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Debt of Honour – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Sandpit said:

    All down to Root now. He needs to get a ton before he runs out of partners.

    India's dreadfully slow over rate will probably end up saving England in the ultimate analysis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Leon said:

    Yes, interbreeding is a problem. But surely we can find a wildcat species sufficiently different from domestic cats that they can’t hybridise?

    Failing that, SNOW LEOPARDS

    Why not? Let’s be imaginative. Dwarf rhino on Dartmoor
    Nice thought! But nonnative species are a big no-no. You're stuck with Felis sylvestris sylvestris (Scottish Wildcat) or nothing. Apart of course for lynx. Lynx will do very nicely indeed for a wild cat.

    Happily reports last week show beaver are now v. prevalent. Numbers now being locally controlled.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/10/wild-beaver-numbers-surge-to-1000-across-scotlands-southern-highlands
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    'Remember that time we stormed the Winter Palace?'
    'Or that rather nice Austin-Putilov I climbed on top of and gave a speech off?'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    IshmaelZ said:

    Hard to imagine a worse advertisement for unfettered democracy than Athens. It lurched from one judicial murder to another on a kind of "The Sun says: String 'em up!" basis. Exactly this happened to Pericles' son https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pericles_the_Younger
    before anybody starts giving it large about that bloody funeral oration. Pericles himself was a grade A c--t who paid for the Parthenon out of money extorted out of Athens' "allies" by barefaced imperialism (which is why it's fun to troll the modern Greeks by pointing out that if we return their marbles it's only fair to return a substantial proportion of them to the cities of Western Turkey which paid for them in the first place). In the same year as he made that tedious oration, he got a decree passed which had the remarkable rider that anyone proposing the repeal of the decree (in the same assembly as passed it in the first place) should be put to death - probably still the single most barefaced and cynical abuse of democracy in the history of the institution at least till 2016. And his response to the Spartan invasion of Attica was the utterly insane zero-Lacedaimonian, permanent lockdown policy of evacuating the entire country into the city of Athens, with the inevitable financial ruin, depression and plague that you'd expect. And the final outcome of the war he started, well after his death, was the utter destruction of Athens. A real Boris Johnson of a leader.

    All in wikipedia, in case you think I exaggerate.
    Strong evidence on favour of term limits...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910

    'Remember that time we stormed the Winter Palace?'
    Have you done the White Nights? They are incredible. I’d read that the mixture of endless light, vodka, music, water, auroras, fires, and beautiful St Petersburg induces a kind of bacchanalian madness, a hedonic state of hallucination, tinged with violence

    It’s true.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Leon said:

    I’m doing the Pnyx tomorrow tho there are rumours it might be shut because fire risk….
    Ohhhh. Fingers crossed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    Leon said:

    Have you done the White Nights? They are incredible. I’d read that the mixture of endless light, vodka, music, water, auroras, fires, and beautiful St Petersburg induces a kind of bacchanalian madness, a hedonic state of hallucination, tinged with violence

    It’s true.
    No, but it's on the list.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    AlistairM said:

    I know quite a few married men where from the outside it looks very much though that it is the wives are supremely dominant. In a number of cases the sort of language the women use towards their partners is verbal abuse. If the genders were reversed then it would cause an outcry. As it is women doing it though and men are the recipients it is not seen as a problem.

    Middle aged men though have been trained to not complain and certainly never to do anything back. My personal belief is that there are a large number of middle-aged men who are in abusive relationships (vast majority probably solely verbal) but cannot see a way out. I would not be surprised if they do manage to get out of such a situation that they have no desire to go back!
    I would concur with your belief. Domestic abuse of men is definetly something that happens. And the thing is: women can be prosecuted in the same way as men are, if the authorities are bought in; as the legislation is gender neutral. I suspect that the probability of the authorities being bought in is much lower where men are the victims, as men don't see what is happening as abuse; and there is definetly a cultural tendency to view women as victims. In the end the reality is that relationships are just rather complex and expressions of power are not completely reducible to gender, as some people would like us to believe.

    https://www.stowefamilylaw.co.uk/blog/2018/04/17/22-year-old-becomes-first-woman-convicted-of-coercive-behaviour/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Weird how there wasn’t this criticism of the Welsh and Scottish governments when they made this change a week ago.

    It’s almost as if the argument is political.



    Dr Zubaida Haque @Zubhaque
    This was one of the busiest weekends in the whole pandemic and as Sept approaches it will only get busier. This is possibly the *worst time* with #DeltaVariant wave AND incomplete vaxx rollout to tell vaccinated people that their behaviour doesn't matter


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1427250714443665411?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2021

    No one on here will be surprised to learn that John Bolton thinks this has been a disaster and blames Biden as much as Trump.


    "Ironically, Biden’s withdrawal policy is virtually indistinguishable from Donald Trump’s, which was well underway when he left office."

    "Now our departure will imperil us all. This is a strategic lesson, which, I fear, we will learn at great cost."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/16/joe-bidens-bungled-afghan-exit-calamity-america-west/

    Yes, to be fair to Bolton the neocons are now totally out of power in the Biden-Harris White House and the Congress and indeed are not close to Trump either. The neocons are now the foreign policy opposition not the foreign policy government.

    As Liz Cheney said yesterday there are consequences from non intervention as much as intervention, those who have been pushing for withdrawal for years now have in the White House one of their own. If it goes wrong they have nobody to blame but themselves
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    No. Terrible adverts. Quite happy with L'Oreal Fresh Extreme.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    As so often, Cyclefree, well said.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    You could be right. If it's seen as a humiliation then it could feed into a second MAGA narrative etc.

    Much depends on the Taliban, probably. If they keep things fairly low profile then it could well be forgotten by 2024. If they commit high profile atrocities and/or encourage/allow overseas terror using Afghanistan as a base then it could be a hot issue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    India's dreadfully slow over rate will probably end up saving England in the ultimate analysis.
    Yeah, we could end up running out of light before we run out of overs. Looks like we might get some rain as well.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    darkage said:

    I would concur with your belief. Domestic abuse of men is definetly something that happens. And the thing is: women can be prosecuted in the same way as men are, if the authorities are bought in; as the legislation is gender neutral. I suspect that the probability of the authorities being bought in is much lower where men are the victims, as men don't see what is happening as abuse; and there is definetly a cultural tendency to view women as victims. In the end the reality is that relationships are just rather complex and expressions of power are not completely reducible to gender, as some people would like us to believe.

    https://www.stowefamilylaw.co.uk/blog/2018/04/17/22-year-old-becomes-first-woman-convicted-of-coercive-behaviour/
    Maybe the "cultural tendency to view women as victims" exists because, er, women nearly always are the victims, particularly of violent and sexual abuse?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    My impression is Americans were fed up with Afghanistan, but there was no huge pressure from the public to pull out. Unlike Vietnam, casualties were modest, and the Taliban had been contained.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    Australia's broken through the 500 daily cases barrier. It will be a very difficult decision to relax the lockdown, even when their vaccination rate improves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    Carnyx said:

    Nice thought! But nonnative species are a big no-no. You're stuck with Felis sylvestris sylvestris (Scottish Wildcat) or nothing. Apart of course for lynx. Lynx will do very nicely indeed for a wild cat.

    Happily reports last week show beaver are now v. prevalent. Numbers now being locally controlled.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/10/wild-beaver-numbers-surge-to-1000-across-scotlands-southern-highlands
    The definition of ‘native’ is confounding tho, as you surely know. Species here for a thousand years? Are rabbits (introduced by the Romans) non-native? Species here when Britain became an island? Species here at the end of the ice age? When? What is native?

    Relatedly, I note that Athens is now infested with parakeets, just like London. Jimi Hendrix has a lot to answer for

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Weird how there wasn’t this criticism of the Welsh and Scottish governments when they made this change a week ago.

    It’s almost as if the argument is political.



    Dr Zubaida Haque @Zubhaque
    This was one of the busiest weekends in the whole pandemic and as Sept approaches it will only get busier. This is possibly the *worst time* with #DeltaVariant wave AND incomplete vaxx rollout to tell vaccinated people that their behaviour doesn't matter


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1427250714443665411?s=20

    Eh? Rules are different in Scotland. Still have to have a test even if fully vaccinated.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Sean_F said:

    My impression is Americans were fed up with Afghanistan, but there was no huge pressure from the public to pull out. Unlike Vietnam, casualties were modest, and the Taliban had been contained.
    Perhaps Biden was just bored of it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, to be fair to Bolton the neocons are now totally out of power in the Biden-Harris White House and the Congress and indeed are not close to Trump either. The neocons are now the foreign policy opposition not the foreign policy government.

    As Liz Cheney said yesterday there are consequences from non intervention as much as intervention, those who have been pushing for withdrawal for years now have in the White House one of their own. If it goes wrong they have nobody to blame but themselves
    As I understood it, the neo-cons are closer to Biden than to Trump. They tolerate the former, but they simply cannot abide the latter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    Leon said:

    You’ll be relieved to hear I made it up and down the Acropolis and am now having a ‘refreshing’ ouzo overlooking the Ancient Agora, which I intend to visit next. Probably.

    Why is ouzo delicious and welcoming in Greece. Yet repulsive if drunk anywhere else?
    Isn't it simply the heat ?
    Similarly with Pernod.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    The definition of ‘native’ is confounding tho, as you surely know. Species here for a thousand years? Are rabbits (introduced by the Romans) non-native? Species here when Britain became an island? Species here at the end of the ice age? When? What is native?

    Relatedly, I note that Athens is now infested with parakeets, just like London. Jimi Hendrix has a lot to answer for

    Berlin has a raccoon problem which I only discovered after seeing one. I was a bit pished at the time so it was definitely one of those cartoonish rubbing your eyes moments.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Perhaps Biden was just bored of it.
    Perhaps he mixed it up with somewhere else.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675

    As I understood it, the neo-cons are closer to Biden than to Trump. They tolerate the former, but they simply cannot abide the latter.
    Trump is the ultimate non interventionist. That's when he has a coherent thought at all.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Leon said:

    The definition of ‘native’ is confounding tho, as you surely know. Species here for a thousand years? Are rabbits (introduced by the Romans) non-native? Species here when Britain became an island? Species here at the end of the ice age? When? What is native?

    Relatedly, I note that Athens is now infested with parakeets, just like London. Jimi Hendrix has a lot to answer for

    Oh, quite. General consensus seems to be what fits into the extant ecosystems and lived here at one time. So European beaver OK albeit extinct here for several centuries, American species not acceptable. Woolly rhino were native, but no tundra left (never mind woolly rhino), so scratch that. And IIRC the kind of elephant you had in the warm periods of the ice ages was a different kind from the surviving ones, so none to introduce, ditto woolly mammoth from the cold periods.





  • IshmaelZ said:

    What's Pornhub?
    DON'T GOOGLE IT!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps he mixed it up with somewhere else.
    I wonder how much he's influenced by settling scores from the Obama era when his opinion was ignored.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Like the fall of Kabul.........
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    DON'T GOOGLE IT!!
    Def not at work...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    Controversial opinion: the Parthenon is disappointing

    OK I’ve seen it before. But that was 35 years ago. OK it’s much more restricted now, you have to walk a certain circuit, blah blah. But covid also means I saw it with relatively few tourists - like a weekday at Conwy Castle - not the usual hordes

    Yet still, meh. It is not moving. There is no soul there any more. Too many destructions and restorations? They’ve mucked about with it so much they might as well rebuild the whole damn thing and admit it’s fake, like newgrange or Knossos

    Or just give what’s left to the British Museum. We’ve already got the best bits (we really have). We can rebuild it on Parliament Hill, complete with marbles. I shall start a popular campaign for this, tonight
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2021

    As I understood it, the neo-cons are closer to Biden than to Trump. They tolerate the former, but they simply cannot abide the latter.
    They were, now he has abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban he is no better than Bernie Sanders as far as they are concerned.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    I agree that the lack of a draft for Iraq/Afghanistan means that there is less strong opposition here compared to Vietnam, but I still feel that overall most Americans wanted out and do not want to go back in at any price, so I don't think overall there will be no net impact on Biden's position: for the withdrawal itself.

    Where Biden could be seriously damaged is if the evacuation results in any significant American casualties, or worse, hostages taken. In that case, the Republicans will turn it into Benghazi on steroids and if they regain the House next year will open the mother of all inquiries, but it will be purely on the actual evacuation, not the decision to withdraw itself. If there are no casualties or hostages, and they take the House, then there will not be an inquiry into the withdrawal as Trump would attract the most blame for the actual decision.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Berlin has a raccoon problem which I only discovered after seeing one. I was a bit pished at the time so it was definitely one of those cartoonish rubbing your eyes moments.
    Didn't know that. A quick check shows that fried raccoon is a thing:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/racoon-caused-explosion-at-berlin-siemensstadt-power-station-lkq0n3jwk
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Sean_F said:

    My impression is Americans were fed up with Afghanistan, but there was no huge pressure from the public to pull out. Unlike Vietnam, casualties were modest, and the Taliban had been contained.
    70+% support for pulling out, I believe. Pretty overwhelming. Probably would have been less if Trump hadn't made "no more foreign wars" one of his MAGA themes over the last several years.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    edited August 2021

    Perhaps Biden was just bored of it.
    Politico thinks he was bored of it as far back as 2010.
  • Ashes going to be 5-0 Aussie whitewashing job aren't they.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Controversial opinion: the Parthenon is disappointing

    OK I’ve seen it before. But that was 35 years ago. OK it’s much more restricted now, you have to walk a certain circuit, blah blah. But covid also means I saw it with relatively few tourists - like a weekday at Conwy Castle - not the usual hordes

    Yet still, meh. It is not moving. There is no soul there any more. Too many destructions and restorations? They’ve mucked about with it so much they might as well rebuild the whole damn thing and admit it’s fake, like newgrange or Knossos

    Or just give what’s left to the British Museum. We’ve already got the best bits (we really have). We can rebuild it on Parliament Hill, complete with marbles. I shall start a popular campaign for this, tonight

    Not one I'll be joining you on. Have you been to the Acropolis museum ? The copies that are up there on the top floor, against the backdrop of the Parthenon, show where I think the marbles should be, in the right physical context.

    It also has a great restaurant, with a great view out onto the balcony area.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    kinabalu said:

    70+% support for pulling out, I believe. Pretty overwhelming. Probably would have been less if Trump hadn't made "no more foreign wars" one of his MAGA themes over the last several years.
    There’s ‘pulling out’ and then there’s ‘pulling out in a way which is catastrophically inept and mortally embarrassing and produces future enormous problems’. Cf coitus interruptus and our newly Catholic PM
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,774
    edited August 2021


    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.

    Essentially no-one of any influence in America wants to invest in Afghanistan. Biden won't be blamed for getting America out of a country of no importance to it. But he might be blamed for America being humiliated by Afghanistan, which is different. Particularly if it turns out to be a pattern of muck-ups

    The Saigon damage would have fallen on Nixon, not Ford, but by that time Nixon was permanently damaged for other reasons.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021
    Foss said:

    Politico thinks he was bored of it as far back as 2009.
    I am not sure he can even remember 2009, as he doesn't even seem to remember where his own front door is.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Selebian said:


    You could be right. If it's seen as a humiliation then it could feed into a second MAGA narrative etc.

    Much depends on the Taliban, probably. If they keep things fairly low profile then it could well be forgotten by 2024. If they commit high profile atrocities and/or encourage/allow overseas terror using Afghanistan as a base then it could be a hot issue.

    This article in The Times is the best I've seen on the Taliban as it is today:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-taliban-are-back-richer-more-powerful-and-even-more-dangerous-rmd0p8shw (£££)

    In a nutshell, rather like ISIS was in Iraq, but politically smarter: internet-savvy, utter ruthless, well-funded, happy to profit from opium and ransom-kidnappings, and more dangerous than the 2001 version. Of course the situation is further complicated by Chinese ambitions in the region. It's hard to see how this can be anything other than bad news for the West, especially now that the Taliban has achieved total victory so has no need to compromise on anything. The high-profile atrocities are inevitable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    Berlin has a raccoon problem which I only discovered after seeing one. I was a bit pished at the time so it was definitely one of those cartoonish rubbing your eyes moments.
    Taking a love of Guardians of the Galaxy a little TOO far.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910

    Not one I'll be joining you on. Have you been to the Acropolis museum ?
    Tomorrow. The Acropolis museum, the pnyx, plato’s academy and the old red light district.

    Athens is brilliant right now. Enough tourists to give it a buzz, but about 10% of the normal hordes. Probably what it was like in the 60s or 70s
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Maybe the "cultural tendency to view women as victims" exists because, er, women nearly always are the victims, particularly of violent and sexual abuse?
    Maybe. But there are certainly people who would dispute your assumption that women are 'nearly always' the victims.

    https://www.helpguide.org/articles/abuse/help-for-men-who-are-being-abused.htm
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Maybe the "cultural tendency to view women as victims" exists because, er, women nearly always are the victims, particularly of violent and sexual abuse?
    You're reducing a large category of behaviour (abuse) to two smaller (but very important) types of abuse. And even for those categories, it may not be 'nearly always'. Abuse, and even rape, is vastly more complex than that.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/11/the-understudied-female-sexual-predator/503492/

    When it comes to domestic abuse, women in the UK are about twice as likely as men to be victims. But that still means 4-6% of 16-59 year old males have suffered domestic abuse in the last year. They should not be forgotten in the conversation.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/domesticabuseinenglandandwalesoverview/november2020

    I do wonder if there are a number of relationships where both parties/spouses are abusive, both verbally and physically.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Tomorrow. The Acropolis museum, the pnyx, plato’s academy and the old red light district.

    Athens is brilliant right now. Enough tourists to give it a buzz, but about 10% of the normal hordes. Probably what it was like in the 60s or 70s
    Yup. Plaka is great for a meal out on the neoclassical cobbled streets, particularly a restaurant called 'o psaras' with a view of the parthenon, and Psiri for a view of the super-trendy, down-at-heel and up-and-coming areas.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    @POTUS - “ I will be addressing the nation on Afghanistan at 3:45 PM ET today.”
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Ashes going to be 5-0 Aussie whitewashing job aren't they.

    If they take place at all...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105
    Good header. The political decisions made by the US and UK will reverberate for decades.

    For anyone interested in getting an inside view of what this means the Iranian directed film 'Kandahar' is really worth watching. I saw it ages ago but the cloying claustrophobia of being a female under that regime is something I still remember.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Ashes going to be 5-0 Aussie whitewashing job aren't they.

    Root averages only 38 in Australia with no centuries in 9 Tests. Anderson's record there also isn't great. Aside from them the team isn't that good.

    Unless someone comes from nowhere to put in an exceptional performance (Vaughan 2002/3 style) it looks likely to be the weakest England performance in Australia in my memory (90s onwards).
  • If they take place at all...
    Just like Australia wouldn't come here for the Rugby League, in the interests of safety (and obviously nothing to do with likelihood of getting absolutely pounded into the ground) ECB should say they can't risk it.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    If China gets dragged into conflict with the Taliban regime two birds might be wounded by one stone.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2021

    This article in The Times is the best I've seen on the Taliban as it is today:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-taliban-are-back-richer-more-powerful-and-even-more-dangerous-rmd0p8shw (£££)

    In a nutshell, rather like ISIS was in Iraq, but politically smarter: internet-savvy, utter ruthless, well-funded, happy to profit from opium and ransom-kidnappings, and more dangerous than the 2001 version. Of course the situation is further complicated by Chinese ambitions in the region. It's hard to see how this can be anything other than bad news for the West, especially now that the Taliban has achieved total victory so has no need to compromise on anything. The high-profile atrocities are inevitable.
    Blimey, happy days
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021
    Are the Taliban happy to do business with the Chinese because Uighurs are the "wrong type" of Muslims and they don't care or could the disgraceful treatment of the Uighurs cause issues in this new lovely relationship?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    My main take from the whole thing is that a few of the Boris dislikers are using "we" to criticise Biden/the West . My money would be on them using "Biden" if "we" had pulled off a major coup
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    You're reducing a large category of behaviour (abuse) to two smaller (but very important) types of abuse. And even for those categories, it may not be 'nearly always'. Abuse, and even rape, is vastly more complex than that.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/11/the-understudied-female-sexual-predator/503492/

    When it comes to domestic abuse, women in the UK are about twice as likely as men to be victims. But that still means 4-6% of 16-59 year old males have suffered domestic abuse in the last year. They should not be forgotten in the conversation.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/domesticabuseinenglandandwalesoverview/november2020

    I do wonder if there are a number of relationships where both parties/spouses are abusive, both verbally and physically.
    I suspect men are more likely to be physically abusive and women more likely to be verbally abusive. Both can be very harmful. I would suggest however that spotting someone who is subjected to a great deal of verbal abuse is much harder to spot than one subjected to physical. Given the tendency that we have to teach men to be stoic then they are also far less likely to say anything to anyone. In my view domestic abuse on men is massively under-reported. I think it is likely more men are subject to verbal domestic abuse than women subject to physical domestic abuse.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,774
    edited August 2021
    This is I think a fair analysis on China's policy on Afghanistan:
    • China intends to stay well clear of the country.
    • There is some point scoring against America, but China would much rather America was in Afghanistan - takes the pressure off China
    • China is not on the Taliban's side in a dispute with America
    • Not stated, but also usefully tied America down. Now America has resource to direct at China.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231544.shtml
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Just like Australia wouldn't come here for the Rugby League, in the interests of safety (and obviously nothing to do with likelihood of getting absolutely pounded into the ground) ECB should say they can't risk it.
    I get the impression the Rugby League decision was taken because the domestic season back at home shortly afterwards was worth more money.

    The Ashes must be worth a huge amount of money. I'd be very surprised if a way isn't found to make it happen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited August 2021
    eek said:

    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    If China gets dragged into conflict with the Taliban regime two birds might be wounded by one stone.

    Yes, but China has absolutely no interest or reason to get involved. Even if the Taliban decided to prioritize helping the Uighurs, China has already shown that it is ruthless enough to suppress them to a degree that would be unacceptable for any Western country to attempt against ISIS or AQ, let alone with any minority at home. It's hard to see what the Taliban could do to provoke the Chinese in the first place.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Just like Australia wouldn't come here for the Rugby League, in the interests of safety (and obviously nothing to do with likelihood of getting absolutely pounded into the ground) ECB should say they can't risk it.
    I think the issue is more the familes/isolation requirements. I think the players (or some players) would put up with the isolation, but will not inflict that on the families, so without an exemption, they won't tour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    I don't think this will enhance Biden's standing, so the likelihood of keeping Trump out is not improved. Biden's rating is now down to 50%, and I'd expect it to go down a few points now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674

    If they take place at all...
    I can't see it happening, the ECB want assurances of quarantine exemptions for players, staff and family members of players and staff who want to travel with the team as long as they are fully vaccinated. I don't see the Australian government allowing it, I mean they made their own Olympic team quarantine for 21 or 28 days on returning from Japan. They've completely lost the ability to function as a nation that interacts with other countries in a reasoned and sensible manner. Both Australia and NZ have lost the plot in recent months.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think this will enhance Biden's standing, so the likelihood of keeping Trump out is not improved. Biden's rating is now down to 50%, and I'd expect it to go down a few points now.
    Neither option provided a means of enhancing Biden's standing which is why it was done as quickly as possible so that it's mainly forgotten by the time the 2022 elections come around.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    edited August 2021
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think this will enhance Biden's standing, so the likelihood of keeping Trump out is not improved. Biden's rating is now down to 50%, and I'd expect it to go down a few points now.
    Unless, and I grant that this unlikely, Biden can hand some at least of the blame onto Trump.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    rpjs said:

    Yes, but China has absolutely no interest or reason to get involved. Even if the Taliban decided to prioritize helping the Uighurs, China has already shown that it is ruthless enough to suppress them to a degree that would be unacceptable for any Western country to attempt against ISIS or AQ, let alone with any minority at home. It's hard to see what the Taliban could do to provoke the Chinese in the first place.
    Yes, China won't keep to any arbitrary rules of war based on human rights. They will simply bomb Afghanistan into the stone age, civilians (will) be damned. The Taliban are back because they know the west is too weak to live with the idea of the level of destruction required to really beat them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    AlistairM said:

    I suspect men are more likely to be physically abusive and women more likely to be verbally abusive. Both can be very harmful. I would suggest however that spotting someone who is subjected to a great deal of verbal abuse is much harder to spot than one subjected to physical. Given the tendency that we have to teach men to be stoic then they are also far less likely to say anything to anyone. In my view domestic abuse on men is massively under-reported. I think it is likely more men are subject to verbal domestic abuse than women subject to physical domestic abuse.
    Perhaps. A good friend of mine's wife is generally lovely, but every so often she verbally explodes at him: including in public. Occasionally she says things that are pretty unforgivable to, and about, him. He's the calmest person I know, and it just washes over him - which I think annoys her more than if he screamed back at her.

    And getting more personal. I am over six feet tall. A few decades ago, whilst in my late teens, I had a girlfriend who was much shorter than me.

    She hit me twice. Once with an iron; it was plugged in, and the cord stopped it hitting my face, but it smashed under may arm, which I had raised to protect my face. On another occasion she hit me with a Tom Clancy hardback. Aimed for the privates, but missed. The muscles around where the iron hit still gives me discomfort every few years or so.

    People can believe this or not, but I had done nothing to provoke the 'attacks', aside from not wanting to move in with her (a wise decision, methinks). I never raised a finger against her, and not against anyone else, either. The damnable thing is that I blamed myself for a few years.

    So yes, some women can be physically violent. Even short and lovely ones.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,774
    edited August 2021
    eek said:

    Neither option provided a means of enhancing Biden's standing which is why it was done as quickly as possible so that it's mainly forgotten by the time the 2022 elections come around.
    This. Do it just after the previous election and well before the next one. On this, Biden and Trump were aligned. Biden has been very hard headed, cynical even. But he was caught out by the speed of the previous regime's collapse. If he had known that earlier he would be even more determined to get it out the way.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    Wow now we have it in writing. Now we have it in writing.

    The left will sacrifice anything, anything, to prevent some loudmouth upstart President challenging their precious shibboleths. Race theory. Climate change. Lockdowns. Mass immigration. Gender fluidity.

    Those sacrifices include consigning hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of Afghan women literally into a life of medieval slavery. Thousands more Afghans of both sexes will be tortured and executed.

    All these people are completely expendable if it means we on the left don't have to heed Donald Trump any more.

    Quite breathtaking. Really.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    One of the reasons I got a little irritated by you, in that argument, is because YOU deliberately or stupidly misread my original opinion - such is your tedious determination to sniff out unwoke attitudes which you can then laboriously denounce, and thereby feel smug

    Don’t believe me? Go back and find it
    It's in memory.

    A poster opined that the Taliban wouldn't attack fleeing Americans because it'd risk retribution and they only needed to wait a few days for untrammeled power.

    You replied that you were less sure of this because that sort of "Western logical thinking" may not apply with them.

    I queried this. I said, "So you think logic is a Western owned trait?" Just that. A gentle probe of an arresting sentence is all.

    Back for my trouble came 7 words only: "Oh fuck off you tedious woke twit."

    That's where we left it - and there it was left.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    rpjs said:

    Yes, but China has absolutely no interest or reason to get involved. Even if the Taliban decided to prioritize helping the Uighurs, China has already shown that it is ruthless enough to suppress them to a degree that would be unacceptable for any Western country to attempt against ISIS or AQ, let alone with any minority at home. It's hard to see what the Taliban could do to provoke the Chinese in the first place.
    Not so sure about that. Apart from the Uighurs there is a border and Islamists have recently attacked Chinese projects in the region. This is an interesting article from a non-Western view point. https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/it-never-was-just-about-afghanistan-the-us-china-and-india-have-a-lot-to-lose-11628904195207.html
  • Why would the UN prevent Pakistan from speaking in the debate
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Administration officials said the president will speak about Afghanistan at 3:45 p.m. on Monday after returning to the White House after 1 p.m.

    NYTimes blog
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    " Pakistan must now fear that the next regime in Kabul will give sanctuary and support for the Pakistani Taliban. There may be poetic justice in this, but the prospect of fundamentalist forces destabilizing a regime with an estimated 160 nuclear warheads is an unparalleled global nightmare."

    NYTimes
  • " Pakistan must now fear that the next regime in Kabul will give sanctuary and support for the Pakistani Taliban. There may be poetic justice in this, but the prospect of fundamentalist forces destabilizing a regime with an estimated 160 nuclear warheads is an unparalleled global nightmare."

    NYTimes

    I'm not sure about their analysis on this. The Afghan Taliban has strong links.to the Pakistani ISI, whereas the Pakistani Taliban doesn't.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kinabalu said:

    It's in memory.

    A poster opined that the Taliban wouldn't attack fleeing Americans because it'd risk retribution and they only needed to wait a few days for untrammeled power.

    You replied that you were less sure of this because that sort of "Western logical thinking" may not apply with them.

    I queried this. I said, "So you think logic is a Western owned trait?" Just that. A gentle probe of an arresting sentence is all.

    Back for my trouble came 7 words only: "Oh fuck off you tedious woke twit."

    That's where we left it - and there it was left.
    By your own admission the important thing is that Donald Trump should not get into power again to challenge your wokery.

    If the lives of millions of Afghans are utterly destroyed, well that's a price that is worth paying to preserve your completely fake moral rectitude.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Why would the UN prevent Pakistan from speaking in the debate

    Because if you had to choose one country that was most to blame for Afghanistan's travails it wouldn't be the US, or Russia, or Saudi Arabia, or Iran (or even Britain) - it would be Pakistan.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    I'm not sure about their analysis on this. The Afghan Taliban has strong links.to the Pakistani ISI, whereas the Pakistani Taliban doesn't.
    The more errrr.. interesting types in the ISI sponsored the Taliban (and associated fundis) as weapons in their ongoing conflict with India.

    IIRC It was PJ O'Rourke who commented that while they had these characters in their pockets, it was a bit like having a Gila monster in your pocket.....

    The various extreme groups they sponsored turned out to have some interesting ideas for Pakistan as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1427279944674066436

    It was known since 2016 that nearly 200k of the Afghan army’s purported 350k troops were non/existent “ghost soldiers” with the money for them vanishing into corruption.
  • Because if you had to choose one country that was most to blame for Afghanistan's travails it wouldn't be the US, or Russia, or Saudi Arabia, or Iran (or even Britain) - it would be Pakistan.
    Thank you
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    BREAKING: President Biden orders another 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne to Kabul. 7,000 U.S. troops will be on the ground in Afghanistan soon.
    https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1427294956260151307
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Looking at the latest numbers covid-wise, there was an unusually big spike of numbers in hospital in England this morning.

    We've been wobbling around the 5,000 (+/- a couple of hundred) for about three weeks.
    We've leapt from 4,973 to 5,429 in two days, with more than three hundred of the increase coming this morning.
    Number in mechanical ventilation beds hasn't previously been over 800 in England since mid-March and didn't go over even following the cases peak (the cases peak is now a month ago, so hospitalisations and ICU admissions should have had ample time to filter through and drop back down).

    Hopefully it's just a random fluctuation (Delta burning through a group of unvaxxed or highly vulnerable), but the hospital numbers seem to have gone up noticeably in every single region of England.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MaxPB said:

    I can't see it happening, the ECB want assurances of quarantine exemptions for players, staff and family members of players and staff who want to travel with the team as long as they are fully vaccinated. I don't see the Australian government allowing it, I mean they made their own Olympic team quarantine for 21 or 28 days on returning from Japan. They've completely lost the ability to function as a nation that interacts with other countries in a reasoned and sensible manner. Both Australia and NZ have lost the plot in recent months.
    Yep. Formula 1 binned off Australia too, after being asked to quarantine 1,500 people for a fortnight before their race - despite them continuing to travel around the world with very few issues during the pandemic, because they put a lot of time, effort and money into keeping everyone in bubbles.

    The genie is out of the bottle anyway now, they have 500 cases today. They need to get everyone vaccinated quickly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    edited August 2021

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

    What would be different in Afghanistan just now if Trump, rather than Biden, was in the White House?

    Genuine question - I understand that what has happened regarding US actions to be broadly in line with what Trump was planning to do had he won. If not, I'm happy to learn. So it seems to me we get a shit situation in Afghanistan either way, but one scenario also has Trump in the White House.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Anyone doubting the effect of vaccines on why we are not in a worse position to August 2020 needs to explain this:

    Looking at the latest numbers covid-wise, there was an unusually big spike of numbers in hospital in England this morning.

    We've been wobbling around the 5,000 (+/- a couple of hundred) for about three weeks.
    We've leapt from 4,973 to 5,429 in two days, with more than three hundred of the increase coming this morning.
    Number in mechanical ventilation beds hasn't previously been over 800 in England since mid-March and didn't go over even following the cases peak (the cases peak is now a month ago, so hospitalisations and ICU admissions should have had ample time to filter through and drop back down).

    Hopefully it's just a random fluctuation (Delta burning through a group of unvaxxed or highly vulnerable), but the hospital numbers seem to have gone up noticeably in every single region of England.

    Sadly I think this relates to those whose stay will be long and possibly without a good outcome. Its noticeable how the numbers in hospitable did not drop that much when the cases did (allowing for lags). If what @Foxy says for his ICU is true, its mostly unvaccinated across the land that are in ICU (I think he implied that some had good reasons, presumably medical related).

    To me this is how this plays out - the unvaccinated are going to get this, and lots of them will have big issues.
    The vaccinated will probably get this, and may have a few nasty days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Because if you had to choose one country that was most to blame for Afghanistan's travails it wouldn't be the US, or Russia, or Saudi Arabia, or Iran (or even Britain) - it would be Pakistan.
    Yep. A penny for Imran Khan’s thoughts this week. He needs to step up. A lot.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I'm sorry - but this is just disgusting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427250837664014336

    REAKING: A German Defense Ministry spokesperson on its responsibility to get local Afghan support staff and translators out of the country: "It's not like we forced them to cooperate with us."

    America also considering restricting flights out to US citizens only [ no locals
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sandpit said:

    Yep. A penny for Imran Khan’s thoughts this week. He needs to step up. A lot.
    He might not be entirely upset with situation.....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -9%, an increase of 2% from last week. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving (down 2%) of his overall job performance, against 35% approving (no change).

    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -14%, a 1% decrease from last week. 38% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 24% approve (no change). Meanwhile, 31% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 1%)."
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,375
    Trump seems to retain his crown as the big danger. Why? He's old, in line for a coronary, and it's a toss-up who dies first. Him or Biden. I may be cruel but I'm being realistic. Joe is edging towards dementia and Trump can't get much worse anyway.

    Ms Harris ticks boxes but that's about all. Surely someone, more versed in US politics than me, has ideas about who's up and coming now that Cuomo is persona non grata?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    Floater said:

    I'm sorry - but this is just disgusting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427250837664014336

    REAKING: A German Defense Ministry spokesperson on its responsibility to get local Afghan support staff and translators out of the country: "It's not like we forced them to cooperate with us."

    America also considering restricting flights out to US citizens only [ no locals

    Boris' comment about nations not engaging with the Taliban wasn't aimed at China and Russia, it was always aimed at Germany.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
This discussion has been closed.