Stand by for a big announcement at 10pm – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I haven’t bothered to look, but I can’t believe Morrison was as much as 10 down on 2pp and still won as he is now this close to the election. It’s actually the red line still with the upward trajectory. Things really have turned against Morrison this time, almost from the start really, with disbelief he got back in, the mess he made of the fires, and the same factors that undermined Labour last time, bad records in state government don’t apply this time either.HYUFD said:
Every poll in the 2019 Australian election had Labor ahead on 2PP before polling day, however Morrison still led Shorten as preferred PM.gealbhan said:
Despite so far behind in the pp2, yet you calling it for that man from down under already 😆HYUFD said:
They aren't, Morrison still leads Albanese as preferred PM and as the last election showed in Australia who is preferred PM is a better indicator than headline voting intentiongealbhan said:
Dura Ace might be right, let’s wait to see what the Aussie greens and Aussie Labour say, because they are going to be in power in about six months.Leon said:
Yes. it will. This is a commitment by the entire Aussie Establishment. Is my bet. They are fucking scared of ChinaDura_Ace said:
The RAN nuclear subs idea will also not survive an Australian Labor or Labor/Green government.TheScreamingEagles said:This new UK/US/Oz alliance.
Whilst I'm delighted by this and I hope more countries join am I the only worried that when Trump or some other Trump clone wins the White House in 2024 or some other date they end up ripping us this deal/agreement?
Will this announcement make it more difficult for that man to win the coming election? 🤔
Morrison's Coalition won the election.
I would imagine this announcement will boost him a bit as strong on national security, plus as more Australians continue to get vaccinated, helped by vaccines from us, their lockdown will ease and he will get a further boost
Proper betting discussion this one. 🙂0 -
To be more serious yet also more cynical, the EDU is a Gallic scheme to spend billions of German Euros in French arms factories.RobD said:
By Jove, he's got it! More Europe!MattW said:Today was the day Ursula VDL talked about her new European Defence Union in here "State of the Union 2021" speech.
France is spitting feathers partly because this is one centrepiece of their Presidency of the EU in 2022 from Jan 1st. Plus the Oz PM didn't aiui manage to get through to Mons. Macaron on the phone.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_21_4701
Extract:
Europe can – and clearly should – be able and willing to do more on its own. But if we are to do more, we first need to explain why. I see three broad categories.
First, we need to provide stability in our neighbourhood and across different regions.
We are connected to the world by narrow straits, stormy seas and vast land borders. Because of that geography, Europe knows better than anyone that if you don't deal in time with the crisis abroad, the crisis comes to you.
Secondly, the nature of the threats we face is evolving rapidly: from hybrid or cyber-attacks to the growing arms race in space.
Disruptive technology has been a great equaliser in the way power can be used today by rogue states or non-state groups.
You no longer need armies and missiles to cause mass damage. You can paralyse industrial plants, city administrations and hospitals – all you need is your laptop. You can disrupt entire elections with a smartphone and an internet connection.
The third reason is that the European Union is a unique security provider. There will be missions where NATO or the UN will not be present, but where the EU should be.
On the ground, our soldiers work side-by-side with police officers, lawyers and doctors, with humanitarian workers and human rights defenders, with teachers and engineers.
We can combine military and civilian, along with diplomacy and development – and we have a long history in building and protecting peace.
The good news is that over the past years, we have started to develop a European defence ecosystem.
But what we need is the European Defence Union.
...
This is why, under the French Presidency, President Macron and I will convene a Summit on European defence.
It is time for Europe to step up to the next level.2 -
I'm trying to keep across the Italian politica interna and get more of the gist of the top ongoing stories ahead of any GE there.Casino_Royale said:
As much as it amuses me to hear this I would rather the French were in it, because we probably do need them.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
The trouble is: I don't trust them. Not sure the Americans or Australians do too.
They need to divorce their FDSP away from the EU if they want to play.
Today's emphasis was for one more big push on common EU foreign, defence and security, and Italian ministers primarily engaging France on that. Perhaps to go to a new German government with a common understanding, but also perhaps with one eye on our announcement.0 -
One further note.
The difference in price between 12 of the US and UK Hunter-Killer subs seems to the right sort of sum - £6bn - to buy two aircraft carriers.
How curious.
(Unlikely: would put Uncle Sam's nose out of joint, and make Oz very dependant on BAE.)0 -
The US have been at war with the EU and Airbus for ages v Boeingkle4 said:
The Americans were very mad about the French not joining in the Iraqi adventure?MattW said:
It's quite interesting why France thinks the *USA* have stabbed them in the back - apart from taking a contract away. Since in was an Oz decision.Leon said:
hahahahahahwilliamglenn said:@benjaminhaddad
A stunning stab in the back of a key European ally involved in the Indo-Pacific. Everyone in Paris is shell shocked. The lowest point in US-France relations since 2003 (with probably deeper consequences), and a major setback to a transatlantic strategy on China.
https://twitter.com/benjaminhaddad/status/1438262378865565705
oh sorry
Not that's bad
What happened in 2003 ?0 -
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor1 -
You also think aliens are a big deal.Leon said:CNN thinks this is a really big deal. I think it's a big deal
https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1438256932746375171?s=200 -
GWB wanted them in ( note that the preferences of the other eyes meant nothing) but Sarkozy said no.Philip_Thompson said:
The French have only ever been half-engaged with NATO at the best of times.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
There's a reason they were never a part of Five Eyes and its not because they aren't English-speaking.1 -
Biden's not stupid - I never really understood the idea his affinity for Ireland would be bad news for the UK. He'd act toward the UK on its merits of benefiting the USA.Philip_Thompson said:
Nah bollocks.HYUFD said:
Of course he is interested in Ireland, hence he made clear that under no circumstances whatsoever would he tolerate a hard border in Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
Biden's not that interested in Ireland.HYUFD said:
Trump even went to Bastille Day and praised Macron's military display. Biden is not that interested in Europe other than Ireland, his focus is containing ChinaMrEd said:
How long before Macron says “I wish Trump was still President”?Leon said:
hahahahahahwilliamglenn said:@benjaminhaddad
A stunning stab in the back of a key European ally involved in the Indo-Pacific. Everyone in Paris is shell shocked. The lowest point in US-France relations since 2003 (with probably deeper consequences), and a major setback to a transatlantic strategy on China.
https://twitter.com/benjaminhaddad/status/1438262378865565705
oh sorry
Not that's bad
He's done far more with our PM than he has with the Taoiseach and that will continue despite rumblings to the contrary because the UK is actually useful when it comes to containing China and to be frank Dublin is not.
Biden's got far more serious concerns on his plate than dealing with Ireland right now.
Just because he wants to use us to help contain China does not mean he will not always be more loyal to his Irish roots than to us over the Irish border
That's been quoted by many Remain voters like yourself since before Biden was elected but that's projectionism.
Look at what Biden has actually done as President. He's frequently working closely with the PM, because the US and UK are strategic allies and Biden and Boris despite their opponent's criticism are both professional enough to understand that completely.
What has Biden actually done as President with regards to Ireland? A big fat nothing as far as I can see.2 -
I think you will find that the Taiwanese looked at Hong Kong and pretty much worked out where its at with China and they are increasingly of the view thats not where they want to be. The Pan Blue movement has some vague talk of reunification but it doesnt generally recognise the communist government of China as what it intends to unify with. De facto, therefore, the idea of unification with Communist China is not something has strong enough support to get anywhere.gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.
Taiwan per head is richer than China, more prosperous and more free, what do they need to unify with China to get rich for? They can do it quite happily without unification and the more aggressive the Chinese get the more the Tainwanese will set their face against it.
3 -
What’s your take on the Silk Road the Chinese are building in our direction? Where excitement is about facing them militarily, are we missing something? How concerned should we be about That Road?rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.0 -
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?dixiedean said:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-experiencing-surge-pro-independence-sentiment-180923gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.0 -
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor1 -
Brilliant!isam said:
That’s a great rendition of a classic - the lead guitar is brilliantwilliamglenn said:In other news, Rick Astley is now a Morrissey tribute act.
https://twitter.com/FarOutMag/status/14375552381651722320 -
Taiwanese self identification.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/pg_2020-05-12_taiwan_0-11/1 -
Yes; ultimately, the democracies of the EU have far more in common with Australia, the US, and the UK than they do with China or Russia.Leon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
I think there are two key reasons they weren't included in this:
(1) I think there is signalling here that, if you want to be a member, you need to pay your share. This is why Canada hasn't been involved to date, and it's why Germany was ineligible to join either.
(2) They (the US in particular) want this to be something that they set the rules on (as happened with NATO), and you can join or not join. If France had been involved from the start, they would have balked at deferring to the US, and it would have taken years.
Other countries, so long as they're willing to meet commitments, will be joining in time. And yes, this is probably the death knell for NATO. But I fully expect Canada and Norway will be members before long, and that they will be followed by France, Germany, Italy, and the like.
Some countries - like Turkey - will never be invited to join the new grouping.0 -
Is that how the article reads to you?kle4 said:
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?dixiedean said:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-experiencing-surge-pro-independence-sentiment-180923gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.0 -
They areMexicanpete said:
You also think aliens are a big deal.Leon said:CNN thinks this is a really big deal. I think it's a big deal
https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1438256932746375171?s=201 -
The RAN have a recruitment (but not retention, the opposite of the RN) problem. They are always looking for the most effective defence effects with least number of people. That's not carriers...MattW said:One further note.
The difference in price between 12 of the US and UK Hunter-Killer subs seems to the right sort of sum - £6bn - to buy two aircraft carriers.
How curious.
(Unlikely: would put Uncle Sam's nose out of joint, and make Oz very dependant on BAE.)1 -
I think the biggest shock for the EU has been how uninterested the US is in the EU now that we're not in it. They expected it to be the other way around with the US putting their relationship with the UK in the backseat and the French are incredibly bitter about it.Leon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
The next German chancellor is going to be an pacifist whichever party wins. They will be an unreliable military ally for the foreseeable future. They will be as mercantile as they have ever been, talking about global this and open that while selling out western technology to China for dollars today.4 -
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.3 -
He briefed the key opposition figures earlier.HYUFD said:
They aren't, Morrison still leads Albanese as preferred PM and as the last election showed in Australia who is preferred PM is a better indicator than headline voting intentiongealbhan said:
Dura Ace might be right, let’s wait to see what the Aussie greens and Aussie Labour say, because they are going to be in power in about six months.Leon said:
Yes. it will. This is a commitment by the entire Aussie Establishment. Is my bet. They are fucking scared of ChinaDura_Ace said:
The RAN nuclear subs idea will also not survive an Australian Labor or Labor/Green government.TheScreamingEagles said:This new UK/US/Oz alliance.
Whilst I'm delighted by this and I hope more countries join am I the only worried that when Trump or some other Trump clone wins the White House in 2024 or some other date they end up ripping us this deal/agreement?
Whether that will make it stick ...0 -
There is no new fracture, it was already there but the basic security and defence relationships will continue. The French go their own way plenty and post war history tells you that. Sometimes they want in, sometimes they dont.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
Thre reality is though that the likes of the US know rightly that the major European nations are too inconsistent (France) or too plain flaky (Germany) to bring into the centre circle.
1 -
66% of Taiwanese do not identity as Chinese at all then.dixiedean said:Taiwanese self identification.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/pg_2020-05-12_taiwan_0-11/
However that divides on political lines, 92% of governing DMT supporters identify as Taiwanese only, 53% of opposition KMT supporters identify as Taiwanese and Chinese0 -
The UK should now expect much of the EU to become even more blatantly hostile. Not even casual friends, just neighbours that glare over the hedge
In eastern Europe and Scandi they might like to be friendlier, but core western Europe will see us as near-enemies, certainly rivals
So be it.
I wonder where this leaves Scottish Nationalism (a bit screwed, foreign policywise?) but also, in the end, Ireland.0 -
I am reading it now. That's why I put it as a question mark beforehand, as a potential guess.gealbhan said:
Is that how the article reads to you?kle4 said:
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?dixiedean said:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-experiencing-surge-pro-independence-sentiment-180923gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.0 -
Longer article with loads of polling from which the above was taken.dixiedean said:Taiwanese self identification.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/pg_2020-05-12_taiwan_0-11/
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/0 -
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.0 -
From the link in the comment he replied to.Farooq said:
Nice work there, however did you get this info?HYUFD said:
66% of Taiwanese do not identity as Chinese at all then.dixiedean said:Taiwanese self identification.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/pg_2020-05-12_taiwan_0-11/
However that divides on political lines, 92% of governing DMT supporters identify as Taiwanese only, 53% of opposition KMT supporters identify as Taiwanese and Chinese
You got a couple of facts wrong, like the names and numbers, but incredible work. Your information finding skills are astounding.1 -
It is reality, China is over the other side of the world from us. If anyone is going to invade mainland Europe and then us it will be Putin not Xi. The main buttress against Putin is the European nations that make up NATO.Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
The main buttress against China however will be its neighbours in South Asia and Oceania and the Far East ie Japan, South Korea, India and Australia.
Yes we can share intelligence etc but it is the powers of Asia and Australia who need to lead on naval patrols in the South China Sea, not us, hence supplying Australia with nuclear submarines0 -
Honestly, it never rains but it pours. I must have murdered a gazillion people in a previous life to get the sort of karma we're having lately.
At A&E. Husband swallowed something at dinner which has choked him, stuck in his throat and cannot be dislodged. 111 sent us here.
It is now raining and the dog is farting in the car. Furness Hospital car park on a wet Wednesday night is .... well ..... not the most thrilling place to be.
Dinner was chicken in a creamy leek and walnut sauce on a bed of rice, with steamed broccoli. In case you were wondering.
It may be a long night......2 -
The SMH seems impressed:
The ambitious AUKUS alliance is being hailed as Australia’s most significant strategic move in decades.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/australia-us-and-britain-unveil-new-aukus-defence-pact-to-counter-china-20210915-p58rzz.html1 -
I think an interesting addendum here is Russia’s attitude to China. The former is well aware that the latter covets its Siberian lands, and its mineral resources, and that Russian demographic trends make it not impossible that China effectively absorbs the Russian Far East over time. There have been signs Russia and India are getting closer, which undoubtedly is a signal to China.rcs1000 said:
Yes; ultimately, the democracies of the EU have far more in common with Australia, the US, and the UK than they do with China or Russia.Leon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
I think there are two key reasons they weren't included in this:
(1) I think there is signalling here that, if you want to be a member, you need to pay your share. This is why Canada hasn't been involved to date, and it's why Germany was ineligible to join either.
(2) They (the US in particular) want this to be something that they set the rules on (as happened with NATO), and you can join or not join. If France had been involved from the start, they would have balked at deferring to the US, and it would have taken years.
Other countries, so long as they're willing to meet commitments, will be joining in time. And yes, this is probably the death knell for NATO. But I fully expect Canada and Norway will be members before long, and that they will be followed by France, Germany, Italy, and the like.
Some countries - like Turkey - will never be invited to join the new grouping.0 -
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends0 -
Agreed, I think this will expand into the new NATO. We need it to do so, to have the best chance of some kind of Cold War balance with China, and no actual war. Detente for the 21st century. MAD plus free tradercs1000 said:
Yes; ultimately, the democracies of the EU have far more in common with Australia, the US, and the UK than they do with China or Russia.Leon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
I think there are two key reasons they weren't included in this:
(1) I think there is signalling here that, if you want to be a member, you need to pay your share. This is why Canada hasn't been involved to date, and it's why Germany was ineligible to join either.
(2) They (the US in particular) want this to be something that they set the rules on (as happened with NATO), and you can join or not join. If France had been involved from the start, they would have balked at deferring to the US, and it would have taken years.
Other countries, so long as they're willing to meet commitments, will be joining in time. And yes, this is probably the death knell for NATO. But I fully expect Canada and Norway will be members before long, and that they will be followed by France, Germany, Italy, and the like.
Some countries - like Turkey - will never be invited to join the new grouping.
That means opening AUKUS up to willing European nations, over time. NATO is dead. It was designed to contain the USSR and it did that very well, but the world has changed, This is NATO 2.0, focused on the Indo-Pacific. France should be integral but it needs to accept the new reality
I don't think there will ever be a serious EU Defence force where Spaniards will die for Bulgarians or Greeks for Belgians or even Germans for Irish. It is too incoherent and the various emotions too fissile0 -
Best of wishes @Cyclefree and hope all turns out okCyclefree said:Honestly, it never rains but it pours. I must have murdered a gazillion people in a previous life to get the sort of karma we're having lately.
At A&E. Husband swallowed something at dinner which has choked him, stuck in his throat and cannot be dislodged. 111 sent us here.
It is now raining and the dog is farting in the car. Furness Hospital car park on a wet Wednesday night is .... well ..... not the most thrilling place to be.
Dinner was chicken in a creamy leek and walnut sauce on a bed of rice, with steamed broccoli. In case you were wondering.
It may be a long night......5 -
Yes. Just ask @TOPPING ...MrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
But seriously, he takes the party line now because for him the party always comes first, but he still uses the same Remain arguments he used when he voted Remain.1 -
NZ has been a bit too susceptible to Chinese bullying of late to be entirely reliable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nor Franceping said:No Canada & NZ
Interesting2 -
His williamglenn path was early.MrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.1 -
Lots of people here quote text from pages they or others link to, it isn't anything special.Farooq said:
See, amazing. Nobody else would have thought that. He clicked the link, and copied an approximation of what was in that page! Brilliant!RobD said:
From the link in the comment he replied to.Farooq said:
Nice work there, however did you get this info?HYUFD said:
66% of Taiwanese do not identity as Chinese at all then.dixiedean said:Taiwanese self identification.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/pg_2020-05-12_taiwan_0-11/
However that divides on political lines, 92% of governing DMT supporters identify as Taiwanese only, 53% of opposition KMT supporters identify as Taiwanese and Chinese
You got a couple of facts wrong, like the names and numbers, but incredible work. Your information finding skills are astounding.0 -
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends0 -
Oh dear. Sorry to hear that. Hope all turns out OK.Cyclefree said:Honestly, it never rains but it pours. I must have murdered a gazillion people in a previous life to get the sort of karma we're having lately.
At A&E. Husband swallowed something at dinner which has choked him, stuck in his throat and cannot be dislodged. 111 sent us here.
It is now raining and the dog is farting in the car. Furness Hospital car park on a wet Wednesday night is .... well ..... not the most thrilling place to be.
Dinner was chicken in a creamy leek and walnut sauce on a bed of rice, with steamed broccoli. In case you were wondering.
It may be a long night......
I'm thinking the walnut could be the culprit...0 -
Well, we can't say that's not true.HYUFD said:
China is over the other side of the world from us.Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
1 -
I do find Kevin Maguire and Andrew Pierce hilarious when they present the press preview on Sky.
But tomorrow its being presented by Anna Soubry and Ian Dunt. How is that supposed to be balanced? #KMN I would not be watching that.2 -
'
Wrong tense.MrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.0 -
NATO is not dead, Putin is still almost as big a danger as Xi globally and for we in Europe who are far closer to Russia than China Putin is more of a threat than Xi. We have to focus on containing Putin.Leon said:
Agreed, I think this will expand into the new NATO. We need it to do so, to have the best chance of some kind of Cold War balance with China, and no actual war. Detente for the 21st century. MAD plus free tradercs1000 said:
Yes; ultimately, the democracies of the EU have far more in common with Australia, the US, and the UK than they do with China or Russia.Leon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
I think there are two key reasons they weren't included in this:
(1) I think there is signalling here that, if you want to be a member, you need to pay your share. This is why Canada hasn't been involved to date, and it's why Germany was ineligible to join either.
(2) They (the US in particular) want this to be something that they set the rules on (as happened with NATO), and you can join or not join. If France had been involved from the start, they would have balked at deferring to the US, and it would have taken years.
Other countries, so long as they're willing to meet commitments, will be joining in time. And yes, this is probably the death knell for NATO. But I fully expect Canada and Norway will be members before long, and that they will be followed by France, Germany, Italy, and the like.
Some countries - like Turkey - will never be invited to join the new grouping.
That means opening AUKUS up to willing European nations, over time. NATO is dead. It was designed to contain the USSR and it did that very well, but the world has changed, This is NATO 2.0, focused on the Indo-Pacific. France should be integral but it needs to accept the new reality
I don't think there will ever be a serious EU Defence force where Spaniards will die for Bulgarians or Greeks for Belgians or even Germans for Irish. It is too incoherent and the various emotions too fissile
Yes a new western alliance is needed in Asia to contain China, made up of Australia, Japan, S Korea and India but while we can support that we will not lead it.
The US as the only western superpower still can still provide a leadership role for both
0 -
@HYUFD would do well in China I suspectPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes. Just ask @TOPPING ...MrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
But seriously, he takes the party line now because for him the party always comes first, but he still uses the same Remain arguments he used when he voted Remain.
(Only joking HYFUD - you get a lot of flak on here but you stick up for what you believe in which I admire)1 -
The greater the competence of politician from minority group X, the less attention is paid to that politician's membership of minority group X.Foxy said:
Yes, it is like when Blunkett was the first Home Secretary with a major disability*, fairly unremarked other than to consider his politics and abilities.glw said:
The best thing about it is that's it's not even really an issue, and there's little comment about it, or point-scoring. We actually have a government that if anything is over-representative of ethnic minorities*, but nobody cares, because nobody thinks that the appointments are down to ethnicity. The appointments are political favours and intended to thwart rivals or bolster allies, as it has always been done, and skin colour doesn't come into it.rottenborough said:
Annoyingly good point.DavidL said:The level of multiculturalism in this Cabinet is way beyond anything we have ever seen. Chancellor, Home Sec, Health Sec, Business Sec, Education Sec. Its really remarkable but people still witter on about newspaper articles decades ago. Labour front bench is incredibly white by comparison.
* I've not done a head count but it's a hunch, ignore all this if I'm wrong.
* no doubt @ydoethur will pop up to say that Sir Archibald Snot in 1826 was...0 -
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.1 -
In security terms, NZ political and government system is considered heavily penetrated by PRC but the other more prosaic factors are more important. They have limited military capability, even in regional terms, and little interest in improving that capability directly.Cyclefree said:
NZ has been a bit too susceptible to Chinese bullying of late to be entirely reliable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nor Franceping said:No Canada & NZ
Interesting0 -
I must be imagining this new alliance.
I could have sworn that nobody would want to have anything to do with us once we left the EU, especially when we reneged on that Northern Ireland deal and Boris prorogued Parliament.
I'll wake up tomorrow and we'll still be isolated.3 -
I think if the EU got itself sorted out into a coherent organisation we would all like it, surely?kle4 said:
Sometimes it might be the answer, if they have certain ambitions. It's just not the answer to every single little thing, which is just annoying.RobD said:
By Jove, he's got it! More Europe!MattW said:Today was the day Ursula VDL talked about her new European Defence Union in here "State of the Union 2021" speech.
France is spitting feathers partly because this is one centrepiece of their Presidency of the EU in 2022 from Jan 1st. Plus the Oz PM didn't aiui manage to get through to Mons. Macaron on the phone.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_21_4701
Extract:
Europe can – and clearly should – be able and willing to do more on its own. But if we are to do more, we first need to explain why. I see three broad categories.
First, we need to provide stability in our neighbourhood and across different regions.
We are connected to the world by narrow straits, stormy seas and vast land borders. Because of that geography, Europe knows better than anyone that if you don't deal in time with the crisis abroad, the crisis comes to you.
Secondly, the nature of the threats we face is evolving rapidly: from hybrid or cyber-attacks to the growing arms race in space.
Disruptive technology has been a great equaliser in the way power can be used today by rogue states or non-state groups.
You no longer need armies and missiles to cause mass damage. You can paralyse industrial plants, city administrations and hospitals – all you need is your laptop. You can disrupt entire elections with a smartphone and an internet connection.
The third reason is that the European Union is a unique security provider. There will be missions where NATO or the UN will not be present, but where the EU should be.
On the ground, our soldiers work side-by-side with police officers, lawyers and doctors, with humanitarian workers and human rights defenders, with teachers and engineers.
We can combine military and civilian, along with diplomacy and development – and we have a long history in building and protecting peace.
The good news is that over the past years, we have started to develop a European defence ecosystem.
But what we need is the European Defence Union.
...
This is why, under the French Presidency, President Macron and I will convene a Summit on European defence.
It is time for Europe to step up to the next level.
It is still the case that the European leg of NATO including us have been leaning on the US since the 1960s. (?)
But Germany has landed them in a hole wrt Russia, and Brussels is on a low level political civil war with the Eastern countries - Poland, Hungary etc - which are exactly the ones that are now most important.
EuCo also needs to work out their relations with us, and wrt the Allied Rapid Reaction Force (based here) which has 20 countries involved and works with NATO/EU, the existing EURAF (some EU countries), the CEF (Combined Expeditionary Force - UK France) and whatever else is out there.
Is it up to that when it wasn't able to organise a game of Musical Chairs in a Turkery?
1 -
Yes - we've seen how China treats its own people. We would expect to be treated worse.Casino_Royale said:
If we do nothing and China become the dominant global power your freedoms go too. Pouf. Gone. They will use a mixture of money and threats to control your life, and the world then slips into a dark new authoritarian age.northern_monkey said:
Let ‘em fucking get on with it. It’s their backyard. We don’t have an Empire anymore. We don’t rule the seas. Get over it. Yes they do things we don’t agree with. The treatment of the Uighurs is abhorrent, for example. The Taliban treat women like shit but we don’t care about them poor fuckers anymore. What are we going to do to China? Invade? Drone strikes?Cookie said:
What would your approach to China be?northern_monkey said:They’re fucking mental. They’ve ripped us out of Europe and are now lashing us to the US in time for conflict with China. Fuck me. Hasn’t Iraq and Afghanistan taught them anything?
They’re fucking mad.
China’s going to be the dominant global power. It’s going to happen. It’s not welcome but that’s the reality.
Wake up.1 -
New Zealand Herald:
NZ out in the cold as US, UK and Australia sign landmark security deal
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/nz-out-in-the-cold-as-us-uk-and-australia-sign-landmark-security-deal/L2NL4W7S23PSEG7HSJG7MGH7SU/2 -
When are the west going to get serious on China stealing IP, undercut Western companies, put them out of business and then monopolise the sector?
Even on a slightly silly level....if I was the US, UK, EU, I would be telling the likes of Amazon and eBay you have to absolutely crack down on the dodgy Chinese sellers on there.
Today, I nearly ended up buying something that all looked ok, then I did a bit of digging and found it is looks very much like a stolen IP product, Chinese company which has no real presence i.e. no proper website, no social media, I highly doubt they are paying VAT, do the old start a company, shut it down, switcharoo....and they were undercutting a well known brand by a few quid.
How many millions and millions of transactions are going through that platform where people just search for an item, oh look thats 10% cheaper, click, buy, job done. And its a very dodgy Chinese company behind it.4 -
China is coming for Europe, no doubt about thatPhilip_Thompson said:
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.1 -
A lot of Kiwis will hate being isolated and left as China's miniature blow-up doll facsimile of Australia, howeverYokes said:
In security terms, NZ political and government system is considered heavily penetrated by PRC but the other more prosaic factors are more important. They have limited military capability, even in regional terms, and little interest in improving that capability directly.Cyclefree said:
NZ has been a bit too susceptible to Chinese bullying of late to be entirely reliable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nor Franceping said:No Canada & NZ
Interesting0 -
Critically though, it hasn’t solved the problems with HGV drivers and baristasFishing said:I must be imagining this new alliance.
I could have sworn that nobody would want to have anything to do with us once we left the EU, especially when we reneged on that Northern Ireland deal and Boris prorogued Parliament.
I'll wake up tomorrow and we'll still be isolated.
1 -
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.Philip_Thompson said:
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.0 -
What makes you think it isn't? At least could be in short order. What 70 years of invasion planning is for.Casino_Royale said:
Taiwan needs to be turned into a multi-layered defensive booby-trapped rabbit-warren that makes Iwo Jima look like the Isle of Wight if they want to deter China.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
It needs to be clear to the PRC that they'd lose tens of thousands of men and get bogged down in bloody stalemate if they tried.
And I think it is clear. To the military and spies at least. Tens is an underestimate.0 -
.
Great prose! If only I knew what it meant.Leon said:
A lot of Kiwis will hate being isolated and left as China's miniature blow-up doll facsimile of Australia, howeverYokes said:
In security terms, NZ political and government system is considered heavily penetrated by PRC but the other more prosaic factors are more important. They have limited military capability, even in regional terms, and little interest in improving that capability directly.Cyclefree said:
NZ has been a bit too susceptible to Chinese bullying of late to be entirely reliable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nor Franceping said:No Canada & NZ
Interesting1 -
@StuartKLau
Australia's move to ditch France and team up with the US and UK for nuclear-powered submarines cannot come at a more embarrassing timing for the EU, which will tomorrow formally announce its Indo-Pacific strategy in which it vows to play a role in security and defence. (1/3)
Just half a month ago, France and Australia held their first 2+2 foreign and defence ministerial meeting, in which both sides "committed to ... enhance their capability edge in the region" and "underlined the importance of the Future Submarine program." (2/3)
The White House is showing where its most reliable partner is — at the expense of upsetting the EU ahead of the transatlantic Trade and Tech Council: "This is designed...to link Europe, and particularly Great Britain, more closely with our strategic pursuits in the region." (3/3)
https://twitter.com/StuartKLau/status/14382696478670315592 -
My take out, amongst the articles waffle and oddly chosen metaphors, Two factors could, in a period distort such polling, if KMT or DPP are currently in the political ascendency, the sort of thing that will be in cycles, and Hong Kong, how it actually plays out in terms of impacting Taiwanese thinking, independence or unification.kle4 said:
I am reading it now. That's why I put it as a question mark beforehand, as a potential guess.gealbhan said:
Is that how the article reads to you?kle4 said:
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?dixiedean said:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-experiencing-surge-pro-independence-sentiment-180923gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.
So it’s not what snapshot polls may say at anytime, it’s what wise old heads sense will happen in the long term. As the article itself says, they look to Hong Kong and imagine that to be their fate eventually. Who is actually laying it on the line for Hong Kong?
So fatalism also the greater Chinese resolve to win this seemed to be the suggestion how it eventually plays out. Though pretty much disguised in the article behind fighting talk.
We haven’t really been awake to how China has been winning this Cold War for so long. It’s not an old fashioned military thing. How many countries throughout the third world, and around the world from Caribbean throughout Africa, love China for the largesse, the construction projects that would never have happened if it wasn’t for China?
Even UK. It’s only in recent years the Tory government have thrown China out of our telecom networks and cancelled the nuclear power station China was to build for us, isn’t it? Even US. only under Trump was the manufacture of all the Apple products brought back to the United States.1 -
They bought the Pireaus, and are squeezing out competitors there by leaning towards Chinese shipping companies etc. Maersk etc do not like it. EuCo are worried about that, correctly.gealbhan said:
What’s your take on the Silk Road the Chinese are building in our direction? Where excitement is about facing them militarily, are we missing something? How concerned should we be about That Road?rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
It was a game Russia used to play with business on the Danube. I'm sure I recall Germany delayed finishing the last bit of the canal link between the Rhine and the Danube for decades for that reason.0 -
If we are all about to fall to China someone ask them to wait until morning.0
-
You mean you are using the rush of help to Hong Kong right now as an ultimate yardstick how it plays out?HYUFD said:
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.Philip_Thompson said:
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.0 -
+1GIN1138 said:
Oh dear. Sorry to hear that. Hope all turns out OK.Cyclefree said:Honestly, it never rains but it pours. I must have murdered a gazillion people in a previous life to get the sort of karma we're having lately.
At A&E. Husband swallowed something at dinner which has choked him, stuck in his throat and cannot be dislodged. 111 sent us here.
It is now raining and the dog is farting in the car. Furness Hospital car park on a wet Wednesday night is .... well ..... not the most thrilling place to be.
Dinner was chicken in a creamy leek and walnut sauce on a bed of rice, with steamed broccoli. In case you were wondering.
It may be a long night......
0 -
Yes - vast amount of our university sector is dependent on Chinese funding. Hopefully that will now be reviewed too.gealbhan said:
My take out, amongst the articles waffle and oddly chosen metaphors, Two factors could, in a period distort such polling, if KMT or DPP are currently in the political ascendency, the sort of thing that will be in cycles, and Hong Kong, how it actually plays out in terms of impacting Taiwanese thinking, independence or unification.kle4 said:
I am reading it now. That's why I put it as a question mark beforehand, as a potential guess.gealbhan said:
Is that how the article reads to you?kle4 said:
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?dixiedean said:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-experiencing-surge-pro-independence-sentiment-180923gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.
So it’s not what snapshot polls may say at anytime, it’s what wise old heads sense will happen in the long term. As the article itself says, they look to Hong Kong and imagine that to be their fate eventually. Who is actually laying it on the line for Hong Kong?
So fatalism also the greater Chinese resolve to win this seemed to be the suggestion how it eventually plays out. Though pretty much disguised in the article behind fighting talk.
We haven’t really been awake to how China has been winning this Cold War for so long. It’s not an old fashioned military thing. How many countries throughout the third world, and around the world from Caribbean throughout Africa, love China for the largesse, the construction projects that would never have happened if it wasn’t for China?
Even UK. It’s only in recent years the Tory government have thrown China out of our telecom networks and cancelled the nuclear power station China was to build for us, isn’t it? Even US. only under Trump was the manufacture of all the Apple products brought back to the United States.0 -
It's clear, but overexcited. One of those dildos would pop a blowup doll.Mexicanpete said:.
Great prose! If only I knew what it meant.Leon said:
A lot of Kiwis will hate being isolated and left as China's miniature blow-up doll facsimile of Australia, howeverYokes said:
In security terms, NZ political and government system is considered heavily penetrated by PRC but the other more prosaic factors are more important. They have limited military capability, even in regional terms, and little interest in improving that capability directly.Cyclefree said:
NZ has been a bit too susceptible to Chinese bullying of late to be entirely reliable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nor Franceping said:No Canada & NZ
Interesting2 -
Hope everything is OK Cyclefree.0
-
At least we now know where Johnson is going to put the Trident boats after Scottish independence. They are obviously going to RAN Fleet Base West at Garden Island.1
-
Isn’t it the thing all empires do, including the British? For example, you can carry on with your business outside a club, but aren’t you tempted by the closed shop opportunities for you if you sign up?MattW said:
They bought the Pireaus, and are squeezing out competitors there by leaning towards Chinese shipping companies etc. Maersk etc do not like it. EuCo are worried about that, correctly.gealbhan said:
What’s your take on the Silk Road the Chinese are building in our direction? Where excitement is about facing them militarily, are we missing something? How concerned should we be about That Road?rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
It was a game Russia used to play with business on the Danube. I'm sure I recall Germany delayed finishing the last bit of the canal link between the Rhine and the Danube for decades for that reason.
Well thanks anyway for replying on The Road, I would hate to think all the people agitated on here tonight could actually miss the most present threat and danger.0 -
The Foreign Secretary tweets:
Today’s landmark United Kingdom United States Australia security partnership reflects the UK’s commitment to deepening ties in the Indo-Pacific. We will work together to promote stability in a region that will become ever more important for the UK’s prosperity and security
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1438248837337001987?s=20
2 -
I suspect the west led by Biden would not intervene to help Taiwan as it has not intervened to help Hong Kong, only Japan and S Korea could be guaranteed US led support if invaded by China.gealbhan said:
You mean you are using the rush of help to Hong Kong right now as an ultimate yardstick how it plays out?HYUFD said:
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.Philip_Thompson said:
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.
Hence Taiwan will have to probably get nukes to add to its defences and give itself a chance of warning Beijing off0 -
No as we will need them to deter Putin, not that the SNP are going to be allowed an indyref2 anywayDura_Ace said:At least we now know where Johnson is going to put the Trident boats after Scottish independence. They are obviously going to RAN Fleet Base West at Garden Island.
0 -
.
TBF, she didn't let the grass grow under her feet. Talk about hitting the ground running.CarlottaVance said:The Foreign Secretary tweets:
Today’s landmark United Kingdom United States Australia security partnership reflects the UK’s commitment to deepening ties in the Indo-Pacific. We will work together to promote stability in a region that will become ever more important for the UK’s prosperity and security
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1438248837337001987?s=201 -
1
-
Good thread from Mr Tugendhat on AUKUS
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1438273128245907460?s=200 -
It’s great to be over our dependency on Chinese Largesse, investments, skills and Labour that is largely from sweat and hardship of slaves, especially to have the strong and honest ground to sound off like this on here this evening.Cookie said:
Yes - vast amount of our university sector is dependent on Chinese funding. Hopefully that will now be reviewed too.gealbhan said:
My take out, amongst the articles waffle and oddly chosen metaphors, Two factors could, in a period distort such polling, if KMT or DPP are currently in the political ascendency, the sort of thing that will be in cycles, and Hong Kong, how it actually plays out in terms of impacting Taiwanese thinking, independence or unification.kle4 said:
I am reading it now. That's why I put it as a question mark beforehand, as a potential guess.gealbhan said:
Is that how the article reads to you?kle4 said:
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?dixiedean said:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-experiencing-surge-pro-independence-sentiment-180923gealbhan said:
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.
So it’s not what snapshot polls may say at anytime, it’s what wise old heads sense will happen in the long term. As the article itself says, they look to Hong Kong and imagine that to be their fate eventually. Who is actually laying it on the line for Hong Kong?
So fatalism also the greater Chinese resolve to win this seemed to be the suggestion how it eventually plays out. Though pretty much disguised in the article behind fighting talk.
We haven’t really been awake to how China has been winning this Cold War for so long. It’s not an old fashioned military thing. How many countries throughout the third world, and around the world from Caribbean throughout Africa, love China for the largesse, the construction projects that would never have happened if it wasn’t for China?
Even UK. It’s only in recent years the Tory government have thrown China out of our telecom networks and cancelled the nuclear power station China was to build for us, isn’t it? Even US. only under Trump was the manufacture of all the Apple products brought back to the United States.
Vast amount of our higher education sector now dependent on Chinese funding? Really?
We did completely kick them out of our telecom infrastructure didn’t we? And cancel their involvement in our nuclear power industry? Chincly Point?0 -
Yes. And it depends how you evaluate the request.gealbhan said:
Isn’t it the thing all empires do, including the British? For example, you can carry on with your business outside a club, but aren’t you tempted by the closed shop opportunities for you if you sign up?MattW said:
They bought the Pireaus, and are squeezing out competitors there by leaning towards Chinese shipping companies etc. Maersk etc do not like it. EuCo are worried about that, correctly.gealbhan said:
What’s your take on the Silk Road the Chinese are building in our direction? Where excitement is about facing them militarily, are we missing something? How concerned should we be about That Road?rcs1000 said:
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.gealbhan said:Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
It was a game Russia used to play with business on the Danube. I'm sure I recall Germany delayed finishing the last bit of the canal link between the Rhine and the Danube for decades for that reason.
Well thanks anyway for replying on The Road, I would hate to think all the people agitated on here tonight could actually miss the most present threat and danger.
Let's avoid ranking Empires by evilness today.
Personally I think that Western democracy, or other democratic though different-looking societies *, are far better than the alternative.
* (of the sort that should - with hindsight - have been built in Afghanistan and similar rather than just trying to create a carbon copy.)1 -
Wow. Tugendhat is practically sending out the gunboats already.Leon said:Good thread from Mr Tugendhat on AUKUS
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1438273128245907460?s=200 -
YES ABSOLUTELY! I mean seriously, you accuse @ydoethur of TDS, but I think that’s what you’re showing: that you think your idol can do no wrong. Of course the US military will not allow a deranged President to start a nuclear war without justification. As ydoethur said, Congress holds the power to go to war (and it is to their shame that they have allowed successive Presidents to run rings around that over many decades), and as I said they are only sworn to follow lawful orders.MrEd said:
Stanislav Petrov is a bad example. He was the Duty Officer and made a decision that the alarm was probably false.rpjs said:
Nope, no-one elected Mark Milley but no-one elected Vasili Arkhipov or Stanislav Petrov either, but we might not still be here if they hadn’t done what they did.MrEd said:Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:
https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/
And US military swear oaths to obey lawful orders from their superiors, and the bit about defending the Constitution comes first IIRC. Hard to defend a constitution if the country it constitutes is a pile of smoking rubble.
It is slightly different to telling your opposite number you will give them advance notice of an attack and consult no civilian on your actions.
As I said to @ydoethur the question is, if Milley did this to a Democrat President under the same circumstances or a similar situation, would you see it as similarly justified or say it is wrong?
If the Chinese had decided, “ooh, this is a great opportunity to conquer Taiwan”, then for sure Milley would have told them squat, but if you really think he should have sat by and let Trump start WW3 n a whim, it’s you that’s deranged!4 -
UUP picks a Catholic candidate to run in South Belfast in the NI Assembly
https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1438281841988018178?s=200 -
Why was there no place for Tugenhadt in today's round of musical chairs? Someone who makes perfect sense.Leon said:Good thread from Mr Tugendhat on AUKUS
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1438273128245907460?s=20
I still think today's posturing is a decade late.0 -
Are you not a little ahead of things there, all a bit 1984, will they ever really have a hunger for Japan and Korea as they have for Hong Kong and Taiwan?HYUFD said:
I suspect the west led by Biden would not intervene to help Taiwan as it has not intervened to help Hong Kong, only Japan and S Korea could be guaranteed US led support if invaded by China.gealbhan said:
You mean you are using the rush of help to Hong Kong right now as an ultimate yardstick how it plays out?HYUFD said:
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.Philip_Thompson said:
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.
Hence Taiwan will have to probably get nukes to add to its defences and give itself a chance of warning Beijing off0 -
I liked the way you threw your Sindyref2 Molotov into the mix there.HYUFD said:
No as we will need them to deter Putin, not that the SNP are going to be allowed an indyref2 anywayDura_Ace said:At least we now know where Johnson is going to put the Trident boats after Scottish independence. They are obviously going to RAN Fleet Base West at Garden Island.
0 -
Because of the US-AU-UK alliance?Leon said:The UK should now expect much of the EU to become even more blatantly hostile. Not even casual friends, just neighbours that glare over the hedge
In eastern Europe and Scandi they might like to be friendlier, but core western Europe will see us as near-enemies, certainly rivals
So be it.
I wonder where this leaves Scottish Nationalism (a bit screwed, foreign policywise?) but also, in the end, Ireland.
Nah. I think just as likely is a real push behind the scenes from the most Atlantic-minded EU and EEA countries to join this club.
We may even end up making friends in the EU as a result of this, because the UK is as route into this.
The big problem the EU has is that it is riven over Russia: some countries see it as a massive threat (whether the Baltics or the French), while others see it as a model to be emulated (Poland and Hungary).
It's very hard for the EU to stand up to Russia, given this split.0 -
Tropic of Cancer I think, as the Americans didn’t want to have to defend the European colonies still existing back then.IshmaelZ said:
NATO has a pretty watertight North of the equator only clause in its constitution, I think.pigeon said:
I briefly wondered whether Australia might be looking to join Nato, but reports suggest a novel tripartite arrangement between the three countries concerned.Foss said:I wonder if it's nuclear weapons sharing as well as the subs?
1 -
But surely all Empires have been commercial projects first and foremost?HYUFD said:
I suspect the west led by Biden would not intervene to help Taiwan as it has not intervened to help Hong Kong, only Japan and S Korea could be guaranteed US led support if invaded by China.gealbhan said:
You mean you are using the rush of help to Hong Kong right now as an ultimate yardstick how it plays out?HYUFD said:
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.Philip_Thompson said:
I have it the other way around.MrEd said:
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.
Hence Taiwan will have to probably get nukes to add to its defences and give itself a chance of warning Beijing off
Japan and Korea? Why would they want the trouble of invading and holding everywhere, when they can get so rich manufacturing everything for us, and have it in a box on our doorstep next morning? 🐪0 -
Not entirely true - you have joined him in voting Conservative once or twice, as well as you voting Labour?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He voted remain as I didMrEd said:
@HYFUD is a remainer?Philip_Thompson said:
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.HYUFD said:
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far EastLeon said:
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just becauseMaxPB said:
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.Nigelb said:
That aspect of it troubles me.MaxPB said:France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
And that is where the comparison ends0 -
Nobody bit on this, which wasn't surprising because it was a very dull question, albeit one posed because I was getting a bit bored with the London stuff.Flatlander said:FPT, and whilst we are on Underground Trivia.
Where are the two oldest deep level stations (ie in a tunnel rather than cut/cover)? No Googling now...
The answer is of course that any fans catching the train back from Anfield to Birkenhead this evening went through both of them.
Anyway, I thought this evenings conference was interesting from one point of view. Is this going to be much more common now everyone is comfortable with Zoom?
Got a bit of trouble at home? Set up an international call and appear Prime Ministerial / Presidential in minutes!
Didn't exactly work for Biden though. Him making it through 4 years looks unlikelier by the day.
0 -
Well, the original underground was along the Euston Road, but I'm pretty sure that is all cut/cover.Flatlander said:
Nobody bit on this, which wasn't surprising because it was a very dull question, albeit one posed because I was getting a bit bored with the London stuff.Flatlander said:FPT, and whilst we are on Underground Trivia.
Where are the two oldest deep level stations (ie in a tunnel rather than cut/cover)? No Googling now...
The answer is of course that any fans catching the train back from Anfield to Birkenhead this evening went through both of them.
Anyway, I thought this evenings conference was interesting from one point of view. Is this going to be much more common now everyone is comfortable with Zoom?
Got a bit of trouble at home? Set up an international call and appear Prime Ministerial / Presidential in minutes!
Didn't exactly work for Biden though. Him making it through 4 years looks unlikelier by the day.
0 -
But but but but the media said he hated Boris and not very keen on Britain.....CarlottaVance said:Johnson to White House next week:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1438280903525027850?s=20
I would appreciate it if Boris could get Sleepy Uncle Joe to open up the air corridor with the US ASAP...2 -
Given the reliance of Australian economy on China, its a lot braver than UK or US lobbing some nasty words and finger waving Chinas way. They could easily take the NZ approach and play nice with them.3
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U.S. reporting nearly 2,000 coronavirus deaths a day on average, the highest since March 10
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Nearly time for blast off......0
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A lot of news channels/radio stations still aren't covering the new agreement.0
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Its much more important to be wibbling about how many women, ethnic minorities and state school educated people are in the cabinet.Andy_JS said:A lot of news channels/radio stations still aren't covering the new agreement.
4 -
Liftoff of
@Inspiration4X
! Go Falcon 9! Go Dragon!
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1438292412820979712?s=200
