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Better Together: Olympic edition – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,594
    edited August 2021
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    It is Bidens failed end to the war and symbolic of the decline of the west.

    It is every bit as damning
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,028
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

    America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

    Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.
    Just a thought

    What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

    I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did
    They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

    Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

    They fucked it up

    "This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

    https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20
    This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.
    That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?
    I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.
    They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

    Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.
    I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

    Many of them would be delighted to seize multiple western hostages, and they would happily invite America back only to humiliate it again, because they believe Allah is on their side and they will always, eventually, win. They must be particularly triumphalist right now
    You see Logic as a Western owned trait?
    Oh just fuck off tedious Woke twit
    I'm simply asking you to justify your view that Logic is a Western owned trait.

    You should stop spraying mindless shit all over here if any challenge to it causes you to lose your temper.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


    "Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

    https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


    Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

    It's just f*cking embarrassing
    And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

    It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
    Trump's withdrawal.
    This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
    BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

    I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
    More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

    It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
    Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame


    The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office

    The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
    Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
    The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
    Structure = engineers.

    Content, not so much.
    The original idea for the content of the Dome was a The Great Exhibition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Exhibition) Part II

    The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    All that still stands between Biden and making changes on the transfornational scale of LBJ are just two Democratic Senators.

    I expect they will be made even more aware by the Democratic party just how much rides on that going through now , and how that will be the only way to recast a more defining positive on the entire Biden presidency , following this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,434

    Andy_JS said:

    Our Genial Host - ? Reference I don't get?

    It's a longstanding nickname for the owner of this website.
    But why, how did it come to be
    Someone decided to call him Our Genial Host one day I think. No particular reason.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,594

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Sometimes you distinctly lack a sense of humour
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,882
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    I realise that after years of barely a peep on Afghanistan from your various manifestations that you're now an authority on it and the geopolitical consequences of these events, but I'd still put a couple of weeks of Taliban advances and today's indistinct disintegration in the the 'too early to tell' category.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    It really depends how bad it gets from here

    If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off

    But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.

    The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast

    This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited August 2021

    Leon said:

    If this gets worse Biden could be gone by next Tuesday

    Up there with your the SNP won't be the largest party at Holyrood prediction from earlier on this year.
    Result of the Scottish general election, May 2021 - legislators

    Pro-independence parties
    SNP 64 (+1)
    Grn 8 (+2)
    Total 72 (+3)

    Unionist parties
    Con 31 (nc)
    Lab 22 (-2)
    LD 4 (-1)
    Total 57 (-3)

    Pro-independence Hold; increased majority

    Sean makes it up as he goes along.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Our Genial Host - ? Reference I don't get?

    It's a longstanding nickname for the owner of this website.
    But why, how did it come to be
    Someone decided to call him Our Genial Host one day I think. No particular reason.
    OGH is an fairly standard interenetism for the site owner of a blog. Our Gracious Host or Our Genial Host.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835

    Aslan said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    Most Americans think, rightly or wrongly, that there are failed states all over the world run by terrorists that hate them. The idea that we should occupy them forever is still unpopular.
    The US occupied West Germany for nigh on 50 years and that was a resounding success.
    The US, the UK and France jointly occupied West Germany, and that occupation (other than of the Saarland) ended de facto in 1955.

    Beyond that, one would venture to suggest that the Allies had somewhat more promising material to work with in Munich and Hamburg than they did in Jalalabad and Herat.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,434
    Headline on New York Times website:

    "Afghanistan Government Collapses
    President Ghana flees as insurgents enter capital"

    https://www.nytimes.com
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    It really depends how bad it gets from here

    If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off

    But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.

    The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast

    This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
    It could be ofcourse that the Turks and Imran Khan are elready exercising much more influence under the radar than the west has understood, with all the poor intelligence leading up to this. That might also help explain how things have worked out surprisingly quietly, so far.

    The Pakistani President is in Istanbul as we speak.

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1426914213256208384
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,539
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    It really depends how bad it gets from here

    If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off

    But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.

    The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast

    This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
    The alternative view is that he has finger on the pulse of blue collar/rust belt america in a way that none of us has and he thinks that politically that this is what they want.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

    America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

    Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.
    Just a thought

    What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

    I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did
    They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

    Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

    They fucked it up

    "This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

    https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20
    This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.
    That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?
    I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.
    They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

    Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.
    I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

    Many of them would be delighted to seize multiple western hostages, and they would happily invite America back only to humiliate it again, because they believe Allah is on their side and they will always, eventually, win. They must be particularly triumphalist right now
    You see Logic as a Western owned trait?
    Oh just fuck off tedious Woke twit
    I'm simply asking you to justify your view that Logic is a Western owned trait.

    You should stop spraying mindless shit all over here if any challenge to it causes you to lose your temper.
    Please. I certainly did not lose my temper, I merely stated the facts of the matter

    You ARE a tedious Woke twit

    And I DO want you to fuck off, because you are exceptionally boring, unimaginative, parochial, inane, vapid, monotoned and sanctimonious. And you're a retired accountant. Of COURSE I want you to fuck off

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
    Gosh yes. even worse. Queuing for hours for a plane that never moves. So grim. As the Taliban surrounds the airport, guns in hand
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,054
    Al Jazeera showing live pictures of the Taliban in the presidential palace.

    Not very good "optics"
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    It really depends how bad it gets from here

    If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off

    But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.

    The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast

    This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
    The alternative view is that he has finger on the pulse of blue collar/rust belt america in a way that none of us has and he thinks that politically that this is what they want.

    Trump (or his officials) started taking the troops out on Feb 29th 2020. Part of the deal he (or they) struck was a certain reduction within 165 days, i.e. before they cast their votes for President in November. So it may be not so much that Biden has his finger on the pulse of blue collar/rust belt america as that he (Biden) thinks that Trump had his finger there.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Hard to see this as anything other than a victory for Islamism and a disaster for the secular west.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    ping said:

    Hard to see this as anything other than a victory for Islamism and a disaster for the secular west.

    Jeremy Corbyn
    @jeremycorbyn
    ·
    8 Jul
    Today in Parliament I insisted on an Inquiry into the decision to go to war in Afghanistan and the conduct of it. 2O years of so much loss: more than 450 British troops, thousands of Americans & many thousands more Afghans.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    The US is sending up a lot of air tankers, indicative perhaps of a number of potential realities.

    1. There is limited air fuel available at KBL
    2. Aircraft arent going to be given any time on the ground
    3. There is air combat power coming in and it intends to linger
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Some movement on the Next Cabinet Minister to Leave market:

    Sharma 11/4 shortening
    Patel 6/1 shortening
    Williamson 6/1
    Gove 7/1 shortening
    Frost 8/1 shortening
    14 bar
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,028
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    https://twitter.com/vali_nasr/status/1426946919054516230

    here is the most important symbolism of fall of Kabul: the Taliban flag will be flying across #Afghanistan on the 20th anniversary of 9/11
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    I’m watching Chernobyl to make myself feel better about western civilisation
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,242

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    I think that the US possesses a level of military capability that the UK doesn't, so it's legitimate to be harder on Biden than on Johnson.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
    I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,028
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

    America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

    Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.
    Just a thought

    What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

    I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did
    They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

    Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

    They fucked it up

    "This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

    https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20
    This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.
    That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?
    I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.
    They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

    Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.
    I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

    Many of them would be delighted to seize multiple western hostages, and they would happily invite America back only to humiliate it again, because they believe Allah is on their side and they will always, eventually, win. They must be particularly triumphalist right now
    You see Logic as a Western owned trait?
    Oh just fuck off tedious Woke twit
    I'm simply asking you to justify your view that Logic is a Western owned trait.

    You should stop spraying mindless shit all over here if any challenge to it causes you to lose your temper.
    Please. I certainly did not lose my temper, I merely stated the facts of the matter

    You ARE a tedious Woke twit

    And I DO want you to fuck off, because you are exceptionally boring, unimaginative, parochial, inane, vapid, monotoned and sanctimonious. And you're a retired accountant. Of COURSE I want you to fuck off
    La di da.

    So what about this view of yours that Logic is a Western owned trait?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Just thinking: America's military track record since 1945 isn't that great for a supposed superpower


    They've been involved in four really big ground wars:

    Korea: won (or at least a score draw)
    Vietnam: lost
    Iraq: lost, narrowly
    Afghanistan: lost

    (Typing quietly so as not to offend the wife)

    Revolution - baled out by the French

    1812 - beaten by what is now Canada, although they continue to claim victory as a result of the Battle of New Orleans, which occurred in unofficial overtime after the peace treaty was signed.

    Civil War - managed to beat themselves.

    Their most constant successes come against Spanish speaking countries (Mexico, Spanish-American War etc)
    The French Royalty involvement in the American War of Independence is an interesting bit of political blowback on the French. The French got involved to weaken the British hold on North America, smarting at the loss of Canada, so spent a lot of time and treasure supporting the new Republic. The economic cost, and enlightenment ideas set the ground works for their own revolution, and their own route to extinction at the guillotine.
    Paying for the Seven Years War led to the American Revolution.

    Paying for the American Revolution led to the French Revolution.

    Paying for the French Revolution led, ultimately, to Waterloo.
    Paying for Waterloo led to unhappy commuters.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
    I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
    Depends on whether we can get our people out unscathed.

    If there’s a massacre, heads will roll
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907
    IshmaelZ said:

    What does OGH mean is that Mike

    Our Genial Host = Mike
    I always thought it meant Our Great Hero.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,474
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
    There was one US State Department Dash 8 showing on the ground a few minutes ago, presumably that’s there to evacuate US Embassy staff.

    If I had a plane at KBL now, I’d want it somewhere else. Anywhere else would be good. Grab the pilots and get it in the air to somewhere safe.

    Emirates airline came close to landing a 777 there this afternoon, before thinking better of it and returning to base. Their insurers will be pleased with that call.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    ping said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
    I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
    Depends on whether we can get our people out unscathed.

    If there’s a massacre, heads will roll
    That's a fair point..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,539
    alednam said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    It really depends how bad it gets from here

    If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off

    But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.

    The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast

    This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
    The alternative view is that he has finger on the pulse of blue collar/rust belt america in a way that none of us has and he thinks that politically that this is what they want.

    Trump (or his officials) started taking the troops out on Feb 29th 2020. Part of the deal he (or they) struck was a certain reduction within 165 days, i.e. before they cast their votes for President in November. So it may be not so much that Biden has his finger on the pulse of blue collar/rust belt america as that he (Biden) thinks that Trump had his finger there.
    Lawson in STimes this sunday saying they are going after the same voters with this policy.

    I'm not sure how it fits with "America is back" (@c Biden Feb 2021) mind.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,882
    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
    I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
    Depends on whether we can get our people out unscathed.

    If there’s a massacre, heads will roll
    Quite a common feature of massacres.
    Aye.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1426895277361934340?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    Yokes said:

    The US is sending up a lot of air tankers, indicative perhaps of a number of potential realities.

    1. There is limited air fuel available at KBL
    2. Aircraft arent going to be given any time on the ground
    3. There is air combat power coming in and it intends to linger

    Arno Berg
    @arnohb112

    7m
    Part of #Kabul Airport on Fire. Source
    @tagesschau
    20.00
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,539

    IshmaelZ said:

    What does OGH mean is that Mike

    Our Genial Host = Mike
    I always thought it meant Our Great Hero.
    Our Great Holidayer?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,028
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    I think that the US possesses a level of military capability that the UK doesn't, so it's legitimate to be harder on Biden than on Johnson.
    OTOH Johnson is OUR man and Biden is not, so it's also legitimate for a Brit to be harder on Johnson than on Biden.

    Net net it's about flat.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited August 2021
    "Seth Frantzman
    @sfrantzman
    Totally stand by my assessment that Ankara will do outreach to Kabul’s new Taliban government. It is in their interests, they wanted role at airport and have built wall to keep out Afghan migrants-refugees…and it helps links with Pakistan, China, Russia…huge nunber of reasons."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
    There was one US State Department Dash 8 showing on the ground a few minutes ago, presumably that’s there to evacuate US Embassy staff.

    If I had a plane at KBL now, I’d want it somewhere else. Anywhere else would be good. Grab the pilots and get it in the air to somewhere safe.

    Emirates airline came close to landing a 777 there this afternoon, before thinking better of it and returning to base. Their insurers will be pleased with that call.
    There are tragic reports that some commercial airliners panicked and took off half empty, leaving weeping passengers on the runways, who had legit tickets and visas, but who will likely now be unable to escape the country, and will face the cruel wrath of the Taliban

    It is an awful thing
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,882
    Since we're in that part of the world..

    https://twitter.com/archeohistories/status/1426792534890586116?s=20

    Touch of the hairdresser I have to say, or perhaps 90s footballer..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    pigeon said:

    Aslan said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    Most Americans think, rightly or wrongly, that there are failed states all over the world run by terrorists that hate them. The idea that we should occupy them forever is still unpopular.
    The US occupied West Germany for nigh on 50 years and that was a resounding success.
    The US, the UK and France jointly occupied West Germany, and that occupation (other than of the Saarland) ended de facto in 1955.

    Beyond that, one would venture to suggest that the Allies had somewhat more promising material to work with in Munich and Hamburg than they did in Jalalabad and Herat.
    Technically they didn't occupy West Germany. They occupied their separate designated zones of the reduced German territory, including 3 in Berlin. West Germany/FRG came later. But that is PB pedantry.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    It really depends how bad it gets from here

    If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off

    But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.

    The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast

    This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
    In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.

    Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645

    IshmaelZ said:

    What does OGH mean is that Mike

    Our Genial Host = Mike
    I always thought it meant Our Great Hero.
    Old Grey Hair
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    I think that the US possesses a level of military capability that the UK doesn't, so it's legitimate to be harder on Biden than on Johnson.
    OTOH Johnson is OUR man and Biden is not, so it's also legitimate for a Brit to be harder on Johnson than on Biden.

    Net net it's about flat.
    No. Biden has skewered America’s allies with this move. As I said, I think Boris is probably ok so long as Brits aren’t massacred in the coming hours/days.

    If they are, all bets are off.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,294

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
    It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
    The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
    Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.

    Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
    Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
    If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.

    He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
    Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
    What shite

    Once the US pulled out that was it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    UK local R

    image
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    @darkage I agree
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,294

    IshmaelZ said:

    What does OGH mean is that Mike

    Our Genial Host = Mike
    I always thought it meant Our Great Hero.
    Old Grey Hair
    I thought Mike wasn’t troubled by that ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,028

    Since we're in that part of the world..

    https://twitter.com/archeohistories/status/1426792534890586116?s=20

    Touch of the hairdresser I have to say, or perhaps 90s footballer..

    That's JP Getty for me. The one that was kidnapped.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    IshmaelZ said:

    What does OGH mean is that Mike

    Our Genial Host = Mike
    I always thought it meant Our Great Hero.
    Crawler.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


    "Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

    https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


    Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

    It's just f*cking embarrassing
    And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

    It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
    Trump's withdrawal.
    This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
    BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

    I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
    More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

    It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
    Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame


    The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office

    The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
    Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
    The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
    Structure = engineers.

    Content, not so much.
    The original idea for the content of the Dome was a The Great Exhibition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Exhibition) Part II

    The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
    Who gives a shite about the contents when there is some nice engineering to see? (I was really hacked when Oxford Uni demolished the old LNWR railway station there - made up of modules left over from the 1851 building. But that is another story, and it got preserved elsewhere anyway.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    UK case summary

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    Since we're in that part of the world..

    https://twitter.com/archeohistories/status/1426792534890586116?s=20

    Touch of the hairdresser I have to say, or perhaps 90s footballer..

    That's JP Getty for me. The one that was kidnapped.
    Jimmy Page after a botox fail.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    UK deaths

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,539
    Election news:

    "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an election Sunday as he seeks to capitalize on Canada being one of the most fully vaccinated countries in the world.

    Trudeau announced the election would be held on September 20 after visiting the governor general, who holds a mostly ceremonial position representing Britain's Queen Elizabeth II as head of state."

    D Mail.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    UK R

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,594
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
    Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.

    Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.

    “After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added

    This is complete failure through weakness, incompetence, and total strategic incoherence,” Trump said. “What a disgrace it will be when the Taliban raises their flag over America’s Embassy in Kabul.”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,264
    What must rank as the most feeble effort to defend territory in history .

    The Afghan troops number many more than the Taliban and had lots of resources at their disposal and yet Kabul is going to fall in a matter of days .

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,474
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
    There was one US State Department Dash 8 showing on the ground a few minutes ago, presumably that’s there to evacuate US Embassy staff.

    If I had a plane at KBL now, I’d want it somewhere else. Anywhere else would be good. Grab the pilots and get it in the air to somewhere safe.

    Emirates airline came close to landing a 777 there this afternoon, before thinking better of it and returning to base. Their insurers will be pleased with that call.
    There are tragic reports that some commercial airliners panicked and took off half empty, leaving weeping passengers on the runways, who had legit tickets and visas, but who will likely now be unable to escape the country, and will face the cruel wrath of the Taliban

    It is an awful thing
    I can’t see civilian operations resuming any time soon, too many unknowns and risks. It’s going to be everyone who needs to get out waiting for military uplift capacity, which might take a while.

    Let’s hope that everything runs smoothly, and that those now in charge in Afghanistan are prepared to facilitate the evacuation.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
    Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.

    Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.

    “After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added

    This is complete failure through weakness, incompetence, and total strategic incoherence,” Trump said. “What a disgrace it will be when the Taliban raises their flag over America’s Embassy in Kabul.”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
    His fans will believe black is white, so they'll believe that. Considering Trump told his generals he wanted the same thing done even faster, and the concept of Trump's deal with the Taliban continuing deterrence is a poor joke, this may have already happened a few months ago if he'd stayed president.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    Afghans going to the airport - but not to fly, just so they can be under the protection of the US Army. Which is leaving

    This is SHAMEFUL

    "people are skipping from homes to airport to be under protection of US army."

    https://twitter.com/sahraakarimi/status/1426967047527927809?s=20
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,700

    Sandpit said:

    Twitter is full of thousands of approbatory tweets from Pakistan. If this newest incarnation of the Taliban can indeed be moderated or reset in their relationship with the outside world in any way, Imran Khan is going to be a key player.

    Yes, Khan is going to be a key figure in how things play out, across the region in the coming weeks and months. Wouldn’t want to be in his shoes today.
    He's a competent all-rounder.
    He is a cheat.. amply qualified to be a politician....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
    Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.

    Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.

    “After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added

    This is complete failure through weakness, incompetence, and total strategic incoherence,” Trump said. “What a disgrace it will be when the Taliban raises their flag over America’s Embassy in Kabul.”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
    His fans will believe black is white, so they'll believe that. Considering Trump told his generals he wanted the same thing done even faster, this may have already happened a few months ago if he'd won the election.
    Err ... perhaps not the most appropriate metaphor. But I don't differ with the analysis at all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Some kind of Taliban leader, broadcasting live on Al Jazeera from inside the presidential palace in Kabul with a bunch of armed dudes, says he was in Guantanamo for 8 years and hails the “peaceful” takeover of the government.
    https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1426975338328961039
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    BREAKING: Liz Truss has signed a trade deal with Janet from Norwich who sells marmalade on Ebay

    "It will be jam tomorrow AND jam today!" The Secretary of State crowed in the House of Commons while announcing the deal.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


    "Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

    https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


    Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

    It's just f*cking embarrassing
    And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

    It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
    Trump's withdrawal.
    This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
    BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

    I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
    More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

    It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
    Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame


    The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office

    The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
    Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
    The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
    Structure = engineers.

    Content, not so much.
    The original idea for the content of the Dome was a The Great Exhibition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Exhibition) Part II

    The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
    Who gives a shite about the contents when there is some nice engineering to see? (I was really hacked when Oxford Uni demolished the old LNWR railway station there - made up of modules left over from the 1851 building. But that is another story, and it got preserved elsewhere anyway.)
    I actually went to the Millennium Dome Exhibition and had a reasonably nice day out IIRC.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,888
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


    "Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

    https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


    Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

    It's just f*cking embarrassing
    And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

    It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
    Trump's withdrawal.
    This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
    BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

    I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
    More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

    It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
    Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame


    The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office

    The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
    Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
    The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
    Structure = engineers.

    Content, not so much.
    The original idea for the content of the Dome was a The Great Exhibition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Exhibition) Part II

    The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
    Who gives a shite about the contents when there is some nice engineering to see? (I was really hacked when Oxford Uni demolished the old LNWR railway station there - made up of modules left over from the 1851 building. But that is another story, and it got preserved elsewhere anyway.)
    When they redid the station, they found that a couple of pieces of iron bracing some rotting timer were actually original broad gauge track.... I'd wondered as an 8 year old... they matched the description in Rolt perfectly and were quite unusual.

    Land Mine College was quite... special....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,700
    edited August 2021

    Some movement on the Next Cabinet Minister to Leave market:

    Sharma 11/4 shortening
    Patel 6/1 shortening
    Williamson 6/1
    Gove 7/1 shortening
    Frost 8/1 shortening
    14 bar



    zzzzzzz
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
    There was one US State Department Dash 8 showing on the ground a few minutes ago, presumably that’s there to evacuate US Embassy staff.

    If I had a plane at KBL now, I’d want it somewhere else. Anywhere else would be good. Grab the pilots and get it in the air to somewhere safe.

    Emirates airline came close to landing a 777 there this afternoon, before thinking better of it and returning to base. Their insurers will be pleased with that call.
    There are tragic reports that some commercial airliners panicked and took off half empty, leaving weeping passengers on the runways, who had legit tickets and visas, but who will likely now be unable to escape the country, and will face the cruel wrath of the Taliban

    It is an awful thing
    Can you imagine if you were denied boarding because you haven't done the right COVID test?

    I've watched them today - it seems like a few commercial flights got out gradually over the course of the day, but I don't think there will be any more. What is most eerie is the normality of it all: the people with hand luggage and neck cushions for the flight; kids playing around in the terminal building, etc.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,207
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Since we're in that part of the world..

    https://twitter.com/archeohistories/status/1426792534890586116?s=20

    Touch of the hairdresser I have to say, or perhaps 90s footballer..

    That's JP Getty for me. The one that was kidnapped.
    Jimmy Page after a botox fail.
    This one better captures his essential cuddliness:

    https://www.google.com/search?source=univ&tbm=isch&q=alexander+the+great+painting&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjxhLzw1rPyAhU_hf0HHdWUChEQ7Al6BAgGEFQ&biw=1624&bih=914#imgrc=g_D4ooWOrZNSTM
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited August 2021
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
    Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.

    Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.

    “After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added

    This is complete failure through weakness, incompetence, and total strategic incoherence,” Trump said. “What a disgrace it will be when the Taliban raises their flag over America’s Embassy in Kabul.”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
    His fans will believe black is white, so they'll believe that. Considering Trump told his generals he wanted the same thing done even faster, this may have already happened a few months ago if he'd won the election.
    Err ... perhaps not the most appropriate metaphor. But I don't differ with the analysis at all.
    Yes, perhaps you're right, on that particular point.

    Some of his fans are more likely to believe black and white should never be close to each other.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,276
    .

    Some movement on the Next Cabinet Minister to Leave market:

    Sharma 11/4 shortening
    Patel 6/1 shortening
    Williamson 6/1
    Gove 7/1 shortening
    Frost 8/1 shortening
    14 bar



    zzzzzzz
    Well someone has got to leave next, and as this is a betting site, odds as to who that might be seems a more than relevant point for discussion.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    UN security council meeting tomorrow morning says al jazeera

    https://www.aljazeera.com/live/

    Currently showing live footage of Afghan flag being taken down and rolled up in pres palace
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835

    Election news:

    "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an election Sunday as he seeks to capitalize on Canada being one of the most fully vaccinated countries in the world.

    Trudeau announced the election would be held on September 20 after visiting the governor general, who holds a mostly ceremonial position representing Britain's Queen Elizabeth II as head of state."

    D Mail.

    Canadian friend not exactly thrilled at forthcoming election. She predicts that Trudeau will win but not at all sure he'll get the outright majority he is after. Main campaign theme likely to be mudslinging about relative efficacy of Covid response of federal government and various opposition-held provinces. Whether fed-up Liberal voters in Ontario and Quebec will stick with him is seen as crucial.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    DavidL said:

    I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.

    We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.

    On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Leon said:

    Afghans going to the airport - but not to fly, just so they can be under the protection of the US Army. Which is leaving

    This is SHAMEFUL

    "people are skipping from homes to airport to be under protection of US army."

    https://twitter.com/sahraakarimi/status/1426967047527927809?s=20

    One of the few times I agree with you. This is a shameful abandonment of our allies and friends.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    "In the check-in area and at the security controls of the airport of #Kabul there is no one left. Everyone is on the runways trying to get on a plane and run away from Afghanistan" -- via https://twitter.com/oscardiazdliano/

  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    The US has been caught napping on the need for air combat cover. You'd expect it over the area by now, in fact you'd have expected some kind of presence in Kabul such at the Hercules based gunships or attack helicopters (which admittedly require a suprisingly large amount of logistics).

    Today the Taliban said they werent moving into Kabul, later in the day they moved into the city. The US air presence is a long way away but it is arriving, probably in the form of B52s, the proverbial sledgehammer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    edited August 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


    The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

    https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

    There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
    There was one US State Department Dash 8 showing on the ground a few minutes ago, presumably that’s there to evacuate US Embassy staff.

    If I had a plane at KBL now, I’d want it somewhere else. Anywhere else would be good. Grab the pilots and get it in the air to somewhere safe.

    Emirates airline came close to landing a 777 there this afternoon, before thinking better of it and returning to base. Their insurers will be pleased with that call.
    There are tragic reports that some commercial airliners panicked and took off half empty, leaving weeping passengers on the runways, who had legit tickets and visas, but who will likely now be unable to escape the country, and will face the cruel wrath of the Taliban

    It is an awful thing
    I can’t see civilian operations resuming any time soon, too many unknowns and risks. It’s going to be everyone who needs to get out waiting for military uplift capacity, which might take a while.

    Let’s hope that everything runs smoothly, and that those now in charge in Afghanistan are prepared to facilitate the evacuation.
    There's an echo of this on my local council, which has been asked to provide support for settling for a few Afghan interpreters and their families. We've said emphatically yes - would be shameful to abandon them, and every council should take a share of the people who helped the British army. I don't know if that's controversial elsewhere, but it has cross-party support here.
    Good to hear the politicians of Surrey still have some honour and decency.

    Edit - that sounds sarcastic, but it wasn’t meant to be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,276
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

    The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

    However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

    Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

    By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
    Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

    Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
    The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
    You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

    And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

    "Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

    And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

    The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
    When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

    Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
    I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
    LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

    Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
    This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
    The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

    It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
    Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
    I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
    And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
    Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.

    Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.

    “After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added

    This is complete failure through weakness, incompetence, and total strategic incoherence,” Trump said. “What a disgrace it will be when the Taliban raises their flag over America’s Embassy in Kabul.”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
    You are talking Sean Spicer grade bollocks.

    What flag do you think the Taliban would be raising on Trump's exit from Kabul?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    German foreign ministry says it is sending military planes to Kabul overnight to evacuate as many German nationals and local staff as possible.
    https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1426979450630119424
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158
    edited August 2021
    YoungTurk said:

    Where will the members of the compradore regime (soon to be an ex-regime) run to from Afghanistan? There seems little point in forming a "government in exile", so there will probably be "individual solutions" only, with enormous premiums on seats on flights - any seats, any planes, any destination. Soon there will be no embassies to rush to, which leaves the Shah's successful exit to Panama and Honecker's unsuccessful exit to Moscow and then the Chilean embassy in that city as precedents. Nice homes in Florida and Ivy League places for their brats, under that nice Mr Biden? Er nope. Even Batista didn't manage to get to the US, despite Florida being so close to Cuba. He ran to the Dominican Republic and then to Portugal. Oh dear, there wasn't any insurance clause in the sign-up with the Land of Freedom? Swiss bank accounts maybe, but no insurance. That's life. Oops. I've had enough of hearing about the white man's skill at state-building and his deep understanding of the fuzzy-wuzzy's mind, especially if he's been schooled behind 12-foot walls at Eton. I mean who didn't see this coming? Hats off to the Guardian for remembering there was once a town called Saigon. This has been a total and utter f***-up, on the scale of the Iraq invasion or exceeding even that.

    So...where will they go? I'm on a mixture of places. Their problem is that nearby "stans" won't want them, for fear of upsetting their own "Talibans" for next to no return. Ditto most Arab states, although some may benefit from arrangements in the Gulf if they've had enough foresight.

    Well...compradore "president" Ashraf Ghani after running to the US embassy compound has now reportedly left it for one of the nearby stans, namely Tajikistan. I'm not sure whether it's been reported that he has actually arrived there yet, nor who flew him. He's not much use to the US any more. To judge from previous cases of this kind, he probably won't make it back to the US, his long-time place of residence.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Scott_xP said:

    German foreign ministry says it is sending military planes to Kabul overnight to evacuate as many German nationals and local staff as possible.
    https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1426979450630119424

    Bit f*cking late isnt it
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    Yokes said:

    The US has been caught napping on the need for air combat cover. You'd expect it over the area by now, in fact you'd have expected some kind of presence in Kabul such at the Hercules based gunships or attack helicopters (which admittedly require a suprisingly large amount of logistics).

    Today the Taliban said they werent moving into Kabul, later in the day they moved into the city. The US air presence is a long way away but it is arriving, probably in the form of B52s, the proverbial sledgehammer.

    Good prediction


    #BREAKING: Two B-52H heavy bombers including 60-0029 supported by two KC-135R tankers including 57-1506 have headed to #Afghanistan to patrol over the #Kabul. You can't see second aircraft of each type, because they have turned-off their transponders. https://pic.twitter.com/54r5jDNVbZ
This discussion has been closed.