I don’t want to sound all Leon, but the airport situation in Kabul doesn’t look all that great.
Looks like planes cannot leave - Afghan citizens on the runway. US taken over air traffic control with UK help.
Another theory about the airport chaos
"It appears the Taliban has used gunfire to herd thousands of desperate and frightened civilians onto the Kabul Airport runway and tarmac. No planes are able to take off or land. US and UK troops are also there.
A potential death trap which could quickly become a prison"
Very clever if so
Next 48 hours crucial according to UK - hmm..
I’m trying to figure out what the incentive is for the Taliban to let them evacuate.
Better start to international relations, lubricated by Pakistan and Turkey, not being bombed.
On the other hand you’ve seen 20 years of your Taliban mates killed by an invading force. You’d have to hope revenge doesn’t come in to it I’d guess
So many of the pictures of the Taliban forces look so young. I doubt many of them remember the 1990s or 2000s.
Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel
Dumb question: Is there just the one airport in Kabul, namely the Hamid Karzai International Airport?
when it comes to big aircraft yes.
So all 'Germany, France, Spain all sending aircraft to evacuate personnel' might not have an airport to land at soon.
Im still not sold on that. I just dont know if the Taliban will go for the airport. Gunfire at the airport could be Taliban harassment fire, it could be some desperate or angry locals. There is no clear picture of whether its small arms or mortars or rockets. I'd assume if its the latter we'd have known but at this point its clear that if the Taliban drove the several miles up the road and just started lobbing shit over the fence they could do so right now. The lack of clear official statements from the US is worrying, either its chaotic or they dont want to talk for operational or PR reasons. What we do know is not all US citizens are at the airport and an unknown number are still in the city.
The British have their diplomatic mission out, I think they left last night. Its remarkably unclear how many British troops are there (my undestanding, possibly incorrect, as of yesterday was that it was fraction of the 650 announced) but the RAF have flown in and out about 7 or 8 times over the last 72 hours.
Its also to be noted that a lot of visuals from the airport are on the civil side of the grounds. This place is not Heathrow but it does have two distinct sides.
Bruno Macaes on Twitter is punting the theory that the USG has offered the Taliban enormous sums of cash just to let the evac complete
Which must be nice for the US taxpayer to know, if true
20 years of tragedy ends in farcical bribery
No, I just think things are pretty chaotic on the Taliban side too. They do not have sophisticated command and control. They are more interested in securing the city than the airport, and the scuttle is something that plays well for them in propaganda, at home and abroad.
Hmmm
They are sophisticated enough to overrun an entire country, and defeat an army four times the size (backed by a superpower) in a matter of weeks. To the total surprise of "the greatest intelligence agencies in the world"
I don't buy this idea they are chaotic and unsophisticated. They have been honed by 30 Darwinian years of fighting, maybe centuries, into a formidable force with excellent command of tactics AND strategy
What they are is factionalised, however. There are pragmatists who just want to run a very Islamic Afghanistan, there are ideologues who want to export terror and hurt America anyway they can. The nutters might be the ones who mortar the airport, escalating the fight
And it is perfectly credible: the idea that Biden would pay off the Talibs to get the evacuation to work. He's a bit sleepy. but he knows that if this fucks up and thousands die, he will not be re-elected. That's gotta be worth a couple of billion
I'm not saying it is true, just that it is plausible
Not that there's an appetite to go back in, as it were, but if they have their eyes on the long game the Taliban would be very dumb to not keep a grip on any such groups in their territory. There's dozens of horrible regimes out there, and many many dozens more crappy ones, the world doesn't have the energy or will to give a shit unless the stars align or you do something egregious to the major players.
Well someone has got to leave next, and as this is a betting site, odds as to who that might be seems a more than relevant point for discussion.
Not right now.. Dickson used to post lots of pointless betting odds. Boris is going nowhere.. who his successor is irrelevant right now.
Huh? This is (supposedly) a political betting blog. I’m fascinated by your proposition that some political betting odds are “pointless”. Please show your workings.
According to the markets, there is actually a percentage of the punting public who do think that Johnson is going. That’s the fun! Put your money where your mouth is.
D+
All the ones you used to.post at 6 am whom few if anyone was interested in and you got banned for iirc I seem remember that you flooded the site with crap.
Huh? New one on me.
I’ve been banned for being rude to Mark Senior, for allegedly having a fake email address (untrue: it’s the one I’m still using right now 15 years later, and Robert Smithson recently contacted me on), for posting Scottish sub-samples, for sticking up for my bullied colleague James Kelly, and just generally for being an annoying Jock, but I cannot recall ever being banned for posting odds. On a betting blog that would be truly bizarre.
A few more betting tips on this blog wouldn't go amiss. Indeed I like @Quincel Saturday mornings slot for this very reason.
Possibly Raab next out in view of the weekends events in Central Asia?
25/1 with WH, 16/1 on Wallace. Someone needs to carry the can for this intelligence failure.
Surely if anybody's going to carry the can for an intelligence failure Gavin Williamson would have to be the favourite?
The thing is that resignation requires a sense of honour, and sacking requires some backbone from the PM. Both are rare phenomena in the Tory Cabinet.
I am on Raab and Wallace for half the price of a pint.
Well if it's a London table service pint that's quite a chunky bet.
Current projections see the LPC on 168 seats with 170 needed for a majority. So quite a gamble by Justin. However, it is his election to lose.
If he increases the number of Liberal seats but they still fall short of a majority, will that be regarded as a success?
No. And yes. The point is to win a majority with a poorer Opposition leader than last time, and a divided Tory Party. And on a vaccine bounce. However, another win, even as a minority, won't be seen as a failure. Third term you see.
Comments
They are sophisticated enough to overrun an entire country, and defeat an army four times the size (backed by a superpower) in a matter of weeks. To the total surprise of "the greatest intelligence agencies in the world"
I don't buy this idea they are chaotic and unsophisticated. They have been honed by 30 Darwinian years of fighting, maybe centuries, into a formidable force with excellent command of tactics AND strategy
What they are is factionalised, however. There are pragmatists who just want to run a very Islamic Afghanistan, there are ideologues who want to export terror and hurt America anyway they can. The nutters might be the ones who mortar the airport, escalating the fight
And it is perfectly credible: the idea that Biden would pay off the Talibs to get the evacuation to work. He's a bit sleepy. but he knows that if this fucks up and thousands die, he will not be re-elected. That's gotta be worth a couple of billion
I'm not saying it is true, just that it is plausible
The Alba Party leader was spotted at the rooftop Polo Lounge at the Dorchester Hotel on Park Lane, where a basket of bread costs £16 and a steak £135.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19514892.alex-salmond-spotted-restaurant-rich-people-paying-ludicrous-prices/
And yes.
The point is to win a majority with a poorer Opposition leader than last time, and a divided Tory Party. And on a vaccine bounce.
However, another win, even as a minority, won't be seen as a failure. Third term you see.