On Sunday evening, former President Hamid Karzai announced on Twitter that he was forming a coordinating council together with Abdullah Abdullah, chairman of the Afghan delegation to peace talks, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the Hesb-i-Islami party, to manage a peaceful transfer of power. Mr. Karzai called on both government and Taliban forces to act with restraint.
Well someone has got to leave next, and as this is a betting site, odds as to who that might be seems a more than relevant point for discussion.
Not right now.. Dickson used to post lots of pointless betting odds. Boris is going nowhere.. who his successor is irrelevant right now.
Huh? This is (supposedly) a political betting blog. I’m fascinated by your proposition that some political betting odds are “pointless”. Please show your workings.
According to the markets, there is actually a percentage of the punting public who do think that Johnson is going. That’s the fun! Put your money where your mouth is.
D+
All the ones you used to.post at 6 am whom few if anyone was interested in and you got banned for iirc I seem remember that you flooded the site with crap.
Huh? New one on me.
I’ve been banned for being rude to Mark Senior, for allegedly having a fake email address (untrue: it’s the one I’m still using right now 15 years later, and Robert Smithson recently contacted me on), for posting Scottish sub-samples, for sticking up for my bullied colleague James Kelly, and just generally for being an annoying Jock, but I cannot recall ever being banned for posting odds. On a betting blog that would be truly bizarre.
A few more betting tips on this blog wouldn't go amiss. Indeed I like @Quincel Saturday mornings slot for this very reason.
Possibly Raab next out in view of the weekends events in Central Asia?
25/1 with WH, 16/1 on Wallace. Someone needs to carry the can for this intelligence failure.
Surely if anybody's going to carry the can for an intelligence failure Gavin Williamson would have to be the favourite?
The thing is that resignation requires a sense of honour, and sacking requires some backbone from the PM. Both are rare phenomena in the Tory Cabinet.
I am on Raab and Wallace for half the price of a pint.
My comment was an (unsuccessful, obviously) attempt at a little joke, pointing to Williamson's lack of any intelligence.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
To be fair, since Chamberlain was the Conservative PM at the time, I suspect you above all others would have been cheering him on.
Fair comment - made me smile when there is nothing to smile about today
Indeed, it's a grim day for international affairs. Better news on the cricket front however!
I fear something monstrous could happen at Kabul Airport in the next 24 hours
Alex Macheras @AlexInAir · 3m Unbelievable, desperate scenes at Kabul’s international airport. thousand of people, families, young children, all trying to leave #Kabul as the Taliban takes hold.
Chaos on the tarmac with people moving around between airline jets"
Looks and sounds overwhelmingly like Afghans to me.
Of course. And?
Millions of Afghans are terrified of the Taliban, many thousands will be executed if they don't escape
Meanwhile, as the uncontrolled airport seethes with thousands of panicking Afghans, you have the airport defended by about 2000 US troops even as it is surrounded by maybe 10,000 triumphalist Taliban, some of them with excellent weapons and serious desire for revenge on America
And just a couple of successful mortars will close the runway and end the "evacuation"
It is not hard to see how this could be an outright catastrophe
I think the Taliban will not risk attacking American troops because then the USAF would bomb the crap out if them. I think all the Westerners will get out safely. I feel bad for the decent Afghans but at some point they need to take responsibility for their own country.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
To be fair, since Chamberlain was the Conservative PM at the time, I suspect you above all others would have been cheering him on.
There's an interesting take on Chamberlain by Alec Douglas-Home, who was Chamberlain's PPS and with him when Munich was 'agreed'. Chamberlain basically said this to Home: 'I know Hitler's going to renege on this, bit if I make a big deal out of it - i.e. wave it around on the tarmac and say "Peace in our time" - then when he does everyone will know what an absolute shit he is and it might even bring in the yanks.' If true, then it puts Chamberlain in a very different light - he was prepared to destroy his own reputation for the greater good.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
He was still a Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Your party should claim the credit for that.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
He was still a Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Your party should claim the credit for that.
All he can claim credit for is some social reforms and maybe allowing more time to rearm, otherwise he allowed Hitler to greatly expand his territory well before he invaded Poland
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
We will need to wait for whatever kind of reports come out of this disaster but it looks in part that the US built a shell of an Afghan army that could only operate with the support of the US.
And I don't think it was done deliberately, I think this was a huge decade and a half long fuck up of bad communication, wilful blindness and incentives.
Like the ARVN in South Vietnam, the Afghan security forces were equipped for an American style high tech war, with weaponry that they couldn't afford otherwise, and immense graft at higher levels. An Americanised military style without American style battlefield intelligence and command doesn't work very well.
"In Bitter Lake, a documentary by the filmmaker Adam Curtis, a short clip illustrates how this this cultural mission was conducted. The footage shows Afghan men and women in a darkened seminar room, sitting in the dim light given off by a projected image of Marcel Duchamp’s celebrated urinal, listening to a lecture given by a young English woman with a faint Roedean-like accent on the work’s significance.
When the lecturer says she does not expect the females in the audience to recognise the object in question, the camera pans away from her to show their reaction. Glancing nervously at one another, the women seem baffled; one shakes her head incredulously. Most of those present seem perplexed not so much as to the function of the object as by the purpose of the lecture. Unfazed, the lecturer assures the audience that the work was a revolutionary act. In later footage, she goes on to assert that Duchamp’s aim was to “fight against the system”."
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
He was still a Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Your party should claim the credit for that.
All he can claim credit for is some social reforms and maybe allowing more time to rearm, otherwise he allowed Hitler to greatly expand his territory well before he invaded Poland
I fear something monstrous could happen at Kabul Airport in the next 24 hours
Alex Macheras @AlexInAir · 3m Unbelievable, desperate scenes at Kabul’s international airport. thousand of people, families, young children, all trying to leave #Kabul as the Taliban takes hold.
Chaos on the tarmac with people moving around between airline jets"
Looks and sounds overwhelmingly like Afghans to me.
An eyewitness described the scene at Kabul airport:
"The departure hall turned into chaos after people said boarding passes were being printed secretly for officials and high-profile people who showed up at the airport.
I saw three former MPs, a few deputy ministers and some celebrities queuing up. Some didn’t even have a booking. We waited for almost eight hours, until airport staff started leaving their desks - first the check-in counters and then the migration and passport desks… different rumours created chaos. Some escaped from the airport and some rushed towards the gates.
No-one was in any of the passport check cabins and the QR scan doors were destroyed. There wasn’t a security check before getting to the gates.
We walked through and saw that the big glass doors between the gates and the airplanes were shattered. People ran towards the last plane (it seems the first plane, which was ours, was filled by officials and took off) and there was a second flight which people started to board.
It was almost a stampede.
We walked back and saw many hopeful passengers just sitting under the airplane near the runway. People were shocked and didn’t know what to do, running from one plane to the other.
We then walked towards the exit to get in the car. Armed men in plain clothes were guarding the airport.
People were very desperate, some were running towards the airport, some were escaping. In order to stop people from getting into the airport, the guards opened fire into the air.
When I was getting out, there was a guy shooting in the air. A few minutes away on the airport’s road, I saw several police vehicles left alone on the road with doors open.
I can still hear sporadic gunshots and helicopters."
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
He was still a Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Your party should claim the credit for that.
All he can claim credit for is some social reforms and maybe allowing more time to rearm, otherwise he allowed Hitler to greatly expand his territory well before he invaded Poland
I said, the Conservative Party should claim the credit, as he was its PM and leader. As it did at the time, and as it did for Suez. You can't pick and choose the bits that [edit] fit your preferred story.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
He was still a Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Your party should claim the credit for that.
All he can claim credit for is some social reforms and maybe allowing more time to rearm, otherwise he allowed Hitler to greatly expand his territory well before he invaded Poland
He was a highly respected CoE in the early Thirties, just a failure at the biggest job. Something other CoE might be wise to note.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
To be fair, since Chamberlain was the Conservative PM at the time, I suspect you above all others would have been cheering him on.
There's an interesting take on Chamberlain by Alec Douglas-Home, who was Chamberlain's PPS and with him when Munich was 'agreed'. Chamberlain basically said this to Home: 'I know Hitler's going to renege on this, bit if I make a big deal out of it - i.e. wave it around on the tarmac and say "Peace in our time" - then when he does everyone will know what an absolute shit he is and it might even bring in the yanks.' If true, then it puts Chamberlain in a very different light - he was prepared to destroy his own reputation for the greater good.
Robert Harris's Munich is very interesting on this.
Yes, I know it's fiction but it does paint a relatively sympathetic picture of Chamerlain, who probably knew war was inevitable but saw the sense in buying time to build Britain's military capability.
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Yes, which leaves our remaining troops surrounded and isolated, though presumably with potential air support. The Taliban tactic will probably be to get close in and be safe because of the airstrike risk of friendly fire deaths..
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
Well I will take up that baton.
Why is the west rich? I would argue that a massive contibutory factor is the scientific method. We are so immersed in this being the 'correct' way of thinking that we hardly notice it - but it is far from the only way of approaching the world, as the medievalists which dominate across parts of the Islamic world and other parts of the third world show. Now, arguably this particular philosophical approach came from the thinking of the ancient Greeks. So it is a western invention. But there is no reason why this approach should be unique to the west.1000 years ago, of course, the west was mired in superstition while the Islamic world led in use of the scientific method. But I don't think it would be too controversial to say much of the Islamic world today is not exactly hot on the Socratic/Cartesian approaches to critical analysis.
Guns Germs and Steel as per Jared Diamond’s book….
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
We will need to wait for whatever kind of reports come out of this disaster but it looks in part that the US built a shell of an Afghan army that could only operate with the support of the US.
And I don't think it was done deliberately, I think this was a huge decade and a half long fuck up of bad communication, wilful blindness and incentives.
Like the ARVN in South Vietnam, the Afghan security forces were equipped for an American style high tech war, with weaponry that they couldn't afford otherwise, and immense graft at higher levels. An Americanised military style without American style battlefield intelligence and command doesn't work very well.
I had very naively assumed they weren't going to make that incredibly obvious mistake but it seems I was wrong.
If I wrote conspiracy theory novels I would plot this out as a way to get hi-tec gear into the hands of the Taliban as the Afghan forces dissolve.
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Yes, which leaves our remaining troops surrounded and isolated, though presumably with potential air support. The Taliban tactic will probably be to get close in and be safe because of the airstrike risk of friendly fire deaths..
The true horror for all those poor bastards trying to flee is that the mere act of fleeing marks them out as traitors, to the Taliban. If they don't get out, they die
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
Neville Chamberlain declared war in 1939, you ignorant twat!
Yes having allowed Hitler to occupy the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and finally to invade Poland in the meantime
He was still a Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Your party should claim the credit for that.
All he can claim credit for is some social reforms and maybe allowing more time to rearm, otherwise he allowed Hitler to greatly expand his territory well before he invaded Poland
I said, the Conservative Party should claim the credit, as he was its PM and leader. As it did at the time, and as it did for Suez. You can't pick and choose the bits that [edit] fit your preferred story.
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
To be fair, since Chamberlain was the Conservative PM at the time, I suspect you above all others would have been cheering him on.
There's an interesting take on Chamberlain by Alec Douglas-Home, who was Chamberlain's PPS and with him when Munich was 'agreed'. Chamberlain basically said this to Home: 'I know Hitler's going to renege on this, bit if I make a big deal out of it - i.e. wave it around on the tarmac and say "Peace in our time" - then when he does everyone will know what an absolute shit he is and it might even bring in the yanks.' If true, then it puts Chamberlain in a very different light - he was prepared to destroy his own reputation for the greater good.
Robert Harris's Munich is very interesting on this.
Yes, I know it's fiction but it does paint a relatively sympathetic picture of Chamerlain, who probably knew war was inevitable but saw the sense in buying time to build Britain's military capability.
There is a degree of truth in that. Britain was rearming to be ready to fight a long, in-depth war. In 1942.
4000 of the B.1/39 Standard Bombers, the interim Spitfire and Hurricanes replaced with 400mph fighters, tanks with 17lbr guns, RN with piles of new aircraft carriers - and battleships...
This was because this was when Germany's military build up was due to complete then.
Hitler kept of playing the roulette table and got his war 2-3 years early.
Interestingly, if it had been anyone else but Hitler, they would have backed off because of this. The contemporary accounts in the German high command are clear - all the generals and senior Nazis wanted a peace - to finish the build up. Only Hitler wanted war - or rather was not prepared to sacrifice anything at all to stop it.
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
The military industrial complex that demands these forever wars is all about the almighty dollar. All this "nation building" is just an excuse for getting suitably bribed congressmen to vote for huge blank checks for their equipment. Same reason why the Israel-Palestine conflict will never end.
88bn is a lorra money. When what the Afghan army needed was AK-47s and Hiluxes, which they know how to use and maintain.
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
We will need to wait for whatever kind of reports come out of this disaster but it looks in part that the US built a shell of an Afghan army that could only operate with the support of the US.
And I don't think it was done deliberately, I think this was a huge decade and a half long fuck up of bad communication, wilful blindness and incentives.
Like the ARVN in South Vietnam, the Afghan security forces were equipped for an American style high tech war, with weaponry that they couldn't afford otherwise, and immense graft at higher levels. An Americanised military style without American style battlefield intelligence and command doesn't work very well.
I had very naively assumed they weren't going to make that incredibly obvious mistake but it seems I was wrong.
If I wrote conspiracy theory novels I would plot this out as a way to get hi-tec gear into the hands of the Taliban as the Afghan forces dissolve.
What kind of gear does the new Taliban army now find itself in possession of?
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
The military industrial complex that demands these forever wars is all about the almighty dollar. All this "nation building" is just an excuse for getting suitably bribed congressmen to vote for huge blank checks for their equipment. Same reason why the Israel-Palestine conflict will never end.
88bn is a lorra money. When what the Afghan army needed was AK-47s and Hiluxes, which they know how to use and maintain.
And more importantly a vested interest in the government surviving.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
IF UK and US troops are in full control of the airport, looking optimistically, they could still get them off there.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
It’s not that hard. The USA is a party to The Hague Service Convention whose website says (with respect to England and Wales) the method that tends to be used by the Senior Master is “Personal service on individuals & postal service on registered offices on companies. If this fails by first class post.”. I think the Senior Master would probably accept service by post after a couple of attempts.
Risky, he has a clear majority with the NDP to get things through.
As May found out in 2017 voters do not like unnecessary elections
But he doesn't. They are a minority government without an agreement with the NDP or anyone else.
The NDP back the Liberals on confidence votes and have provided support on Covid legislation amongst much else.
It is perfectly possible rather than getting a Liberal majority he fails to even get enough seats to govern with the NDP especially if the Conservatives and BQ have a good campaign
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Better start to international relations, which is quite probably being lubricated by Pakistan and Turkey at this moment, and not being bombed.
Personally I think Newcastle should have been kicked out of the PL for not fulfilling this requirement.
I'm not sure how having away fans in the upper tier can ever be described as the safe option.
Agree, had punches thrown at me and others at Sid James Park back in May 2019.
Not limited to PL - here are the Ajax fans at a Champions League match in Lisbon
Must be a very small issue.
Any advice on how to add photos to a post directly using an iPad? Upgrading to the latest pro 11” version with a 5G sim this week, so would appreciate hints.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Not getting the shit bombed out of them for the next two months.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
Well I will take up that baton.
Why is the west rich? I would argue that a massive contibutory factor is the scientific method. We are so immersed in this being the 'correct' way of thinking that we hardly notice it - but it is far from the only way of approaching the world, as the medievalists which dominate across parts of the Islamic world and other parts of the third world show. Now, arguably this particular philosophical approach came from the thinking of the ancient Greeks. So it is a western invention. But there is no reason why this approach should be unique to the west.1000 years ago, of course, the west was mired in superstition while the Islamic world led in use of the scientific method. But I don't think it would be too controversial to say much of the Islamic world today is not exactly hot on the Socratic/Cartesian approaches to critical analysis.
The West is certainly more advanced in many ways than most of the Rest and there are lots of reasons why this is so. But when it comes to "logical thinking", is this an attribute that one finds more in Westerners than Resterners to any significant degree? I wouldn't have thought so, is my first reaction, but I really don't know. Perhaps it is the case. It might be, I suppose. I was hoping fruity leon might have a steer to a good study on it but my enquiry only brought forth a "tedious woke twit" retort. Maybe you can ask him?
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Im still not sold on that. I just dont know if the Taliban will go for the airport. Gunfire at the airport could be Taliban harassment fire, it could be some desperate or angry locals. There is no clear picture of whether its small arms or mortars or rockets. I'd assume if its the latter we'd have known but at this point its clear that if the Taliban drove the several miles up the road and just started lobbing shit over the fence they could do so right now. The lack of clear official statements from the US is worrying, either its chaotic or they dont want to talk for operational or PR reasons. What we do know is not all US citizens are at the airport and an unknown number are still in the city.
The British have their diplomatic mission out, I think they left last night. Its remarkably unclear how many British troops are there (my undestanding, possibly incorrect, as of yesterday was that it was fraction of the 650 announced) but the RAF have flown in and out about 7 or 8 times over the last 72 hours.
Its also to be noted that a lot of visuals from the airport are on the civil side of the grounds. This place is not Heathrow but it does have two distinct sides.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Better start to international relations, lubricated by Pakistan and Turkey, not being bombed.
On the other hand you’ve seen 20 years of your Taliban mates killed by an invading force. You’d have to hope revenge doesn’t come in to it I’d guess
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
1. Forcing an armed confrontation would result in a very large number of avoidable casualties to their own side 2. They've expressed an interest in maintaining international humanitarian aid, which would be withdrawn if they won't play nice with the foreigners (their own people they can basically avenge themselves upon as they wish)
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Not getting the shit bombed out of them for the next two months.
Being cynical, now is probably a good time to invest in UAV manufacturers…
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
IF UK and US troops are in full control of the airport, looking optimistically, they could still get them off there.
A transporter plane just took off and there is another one on the ground. I would guess that as long as the runway isn't blown up, the people there will get out. But the taliban could call a halt to the operation at any time.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Not getting the shit bombed out of them for the next two months.
Being cynical, now is probably a good time to invest in UAV manufacturers…
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
To be fair, since Chamberlain was the Conservative PM at the time, I suspect you above all others would have been cheering him on.
There's an interesting take on Chamberlain by Alec Douglas-Home, who was Chamberlain's PPS and with him when Munich was 'agreed'. Chamberlain basically said this to Home: 'I know Hitler's going to renege on this, bit if I make a big deal out of it - i.e. wave it around on the tarmac and say "Peace in our time" - then when he does everyone will know what an absolute shit he is and it might even bring in the yanks.' If true, then it puts Chamberlain in a very different light - he was prepared to destroy his own reputation for the greater good.
Robert Harris's Munich is very interesting on this.
Yes, I know it's fiction but it does paint a relatively sympathetic picture of Chamerlain, who probably knew war was inevitable but saw the sense in buying time to build Britain's military capability.
There is a degree of truth in that. Britain was rearming to be ready to fight a long, in-depth war. In 1942.
4000 of the B.1/39 Standard Bombers, the interim Spitfire and Hurricanes replaced with 400mph fighters, tanks with 17lbr guns, RN with piles of new aircraft carriers - and battleships...
This was because this was when Germany's military build up was due to complete then.
Hitler kept of playing the roulette table and got his war 2-3 years early.
Interestingly, if it had been anyone else but Hitler, they would have backed off because of this. The contemporary accounts in the German high command are clear - all the generals and senior Nazis wanted a peace - to finish the build up. Only Hitler wanted war - or rather was not prepared to sacrifice anything at all to stop it.
The German economic situation forced him to go early; see Tooze’s acclaimed book on the subject.
Personally I think Newcastle should have been kicked out of the PL for not fulfilling this requirement.
I'm not sure how having away fans in the upper tier can ever be described as the safe option.
Agree, had punches thrown at me and others at Sid James Park back in May 2019.
Not limited to PL - here are the Ajax fans at a Champions League match in Lisbon
Must be a very small issue.
Any advice on how to add photos to a post directly using an iPad? Upgrading to the latest pro 11” version with a 5G sim this week, so would appreciate hints.
No, sorry. I can't see what you're doing wrong except choosing a very, very small image.
The image provided by the link embedded in your img tag is 10x7 pixels according to Safari. You need to find a higher resolution image.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
IF UK and US troops are in full control of the airport, looking optimistically, they could still get them off there.
A transporter plane just took off and there is another one on the ground. I would guess that as long as the runway isn't blown up, the people there will get out. But the taliban could call a halt to the operation at any time.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Better start to international relations, lubricated by Pakistan and Turkey, not being bombed.
On the other hand you’ve seen 20 years of your Taliban mates killed by an invading force. You’d have to hope revenge doesn’t come in to it I’d guess
So many of the pictures of the Taliban forces look so young. I doubt many of them remember the 1990s or 2000s.
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
We will need to wait for whatever kind of reports come out of this disaster but it looks in part that the US built a shell of an Afghan army that could only operate with the support of the US.
And I don't think it was done deliberately, I think this was a huge decade and a half long fuck up of bad communication, wilful blindness and incentives.
Like the ARVN in South Vietnam, the Afghan security forces were equipped for an American style high tech war, with weaponry that they couldn't afford otherwise, and immense graft at higher levels. An Americanised military style without American style battlefield intelligence and command doesn't work very well.
I had very naively assumed they weren't going to make that incredibly obvious mistake but it seems I was wrong.
If I wrote conspiracy theory novels I would plot this out as a way to get hi-tec gear into the hands of the Taliban as the Afghan forces dissolve.
What kind of gear does the new Taliban army now find itself in possession of?
Probably not much that it will want. Loads of Humvees that do 4 mpg on a good day, in a country where all fuel is imported. Reconnaissance drones, etc.
They are likely to stick to mopeds and pickup trucks, after all that is what they won with.
That seems odd. "Here, we're off, you can have the country if you're that keen - oh, but we won't recognise you." Do we plan to host a rival government in exile?
It seems a hell of a long time ago now, but I remember Karzai giving a speech at the Labour conference after we'd intervened to help him in. He gave an example of his cousin (IIRC) who had lost his entire family to a Western air raid dropping bombs on the wrong house, but said that the cousin felt it was absolutely all right, since it was a noble cause. I was sitting next to an Iraqi trade union delegate, also very pro-intervention, who said wryly, in perfect English, "That fellow's going a bit far even for me - I don't think it will end well."
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Have you been to Afghanistan, and if so when?
No, never been. Would love to (in a parallel universe). I have a couple of friends who served there in the SAS etc and they say it is a strikingly beautiful, fascinating country, for all its flaws and problems
It’s not that hard. The USA is a party to The Hague Service Convention whose website says (with respect to England and Wales) the method that tends to be used by the Senior Master is “Personal service on individuals & postal service on registered offices on companies. If this fails by first class post.”. I think the Senior Master would probably accept service by post after a couple of attempts.
I think they want personal service for the photo op.
I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
IF UK and US troops are in full control of the airport, looking optimistically, they could still get them off there.
A transporter plane just took off and there is another one on the ground. I would guess that as long as the runway isn't blown up, the people there will get out. But the taliban could call a halt to the operation at any time.
My suspicion, as mentioned earlier, and although there's no concrete information out there as yet to support it, is that Turkey, Pakistan, and possibly even China, in the bargain, are something to do with why it's continuing.
That seems odd. "Here, we're off, you can have the country if you're that keen - oh, but we won't recognise you." Do we plan to host a rival government in exile?
It seems a hell of a long time ago now, but I remember Karzai giving a speech at the Labour conference after we'd intervened to help him in. He gave an example of his cousin (IIRC) who had lost his entire family to a Western air raid dropping bombs on the wrong house, but said that the cousin felt it was absolutely all right, since it was a noble cause. I was sitting next to an Iraqi trade union delegate, also very pro-intervention, who said wryly, in perfect English, "That fellow's going a bit far even for me - I don't think it will end well."
Yes, Biden effectively handed over Afghanistan to the Taliban and refuses to even accept the consequences of his incompetence
And what action do you want, as I would be amazed if you and @HYUFD were on the same page on this
MPs wanted a recall of Parliament. The implication from the Tweet above is that they expected something decisive and are currently venting their frustration that BoZo is going to flunk it.
And if it is military intervention than for once I will be proud of Boris if he says no
In 1939 we declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Should we not have done that?
In 1938 it seems BigG would have been cheering on Neville Chamberlain as he proclaimed 'peace in our time' after the Munich Agreement
To be fair, since Chamberlain was the Conservative PM at the time, I suspect you above all others would have been cheering him on.
There's an interesting take on Chamberlain by Alec Douglas-Home, who was Chamberlain's PPS and with him when Munich was 'agreed'. Chamberlain basically said this to Home: 'I know Hitler's going to renege on this, bit if I make a big deal out of it - i.e. wave it around on the tarmac and say "Peace in our time" - then when he does everyone will know what an absolute shit he is and it might even bring in the yanks.' If true, then it puts Chamberlain in a very different light - he was prepared to destroy his own reputation for the greater good.
Robert Harris's Munich is very interesting on this.
Yes, I know it's fiction but it does paint a relatively sympathetic picture of Chamerlain, who probably knew war was inevitable but saw the sense in buying time to build Britain's military capability.
There is a degree of truth in that. Britain was rearming to be ready to fight a long, in-depth war. In 1942.
4000 of the B.1/39 Standard Bombers, the interim Spitfire and Hurricanes replaced with 400mph fighters, tanks with 17lbr guns, RN with piles of new aircraft carriers - and battleships...
This was because this was when Germany's military build up was due to complete then.
Hitler kept of playing the roulette table and got his war 2-3 years early.
Interestingly, if it had been anyone else but Hitler, they would have backed off because of this. The contemporary accounts in the German high command are clear - all the generals and senior Nazis wanted a peace - to finish the build up. Only Hitler wanted war - or rather was not prepared to sacrifice anything at all to stop it.
The German economic situation forced him to go early; see Tooze’s acclaimed book on the subject.
Yes, that's been argued. That would be the rational explanation.
Those around him, thought he had acquired Victory Disease in the Japanese style - whatever he did, he won. So he kept on piling on the risks. So when Schacht quit in '37, he simply thought that something would turn up....
What is truly crazy is that he won the rematch of WWI by mid 1940. It's been war gamed and he was basically rolling 6s all the way.....
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Im still not sold on that. I just dont know if the Taliban will go for the airport. Gunfire at the airport could be Taliban harassment fire, it could be some desperate or angry locals. There is no clear picture of whether its small arms or mortars or rockets. I'd assume if its the latter we'd have known but at this point its clear that if the Taliban drove the several miles up the road and just started lobbing shit over the fence they could do so right now. The lack of clear official statements from the US is worrying, either its chaotic or they dont want to talk for operational or PR reasons. What we do know is not all US citizens are at the airport and an unknown number are still in the city.
The British have their diplomatic mission out, I think they left last night. Its remarkably unclear how many British troops are there (my undestanding, possibly incorrect, as of yesterday was that it was fraction of the 650 announced) but the RAF have flown in and out about 7 or 8 times over the last 72 hours.
Its also to be noted that a lot of visuals from the airport are on the civil side of the grounds. This place is not Heathrow but it does have two distinct sides.
Bruno Macaes on Twitter is punting the theory that the USG has offered the Taliban enormous sums of cash just to let the evac complete
Which must be nice for the US taxpayer to know, if true
Risky, he has a clear majority with the NDP to get things through.
As May found out in 2017 voters do not like unnecessary elections
But he doesn't. They are a minority government without an agreement with the NDP or anyone else.
The NDP back the Liberals on confidence votes and have provided support on Covid legislation amongst much else.
It is perfectly possible rather than getting a Liberal majority he fails to even get enough seats to govern with the NDP especially if the Conservatives and BQ have a good campaign
By tradition the leader of the Party with most seats becomes PM. There is no tradition of coalition or formal agreement. Minority government is very normal. He has not, nor never will, unless there is a huge break with tradition "govern with the NDP". Particularly as the LPC are ideologically closer to the Tories anyway. On tax and spend, foreign affairs and fossil fuels based energy policy. Trudeau is no lefty.
Personally I think Newcastle should have been kicked out of the PL for not fulfilling this requirement.
I'm not sure how having away fans in the upper tier can ever be described as the safe option.
Agree, had punches thrown at me and others at Sid James Park back in May 2019.
Not limited to PL - here are the Ajax fans at a Champions League match in Lisbon
Must be a very small issue.
Any advice on how to add photos to a post directly using an iPad? Upgrading to the latest pro 11” version with a 5G sim this week, so would appreciate hints.
You can't upload pictures here directly. Upload them to a service like imagur and then you can add an html link to the image in your post. Imugr even given you the link to copy.
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
We will need to wait for whatever kind of reports come out of this disaster but it looks in part that the US built a shell of an Afghan army that could only operate with the support of the US.
And I don't think it was done deliberately, I think this was a huge decade and a half long fuck up of bad communication, wilful blindness and incentives.
Like the ARVN in South Vietnam, the Afghan security forces were equipped for an American style high tech war, with weaponry that they couldn't afford otherwise, and immense graft at higher levels. An Americanised military style without American style battlefield intelligence and command doesn't work very well.
I had very naively assumed they weren't going to make that incredibly obvious mistake but it seems I was wrong.
If I wrote conspiracy theory novels I would plot this out as a way to get hi-tec gear into the hands of the Taliban as the Afghan forces dissolve.
What kind of gear does the new Taliban army now find itself in possession of?
Probably not much that it will want. Loads of Humvees that do 4 mpg on a good day, in a country where all fuel is imported. Reconnaissance drones, etc.
They are likely to stick to mopeds and pickup trucks, after all that is what they won with.
That seems odd. "Here, we're off, you can have the country if you're that keen - oh, but we won't recognise you." Do we plan to host a rival government in exile?
It seems a hell of a long time ago now, but I remember Karzai giving a speech at the Labour conference after we'd intervened to help him in. He gave an example of his cousin (IIRC) who had lost his entire family to a Western air raid dropping bombs on the wrong house, but said that the cousin felt it was absolutely all right, since it was a noble cause. I was sitting next to an Iraqi trade union delegate, also very pro-intervention, who said wryly, in perfect English, "That fellow's going a bit far even for me - I don't think it will end well."
Interesting factoid:
Longest-serving Government-in-Exile are the Belarusian Democratic Republic, since 1918!
NEW: Statement on Afghanistan from President Trump: “What Joe Biden has done in Afghanistan is legendary. It will go down as one of the greatest defeats in American history!”
Of course, Biden was implementing the plan Trump signed...
"The US aid spending watchdog for Afghanistan warned last month that the US military had little or no means of knowing the capability of the Afghan National Defense and Security forces (ANDSF) when required to operate independently of the US forces, despite spending $88.3bn on security-related reconstruction in Afghanistan up to March 2021.
...
The watchdog had, it said, repeatedly warned about “the corrosive effects of corruption” within the force. With its reliance on advanced equipment, and with widespread illiteracy in its ranks, the force could not reliably maintain its strength and combat readiness."
Even the bloody audit committee could tell.
We will need to wait for whatever kind of reports come out of this disaster but it looks in part that the US built a shell of an Afghan army that could only operate with the support of the US.
And I don't think it was done deliberately, I think this was a huge decade and a half long fuck up of bad communication, wilful blindness and incentives.
Like the ARVN in South Vietnam, the Afghan security forces were equipped for an American style high tech war, with weaponry that they couldn't afford otherwise, and immense graft at higher levels. An Americanised military style without American style battlefield intelligence and command doesn't work very well.
I had very naively assumed they weren't going to make that incredibly obvious mistake but it seems I was wrong.
If I wrote conspiracy theory novels I would plot this out as a way to get hi-tec gear into the hands of the Taliban as the Afghan forces dissolve.
What kind of gear does the new Taliban army now find itself in possession of?
Nothing that fiesty. They are going to get a lot of good trucks though.
The issue with the rest of the gear they get is no expertise or access to spare parts to maintain them. Sure getting a couple of dozen super Turcano ground attack planes is sweet but Brazil sure as shit aren't going to train up technicians for them and the Taliban had already been targeting pilots and ground staff in the Afghan Airforce for months.
As many US police departments found when they got cast of military gear military spec equipments require specialised fuel, grease, tools etc.
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Im still not sold on that. I just dont know if the Taliban will go for the airport. Gunfire at the airport could be Taliban harassment fire, it could be some desperate or angry locals. There is no clear picture of whether its small arms or mortars or rockets. I'd assume if its the latter we'd have known but at this point its clear that if the Taliban drove the several miles up the road and just started lobbing shit over the fence they could do so right now. The lack of clear official statements from the US is worrying, either its chaotic or they dont want to talk for operational or PR reasons. What we do know is not all US citizens are at the airport and an unknown number are still in the city.
The British have their diplomatic mission out, I think they left last night. Its remarkably unclear how many British troops are there (my undestanding, possibly incorrect, as of yesterday was that it was fraction of the 650 announced) but the RAF have flown in and out about 7 or 8 times over the last 72 hours.
Its also to be noted that a lot of visuals from the airport are on the civil side of the grounds. This place is not Heathrow but it does have two distinct sides.
Bruno Macaes on Twitter is punting the theory that the USG has offered the Taliban enormous sums of cash just to let the evac complete
Which must be nice for the US taxpayer to know, if true
20 years of tragedy ends in farcical bribery
No, I just think things are pretty chaotic on the Taliban side too. They do not have sophisticated command and control. They are more interested in securing the city than the airport, and the scuttle is something that plays well for them in propaganda, at home and abroad.
Risky, he has a clear majority with the NDP to get things through.
As May found out in 2017 voters do not like unnecessary elections
But he doesn't. They are a minority government without an agreement with the NDP or anyone else.
The NDP back the Liberals on confidence votes and have provided support on Covid legislation amongst much else.
It is perfectly possible rather than getting a Liberal majority he fails to even get enough seats to govern with the NDP especially if the Conservatives and BQ have a good campaign
By tradition the leader of the Party with most seats becomes PM. There is no tradition of coalition or formal agreement. Minority government is very normal. He has not, nor never will, unless there is a huge break with tradition "govern with the NDP". Particularly as the LPC are ideologically closer to the Tories anyway. On tax and spend, foreign affairs and fossil fuels based energy policy. Trudeau is no lefty.
No they aren't. The Liberals are socially liberal, the Conservatives more socially conservative. The Liberals most recent budget included a tax on online sales and luxury goods.
On foreign affairs the Liberals opposed the Iraq War at the time unlike Harper's Conservatives.
The Liberals favour an open door immigration policy unlike the Conservatives.
On climate change the Liberals are committed to net zero and Trudeau introduced a carbon tax.
The NDP are left of the Liberals but Trudeau needs them to get things through against Conservative opposition
NEW: Statement on Afghanistan from President Trump: “What Joe Biden has done in Afghanistan is legendary. It will go down as one of the greatest defeats in American history!”
Of course, Biden was implementing the plan Trump signed...
Dream come true for Trump - he got credit for saying withdraw, since the US public are sick and tired of Afghanistan, and he can posture that if he was running the show it would have gone just fine.
Personally I think Newcastle should have been kicked out of the PL for not fulfilling this requirement.
I'm not sure how having away fans in the upper tier can ever be described as the safe option.
Agree, had punches thrown at me and others at Sid James Park back in May 2019.
Not limited to PL - here are the Ajax fans at a Champions League match in Lisbon
Must be a very small issue.
Any advice on how to add photos to a post directly using an iPad? Upgrading to the latest pro 11” version with a 5G sim this week, so would appreciate hints.
1. Save the image to Photos 2. Upload the image to imgur.com 3. Post the image and copy the link 4. insert the image link using the "Insert an Image" icon in the vanilla menu bar.
Does anyone think Biden might consider his position as US president over this debacle?
Only if the Taliban elect to attack the airport and succeed in massacring the allied ground force, or a substantial fraction thereof. I think that unlikely (though, being that I'm making half-educated assumptions from the safety of an armchair three-an-a-half thousand miles away, what the Hell do I know?)
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Im still not sold on that. I just dont know if the Taliban will go for the airport. Gunfire at the airport could be Taliban harassment fire, it could be some desperate or angry locals. There is no clear picture of whether its small arms or mortars or rockets. I'd assume if its the latter we'd have known but at this point its clear that if the Taliban drove the several miles up the road and just started lobbing shit over the fence they could do so right now. The lack of clear official statements from the US is worrying, either its chaotic or they dont want to talk for operational or PR reasons. What we do know is not all US citizens are at the airport and an unknown number are still in the city.
The British have their diplomatic mission out, I think they left last night. Its remarkably unclear how many British troops are there (my undestanding, possibly incorrect, as of yesterday was that it was fraction of the 650 announced) but the RAF have flown in and out about 7 or 8 times over the last 72 hours.
Its also to be noted that a lot of visuals from the airport are on the civil side of the grounds. This place is not Heathrow but it does have two distinct sides.
Bruno Macaes on Twitter is punting the theory that the USG has offered the Taliban enormous sums of cash just to let the evac complete
Which must be nice for the US taxpayer to know, if true
20 years of tragedy ends in farcical bribery
I think the White House knows its in trouble right now. Its keeping its collective head down. As for cash for inaction, not so sure thats a runner. Not impossible and truth be told the Biden administration couldnt be anything but worried, however, there are good pragmatic reasons for the Taliban not to intervene without any inducement required., There are though some good optics reasons for them to do so. If they did try some kind of effective siege and by default an indirect hostage situation, the US has few tools to break it other than negotiation and handing some serious concessions.
That seems odd. "Here, we're off, you can have the country if you're that keen - oh, but we won't recognise you." Do we plan to host a rival government in exile?
We don't 'recognise' others who are most definitely in control of various countries, as do other governments, so it isn't that odd. Presumably it just hinders ability to do business with the actual controllers, but prospects there were likely limited in any case.
NEW: Statement on Afghanistan from President Trump: “What Joe Biden has done in Afghanistan is legendary. It will go down as one of the greatest defeats in American history!”
Of course, Biden was implementing the plan Trump signed...
Dream come true for Trump - he got credit for saying withdraw, since the US public are sick and tired of Afghanistan, and he can posture that if he was running the show it would have gone just fine.
Biden and Harris look weak tonight and Trump obviously smells blood for 2024, hard not to see him running again now
Comments
https://twitter.com/RealC0rnP0p/status/1426986118898089985/photo/1
NYTimes
Given that diversity is our strength, the Taliban must be extremely diverse.
9:24 pm · 15 Aug 2021"
https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin
Canadians will vote on 20 September, some two years ahead of schedule.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58209031
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
"In Bitter Lake, a documentary by the filmmaker Adam Curtis, a short clip illustrates how this this cultural mission was conducted. The footage shows Afghan men and women in a darkened seminar room, sitting in the dim light given off by a projected image of Marcel Duchamp’s celebrated urinal, listening to a lecture given by a young English woman with a faint Roedean-like accent on the work’s significance.
When the lecturer says she does not expect the females in the audience to recognise the object in question, the camera pans away from her to show their reaction. Glancing nervously at one another, the women seem baffled; one shakes her head incredulously. Most of those present seem perplexed not so much as to the function of the object as by the purpose of the lecture. Unfazed, the lecturer assures the audience that the work was a revolutionary act. In later footage, she goes on to assert that Duchamp’s aim was to “fight against the system”."
"The departure hall turned into chaos after people said boarding passes were being printed secretly for officials and high-profile people who showed up at the airport.
I saw three former MPs, a few deputy ministers and some celebrities queuing up. Some didn’t even have a booking. We waited for almost eight hours, until airport staff started leaving their desks - first the check-in counters and then the migration and passport desks… different rumours created chaos. Some escaped from the airport and some rushed towards the gates.
No-one was in any of the passport check cabins and the QR scan doors were destroyed. There wasn’t a security check before getting to the gates.
We walked through and saw that the big glass doors between the gates and the airplanes were shattered. People ran towards the last plane (it seems the first plane, which was ours, was filled by officials and took off) and there was a second flight which people started to board.
It was almost a stampede.
We walked back and saw many hopeful passengers just sitting under the airplane near the runway. People were shocked and didn’t know what to do, running from one plane to the other.
We then walked towards the exit to get in the car. Armed men in plain clothes were guarding the airport.
People were very desperate, some were running towards the airport, some were escaping. In order to stop people from getting into the airport, the guards opened fire into the air.
When I was getting out, there was a guy shooting in the air. A few minutes away on the airport’s road, I saw several police vehicles left alone on the road with doors open.
I can still hear sporadic gunshots and helicopters."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-58219963
As May found out in 2017 voters do not like unnecessary elections
The Iranian government has imposed a six-day lockdown amid a current uptick of coronavirus cases, The Associated Press reported.
"Top US general says terror groups could reconstitute in Afghanistan sooner than expected"
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/15/politics/mark-milley-afghanistan-terror-groups/index.html
Yes, I know it's fiction but it does paint a relatively sympathetic picture of Chamerlain, who probably knew war was inevitable but saw the sense in buying time to build Britain's military capability.
Prince Andrew will be served court papers in person, the lawyer for his sexual assault accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre has said.
The 61-year-old will be given them in Britain in a “difficult” feat that could take weeks, the American's legal team claimed.
https://www.the-sun.com/lifestyle/3466496/royal-family-news-prince-andrew-latest-court-virginia-giuffre/amp/
Helen Miller
@MsHelicat
·
1m
Monday's TELEGRAPH: The West flees as Kabul falls to Taliban
#TomorrowsPapersToday
I presume the Taliban are anti-vax?
If I wrote conspiracy theory novels I would plot this out as a way to get hi-tec gear into the hands of the Taliban as the Afghan forces dissolve.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/may/09/highereducation.humanities
4000 of the B.1/39 Standard Bombers, the interim Spitfire and Hurricanes replaced with 400mph fighters, tanks with 17lbr guns, RN with piles of new aircraft carriers - and battleships...
This was because this was when Germany's military build up was due to complete then.
Hitler kept of playing the roulette table and got his war 2-3 years early.
Interestingly, if it had been anyone else but Hitler, they would have backed off because of this. The contemporary accounts in the German high command are clear - all the generals and senior Nazis wanted a peace - to finish the build up. Only Hitler wanted war - or rather was not prepared to sacrifice anything at all to stop it.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
All the people who are there may just get out.
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
It is perfectly possible rather than getting a Liberal majority he fails to even get enough seats to govern with the NDP especially if the Conservatives and BQ have a good campaign
So quite a gamble by Justin.
However, it is his election to lose.
The British have their diplomatic mission out, I think they left last night. Its remarkably unclear how many British troops are there (my undestanding, possibly incorrect, as of yesterday was that it was fraction of the 650 announced) but the RAF have flown in and out about 7 or 8 times over the last 72 hours.
Its also to be noted that a lot of visuals from the airport are on the civil side of the grounds. This place is not Heathrow but it does have two distinct sides.
2. They've expressed an interest in maintaining international humanitarian aid, which would be withdrawn if they won't play nice with the foreigners (their own people they can basically avenge themselves upon as they wish)
A transporter plane just took off and there is another one on the ground. I would guess that as long as the runway isn't blown up, the people there will get out. But the taliban could call a halt to the operation at any time.
https://twitter.com/sb_qureshii/status/1427013429689192452?s=20
I don't think I've ever seen mass blind human panic like this
The image provided by the link embedded in your img tag is 10x7 pixels according to Safari. You need to find a higher resolution image.
https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/ah/i8wnh77o03a2.jpeg
They are likely to stick to mopeds and pickup trucks, after all that is what they won with.
It seems a hell of a long time ago now, but I remember Karzai giving a speech at the Labour conference after we'd intervened to help him in. He gave an example of his cousin (IIRC) who had lost his entire family to a Western air raid dropping bombs on the wrong house, but said that the cousin felt it was absolutely all right, since it was a noble cause. I was sitting next to an Iraqi trade union delegate, also very pro-intervention, who said wryly, in perfect English, "That fellow's going a bit far even for me - I don't think it will end well."
Those around him, thought he had acquired Victory Disease in the Japanese style - whatever he did, he won. So he kept on piling on the risks. So when Schacht quit in '37, he simply thought that something would turn up....
What is truly crazy is that he won the rematch of WWI by mid 1940. It's been war gamed and he was basically rolling 6s all the way.....
Which must be nice for the US taxpayer to know, if true
20 years of tragedy ends in farcical bribery
Minority government is very normal.
He has not, nor never will, unless there is a huge break with tradition "govern with the NDP".
Particularly as the LPC are ideologically closer to the Tories anyway. On tax and spend, foreign affairs and fossil fuels based energy policy.
Trudeau is no lefty.
I certainly hope it's not a futile gesture to show solidarity with the Americans.
Longest-serving Government-in-Exile are the Belarusian Democratic Republic, since 1918!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rada_of_the_Belarusian_Democratic_Republic
Of course, Biden was implementing the plan Trump signed...
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1427016782565498883?s=20
"There's absolutely NO comparison between the fall of #Saigon and the fall of #Kabul.
In 1975 they evacuated the American Embassy using a Sikorsky CH-53.
In 2021 they used a Sikorsky Blackhawk UH-60.
That's a totally different kind of helicopter.
There's really no comparison."
https://twitter.com/Joelmpetlin/status/1427015031422603265?s=20
The issue with the rest of the gear they get is no expertise or access to spare parts to maintain them. Sure getting a couple of dozen super Turcano ground attack planes is sweet but Brazil sure as shit aren't going to train up technicians for them and the Taliban had already been targeting pilots and ground staff in the Afghan Airforce for months.
As many US police departments found when they got cast of military gear military spec equipments require specialised fuel, grease, tools etc.
On foreign affairs the Liberals opposed the Iraq War at the time unlike Harper's Conservatives.
The Liberals favour an open door immigration policy unlike the Conservatives.
On climate change the Liberals are committed to net zero and Trudeau introduced a carbon tax.
The NDP are left of the Liberals but Trudeau needs them to get things through against Conservative opposition
2. Upload the image to imgur.com
3. Post the image and copy the link
4. insert the image link using the "Insert an Image" icon in the vanilla menu bar.