Labour have their first opinion poll lead since January – politicalbetting.com

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

“Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

TheScreamingEagles said:

India forfeit the final test.

Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.

If you can match your words with relevant odds ...

You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.

Sandpit said:

Scott_xP said:

The only way to fix the HGV shortage problem is to admit that it's caused by Brexit. But the government can't do that, so instead we're forced to live in a make-believe world in which Brexit is perfect and the supply system is degrading around us.

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/hgv-driver-shortage-uk-government-fix-lorry-crisis-caused-brexit-1191706

Are the driver shortages in Germany and the USA also caused by Brexit? How’s about global container shipping prices being double the historic rates, and a massive shortage of computers and cars because of computer chip supply issues - all also caused by Brexit?

Logistics is screwed up everywhere at the moment.

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.

If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

It is all nonsense.

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Edit... I added in a cheeky 2 quid on Rashford at 219/1.

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.

If you can match your words with relevant odds ...

You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

India forfeit the final test.

Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

Are the ticket-holders going to be as screwed as the Belgian Grand Prix fans?

No, they'd get a refund.

But no refund for transport/hotel costs.

There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

“Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.

If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

It is all nonsense.

In most Northern and Midlands cities eg Manchester and Birmingham homes are nowhere near £900k and affordable for graduates.

Alan Sugar or Liam Gallagher or David Beckham for example on the other side may be middle class indeed super rich class by wealth but they are working class by education and background

Pulpstar said:

What I don't understand is how playing increases the Indian team's risk above their bubble ?
They've all got to get a flight home - bit more of a danger regarding Covid than being out in the middle.
They can eat socially distanced sandwiches for lunch..
Open the windows on their bus or all get ubers to the ground.. get changed in the car etc etc

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

India forfeit the final test.

Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

Are the ticket-holders going to be as screwed as the Belgian Grand Prix fans?

No, they'd get a refund.

But no refund for transport/hotel costs.

There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.

Does Lancashire have insurance for all the F&B that’s going in the bin, and all the staff costs they’ve run up this week setting things up for the match?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heathener said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

India forfeit the final test.

Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair

A win is a win.

I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.

I backed a draw in this series so I'm not in a dark place.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

I'll take that!

TheScreamingEagles said:

The YouGov tables are out.

Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
Lab: 35% (+1)
Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
Green: 9% (-1)
SNP: 5% (n/c)
Reform UK: 5% (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heathener said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

India forfeit the final test.

Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair

A win is a win.

I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.

I backed a draw in this series so I'm not in a dark place.

Sadly you might still be. There is now dispute over whether India have forfeited or not. The forfeit claim has been removed from an updated statement.

Oooh this might be just like the Theresa May exit market fiasco.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

India forfeit the final test.

Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

Are the ticket-holders going to be as screwed as the Belgian Grand Prix fans?

No, they'd get a refund.

But no refund for transport/hotel costs.

There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The YouGov tables are out.

Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
Lab: 35% (+1)
Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
Green: 9% (-1)
SNP: 5% (n/c)
Reform UK: 5% (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.

To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.

If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.

Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.

This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.

another_richard said:

Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.

If you can match your words with relevant odds ...

You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.

Sandpit said:

“Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
~8-10 grandchildren adults
~10-20+ great-grandchildren
That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

I'll take that!

Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.

And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.

Heathener said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Given women normally don't win...

I think that has more to do with the fact that there really haven't been that many successful individual British sportswomen on the international stage.

Which is why this is even more of a buy not a lay.

Tom's is the other story which may win SPOTY.

Whoever wins will, I think, be a feel good winner. So if Emma wins the US Open she will win SPOTY. But Tom's story is also a very good one.

Stocky said:

another_richard said:

Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

Grade the current Conservative government against the key conservative markers below?:

• Suspicious of change – therefore favour the status quo
• Smaller government and therefore lower taxes than other parties would apply
• Sound, prudent finances - the efficient use of taxpayer money
• Encourage private property and free enterprise
• A strong military and policing
• The preservation of existing cultural values and institutions
• Strong leader
• Belief in traditional family life
• Patriotism, strong belief in what is in the national interest
• A bit sniffy about dissent and protest
• Conservatives tolerate status and class because they accept that life isn’t fair

eek said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.

To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.

If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.

Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.

This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.

In the very short term the money will be used to allow the NHS to increase capacity and deal with the backlog of work. That will undoubtedly help those in need of social care as well as the rest of us. In the medium term the money going into social care will be more than doubled by this. The most needy in our society will benefit enormously. To me this is morally right.

From everything I'm seeing online - the one thing that would most help the NHS at the moment would be adding extra social care capacity so that hospital beds blocked by people who need care but not hospital care could be unblocked

ClippP said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

“Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

Mr Sandpit, why do you go in for making up lies about the Lib Dems?

Just wondering....

noneoftheabove said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
~8-10 grandchildren adults
~10-20+ great-grandchildren
That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.

??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.

So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

“Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

"We"? I didn't know you were a definite Tory? Nothing wrong with that, just suprised as you generally have a judicious approach that doesn't suggest a firm commitment.

Pulpstar said:

noneoftheabove said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
~8-10 grandchildren adults
~10-20+ great-grandchildren
That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.

??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.

So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.

I don't think I've ever said it was !

MattW said:

The dodgy tax compaisons are still doing the rounds.

It's amazing what Callum Robertson the Co-Chair of the Young Liberals UK can do with some very dodgy / fake stats, a couple of carefully designed strawmen, and a dimmed out Labour Party hashtag.

https://twitter.com/CRobertson_LD/status/1435887009399197696
Look at the disparity and tell me that the NI rise is fair.

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
14m
The thing that will worry Tory MPs most about this poll is Reform on 5%. That's what the Boris has been benefiting from. The absence of a threat from the Right.

noneoftheabove said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

I'll take that!

Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.

And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.

Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.

If she loses the final I'll be very surprised if she wins SPOTY. If she wins the final then there will be an initial fanfare but few will have watched the games because it is not on proper telly (I'm assuming the final isn't) and the achievement may fade a little in the memory of the public in the months to voting. It will come down to media profile between now and then and Daley has it it seems but I just wonder whether Peaty competing on Come Dancing may provide a big advantage for him especially if he does well.

Ssshh, I have been trying and failing to get matched on Peaty this morning!

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

another_richard said:

Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

Grade the current Conservative government against the key conservative markers below?:

• Suspicious of change – therefore favour the status quo
• Smaller government and therefore lower taxes than other parties would apply
• Sound, prudent finances - the efficient use of taxpayer money
• Encourage private property and free enterprise
• A strong military and policing
• The preservation of existing cultural values and institutions
• Strong leader
• Belief in traditional family life
• Patriotism, strong belief in what is in the national interest
• A bit sniffy about dissent and protest
• Conservatives tolerate status and class because they accept that life isn’t fair

I'd give the current government a tick for #3 (the Chancellor is trying to get the books balanced extremely quickly after a recession, too quickly I'd argue), #5 (extra police has been a priority), #7 (others may think he's a joke, but its the Boris show now, he is a strong leader), #9 (what others call fleg shagging), #10 (that crime bill that just passed is a disgrace for clamping down on protest), #11 (redistributing workers taxes to pay for inheritances)

So 6/11 ticks.

noneoftheabove said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
~8-10 grandchildren adults
~10-20+ great-grandchildren
That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.

??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.

So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

Do 31%

Do not 53%

And yet they have just done more for the NHS than Cameron ever did. Funny old world.

I know a few Labour strategists/pollsters from the Brown/Miliband era, it used to drive them up the wall that no matter what Labour did the voters always thought the NHS was safe and improving under David Cameron.

Stocky said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.

Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
2.2 Emma Raducanu
2.48 Tom Daley
8.2 Jason Kenny
8.2 Adam Peaty
15 Lewis Hamilton
26 bar

LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.

Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

Give me some of that!

I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.

I'll take that!

Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.

And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.

Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.

If she loses the final I'll be very surprised if she wins SPOTY. If she wins the final then there will be an initial fanfare but few will have watched the games because it is not on proper telly (I'm assuming the final isn't) and the achievement may fade a little in the memory of the public in the months to voting. It will come down to media profile between now and then and Daley has it it seems but I just wonder whether Peaty competing on Come Dancing may provide a big advantage for him especially if he does well.

Ssshh, I have been trying and failing to get matched on Peaty this morning!

I'm already on him at 10 but I've just checked and got a bit more on at 15.5. That's a great price I think.

IshmaelZ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.

North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019

Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.

Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
~8-10 grandchildren adults
~10-20+ great-grandchildren
That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.

??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.

But that's the point. If it just goes to the aged 60+ kids then nothing is left for the grandkids (or later) to get on the property ladder.

If the aged 60+ kids take it and give some to their own kids, then it still won't be enough to pay for a deposit let alone a house for the grandkids.

Either way the idea of some windfall inheritance only really works if you're an only child and its not being split any further.

Depends how big the pot is.

OldKingCole said:

northern_monkey said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed



Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities

There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.

If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

It is all nonsense.

HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.

There's an old Lancashire saying, too. Clogs to clogs in three generations.
Not every family, of course, but see the first in this years 'A House through Time' on BBC. The first family living in the selected house did exactly that.

rottenborough said:

Will this poll change the vote of Tuesday for Johnson's NI levy plans?

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Will this poll change the vote of Tuesday for Johnson's NI levy plans?

There was no reason to push through such a tax rise without proper discussion or debate in the House. Why couldn't it wait for the budget? Then it could have killed off Sunaks prospects, not Johnsons.