@CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau. What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been? And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time. Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was. The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold. It won't.
A decade of retrenchment was not inevitable. That's not what America is doing, they're going for fiscal stimulus and will have a roaring twenties instead.
We could and should have had a roaring twenties as well but it seems the Tories want to strangle it at birth.
As we're coming out of lockdown and furlough is winding up the story a week ago was one of full employment and an abundance of job offers. Optimism was extremely high and the only 'problems' were that there were too many jobs available. That's a great problem to have.
Now its a story of tax rises and people looking at their wallets and thinking what they have to lose. Insanity. Absolute insanity. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
Of course you are right. Perhaps I ought to have said "a decade of retrenchment is inevitable from a Party who has spent the last decade bludgeoning us with slogans about fixing the roof, balancing the budget, etc., etc." Me. I'm a Keynesian. Now isn't the time to be worrying about a deficit, or scaling back spending, or raising taxes. But the Tories are the Party you can trust with the economy aren't they?
Yes and there was a very simple line the Tories could and should have taken, one I've said myself here many times because I legitimately believe it. Unlike in 2007 we went into this recession without a structural deficit. Yes there's a temporary one, but we need time to grow out of it - and we have time to do so too.
Sunak had already done a plan to get us back to a balanced budget at the last Budget without these tax rises and since then the borrowing figures had kept coming in better than expected not worse than expected.
And the jobs market is doing well. PMIs doing well. High growth now could have fuelled extra spending on whatever Sunak wanted to spend it on without tax rises while following his prior plan.
Instead this madness. And tax rises don't raise as much as they're supposed to because this will discourage activity, so its just a miserable self-inflicted and unnecessary failure.
The key thing about Hartlepool was that the Conservatives hoovered up the entirety of the Faragist vote, which boosted their share. That's either not happened here, or there's been a big blue to red swing as well.
Its funny HYUFD has been saying for days he doesn't mind the Tories losing the votes from Robert, Max, Casino and myself as they've gained BJO - but I'm getting the feeling that despite his comments to the contrary that BJO is not upset to see Labour in the lead tonight.
I would just like to compliment and thank all those who manage and maintain this forum as it has been quite exceptional this week in portraying accurately a substantial mood swing
@TOPPING, @Sandpit yes, i had a 993 GT. i bought it suspiciously cheaply in Moscow when I lived there. flew it to Cyprus (super cheap air freight ex SVO on a haggard Il-76) because we didnt have secure parking in Moscow but it got nicked in Cyprus anyway and trashed so I parted it out. i made ok money on it but i would have been far better off keeping it. i've still got the rear wing and that now is on my 993 Carrera slicktop.
the 993 is the best 911 for the road but the gt is the worst 993 for the road. it had big fixed vane geometry turbos and would drop out of boost and lag if you werent very fucking committed.
One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.
2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election
You are failing to recognise the mood music..the whole thing is a disaster
The polling also shows a rise in income tax, a rise in inheritance tax, a rise in tax on pensions or savings etc would also be unpopular. There is no popular tax for most people.
The only tax that would be popular is a CGT rise or financial investments tax but of course that only raises a limited amount and tax on dividends was raised anyway. After Covid the NHS needs extra funds as does social care and it has to be paid for somehow as does all the extra spending we had as a result of Covid. Balance the books now and then go for tax cuts before the next election.
Thatcher was often far further behind after a decade in power, Labour was often behind by 2008, the equivalent year in terms of their time in power.
Better to get the hard decisions taken now midterm, Thatcher sensibly did not bother too much what midterm polls showed about her government's popularity and nor should Boris
You just do not get the mood music
It is the unfairness and hitting the low earners and with a deaf ear stopping the £20UC continuing which I have criticised consistently
It is wrong and Boris may well pay the price
Remember 44 conservative mps were unhappy yesterday, enough to put letters into the 1922
Put letters into the 1922 and replace with who? Sunak whose tax rise idea this was?
The fact is the extra spending Covid cost has to be paid for as does the extra funds the NHS and social care needs.
A rise in income tax would have been just as unpopular, a rise in inheritance tax or a dementia tax even more unpopular.
Governments sometimes have to take tough decisions, governments normally go behind midterm, it is par for the course.
Only pathetic wet blankets lose any sleep over that and a mere 2% behind after 11 years in power
Absolutely. Time for true Conservatives to rally around now to protect their brave government.
pensioners have accepted they don’t need to keep pace with earnings, they don’t wont to be greedy, all pensioners are patriotic and want to be all in together. It’s the young that is greedy. Why shouldn’t care workers on minimum wage end up worse off to protect the wealth of pensioners? What on earth is there not to like about it? Young people work and pay as they earn, old people deserve decency in their retirements. Only in it for themselves the Labour voting youth of today.
this is a level headed government pensioning off Osbornes silly gimmicks with sound fiscal policy everyone with a brain can recognise and get behind. They are fixing roofs Osborne did nothing about.
@TOPPING, @Sandpit yes, i had a 993 GT. i bought it suspiciously cheaply in Moscow when I lived there. flew it to Cyprus (super cheap air freight ex SVO on a haggard Il-76) because we didnt have secure parking in Moscow but it got nicked in Cyprus anyway and trashed so I parted it out. i made ok money on it but i would have been far better off keeping it. i've still got the rear wing and that now is on my 993 Carrera slicktop.
the 993 is the best 911 for the road but the gt is the worst 993 for the road. it had big fixed vane geometry turbos and would drop out of boost and lag if you werent very fucking committed.
one handed typing is a pain in the dick
Do you need the other hand for the steering wheel?
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
It does look very like Boris's dementia moment on the same subject
A different leader could potentially have sold the idea of "We're putting up your taxes now in order to sort out the NHS and then the care system", but although there still quite a few people who quite like Johnson, there are very few who see him as, well, reliable. So voters note the tax rises about to clobber them, and discount the stuff about it being for a good cause later on.
A couple more polls like this will set things up nicely for the Labour conference in a couple of weeks.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Its funny HYUFD has been saying for days he doesn't mind the Tories losing the votes from Robert, Max, Casino and myself as they've gained BJO - but I'm getting the feeling that despite his comments to the contrary that BJO is not upset to see Labour in the lead tonight.
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire · 1h No reason for Labour to cue the darts music and declare victory here
They're only in the lead (within the margin of error) by virtue of standing still as nearly one in ten Tory voters switch to Reform UK and a fith to Don't Know – who share their name with Labour's care policy
Aaron Bastani @AaronBastani · 15m Labour led most polls between 2010 and 2015 under Ed Miliband, very often by double digits.
I feel like this stuff has been memory-holed. So, yeah, it's one poll.
Aaron Bastani has no business talking about polls.
During GE19 he accused YouGov and Survation of being "bought and paid for" by Tories. He tried to "re-weight" polls to show Labour actually in the lead.
It does look very like Boris's dementia moment on the same subject
A different leader could potentially have sold the idea of "We're putting up your taxes now in order to sort out the NHS and then the care system", but although there still quite a few people who quite like Johnson, there are very few who see him as, well, reliable. So voters note the tax rises about to clobber them, and discount the stuff about it being for a good cause later on.
A couple more polls like this will set things up nicely for the Labour conference in a couple of weeks.
To be honest Nick I am furious about the cancelling of the £20UC uplift and if Rishi does not reverse this decision then he has lost my support though I have lapsed my membership of the party
I could not believe either that Williamson did not know the national treasure that is Marcus Rashford
You did ask me if I could be tempted to Labour and if they were to put forward a fair taxation scheme without destroying the entrepreneurs and wealth creators then who knows
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire · 1h No reason for Labour to cue the darts music and declare victory here
They're only in the lead (within the margin of error) by virtue of standing still as nearly one in ten Tory voters switch to Reform UK and a fith to Don't Know – who share their name with Labour's care policy
Its funny HYUFD has been saying for days he doesn't mind the Tories losing the votes from Robert, Max, Casino and myself as they've gained BJO - but I'm getting the feeling that despite his comments to the contrary that BJO is not upset to see Labour in the lead tonight.
This header brings me joy. The policy was the final straw for me, in 2019 I definitely didn't vote for a massive expansion of the state and substantial tax rises.
Incidentally I did this poll, so I've done my part!
Its funny HYUFD has been saying for days he doesn't mind the Tories losing the votes from Robert, Max, Casino and myself as they've gained BJO - but I'm getting the feeling that despite his comments to the contrary that BJO is not upset to see Labour in the lead tonight.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.
(I know its NI, but still)
The difference between abstract thought and reality. Making it into a separate tax on the payslip from 2023 is also really bloody stupid, for it'll show exactly how much BoJo's tax is costing them each month, and the average person will feel like they're getting nothing back for their money.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
Compared to the last general election the changes are as follows with the new YouGov poll:
Lab +2% Con -12% LD -2%
Therefore a net 12% has disappeared but they only give us the figures for the 3 main parties? Rubbish reporting. I'd like to know how the Greens, SNP, PC, ReformUK are doing.
Its funny HYUFD has been saying for days he doesn't mind the Tories losing the votes from Robert, Max, Casino and myself as they've gained BJO - but I'm getting the feeling that despite his comments to the contrary that BJO is not upset to see Labour in the lead tonight.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
Bit premature to go there imho. So far there has been movement from the likes of the PB "famous four". All of working age to LD, or possibly DK. Needs more for a Labour government. Ditching the triple lock will be next, and may loosen the iron grip of the PM on the oldies. Or may not.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
Very difficult but not impossible.
In this climate anything is possible
At my age I did not expect to to be so angry with Boris and Rishi as I am tonight
As you correctly identified the element missing was fairness
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
Very difficult but not impossible.
In this climate anything is possible
At my age I did not expect to to be so angry with Boris and Rishi as I am tonight
As you correctly identified the element missing was fairness
Also, rushing it through in barely 24 hours was rather undignified IMO.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
I don't think so, the mood music among my friends is awful for the Tories. The last few members I know are positively mutinous. There's no enthusiasm for Labour but governments lose elections and with Boris in charge the Tories are pissing on middle England and trying to convince us it's just rain. Labour just need to keep hammering the point home that this is a tax on the working poor to enable rich pensioners to pass on their assets to their rich middle aged children.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
Isn't this a money bill? And therefore outside the purview of the Lords? I assumed so, but may be wrong.
All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.
(I know its NI, but still)
The difference between abstract thought and reality. Making it into a separate tax on the payslip from 2023 is also really bloody stupid, for it'll show exactly how much BoJo's tax is costing them each month, and the average person will feel like they're getting nothing back for their money.
Particularly when they discover social care hasn't been solved. And the NHS has huge waiting lists too.
Compared to the last general election the changes are as follows with the new YouGov poll:
Lab +2% Con -12% LD -2%
Therefore a net 12% has disappeared but they only give us the figures for the 3 main parties? Rubbish reporting. I'd like to know how the Greens, SNP, PC, ReformUK are doing.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
Compared to the last general election the changes are as follows with the new YouGov poll:
Lab +2% Con -12% LD -2%
Therefore a net 12% has disappeared but they only give us the figures for the 3 main parties? Rubbish reporting. I'd like to know how the Greens, SNP, PC, ReformUK are doing.
Reform +4% i think
An interesting question, of which I can't answer as I am not of that tradition but is Farage even going to care about standing against Tories next time? He got Brexit
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
I don't think so, the mood music among my friends is awful for the Tories. The last few members I know are positively mutinous. There's no enthusiasm for Labour but governments lose elections and with Boris in charge the Tories are pissing on middle England and trying to convince us it's just rain. Labour just need to keep hammering the point home that this is a tax on the working poor to enable rich pensioners to pass on their assets to their rich middle aged children.
For anyone with decades of work ahead of them - and for anyone who thinks of their children and grandchildren - what's the point in voting for the Tories anymore after this week?
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
I don't think so, the mood music among my friends is awful for the Tories. The last few members I know are positively mutinous. There's no enthusiasm for Labour but governments lose elections and with Boris in charge the Tories are pissing on middle England and trying to convince us it's just rain. Labour just need to keep hammering the point home that this is a tax on the working poor to enable rich pensioners to pass on their assets to their rich middle aged children.
Well either way I am political homeless as I have said several times if Rishi does not relent on the £20UC then he has lost my support
6.25% swing. Some decent Labour results tonight for a change. Possibly confirming the poll isn't an outlier? Although may be very temporary.
I think the Killamarsh result is very much about the local green belt being built on despite Tory promises it wouldnt happen TBH
2 of the 3 NE results were very, very poor for the Tories though too. Tory promises turn out to be bollocks? Whoever would have suspected such an unusual occurrence?
All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.
(I know its NI, but still)
The difference between abstract thought and reality. Making it into a separate tax on the payslip from 2023 is also really bloody stupid, for it'll show exactly how much BoJo's tax is costing them each month, and the average person will feel like they're getting nothing back for their money.
Particularly when they discover social care hasn't been solved. And the NHS has huge waiting lists too.
Indeed, iirc the Times reported that a poll had 1% of respondents saying that they believe the plan to overhaul social care would leave them better off, below even the lizardman constant!
Instead of flushing yet more money into the NHS black hole, Johnson needed to be tough on the NHS remit, and tough on the causes of NHS demand.
However you look at the facts Bastani, you are utterly wrong.
Isn’t it time you gave up politics and spinning, Bastani? You are just no good at it.
One interesting thing about seeing the polling in a scroll like that, Bastani is clearly wrong because as the election drew near the poll leads drop to parity, but mid term, after the pasty budget, Milliband did get double digit leads, in January the Conservatives have lead, by the summer it’s double digit Labour leads, so there is one example of it changing very quickly, like I said the pasty budget. Another example “what was it about 25% poll leads that attracted you to call an election Primeminister? All polling companies are giving cons poll leads late teens into twenties, yet just months later Labour, with Corbyn in charge, had poll leads.
So it can change very quickly, based around a catalyst? But also the big mid term leads, and leads up to polling day, certainly meant nothing in 2015 and ‘92, if anything it encouraged play it safe, don’t voice a policy which may have been the bigger influence of result than polling.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I would only suggest that without Scotland it will be very difficult for Labour to exceed 300 seats
I don't think so, the mood music among my friends is awful for the Tories. The last few members I know are positively mutinous. There's no enthusiasm for Labour but governments lose elections and with Boris in charge the Tories are pissing on middle England and trying to convince us it's just rain. Labour just need to keep hammering the point home that this is a tax on the working poor to enable rich pensioners to pass on their assets to their rich middle aged children.
If Rishi does not relent on the £20UC then he has lost my support
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
Agreed. My point is, what would the impact have been in the alternate universe where NI was kept as it was, and the tax raid was on the retired?
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
I see we're back to flapping around now the Tories are down in one poll
I think it is more than that
I have already complimented the site for the clear and obvious mood music of unfairness and there are several issues combining to cause thus fall
Tonight's locals also indicate the trend away from Boris
The only question now for Labour is can they capitalise on it
It looks like proper mid term level of support for government is arriving, with the caveat mid term polling tells us zilch about the next GE result,
With the main story being in that Labour not benefiting, still disliked, untrusted and stuck in the doldrums. I think that is because of Brexit, to go up in polls they need staunch Brexit supporters to ignore the fact Labour was the party of remain. If I am right in this, a small problem for Torys is that Boris owns those voters Labour need as he is the Brexit Man, he is Brexit to them, another Tory leader may just look Tory to them.
I see we're back to flapping around now the Tories are down in one poll
I think it is more than that
I have already complimented the site for the clear and obvious mood music of unfairness and there are several issues combining to cause thus fall
Tonight's locals also indicate the trend away from Boris
The only question now for Labour is can they capitalise on it
It looks like proper mid term level of support for government is arriving, with the caveat mid term polling tells us zilch about the next GE result,
With the main story being in that Labour not benefiting, still disliked, untrusted and stuck in the doldrums. I think that is because of Brexit, to go up in polls they need staunch Brexit supporters to ignore the fact Labour was the party of remain. If I am right in this, a small problem for Torys is that Boris owns those voters Labour need as he is the Brexit Man, he is Brexit to them, another Tory leader may just look Tory to them.
The corollary of Brexit being Done means we no longer need to vote Tory to get it done. Its already done, and voters don't do gratitude.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
Agreed. My point is, what would the impact have been in the alternate universe where NI was kept as it was, and the tax raid was on the retired?
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
Depends if the Orange-bookers win the fight for the LD's soul. The entirety of the economically liberal portion of the population is homeless, so if they go for some unobjectionable middle of the road social stuff and drop the EU flagshagging there could be an opening.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
Agreed. My point is, what would the impact have been in the alternate universe where NI was kept as it was, and the tax raid was on the retired?
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
With respect though. It is not higher earners who will swing it. They are already in the Tory camp. It has been the PM's ability to bring a much greater proportion of those on much less over to the Tories. And add them to the high earners and retirees. What is the expected value for those on minimum wage, or close to it?
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
Agreed. My point is, what would the impact have been in the alternate universe where NI was kept as it was, and the tax raid was on the retired?
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
Depends if the Orange-bookers win the fight for the LD's soul. The entirety of the economically liberal portion of the population is homeless, so if they go for some unobjectionable middle of the road social stuff and drop the EU flagshagging there could be an opening.
If Davey goes Orange Book then my vote is up for grabs.
6.25% swing. Some decent Labour results tonight for a change. Possibly confirming the poll isn't an outlier? Although may be very temporary.
I think the Killamarsh result is very much about the local green belt being built on despite Tory promises it wouldnt happen TBH
2 of the 3 NE results were very, very poor for the Tories though too. Tory promises turn out to be bollocks? Whoever would have suspected such an unusual occurrence?
Indeed.
Despite my fun on here this week I am very unlikely to vote Tory in 2024 when push comes to shove.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza. Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now. Funny old game, politics.
5 voted against and 39 abstained
Enough for letters to the 1922
The haste that this was rushed through the Commons from being announced to the Cabinet on Monday morning and voted on by Tuesday evening was really unbecoming.
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Yup, walking this back is going to be extremely difficult which means it won't happen. If the vote was next week the leadership could have taken the temperature of the party over the weekend, seen the polling and then had a rethink on only attacking working people with this tax.
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
I'm not sure about this. The implication seems to be that choosing to raise taxes on working age people rather than the retired was the wrong thing to do (which I agree it definitely was, both morally and fiscally), and therefore the Tories are being punished for it in the polls. I suspect that, in fact, if they'd kept NI where it was but charge it on all pensioner income, the electoral impact would have been far greater.
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
The problem for the Tories is that they rely on working age people to get a majority. It can't be repeated enough on here that in 2017 the average age of voting conservative was 55 and Theresa May lost the majority while in 2019 that crossover age went down to 39. The Tories won a plurality or majority of voters in all age groups from 40+ and were very competitive for 30-39 year olds as well.
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
Agreed. My point is, what would the impact have been in the alternate universe where NI was kept as it was, and the tax raid was on the retired?
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
With respect though. It is not higher earners who will swing it. They are already in the Tory camp. It has been the PM's ability to bring a much greater proportion of those on much less over to the Tories. And add them to the high earners and retirees. What is the expected value for those on minimum wage, or close to it?
To your specific question, those on minimum wage are probably best off in the short run with Labour/LDs, regardless of current Tory policy. Many of them are currently voting Conservative anyway, for other reasons.
But the "PB4" who've disowned the party this week over the NI rise are most definitely high earners.
Compared to the last general election the changes are as follows with the new YouGov poll:
Lab +2% Con -12% LD -2%
Therefore a net 12% has disappeared but they only give us the figures for the 3 main parties? Rubbish reporting. I'd like to know how the Greens, SNP, PC, ReformUK are doing.
@CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau. What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been? And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time. Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was. The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold. It won't.
A decade of retrenchment was not inevitable. That's not what America is doing, they're going for fiscal stimulus and will have a roaring twenties instead.
We could and should have had a roaring twenties as well but it seems the Tories want to strangle it at birth.
As we're coming out of lockdown and furlough is winding up the story a week ago was one of full employment and an abundance of job offers. Optimism was extremely high and the only 'problems' were that there were too many jobs available. That's a great problem to have.
Now its a story of tax rises and people looking at their wallets and thinking what they have to lose. Insanity. Absolute insanity. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
Indeed, hiking taxes in an early stage recovery is beyond idiotic. I suggested the other night, when the rapidly dwindling cadre of PB Tories were continuing to lick Bozza’s behind, that this could be a Brown-style reverse ferret in the making.
@CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau. What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been? And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time. Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was. The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold. It won't.
A decade of retrenchment was not inevitable. That's not what America is doing, they're going for fiscal stimulus and will have a roaring twenties instead.
We could and should have had a roaring twenties as well but it seems the Tories want to strangle it at birth.
As we're coming out of lockdown and furlough is winding up the story a week ago was one of full employment and an abundance of job offers. Optimism was extremely high and the only 'problems' were that there were too many jobs available. That's a great problem to have.
Now its a story of tax rises and people looking at their wallets and thinking what they have to lose. Insanity. Absolute insanity. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
Indeed, hiking taxes in an early stage recovery is beyond idiotic. I suggested the other night, when the rapidly dwindling cadre of PB Tories were continuing to lick Bozza’s behind, that this could be a Brown-style reverse ferret in the making.
@CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau. What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been? And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time. Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was. The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold. It won't.
A decade of retrenchment was not inevitable. That's not what America is doing, they're going for fiscal stimulus and will have a roaring twenties instead.
We could and should have had a roaring twenties as well but it seems the Tories want to strangle it at birth.
As we're coming out of lockdown and furlough is winding up the story a week ago was one of full employment and an abundance of job offers. Optimism was extremely high and the only 'problems' were that there were too many jobs available. That's a great problem to have.
Now its a story of tax rises and people looking at their wallets and thinking what they have to lose. Insanity. Absolute insanity. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
Indeed, hiking taxes in an early stage recovery is beyond idiotic. I suggested the other night, when the rapidly dwindling cadre of PB Tories were continuing to lick Bozza’s behind, that this could be a Brown-style reverse ferret in the making.
I expect the Jobs Tax to be canned.
It should be.
I don't see how it can be.
As I said, Brown canned a similar tax/benefit when it dawned on everyone how grossly unfair it was. In that case, my memory is it was actually in force for a short while, and was then summarily abolished.
Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds
Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year
Lab: 35 (+1) Con: 33 (-5) Lib Dem: 10 (+2)
lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through
And it was evident on here
The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam
The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.
If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.
Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.
The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.
I do think people are overreacting a tad.
I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
Yes, but I called Hartlepool as peak Johnson, in real time. I am a Big Swinging Dick of political prognostication. I laugh in the face of myopic dweebs.
Sorry, but there it is.
There was no need for Hartlepool to be peak Johnson.
This is an entirely self-inflicted error that Johnson had no need to make.
However in hindsight it looks like you're right because of Johnson's hubris in rushing this through.
The last time Labour won a majority they received 35% of the vote whilst the Tories received 32% of the vote.
Which is close to tonight's VI.
Obviously Scotland alone means that won't happen again but amused me.
The care/NI story is clearly the biggest in the news - and the mix of broken promise and naked unfairness are the principal issues, overriding previous support for raising more money for health and care. Arguably (and there’s a parallel with tuition fees) it is the manifesto promise that was the mistake, deliberately intended to self-deny the flexibility to react to the unforeseen, and you get punished even for breaking a foolish promise.
Despite the mirth at the Brexit comments above, I wouldn’t rule out a secondary Brexit factor influencing the poll, either. OK, it’s a niche area, but it is only in the last few weeks as travel has been ‘unlocked’ that pet owners who travel with their pets have found out what Brexit really means for them. I’m on several forums and there has been an explosion of unhappiness - people are well aware that Norwegian and Swiss pets are covered by the passport scheme and hence it is this government’s approach that has created all the difficulty. Add that to the import/export problems many small business owners are facing and the first signs of shortages (and media coverage of stories like no Turkey or toys this Xmas) and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the loss of the Tory support in this poll does indeed pin back to Brexit.
Not least because it is notable that the LibDems have done rather better from the fall in Tory support than Labour, and they haven’t been particularly better at capitalising on the NI concerns.
OT that reminds me. In the words of the great Noddy Holder, it's Christmas. Christmas novelties for cats and dogs are on sale in Sainsbury's. Other supermarkets are available.
The care/NI story is clearly the biggest in the news - and the mix of broken promise and naked unfairness are the principal issues, overriding previous support for raising more money for health and care. Arguably (and there’s a parallel with tuition fees) it is the manifesto promise that was the mistake, deliberately intended to self-deny the flexibility to react to the unforeseen, and you get punished even for breaking a foolish promise.
Despite the mirth at the Brexit comments above, I wouldn’t rule out a secondary Brexit factor influencing the poll, either. OK, it’s a niche area, but it is only in the last few weeks as travel has been ‘unlocked’ that pet owners who travel with their pets have found out what Brexit really means for them. I’m on several forums and there has been an explosion of unhappiness - people are well aware that Norwegian and Swiss pets are covered by the passport scheme and hence it is this government’s approach that has created all the difficulty. Add that to the import/export problems many small business owners are facing and the first signs of shortages (and media coverage of stories like no Turkey or toys this Xmas) and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the loss of the Tory support in this poll does indeed pin back to Brexit.
Not least because it is notable that the LibDems have done rather better from the fall in Tory support than Labour, and they haven’t been particularly better at capitalising on the NI concerns.
But Con was still averaging over 40% in polls until literally a few days ago.
If the other issues were a factor then Con support would have been falling much more prior to the last few days.
Comments
Sunak had already done a plan to get us back to a balanced budget at the last Budget without these tax rises and since then the borrowing figures had kept coming in better than expected not worse than expected.
And the jobs market is doing well. PMIs doing well. High growth now could have fuelled extra spending on whatever Sunak wanted to spend it on without tax rises while following his prior plan.
Instead this madness. And tax rises don't raise as much as they're supposed to because this will discourage activity, so its just a miserable self-inflicted and unnecessary failure.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1436092342155481094?s=20
(Which is why everyone is up.)
The key thing about Hartlepool was that the Conservatives hoovered up the entirety of the Faragist vote, which boosted their share. That's either not happened here, or there's been a big blue to red swing as well.
CON: 35.1% (-13.5)
GRN: 33.5% (+22.4)
LAB: 31.4% (-8.9)
Almost a spectacular win for the Greens 18% swing Con to Green
Castle (Newcastle upon Tyne) by-election result:
LDEM: 42.5% (-5.9)
LAB: 25.1% (-6.0)
CON: 21.4% (+21.4)
GRN: 8.1% (-0.2)
NEP: 2.9% (+2.9)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
No Ind (-12.3) as prev.
Straws in the wind maybe?
Edit. @Stuartinromford got there first.
Enjoy
Exactly where each tooth-point goes
Pensioners know what triple lock means, and they vote.
I am not sure I remember a similar one
the 993 is the best 911 for the road but the gt is the worst 993 for the road. it had big fixed vane geometry turbos and would drop out of boost and lag if you werent very fucking committed.
one handed typing is a pain in the dick
But it will go down like sick with the workers.
pensioners have accepted they don’t need to keep pace with earnings, they don’t wont to be greedy, all pensioners are patriotic and want to be all in together. It’s the young that is greedy. Why shouldn’t care workers on minimum wage end up worse off to protect the wealth of pensioners? What on earth is there not to like about it? Young people work and pay as they earn, old people deserve decency in their retirements. Only in it for themselves the Labour voting youth of today.
this is a level headed government pensioning off Osbornes silly gimmicks with sound fiscal policy everyone with a brain can recognise and get behind. They are fixing roofs Osborne did nothing about.
Lab: 297
Con: 236
Lib Dem: 47
Lab Gain
This poll appears to indicate indeed, 2015 in reverse. Interesting times although let's wait for other polls.
Let us recall this poll back in May.
So quit a swing against CON
Maybe the penny on NI has dropped.
If the Westminster hacks are to be believed, plenty of ministers smelt trouble. But they all decided to stick with Bozza.
Had any Cabinet.minister resigned over this, they'd be utterly vindicated tonight, and could well have been PM by St Edward's Day. But they're all complicit now.
Funny old game, politics.
A couple more polls like this will set things up nicely for the Labour conference in a couple of weeks.
Enough for letters to the 1922
It seems they were afraid that if they paused for breath that it would unravel, but the counterpoint is that if it unravels it has reason to do so and better to do so before you vote on it rather than afterwards.
A less hubristic government could have trailed this properly, seen it go down like a cup of cold sick, then have a rethink instead of committing to it.
Patrick Maguire
@patrickkmaguire
·
1h
No reason for Labour to cue the darts music and declare victory here
They're only in the lead (within the margin of error) by virtue of standing still as nearly one in ten Tory voters switch to Reform UK and a fith to Don't Know – who share their name with Labour's care policy
Aaron Bastani
@AaronBastani
·
15m
Labour led most polls between 2010 and 2015 under Ed Miliband, very often by double digits.
I feel like this stuff has been memory-holed. So, yeah, it's one poll.
During GE19 he accused YouGov and Survation of being "bought and paid for" by Tories. He tried to "re-weight" polls to show Labour actually in the lead.
His contributions should be met with laughter.
I could not believe either that Williamson did not know the national treasure that is Marcus Rashford
You did ask me if I could be tempted to Labour and if they were to put forward a fair taxation scheme without destroying the entrepreneurs and wealth creators then who knows
I am angry tonight
https://www.britainelects.com/2021/09/09/previewing-the-six-council-by-elections-of-09-sep-2021/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
However you look at the facts Bastani, you are utterly wrong.
Isn’t it time you gave up politics and spinning, Bastani? You are just no good at it.
Incidentally I did this poll, so I've done my part!
I don't personally think this can be reversed now that the vote has taken place, I guess the leadership may try and conspire to have it kicked back by the HoL and then quietly drop it but I think the reputational damage is done. The Tory party no is no longer the party of low taxes and getting on in life. That is going to vet difficult to shake without new leadership and an actual reversal of it and maybe actually cutting NI.
To my mind this is Boris' poll tax moment. The Tory party dumped Mrs Thatcher to save the 1992 election, they will need to dump Boris to save 2024 IMO. Labour are heading for 310-320 seats.
Lab +2%
Con -12%
LD -2%
Therefore a net 12% has disappeared but they only give us the figures for the 3 main parties? Rubbish reporting. I'd like to know how the Greens, SNP, PC, ReformUK are doing.
Needs more for a Labour government. Ditching the triple lock will be next, and may loosen the iron grip of the PM on the oldies. Or may not.
At my age I did not expect to to be so angry with Boris and Rishi as I am tonight
As you correctly identified the element missing was fairness
I assumed so, but may be wrong.
Holmsfield and Barlow are Tory strongholds again there is some unpopular building on fields that the villagers dont like though
I'm sure there are plenty of public-spirited pensioners who recognise they've had it much easier than the generations after them will, and are happy to bear the greater portion of the inevitable tax rises to keep public finances afloat. I'm almost as sure that they're outweighed by those who simply won't countenance supporting any party that threatens to raise their personal tax bill by a single farthing.
Tory promises turn out to be bollocks?
Whoever would have suspected such an unusual occurrence?
Instead of flushing yet more money into the NHS black hole, Johnson needed to be tough on the NHS remit, and tough on the causes of NHS demand.
I've already tipped Guildford and Winchester as probable Lib Dem gains in 2024.
So it can change very quickly, based around a catalyst?
But also the big mid term leads, and leads up to polling day, certainly meant nothing in 2015 and ‘92, if anything it encouraged play it safe, don’t voice a policy which may have been the bigger influence of result than polling.
I have already complimented the site for the clear and obvious mood music of unfairness and there are several issues combining to cause thus fall
Tonight's locals also indicate the trend away from Boris
The only question now for Labour is can they capitalise on it
Judging by my friends, family and colleagues around my age this is the single most toxic policy any of them have ever seen. The anecdata definitely matches the polling, people fed up of the Tories but not sure where to go. Philip Thompson, Casino Royale, Robert and I all find ourselves in the same position, three of us were Tory members and now none are going to vote for them.
I'm in a not dissimilar position to the four of you. The question is: who am I going to vote for then, if not the Conservatives? I'm not mad enough to believe that Ed Davey's going into the next election promising to reverse the NI increase. And even if he did, he'd be propping up a Labour government who'd be proposing much bigger tax increases on higher earners. So, in pure expected value terms, Johnson and Sunak have a hell of a long way to go before they stop being my best option. And, I suspect, yours.
With the main story being in that Labour not benefiting, still disliked, untrusted and stuck in the doldrums. I think that is because of Brexit, to go up in polls they need staunch Brexit supporters to ignore the fact Labour was the party of remain. If I am right in this, a small problem for Torys is that Boris owns those voters Labour need as he is the Brexit Man, he is Brexit to them, another Tory leader may just look Tory to them.
Why should we? Politicians don't either.
What is the expected value for those on minimum wage, or close to it?
Despite my fun on here this week I am very unlikely to vote Tory in 2024 when push comes to shove.
Although I will not vote for Starmer either.
But the "PB4" who've disowned the party this week over the NI rise are most definitely high earners.
I expect the Jobs Tax to be canned.
I don't see how it can be.
Emma Raducanu will be on court later tonight.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/tennis/54517113
Anything is possible.
Almost nobody thinks they will gain by paying less for care costs.
Whilst almost everyone thinks they will lose from the NI increase.
He's spending a lot of people's money fixing a problem they weren't that bothered about - and in many cases hadn't ever even thought about.
There was no clamour from the public for any change - Boris should have just left well alone.
He was trying to be far too clever.
The care/NI story is clearly the biggest in the news - and the mix of broken promise and naked unfairness are the principal issues, overriding previous support for raising more money for health and care. Arguably (and there’s a parallel with tuition fees) it is the manifesto promise that was the mistake, deliberately intended to self-deny the flexibility to react to the unforeseen, and you get punished even for breaking a foolish promise.
Despite the mirth at the Brexit comments above, I wouldn’t rule out a secondary Brexit factor influencing the poll, either. OK, it’s a niche area, but it is only in the last few weeks as travel has been ‘unlocked’ that pet owners who travel with their pets have found out what Brexit really means for them. I’m on several forums and there has been an explosion of unhappiness - people are well aware that Norwegian and Swiss pets are covered by the passport scheme and hence it is this government’s approach that has created all the difficulty. Add that to the import/export problems many small business owners are facing and the first signs of shortages (and media coverage of stories like no Turkey or toys this Xmas) and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the loss of the Tory support in this poll does indeed pin back to Brexit.
Not least because it is notable that the LibDems have done rather better from the fall in Tory support than Labour, and they haven’t been particularly better at capitalising on the NI concerns.
- New cases: 168,599
- Average: 148,379 (-1,535)
- In hospital: 101,868 (+518)
- In ICU: 26,451 (+85)
- New deaths: 3,324
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1436143094920007683
If the other issues were a factor then Con support would have been falling much more prior to the last few days.