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Debt of Honour – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    UK local R

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Floater said:

    I'm sorry - but this is just disgusting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427250837664014336

    REAKING: A German Defense Ministry spokesperson on its responsibility to get local Afghan support staff and translators out of the country: "It's not like we forced them to cooperate with us."

    America also considering restricting flights out to US citizens only [ no locals

    Link re second point

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1427296769789071371

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    UK deaths

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Ha ha, wicket off a no ball.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    Age related data

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  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,164
    edited August 2021

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

    I agree with Selebian ; Trump was the one who first did a deal with them, releasing 5000 of their top commanders and then effectively signing away the country by immediately offering a departure date. In fact he wanted to do it even more quickly than Biden, so I can't really see how he's the champion of Afghan womanhood here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    LDs up 1% to 10% after opposing the Afghan withdrawal. Tories unchanged, Labour down 1%
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,988
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely yes. And more wildcats. And wolves. And aurochs. Why not.

    Bears maybe only in Wales
    Wildcats a bit difficult to organise without castrating all the local domestic mogs, which does not go down well with some folk. And we have plenty of Sevco Bears around around Glasgow, so quite right to treat Wales.

    Have a nice time in the agora.
    Yes, interbreeding is a problem. But surely we can find a wildcat species sufficiently different from domestic cats that they can’t hybridise?

    Failing that, SNOW LEOPARDS

    Why not? Let’s be imaginative. Dwarf rhino on Dartmoor
    Nice thought! But nonnative species are a big no-no. You're stuck with Felis sylvestris sylvestris (Scottish Wildcat) or nothing. Apart of course for lynx. Lynx will do very nicely indeed for a wild cat.

    Happily reports last week show beaver are now v. prevalent. Numbers now being locally controlled.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/10/wild-beaver-numbers-surge-to-1000-across-scotlands-southern-highlands
    The definition of ‘native’ is confounding tho, as you surely know. Species here for a thousand years? Are rabbits (introduced by the Romans) non-native? Species here when Britain became an island? Species here at the end of the ice age? When? What is native?

    Relatedly, I note that Athens is now infested with parakeets, just like London. Jimi Hendrix has a lot to answer for

    Berlin has a raccoon problem which I only discovered after seeing one. I was a bit pished at the time so it was definitely one of those cartoonish rubbing your eyes moments.
    Didn't know that. A quick check shows that fried raccoon is a thing:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/racoon-caused-explosion-at-berlin-siemensstadt-power-station-lkq0n3jwk
    I believe like a lot of countries Germany had a thriving fur industry involving different breeds in the interwar period, the chaos of the war released a lot of them into the wild. The 3rd Shock Army liberating raccoons as well as loyal Communists and proletarians is a surreal thought.

    Harris had a similar if much smaller problem with minks, released by incompetence rather than total war, I think they've made a big effort to eradicate them. Saw one in the Leverburgh mill pool once, an intensely black shape slipping in and out of the water.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    I would not be so sure, if Afghanistan becomes a haven for militant jihadis again and they only need to get through once.

    Ironically that would make Americans even more pro gun too, to protect themselves from terrorists
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    I always think Turkey an interesting case, as a bellwether of democracy and religion. It has some of the characteristics of what might be described as a fundamentally religious culture, but also had a dictator and a cult of personality for a hundred years who tried to eradicate or restrict this. On the east side, a society not too far dissimilar from Afghanistan's, and on the west and north-west coasts, a large metropolitan secular population, a proportion of whom are also in fact curiously descended from the very first progenitors of democracy, as muslim-converted greeks from Ionia and the surrounding areas. It's moved broadly with the political-religious trends of the 80's and 90's, of the rest of the Muslim world, but where it goes next will be significant.

    Coincidentally I am writing this at a cafe directly underneath the Parthenon. Sipping a decent but not brilliant Cretan white

    If I look up from my iPad I can see the chiselled golden pillars of the famous temple, the birthplace of western democracy

    Poignant
    Athens the birthplace not only of western democracy but of the Socratic method.
    @kinbalu was having a bit of a dig yesterday about whether 'logical thinking' was a purely western characteristic. I would argue that 'logical thinking' stems from the philosophy of ancient Athens, and particular Socrates and his successors, in which no question was off limits; in which every statement could be met with 'why?'.
    This is not a way of looking at the world held everywhere, even in the west, and certainly hasn't always been held in the west. But I would argue that those cultures which are free to ask why (like the west, at its best) are better than those which are not (like Wahabbi Islam).
    Kinabalu was correcting your fundamental misreading of Kinabalu's point in the exchange he was having with fruity Leon.
    Well that was fair enough.

    I think I just thought it an interesting, though probably rather tangential, point that 'rationalism' is kind of a western (though not exclusively) philosophy rather than necessarily a universal one.
    Could be the case, I don't know enough to opine really. I was more thinking of it at the individual level. Is your typical Westerner a more logical thinker than the global average in this regard? And that sounds wrong to me. Any case the cross purposes arose because you were trying to PB at the same time as cooking a roast dinner. So I just hope your Yorkshires weren't ruined. 🙂
    One of the reasons I got a little irritated by you, in that argument, is because YOU deliberately or stupidly misread my original opinion - such is your tedious determination to sniff out unwoke attitudes which you can then laboriously denounce, and thereby feel smug

    Don’t believe me? Go back and find it
    It's in memory.

    A poster opined that the Taliban wouldn't attack fleeing Americans because it'd risk retribution and they only needed to wait a few days for untrammeled power.

    You replied that you were less sure of this because that sort of "Western logical thinking" may not apply with them.

    I queried this. I said, "So you think logic is a Western owned trait?" Just that. A gentle probe of an arresting sentence is all.

    Back for my trouble came 7 words only: "Oh fuck off you tedious woke twit."

    That's where we left it - and there it was left.
    By your own admission the important thing is that Donald Trump should not get into power again to challenge your wokery.

    If the lives of millions of Afghans are utterly destroyed, well that's a price that is worth paying to preserve your completely fake moral rectitude.
    "Evil power bottom sex dwarf, Owen Jones, yet again drunk on false rectitude and allowing his cup of misogyny to runneth over".

    You've been cribbing, I think.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    Wow now we have it in writing. Now we have it in writing.

    The left will sacrifice anything, anything, to prevent some loudmouth upstart President challenging their precious shibboleths. Race theory. Climate change. Lockdowns. Mass immigration. Gender fluidity.

    Those sacrifices include consigning hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of Afghan women literally into a life of medieval slavery. Thousands more Afghans of both sexes will be tortured and executed.

    All these people are completely expendable if it means we on the left don't have to heed Donald Trump any more.

    Quite breathtaking. Really.
    Donald Trump returning threatens the very continuation of western democracy itself, as we saw in January, so I don't find it hard to agree with Kinabalu personally.
    Nonsense on stilts. But the whole argument seems thoroughly contrived anyway. I'm aware of no evidence that the US electorate was that fussed about the attrition rate in Afghanistan for it to make a difference to Biden's re election chances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Selebian said:

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

    What would be different in Afghanistan just now if Trump, rather than Biden, was in the White House?

    Genuine question - I understand that what has happened regarding US actions to be broadly in line with what Trump was planning to do had he won. If not, I'm happy to learn. So it seems to me we get a shit situation in Afghanistan either way, but one scenario also has Trump in the White House.
    Nothing really, both Trump and Biden are isolationists, certainly compared to the likes of Bush, McCain and Hillary Clinton.

    Though I doubt even Trump would have allowed Kabul to have been handed over as swiftly and ineptly back to the Taliban as Biden has
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    tlg86 said:

    Ha ha, wicket off a no ball.

    It's not ha ha, it's thank the Lord for the TV!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    Dominic Raab finally breaks cover to give a clip on Afghanistan having been forced to cut his sunny Cyprus holiday short. He says the UK will "hold" the Taliban to their promise to uphold human rights. Wonder how that will go
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1427302415410372616
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    The funny thing is his supporters in America will believe he never said it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,419
    isam said:
    I bet he broke into the pack of Kleenex when he saw that tweet.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,164
    edited August 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    Wow now we have it in writing. Now we have it in writing.

    The left will sacrifice anything, anything, to prevent some loudmouth upstart President challenging their precious shibboleths. Race theory. Climate change. Lockdowns. Mass immigration. Gender fluidity.

    Those sacrifices include consigning hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of Afghan women literally into a life of medieval slavery. Thousands more Afghans of both sexes will be tortured and executed.

    All these people are completely expendable if it means we on the left don't have to heed Donald Trump any more.

    Quite breathtaking. Really.
    Donald Trump returning threatens the very continuation of western democracy itself, as we saw in January, so I don't find it hard to agree with Kinabalu personally.
    Nonsense on stilts. But the whole argument seems thoroughly contrived anyway. I'm aware of no evidence that the US electorate was that fussed about the attrition rate in Afghanistan for it to make a difference to Biden's re election chances.
    I can't see how Donald Trump in January didn't threaten the continuation of western democracy. He tried to overturn an election with digital conspiracism, and then would have acquiesced with a coup whose basis he himself encouraged.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    More people die in car crashes than plane crashes. Guess which makes the news?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Redfield & Wilton has Tory lead up to 4% compared with 3% a week ago
    Con 40% Lab 36% LD 10%.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Taz said:

    isam said:
    I bet he broke into the pack of Kleenex when he saw that tweet.
    This is the one, Taz. This is the moment the nation will decide to get rid of Boris and reverse Brexit. He's been waiting five years for this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

    He sure is. And if he were to get America back to play with in his cot, people would soon see why.

    But in any case you're blaming this Afghan fiasco on Lockdown, aren't you? So I won't bang on at you too much. I know I have to make allowances.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,746
    isam said:
    I'm not sure that's as bad as it appears. It seems highly plausible to me, probable even that:
    - Johnson's watch is routinely randomly wrong
    - Carrie/aides set his watch 15 minutes early on purpose in the hope that he might be on time for something
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    Wow now we have it in writing. Now we have it in writing.

    The left will sacrifice anything, anything, to prevent some loudmouth upstart President challenging their precious shibboleths. Race theory. Climate change. Lockdowns. Mass immigration. Gender fluidity.

    Those sacrifices include consigning hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of Afghan women literally into a life of medieval slavery. Thousands more Afghans of both sexes will be tortured and executed.

    All these people are completely expendable if it means we on the left don't have to heed Donald Trump any more.

    Quite breathtaking. Really.
    Donald Trump returning threatens the very continuation of western democracy itself, as we saw in January, so I don't find it hard to agree with Kinabalu personally.
    Nonsense on stilts. But the whole argument seems thoroughly contrived anyway. I'm aware of no evidence that the US electorate was that fussed about the attrition rate in Afghanistan for it to make a difference to Biden's re election chances.
    I can't see how Donald Trump in January didn't threaten the continuation of western democracy. He tried to overturn an election with digital conspiracism, and then would have acquiesced with a coup whose basis he himself encouraged.
    It was not just in January, the coup plot started months before and continues as we speak, positioning traitors in key electoral roles ready for 2024.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    Game over at Lord’s now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    More people die in car crashes than plane crashes. Guess which makes the news?
    Big dramatic events make news, I realize that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Indeed. That 9th wicket stand for India won it for India.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Selebian said:

    isam said:
    I'm not sure that's as bad as it appears. It seems highly plausible to me, probable even that:
    - Johnson's watch is routinely randomly wrong
    - Carrie/aides set his watch 15 minutes early on purpose in the hope that he might be on time for something
    Quite. My wife has her alarm 15 mins early for this reason. Drives me mad as I know it is 15 mins early and adjust in my head. Two or three mins might work for me, not fifteen...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,873
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    I'm confused. You mean he followed the agreement Mr Trump signed?
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    You seem to be a lone voice and your hero Trump does not agree with you
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Can't say Curran's covered himself with glory as a batsman. If he's in next time, he's best at No 11.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    #spiritofcardiff
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    You seem to be a lone voice and your hero Trump does not agree with you
    Senator John McCain did and he was absolutely right

    https://www.npr.org/2015/10/07/446499466/sen-mccain-expects-a-permanent-u-s-presence-in-afghanistan

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    I'm confused. You mean he followed the agreement Mr Trump signed?
    To be fair Mr Trump would never have followed an agreement he signed. That has been proven many times over.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    Trump started the pull-out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Indeed. That 9th wicket stand for India won it for India.
    Yep, 89 for the 9th wicket. We should have finished them off in an hour this morning, match would look very different now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Selebian said:

    isam said:
    I'm not sure that's as bad as it appears. It seems highly plausible to me, probable even that:
    - Johnson's watch is routinely randomly wrong
    - Carrie/aides set his watch 15 minutes early on purpose in the hope that he might be on time for something
    Perhaps.. they could run with that excuse, but there is bound to be a pic of him that disproves it if they did, and are lying

    Reminds me of a Columbo!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    More people die in car crashes than plane crashes. Guess which makes the news?
    Big dramatic events make news, I realize that.
    Which is why a large-scale terrorist attack will lead the news for weeks, as it did in 2001.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    Trump started the pull-out.
    And Trump was wrong on that too. Bush and McCain were who I supported on this not Biden and Trump
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448

    Selebian said:

    isam said:
    I'm not sure that's as bad as it appears. It seems highly plausible to me, probable even that:
    - Johnson's watch is routinely randomly wrong
    - Carrie/aides set his watch 15 minutes early on purpose in the hope that he might be on time for something
    Quite. My wife has her alarm 15 mins early for this reason. Drives me mad as I know it is 15 mins early and adjust in my head. Two or three mins might work for me, not fifteen...
    My father-in-law kept his 'main' clock 10 minutes fast for a similar reason.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Can't say Curran's covered himself with glory as a batsman. If he's in next time, he's best at No 11.
    Bit unfair. He was superb in 2018 series against India, and had two very good first balls here. I worry more about his lack of pace as a bowler. He needs a few more mph to cut it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Indeed. That 9th wicket stand for India won it for India.
    Yep, 89 for the 9th wicket. We should have finished them off in an hour this morning, match would look very different now.
    Yep. We’d have been bowled out chasing 170...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Can't say Curran's covered himself with glory as a batsman. If he's in next time, he's best at No 11.
    Bit unfair. He was superb in 2018 series against India, and had two very good first balls here. I worry more about his lack of pace as a bowler. He needs a few more mph to cut it.
    Yeah, maybe. Prepared to stand corrected.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    More people die in car crashes than plane crashes. Guess which makes the news?
    The one involving a princess.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Video resurfaces showing Trump 1 month ago taking full credit for the Afghanistan pullout. https://twitter.com/parkerbutler10/status/1427295338382118918

    @HYUFD will be along in a minute to tell us that actually President Trump is blameless and isn't responsible actually nor has he ever made any such claim.
    Read my post below, as I have said Romney would be better than Biden and Trump, they are both wrong on the withdrawal, though I doubt even Trump would have so weakly surrendered to the Taliban as Biden has, certainly at least not without some shock and awe bombing etc
    How has Biden surrendered to the Taliban...

    US troops left Afghanistan a month or so ago - this is merely the obvious result of that departure.
    He surrendered by the very act of withdrawal, as I have long said US and UK forces should have stayed there indefinitely to keep the Taliban and Al Qaeda out
    You seem to be a lone voice and your hero Trump does not agree with you
    Senator John McCain did and he was absolutely right

    https://www.npr.org/2015/10/07/446499466/sen-mccain-expects-a-permanent-u-s-presence-in-afghanistan

    Well Trump and Biden who made the decision do not agree with either of you and I would suggest a large section of the electorate both here and in the US also disagree
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Can't say Curran's covered himself with glory as a batsman. If he's in next time, he's best at No 11.
    Bit unfair. He was superb in 2018 series against India, and had two very good first balls here. I worry more about his lack of pace as a bowler. He needs a few more mph to cut it.
    Yeah, maybe. Prepared to stand corrected.
    To back that up his batting average is 26.7, which is decent for a number 8.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Indeed. That 9th wicket stand for India won it for India.
    Yep, 89 for the 9th wicket. We should have finished them off in an hour this morning, match would look very different now.
    Yep. We’d have been bowled out chasing 170...
    Meaning we'd have gotten much closer!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030
    Am I the only one who, on seeing the Taliban lads inside the presidential palace in Kabul, was reminded of the Trumpites inside the Capitol?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    isam said:

    I was going to stick up for Raab, but the fact the holiday was "sunny" has made me so angry I cant bring myself to do so

    Sunday
    It was an event foretold. We’ve known for a long time the way things were going
    -Boris Johnson'

    Monday
    'Everyone has been surprised by the scale and the pace at which the Taliban have taken over in Afghanistan'
    -Dominic Raab


    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1427306609118793733
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    I would not be so sure, if Afghanistan becomes a haven for militant jihadis again and they only need to get through once.

    Ironically that would make Americans even more pro gun too, to protect themselves from terrorists
    I'm not sure. I just assess it as unlikely before the next presidential election. I mean, put it this way, if the only way Biden emerges without long-term electoral damage from these events is if there is no return by summer 2024 to serious, Afghan hatched, Islamist terror on US soil, then he's looking in ok shape.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    edited August 2021
    Where's the rain that was expected at Nottingham? Incidentally, someone's just posted on the BBC site that the two teams don't like each other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192
    Sandpit said:

    Why would the UN prevent Pakistan from speaking in the debate

    Because if you had to choose one country that was most to blame for Afghanistan's travails it wouldn't be the US, or Russia, or Saudi Arabia, or Iran (or even Britain) - it would be Pakistan.
    Yep. A penny for Imran Khan’s thoughts this week. He needs to step up. A lot.
    I posted them earlier.

    He welcomes the Taliban victory - "Breaking shackles of slavery"...
    https://www.india.com/news/world/taliban-takeover-breaking-shackles-of-slavery-in-afghanistan-says-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-4892465/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    I was going to stick up for Raab, but the fact the holiday was "sunny" has made me so angry I cant bring myself to do so

    Sunday
    It was an event foretold. We’ve known for a long time the way things were going
    -Boris Johnson'

    Monday
    'Everyone has been surprised by the scale and the pace at which the Taliban have taken over in Afghanistan'
    -Dominic Raab


    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1427306609118793733
    I think both those statements are true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192
    Floater said:

    I'm sorry - but this is just disgusting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427250837664014336

    REAKING: A German Defense Ministry spokesperson on its responsibility to get local Afghan support staff and translators out of the country: "It's not like we forced them to cooperate with us."

    America also considering restricting flights out to US citizens only [ no locals

    Whatever the practicalities, that is vile.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    I was going to stick up for Raab, but the fact the holiday was "sunny" has made me so angry I cant bring myself to do so

    Sunday
    It was an event foretold. We’ve known for a long time the way things were going
    -Boris Johnson'

    Monday
    'Everyone has been surprised by the scale and the pace at which the Taliban have taken over in Afghanistan'
    -Dominic Raab


    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1427306609118793733
    Come on Scott, that’s weak. Both statements can be true.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    I was going to stick up for Raab, but the fact the holiday was "sunny" has made me so angry I cant bring myself to do so

    Sunday
    It was an event foretold. We’ve known for a long time the way things were going
    -Boris Johnson'

    Monday
    'Everyone has been surprised by the scale and the pace at which the Taliban have taken over in Afghanistan'
    -Dominic Raab


    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1427306609118793733
    I think both those statements are true.
    But what else would all these journalists do, if they couldn’t spend their day sarcastically retweeting each other in the middle of a massive humanitarian crisis?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,164
    edited August 2021

    Am I the only one who, on seeing the Taliban lads inside the presidential palace in Kabul, was reminded of the Trumpites inside the Capitol?

    Yes, this was exactly what I was going to post earlier. Awkwardly unkempt, taciturn and subtly menacing people suddenly finding themselves in stiff environments and gold chairs, and backdrops of carefully lit paintings. I was going to add that the only difference was that this time they were here to stay.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

    I agree with Selebian ; Trump was the one who first did a deal with them, releasing 5000 of their top commanders and then effectively signing away the country by immediately offering a departure date. In fact he wanted to do it even more quickly than Biden, so I can't really see how he's the champion of Afghan womanhood here.
    I wish I could remember the thrust of commentary on here when Trump did that deal. Was there much? Given I can't remember I'm thinking not.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    Where's the rain that was expected at Nottingham? Incidentally, someone's just posted on the BBC site that the two teams don't like each other.

    India are a team modelled on Kohli. Very good at cricket, not particularly likeable, and rather arrogant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Extras

    1st:15
    2nd:33
    3rd:15
    4th:30

    Shouldn't matter now, but in a tight game like this that could have been crucial.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    kinabalu said:

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afghanistans-first-female-mayor-waiting-taliban-come-kill-her-1152127

    These are the people that Kinabalu and Co are happy to sacrifice just so their precious bullshite values don't get challenged.

    Oh but Trump's the enemy right?

    I agree with Selebian ; Trump was the one who first did a deal with them, releasing 5000 of their top commanders and then effectively signing away the country by immediately offering a departure date. In fact he wanted to do it even more quickly than Biden, so I can't really see how he's the champion of Afghan womanhood here.
    I wish I could remember the thrust of commentary on here when Trump did that deal. Was there much? Given I can't remember I'm thinking not.
    Dominc Raab applies?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    I would not be so sure, if Afghanistan becomes a haven for militant jihadis again and they only need to get through once.

    Ironically that would make Americans even more pro gun too, to protect themselves from terrorists
    You do understand all these people have been operating freely in the Mountains of Pakistan as well as in Afghansitan for the last 20 years right?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    Perhaps, but I get the impression the Afghan government half believed what they said about the capacity of the army - just as did western leaders.
    If the NYT and Wapo can come up with the stories of their selling on their arms to the Taliban, why could not US intelligence ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    Perhaps, but I get the impression the Afghan government half believed what they said about the capacity of the army - just as did western leaders.
    If the NYT and Wapo can come up with the stories of their selling on their arms to the Taliban, why could not US intelligence ?
    US intelligence? Contradiction in terms.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    Perhaps, but I get the impression the Afghan government half believed what they said about the capacity of the army - just as did western leaders.
    If the NYT and Wapo can come up with the stories of their selling on their arms to the Taliban, why could not US intelligence ?
    I think everyone ends up believing their own propaganda at some point, even when they started out knowing it was untrue, because they hope that it is true.
  • SUBJUGATE THE HAMBURGER
    HYUFD said:

    LDs up 1% to 10% after opposing the Afghan withdrawal. Tories unchanged, Labour down 1%
    so .. noise

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Floater said:

    I'm sorry - but this is just disgusting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427250837664014336

    REAKING: A German Defense Ministry spokesperson on its responsibility to get local Afghan support staff and translators out of the country: "It's not like we forced them to cooperate with us."

    America also considering restricting flights out to US citizens only [ no locals

    Real race to the bottom in shameless abdication of moral duty around Afghanistan, sadly. Lots of people trying to push the blame on their natural opponents rather than allies, but the truth is there's plenty to go around.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,378
    HYUFD said:

    LDs up 1% to 10% after opposing the Afghan withdrawal. Tories unchanged, Labour down 1%
    On the other hand it could just be MoE.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    Perhaps, but I get the impression the Afghan government half believed what they said about the capacity of the army - just as did western leaders.
    If the NYT and Wapo can come up with the stories of their selling on their arms to the Taliban, why could not US intelligence ?
    I think everyone ends up believing their own propaganda at some point, even when they started out knowing it was untrue, because they hope that it is true.
    When the USSR fell, it surprised the Politburo and the CIA.

    Because the CIA had been stealing the same reports the Politburo read - things were not great but not that bad.

    At each step up in the hierarchy, the reports were improved. So after a dozen iterations of this, they were complete fantasy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,689

    SUBJUGATE THE HAMBURGER

    Do you have a militant vegan website open in another tab?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Can't say Curran's covered himself with glory as a batsman. If he's in next time, he's best at No 11.
    Bit unfair. He was superb in 2018 series against India, and had two very good first balls here. I worry more about his lack of pace as a bowler. He needs a few more mph to cut it.

    Yes - might be harsh, but he recalls the numerous bits-and-pieces cricketers England resorted to in the place of genuine test all rounders, back in the 90s.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    At least three figures now!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Game over at Lord’s now.

    Can't say Curran's covered himself with glory as a batsman. If he's in next time, he's best at No 11.
    Bit unfair. He was superb in 2018 series against India, and had two very good first balls here. I worry more about his lack of pace as a bowler. He needs a few more mph to cut it.

    Yes - might be harsh, but he recalls the numerous bits-and-pieces cricketers England resorted to in the place of genuine test all rounders, back in the 90s.
    I just think he needs to be 85 mph, not 80. I also think if Woakes and Stokes are fit, he’s nowhere near the side.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,873

    SUBJUGATE THE HAMBURGER

    Do you have a militant vegan website open in another tab?
    More like role playing: at a guess, C18 privateering.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    Exactly 50/50 in the cricket now. The draw and India both trading at 2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    Dear lord, how did we get on to this?

    I blame whoever mentioned incels. Was it @Cyclefree , who when wisely ran off?

    On a betting angle (because what more is there to be said on Afghanistan? It's a massive failure) does this have any impact on Biden? Not sure that it does. He looks a bit silly for the things that were said, but it's not his failure - neither he, nor the Democrats, took the US in to Afghanistan. His predecessor had committed to withdrawal and done some interesting deals with the Taliban, it seems. Not a great deal of mud that can be thrown that won't splatter back on the Republicans.

    The one thing that could make a difference is if Afghanistan does once again become a terrorist breeding ground and that leads to attacks on US soil. Biden then might get the blame for actually taking the troops out in that case (attack ad: Bush did what was needed and kept us safe for 20 years, Biden threw it all away).

    (Disclosure: I'm on Biden for a small amount for 2024 and a few of the more likely Dem outsiders at long odds as trading bets if he looks like he'll stand down)

    It's always hard to judge during the thick of things, but my hunch FWIW is that this will damage Biden. The utter chaos, the humiliation, the crude attempts to blame Trump, and the increasingly ludicrous statements made by US government spokesmen, are a pretty damaging combination.

    Some people have said that the fall of Saigon didn't damage Ford, but I don't think that's the same. The US was utterly fed up with Vietnam, with large numbers of casualties and with a generation of young men traumatised by it. Sure, they're fed up with the role in Afghanistan as well, but at a much lower level. They probably thought it was time to leave and no great harm would come from doing so; just a quiet end to a completed mission. The reality is going to be something of a shock.
    But would it have hurt Biden as much as the other option which was Trump continually saying he would have left now as American soldiers arrived back injured / killed.

    I don't think Biden had any decent options, just 2 really bad ones...
    That's right. And he judged that other option as worse for him domestically. Perfectly rational and imo objectively justifiable too. It's a badly bungled final exit but his predecessor made the weather on this and he still looms large in US politics. For all the embarrassment of what's happening here, and the potentially malign consequences, the prospect of Donald Trump winning back power is the ultimate horror and Biden's first and foremost duty is to minimize the chances of it happening. There is nothing more important than that.
    If 9/11 2 happens on US soil as a result of this it doesn't matter what happens, Trump probably will be back in 2024 no matter how hypocritical it looks another major terrorist attack on US soil would still have happened on Biden's watch not Trump's
    Something on that scale or anything like - and clearly hatched in Afghanistan - is highly unlikely to happen in the next 3 years. Of course if it does, it will have huge ramifications, inc for the election.

    If the criteria is violent death of Americans by murder, however, they might be better advised worrying about guns wielded by their own citizens. That's a 9/11 every other month.
    I would not be so sure, if Afghanistan becomes a haven for militant jihadis again and they only need to get through once.

    Ironically that would make Americans even more pro gun too, to protect themselves from terrorists
    You do understand all these people have been operating freely in the Mountains of Pakistan as well as in Afghansitan for the last 20 years right?
    Forced there by the invasion and of course US special forces went to Pakistan to kill Bin Laden too after he fled there from Afghanistan
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    Where's the rain that was expected at Nottingham? Incidentally, someone's just posted on the BBC site that the two teams don't like each other.

    India are a team modelled on Kohli. Very good at cricket, not particularly likeable, and rather arrogant.
    Multi millionaire twentysomething men playing elite sport arrogant? Who could have expected that?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 2021

    SUBJUGATE THE HAMBURGER

    HYUFD said:

    LDs up 1% to 10% after opposing the Afghan withdrawal. Tories unchanged, Labour down 1%
    so .. noise

    Presenting MOE as substantive seems to me even more misleading than comment on subsamples. HYUFD as a polling buff should know better.

    But props to Ed Davey for being ahead of the game (Aug 4) and for taking the right, but ostensibly belligerent and unLibDemmy, stand, on Aug 4. I have a vote looking for a home next GE ...

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/ed-davey-government-is-failing-afghan-people-68329.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    Quincel said:

    Floater said:

    I'm sorry - but this is just disgusting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427250837664014336

    REAKING: A German Defense Ministry spokesperson on its responsibility to get local Afghan support staff and translators out of the country: "It's not like we forced them to cooperate with us."

    America also considering restricting flights out to US citizens only [ no locals

    Real race to the bottom in shameless abdication of moral duty around Afghanistan, sadly. Lots of people trying to push the blame on their natural opponents rather than allies, but the truth is there's plenty to go around.
    Afghan refugees are really not popular in some quarters in Germany. Ahem... cultural compatibility issues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    It is remarkable how little actual fighting there has been. Despite the panic at the airport, in the rest of the country no-one seems to have considered it worthwhile making much effort to prevent the Taliban strolling in and taking over.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,796
    HYUFD said:

    LDs up 1% to 10% after opposing the Afghan withdrawal. Tories unchanged, Labour down 1%
    Much as I would like to get excited by this, it really is meaningless at the 1% change. 3% and I'm interested, 5% and really excited. 1% does nothing to me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    kinabalu said:

    Exactly 50/50 in the cricket now. The draw and India both trading at 2.

    Value on India there. Only an hour to go.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,418
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    It is remarkable how little actual fighting there has been. Despite the panic at the airport, in the rest of the country no-one seems to have considered it worthwhile making much effort to prevent the Taliban strolling in and taking over.
    Sounded like there was heavy fighting in Lashkar Gah a week ago, but it's hard to keep people fighting in what looks like a lost cause.

    This is why the security experts were worried when the Afghan government didn't go with the consolidation plan early on - they lost important reserves of men, material and confidence trying to defend everything instead of making a controlled retreat to a defensible situation.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,889
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    LDs up 1% to 10% after opposing the Afghan withdrawal. Tories unchanged, Labour down 1%
    Much as I would like to get excited by this, it really is meaningless at the 1% change. 3% and I'm interested, 5% and really excited. 1% does nothing to me.
    You'd be surprised what it does to some on here.

    CON -1 and LAB +1 is Starmer measuring up the curtains at No.10 or the end of civilisation as we know it (delete as appropriate).

    CON +1 and LAB -1 is Johnson winning a second term to lead the country to new heights of glory or the end of civilisation as we know it (delete as appropriate).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Without wishing to pile on for the sake of it, this gives a flavour of the delusion of the Afghan government.
    An interview with Ghani from mid May.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-i-know-i-am-only-one-bullet-away-from-death-a-82dc3dd6-3c27-4f93-97c9-d6cddf0cd117

    DER SPIEGEL: How long can your government resist the Taliban’s attacks without U.S. support?

    Ghani: Forever. If I did anything, it was to prepare our forces for this situation. We have already effectively resisted the first wave of attacks in May. But are you writing about that too? We are defensible….


    DER SPIEGEL: All that has been built up over 20 years can quickly be shattered. In just one night, for example, the Taliban looted everything they could from institutions, schools and universities in a raid in Kunduz. Has all the reconstruction work by the West, including Germany’s Bundeswehr armed forces, been in vain?

    Ghani: I assure you, the women will no longer give up their rights here, nor do they need foreign advisers to represent them. Thirty percent of the administration are women, 58 percent of government officials are young, well-educated people under 40. Our army is a volunteer army. Afghan society has a lively discourse among itself; it makes sovereign decisions. I think this awareness in society is irreversible….


    Ghani: I know I am only one bullet away from death. There have been many attempts on my life. But Afghanistan is not South Vietnam, and I did not come here in a coup. I was elected by the people. I’ve never had an American bodyguard or an American tank protecting me. Before I became president, I lived abroad for 28 years, and had a successful career. But I was not happy. No power in the world could persuade me to now get on a plane and leave this country. It is a country I love, and I will die defending...


    The claim about being the world's largest producer of pine nuts seems also to be fantasy.

    In fairness, he could hardly have admitted publicly the Afghan forces were a paper tiger. Though it seems pretty clear as low as the expectations privately were from many, they were still way too high.
    It is remarkable how little actual fighting there has been. Despite the panic at the airport, in the rest of the country no-one seems to have considered it worthwhile making much effort to prevent the Taliban strolling in and taking over.
    Sounded like there was heavy fighting in Lashkar Gah a week ago, but it's hard to keep people fighting in what looks like a lost cause.

    This is why the security experts were worried when the Afghan government didn't go with the consolidation plan early on - they lost important reserves of men, material and confidence trying to defend everything instead of making a controlled retreat to a defensible situation.
    The massive cost - borne by the Americans - of training and equipping what turned out to be a non existent army, is the biggest scandal. Doubtless the Taliban will find some at least of the equipment useful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Major breaking news, Boris and Macron to hold......a virtual G7 summit on Afghanistan.

    So I am sure they can all rest easy in Kabul tonight
    https://twitter.com/DarrenGBNews/status/1427310517849399296?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Exactly 50/50 in the cricket now. The draw and India both trading at 2.

    Value on India there. Only an hour to go.
    Someone has very unkindly posted this on the BBC site.
    'What's Kohli doing? Three wickets to get and he's got two slips, leg slip, gully, short extra? Surely he knows that the way you bowl out the tail is to put four men out on the leg-side boundary...?'
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Interesting perspective which, I think, has some merit;

    “The real failure lies with the U.S. officials who have lied repeatedly about the alleged progress being made in building an effective government and military. Particularly shameful are those who pretend that the U.S. could have stayed the course in Afghanistan without cost. The option, as President Biden rightfully noted yesterday, was to either surge U.S. forces again or withdraw from Afghanistan’s civil war. The former would have meant indefinite and increased deployments of U.S. forces to fight for people who were not willing to fight for the government we imagined for them.”

    https://quincyinst.org/press/reflections-on-the-events-of-the-past-week-in-afghanistan/

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,889
    It now seems rather than Saigon in April 1975, we're going back to Busan in the autumn of 1950.

    The Pentagon spokesman almost seems to be suggesting the country can be recaptured from the perimeter of Kabul Airport.

    The Afghan Army has "tangible advantages" over the Taliban - well, less territory to defend is one.
This discussion has been closed.