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Labour have their first opinion poll lead since January – politicalbetting.com

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  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    “Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.
    Mr Sandpit, why do you go in for making up lies about the Lib Dems?

    Just wondering....
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_xP said:

    The only way to fix the HGV shortage problem is to admit that it's caused by Brexit. But the government can't do that, so instead we're forced to live in a make-believe world in which Brexit is perfect and the supply system is degrading around us.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/hgv-driver-shortage-uk-government-fix-lorry-crisis-caused-brexit-1191706

    It's not caused by Brexit - it's caused by years of low pay, utterly appalling treatment by customers and underinvestment in training which combined made the job undesirable for a lot of people.

    Imported EU working masked the issue but there has been staffing issues in logistics for decades and Brexit / Covid has simply made it more obvious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Shame. India are the better team but theres been some good tight games.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Further proof that while people may say they're willing to pay more for the NHS in reality what they mean is that they're willing for other people to pay more for the NHS.

    Yes, possibly my favourite polls ever - as it backs up something else - political tribalists care more about their team being in power than policies they like being enacted
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.

    If you can match your words with relevant odds ...

    You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.
    I’m offering better odds than Betfair at the moment ;)

    She wasn’t a finalist a few days ago, when people were ramping her. If she wins the US Open then maybe she’s a contender, if not she has no chance.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2021
    isam said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    It won’t get much traction with non graduates. And what’s with this new thing of adding money that students borrowed to their tax bill as if they’re victim of some trick? No one made them go to University
    I suspect because it functionally looks like a tax and not a standard loan.

    The repayments comes straight out of your pay packet and it is in proportional to how much you earn.

    Student Loans are a contribution capped, time limited graduate tax in all but name.
  • Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way to fix the HGV shortage problem is to admit that it's caused by Brexit. But the government can't do that, so instead we're forced to live in a make-believe world in which Brexit is perfect and the supply system is degrading around us.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/hgv-driver-shortage-uk-government-fix-lorry-crisis-caused-brexit-1191706

    Are the driver shortages in Germany and the USA also caused by Brexit? How’s about global container shipping prices being double the historic rates, and a massive shortage of computers and cars because of computer chip supply issues - all also caused by Brexit?

    Logistics is screwed up everywhere at the moment.
    Scott's answer to a driver shortage caused by pay being too low for a decade is ... lower pay for drivers.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The only way to fix the HGV shortage problem is to admit that it's caused by Brexit. But the government can't do that, so instead we're forced to live in a make-believe world in which Brexit is perfect and the supply system is degrading around us.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/hgv-driver-shortage-uk-government-fix-lorry-crisis-caused-brexit-1191706

    You never relent your biased and prejudiced views. To provide PB with balance you should read this

    https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/labour-shortage-deepens-in-germany-and-the-uk-49461
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    In most Northern and Midlands cities eg Manchester and Birmingham homes are nowhere near £900k and affordable for graduates.

    Alan Sugar or Liam Gallagher or David Beckham for example on the other side may be middle class indeed super rich class by wealth but they are working class by education and background
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Heathener said:

    This business about people saying in advance that they were happy to pay more tax was surely, surely, one of those classic leading question polls?

    Very few people are going to say that they don't want to chip in to help the NHS or to pay for social care. You just don't really answer 'no' to that, especially when put on the spot. You've got to be Dan Hannan to stick your neck out and tell a pollster you'd rather pocket your cash than help others.

    But you bite into people's pay packet and the mood soon changes bloody fast.

    When you add in the fact that Johnson's bound to blow a lot of it on tory cronies and bureaucrats (as per yesterday) or that the way this looks is that hard working people are funding richer older people or that instead of rewarding care workers we're taxing them instead etc. etc. etc. and this looks like one of the WORST political fiscal decisions of my lifetime. I put it on a par with the poll tax, maybe worse.

    Wait and see. The degree of inequality in the poll tax was massive compared with this. Fiscally this week is a tiny change in an already high tax system, and makes little change in the system itself. The politics and the optics will be the determining factors rather than the inherent unfairness, which is factually minor compared with poll tax. Though that doesn't stop it being a political catastrophe of course if Tories continue to mess up.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited September 2021
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

    Edit... I added in a cheeky 2 quid on Rashford at 219/1.
    She is odds-on to win the final. If she does then she has a great chance for SPOTY on paper but does/will she have the media presence to keep in the public eye which presumably Daley has? (Daley must have - though it's passed me by - or why else would he be favourite? If it was on sporting achievement alone I think Peaty would be favourite (and don't forget his profile is about to get a boost in Come Dancing).)

    I'm going to wait until she wins the final then lay her for SPOTY I think.
  • Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.

    If you can match your words with relevant odds ...

    You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.
    To be fair to @Sandpit, he could just lay Emma (ho ho ho!) on Betfair. It's interesting that her odds for SPoTY are almost identical to her odds to win the final of the US Open. I think she has to win to have any chance of winning SPoTY, so if I were inclined to bet on this I'd just back her to win the final. But I won't, because I suspect the odds are shorter than they should be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited September 2021
    What I don't understand is how playing increases the Indian team's risk above their bubble ?
    They've all got to get a flight home - bit more of a danger regarding Covid than being out in the middle.
    They can eat socially distanced sandwiches for lunch..
    Open the windows on their bus or all get ubers to the ground.. get changed in the car etc etc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Are the ticket-holders going to be as screwed as the Belgian Grand Prix fans?
    No, they'd get a refund.

    But no refund for transport/hotel costs.

    There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.
    Does Lancashire have insurance for all the F&B that’s going in the bin, and all the staff costs they’ve run up this week setting things up for the match?


  • The YouGov tables are out.

    Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

    Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
    Green: 9% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (+2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

    Edit... I added in a cheeky 2 quid on Rashford at 219/1.
    She is odds-on to win the final. If she does then she has a great chance for SPOTY on paper but does/will she have the media presence to keep in the public eye which presumably Daley has? (Daley must have - though it's passed me by - or why else would he be favourite? If it was on sporting achievement alone I think Peaty would be favourite).

    I'm going to wait until she wins the final then lay her for SPOTY I think.
    Daley has a story. It was his fourth Olympic games and finally he has a gold medal.

    Personally I think Max Whitlock's achievement is better than Peaty's, though either would be worthy winners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2021
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    “Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.
    If you live in the South and your parents and grandparents also live in the South and own their own home then over half of that group will get a sizeable inheritance.

    Hence most voters in the South are anti inheritance tax and anti dementia tax but also anti building to much in the greenbelt (but outside London they also want tighter controls on immigration too)
  • David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

    Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

    Do 31%

    Do not 53%
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    In most Northern and Midlands cities eg Manchester and Birmingham homes are nowhere near £900k and affordable for graduates.

    Alan Sugar or Liam Gallagher or David Beckham for example on the other side may be middle class indeed super rich class by wealth but they are working class by education and background
    Really I didn't know any of that, thanks for enlightening me. Still both statements are nonsense. Plenty of working class graduates, and plenty of middle class, whether graduates or not, who can't afford their local average house.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    In most Northern and Midlands cities eg Manchester and Birmingham homes are nowhere near £900k and affordable for graduates.

    Alan Sugar or Liam Gallagher or David Beckham for example on the other side may be middle class indeed super rich class by wealth but they are working class by education and background
    BTW I can understand (speaking from clog wearing north where houses cost about 17/6d) why folks in London who can't buy a million pound bed sit in East Grim don't vote Tory, but what exactly is the Labour/Green/LD policy which gives them all a house where they happen to want it?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2021
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    But surely - surely - it makes more sense to have a situation in which people can afford houses because houses are affordable than a situation where many people can afford houses because they have inherited from their grandparents, who are wealthy because houses are now unaffordable?
    Only way to do that and make houses in London and the Home Counties affordable is ban all foreign property investment in London and severely restrict immigration to London and the South East to reduce demand.

    Then ensure all new houses that are built are affordable homes and only available to first time buyers who have lived in the area for 7 years or more to ensure more supply for local young people on average incomes who need it
  • Pulpstar said:

    What I don't understand is how playing increases the Indian team's risk above their bubble ?
    They've all got to get a flight home - bit more of a danger regarding Covid than being out in the middle.
    They can eat socially distanced sandwiches for lunch..
    Open the windows on their bus or all get ubers to the ground.. get changed in the car etc etc

    The cynic in me says this is more to do with the fact the IPL resumes shortly.

    The fact is one of the physios has it and that has upset a few dynamics.
  • isam said:

    A Farage-less Reform/Brexit/UKIP won’t get anywhere. He is the only politician of that ilk with mass appeal. He could make a come back though I suppose

    I agree with that. Richard Tice is the leader of Reform - how many of the public know that? He ain't no Nigel. And then there's Laurence Fox...... I suspect Reform's attitude to Covid (anti-lockdown, mildly anti-vaxx) won't play well with many people either.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.

    Edit... I added in a cheeky 2 quid on Rashford at 219/1.
    She is odds-on to win the final. If she does then she has a great chance for SPOTY on paper but does/will she have the media presence to keep in the public eye which presumably Daley has? (Daley must have - though it's passed me by - or why else would he be favourite? If it was on sporting achievement alone I think Peaty would be favourite).

    I'm going to wait until she wins the final then lay her for SPOTY I think.
    She certainly has a chance, but don't think anyone should be odds on at this stage.
    And then there's the fact that a woman hasn't won since 2006. There may also be a lot of sympathy for the Olympics winners who were delayed due to COVID.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Are the ticket-holders going to be as screwed as the Belgian Grand Prix fans?
    No, they'd get a refund.

    But no refund for transport/hotel costs.

    There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.
    Does Lancashire have insurance for all the F&B that’s going in the bin, and all the staff costs they’ve run up this week setting things up for the match?
    Pass. I suspect in a post Covid-19 world the insurance on Covid-19 related cancellations will either be very high or with a ridiculous excess.

    I suspect the ECB will take the hit for Lancashire then try and recoup it from the BCCI.

    Turns out India are back next summer for a white ball series, it isn't hard to envisage a few more matches are added and to be played at Old Trafford.
  • HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    But surely - surely - it makes more sense to have a situation in which people can afford houses because houses are affordable than a situation where many people can afford houses because they have inherited from their grandparents, who are wealthy because houses are now unaffordable?
    Only way to do that and make houses in London and the Home Counties affordable is ban all foreign property investment in London and severely restrict immigration to London and the South East to reduce demand.

    Then ensure all new houses that are built are affordable homes and only available to first time buyers who have lived in the area for 7 years or more to ensure more supply for local young people on average incomes who need it
    Or not come up with inflationary govt schemes like stamp duty holidays, help to buy, ever increasing housing benefit, not to mention QE and ultra low interest rates.
  • Heathener said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair
    A win is a win.
    I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.
    I backed a draw in this series so I'm not in a dark place.
    Sadly you might still be. There is now dispute over whether India have forfeited or not. The forfeit claim has been removed from an updated statement.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I see Leylah Fernandez is a lefty (not in the political sense!). Has Emma played one of those before?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2021

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712



    The YouGov tables are out.

    Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

    Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
    Green: 9% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (+2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

    9% of 2019 Tory voters now voting Reform UK, only 7% voting Labour and 3% LD, so most of the movement is Tory to ReformUK.

    Tories still lead in the South, 41% to 29% and the Midlands and Wales 39% to 34% but Labour lead in the North, 49% to 29% and London
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/18pxgji8rh/TheTimes_VI_Results_210909_W.pdf
  • Heathener said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair
    A win is a win.
    I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.
    I backed a draw in this series so I'm not in a dark place.
    Sadly you might still be. There is now dispute over whether India have forfeited or not. The forfeit claim has been removed from an updated statement.
    Oooh this might be just like the Theresa May exit market fiasco.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    “Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.
    If you live in the South and your parents and grandparents also live in the South and own their own home then over half of that group will get a sizeable inheritance.

    Hence most voters in the South are anti inheritance tax and anti dementia tax but also anti building to much in the greenbelt (but outside London they also want tighter controls on immigration too)
    What about the other half who don't get a sizeable inheritance ?

    And what about those whose parents don't own their own home ?

    Do you think this Jane Austen style economic planning based upon possible inheritances is something to approve of ?

    For Thatcher it was hard work, self improvement and living within your means which was to be encouraged.
  • Heathener said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Very unsatisfactory end to the series to be fair
    A win is a win.
    I don't think anyone except the most obdurate could possibly be describing a coronavirus induced forfeit as a satisfactory win. That's a rather dark place to find yourself.
    I backed a draw in this series so I'm not in a dark place.
    Sadly you might still be. There is now dispute over whether India have forfeited or not. The forfeit claim has been removed from an updated statement.
    Oooh this might be just like the Theresa May exit market fiasco.
    But to be honest a lot more serious than that was :)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    Well apparently it has not been forfeited. Or, at least, that statement has been withdrawn. Instead the ECB have stated that India were unable to field a team.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited September 2021

    Sandpit said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Are the ticket-holders going to be as screwed as the Belgian Grand Prix fans?
    No, they'd get a refund.

    But no refund for transport/hotel costs.

    There's no Old Trafford next summer so Lancashire members will not have seen an Old Trafford test for four years.
    I could think of far worse places to spend a couple days than Manchester.

    Except for this afternoon the weekend's weather looks very untypical as well (i.e. not raining)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    kle4 said:

    India forfeit the final test.

    Drawn series, England don't lose the series.

    ECB are fecked unless the BCCI cough up, money that is, not Covid-19.

    Shame. India are the better team but theres been some good tight games.
    It hasn't been forfeited in fact. Or at least that statement has been withdrawn by the ECB.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265



    The YouGov tables are out.

    Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

    Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
    Green: 9% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (+2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

    Interesting point in the tables is that narrow pluralities say they're willing to pay more tax for both the NHS and social care. But large majorities say they don't believe the Government has any real interest in either. So, despite the fact that most people feel the tax changes will only leave them mildly worse off, they are reacting against them because they don't believe they are actually intended to do what they say on the tin.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.

    To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.

    If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.

    Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.

    This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
    In the very short term the money will be used to allow the NHS to increase capacity and deal with the backlog of work. That will undoubtedly help those in need of social care as well as the rest of us. In the medium term the money going into social care will be more than doubled by this. The most needy in our society will benefit enormously. To me this is morally right.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,462
    edited September 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    But surely - surely - it makes more sense to have a situation in which people can afford houses because houses are affordable than a situation where many people can afford houses because they have inherited from their grandparents, who are wealthy because houses are now unaffordable?
    Only way to do that and make houses in London and the Home Counties affordable is ban all foreign property investment in London and severely restrict immigration to London and the South East to reduce demand.

    Then ensure all new houses that are built are affordable homes and only available to first time buyers who have lived in the area for 7 years or more to ensure more supply for local young people on average incomes who need it
    All probably true, but I can't make out whether this is the route to towards Socialism or National Socialism. I'm not a libertarian, but generally I prefer Govts to get less involved not more so. That looks like a slippery slope.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

    You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

    But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

    Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

    And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

    Grade the current Conservative government against the key conservative markers below?:

    • Suspicious of change – therefore favour the status quo
    • Smaller government and therefore lower taxes than other parties would apply
    • Sound, prudent finances - the efficient use of taxpayer money
    • Encourage private property and free enterprise
    • A strong military and policing
    • The preservation of existing cultural values and institutions
    • Strong leader
    • Belief in traditional family life
    • Patriotism, strong belief in what is in the national interest
    • A bit sniffy about dissent and protest
    • Conservatives tolerate status and class because they accept that life isn’t fair
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

    Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

    Do 31%

    Do not 53%

    And yet they have just done more for the NHS than Cameron ever did. Funny old world.
  • Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    You stated the other day that Emma Radacanu had "no chance" of winning SPOTY.

    If you can match your words with relevant odds ...

    You seem rather hell-bent on this one and I think you've lost sight of the betting aspects. Emma clearly has a good chance. If she wins on Saturday then she has an excellent chance. Anyone suggesting to the contrary isn't motivated by either betting or sport.
    Is SPotY about sport? The shortlist is but imo (and not backed up by any facts) the voting on the night is just another reality show, which is why I think it matters that people (watching BBC1) will not have seen the US Open on Amazon Prime. However, I do expect advertisers and sponsors will be signing her up so she will get exposure that way – like one-time favourite Dina Asher-Smith (who @Quincel was the first to warn us off).

    If it is a reality show then it might come down to whether Emma has "girl power" appeal to persuade enough teenage girls to outvote older women who want to mother Tom Daley. :wink:
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
    And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Sandpit said:


    “Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

    "We"? I didn't know you were a definite Tory? Nothing wrong with that, just suprised as you generally have a judicious approach that doesn't suggest a firm commitment.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.

    To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.

    If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.

    Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.

    This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
    In the very short term the money will be used to allow the NHS to increase capacity and deal with the backlog of work. That will undoubtedly help those in need of social care as well as the rest of us. In the medium term the money going into social care will be more than doubled by this. The most needy in our society will benefit enormously. To me this is morally right.
    From everything I'm seeing online - the one thing that would most help the NHS at the moment would be adding extra social care capacity so that hospital beds blocked by people who need care but not hospital care could be unblocked
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited September 2021

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.

    To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.

    If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.

    Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.

    This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
    In the very short term the money will be used to allow the NHS to increase capacity and deal with the backlog of work. That will undoubtedly help those in need of social care as well as the rest of us. In the medium term the money going into social care will be more than doubled by this. The most needy in our society will benefit enormously. To me this is morally right.
    If that is what you believe then we are agreed it is morally right to fund social care properly. The difference is imo you are being incredibly naive to believe that the funds will go to social care rather than the NHS. The government have not promised this at all.

    It is combined funding for health and social care, the vast majority for health, with the split after the next election undefined and wholly up to the next government. For every parliament in my lifetime, if it is a battle between NHS and care funding, the NHS wins. No idea why you think the next parliament will choose differently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
    And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.
    Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.
  • David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

    Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

    Do 31%

    Do not 53%

    The irony is that the practical effect of this policy is lots of cash for the NHS (albeit mostly going on overtime and moonlighting by knackered medics) under the disguise of pretending to sort social care.

    He'd they fessed up- let's say income tax to 22/50%- they'd have got away with it. (It might well be economically foolish, the US clearly isn't retrenching, and I don't think Euroland is either for a couple of years yet.) It's the political wheeze of using NI, plus the sticking plasters indicating THIS IS UNFAIR that I suspect are the problem.

    And once you blow trust, it's really hard to win it back.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited September 2021
    The dodgy tax compaisons are still doing the rounds.

    It's amazing what Callum Robertson the Co-Chair of the Young Liberals UK can do with some very dodgy / fake stats, a couple of carefully designed strawmen, and a dimmed out Labour Party hashtag.

    https://twitter.com/CRobertson_LD/status/1435887009399197696
    Look at the disparity and tell me that the NI rise is fair.



  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Heathener said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Given women normally don't win...
    I think that has more to do with the fact that there really haven't been that many successful individual British sportswomen on the international stage.

    Which is why this is even more of a buy not a lay.

    Tom's is the other story which may win SPOTY.

    Whoever wins will, I think, be a feel good winner. So if Emma wins the US Open she will win SPOTY. But Tom's story is also a very good one.
    Strong counterargument - which I think holds outside of athletics.
    I think Jessica Ennis, Rebecca Adlington, Tanni-Grey Thompson all won lots of golds and didn't win SPOTY.
    But you're right that the story of a female winner, first in 15 years, may be pretty powerful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    eek said:

    Mr. eek, if the F1 title race stays very close it'll keep attention on Hamilton. He may yet win the title and this time it would not be at a canter.

    I don't think he will win the title - unless Red Bull are even more unlucky than they have been so far this season.
    If Mercedes can't win this weekend, then I think it's just about over.
  • Stocky said:

    Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

    You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

    But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

    Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

    And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

    Grade the current Conservative government against the key conservative markers below?:

    • Suspicious of change – therefore favour the status quo
    • Smaller government and therefore lower taxes than other parties would apply
    • Sound, prudent finances - the efficient use of taxpayer money
    • Encourage private property and free enterprise
    • A strong military and policing
    • The preservation of existing cultural values and institutions
    • Strong leader
    • Belief in traditional family life
    • Patriotism, strong belief in what is in the national interest
    • A bit sniffy about dissent and protest
    • Conservatives tolerate status and class because they accept that life isn’t fair
    I'd give the current government a tick for #3 (the Chancellor is trying to get the books balanced extremely quickly after a recession, too quickly I'd argue), #5 (extra police has been a priority), #7 (others may think he's a joke, but its the Boris show now, he is a strong leader), #9 (what others call fleg shagging), #10 (that crime bill that just passed is a disgrace for clamping down on protest), #11 (redistributing workers taxes to pay for inheritances)

    So 6/11 ticks.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
    And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.
    Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.
    If she loses the final I'll be very surprised if she wins SPOTY. If she wins the final then there will be an initial fanfare but few will have watched the games because it is not on proper telly (I'm assuming the final isn't) and the achievement may fade a little in the memory of the public in the months to voting. It will come down to media profile between now and then and Daley has it it seems but I just wonder whether Peaty competing on Come Dancing may provide a big advantage for him especially if he does well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well congratulations to @CorrectHorseBattery on his bet. I'll admit that I didn't see this coming but for me the government this week has taken steps to reduce the Covid inflamed deficit, to address the urgent needs of the NHS and to finally start addressing the neglect of social care. For all the moaning about this subsidising the rich (who still have to pay very substantial sums to reach the caps) what this money is actually about is providing social care to the poor and disabled who are being neglected at the moment. The government really need to hammer this home. I think the cost of the caps on contributions will prove to be a tiny proportion of the package.

    To me, this was responsible government. I fully accept that there are fairness issues with using NI, why should rental income be lower taxed than earned income for example, but there are no simple solutions in our over complicated tax system and something needed to be done.

    If they have taken a hit for it so be it. Governing is like that sometimes. I am glad we have a government that is not scared to make decisions.

    Your first paragraph is a fantasy and completely at odds with the detail of what the govt is saying. There is very little new money for social care this parliament, and it is for future parliaments to decide thereafter. They are not even willing to commit how much will go to social care if they win the next election.

    This is a smoke and mirrors tax rise.
    In the very short term the money will be used to allow the NHS to increase capacity and deal with the backlog of work. That will undoubtedly help those in need of social care as well as the rest of us. In the medium term the money going into social care will be more than doubled by this. The most needy in our society will benefit enormously. To me this is morally right.
    From everything I'm seeing online - the one thing that would most help the NHS at the moment would be adding extra social care capacity so that hospital beds blocked by people who need care but not hospital care could be unblocked
    I think that is right. The lack of care packages (as a result of the lack of resources) has created the whole bed blocking fiasco in the NHS reducing capacity and wasting money. NHS and SC are not really alternatives to one another, they are complementary.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    I know of several instances of parents gifting deposits inter vivos, which both gets the money to the children when it's useful to them and takes advantage of the 7 year rule.

    The more I think of it the more anomalous the 7 year rule seems. I suppose if you abolish it you take money out of circulation because there is no incentive to give money away, but that doesn't seem enough of a justification. I suppose historically the answer was "it's DEATH duties, stupid." But there's no reason why it should be and abolishing it would torpedo the really big estates (though they will already have trusts in place which you might haver to get retrospective on).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Yes to an extent but also if they build too much on the greenbelt in the South they will also lose votes to the LDs in the South, certainly locally as they did in areas like Guildford and Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells in May, maybe then nationally too. Immigration also needs to be reduced to cut demand too.

    Plenty of young people also inherit from grandparents as well as parents now or get gifts from parents in their 20s and 30s, remember in the South their parents also likely have more savings not tied up in their house.

    “Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.
    Mr Sandpit, why do you go in for making up lies about the Lib Dems?

    Just wondering....
    TBF he's slightly insulated from the realities of UK politics, as he's been ex pat for some time, I think.
    Accusations of dishonesty are a bit harsh.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    But that's the point. If it just goes to the aged 60+ kids then nothing is left for the grandkids (or later) to get on the property ladder.

    If the aged 60+ kids take it and give some to their own kids, then it still won't be enough to pay for a deposit let alone a house for the grandkids.

    Either way the idea of some windfall inheritance only really works if you're an only child and its not being split any further.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.
    I don't think I've ever said it was !
  • Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
    And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.
    Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.
    If she loses the final I'll be very surprised if she wins SPOTY. If she wins the final then there will be an initial fanfare but few will have watched the games because it is not on proper telly (I'm assuming the final isn't) and the achievement may fade a little in the memory of the public in the months to voting. It will come down to media profile between now and then and Daley has it it seems but I just wonder whether Peaty competing on Come Dancing may provide a big advantage for him especially if he does well.
    Ssshh, I have been trying and failing to get matched on Peaty this morning!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:


    “Plenty of young people” in the top 5-10% maybe, definitely not close to the average person. That’s the problem, and why Labour and the hypocrite Lib Dems (in favour of unlimited immigration and no house building) are taking Tory votes there. We need a strategy to win them back.

    "We"? I didn't know you were a definite Tory? Nothing wrong with that, just suprised as you generally have a judicious approach that doesn't suggest a firm commitment.
    I’m not currently a member of any political party. Have been a Tory member in the past though, and was trying to instil something of a sense of community with my reply to Mr @HYUFD.

  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    14m
    The thing that will worry Tory MPs most about this poll is Reform on 5%. That's what the Boris has been benefiting from. The absence of a threat from the Right.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.
    I don't think I've ever said it was !
    The prior posts were explicitly about inheritance being a solution, or not, to housing affordability for young people.
  • DavidL said:

    David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

    Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

    Do 31%

    Do not 53%

    And yet they have just done more for the NHS than Cameron ever did. Funny old world.
    I know a few Labour strategists/pollsters from the Brown/Miliband era, it used to drive them up the wall that no matter what Labour did the voters always thought the NHS was safe and improving under David Cameron.
  • MattW said:

    The dodgy tax compaisons are still doing the rounds.

    It's amazing what Callum Robertson the Co-Chair of the Young Liberals UK can do with some very dodgy / fake stats, a couple of carefully designed strawmen, and a dimmed out Labour Party hashtag.

    https://twitter.com/CRobertson_LD/status/1435887009399197696
    Look at the disparity and tell me that the NI rise is fair.



    The only way its dodgy is they've excluded Employers NI from the graduates taxes.

    Include that and its 49.8%
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Stocky said:

    Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

    You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

    But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

    Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

    And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

    Grade the current Conservative government against the key conservative markers below?:

    • Suspicious of change – therefore favour the status quo
    • Smaller government and therefore lower taxes than other parties would apply
    • Sound, prudent finances - the efficient use of taxpayer money
    • Encourage private property and free enterprise
    • A strong military and policing
    • The preservation of existing cultural values and institutions
    • Strong leader
    • Belief in traditional family life
    • Patriotism, strong belief in what is in the national interest
    • A bit sniffy about dissent and protest
    • Conservatives tolerate status and class because they accept that life isn’t fair
    I'd give the current government a tick for #3 (the Chancellor is trying to get the books balanced extremely quickly after a recession, too quickly I'd argue), #5 (extra police has been a priority), #7 (others may think he's a joke, but its the Boris show now, he is a strong leader), #9 (what others call fleg shagging), #10 (that crime bill that just passed is a disgrace for clamping down on protest), #11 (redistributing workers taxes to pay for inheritances)

    So 6/11 ticks.
    I think that's a bit generous. It's clear that Johnson is not wedded to conservative ideology or principle. Using Tony Benn's line that leaders are either weathercocks or signposts Johnson in the ultimate weathercock, much more so that Blair even.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    14m
    The thing that will worry Tory MPs most about this poll is Reform on 5%. That's what the Boris has been benefiting from. The absence of a threat from the Right.

    Nah, the government can add at least 80% of their vote back on to their total for the GE. In fairness Labour can probably do the same with a chunk of the Green vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited September 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    But that's the point. If it just goes to the aged 60+ kids then nothing is left for the grandkids (or later) to get on the property ladder.

    If the aged 60+ kids take it and give some to their own kids, then it still won't be enough to pay for a deposit let alone a house for the grandkids.

    Either way the idea of some windfall inheritance only really works if you're an only child and its not being split any further.
    Different people have different amounts of families members. Bluntly you can either pass on your genes or your wealth :D
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited September 2021
    The bank of mum and dad is basically inheritance up front.

    https://www.mortgageadvicebureau.com/expert-advice/first-time-buyer/the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-9th-biggest-lender

    84% of parents help their children - 57% is a gift, 18.3% is a no-interest loan and 4.8% a loan with interest
    The Bank of Mum and Dad contributes 26% of funds to the UK housing market
    The Bank of Mum and Dad is the 9th biggest lender
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    But that's the point. If it just goes to the aged 60+ kids then nothing is left for the grandkids (or later) to get on the property ladder.

    If the aged 60+ kids take it and give some to their own kids, then it still won't be enough to pay for a deposit let alone a house for the grandkids.

    Either way the idea of some windfall inheritance only really works if you're an only child and its not being split any further.
    Depends how big the pot is.
  • Will this poll change the vote of Tuesday for Johnson's NI levy plans?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58507436


    I see the lead scientist for the AZ vaccine is playing down the idea of Boosters for this autumn/winter as immunity levels are holding up 'well'. Define 'well', immunity levels are dropping over time and do you want that heading into winter with a variant that has 1000 times more viral shedding than the original strain?

    You also have to remember efficacy rates for most vaccines are usually much lower than the Covid vaccines we have created, so it could be that scientists are still using that as a benchmark when it comes to decision making. How low will they let it go in regards to Covid?

    She's also pushing the movement for our vaccines going to other countries instead of a booster campaign. This I suspect is a prelude to the JCVI decision with them making the recommendation not to offer boosters to the majority of the adult population.

    Let's hope the government stand firm and carry out the booster program alongside Flu. I think Javid will.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited September 2021

    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
    And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.
    Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.
    If she loses the final I'll be very surprised if she wins SPOTY. If she wins the final then there will be an initial fanfare but few will have watched the games because it is not on proper telly (I'm assuming the final isn't) and the achievement may fade a little in the memory of the public in the months to voting. It will come down to media profile between now and then and Daley has it it seems but I just wonder whether Peaty competing on Come Dancing may provide a big advantage for him especially if he does well.
    Ssshh, I have been trying and failing to get matched on Peaty this morning!
    I'm already on him at 10 but I've just checked and got a bit more on at 15.5. That's a great price I think.

    (I'm already on Raducanu at 20 with BF but cross with myself for only waging a fiver.)
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited September 2021

    MattW said:

    The dodgy tax compaisons are still doing the rounds.

    It's amazing what Callum Robertson the Co-Chair of the Young Liberals UK can do with some very dodgy / fake stats, a couple of carefully designed strawmen, and a dimmed out Labour Party hashtag.

    https://twitter.com/CRobertson_LD/status/1435887009399197696
    Look at the disparity and tell me that the NI rise is fair.



    The only way its dodgy is they've excluded Employers NI from the graduates taxes.

    Include that and its 49.8%
    While accurate it adds complexity and in this case you don't actually need to.

    Although adding it on would allow people to play the £350m on the side of a bus game where someone is stupid enough to say

    The figure is wrong the true figure isn't £350m it's £250m

    Which just confirms the core message...

    I suspect there will be a lot of these messages come the next election as they drive home the reason behind an inevitable wealth tax.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883

    Stocky said:

    Re what the Conservative party 'stands for'.

    You could argue that includes sounds finances as much as low taxes.

    But the problem there is that they haven't been following sound finances since entering government in 2010.

    Having sound finances means being willing to make sacrifices to achieve them.

    And neither Cameron nor Boris have been willing to do that instead there was always money to throw at vote buying and funding pet projects.

    Grade the current Conservative government against the key conservative markers below?:

    • Suspicious of change – therefore favour the status quo
    • Smaller government and therefore lower taxes than other parties would apply
    • Sound, prudent finances - the efficient use of taxpayer money
    • Encourage private property and free enterprise
    • A strong military and policing
    • The preservation of existing cultural values and institutions
    • Strong leader
    • Belief in traditional family life
    • Patriotism, strong belief in what is in the national interest
    • A bit sniffy about dissent and protest
    • Conservatives tolerate status and class because they accept that life isn’t fair
    I'd give the current government a tick for #3 (the Chancellor is trying to get the books balanced extremely quickly after a recession, too quickly I'd argue), #5 (extra police has been a priority), #7 (others may think he's a joke, but its the Boris show now, he is a strong leader), #9 (what others call fleg shagging), #10 (that crime bill that just passed is a disgrace for clamping down on protest), #11 (redistributing workers taxes to pay for inheritances)

    So 6/11 ticks.
    #5 is joke. just this week we've had a t23 frigate retired ahead of schedule to save lifex costs, rfa argus up for sale and the anti ship missile/harpoon replacement delayed with a 'capability holiday'.

    and thats just the navy...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    But that's the point. If it just goes to the aged 60+ kids then nothing is left for the grandkids (or later) to get on the property ladder.

    If the aged 60+ kids take it and give some to their own kids, then it still won't be enough to pay for a deposit let alone a house for the grandkids.

    Either way the idea of some windfall inheritance only really works if you're an only child and its not being split any further.
    Different people have different amounts of families members. Bluntly you can either pass on your genes or your wealth :D
    If you're really lucky you'll have a childless uncle or aunt xD
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    So the "kids" are going to be maybe in their sixties. Not exactly a solution to housing affordability for young people.
    That will give you the (I think) French problem of empty property with fragmented ownership everywhere.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    There's an old Lancashire saying, too. Clogs to clogs in three generations.
    Not every family, of course, but see the first in this years 'A House through Time' on BBC. The first family living in the selected house did exactly that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

    Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

    Do 31%

    Do not 53%

    And yet they have just done more for the NHS than Cameron ever did. Funny old world.
    I know a few Labour strategists/pollsters from the Brown/Miliband era, it used to drive them up the wall that no matter what Labour did the voters always thought the NHS was safe and improving under David Cameron.
    Probably the Ivan factor.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081



    The YouGov tables are out.

    Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

    Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
    Green: 9% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (+2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

    So Labour up in the North, C2DE voters, Brexit voters, even over 65s.

    Classic Red Wall voters.
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Emma Raducanu wins the match 6-1, 6-4.

    The betting has Emma Raducanu favourite 1.8 vs 2.2 Leylah Fernandez on Betfair. Emma has been the outsider in her quarter-final and semi-final matches.
    Emma Raducanu is now favourite for SPotY. Betfair prices:-
    2.2 Emma Raducanu
    2.48 Tom Daley
    8.2 Jason Kenny
    8.2 Adam Peaty
    15 Lewis Hamilton
    26 bar
    LOL. Keep laying whoever just won. It’s done me well so far, and great to see a new name making everyone else go longer than previously.
    Down to 1.75 now. Given women normally don't win... she didn't do particularly well in Wimbledon, strong England performance in the Euros and it's an Olympics year... I think that's a clear lay.
    Give me some of that!

    I’ll lay the first person on this board who wants it, £100 at evens on Raducanu winning SPoTY.
    I'll take that!
    Deal! £100 at evens. If she wins SPoTY I owe you £100.
    And I owe you £100 if she doesn't. Fair play to you offering a bet better than market rates, since I almost always agree with you politically it will be fun to have a bet against you on this site, even if I lose.
    Done, I’ll PM you this afternoon.
    If she loses the final I'll be very surprised if she wins SPOTY. If she wins the final then there will be an initial fanfare but few will have watched the games because it is not on proper telly (I'm assuming the final isn't) and the achievement may fade a little in the memory of the public in the months to voting. It will come down to media profile between now and then and Daley has it it seems but I just wonder whether Peaty competing on Come Dancing may provide a big advantage for him especially if he does well.
    Ssshh, I have been trying and failing to get matched on Peaty this morning!
    I'm already on him at 10 but I've just checked and got a bit more on at 15.5. That's a great price I think.
    Ah, I am trying for 20+ so only got 28p so far.....
  • tlg86 said:

    The bank of mum and dad is basically inheritance up front.

    https://www.mortgageadvicebureau.com/expert-advice/first-time-buyer/the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-9th-biggest-lender

    84% of parents help their children - 57% is a gift, 18.3% is a no-interest loan and 4.8% a loan with interest
    The Bank of Mum and Dad contributes 26% of funds to the UK housing market
    The Bank of Mum and Dad is the 9th biggest lender

    The bank of Grandma and Grandad also helped me as well.

    I'm glad they all considered earning interest haram.

    Charging your kids interest, that's something I could never do.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    ??? That seems overly complicated - Just split it between the kids. They in turn can give to their kids.
    But that's the point. If it just goes to the aged 60+ kids then nothing is left for the grandkids (or later) to get on the property ladder.

    If the aged 60+ kids take it and give some to their own kids, then it still won't be enough to pay for a deposit let alone a house for the grandkids.

    Either way the idea of some windfall inheritance only really works if you're an only child and its not being split any further.
    Depends how big the pot is.
    Not really because it scales.

    Since HYUFDs claim is inheritance pays for a house, if the pot is from a primary home, and the grandkids are trying to get on the property ladder, then the bigger the pot the more the grandkids will need to get their own home.

    If your houseprice is £200k and its being split 10 ways then that's a £20k deposit and the grandkids would need to take out a £180k mortgage.
    If your houseprice is £550k and its being split 10 ways then that's a £55k deposit and the grandkids would need to take out a £495k mortgage.

    Either way, a slice of a house being split 10 ways isn't going to pay for a house. A slice of 10 houses might if someone has a property portfolio when they die but that isn't what's generally getting spoken about.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    There's an old Lancashire saying, too. Clogs to clogs in three generations.
    Not every family, of course, but see the first in this years 'A House through Time' on BBC. The first family living in the selected house did exactly that.
    Wasn't that the second family, the first one became Magistrate for Leeds and got a death sentence reduced to live in a colony.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Great news! email from the NHS "via amazonses.com"

    We are happy to introduce Digital Coronavirus Passports(HSPS)
    Dear NHS member,

    Starting today you can apply for a Digital Passport.

    Your account ID is z48c06e. Please make a note of this ID. You need it to sign in to NHS Digital Passport

    The Coronavirus Digital Passport is documentation proving that you have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or you recently recovered from COVID-19

    Please click on the link below to apply for your Digital Passport now

    https://contact-tracng.phe.gov.uk/inviton/accept?invitation_token=f8z9AsvxgvjomFyYTG_2

    We will ask you a few personal information about yourself and show you how to get your copy .

    The passport will allow you to travel safetly and freely around the world without having to self-isolate.

    Thank you for doing this quickly. You will be helping to protect yourself, your community, and the NHS.

    Any information you give us will be held in line with the Digital Passport. If you have any questions about this email or our NHS Digital Passport, please visit https://contact-trcing.phe.gov.uk/.

    ***

    DO NOT follow those links (doctored to be on the safe side)

    Seems like years since anything has got past the gmail spam filter.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881



    The YouGov tables are out.

    Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

    Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
    Green: 9% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (+2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

    Looks pretty dubious tbh. Labour lead with just 35% of the vote!? And with greens still on 9%?
  • Mr. Eagles, ironic, given the staggering proportion of taxes now spent on the NHS.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    David Cameron's detoxification project is officially dead.

    Thinking about Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party do you think They do or do not care about improving the NHS?

    Do 31%

    Do not 53%

    And yet they have just done more for the NHS than Cameron ever did. Funny old world.
    I know a few Labour strategists/pollsters from the Brown/Miliband era, it used to drive them up the wall that no matter what Labour did the voters always thought the NHS was safe and improving under David Cameron.
    Probably the Ivan factor.
    A bit, it was something that happened straight away in the polling. I think the voters heard Dave's challenges and experiences with dealing with the NHS and people related.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    There's an old Lancashire saying, too. Clogs to clogs in three generations.
    Not every family, of course, but see the first in this years 'A House through Time' on BBC. The first family living in the selected house did exactly that.
    Its 'rags to rags in three generations' in Yorkshire.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Will this poll change the vote of Tuesday for Johnson's NI levy plans?

    There was no reason to push through such a tax rise without proper discussion or debate in the House. Why couldn't it wait for the budget? Then it could have killed off Sunaks prospects, not Johnsons.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Mr. Eagles, ironic, given the staggering proportion of taxes now spent on the NHS.

    Do you really think 20% of taxes on health is staggering? To be honest it seems quite low to me.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    tlg86 said:

    The bank of mum and dad is basically inheritance up front.

    https://www.mortgageadvicebureau.com/expert-advice/first-time-buyer/the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-9th-biggest-lender

    84% of parents help their children - 57% is a gift, 18.3% is a no-interest loan and 4.8% a loan with interest
    The Bank of Mum and Dad contributes 26% of funds to the UK housing market
    The Bank of Mum and Dad is the 9th biggest lender

    Riveting, thanks for that.

    Might answer my question about lifetime transfers being exempt - withdrawing the exemption might have the unintended effect of crashing the housing market.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    rkrkrk said:



    The YouGov tables are out.

    Labour takes the lead for the first time since January in our latest Westminster voting intention poll (8-9 Sep)

    Con: 33% (-5 from 2-3 Sep)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (+2)
    Green: 9% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (+2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/10/voting-intention-con-33-lab-35-8-9-sep

    Looks pretty dubious tbh. Labour lead with just 35% of the vote!? And with greens still on 9%?
    Those Greens aren't going to be voting Tory. Many must be disenchanted Corbynistas.

    A lot rides on the Conferences.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Foxy said:

    Will this poll change the vote of Tuesday for Johnson's NI levy plans?

    There was no reason to push through such a tax rise without proper discussion or debate in the House. Why couldn't it wait for the budget? Then it could have killed off Sunaks prospects, not Johnsons.
    Why do you think Rishi pushed it through so quickly.

    I'm at a loss as to what can be announced in the next budget as beyond pension (contributions) there is no where else that money can be grabbed from
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    edited September 2021
    Dominic Cummings' AMA is today so look for his subscribers to tweet any interesting titbits this afternoon.
This discussion has been closed.