Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Above is the chart showing the changes on the betting markets for the next general election over the past year and as can be seen a hung Parliament remains the favourite with things having not really changed that much during the conferences.
Comments
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And still the best lay out there.3
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Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a clear lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=200 -
Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
1 -
IIRC You need to speak both French and German and have a 2 year local Swiss qualification to work in a restaurant or some such.SouthamObserver said:
I wonder how many Swiss people do those jobs.Malmesbury said:
As RCS has previously mentioned, an example of an economy with a higher wage structure for the "low end" jobs is Switzerland.SouthamObserver said:
People who can afford to pay higher prices - or can negotiate higher pay to mitigate them - will always end up being fine with higher prices. Those who can't will be less enthused, however they voted in the referendum.DavidL said:
I thought that Robert's contribution this morning was excellent. I also think that it is a point that both @Philip_Thompson and I have readily acknowledged. Increased wages for those who now benefit from scarcity such as HGV drivers is not cost free. It means higher costs for the rest of us in terms of goods etc. To the extent that those who have not had these increased competitive advantage are not able to increase our earnings to compensate they will be worse off. And wage inequality in our society will reduce. Which Philip and I regard as a good thing even if (being nice we do not say because) it will reduce the standard of living of professional class remainers and, indeed, myself.Selebian said:
We're in a strange paradoxical universe in which the majority viewpoints can be summarised as follows:isam said:
That last paragraph works both ways - until I did a bit of digging, on here Boris/Brexit haters were happy for people to think it was a UK only issueRochdalePioneers said:
It is slower and more expensive to move stuff around. But remember that the driver shortage isn't universal, it is in patches. On a continent that is both a single logistics network and a single employment market. Drivers and vehicles gets filled from other countries - as an example some of the "driver shortages" in places like Poland are due to them winning contracts in Germany.isam said:
What are the downsides, if any, of the driver shortage on the continent?RochdalePioneers said:
And that is why it is getting a beating. Sunny uplit futures are great when things are on the up. When things are on the down you have to first identify why that is and map your way out to the sunny places ahead.Scott_xP said:
The Tory position remains incoherent. There is no crisis. There is a crisis but its your fault. There isn't a crisis because look at Europe. There is a crisis but you can't blame Brexit. There isn't a crisis and we won't bring in workers. There is a crisis and we are bringing in workers. There are no downsides. There are downsides but actually they were the plan all along and aren't they marvellous.
If the government was not the Muppet Show, if they had an Alastair Campbell / Peter Mandleson / Dominic Cummings strategist then they would have had all this laid out. This is what we are doing, these are the issues we can mitigate, these we can't mitigate but here's how we will spin them, here's the line repeat the line until people believe it. Instead we have *this*.
Kermit the Frog.
What is a real problem is getting stuff to the UK. My clients shift refrigerated product out of Romania to places like the Netherlands without issues. To the UK? You can't shift small loads at all. You can't consolidate very easily due to caobtage and paperwork issues. I've just opened up a chilled business for them here and it took a month to plan transport.
And yet fools and outright liars try to tell people that there is no UK-only issue, that Europe has a driver shortage therefore its the same there. It isn't, they know it isn't, they hope that some people will just accept what they are told without question.
Remoaners*: Brexit is causing shortages, project fear now reality. Wage rises are however a bad thing, even for those who voted for Brexit and are more reflective of other trends than of Brexit.
Brexiteers*: Brexit is not causing shortages. There are shortages everywhere. However, despite the shortages everywhere, including in HGV drivers, increases in wages are a Brexit dividend and there are no downsides.
*Pejorative terms intentionally used. There is also a sane minority (or perhaps a silent majority? e.g. RCS, but many others) who recognise that there are many different factors at play, that wage rises are great for those receiving them but could be bad for others who will be subject to inflation but not get rises themselves as they are still open to competition from Poles in Poland/rest of the EU if not from Poles here and that the issues are a mix of factors, Covid, post-Covid demand etc...
That's going to lock out a lot of people.
RCS would be the one to speak to on that, though
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Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (-)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-)
REFUK: 4% (-)
via @YouGov
, 05 - 06 Oct
Chgs. w/ 29 Sep
The Starmer bounce gathering pace?1 -
"It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different"
Now yes, but Livingstone was not a totally discredited figure in 2008. Indeed in 2008 Livingstone was initially the strong odds-on favourite to win the election and was initially beating Boris handsomely in all the initial polls.
My first ever political bet after joining this website was on Boris winning the Mayoral Race following tips here to back him at relatively long odds.1 -
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=206 -
Hung Parliament is nothing like 40%.Selebian said:
The Labour majority or a personal boast?DavidL said:And still the best lay out there.
I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
Probably not even 25%.
I'd say 20% increased Tory majority.
20% comfortable Tory majority
35% a small Tory majority
20% Hung Parliament
5% Labour majority
Though that might be being generous to Labour.2 -
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Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.0
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NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.Selebian said:
The Labour majority or a personal boast?DavidL said:And still the best lay out there.
I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.
When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.
And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..3 -
It seems opinion is just not moving in either directionHYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a clear lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=200 -
The Cons. seem stuck on circa 40% with little suggestion of decline. I do not believe Labour on 31%. If there was an election today 40 plays 35 looks likely to me.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a clear lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=200 -
So those conferences were all well worth the money then?felix said:Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (-)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-)
REFUK: 4% (-)
via @YouGov
, 05 - 06 Oct
Chgs. w/ 29 Sep
The Starmer bounce gathering pace?3 -
The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?4 -
Is there any market where its possible to bet on an increased Tory majority?0
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The greatest frost since 1709 according to Boris yesterday.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?4 -
You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.Gallowgate said:TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.
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All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction. So the Tories number should really be considered a lot more concrete, which it seems to beSouthamObserver said:
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=201 -
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead3 -
Yes he is and good newsPhilip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?2 -
Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.noneoftheabove said:
You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.Gallowgate said:TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.
Not really related to the economy at all if so.
FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)0 -
Indeed.Philip_Thompson said:"It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different"
Now yes, but Livingstone was not a totally discredited figure in 2008. Indeed in 2008 Livingstone was initially the strong odds-on favourite to win the election and was initially beating Boris handsomely in all the initial polls.
My first ever political bet after joining this website was on Boris winning the Mayoral Race following tips here to back him at relatively long odds.
Due to BREXIT etc, this has been memory wiped for some people.
Livingstone was the King of London. When the Mayoral post was created, despite every attempt by Blair & Co. he walked into the role.
Boris defeated him twice. The first was a massive shock. The Guardian went into meltdown for a bit.
While some of the glaze was coming off Livingstone at the end, Livingstone actually increased his share of the vote from 36.8% to 37.0% when he lost the first time.2 -
A good thread, but:
"It is also true to say that that the two major Labour figures Johnson has defeated, Livingstone and Corbyn, are now totally discredited figures. Starmer might be different "
I don't think he would be. Corbyn was crushed, but at least had the satisfaction of having stuck to most of his principles with his Far Left manifesto. So he may be discredited in 90% of the country, but much of the 10% who really counts for him still follow him. Starmer has given up all his left-wing principles, which he restated as late as the Labour leadership election (He vowed to keep Labour "radical socialist tradition" in place, for instance).
So if Boris beats him convincingly, he won't even have the satisfaction of going down nobly - he'll just be a total failure. There's nothing more pathetic than an unpopular opportunist.1 -
If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.isam said:
All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.SouthamObserver said:
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20
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The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
0 -
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
If, if, maySouthamObserver said:
If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.isam said:
All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.SouthamObserver said:
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=200 -
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
0 -
40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
Indeed. Nothing is certain. Those who claim it is are just wrong.isam said:
If, if, maySouthamObserver said:
If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.isam said:
All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.SouthamObserver said:
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=20
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What's BJ's track record on not turning lovers into haters?SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead2 -
Can I let you into a little secret?Pulpstar said:
40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
I'm not HYUFD and I don't always agree with HYUFD.
Shocking secret I'm sure, so don't pass it on.1 -
Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotOSouthamObserver said:
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
No, no, no. The future is certain. Only the past (ie my predictions) keeps changing.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. Nothing is certain. Those who claim it is are just wrong.isam said:
If, if, maySouthamObserver said:
If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.isam said:
All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.SouthamObserver said:
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=201 -
Whereas in principle I agree, I am not unconvinced that the "rebalancing" of the economy couldn't "rebalance" the political equilibrium to NOM over the next two years.eek said:
NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.Selebian said:
The Labour majority or a personal boast?DavidL said:And still the best lay out there.
I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.
When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.
And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..0 -
Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
1 -
The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....Philip_Thompson said:
Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.noneoftheabove said:
You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.Gallowgate said:TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.
Not really related to the economy at all if so.
FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.
Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"2 -
Oh blimey!SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. Nothing is certain. Those who claim it is are just wrong.isam said:
If, if, maySouthamObserver said:
If voters decide the next election is about choosing a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win a sizeable majority. If they decide it is about preventing a Tory government, it may be more interesting.isam said:
All of them have Boris ahead on Gross Positives and all except Opinium on Net Satisfaction.SouthamObserver said:
All the pollsters have the Tories in a tight band of 39-41. Labour has a much wider band of 31-37.HYUFD said:Yougov this morning though still sees the Conservatives with a comfortable lead on 39% to 31% for Labour. Boris would win a comfortable majority again on those numbers.
However Yougov also has the Greens much higher than other pollsters at 9% which mainly comes at Labour's expense
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1446034709629243405?s=200 -
In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.0
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As I say, if the next GE is seen as the choice of a Tory or Labour government, the Tories will win. But as Johnson is so polarising, it could just be that voters decide the next election should be about stopping him winning again. We will see.isam said:
Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotOSouthamObserver said:
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
0 -
It is at Westminster if it wins a majority. Westminster is the supreme parliament in the UK and what Westminster decides goesPulpstar said:
40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
But not for the ScotsHYUFD said:
It is at Westminster if it wins a majority. Westminster is the supreme parliament in the UK and what Westminster decides goesPulpstar said:
40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
? 0 -
Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags3
-
It could but in my eyes I'd put the odds of that or something else causing such a swing happening at no higher than 1/4 (and I think I'm being generous with that).Mexicanpete said:
Whereas in principle I agree, I am not unconvinced that the "rebalancing" of the economy couldn't "rebalance" the political equilibrium to NOM over the next two years.eek said:
NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.Selebian said:
The Labour majority or a personal boast?DavidL said:And still the best lay out there.
I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.
When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.
And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..
Hence my 20% NOM rating - I've put a 5% chance of Labour in case such an unlikely event rebalances it so far to the extreme that Labour majority comes back into play - after all if we're talking about overturning a nominal over 100 seat majority in one bound, there's nothing preventing the swing being so dramatic a further few dozen more swinging too making Labour majority possible.
60+ chance of such a rebalancing is just implausible though. Definite lay.0 -
It will be interesting to see if that changes as the free money stops. Have we ever had a Government giving voters free money before?isam said:
Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotOSouthamObserver said:
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
For the Scots too. Westminster is the supreme parliament over Scotland, Holyrood merely a creation of Westminster to run some bits of Scottish domestic policyPulpstar said:
But not for the ScotsHYUFD said:
It is at Westminster if it wins a majority. Westminster is the supreme parliament in the UK and what Westminster decides goesPulpstar said:
40% isn't nearly enough for a mandate according to @HYUFD.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead ?0 -
It's amazing what actual negotiation can achieve, not sniveling betrayal of the national interest like May and Robbins. Expect fireworks from May about this, she won't like seeing that there was a better deal out there than what she got.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?3 -
Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead1 -
Oh really Mike? Are you sure about?MikeSmithson said:In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
I backed him when you posted about it and Livingstone at the time WAS odds on favourite. I can probably dig out an old post of yours saying so as you're the reason I backed BoJo so thank you for that it was a nice first win and got me hooked to your site.0 -
I've got to agree with them there - as you can now easily get compostable teabags you should just use them.Gallowgate said:Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.
And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.0 -
I really didn't think my opinion of her could get any lower but credit where it's due. Her performances since being removed have achieved this in spades.MaxPB said:
It's amazing what actual negotiation can achieve, not sniveling betrayal of the national interest like May and Robbins. Expect fireworks from May about this, she won't like seeing that there was a better deal out there than what she got.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?2 -
Can we have have bi-annual elections ?
I'd love the 14% on Labour to have a bit more time value of money than it currently does.0 -
I believe that the preferred term is "agile development".Malmesbury said:The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....
A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.
Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"1 -
Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for LabourSouthamObserver said:
Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on1 -
This is the same Lord Frost who negotiated the protocol in the first place?Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?2 -
Boris hatred seems to be most prevalent among younger demographics. The idea that they have had their way on anything much over recent years is for the fairies.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.
3 -
Whoops! Hope that’s a botched software upgrade, rather than a hack of their systems.Philip_Thompson said:
Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.noneoftheabove said:
You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.Gallowgate said:TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.
Not really related to the economy at all if so.
FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)0 -
Doesn’t need a committee to discuss it thougheek said:
I've got to agree with them there - as you can now easily get compostable teabags you should just use them.Gallowgate said:Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.
And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.0 -
A week before polling day Ipsos MORI had Ken on 41% first preference vs Boris on 38%MikeSmithson said:In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind
The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)0 -
The black swans are already hatching.isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
The way I make sense of these varied polls is to focus on the Tory VI + REFUK and compare with Lab/Lib/Grn. Th polls are much less far apart when you do it that way.felix said:Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (-)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-)
REFUK: 4% (-)
via @YouGov
, 05 - 06 Oct
Chgs. w/ 29 Sep
The Starmer bounce gathering pace?
This one is 43% vs 49% (the rest being SNP + minor parties). It's always hard to predict the efficiency of the Lib Dem vote but that always reduces the actual advantage of the non-Tory vote significantly. Green, though, I reckon we can assume 5 of those 9% would go to Labour in a GE (and some of the rest to the LDs and SNP). Looks like small Tory majority land to me.
1 -
Looking over the PB archive PaddyPower paid out on Boris for Mayor in May 2008 on the day BEFORE the election.MikeSmithson said:In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
0 -
I backed Ken at odds against, so Boris was definitely favMalmesbury said:
A week before polling day Ipsos MORI had Ken on 41% first preference vs Boris on 38%MikeSmithson said:In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind
The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)
A grand down the drain because I was an early sufferer of BDS - Londoners wont elect a posho that says "balderdash and piffle" I told everyone0 -
Young people are piss poor at voting.SouthamObserver said:
Boris hatred seems to be most prevalent among younger demographics. The idea that they have had their way on anything much over recent years is for the fairies.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.0 -
Lord Frost has bowed to the superior negotiating skills of Lord Frost. A masterclass.OnlyLivingBoy said:
This is the same Lord Frost who negotiated the protocol in the first place?Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?3 -
Fair point. I'm only on most seats and I'll probably stay that way, but I see the argument.eek said:
NOM - there are 2 factors most people miss.Selebian said:
The Labour majority or a personal boast?DavidL said:And still the best lay out there.
I agree on the former. Can't comment on the latter. References needed.
Farage cost Boris 10 or so seats so his majority should be 100-110 not 80.
When the boundaries are reorganised there are another 5-10 Tory gains there.
And it's hard to see how you go from a 120 or so seat majority to NOM..1 -
Yep, I find it bizarre that the Tories are not big favourites. As you say, they should be.isam said:
Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for LabourSouthamObserver said:
Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on
0 -
Oooh!!Mexicanpete said:
The black swans are already hatching.isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
The Tories won their majority by taking seats off their erstwhile coalition partners, rather than from Labour.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?1 -
That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.Mexicanpete said:
The black swans are already hatching.isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead1 -
Absolutely. And the old are not. Another reason why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE.Pulpstar said:
Young people are piss poor at voting.SouthamObserver said:
Boris hatred seems to be most prevalent among younger demographics. The idea that they have had their way on anything much over recent years is for the fairies.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Haha. Boris haters are mostly Labour supporters, who haven't won an election in 16 years. We are more than accustomed to not getting our own way, believe me!isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
By contrast, he is most popular among older demographics who have pretty much done best out of the last decade.
0 -
It's a law firm in central Newcastle. Exactly how many Eco things relating to the firm is there to actually deal with.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t need a committee to discuss it thougheek said:
I've got to agree with them there - as you can now easily get compostable teabags you should just use them.Gallowgate said:Signed up to be on the environment committee at my firm and christ, people are arguing about important issues such as compostable f*cking teabags
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50260687 has an overview and Yorkshire Tea is now plastic free.
And it's an easy way to win a few eco points.
One reason why these committees end up spending hours on little things is because they have no say over anything big.2 -
Is Boris @ydoethur 's less competent, but more cunning older brother ?DavidL said:
The greatest frost since 1709 according to Boris yesterday.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?0 -
Oh yes, industrial IT is always a bodged-together mess of hardware and software - and once your operation is up and running, you’ll never be allowed sufficient downtime to be able to upgrade everything in one go!Malmesbury said:
The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....Philip_Thompson said:
Sounds like a software issue that has crashed Fedex TNT's depot. A bit like Facebook going offline earlier this week.noneoftheabove said:
You have this the wrong way around. Our economy creaking means we all get loadsamoney. Just wait for the sunny uplands to arrive.Gallowgate said:TNT and Fedex have suspended all domestic courier services apparently. Going to cause problems.
Not really related to the economy at all if so.
FedEx and TNT aren’t saying what’s going on, but we’ve heard a rumour that there was a failure yesterday of some kind with their sortation equipment or software at their Marston Gate hub. Without access to this it will be nigh on impossible for them tip truck loads of parcels which would normally zip along conveyors for machine sorting to trucks to take on to delivery depots. If the sortation equipment is out of order then each individual parcel would have to be sorted by hand and that’s a mammoth task just for the parcels already at or on the way to the depot. It’s no surprise if the rumours are true that they’ve had to suspend collections.
https://tamebay.com/2021/10/fedex-tnt-suspend-domestic-uk-shipments.html (first thing that came up for me on Google so no idea its authenticity)
A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.
Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"0 -
Hopefully some agreement can be reached on NI but the EU won’t propose changes that fundamentally change the protocol.
The UK government has never made a proper effort to implement what they signed up to and there’s very little goodwill left as the EU don’t trust them to honour any agreement that is made .0 -
A lot of people couldn't believe that King Livingstone could be dethroned.isam said:
I backed Ken at odds against, so Boris was definitely favMalmesbury said:
A week before polling day Ipsos MORI had Ken on 41% first preference vs Boris on 38%MikeSmithson said:In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
In general Boris seemed to lead the campaign, but Ken was close(ish) behind
The polling was interesting with alot of volatility around Ken's share - 44% in one poll, 35% in the next (by different providers)
A grand down the drain because I was an early sufferer of BDS - Londoners wont elect a posho that says "balderdash and piffle" I told everyone
This is the guy who, at the peak of Blair's power in the Labour party, effortlessly walked through to the nomination. Despite everything the New Labour lot threw in the way.
Then cruised through the election. And the next one.
He was, for a long, long time, the Biggest Beast in London politics. There was Ken and then there were... some other people.0 -
What is going on in Poland ?
One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/14460362661648179221 -
Right to Buy was effectively free money for council house tenants.Mexicanpete said:
It will be interesting to see if that changes as the free money stops. Have we ever had a Government giving voters free money before?isam said:
Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotOSouthamObserver said:
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
The long house price booms under Thatcher-Lawson and Blair-Brown were effectively free money for homeowners.
So yes, we have. And yes, it makes governments very popular indeed.
Governments that have to take money away from people tend to become unpopular.
Still, maybe this time it will be different.2 -
@MikeSmithson
25 January 2008 Ken is 0.7-1 according to your thread header. That's odds-on favourite is it not?
17 January 2008 "Why not be like Boris and get two for one" - Boris was 1.94-1
02 January 2008 " Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."
You did a good job spotting the value in Boris, so why do you now write it off as if Ken was never favourite? Though you didn't always:
22/11/07 "Will this make Ken's third term a certainty ... Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value."
1 -
Something that should never be allowed to sneak its way down, to anything more important that a social media site.glw said:
I believe that the preferred term is "agile development".Malmesbury said:The number of these companies with a pile of shite software all in little bits, barely talking to the other bits....
A chap know worked at Amazon in IT on the warehouse end of things - it's a long way from the smooth operation they'd have you believe.
Another worked at Deliveroo. Chimps flinging poo at the wall was the metaphor used to describe the "systems"
(Although I do get a horrible feeling that the current generation of programmers bought up on Agile, will in a decade or two end up asking why they can’t do the same with software running cars, planes and factories). Grr….0 -
So what you're saying is that we hold all the cards?Mexicanpete said:
No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?
I said all along if we were more willing than them to let it unravel, they'd back down.2 -
Economy not exactly doing great now (and hasn't been since pre financial crisis frankly). Tories still seem to win.Mexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
It might be that this latest version of longterm economic plan will unravel the Tory coalition but I'm not holding my breath.0 -
Indeed, plenty of black swans for Christmas lunch.DavidL said:
That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.Mexicanpete said:
The black swans are already hatching.isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
Yes. A bet on Boris looks good at this stage, but bear in mind it's a bet against Events happening in the next two years and the thing is, since 2016 Events have happened thick and fast. Think back to summer 2013 or 14 was it, when PB went quiet for half hours on end, and Plato would pop up and post *tumbleweed*, or the site would discuss vegetable growing for thread after thread. I am not betting that the age of Events is now behind us.isam said:
Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotOSouthamObserver said:
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead2 -
A good friend of mine might have had a turkey which might have proven to be a swan obtained from a slightly dodgy source who subsequently got into some difficulties with the law last year. His mother said it was the best turkey she'd ever eaten!Mexicanpete said:
Indeed, plenty of black swans for Christmas lunch.DavidL said:
That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.Mexicanpete said:
The black swans are already hatching.isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
Indeed. So no one is saying it is certain, betting doesn't work like that. There just seems to be a n overstatement in the market of the likelyhood of a hung parliament. I reckon thats too many people feeding current polls into Electoral Calculus and saying "If this were repeated in a GE...", rather than considering the ebbs and flows of the electoral cycle, and the other polls such as leader satisfaction and personalitySouthamObserver said:
Yep, I find it bizarre that the Tories are not big favourites. As you say, they should be.isam said:
Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for LabourSouthamObserver said:
Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on
0 -
That's an upgrade (downgrade?) from the Spanish methodology - at least there, you got the airport.Nigelb said:What is going on in Poland ?
One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/14460362661648179220 -
They did that one much better in Berlin. At least it looked a little like an airport from the outside, even if it didn’t work as one!Nigelb said:What is going on in Poland ?
One of many, many such scandals in Poland: The ruling party has employed hundreds of people, mostly ex-politicians and their friends, to build an unnecessary airport. There is nothing there but grass. They earn hefty salaries anyway.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/14460362661648179223 -
Yeah, they demonstrated their deep understanding of, and commitment to, Northern Ireland when they tried to exercise Article 16 on a stroppy whim. Titans.Mexicanpete said:
No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?5 -
It's tantamount to a bet on whether the UK economy and household finances will be better in 2 years' time, or worse. Suggests punters are expecting worse to come, rather than this being the nadir.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I find it bizarre that the Tories are not big favourites. As you say, they should be.isam said:
Yes, they should. But they aren't - NOM is. And that's why I post these ratings and graphs all the time - in mid term, with an 80 seat majority, ahead in the polls, with a leader that consistently beats the LotO on ratings, it is almost unthinkable for the Govt to lose so many seats as to lose their majority. Labour have performed worse in every English by election since Sir Keir took over than they ever had in that constituency before. Every indicator is good for the Tories and bad for LabourSouthamObserver said:
Yep, that is why the Tories should be favourites to win the next GE. However, as Theresa May showed in 2017, 40% of the vote does not guarantee a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
The problem you have is the lovers exceed 40% and that's not the case for any other party.SouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead
So CON MAJ is a great bet at 11/8-6/4, should be well odds on
I still think the Tories should be big favourites: like the SNP they have the electoral logic of a major cultural divide in their favour (united on one side, fractured on the other), and they have the track record of winning.1 -
The EU is dealing with a government that doesn’t care if NI implodes as long as they can deflect the blame onto the EU . The EU genuinely cares for the peace process and realizes that it’s dealing with a clown in no 10 so needs to be the adult in the room.Philip_Thompson said:
So what you're saying is that we hold all the cards?Mexicanpete said:
No. The EU are just more conscious of how easily NI could unravel than either Frost or Johnson are. That is something the EU are keen to avoid.Philip_Thompson said:The EU have said they'll renegotiate the NI Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58826305 😂
Lord Frost really is very good at his job, isn't he?
I said all along if we were more willing than them to let it unravel, they'd back down.
1 -
https://twitter.com/BluffGlenn/status/1443851625198718978
Glenn Bluff
@BluffGlenn
Rail usage down due to pandemic. Donny could become a major commuter town to London, Sheffield and Leeds but we need to address ticket prices. To build back better we need cheaper tickets from Doncaster. London is 1hr 26 mins away so is doable but not at £13288 for season ticket
That's a Tory councillor in Doncaster. Does this suggest that levelling up = turn the country into London commuter belt?0 -
Yes, of course there is a bet against events happening in the next two years. That is why the price on the Tories is 11/8ish, because the market, in my opinion, seems to have overstated the chance of things blowing up in the Tories faces. They should have blown up by now with all thats gone on since the start of 2020IshmaelZ said:
Yes. A bet on Boris looks good at this stage, but bear in mind it's a bet against Events happening in the next two years and the thing is, since 2016 Events have happened thick and fast. Think back to summer 2013 or 14 was it, when PB went quiet for half hours on end, and Plato would pop up and post *tumbleweed*, or the site would discuss vegetable growing for thread after thread. I am not betting that the age of Events is now behind us.isam said:
Only Blair was rated better at this stage of his premiership than Boris is currently, and only Jezza, Foot and IDS were rated worse than Sir Keir at this stage of his role as LotOSouthamObserver said:
Could be. Or it could be that BJ is a hugely divisive figure.isam said:
They're just louder because they haven't got their own way for onceSouthamObserver said:
The haters outnumber the lovers, don't they?isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
Ha, I guess one big bird looks just like another, once it’s been plucked for the oven.DavidL said:
A good friend of mine might have had a turkey which might have proven to be a swan obtained from a slightly dodgy source who subsequently got into some difficulties with the law last year. His mother said it was the best turkey she'd ever eaten!Mexicanpete said:
Indeed, plenty of black swans for Christmas lunch.DavidL said:
That's the Christmas turkeys which are going to be in plentiful supply.Mexicanpete said:
The black swans are already hatching.isam said:
If, maybes, black swans, & "this time it will be different" is all the haters haveMexicanpete said:
Mid term means jack- shit if Johnson loses control of the economy over the next two years, which seems highly plausible to me.isam said:Miliband was beating Cameron on Both Net Satisfaction & Gross Positives, whilst Labour led on VI mid term. The Tories went from coalition partners to outright majority at the following GE.
And PB said NOM was buying money at odds on
Dark Blue Cam GP lead
Light Blue Cam Net Sat lead
Red Con VI lead0 -
PaddyPower also paid out on an Obama victory in October 2008 BEFORE the November election, did that take away from the fact that Obama 50/1 previously?MikeSmithson said:
Looking over the PB archive PaddyPower paid out on Boris for Mayor in May 2008 on the day BEFORE the election.MikeSmithson said:In 2008 Livingstone was NOT odds on favourite to beat BoJo for the mayoralty.
You had a good tip backing Obama at 50/1, why do yourself down by voiding that just because PaddyPower paid out early.
You had a good tip in January 2008 recommending Boris at 1.94/1 so why do you do yourself down by denying that he was ever not the favourite? He was when you tipped him.
Livingstone was not discredited when the 2008 Mayoral campaign began. He was the very heavy odds on favourite in fact.0
