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Labour have their first opinion poll lead since January – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 9 in General
Labour have their first opinion poll lead since January – politicalbetting.com

Six in 10 voters do not think Boris Johnson or Tories care about keeping taxes low in wake of 1.25% national insurance hike announcementOnly a third of voters think Johnson or Tories care about improving NHS despite cash injection from levy

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    First!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 9
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi or The Saj

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and up. And The Saj is involved too.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Eye tolled ewe sew.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 9
    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    The day the polls changed
  • It does look very like Boris's dementia moment on the same subject
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    Yes, dear. Shall we get nursey to bring you a nice cup of tea?

    Incidentally, it's over.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,632
    edited September 9
    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Even the French are laughing at us
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
  • HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    As I said on the last thread you are far too complacent

    If you had really read this thread with an open mind over the last few days you would have seen this unfolding

    I do expect a general drop in other polls and this looks like the dementia tax repeating itself
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036
    Congratulations to CHB

    I thought his only chance was in LAB conference week


    Apparently not
  • Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Not everything is about Brexit....
    Exactly - this is not brexit it is fairness in taxation
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,442
    Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Err - this isn’t about brexit. This is about shafting the working class / lower income to pay for the asset rich members of the population.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi or The Saj

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and up. And The Saj is involved too.
    Rishi has his fingers all over this.

    And its all entirely unnecessary. Debt interest payments are at record lows, not surging highs. The country had no structural deficit going into this recession. And most importantly the expectations of the market have been set by the USA doing Trillions in fiscal stimulus and that's no doubt going to be paid for by QE. The economy is heating up and looking set for a boom.

    We didn't need to engage in trillions of fiscal stimulus but could have just let the market do its thing, let a boom occur and let HMRC get the taxes that a growing economy produces.

    Instead they've chosen to fuck the economy with higher taxes. Entirely economically illiterate Rishi and entirely unnecessary. The Tories deserve to lose the next election with that attitude.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714
    Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Very strange timing the public has, with this sudden swing happening not after supply chain issues hit the headlines but weeks later after an NI tax rise.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    Good.

    Well done CHB.

    Yes, a very good bet. However, I’d say this is not necessarily bad news for the Tories. They’ve e spent all week talking about an issue on which they poll badly.

    I’m disappointed in the NI increase, but not nearly as angry as you are about it. Sadly this has been mostly true of the Tories since 2010. I actually thought May’s proposal was reasonable enough.

    I wish Johnson and Sunak had had the balls to do things differently, but ultimately, the OAPs will duly vote Tory at the next election. Quite when growing old stops being correlated with becoming a Tory, I don’t know, but I suspect it will be sometime after the current incumbent of Number 10 has left office.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
  • HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    If you've been in power for 11 years, why are you so busy reversing the policies of the first 5 years? Aren't you proud of those years too?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 9
    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    He only fought one GE as leader.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 9

    HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    You are failing to recognise the mood music..the whole thing is a disaster
    The polling also shows a rise in income tax, a rise in inheritance tax, a rise in tax on pensions or savings etc would also be unpopular. There is no popular tax for most people.

    The only tax that would be popular is a CGT rise or financial investments tax but of course that only raises a limited amount and tax on dividends was raised anyway. After Covid the NHS needs extra funds as does social care and it has to be paid for somehow as does all the extra spending we had as a result of Covid. Balance the books now and then go for tax cuts before the next election.

    Thatcher was often far further behind after a decade in power, Labour was often behind by 2008, the equivalent year in terms of their time in power.

    Better to get the hard decisions taken now midterm, Thatcher sensibly did not bother too much what midterm polls showed about her government's popularity and nor should Boris.

    Remember even Ed Miliband often had a midterm lead over Cameron
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 9
    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    He only fought one GE as leader.....
    I seem to recall one of the issues in that campaign was whether or not we should...raise NI...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,960
    A poor but not awful tax change is an extremely eccentric issue on which to wake up to the incompetence and dishonesty of this government, compared with all the other things it has screwed up, but I suppose that's how voters behave.

    Assuming it's not just a blip, of course.
  • Quincel said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    He only fought one GE as leader.....
    I seem to recall one of the issues in that campaign was whether or not we should...raise NI...
    I remember that election as well, when the Conservatives warned Labour's plans for an increase in national insurance was a tax on jobs.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,632
    Quincel said:

    Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Very strange timing the public has, with this sudden swing happening not after supply chain issues hit the headlines but weeks later after an NI tax rise.
    Public services are a complete shambles. The NI rise just reminded voters that the Red Bus was feeding them whoppers.
  • Two thoughts;

    In a different political world, this plan would have been strangled at birth; certainly before seeing the light of day. A combination of "Boris is always right, or you will lose your job" and the insane speed that this has been pushed through before it had been properly road-tested. Even if the government wanted to climb down, they've barely left themselves time to.

    Second thought is the story of when John Major was a junior minister at Social Security. He was trying to unlock extra welfare money for heating, and was able to go to the PM and say (something along the lines of) "it must be awfully hard keeping a room warm with a one bar heater..." And Maggie released the money for the cold weather payments. Both of them had life stories that meant they understood the right thing to do.
    It's harder now, because few of us have that sort of life experience. But Boris and Rishi emphatically don't, which is another part of why blunders like this happen. And the UC thing looks like being the next one.
  • Go on, someone Baxter this poll.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Labour only up 1? This is a far worse poll for Starmer than it is for the government.
  • With the Tories stealing Labour's clothes as the party of high taxes, the Labour Party should unashamedly steal the Tories clothes and become the party of low taxes.

    As I said on my prior thread header the effective real tax rate for a lowly paid graduate now is 49.8% and its ridiculously higher for many other classes of people too.

    Labour should bang on about how high taxes are making life unaffordable and discouraging work and I can suggest a way for Labour to pay for it if they do this too . . . the Laffer Curve. Cutting taxes on working, will encourage more working to go ahead, to be registered on the books properly and will get the economy growing and ultimately more taxes for HMRC. Win, win.

    Come on Labour, seize the opportunity and live up to your name. Cut the taxes on working people. Let those who work for a living be on the same footing as those who don't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 9

    A poor but not awful tax change is an extremely eccentric issue on which to wake up to the incompetence and dishonesty of this government, compared with all the other things it has screwed up, but I suppose that's how voters behave.

    Assuming it's not just a blip, of course.

    Stuff that doesn't directly effect the every day lives of the electorate doesn't often gain much traction or change votes e.g. some dodgy or poor use of public money on certain contracts, doesn't shift the needle, no matter how much the Daily Mail screamed about PFI under Labour or the Guardian does now.

    COVID related decisions which have dominated the news, the government has got a pass on lots of poor choices, because everybody seems all these other countries struggling and the most important decision on vaccines was done well.

    Even the supply issues, the supermarkets aren't out of food. You still go there and can fill up your trolley. And you get the stupid hyperbolic headline, such and such doesn't have diet coke today...and then people go in a couple of days and find there is diet coke.

    The one COVID story that cut through was obviously Big Dom, because all our lives were effected and he decided it didn't really apply to him...and the media put absolutely massive rocket boosters under it.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    You are failing to recognise the mood music..the whole thing is a disaster
    The polling also shows a rise in income tax, a rise in inheritance tax, a rise in tax on pensions or savings etc would also be unpopular. There is no popular tax for most people.

    The only tax that would be popular is a CGT rise or financial investments tax but of course that only raises a limited amount and tax on dividends was raised anyway. After Covid the NHS needs extra funds as does social care and it has to be paid for somehow as does all the extra spending we had as a result of Covid. Balance the books now and then go for tax cuts before the next election.

    Thatcher was often far further behind after a decade in power, Labour was often behind by 2008, the equivalent year in terms of their time in power.

    Better to get the hard decisions taken now midterm, Thatcher sensibly did not bother too much what midterm polls showed about her government's popularity and nor should Boris
    You just do not get the mood music

    It is the unfairness and hitting the low earners and with a deaf ear stopping the £20UC continuing which I have criticised consistently

    It is wrong and Boris may well pay the price

    Remember 44 conservative mps were unhappy yesterday, enough to put letters into the 1922
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    Quincel said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    He only fought one GE as leader.....
    I seem to recall one of the issues in that campaign was whether or not we should...raise NI...
    I remember that election as well, when the Conservatives warned Labour's plans for an increase in national insurance was a tax on jobs.
    Well it's going to be the reason everyone's pay rise next year looks awful. And I suspect a lot of firms will be completely upfront about it - sorry folks but Boris stole the money we planned to give you so your pay rise can only be 1%..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,632

    Congratulations to CHB

    I thought his only chance was in LAB conference week


    Apparently not

    Who is CHB? Don't you owe SKS an apology?. He's overtaken the Tories while remaining invisible. Not a lot of people can do that...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036
    What % are the Greens on?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,442
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    You are failing to recognise the mood music..the whole thing is a disaster
    The polling also shows a rise in income tax, a rise in inheritance tax, a rise in tax on pensions or savings etc would also be unpopular. There is no popular tax for most people.

    The only tax that would be popular is a CGT rise or financial investments tax but of course that only raises a limited amount and tax on dividends was raised anyway. After Covid the NHS needs extra funds as does social care and it has to be paid for somehow as does all the extra spending we had as a result of Covid. Balance the books now and then go for tax cuts before the next election.

    Thatcher was often far further behind after a decade in power, Labour was often behind by 2008, the equivalent year in terms of their time in power.

    Better to get the hard decisions taken now midterm, Thatcher sensibly did not bother too much what midterm polls showed about her government's popularity and nor should Boris.

    Remember even Ed Miliband often had a midterm lead over Cameron
    Tories the party of high tax. Hmmm
  • Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,019
    Social Care has been kicked into touch for so long that proposals to fund it are damned as soon as they are announced. A poisoned chalice has been handed over from Brown to Cameron/Clegg then May and Johnson.

    Labour have kept quiet about how they would tackle the gordian knot of social care, as Starmer thinks that it is to be better to be thought a fool etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 9

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    You are failing to recognise the mood music..the whole thing is a disaster
    The polling also shows a rise in income tax, a rise in inheritance tax, a rise in tax on pensions or savings etc would also be unpopular. There is no popular tax for most people.

    The only tax that would be popular is a CGT rise or financial investments tax but of course that only raises a limited amount and tax on dividends was raised anyway. After Covid the NHS needs extra funds as does social care and it has to be paid for somehow as does all the extra spending we had as a result of Covid. Balance the books now and then go for tax cuts before the next election.

    Thatcher was often far further behind after a decade in power, Labour was often behind by 2008, the equivalent year in terms of their time in power.

    Better to get the hard decisions taken now midterm, Thatcher sensibly did not bother too much what midterm polls showed about her government's popularity and nor should Boris
    You just do not get the mood music

    It is the unfairness and hitting the low earners and with a deaf ear stopping the £20UC continuing which I have criticised consistently

    It is wrong and Boris may well pay the price

    Remember 44 conservative mps were unhappy yesterday, enough to put letters into the 1922
    Put letters into the 1922 and replace with who? Sunak whose tax rise idea this was?

    The fact is the extra spending Covid cost has to be paid for as does the extra funds the NHS and social care needs.

    A rise in income tax would have been just as unpopular, a rise in inheritance tax or a dementia tax even more unpopular.

    Governments sometimes have to take tough decisions, governments normally go behind midterm, it is par for the course.

    Only pathetic wet blankets lose any sleep over that and a mere 2% behind after 11 years in power
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One poll and clearly no real movement to Labour either who are only up 1%.

    2% behind for a governing party that has been in power for 11 years is par for the course. No tax rise will ever be popular, this was the least worst. Better to get the difficult financial decisions out of the way now midterm to give the NHS and social care the top up it needs and balance the books and then can go for tax cuts again before the next general election

    You are failing to recognise the mood music..the whole thing is a disaster
    The polling also shows a rise in income tax, a rise in inheritance tax, a rise in tax on pensions or savings etc would also be unpopular. There is no popular tax for most people.

    The only tax that would be popular is a CGT rise or financial investments tax but of course that only raises a limited amount and tax on dividends was raised anyway. After Covid the NHS needs extra funds as does social care and it has to be paid for somehow as does all the extra spending we had as a result of Covid. Balance the books now and then go for tax cuts before the next election.

    Thatcher was often far further behind after a decade in power, Labour was often behind by 2008, the equivalent year in terms of their time in power.

    Better to get the hard decisions taken now midterm, Thatcher sensibly did not bother too much what midterm polls showed about her government's popularity and nor should Boris
    You just do not get the mood music

    It is the unfairness and hitting the low earners and with a deaf ear stopping the £20UC continuing which I have criticised consistently

    It is wrong and Boris may well pay the price

    Remember 44 conservative mps were unhappy yesterday, enough to put letters into the 1922
    Maybe there was going to be a reshuffle today, and the PM thought better of it. After all, the promoted won't be that grateful (they've just had their essential brilliance recognised), and as for the sacked...

    ... there's a John Major story about them, as well. It involves a rude word.
  • Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Ooh that looks like it could be enough that they're ahead of the Tories in England and Wales for non-Scottish votes were the SNP abstains. That avoids a huge headache for them if it happens.

    The dangerzone is Labour behind the Tories but ahead on SNP votes. If they can be ahead with SNP abstentions that's much better for Labour.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714
    Roger said:

    Congratulations to CHB

    I thought his only chance was in LAB conference week


    Apparently not

    Who is CHB? Don't you owe SKS an apology?. He's overtaken the Tories while remaining invisible. Not a lot of people can do that...
    CHB is a user on this site, full name CorrectHorseBattery if memory serves, who has been prominently promoting the bet on a Labour lead for weeks and stating they had a sizeable sum on it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    Eh, there have been dips before and then they rebound, though dipping to this level is because they did already seem to be down a few points on average. It'll be interesting to see if the tax rise plan is one of those things that marks a transition point though - it's pretty random what does. But good news for Labour, no matter if it lasts or not.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198
    dr_spyn said:

    Social Care has been kicked into touch for so long that proposals to fund it are damned as soon as they are announced. A poisoned chalice has been handed over from Brown to Cameron/Clegg then May and Johnson.

    Labour have kept quiet about how they would tackle the gordian knot of social care, as Starmer thinks that it is to be better to be thought a fool etc.

    I think it was more - when your enemy is making a mistake leave them to it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 9
    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it helps stir up a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
  • Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Ooh that looks like it could be enough that they're ahead of the Tories in England and Wales for non-Scottish votes were the SNP abstains. That avoids a huge headache for them if it happens.

    The dangerzone is Labour behind the Tories but ahead on SNP votes. If they can be ahead with SNP abstentions that's much better for Labour.
    It would immediately see the conservatives use the same line about being in the SNP pocket

    Politics has just got very interesting with many unknowns
  • tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it held stir a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
    You should try and see a GP about that, it sounds nasty.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714
    tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it held stir a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
    British Polling Council rules say the full tables have to be released within 2 working days of the poll results going public. See rule 2.3 at the link below.

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects-and-rules/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,632
    Perhaps Phillip Thompson understands this dysfunctional party more than HYUFD. Who'd have thought?
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 167
    Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Even the French are laughing at us

    What are you on about.

    This is in relation to the public not liking a tax rise even to fund the NHS, simple as that
  • tlg86 said:

    Labour only up 1? This is a far worse poll for Starmer than it is for the government.

    Don't agree sorry tlg. A Tory collapse is the story and its outside the realms of Margin of Error - and anecdotally it matches here where at least four of us have stopped supporting the Party over it.

    Starmer hasn't hoovered up the votes, but then its unusual to get an immediate Con -> Lab swing, just as the Tories didn't gain in past years necessarily from an immediately Lab -> Con swing. He's got the potential to hoover up votes in the future if they remain floating though.

    Con falling is much worse news for Boris than it is from Starmer. And its entirely unnecessary and self-inflicted.
  • Nunu3 said:

    Roger said:

    At last voters are realising what a pile of shit Brexit is.

    I can't believe it took so long

    Even the French are laughing at us

    What are you on about.

    This is in relation to the public not liking a tax rise even to fund the NHS, simple as that
    There are some who just cannot understand somethings are not Brexit and this most certainly is one
  • tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it held stir a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
    The BPC rules are that the full data tables have to be released 2 working days after the initial results are released.

    Because polls have a lot of questions in them it isn't possible for the client to include them in their articles.

    We've been spoiled by the likes of Opinium, Survation, and Deltapoll, plus YouGov occasionally published the tables the same time as the client publishes the article.

    I would prefer it if the BPC ensured all the VI figures were published as a tweet by them the moment the article is published.

    The reality is that YouGov will have published the tables by lunchtime tomorrow.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    @CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau.
    What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been?
    And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time.
    Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was.
    The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold.
    It won't.
  • Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Ooh that looks like it could be enough that they're ahead of the Tories in England and Wales for non-Scottish votes were the SNP abstains. That avoids a huge headache for them if it happens.

    The dangerzone is Labour behind the Tories but ahead on SNP votes. If they can be ahead with SNP abstentions that's much better for Labour.
    It would immediately see the conservatives use the same line about being in the SNP pocket

    Politics has just got very interesting with many unknowns
    Don't expect that to have the same reaction as it triggered nine years ago. People are used to it now so it won't work as much, plus we're not in the immediate aftermath of the 2014 referendum anymore, plus Sturgeon is more popular in England than Salmond was.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Quincel said:

    tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it held stir a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
    British Polling Council rules say the full tables have to be released within 2 working days of the poll results going public. See rule 2.3 at the link below.

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects-and-rules/
    In addition to the information outlined above, the public opinion polling organisation responsible for conducting the survey that has entered the public domain will place the following information on its own web site within 2 working days of the data being published.

    That’s pretty terrible really and also bollocks. A more accurate description would be within two days of some part of a poll result being published.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 167

    A poor but not awful tax change is an extremely eccentric issue on which to wake up to the incompetence and dishonesty of this government, compared with all the other things it has screwed up, but I suppose that's how voters behave.

    Assuming it's not just a blip, of course.

    Voters don't care unless it personally affects them in a very direct way, I guess.
  • dixiedean said:

    @CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau.
    What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been?
    And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time.
    Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was.
    The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold.
    It won't.

    A decade of retrenchment was not inevitable. That's not what America is doing, they're going for fiscal stimulus and will have a roaring twenties instead.

    We could and should have had a roaring twenties as well but it seems the Tories want to strangle it at birth.

    As we're coming out of lockdown and furlough is winding up the story a week ago was one of full employment and an abundance of job offers. Optimism was extremely high and the only 'problems' were that there were too many jobs available. That's a great problem to have.

    Now its a story of tax rises and people looking at their wallets and thinking what they have to lose. Insanity. Absolute insanity. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036
    Maybe a good day to have a by election in Pulpstars old stomping ground of Killamarsh

    Lab Gain??

    Doubt it but volatility this week might make it possible
  • Tesla Model S Plaid just set official world speed record for a production electric car at Nurburgring. Completely unmodified, directly from factory.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1436086743720251394?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    tlg86 said:

    Labour only up 1? This is a far worse poll for Starmer than it is for the government.

    Don't agree sorry tlg. A Tory collapse is the story and its outside the realms of Margin of Error - and anecdotally it matches here where at least four of us have stopped supporting the Party over it.

    Starmer hasn't hoovered up the votes, but then its unusual to get an immediate Con -> Lab swing, just as the Tories didn't gain in past years necessarily from an immediately Lab -> Con swing. He's got the potential to hoover up votes in the future if they remain floating though.

    Con falling is much worse news for Boris than it is from Starmer. And its entirely unnecessary and self-inflicted.
    Was musing today that the 4, I think, are all prominent members of the PB Youth Wing. (Under 50)? Maybe, this is just coalescence by age like the rest of the public?
  • I wonder if in Scotland and Wales this tax has bombed like Thatchers poll tax
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 167
    All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.

    (I know its NI, but still)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it held stir a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
    The BPC rules are that the full data tables have to be released 2 working days after the initial results are released.

    Because polls have a lot of questions in them it isn't possible for the client to include them in their articles.

    We've been spoiled by the likes of Opinium, Survation, and Deltapoll, plus YouGov occasionally published the tables the same time as the client publishes the article.

    I would prefer it if the BPC ensured all the VI figures were published as a tweet by them the moment the article is published.

    The reality is that YouGov will have published the tables by lunchtime tomorrow.
    I’m not sure it really matters because the voters won’t be thinking about this when they vote. But I think it’s terrible practice.

    When we publish official stats we have to pre-announce the date of publication four weeks in advance (ideally more). Let’s just say explaining the importance of this to some non-stattos can be, err, challenging.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
    Yes, but I called Hartlepool as peak Johnson, in real time. I am a Big Swinging Dick of political prognostication. I laugh in the face of myopic dweebs.

    Sorry, but there it is.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    What % are the Greens on?

    Unknown. The article only lists the Lab/Con figures and some other questions about the NI tax rise itself, and the tweet adds the LD figure only.
    This is something that really boils my piss. By not showing the full poll, it held stir a narrative that this is bad for the government but actually I think it’s terrible for Starmer.

    @TheScreamingEagles - is this something that could be raised with the polling council? If I only released half my stats at 09:30 on the dot I’d be getting a bollocking.
    The BPC rules are that the full data tables have to be released 2 working days after the initial results are released.

    Because polls have a lot of questions in them it isn't possible for the client to include them in their articles.

    We've been spoiled by the likes of Opinium, Survation, and Deltapoll, plus YouGov occasionally published the tables the same time as the client publishes the article.

    I would prefer it if the BPC ensured all the VI figures were published as a tweet by them the moment the article is published.

    The reality is that YouGov will have published the tables by lunchtime tomorrow.
    I’m not sure it really matters because the voters won’t be thinking about this when they vote. But I think it’s terrible practice.

    When we publish official stats we have to pre-announce the date of publication four weeks in advance (ideally more). Let’s just say explaining the importance of this to some non-stattos can be, err, challenging.
    The ONS is the gold standard.

    I don't think we realise how lucky we are on that front and the power of the head of the UK Statistics Authority publicly calling out the Prime Minister downwards for using misleading stats.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    edited September 9
    IshmaelZ said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
    Yes, but I called Hartlepool as peak Johnson, in real time. I am a Big Swinging Dick of political prognostication. I laugh in the face of myopic dweebs.

    Sorry, but there it is.
    There was no need for Hartlepool to be peak Johnson.

    This is an entirely self-inflicted error that Johnson had no need to make.

    However in hindsight it looks like you're right because of Johnson's hubris in rushing this through.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195

    Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Or Conservatives short by 58 then?
  • Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Or Conservatives short by 58 then?
    Yes but it is usual to quote the largest party
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714

    Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Or Conservatives short by 58 then?
    Given the feelings of the other parties to Lab/Con I think it is fair to say that if this result did occur Starmer would be in a much stronger position to become PM.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,632

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    I think it's much more significant than that. This isn't about one tax rise which hardly anyone understands and no one has yet felt. This is about people seeing things with their own eyes. They've been taken on a ride and it's dawning on them that it was a chimera. A one way ticket to palookaville. The number of people who I'm hearing saying the police are a waste of time the NHS are non existent and the roads are seizing up......I quit BUPA this week because even they've stopped functioning...
  • Quincel said:

    Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Or Conservatives short by 58 then?
    Given the feelings of the other parties to Lab/Con I think it is fair to say that if this result did occur Starmer would be in a much stronger position to become PM.
    Even if the DUP/UUP won every NI seat there's just not enough votes for a Conservative led administration.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    Like every other Con blip in two weeks time this will have been forgotten about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    ·
    9m
    Ladies & Gentlemen. The series has come to an end. After 149 straight Conservative leads Labour take a lead. No doubt alarm bells are winning in No 10 ...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036
    Nunu3 said:

    All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.

    (I know its NI, but still)

    Is scrapping the triple lock for a year also a factor here?
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,213
    Labour hold in North Tyneside.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    dixiedean said:

    @CorrectHorseBattery lives up to his name! Chapeau.
    What a shame this has already been voted on. Were it voted on tomorrow, I wonder how many rebels there would have been?
    And threatening a re-shuffle has diminishing returns. Can't imagine even the dimmest back bencher will fall for it next time.
    Been saying for a while that I don't think the public, or the media, or much of the political class has processed what a truly seismic event the pandemic was.
    The costs were horrendous, and a decade of retrenchment is inevitable. The public hasn't been groomed for that. Boris' knee jerk fallback into boosterism prevented it. The idea that we'd get vaccinated, and everything would be back to normal has been allowed to take hold.
    It won't.

    A decade of retrenchment was not inevitable. That's not what America is doing, they're going for fiscal stimulus and will have a roaring twenties instead.

    We could and should have had a roaring twenties as well but it seems the Tories want to strangle it at birth.

    As we're coming out of lockdown and furlough is winding up the story a week ago was one of full employment and an abundance of job offers. Optimism was extremely high and the only 'problems' were that there were too many jobs available. That's a great problem to have.

    Now its a story of tax rises and people looking at their wallets and thinking what they have to lose. Insanity. Absolute insanity. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
    Of course you are right. Perhaps I ought to have said "a decade of retrenchment is inevitable from a Party who has spent the last decade bludgeoning us with slogans about fixing the roof, balancing the budget, etc., etc."
    Me. I'm a Keynesian. Now isn't the time to be worrying about a deficit, or scaling back spending, or raising taxes. But the Tories are the Party you can trust with the economy aren't they?
  • Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide :lol:
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195
    Roger said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    I think it's much more significant than that. This isn't about one tax rise which hardly anyone understands and no one has yet felt. This is about people seeing things with their own eyes. They've been taken on a ride and it's dawning on them that it was a chimera. A one way ticket to palookaville. The number of people who I'm hearing saying the police are a waste of time the NHS are non existent and the roads are seizing up......I quit BUPA this week because even they've stopped functioning...
    Think you might be right. The tax rise is the straw that broke the camel's back. But discontent has been rumbling in the background over lots of issues - things you mention, Covid, Afghanistan, migrants crossing the sea, and so on.

    Labour's score isn't that good: the opportunity comes in the declining score for the Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited September 9

    IshmaelZ said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
    Yes, but I called Hartlepool as peak Johnson, in real time. I am a Big Swinging Dick of political prognostication. I laugh in the face of myopic dweebs.

    Sorry, but there it is.
    There was no need for Hartlepool to be peak Johnson.

    This is an entirely self-inflicted error that Johnson had no need to make.

    However in hindsight it looks like you're right because of Johnson's hubris in rushing this through.
    My anger is directed at the £20UC loss where it is really needed

    And Williamson not recognising Marcus Rashford a national treasure

    My membership of the conservative party has lapsed and I genuinely feel homeless tonight

    While I do not agree with everything you have said on taxation I could genuinely be tempted to vote for another party if they had a fairer offer but not one that soaks the rich

    We have to encourage entrepreneurs and investments
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963

    James Morris
    @jamesdmorris
    Replying to
    @jamesdmorris
    I think the main thing is that polls create the appearance of attitudes people don’t actually have.

    Most people have never thought about whether NI should fund social care. So their instinctive response is v open to change based on framing and information.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,632
    edited September 9

    Nunu3 said:

    All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.

    (I know its NI, but still)

    Is scrapping the triple lock for a year also a factor here?
    Nobody except the nerds on here have the slightest idea what 'triple lock' means. Have you ever been to the Tory heartlands? Places like Hartlepool
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
    Yes, but I called Hartlepool as peak Johnson, in real time. I am a Big Swinging Dick of political prognostication. I laugh in the face of myopic dweebs.

    Sorry, but there it is.
    There was no need for Hartlepool to be peak Johnson.

    This is an entirely self-inflicted error that Johnson had no need to make.

    However in hindsight it looks like you're right because of Johnson's hubris in rushing this through.
    The downwards drift has been happening for a while, albeit from stratospheric to pretty good.

    The bottom line is that several of Johnson's ministers (no names, Private Pike) just aren't very good at their jobs, and some of them are trying to do things that probably wouldn't work even with competent ministers. And each little failure costs the Conservatives some votes. In that sense, Hartlepool (or just afterwards) was the triumphant peak.

    But this week has been something special to behold.

    I'm a physicist not a classicist, unlike the PM. But I'm pretty sure that hubris wasn't followed by whatever the Greek is for "massive ongoing success for a decade".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036
    slade said:

    Labour hold in North Tyneside.

    Any numbers?

    May 2021 result Lab 1575 C 746
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195

    Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    Or Conservatives short by 58 then?
    Yes but it is usual to quote the largest party
    Yes, I know that. I just enjoyed saying that the Conservatives were further away from a majority than Labour! We've waited a long time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,743
    tlg86 said:

    Labour only up 1? This is a far worse poll for Starmer than it is for the government.

    Not really. Scotland is gone forever, were that not the case (not Starmer's fault) it would be in the healthy thirties, and as to Scotland don't forget Nippy doesn't find Bozza as irresistible as most...

    Nonetheless, let's not get too carried away by one outlier.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Exclusive:

    Tory support has fallen to lowest level since 2019 election in wake of National Insurance hike, Yougov poll for Times finds

    Labour has taken a lead over Tories for first time since January this year

    Lab: 35 (+1)
    Con: 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem: 10 (+2)

    lol. The genius of Bojo is no more
    It is fairness or lack of it that seems to have cut through

    And it was evident on here
    The tax hike is theoretically justifiable, but the execution was awful. A bit like Biden quitting Vietnam

    The worst of it is the creation of a whole new tax, sacred in its virtuousness, which will therefore not only grow.

    If these polls persist Boris is in trouble
    A big problem for the Tories, all of previous decisions could be laid squarely on Boris. They always had the escape plan of ditching him and going with somebody like Dishy Rishi.

    Problem now is Rishi is the architect of not only an unpopular rise, but even worse its a whole tax, where we all know its only ever going to go up and up and
    Not really, as I commented earlier this week Rishi kept himself away from a lot of the original announcement.

    The biggest concern is that in Boros's rush to get the tax increase through he didn't provide time for the general public to have to time react to the plan after thinking. The initial polling was only good because people didn't see how unfair it was. Once they discovered the impact it had on them the end result was obvious
    You can't be the chancellor, introduce a whole new tax and then avoid the blame....if people didn't notice now, Labour will make sure they know if he was to become leader.
    Gordon Brown tried it approximately a hundred times, and he only just lost in 2010.

    I do think people are overreacting a tad.
    I generally avoid doing a thread on a single poll (pace Ipsos MORI leader ratings) but I made an exception here considering the betting angle here that Mike tipped a while back and a few people piled in on.
    Sure, the thread is totally fair comment. I'm talking about the "it's over" type reactions below the line.
    Yes, but I called Hartlepool as peak Johnson, in real time. I am a Big Swinging Dick of political prognostication. I laugh in the face of myopic dweebs.

    Sorry, but there it is.
    There was no need for Hartlepool to be peak Johnson.

    This is an entirely self-inflicted error that Johnson had no need to make.

    However in hindsight it looks like you're right because of Johnson's hubris in rushing this through.
    The last time Labour won a majority they received 35% of the vote whilst the Tories received 32% of the vote.

    Which is close to tonight's VI.

    Obviously Scotland alone means that won't happen again but amused me.
  • I'm very glad that I stuck to my own principles and called out the party I used to support, instead of swapping my principles when the party changes theirs.

    Can the last PB Tory please turn off the light.
  • Nunu3 said:

    All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.

    (I know its NI, but still)

    Is scrapping the triple lock for a year also a factor here?
    Not for me but it could be
  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    Well well
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036

    slade said:

    Labour hold in North Tyneside.

    Any numbers?

    May 2021 result Lab 1575 C 746
    Here we go 0.35% swing to Lab


    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    30s
    Camperdown (North Tyneside) by-election result:

    LAB: 66.7% (+7.2)
    CON: 24.5% (+6.5)
    GRN: 5.4% (+5.4)
    LDEM: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Labour HOLD.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 600

    Go on, someone Baxter this poll.

    283 Labour 268 conservative

    Labour short by 43
    That would allow Labour to run a minority government and dare the other parties to vote with the Tories.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,743

    Tesla Model S Plaid just set official world speed record for a production electric car at Nurburgring. Completely unmodified, directly from factory.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1436086743720251394?s=20

    Was Adam Price driving?

    Good night!
  • Roger said:

    Nunu3 said:

    All those polls that said the public would accept a penny on income tax if it went to the NHS were wrong.

    (I know its NI, but still)

    Is scrapping the triple lock for a year also a factor here?
    Nobody except the nerds on here have the slightest idea what 'triple lock' means. Have you ever been to the Tory heartlands? Places like Hartlepool
    Pensioners most certainly do and the reduction from 8% to 2.5% was not polling well though I had accepted it as necessary
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,743
    Alistair said:

    Like every other Con blip in two weeks time this will have been forgotten about.

    Nonetheless, enjoy it whilst you can.
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