*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Laying the favourite is a strategy that deteriorates the closer to the result in time that we get to the actual contest. In the end the favourite is the one to back.
This isn't something that I plan to bet on, but what further contenders could emerge?
any big boxing matches due before end of the year?
I think a bit of wait and see will be needed. I agree with the rest of the universe that when Boris's wheels come off it will happen bigly but not sure yet that this is it.
Compared with the poll tax the actual sums involved in this change for individuals is not great, though of course it is unfairly distributed.
I wonder if the larger issue is that the social care system changes will be judged inadequate.
As to 'the party of low tax', there isn't one. No party is presenting a programme of small state. Whether we like it or not a world of universal free education, NHS, state pensions and a benefits support system means a socialist state, and more so as people get more ill, more old, there remain a significant proportion of dysfunctional families and unemployable people, and young people stay in education for ever.
A costed Philip Thompson analysis of what a small state, low tax society will look like starting from where we actually are would be worth a read. Any chance?
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Laying the favourite is a strategy that deteriorates the closer to the result in time that we get to the actual contest. In the end the favourite is the one to back.
This isn't something that I plan to bet on, but what further contenders could emerge?
Correct, as we get nearer to the end of the year, we see who are the actual contenders and can bet accordingly.
I’m not sure there’s much more sport to come now, but do note that the last F1 race of the season is currently scheduled to be on the same day as the SPoTY show. Which will screw up my on-the-night betting, as I have tickets for it!
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Laying the favourite is a strategy that deteriorates the closer to the result in time that we get to the actual contest. In the end the favourite is the one to back.
This isn't something that I plan to bet on, but what further contenders could emerge?
any big boxing matches due before end of the year?
Both Joshua and Tyson have fights later this month / October but not against each other.
I suspect Emma wins SPOTY if she wins on Saturday otherwise it will be Tom.
*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
If she wins the US Open I can't see her not being Spoty. Good chance even if she doesn't. It's the biggest Brit sporting story for ages.
Emma certainly has a chance and will surely be nominated but the SPotY market is thin and overreacts to recent events.
Betfair price graphs show the following traded below 3.5 (or 5/2 in old money):- Jason Kenny, last matched at 19.5 Laura Kenny, last matched at 55 Lewis Hamilton, last matched at 44 Mark Cavendish, last matched at 60
So that's at least four candidates who traded short but are now out with the washing.
The US Open takes place in the middle of the night on a fringe internet channel rather than proper telly. Who will have seen it? Against that, it would be no surprise to see Raducanu pick up some tv advertising. So it's possible but remember Andy Murray, who has won SPotY three times. In 2012 Murray won gold at the London Olympics as well as the US Open. He did not win SPotY until the following year when he won Wimbledon.
I suspect you're flogging a dead horse here.
'Fringe internet channel' is a bit passe to be honest and the 'rather than proper telly' is hilariously old-fashioned. I mean, really truly do you mean what you've written there? Hilarious in this internet age when so many people stream or watch on catch-up. Some Amazon Prime shows are big. As an aside, I thoroughly recommend Clarkson's Farm by the way: wonderful series.
Anyway, Emma's all over the media this morning, literally the lead news headline on BBC and Sky as well as the Mail which is a huge outlet.
In terms of people watching, I suspect the final will attract quite large numbers but it doesn't really matter how many people watch it live. When the BBC present SPOTY if (and it's a big if) she wins the US open, they will make a massive thing of it on the show. The BBC love their tennis: they don't own the rights to Wimbledon for no reason. Many of the movers and shakers in their sports coverage are big fans.
It's a big story. A very big story. That creates its own momentum. She's a thoroughly likeable person, who was sitting her A levels in May. She had an awful time under the spotlights at Wimbledon, so to bounce back like this is a wonderful 'feel good' story which is exactly what everyone needs right now.
She's not nailed on for SPOTY, especially if she doesn't win. But if she does then in my opinion she's right to be the odds-on favourite.
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Laying the favourite is a strategy that deteriorates the closer to the result in time that we get to the actual contest. In the end the favourite is the one to back.
This isn't something that I plan to bet on, but what further contenders could emerge?
any big boxing matches due before end of the year?
Both Joshua and Tyson have fights later this month / October but not against each other.
I suspect Emma wins SPOTY if she wins on Saturday otherwise it will be Tom.
Yes, if Joshua and Fury had fought each other, that was going to be a massive event. But alas, maybe next year now.
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
liking that strategy. very much.
As @DecrepiterJohnL pointed out upthread, the SPoTY market over-reacts to the news, doubly so during the Olympics.
We haven’t even seen the shortlist yet, so many of those who were favourite at some point might end up as non-runners.
It does but I think laying the favourite now could be a loser. I think the favourite now is a very deserved favourite and if she wins on Saturday she should be a very heavy odds on favourite.
One difference between her story and the Olympians is that not only is her success so completely unexpected but people are invested in her journey now in a way that hasn't happened for the various Olympians to the same extent.
From Wimbledon to this she's being talked about for days and weeks at a time. Whereas for the Olympians most were spoken about for a day or so then the conversation moved on for the next one.
Plus she seems to have an immense PR team. Or the media just love her. Sky were referring after her QF win to this being a "fairytale in New York" if that tagline catches on, given the nation's love for that song, and the fact SPOTY is in December ... It's a genius association.
I think a bit of wait and see will be needed. I agree with the rest of the universe that when Boris's wheels come off it will happen bigly but not sure yet that this is it.
Compared with the poll tax the actual sums involved in this change for individuals is not great, though of course it is unfairly distributed.
I wonder if the larger issue is that the social care system changes will be judged inadequate.
As to 'the party of low tax', there isn't one. No party is presenting a programme of small state. Whether we like it or not a world of universal free education, NHS, state pensions and a benefits support system means a socialist state, and more so as people get more ill, more old, there remain a significant proportion of dysfunctional families and unemployable people, and young people stay in education for ever.
A costed Philip Thompson analysis of what a small state, low tax society will look like starting from where we actually are would be worth a read. Any chance?
That is probably the biggest issue.
The tax kicks in on April 2022 and the next election will be in November 2023 / May 2024 by which time the General Public will be expecting service improvements that simply won't have had time to be implemented (especially as the sector isn't getting any money until April 2023).
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
liking that strategy. very much.
As @DecrepiterJohnL pointed out upthread, the SPoTY market over-reacts to the news, doubly so during the Olympics.
We haven’t even seen the shortlist yet, so many of those who were favourite at some point might end up as non-runners.
Plus she seems to have an immense PR team. Or the media just love her. Sky were referring after her QF win to this being a "fairytale in New York" if that tagline catches on, given the nation's love for that song, and the fact SPOTY is in December ... It's a genius association.
Yes, FAIRYTALE IN NEW YORK is the mailonline lead story right now.
*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
However if REF fell back too to the 2% that voted BXP in 2019 with the remaining 3% going back to the Tories, then Labour would only be on 298 seats even with all those votes regained from the Greens and Labour and the LDs combined would only be on 314 ie still short of the 326 needed for a majority. So Labour would again be reliant on the SNP for a majority
*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
And someone called Boris Johnson would lose his seat. Looking at the seat list of Tory losses on this prospect suggests that there is much to play for, that Labour have lost their non big city heartland, and that even with this Tory massacre Labour are nowhere close to a majority.
Is Labour really going to win Kenneth Clarke's old seat?
I’m not sure we can take much from results on Tyneside. We need Durham and Northumberland by elections.
What are you suggesting? (If you are a local councillor in Durham or Northumberland, don't have nightmares.)
In reference to last night’s by election results (including my own ward), just that Tyneside isn’t a great indicator on the state of the red wall in of itself.
Hasn't Castle ward always been Lib Dem though - I seem to remember that was where a student friend was a councillor back in 1992.
I love the details of the poll, which confirm what most of us have always believed.
*in theory*, people are willing to pay more tax for the NHS and social care. In practice, hell no!
Or that they just approve of taxes on other people...Or at least that they see as only benefiting others.
Money certainly is needed to clear the backlogs, but money can only do so much, the critical thing is shortages of capacity in theatres and outpatients, particularly in personnel. That cannot be wished away with a flash of the chequebook. Staff are depleted, exhausted and demoralised after 18 months of covid. Overtime and moonlighting can only go so far.
I think a bit of wait and see will be needed. I agree with the rest of the universe that when Boris's wheels come off it will happen bigly but not sure yet that this is it.
Compared with the poll tax the actual sums involved in this change for individuals is not great, though of course it is unfairly distributed.
I wonder if the larger issue is that the social care system changes will be judged inadequate.
As to 'the party of low tax', there isn't one. No party is presenting a programme of small state. Whether we like it or not a world of universal free education, NHS, state pensions and a benefits support system means a socialist state, and more so as people get more ill, more old, there remain a significant proportion of dysfunctional families and unemployable people, and young people stay in education for ever.
A costed Philip Thompson analysis of what a small state, low tax society will look like starting from where we actually are would be worth a read. Any chance?
A small state society wouldn’t have had as harsh a lockdown or paid so much furlough would it? Right from the start of lockdown/furlough people said we’d get a huge bill for it at the end, and here it is
I like the fact that debated betting opportunities on this site are not only about politics. That's really good and echoes the fact that the betting companies have politics in their sportsbooks
A Farage-less Reform/Brexit/UKIP won’t get anywhere. He is the only politician of that ilk with mass appeal. He could make a come back though I suppose
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
If she wins the US Open I can't see her not being Spoty. Good chance even if she doesn't. It's the biggest Brit sporting story for ages.
Emma certainly has a chance and will surely be nominated but the SPotY market is thin and overreacts to recent events.
Betfair price graphs show the following traded below 3.5 (or 5/2 in old money):- Jason Kenny, last matched at 19.5 Laura Kenny, last matched at 55 Lewis Hamilton, last matched at 44 Mark Cavendish, last matched at 60
So that's at least four candidates who traded short but are now out with the washing.
The US Open takes place in the middle of the night on a fringe internet channel rather than proper telly. Who will have seen it? Against that, it would be no surprise to see Raducanu pick up some tv advertising. So it's possible but remember Andy Murray, who has won SPotY three times. In 2012 Murray won gold at the London Olympics as well as the US Open. He did not win SPotY until the following year when he won Wimbledon.
I suspect you're flogging a dead horse here.
'Fringe internet channel' is a bit passe to be honest and the 'rather than proper telly' is hilariously old-fashioned. I mean, really truly do you mean what you've written there? Hilarious in this internet age when so many people stream or watch on catch-up. Some Amazon Prime shows are big. As an aside, I thoroughly recommend Clarkson's Farm by the way: wonderful series.
Anyway, Emma's all over the media this morning, literally the lead news headline on BBC and Sky as well as the Mail which is a huge outlet.
In terms of people watching, I suspect the final will attract quite large numbers but it doesn't really matter how many people watch it live. When the BBC present SPOTY if (and it's a big if) she wins the US open, they will make a massive thing of it on the show. The BBC love their tennis: they don't own the rights to Wimbledon for no reason. Many of the movers and shakers in their sports coverage are big fans.
It's a big story. A very big story. That creates its own momentum. She's a thoroughly likeable person, who was sitting her A levels in May. She had an awful time under the spotlights at Wimbledon, so to bounce back like this is a wonderful 'feel good' story which is exactly what everyone needs right now.
She's not nailed on for SPOTY, especially if she doesn't win. But if she does then in my opinion she's right to be the odds-on favourite.
is there any chance the BBC could buy the rights from Amazon to also show the final? I think they might have done in the past for an event they weren't covering but where Andy Murray reached the final.
Winning is important. I haven't the time or inclination to trace back through how many SPOTY's haven't in fact won in the relevant year? Presumably some?
I mean, one ought to mention Joe Root this year whose personal batting performance has been sensational. But the England cricket team as a whole have been pretty awful so there's very little chance of Joe winning SPOTY. The Ashes will come too late but then we stand very little chance down under in my opinion.
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
If she wins the US Open I can't see her not being Spoty. Good chance even if she doesn't. It's the biggest Brit sporting story for ages.
Emma certainly has a chance and will surely be nominated but the SPotY market is thin and overreacts to recent events.
Betfair price graphs show the following traded below 3.5 (or 5/2 in old money):- Jason Kenny, last matched at 19.5 Laura Kenny, last matched at 55 Lewis Hamilton, last matched at 44 Mark Cavendish, last matched at 60
So that's at least four candidates who traded short but are now out with the washing.
The US Open takes place in the middle of the night on a fringe internet channel rather than proper telly. Who will have seen it? Against that, it would be no surprise to see Raducanu pick up some tv advertising. So it's possible but remember Andy Murray, who has won SPotY three times. In 2012 Murray won gold at the London Olympics as well as the US Open. He did not win SPotY until the following year when he won Wimbledon.
I suspect you're flogging a dead horse here.
'Fringe internet channel' is a bit passe to be honest and the 'rather than proper telly' is hilariously old-fashioned. I mean, really truly do you mean what you've written there? Hilarious in this internet age when so many people stream or watch on catch-up. Some Amazon Prime shows are big. As an aside, I thoroughly recommend Clarkson's Farm by the way: wonderful series.
Anyway, Emma's all over the media this morning, literally the lead news headline on BBC and Sky as well as the Mail which is a huge outlet.
In terms of people watching, I suspect the final will attract quite large numbers but it doesn't really matter how many people watch it live. When the BBC present SPOTY if (and it's a big if) she wins the US open, they will make a massive thing of it on the show. The BBC love their tennis: they don't own the rights to Wimbledon for no reason. Many of the movers and shakers in their sports coverage are big fans.
It's a big story. A very big story. That creates its own momentum. She's a thoroughly likeable person, who was sitting her A levels in May. She had an awful time under the spotlights at Wimbledon, so to bounce back like this is a wonderful 'feel good' story which is exactly what everyone needs right now.
She's not nailed on for SPOTY, especially if she doesn't win. But if she does then in my opinion she's right to be the odds-on favourite.
is there any chance the BBC could buy the rights from Amazon to also show the final? I think they might have done in the past for an event they weren't covering but where Andy Murray reached the final.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
If she wins the US Open I can't see her not being Spoty. Good chance even if she doesn't. It's the biggest Brit sporting story for ages.
Emma certainly has a chance and will surely be nominated but the SPotY market is thin and overreacts to recent events.
Betfair price graphs show the following traded below 3.5 (or 5/2 in old money):- Jason Kenny, last matched at 19.5 Laura Kenny, last matched at 55 Lewis Hamilton, last matched at 44 Mark Cavendish, last matched at 60
So that's at least four candidates who traded short but are now out with the washing.
The US Open takes place in the middle of the night on a fringe internet channel rather than proper telly. Who will have seen it? Against that, it would be no surprise to see Raducanu pick up some tv advertising. So it's possible but remember Andy Murray, who has won SPotY three times. In 2012 Murray won gold at the London Olympics as well as the US Open. He did not win SPotY until the following year when he won Wimbledon.
I suspect you're flogging a dead horse here.
'Fringe internet channel' is a bit passe to be honest and the 'rather than proper telly' is hilariously old-fashioned. I mean, really truly do you mean what you've written there? Hilarious in this internet age when so many people stream or watch on catch-up. Some Amazon Prime shows are big. As an aside, I thoroughly recommend Clarkson's Farm by the way: wonderful series.
Anyway, Emma's all over the media this morning, literally the lead news headline on BBC and Sky as well as the Mail which is a huge outlet.
In terms of people watching, I suspect the final will attract quite large numbers but it doesn't really matter how many people watch it live. When the BBC present SPOTY if (and it's a big if) she wins the US open, they will make a massive thing of it on the show. The BBC love their tennis: they don't own the rights to Wimbledon for no reason. Many of the movers and shakers in their sports coverage are big fans.
It's a big story. A very big story. That creates its own momentum. She's a thoroughly likeable person, who was sitting her A levels in May. She had an awful time under the spotlights at Wimbledon, so to bounce back like this is a wonderful 'feel good' story which is exactly what everyone needs right now.
She's not nailed on for SPOTY, especially if she doesn't win. But if she does then in my opinion she's right to be the odds-on favourite.
is there any chance the BBC could buy the rights from Amazon to also show the final? I think they might have done in the past for an event they weren't covering but where Andy Murray reached the final.
Was wondering the same.
I seriously doubt it - if you want to watch it (9pm Saturday) and don't have Amazon Prime - there is a 30 day trial available for free.
Winning is important. I haven't the time or inclination to trace back through how many SPOTY's haven't in fact won in the relevant year? Presumably some?
I mean, one ought to mention Joe Root this year whose personal batting performance has been sensational. But the England cricket team as a whole have been pretty awful so there's very little chance of Joe winning SPOTY. The Ashes will come too late but then we stand very little chance down under in my opinion.
The last person to win SPoTY without actually winning something at their sport that year, was Ryan Giggs.
After which, the BBC changed the rules and now they nominate a shortlist for the public vote.
Edit: If Raducanu loses the final, will the BBC even nominate her over an Olympic gold medalist?
*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
And someone called Boris Johnson would lose his seat. Looking at the seat list of Tory losses on this prospect suggests that there is much to play for, that Labour have lost their non big city heartland, and that even with this Tory massacre Labour are nowhere close to a majority.
Is Labour really going to win Kenneth Clarke's old seat?
True, though I expect being Leader of the Opposition to a Labour government in Sturgeon's and Blackford's pockets would I am sure appeal to Sunak or Truss or Patel or whoever took over from Boris if that came to pass. Raab would lose his seat to the LDs on this poll too so would be out of the frame.
Rushcliffe was Remain so now a top Labour target. However the prospect of a Labour government reliant on the SNP would enable Boris to replay the card with Starmer Cameron played with Ed Miliband and Salmond in 2015
Winning is important. I haven't the time or inclination to trace back through how many SPOTY's haven't in fact won in the relevant year? Presumably some?
I mean, one ought to mention Joe Root this year whose personal batting performance has been sensational. But the England cricket team as a whole have been pretty awful so there's very little chance of Joe winning SPOTY. The Ashes will come too late but then we stand very little chance down under in my opinion.
greg rusedski was only runner up in the US Open and won SPOTY>
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
It won’t get much traction with non graduates. And what’s with this new thing of adding money that students borrowed to their tax bill as if they’re victim of some trick? No one made them go to University
"We want this better funded. We support more taxes."
"Ok, your income tax is rising by-"
"NO!!! More taxes on people who aren't me!"
It is nevertheless outrageous that better off pensioners aren’t being asked to contribute to the costs of the NHS/care proposals. The income tax personal allowance is now sufficiently high that poorer pensioners wouldn’t of course have paid anything had the increase gone on IT.
Winning is important. I haven't the time or inclination to trace back through how many SPOTY's haven't in fact won in the relevant year? Presumably some?
I mean, one ought to mention Joe Root this year whose personal batting performance has been sensational. But the England cricket team as a whole have been pretty awful so there's very little chance of Joe winning SPOTY. The Ashes will come too late but then we stand very little chance down under in my opinion.
The last person to win SPoTY without actually winning something at their sport that year, was Ryan Giggs.
After which, the BBC changed the rules and now they nominate a shortlist for the public vote.
Edit: If Raducanu loses the final, will the BBC even nominate her over an Olympic gold medalist?
One of my mates, who normally bets in tenners, had a grand on Jenson Button, or the big fav who was a raving driver anyway, that year at about EVS.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
This also changes the focus a bit. The low IT rate - 20% - has always been the politicians headline figure to prove how low taxes are. It has always been false of course but it is ceasing to work.
Okay then: the headline should be: "UK is preparing to become the first country to "mix and match" working coronavirus vaccines through its booster programme."
What? Canada did mix-n-match of AZ and Pfizer for 1st and 2nd doses starting in June or thereabouts.
Didn't various European countries do mix and match when they had their AZ moments?
I seem to recall that Merkel ended up with two doses of different vaccines...
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
Winning is important. I haven't the time or inclination to trace back through how many SPOTY's haven't in fact won in the relevant year? Presumably some?
I mean, one ought to mention Joe Root this year whose personal batting performance has been sensational. But the England cricket team as a whole have been pretty awful so there's very little chance of Joe winning SPOTY. The Ashes will come too late but then we stand very little chance down under in my opinion.
The last person to win SPoTY without actually winning something at their sport that year, was Ryan Giggs.
After which, the BBC changed the rules and now they nominate a shortlist for the public vote.
Edit: If Raducanu loses the final, will the BBC even nominate her over an Olympic gold medalist?
One of my mates, who normally bets in tenners, had a grand on Jenson Button, or the big fav who was a raving driver anyway, that year at about EVS.
Yes, Jenson Button. 2009, he was the most unexpected world champion and the clear favourite - before the Man Untited fans bombed the competition.
I think a bit of wait and see will be needed. I agree with the rest of the universe that when Boris's wheels come off it will happen bigly but not sure yet that this is it.
Compared with the poll tax the actual sums involved in this change for individuals is not great, though of course it is unfairly distributed.
I wonder if the larger issue is that the social care system changes will be judged inadequate.
As to 'the party of low tax', there isn't one. No party is presenting a programme of small state. Whether we like it or not a world of universal free education, NHS, state pensions and a benefits support system means a socialist state, and more so as people get more ill, more old, there remain a significant proportion of dysfunctional families and unemployable people, and young people stay in education for ever.
A costed Philip Thompson analysis of what a small state, low tax society will look like starting from where we actually are would be worth a read. Any chance?
A small state society wouldn’t have had as harsh a lockdown or paid so much furlough would it? Right from the start of lockdown/furlough people said we’d get a huge bill for it at the end, and here it is
Yes, small state low tax politics died with the pandemic, at least for the foreseeable.
*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
And someone called Boris Johnson would lose his seat. Looking at the seat list of Tory losses on this prospect suggests that there is much to play for, that Labour have lost their non big city heartland, and that even with this Tory massacre Labour are nowhere close to a majority.
Is Labour really going to win Kenneth Clarke's old seat?
Doubt it, somehow. Looking through the list of changes, striking that the Conservatives would hold two of the three seats in Stoke-on-Trent. Quite a sea change.
"We want this better funded. We support more taxes."
"Ok, your income tax is rising by-"
"NO!!! More taxes on people who aren't me!"
This is a popular meme and in normal times perhaps has some merit.
However thanks to soaring QE, a government policy not their hard work or entrepreneurship, the richest 1% now own 23% of the country. Absolutely and unapologetically, when new revenue is needed, I want a government policy to redress the windfall gain of QE and tax them more.
The polls leading upto the new tax all indicated that across all ages there was wide support for a specific tax increase for the NHS
The issue I have with Boris and Rishi is not so much the introduction of a hypothecated NHS and social care tax, but that it was too narrowly applied and created an instant unfair narrative
Boris, but especially Rishi should have seen this and I just cannot understand why they thought it was a good idea to apply a tax that in the first place raises insufficient money for social care but to delay it until 2023 with the obvious response 'why do I have to wait'
The antenna of Boris and Rishi was so poor they did not see that increasing tax, especially on the young but also taking away the £20 a week UC uplift was immoral and because of it I have lost my faith in Rishi, (I already had with Boris) and this has opened the door wide for Starmer to walk through
Is he up to it ?
The next vote for me is GE24 and in my constituency it is a straight fight between conservative and labour, lib dems is a wasted vote, so can Starmer do a Blair to enable me to vote for him
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
The public vote aspect of SPOTY, or the way it's now done, means Emma's chances increase in my opinion. I know that sports like cycling have a huge (and deserved) niche vote but we probably ought to remember that Emma ticks just about every single BBC box going and then some.
As a woman, she'll garner a lot of support from women and quite a lot of support from men who would find her, erm, quite telegenic. I know I know but some men are like that.
Anyway enough from me on this for now. Certainly not nailed on but if she wins I think she's absolutely odds-on.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
It won’t get much traction with non graduates. And what’s with this new thing of adding money that students borrowed to their tax bill as if they’re victim of some trick? No one made them go to University
Um, for the last 20 years - the default recommendation for clever people at school is 6 form followed by Uni. Remember the teachers went to uni so they can't imagine or know of different paths.
Going for and getting a decent apprenticeship is frowned upon. A friend of my twin B got the local GSK logistics degree apprenticeship. Instead of being congratulated by the teachers 2 seperate ones asked why did he go for that instead of going to Warwick as he had planned? Um - because it's a degree apprenticeship so he earns £19k a year while still doing a degree.
One reason why twin b went for her apprenticeship was that I knew they existed from working at BAE years ago. If I hadn't known that fact she wouldn't have known (and nor would the person above) that such things existed.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
Agreed. My point is, what would the impact have been in the alternate universe where NI was kept as it was, and the tax raid was on the retired?
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
Depends if the Orange-bookers win the fight for the LD's soul. The entirety of the economically liberal portion of the population is homeless, so if they go for some unobjectionable middle of the road social stuff and drop the EU flagshagging there could be an opening.
If Davey goes Orange Book then my vote is up for grabs.
He is / we are. Progressive, small-G green, an innovation-led enterprise economy.
Come on in. Would be piss funny if me and thee were in the same party. Whoever would we hammer away at if we were colleagues
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
If she wins the US Open I can't see her not being Spoty. Good chance even if she doesn't. It's the biggest Brit sporting story for ages.
Emma certainly has a chance and will surely be nominated but the SPotY market is thin and overreacts to recent events.
Betfair price graphs show the following traded below 3.5 (or 5/2 in old money):- Jason Kenny, last matched at 19.5 Laura Kenny, last matched at 55 Lewis Hamilton, last matched at 44 Mark Cavendish, last matched at 60
So that's at least four candidates who traded short but are now out with the washing.
The US Open takes place in the middle of the night on a fringe internet channel rather than proper telly. Who will have seen it? Against that, it would be no surprise to see Raducanu pick up some tv advertising. So it's possible but remember Andy Murray, who has won SPotY three times. In 2012 Murray won gold at the London Olympics as well as the US Open. He did not win SPotY until the following year when he won Wimbledon.
I suspect you're flogging a dead horse here.
'Fringe internet channel' is a bit passe to be honest and the 'rather than proper telly' is hilariously old-fashioned. I mean, really truly do you mean what you've written there? Hilarious in this internet age when so many people stream or watch on catch-up. Some Amazon Prime shows are big. As an aside, I thoroughly recommend Clarkson's Farm by the way: wonderful series.
Anyway, Emma's all over the media this morning, literally the lead news headline on BBC and Sky as well as the Mail which is a huge outlet.
In terms of people watching, I suspect the final will attract quite large numbers but it doesn't really matter how many people watch it live. When the BBC present SPOTY if (and it's a big if) she wins the US open, they will make a massive thing of it on the show. The BBC love their tennis: they don't own the rights to Wimbledon for no reason. Many of the movers and shakers in their sports coverage are big fans.
It's a big story. A very big story. That creates its own momentum. She's a thoroughly likeable person, who was sitting her A levels in May. She had an awful time under the spotlights at Wimbledon, so to bounce back like this is a wonderful 'feel good' story which is exactly what everyone needs right now.
She's not nailed on for SPOTY, especially if she doesn't win. But if she does then in my opinion she's right to be the odds-on favourite.
is there any chance the BBC could buy the rights from Amazon to also show the final? I think they might have done in the past for an event they weren't covering but where Andy Murray reached the final.
Was wondering the same.
Not sure that doing business with Bezos is a good idea at the moment. He appears to be losing the plot in a rather epic manner.
The polls leading upto the new tax all indicated that across all ages there was wide support for a specific tax increase for the NHS
The issue I have with Boris and Rishi is not so much the introduction of a hypothecated NHS and social care tax, but that it was too narrowly applied and created an instant unfair narrative
Boris, but especially Rishi should have seen this and I just cannot understand why they thought it was a good idea to apply a tax that in the first place raises insufficient money for social care but to delay it until 2023 with the obvious response 'why do I have to wait'
The antenna of Boris and Rishi was so poor they did not see that increasing tax, especially on the young but also taking away the £20 a week UC uplift was immoral and because of it I have lost my faith in Rishi, (I already had with Boris) and this has opened the door wide for Starmer to walk through
Is he up to it ?
The next vote for me is GE24 and in my constituency it is a straight fight between conservative and labour, lib dems is a wasted vote, so can Starmer do a Blair to enable me to vote for him
Boris has spent his whole life getting away with stuff that would bring other people down. Like being useless, indecisive, and late with everything.
Doubtless he thought he could get away with looking after pensioners on the basis that few people understand how NI works.
Whether Rishi is clever and thought that Boris would cop the blame if the package unravelled, or not so clever and didn’t see the possibility that it might, is an interesting question.
Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.
To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.
If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.
Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.
To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.
If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.
Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.
South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
If you cannot afford to buy the average house where you live then you are not middle class.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
This business about people saying in advance that they were happy to pay more tax was surely, surely, one of those classic leading question polls?
Very few people are going to say that they don't want to chip in to help the NHS or to pay for social care. You just don't really answer 'no' to that, especially when put on the spot. You've got to be Dan Hannan to stick your neck out and tell a pollster you'd rather pocket your cash than help others.
But you bite into people's pay packet and the mood soon changes bloody fast.
When you add in the fact that Johnson's bound to blow a lot of it on tory cronies and bureaucrats (as per yesterday) or that the way this looks is that hard working people are funding richer older people or that instead of rewarding care workers we're taxing them instead etc. etc. etc. and this looks like one of the WORST political fiscal decisions of my lifetime. I put it on a par with the poll tax, maybe worse.
Further proof that while people may say they're willing to pay more for the NHS in reality what they mean is that they're willing for other people to pay more for the NHS.
The next vote for me is GE24 and in my constituency it is a straight fight between conservative and labour, lib dems is a wasted vote, so can Starmer do a Blair to enable me to vote for him
sunak putting a £1.5m swimming pool on one of his houses while the fabulously wealthy mrs rishi had two companies going bust owing the taxpayers 600 grand hasnt gone unnoticed.
Okay then: the headline should be: "UK is preparing to become the first country to "mix and match" working coronavirus vaccines through its booster programme."
What? Canada did mix-n-match of AZ and Pfizer for 1st and 2nd doses starting in June or thereabouts.
It was *meant* to be a joke about one of the UAE jabs being Sinopharm ...
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.
South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.
Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Lets be honest about this - we should support strategic industry like this so that we can produce things we need here and export them rather than having to buy from somewhere else. But the Tories don't because fuck business, the only value is what the spivs can raise in selling it off.
Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.
To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.
If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.
Agree with some of that but ... "I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions". You serious?
This may be an example of the gov being taken in by its own focus groups? I'd hesitate before taking much notice of one poll though.
*Also highest REF/BXP have polled since December 2020*
And here’s why the whole result wasn’t announced last night.
Utterly disgraceful.
I wouldn't be surprised if REFUK are on 10% within 6 months.
What does it tell us, politically? Conservatives have alienated supporters but Labour remain unconvincing so is RefUK really NOTA or is there something Brexity going on? Earlier in this thread @IanB2 suggested pet-owners were frustrated by post-Brexit problems, and there are also empty shelves in supermarkets.
The government announced tax rises this week. This clearly upset some people who had previously been saying Con to the pollsters. But it’s clear that Labour aren’t capitalising as they might have.
While a vote switching to Labour or Lib Dem is twice as good as a switch to REFUK*, it all helps demolish that Tory majority.
*do they even have policies?
How many seats will they contest? For months people have been combining the Labour and Green vote, yet they deluded themselves into thinking this is anything other than mid-term noise.
The Tories could lose the next election (i.e. be out of office), but that poll changes nothing.
If a Tory voter is pissed off because they wanted a low tax party where are they going to go?
As @Philip_Thompson suggested earlier on this thread, there is now an opportunity for Labour to seize the low tax mantle, although that might involve Keir Starmer announcing a policy.
Arent they too reliant on Public Sector workers to head down the small government route?
Who said anything about small government? There is certainly room to cancel the NI increase because we've done without it up to now. There is probably room to cut the base (not higher) rate of income tax and/or VAT (using our post-Brexit freedom). The aim would be to stimulate economic growth, not choke it off with tax rises and spending cuts.
The beauty from the Labour Party point of view is that there will be significant benefit to the national coffers from the tax rise over the next two years, so there will be scope for Reeves to remove it in a post 2024 GE budget.
The amount going into social care is trivial before October 2023.
Only by creating a big deficit in the process and leading to higher interest rates.
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
And someone called Boris Johnson would lose his seat. Looking at the seat list of Tory losses on this prospect suggests that there is much to play for, that Labour have lost their non big city heartland, and that even with this Tory massacre Labour are nowhere close to a majority.
Is Labour really going to win Kenneth Clarke's old seat?
Doubt it, somehow. Looking through the list of changes, striking that the Conservatives would hold two of the three seats in Stoke-on-Trent. Quite a sea change.
If you've been to Stoke-on-Trent is also very curious. My parents went earlier this year (to visit a friend and the Wedgewood collection), to describe the area as poor and run down would be an serious understatement.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.
Mr. Above, I must've missed the policy of giving trillions to the so-called 1%.
I do support more house building, lower migration, and cheaper houses, and moving the burden (relatively) from the shrinking and working age group to the growing and non-working group.
We already don't save enough in this country. Windfall taxes punish people on a whim for the sin of achieving success. The politics of envy is an ugly thing, and we need less of it, not more.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
If you cannot afford to buy the average house where you live then you are not middle class.
The average house near me is about £900k. Plenty of middle class here who can't afford anything like that.
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
Edit... I added in a cheeky 2 quid on Rashford at 219/1.
Mr. Above, I must've missed the policy of giving trillions to the so-called 1%.
I do support more house building, lower migration, and cheaper houses, and moving the burden (relatively) from the shrinking and working age group to the growing and non-working group.
We already don't save enough in this country. Windfall taxes punish people on a whim for the sin of achieving success. The politics of envy is an ugly thing, and we need less of it, not more.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Lets be honest about this - we should support strategic industry like this so that we can produce things we need here and export them rather than having to buy from somewhere else. But the Tories don't because fuck business, the only value is what the spivs can raise in selling it off.
If we are being brutally honest - Cleveland Bridge suffered from years (probably 40+) of under investment to the point that it just isn't productive enough compared to elsewhere.
There is a story here but its one that can be applied to most of the UK where companies have used cheap labour as a substitute for capital investment until the inevitable end results occurs.
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
Give me some of that!
I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.
South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.
Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Surrey, Oxfordshire and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.
Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.
Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.
To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.
If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.
Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.
This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
To pay for what?
a) the NHS, b) social care, c) some of the pandemic costs?
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
If you cannot afford to buy the average house where you live then you are not middle class.
The average house near me is about £900k. Plenty of middle class here who can't afford anything like that.
Then they're not middle class.
They might have middle class parents, a middle class education and a middle class job but in reality they are white collar proles - the fruits of whose labour will be enriching others.
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Given women normally don't win...
I think that has more to do with the fact that there really haven't been that many successful individual British sportswomen on the international stage.
Which is why this is even more of a buy not a lay.
Tom's is the other story which may win SPOTY.
Whoever wins will, I think, be a feel good winner. So if Emma wins the US Open she will win SPOTY. But Tom's story is also a very good one.
The only way to fix the HGV shortage problem is to admit that it's caused by Brexit. But the government can't do that, so instead we're forced to live in a make-believe world in which Brexit is perfect and the supply system is degrading around us.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.
South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.
Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.
Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.
“Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.
Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.
AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class. HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.
South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.
Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.
Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.
But surely - surely - it makes more sense to have a situation in which people can afford houses because houses are affordable than a situation where many people can afford houses because they have inherited from their grandparents, who are wealthy because houses are now unaffordable?
I think a bit of wait and see will be needed. I agree with the rest of the universe that when Boris's wheels come off it will happen bigly but not sure yet that this is it.
Compared with the poll tax the actual sums involved in this change for individuals is not great, though of course it is unfairly distributed.
I wonder if the larger issue is that the social care system changes will be judged inadequate.
As to 'the party of low tax', there isn't one. No party is presenting a programme of small state. Whether we like it or not a world of universal free education, NHS, state pensions and a benefits support system means a socialist state, and more so as people get more ill, more old, there remain a significant proportion of dysfunctional families and unemployable people, and young people stay in education for ever.
A costed Philip Thompson analysis of what a small state, low tax society will look like starting from where we actually are would be worth a read. Any chance?
That is probably the biggest issue.
The tax kicks in on April 2022 and the next election will be in November 2023 / May 2024 by which time the General Public will be expecting service improvements that simply won't have had time to be implemented (especially as the sector isn't getting any money until April 2023).
I am sure when Boris puts on the hi-viz and crashes a fork truck through a branch of IKEA all will be forgiven. Otherwise, war with Argentina it is then!
On a deadly serious note, the promise of a referendum on the reintroduction of capital punishment for nonces might swing the pendulum back to Johnson.
ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.
Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair
A win is a win.
I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.
Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.
To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.
If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.
Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.
This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
To pay for what?
a) the NHS, b) social care, c) some of the pandemic costs?
Mostly a mix of a and c which are heavily correlated. A sliver for b. However in practical terms social care will be more underfunded by the time of the election than it is now, as wages will have to rise to attract and retain staff faster than new money comes in.
ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.
Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair
A win is a win.
I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.
I backed a draw in this series so I'm not in a dark place.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
What idiot MPs send in letters at the first whiff of unpopularity? Its like they have no idea governments do go behind from time to time, in fact it used to be the norm.
The only way to fix the HGV shortage problem is to admit that it's caused by Brexit. But the government can't do that, so instead we're forced to live in a make-believe world in which Brexit is perfect and the supply system is degrading around us.
Are the driver shortages in Germany and the USA also caused by Brexit? How’s about global container shipping prices being double the historic rates, and a massive shortage of computers and cars because of computer chip supply issues - all also caused by Brexit?
The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:- 2.2 Emma Raducanu 2.48 Tom Daley 8.2 Jason Kenny 8.2 Adam Peaty 15 Lewis Hamilton 26 bar
LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
Give me some of that!
I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.
If you can match your words with relevant odds ...
You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.
Comments
If Labour do not spend more in government (which requires higher taxes) then they would lose even more votes to the Greens on their left.
Though on this poll Sturgeon and Blackford would in effect be Kingmakers and control PM Starmer, Labour would be on 283 seats with the 55 SNP MPs giving Labour its majority and driving the show
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=35&LIB=10&Reform=5&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
Mr. F, aye. Who'd be a politician?
"We want this better funded. We support more taxes."
"Ok, your income tax is rising by-"
"NO!!! More taxes on people who aren't me!"
Compared with the poll tax the actual sums involved in this change for individuals is not great, though of course it is unfairly distributed.
I wonder if the larger issue is that the social care system changes will be judged inadequate.
As to 'the party of low tax', there isn't one. No party is presenting a programme of small state. Whether we like it or not a world of universal free education, NHS, state pensions and a benefits support system means a socialist state, and more so as people get more ill, more old, there remain a significant proportion of dysfunctional families and unemployable people, and young people stay in education for ever.
A costed Philip Thompson analysis of what a small state, low tax society will look like starting from where we actually are would be worth a read. Any chance?
I’m not sure there’s much more sport to come now, but do note that the last F1 race of the season is currently scheduled to be on the same day as the SPoTY show. Which will screw up my on-the-night betting, as I have tickets for it!
I suspect Emma wins SPOTY if she wins on Saturday otherwise it will be Tom.
'Fringe internet channel' is a bit passe to be honest and the 'rather than proper telly' is hilariously old-fashioned. I mean, really truly do you mean what you've written there? Hilarious in this internet age when so many people stream or watch on catch-up. Some Amazon Prime shows are big. As an aside, I thoroughly recommend Clarkson's Farm by the way: wonderful series.
Anyway, Emma's all over the media this morning, literally the lead news headline on BBC and Sky as well as the Mail which is a huge outlet.
In terms of people watching, I suspect the final will attract quite large numbers but it doesn't really matter how many people watch it live. When the BBC present SPOTY if (and it's a big if) she wins the US open, they will make a massive thing of it on the show. The BBC love their tennis: they don't own the rights to Wimbledon for no reason. Many of the movers and shakers in their sports coverage are big fans.
It's a big story. A very big story. That creates its own momentum. She's a thoroughly likeable person, who was sitting her A levels in May. She had an awful time under the spotlights at Wimbledon, so to bounce back like this is a wonderful 'feel good' story which is exactly what everyone needs right now.
She's not nailed on for SPOTY, especially if she doesn't win. But if she does then in my opinion she's right to be the odds-on favourite.
One difference between her story and the Olympians is that not only is her success so completely unexpected but people are invested in her journey now in a way that hasn't happened for the various Olympians to the same extent.
From Wimbledon to this she's being talked about for days and weeks at a time. Whereas for the Olympians most were spoken about for a day or so then the conversation moved on for the next one.
Plus she seems to have an immense PR team. Or the media just love her. Sky were referring after her QF win to this being a "fairytale in New York" if that tagline catches on, given the nation's love for that song, and the fact SPOTY is in December ... It's a genius association.
The last women's British tennis champion at Wimbledon was, of course, Virginia Wade in The Queen's silver jubilee year 1977.
Emma is going to be very much in the focus next Wimbledon for the platinum jubilee year.
The tax kicks in on April 2022 and the next election will be in November 2023 / May 2024 by which time the General Public will be expecting service improvements that simply won't have had time to be implemented (especially as the sector isn't getting any money until April 2023).
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
As was said last night this is covid and not to do with Brexit
Also to @Sandpit for exploiting the spoty opportunity.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=41.3&LIB=10&Reform=5&Green=2.7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
However if REF fell back too to the 2% that voted BXP in 2019 with the remaining 3% going back to the Tories, then Labour would only be on 298 seats even with all those votes regained from the Greens and Labour and the LDs combined would only be on 314 ie still short of the 326 needed for a majority. So Labour would again be reliant on the SNP for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=36&LAB=41.3&LIB=10&Reform=5&Green=2.7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
Is Labour really going to win Kenneth Clarke's old seat?
Money certainly is needed to clear the backlogs, but money can only do so much, the critical thing is shortages of capacity in theatres and outpatients, particularly in personnel. That cannot be wished away with a flash of the chequebook. Staff are depleted, exhausted and demoralised after 18 months of covid. Overtime and moonlighting can only go so far.
Verstappen needs a new engine at some point which will put him on the back foot at at least one event, and the COVID situation means fewer races.
I mean, one ought to mention Joe Root this year whose personal batting performance has been sensational. But the England cricket team as a whole have been pretty awful so there's very little chance of Joe winning SPOTY. The Ashes will come too late but then we stand very little chance down under in my opinion.
Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.
Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...
Today, Denmark lifted all restrictions & COVID-19 is no longer deemed a "societal threat".
I led the country's largest behavioral covid-project (@HopeProject_dk) & advised the Danish gov.
Here are my thoughts on how DK got here, what can be learned & what lies ahead.
Thread (1/14)
https://twitter.com/M_B_Petersen/status/1436193837744107523?s=20
UK comes out of it not too badly...
https://twitter.com/exCameramanJim/status/1436230920634343426
After which, the BBC changed the rules and now they nominate a shortlist for the public vote.
Edit: If Raducanu loses the final, will the BBC even nominate her over an Olympic gold medalist?
Rushcliffe was Remain so now a top Labour target. However the prospect of a Labour government reliant on the SNP would enable Boris to replay the card with Starmer Cameron played with Ed Miliband and Salmond in 2015
Tax is stupidly high.
I seem to recall that Merkel ended up with two doses of different vaccines...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57571791
Moderna on top of AZ.....
No 52% Yes 48%
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1436211800865918977?s=20
However thanks to soaring QE, a government policy not their hard work or entrepreneurship, the richest 1% now own 23% of the country. Absolutely and unapologetically, when new revenue is needed, I want a government policy to redress the windfall gain of QE and tax them more.
The polls leading upto the new tax all indicated that across all ages there was wide support for a specific tax increase for the NHS
The issue I have with Boris and Rishi is not so much the introduction of a hypothecated NHS and social care tax, but that it was too narrowly applied and created an instant unfair narrative
Boris, but especially Rishi should have seen this and I just cannot understand why they thought it was a good idea to apply a tax that in the first place raises insufficient money for social care but to delay it until 2023 with the obvious response 'why do I have to wait'
The antenna of Boris and Rishi was so poor they did not see that increasing tax, especially on the young but also taking away the £20 a week UC uplift was immoral and because of it I have lost my faith in Rishi, (I already had with Boris) and this has opened the door wide for Starmer to walk through
Is he up to it ?
The next vote for me is GE24 and in my constituency it is a straight fight between conservative and labour, lib dems is a wasted vote, so can Starmer do a Blair to enable me to vote for him
Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
As a woman, she'll garner a lot of support from women and quite a lot of support from men who would find her, erm, quite telegenic. I know I know but some men are like that.
Anyway enough from me on this for now. Certainly not nailed on but if she wins I think she's absolutely odds-on.
Going for and getting a decent apprenticeship is frowned upon. A friend of my twin B got the local GSK logistics degree apprenticeship. Instead of being congratulated by the teachers 2 seperate ones asked why did he go for that instead of going to Warwick as he had planned? Um - because it's a degree apprenticeship so he earns £19k a year while still doing a degree.
One reason why twin b went for her apprenticeship was that I knew they existed from working at BAE years ago. If I hadn't known that fact she wouldn't have known (and nor would the person above) that such things existed.
Come on in. Would be piss funny if me and thee were in the same party. Whoever would we hammer away at if we were colleagues
Button losing to Giggs (it was 2009, I think) was bloody ridiculous.
Mr. Above, disagree with your conclusion. Taxing the elderly/non-working more is the way but wealth taxes are the work of Satan*.
Edited extra bit: *and socialism. But I repeat myself.
Doubtless he thought he could get away with looking after pensioners on the basis that few people understand how NI works.
Whether Rishi is clever and thought that Boris would cop the blame if the package unravelled, or not so clever and didn’t see the possibility that it might, is an interesting question.
To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.
If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.
This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
Very few people are going to say that they don't want to chip in to help the NHS or to pay for social care. You just don't really answer 'no' to that, especially when put on the spot. You've got to be Dan Hannan to stick your neck out and tell a pollster you'd rather pocket your cash than help others.
But you bite into people's pay packet and the mood soon changes bloody fast.
When you add in the fact that Johnson's bound to blow a lot of it on tory cronies and bureaucrats (as per yesterday) or that the way this looks is that hard working people are funding richer older people or that instead of rewarding care workers we're taxing them instead etc. etc. etc. and this looks like one of the WORST political fiscal decisions of my lifetime. I put it on a par with the poll tax, maybe worse.
Drawn series, England don't lose the series.
ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.
The 5th test has been called off
Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
Lets be honest about this - we should support strategic industry like this so that we can produce things we need here and export them rather than having to buy from somewhere else. But the Tories don't because fuck business, the only value is what the spivs can raise in selling it off.
This may be an example of the gov being taken in by its own focus groups? I'd hesitate before taking much notice of one poll though.
I do support more house building, lower migration, and cheaper houses, and moving the burden (relatively) from the shrinking and working age group to the growing and non-working group.
We already don't save enough in this country. Windfall taxes punish people on a whim for the sin of achieving success. The politics of envy is an ugly thing, and we need less of it, not more.
Edit... I added in a cheeky 2 quid on Rashford at 219/1.
There is a story here but its one that can be applied to most of the UK where companies have used cheap labour as a substitute for capital investment until the inevitable end results occurs.
I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.
a) the NHS, b) social care, c) some of the pandemic costs?
They might have middle class parents, a middle class education and a middle class job but in reality they are white collar proles - the fruits of whose labour will be enriching others.
Which is why this is even more of a buy not a lay.
Tom's is the other story which may win SPOTY.
Whoever wins will, I think, be a feel good winner. So if Emma wins the US Open she will win SPOTY. But Tom's story is also a very good one.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/hgv-driver-shortage-uk-government-fix-lorry-crisis-caused-brexit-1191706
AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.
It is all nonsense.
On a deadly serious note, the promise of a referendum on the reintroduction of capital punishment for nonces might swing the pendulum back to Johnson.
But no refund for transport/hotel costs.
There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.
Logistics is screwed up everywhere at the moment.
If you can match your words with relevant odds ...
You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.
You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.
But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.
Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.
And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.