not as good as I'd like given it's half term.Pulpstar said:The fall increasingly feels as if it's mainly half term test reduction driven rather than particularly real.
I'd maintain that the fall started before half term though.
It'll be interesting to see how the various age brackets are doing in a few days.
https://i.imgur.com/WIZmlk7.png
Overal UK case R from yesterdays run
https://i.imgur.com/87vRIJb.png
R peaked on the 16th0 -
Copenhagen population density 725/ km^2Alistair said:
A quick google tells me Copenhagen has a higher population density than London.Farooq said:
Bulk densities are a fairly pointless metric, what matters is the distribution of crowdedness. You could change Denmark's population density hugely just by decided whether or not to include Greenland in the figures, but it would have no impact whatsoever to the transmission of the virus, because Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense, and so on would all have exactly the same conditions.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^2
Islington population density 16,097 / km^20 -
What are you talking about? The fall has arrived. Look at a graph! It may not have dropped like a stone, but it's going in the right direction. It's certainly not exponentiating upwards.CorrectHorseBattery said:Are people clutching at straws re COVID as the fall has not arrived, wrong again why am I not surprised.
Plan B now.1 -
The conditionality I'd place on a UBI system is in applying additional tax rates of a number of percent for a period after UBI has been accessed. This would still therefore be a taper of sorts, but would be much more controllable. And, as you say, putting the tax free allowance to a low value (but would probably need to be non-zero). The only decision for a person to make would be to decide their own advantage and to access UBI or not and whether that be temporary or permanent.Andy_Cooke said:
It's something I've come around to, and the more it's investigated, the better it looks.Philip_Thompson said:
Maybe.Mexicanpete said:
Back on board the Boris bus, thank goodness for that!Philip_Thompson said:From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.
Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.
People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.
Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.
This is an issue I care passionately about which I've been campaigning about for years. Its not like I've suddenly just discovered this issue - this is something I did a paper on nearly two decades ago and is something I have long really cared about. There's a reason why when it was named other posters name-checked me on it, this is something I've been advocating for here.
The devil will be in the details. It will be interesting to see if this stands up in the light of day but if it does then Rishi may have won me back with this move.
But I'll want further such steps in the future, this isn't the end of the line as far as I'm concerned.
Whilst some people jink at the "Unconditional" bit, it must be borne in mind that the alternative to Unconditional Basic Income is Conditional Basic Income. Because no modern country just sits by and let people starve.
Conditional Basic Income means that the State gets to dictate the conditions, monitor the conditions, assess you against those conditions, and implement the conditions.
And, because this is the case, it smothers citizens in need with complex, lengthy, and often ambiguous forms and documentation and repeated assessments, as well as incurring a delay when in need. This increases tension and stress just when said citizens are most stressed, and this damages the decision-making powers of the brain (this surprised me initially, but there are a lot of studies on it).
So just when people need a clear mind, they're clouded. And then we hold their (impaired) decisions against them, adding punitive elements to the conditions.
Set it up such that it replaces the tax allowance and, yes, you might need specific extra targeted benefits (such as for those who are disabled), but these are specific and far smaller add-ons.
The aim in such structure would be to ensure this was not a revenue buster for the treasury. It could have elements for lots of different scenarios - perhaps ultimately replacing student loans, state pensions, child benefits, institutional care costs, and with overlapping but capped additional tax rates applied to different taxes appropriate to circumstance, income tax, IHT and so forth.0 -
Their initial statement was somewhat different.eek said:
The problem is that none of the damage is accidental - unless the parents completely lie on the claims form.FrankBooth said:Just watched the John Lewis advert - have I been in a cave for a few weeks?
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but the message seems to be - if you're a boy and you want to cause chaos (let's face it lots of boys do), make sure you put a dress and make up on first!0 -
Yes, I was slightly surprised by this after all the doomy mood music - we're now vaccinating around 400k a day, taking into account firsts, seconds and boosters - not the heady heights of 600 a day from last Spring, but certainly very encouraging.rcs1000 said:
12% having had a booster is great - we really want to keep that improving, but that's very encouraging.Alistair said:ALERT ALERT, we have 3rd Doses on the dashboard
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations0 -
But, there is a fall.CorrectHorseBattery said:Are people clutching at straws re COVID as the fall has not arrived, wrong again why am I not surprised.
Plan B now.2 -
Cherry picking indeed.Farooq said:
Ridiculous cherry picking, and where did you even get the Copenhagen figure from?Philip_Thompson said:
Copenhagen population density 725/ km^2Alistair said:
A quick google tells me Copenhagen has a higher population density than London.Farooq said:
Bulk densities are a fairly pointless metric, what matters is the distribution of crowdedness. You could change Denmark's population density hugely just by decided whether or not to include Greenland in the figures, but it would have no impact whatsoever to the transmission of the virus, because Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense, and so on would all have exactly the same conditions.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^2
Islington population density 16,097 / km^2
Risible stuff from you.
Population density of Copenhagen proper: 6,800/sq km
Population density of Copenhagen Metro Area: 665/sq km
Population density of the City of London = 7,700/sq mile = 2,973/sq km
Population density of Greater London = 14,550/sq mile = 5,618/sq km
Yer pays yer money and takes yer choice.1 -
Yep, network theoretical approaches to epidemiology are more appropriate, which means number of and density at the hubs, and duration of interactions at those hubs.Farooq said:
Another problem with your analysis is that human viruses don't travel in the same way that fire does. Large numbers of people commute back and forth between both Liverpool and Manchester, and Glasgow and Edinburgh. The density of the land between is, to my estimation, unimportant.Philip_Thompson said:
But overall population does generally matter because unless everyone is crowded into a single area then countries with low density tend to have more space between towns and cities, acting as more of a natural firebreak.rcs1000 said:
Raw population density isn't that important, surely, as number of people living in cities and in close proximity to each other. If the Highlands of Scotland suddenly declared in indepedence, it wouldn't result in case rates shooting up in Edinburgh and Glasgow.Philip_Thompson said:
They do care about population density though.williamglenn said:
I don't think viruses care who the prime minister is.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps they don't have a clown for a prime minister?FrankBooth said:Can anyone explain the Denmark situation to me. They lifted all covid restrictions over a month ago and are doing fine so far as I can see. We, however, seem to be in a more difficult position.
Different vaccines/rates of take up?
Different behaviour?
Denmark population density 137 / km^2
England population density 445 / km^2
Take Edinburgh and Glasgow, if you compare it to the Highlands its densely population, but if you compare it to North West England its very sparsely populated. The land between Glasgow and Edinburgh is mostly farmland and relatively uninhabited compared to the land between Liverpool and Manchester, meaning that there's a firebreak there that doesn't exist here.
It would have been as you described in the middle ages, when viruses would have travelled at about walking pace, but nowadays they travel at diesel locomotive pace. If there was an outbreak in Manchester and Edinburgh at the same time, my guess is it'd appear in Liverpool and Glasgow before it appeared in Clock Face or Coatbridge, following the bulk population movement, not the distance.1
