Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Above is the chart showing the changes on the betting markets for the next general election over the past year and as can be seen a hung Parliament remains the favourite with things having not really changed that much during the conferences.
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However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
That's going to lock out a lot of people.
RCS would be the one to speak to on that, though
I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
@BritainElects
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1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (-)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-)
REFUK: 4% (-)
via @YouGov
, 05 - 06 Oct
Chgs. w/ 29 Sep
The Starmer bounce gathering pace?
Now yes, but Livingstone was not a totally discredited figure in 2008. Indeed in 2008 Livingstone was initially the strong odds-on favourite to win the election and was initially beating Boris handsomely in all the initial polls.
My first ever political bet after joining this website was on Boris winning the Mayoral Race following tips here to back him at relatively long odds.
Probably not even 25%.
I'd say 20% increased Tory majority.
20% comfortable Tory majority
35% a small Tory majority
20% Hung Parliament
5% Labour majority
Though that might be being generous to Labour.
Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.
When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.
And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?
Not really related to the economy at all if so.
FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
Due to BREXIT etc, this has been memory wiped for some people.
Livingstone was the King of London. When the Mayoral post was created, despite every attempt by Blair & Co. he walked into the role.
Boris defeated him twice. The first was a massive shock. The Guardian went into meltdown for a bit.
While some of the glaze was coming off Livingstone at the end, Livingstone actually increased his share of the vote from 36.8% to 37.0% when he lost the first time.
"It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different "
I don't think he would be. Corbyn was crushed, but at least had the satisfaction of having stuck to most of his principles with his Far Left manifesto. So he may be discredited in 90% of the country, but much of the 10% who really counts for him still follow him. Starmer has given up all his left-wing principles, which he restated as late as the Labour leadership election (He vowed to keep Labour "radical socialist tradition" in place, for instance).
So if Boris beats him convincingly, he won't even have the satisfaction of going down nobly - he'll just be a total failure. There's nothing more pathetic than an unpopular opportunist.
I'm not HYUFD and I don't always agree with HYUFD.
Shocking secret I'm sure, so don't pass it on.
A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.
Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"
Hence my 20% NOM rating - I've put a 5% chance of Labour in case such an unlikely event rebalances it so far to the extreme that Labour majority comes back into play - after all if we're talking about overturning a nominal over 100 seat majority in one bound, there's nothing preventing the swing being so dramatic a further few dozen more swinging too making Labour majority possible.
60+ chance of such a rebalancing is just implausible though. Definite lay.
I backed him when you posted about it and Livingstone at the time WAS odds on favourite. I can probably dig out an old post of yours saying so as you're the reason I backed BoJo so thank you for that it was a nice first win and got me hooked to your site.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.
And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.
I'd love the 14% on Labour to have a bit more time value of money than it currently does.
So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on
By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.
In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind
The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)
This one is 43% vs 49% (the rest being SNP + minor parties). It's always hard to predict the efficiency of the Lib Dem vote but that always reduces the actual advantage of the non-Tory vote significantly. Green, though, I reckon we can assume 5 of those 9% would go to Labour in a GE (and some of the rest to the LDs and SNP). Looks like small Tory majority land to me.
A grand down the drain because I was an early sufferer of BDS - Londoners wont elect a posho that says "balderdash and piffle" I told everyone
One reason why these committees end up spending hours on little things is because they have no say over anything big.
The UK government has never made a proper effort to implement what they signed up to and there’s very little goodwill left as the EU don’t trust them to honour any agreement that is made .
This is the guy who, at the peak of Blair's power in the Labour party, effortlessly walked through to the nomination. Despite everything the New Labour lot threw in the way.
Then cruised through the election. And the next one.
He was, for a long, long time, the Biggest Beast in London politics. There was Ken and then there were... some other people.
One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1446036266164817922
The long house price booms under Thatcher-Lawson and Blair-Brown were effectively free money for homeowners.
So yes, we have. And yes, it makes governments very popular indeed.
Governments that have to take money away from people tend to become unpopular.
Still, maybe this time it will be different.
25 January 2008 Ken is 0.7-1 according to your thread header. That's odds-on favourite is it not?
17 January 2008 "Why not be like Boris and get two for one" - Boris was 1.94-1
02 January 2008 " Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."
You did a good job spotting the value in Boris, so why do you now write it off as if Ken was never favourite? Though you didn't always:
22/11/07 "Will this make Ken's third term a certainty ... Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value."
(Although I do get a horrible feeling that the current generation of programmers bought up on Agile, will in a decade or two end up asking why they can’t do the same with software running cars, planes and factories). Grr….
I said all along if we were more willing than them to let it unravel, they'd back down.
It might be that this latest version of longterm economic plan will unravel the Tory coalition but I'm not holding my breath.
I still think the Tories should be big favourites: like the SNP they have the electoral logic of a major cultural divide in their favour (united on one side, fractured on the other), and they have the track record of winning.
Glenn Bluff
@BluffGlenn
Rail usage down due to pandemic. Donny could become a major commuter town to London, Sheffield and Leeds but we need to address ticket prices. To build back better we need cheaper tickets from Doncaster. London is 1hr 26 mins away so is doable but not at £13288 for season ticket
That's a Tory councillor in Doncaster. Does this suggest that levelling up = turn the country into London commuter belt?
You had a good tip backing Obama at 50/1, why do yourself down by voiding that just because PaddyPower paid out early.
You had a good tip in January 2008 recommending Boris at 1.94/1 so why do you do yourself down by denying that he was ever not the favourite? He was when you tipped him.
Livingstone was not discredited when the 2008 Mayoral campaign began. He was the very heavy odds on favourite in fact.