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Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 7 in General
imageConference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

Above is the chart showing the changes on the betting markets for the next general election over the past year and as can be seen a hung Parliament remains the favourite with things having not really changed that much during the conferences.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    And still the best lay out there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,468
    edited October 7
    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a clear lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@afneil on @LBC: "You can have more alliteration, as Mr Johnson had, than a West Coast poet from the 1960s on LSD. That's all fine.

    "But we're a country with major problems and we need to know the Government's solution to these problems and on that Mr Johnson had not a jot."

    And that is why it is getting a beating. Sunny uplit futures are great when things are on the up. When things are on the down you have to first identify why that is and map your way out to the sunny places ahead.

    The Tory position remains incoherent. There is no crisis. There is a crisis but its your fault. There isn't a crisis because look at Europe. There is a crisis but you can't blame Brexit. There isn't a crisis and we won't bring in workers. There is a crisis and we are bringing in workers. There are no downsides. There are downsides but actually they were the plan all along and aren't they marvellous.

    If the government was not the Muppet Show, if they had an Alastair Campbell / Peter Mandleson / Dominic Cummings strategist then they would have had all this laid out. This is what we are doing, these are the issues we can mitigate, these we can't mitigate but here's how we will spin them, here's the line repeat the line until people believe it. Instead we have *this*.

    Kermit the Frog.
    What are the downsides, if any, of the driver shortage on the continent?
    It is slower and more expensive to move stuff around. But remember that the driver shortage isn't universal, it is in patches. On a continent that is both a single logistics network and a single employment market. Drivers and vehicles gets filled from other countries - as an example some of the "driver shortages" in places like Poland are due to them winning contracts in Germany.

    What is a real problem is getting stuff to the UK. My clients shift refrigerated product out of Romania to places like the Netherlands without issues. To the UK? You can't shift small loads at all. You can't consolidate very easily due to caobtage and paperwork issues. I've just opened up a chilled business for them here and it took a month to plan transport.

    And yet fools and outright liars try to tell people that there is no UK-only issue, that Europe has a driver shortage therefore its the same there. It isn't, they know it isn't, they hope that some people will just accept what they are told without question.
    That last paragraph works both ways - until I did a bit of digging, on here Boris/Brexit haters were happy for people to think it was a UK only issue
    We're in a strange paradoxical universe in which the majority viewpoints can be summarised as follows:

    Remoaners*: Brexit is causing shortages, project fear now reality. Wage rises are however a bad thing, even for those who voted for Brexit and are more reflective of other trends than of Brexit.
    Brexiteers*: Brexit is not causing shortages. There are shortages everywhere. However, despite the shortages everywhere, including in HGV drivers, increases in wages are a Brexit dividend and there are no downsides.

    *Pejorative terms intentionally used. There is also a sane minority (or perhaps a silent majority? e.g. RCS, but many others) who recognise that there are many different factors at play, that wage rises are great for those receiving them but could be bad for others who will be subject to inflation but not get rises themselves as they are still open to competition from Poles in Poland/rest of the EU if not from Poles here and that the issues are a mix of factors, Covid, post-Covid demand etc...
    I thought that Robert's contribution this morning was excellent. I also think that it is a point that both @Philip_Thompson and I have readily acknowledged. Increased wages for those who now benefit from scarcity such as HGV drivers is not cost free. It means higher costs for the rest of us in terms of goods etc. To the extent that those who have not had these increased competitive advantage are not able to increase our earnings to compensate they will be worse off. And wage inequality in our society will reduce. Which Philip and I regard as a good thing even if (being nice we do not say because) it will reduce the standard of living of professional class remainers and, indeed, myself.

    People who can afford to pay higher prices - or can negotiate higher pay to mitigate them - will always end up being fine with higher prices. Those who can't will be less enthused, however they voted in the referendum.

    As RCS has previously mentioned, an example of an economy with a higher wage structure for the "low end" jobs is Switzerland.

    I wonder how many Swiss people do those jobs.

    IIRC You need to speak both French and German and have a 2 year local Swiss qualification to work in a restaurant or some such.

    That's going to lock out a lot of people.

    RCS would be the one to speak to on that, though
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,822
    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (-)
    REFUK: 4% (-)

    via @YouGov
    , 05 - 06 Oct
    Chgs. w/ 29 Sep

    The Starmer bounce gathering pace?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    "It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different"

    Now yes, but Livingstone was not a totally discredited figure in 2008. Indeed in 2008 Livingstone was initially the strong odds-on favourite to win the election and was initially beating Boris handsomely in all the initial polls.

    My first ever political bet after joining this website was on Boris winning the Mayoral Race following tips here to back him at relatively long odds.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    edited October 7
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
    Hung Parliament is nothing like 40%.

    Probably not even 25%.

    I'd say 20% increased Tory majority.
    20% comfortable Tory majority
    35% a small Tory majority
    20% Hung Parliament
    5% Labour majority

    Though that might be being generous to Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
    I meant no overall majority. I make no claim for the rest. As you know better than me small sample sizes are always an issue.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880
    TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,794
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
    NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.

    Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.

    When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.

    And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,281
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a clear lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    It seems opinion is just not moving in either direction
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a clear lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    The Cons. seem stuck on circa 40% with little suggestion of decline. I do not believe Labour on 31%. If there was an election today 40 plays 35 looks likely to me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    felix said:

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (-)
    REFUK: 4% (-)

    via @YouGov
    , 05 - 06 Oct
    Chgs. w/ 29 Sep

    The Starmer bounce gathering pace?

    So those conferences were all well worth the money then?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    Is there any market where its possible to bet on an increased Tory majority?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    The greatest frost since 1709 according to Boris yesterday.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965

    TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.

    You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    edited October 7

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.
    All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction. So the Tories number should really be considered a lot more concrete, which it seems to be
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    edited October 7

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,281

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    Yes he is and good news
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282

    TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.

    You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.
    Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.

    Not really related to the economy at all if so.

    FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
    https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091

    "It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different"

    Now yes, but Livingstone was not a totally discredited figure in 2008. Indeed in 2008 Livingstone was initially the strong odds-on favourite to win the election and was initially beating Boris handsomely in all the initial polls.

    My first ever political bet after joining this website was on Boris winning the Mayoral Race following tips here to back him at relatively long odds.

    Indeed.

    Due to BREXIT etc, this has been memory wiped for some people.

    Livingstone was the King of London. When the Mayoral post was created, despite every attempt by Blair & Co. he walked into the role.

    Boris defeated him twice. The first was a massive shock. The Guardian went into meltdown for a bit.

    While some of the glaze was coming off Livingstone at the end, Livingstone actually increased his share of the vote from 36.8% to 37.0% when he lost the first time.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    A good thread, but:

    "It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different "

    I don't think he would be. Corbyn was crushed, but at least had the satisfaction of having stuck to most of his principles with his Far Left manifesto. So he may be discredited in 90% of the country, but much of the 10% who really counts for him still follow him. Starmer has given up all his left-wing principles, which he restated as late as the Labour leadership election (He vowed to keep Labour "radical socialist tradition" in place, for instance).

    So if Boris beats him convincingly, he won't even have the satisfaction of going down nobly - he'll just be a total failure. There's nothing more pathetic than an unpopular opportunist.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.
    All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.

    If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

  • isamisam Posts: 38,481

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.
    All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.

    If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.

    If, if, may
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.
    40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.
    All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.

    If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.

    If, if, may

    Indeed. Nothing is certain. Those who claim it is are just wrong.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,206

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    What's BJ's track record on not turning lovers into haters?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.
    40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.
    Can I let you into a little secret?

    I'm not HYUFD and I don't always agree with HYUFD.

    Shocking secret I'm sure, so don't pass it on.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

    Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotO
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255

    isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.
    All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.

    If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.

    If, if, may

    Indeed. Nothing is certain. Those who claim it is are just wrong.

    No, no, no. The future is certain. Only the past (ie my predictions) keeps changing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
    NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.

    Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.

    When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.

    And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..
    Whereas in principle I agree, I am not unconvinced that the "rebalancing" of the economy couldn't "rebalance" the political equilibrium to NOM over the next two years.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.

    Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091

    TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.

    You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.
    Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.

    Not really related to the economy at all if so.

    FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
    https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
    The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....

    A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.

    Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481

    isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.

    However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20

    All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.
    All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.

    If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.

    If, if, may

    Indeed. Nothing is certain. Those who claim it is are just wrong.

    Oh blimey!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,969
    edited October 7
    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

    Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotO

    As I say, if the next GE is seen as the choice of a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win. But as Johnson is so polarising, it could just be that voters decide the next election should be about stopping him winning again. We will see.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,468
    edited October 7
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.
    40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.
    It is at Westminster if it wins a majority. Westminster is the supreme parliament in the UK and what Westminster decides goes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    edited October 7
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.
    40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.
    It is at Westminster if it wins a majority. Westminster is the supreme parliament in the UK and what Westminster decides goes
    But not for the Scots :D ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880
    edited October 7
    Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
    NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.

    Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.

    When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.

    And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..
    Whereas in principle I agree, I am not unconvinced that the "rebalancing" of the economy couldn't "rebalance" the political equilibrium to NOM over the next two years.
    It could but in my eyes I'd put the odds of that or something else causing such a swing happening at no higher than 1/4 (and I think I'm being generous with that).

    Hence my 20% NOM rating - I've put a 5% chance of Labour in case such an unlikely event rebalances it so far to the extreme that Labour majority comes back into play - after all if we're talking about overturning a nominal over 100 seat majority in one bound, there's nothing preventing the swing being so dramatic a further few dozen more swinging too making Labour majority possible.

    60+ chance of such a rebalancing is just implausible though. Definite lay.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

    Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotO
    It will be interesting to see if that changes as the free money stops. Have we ever had a Government giving voters free money before?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,468
    edited October 7
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.
    40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.
    It is at Westminster if it wins a majority. Westminster is the supreme parliament in the UK and what Westminster decides goes
    But not for the Scots :D ?
    For the Scots too. Westminster is the supreme parliament over Scotland, Holyrood merely a creation of Westminster to run some bits of Scottish domestic policy
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    It's amazing what actual negotiation can achieve, not sniveling betrayal of the national interest like May and Robbins. Expect fireworks from May about this, she won't like seeing that there was a better deal out there than what she got.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,446
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once
    Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282

    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.

    Oh really Mike? Are you sure about?

    I backed him when you posted about it and Livingstone at the time WAS odds on favourite. I can probably dig out an old post of yours saying so as you're the reason I backed BoJo so thank you for that it was a nice first win and got me hooked to your site.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,794
    edited October 7

    Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags

    I've got to agree with them there - as you can now easily get compostable teabags you should just use them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.

    And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    edited October 7
    MaxPB said:

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    It's amazing what actual negotiation can achieve, not sniveling betrayal of the national interest like May and Robbins. Expect fireworks from May about this, she won't like seeing that there was a better deal out there than what she got.
    I really didn't think my opinion of her could get any lower but credit where it's due. Her performances since being removed have achieved this in spades.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    Can we have have bi-annual elections ?
    I'd love the 14% on Labour to have a bit more time value of money than it currently does.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,759

    The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....

    A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.

    Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"

    I believe that the preferred term is "agile development".
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    edited October 7

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.

    Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.

    Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for Labour

    So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,446

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    This is the same Lord Frost who negotiated the protocol in the first place?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    edited October 7

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once
    Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!

    Boris hatred seems to be most prevalent among younger demographics. The idea that they have had their way on anything much over recent years is for the fairies.

    By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963

    TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.

    You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.
    Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.

    Not really related to the economy at all if so.

    FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
    https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
    Whoops! Hope that’s a botched software upgrade, rather than a hack of their systems.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880
    eek said:

    Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags

    I've got to agree with them there - as you can now easily get compostable teabags you should just use them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.

    And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.
    Doesn’t need a committee to discuss it though
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091

    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.

    A week before polling day Ipsos MORI had Ken on 41% first preference vs Boris on 38%

    In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind

    The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
    The black swans are already hatching.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 521
    felix said:

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (-)
    REFUK: 4% (-)

    via @YouGov
    , 05 - 06 Oct
    Chgs. w/ 29 Sep

    The Starmer bounce gathering pace?

    The way I make sense of these varied polls is to focus on the Tory VI + REFUK and compare with Lab/Lib/Grn. Th polls are much less far apart when you do it that way.

    This one is 43% vs 49% (the rest being SNP + minor parties). It's always hard to predict the efficiency of the Lib Dem vote but that always reduces the actual advantage of the non-Tory vote significantly. Green, though, I reckon we can assume 5 of those 9% would go to Labour in a GE (and some of the rest to the LDs and SNP). Looks like small Tory majority land to me.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,969

    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.

    Looking over the PB archive PaddyPower paid out on Boris for Mayor in May 2008 on the day BEFORE the election.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481

    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.

    A week before polling day Ipsos MORI had Ken on 41% first preference vs Boris on 38%

    In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind

    The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)
    I backed Ken at odds against, so Boris was definitely fav

    A grand down the drain because I was an early sufferer of BDS - Londoners wont elect a posho that says "balderdash and piffle" I told everyone
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once
    Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!

    Boris hatred seems to be most prevalent among younger demographics. The idea that they have had their way on anything much over recent years is for the fairies.

    By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.

    Young people are piss poor at voting.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,206

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    This is the same Lord Frost who negotiated the protocol in the first place?
    Lord Frost has bowed to the superior negotiating skills of Lord Frost. A masterclass.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,822
    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    And still the best lay out there.

    The Labour majority or a personal boast?

    I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
    NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.

    Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.

    When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.

    And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..
    Fair point. I'm only on most seats and I'll probably stay that way, but I see the argument.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.

    Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.

    Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for Labour

    So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on

    Yep, I find it bizarre that the Tories are not big favourites. As you say, they should be.

  • isamisam Posts: 38,481

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
    The black swans are already hatching.
    Oooh!!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    The Tories won their majority by taking seats off their erstwhile coalition partners, rather than from Labour.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
    The black swans are already hatching.
    That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once
    Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!

    Boris hatred seems to be most prevalent among younger demographics. The idea that they have had their way on anything much over recent years is for the fairies.

    By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.

    Young people are piss poor at voting.

    Absolutely. And the old are not. Another reason why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE.

  • eekeek Posts: 15,794

    eek said:

    Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags

    I've got to agree with them there - as you can now easily get compostable teabags you should just use them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.

    And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.
    Doesn’t need a committee to discuss it though
    It's a law firm in central Newcastle. Exactly how many Eco things relating to the firm is there to actually deal with.

    One reason why these committees end up spending hours on little things is because they have no say over anything big.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,955
    DavidL said:

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    The greatest frost since 1709 according to Boris yesterday.
    Is Boris @ydoethur 's less competent, but more cunning older brother ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963

    TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.

    You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.
    Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.

    Not really related to the economy at all if so.

    FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
    https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
    The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....

    A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.

    Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"
    Oh yes, industrial IT is always a bodged-together mess of hardware and software - and once your operation is up and running, you’ll never be allowed sufficient downtime to be able to upgrade everything in one go!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 569
    Hopefully some agreement can be reached on NI but the EU won’t propose changes that fundamentally change the protocol.

    The UK government has never made a proper effort to implement what they signed up to and there’s very little goodwill left as the EU don’t trust them to honour any agreement that is made .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091
    isam said:

    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.

    A week before polling day Ipsos MORI had Ken on 41% first preference vs Boris on 38%

    In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind

    The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)
    I backed Ken at odds against, so Boris was definitely fav

    A grand down the drain because I was an early sufferer of BDS - Londoners wont elect a posho that says "balderdash and piffle" I told everyone
    A lot of people couldn't believe that King Livingstone could be dethroned.

    This is the guy who, at the peak of Blair's power in the Labour party, effortlessly walked through to the nomination. Despite everything the New Labour lot threw in the way.

    Then cruised through the election. And the next one.

    He was, for a long, long time, the Biggest Beast in London politics. There was Ken and then there were... some other people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,955
    What is going on in Poland ?
    One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1446036266164817922
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,252

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

    Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotO
    It will be interesting to see if that changes as the free money stops. Have we ever had a Government giving voters free money before?
    Right to Buy was effectively free money for council house tenants.

    The long house price booms under Thatcher-Lawson and Blair-Brown were effectively free money for homeowners.

    So yes, we have. And yes, it makes governments very popular indeed.

    Governments that have to take money away from people tend to become unpopular.

    Still, maybe this time it will be different.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    edited October 7
    @MikeSmithson
    25 January 2008 Ken is 0.7-1 according to your thread header. That's odds-on favourite is it not?


    17 January 2008 "Why not be like Boris and get two for one" - Boris was 1.94-1



    02 January 2008 " Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."


    You did a good job spotting the value in Boris, so why do you now write it off as if Ken was never favourite? Though you didn't always:

    22/11/07 "Will this make Ken's third term a certainty ... Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value."

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    glw said:

    The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....

    A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.

    Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"

    I believe that the preferred term is "agile development".
    Something that should never be allowed to sneak its way down, to anything more important that a social media site.

    (Although I do get a horrible feeling that the current generation of programmers bought up on Agile, will in a decade or two end up asking why they can’t do the same with software running cars, planes and factories). Grr….
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    edited October 7

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.
    So what you're saying is that we hold all the cards?

    I said all along if we were more willing than them to let it unravel, they'd back down.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,131

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    Economy not exactly doing great now (and hasn't been since pre financial crisis frankly). Tories still seem to win.

    It might be that this latest version of longterm economic plan will unravel the Tory coalition but I'm not holding my breath.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
    The black swans are already hatching.
    That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.
    Indeed, plenty of black swans for Christmas lunch.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,698
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

    Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotO
    Yes. A bet on Boris looks good at this stage, but bear in mind it's a bet against Events happening in the next two years and the thing is, since 2016 Events have happened thick and fast. Think back to summer 2013 or 14 was it, when PB went quiet for half hours on end, and Plato would pop up and post *tumbleweed*, or the site would discuss vegetable growing for thread after thread. I am not betting that the age of Events is now behind us.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255

    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
    The black swans are already hatching.
    That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.
    Indeed, plenty of black swans for Christmas lunch.
    A good friend of mine might have had a turkey which might have proven to be a swan obtained from a slightly dodgy source who subsequently got into some difficulties with the law last year. His mother said it was the best turkey she'd ever eaten!
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    edited October 7

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.

    Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.

    Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for Labour

    So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on

    Yep, I find it bizarre that the Tories are not big favourites. As you say, they should be.

    Indeed. So no one is saying it is certain, betting doesn't work like that. There just seems to be a n overstatement in the market of the likelyhood of a hung parliament. I reckon thats too many people feeding current polls into Electoral Calculus and saying "If this were repeated in a GE...", rather than considering the ebbs and flows of the electoral cycle, and the other polls such as leader satisfaction and personality

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091
    Nigelb said:

    What is going on in Poland ?
    One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1446036266164817922

    That's an upgrade (downgrade?) from the Spanish methodology - at least there, you got the airport.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Nigelb said:

    What is going on in Poland ?
    One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1446036266164817922

    They did that one much better in Berlin. At least it looked a little like an airport from the outside, even if it didn’t work as one!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 521

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.

    Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.

    Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for Labour

    So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on

    Yep, I find it bizarre that the Tories are not big favourites. As you say, they should be.

    It's tantamount to a bet on whether the UK economy and household finances will be better in 2 years' time, or worse. Suggests punters are expecting worse to come, rather than this being the nadir.

    I still think the Tories should be big favourites: like the SNP they have the electoral logic of a major cultural divide in their favour (united on one side, fractured on the other), and they have the track record of winning.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 569

    The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂

    Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?

    No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.
    So what you're saying is that we hold all the cards?

    I said all along if we were more willing than them to let it unravel, they'd back down.
    The EU is dealing with a government that doesn’t care if NI implodes as long as they can deflect the blame onto the EU . The EU genuinely cares for the peace process and realizes that it’s dealing with a clown in no 10 so needs to be the adult in the room.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,691
    https://twitter.com/BluffGlenn/status/1443851625198718978

    Glenn Bluff
    @BluffGlenn
    Rail usage down due to pandemic. Donny could become a major commuter town to London, Sheffield and Leeds but we need to address ticket prices. To build back better we need cheaper tickets from Doncaster. London is 1hr 26 mins away so is doable but not at £13288 for season ticket


    That's a Tory councillor in Doncaster. Does this suggest that levelling up = turn the country into London commuter belt?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have

    The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?

    They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for once

    Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.

    Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotO
    Yes. A bet on Boris looks good at this stage, but bear in mind it's a bet against Events happening in the next two years and the thing is, since 2016 Events have happened thick and fast. Think back to summer 2013 or 14 was it, when PB went quiet for half hours on end, and Plato would pop up and post *tumbleweed*, or the site would discuss vegetable growing for thread after thread. I am not betting that the age of Events is now behind us.
    Yes, of course there is a bet against events happening in the next two years. That is why the price on the Tories is 11/8ish, because the market, in my opinion, seems to have overstated the chance of things blowing up in the Tories faces. They should have blown up by now with all thats gone on since the start of 2020
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.

    And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on

    Dark Blue Cam GP lead
    Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
    Red Con VI lead


    Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.
    If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters have
    The black swans are already hatching.
    That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.
    Indeed, plenty of black swans for Christmas lunch.
    A good friend of mine might have had a turkey which might have proven to be a swan obtained from a slightly dodgy source who subsequently got into some difficulties with the law last year. His mother said it was the best turkey she'd ever eaten!
    Ha, I guess one big bird looks just like another, once it’s been plucked for the oven.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282

    In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.

    Looking over the PB archive PaddyPower paid out on Boris for Mayor in May 2008 on the day BEFORE the election.
    PaddyPower also paid out on an Obama victory in October 2008 BEFORE the November election, did that take away from the fact that Obama 50/1 previously?

    You had a good tip backing Obama at 50/1, why do yourself down by voiding that just because PaddyPower paid out early.
    You had a good tip in January 2008 recommending Boris at 1.94/1 so why do you do yourself down by denying that he was ever not the favourite? He was when you tipped him.

    Livingstone was not discredited when the 2008 Mayoral campaign began. He was the very heavy odds on favourite in fact.
This discussion has been closed.