What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.
Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.
“He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.
“After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added
There could be commercial planes stuck there - who really knows.
There was one US State Department Dash 8 showing on the ground a few minutes ago, presumably that’s there to evacuate US Embassy staff.
If I had a plane at KBL now, I’d want it somewhere else. Anywhere else would be good. Grab the pilots and get it in the air to somewhere safe.
Emirates airline came close to landing a 777 there this afternoon, before thinking better of it and returning to base. Their insurers will be pleased with that call.
There are tragic reports that some commercial airliners panicked and took off half empty, leaving weeping passengers on the runways, who had legit tickets and visas, but who will likely now be unable to escape the country, and will face the cruel wrath of the Taliban
It is an awful thing
I can’t see civilian operations resuming any time soon, too many unknowns and risks. It’s going to be everyone who needs to get out waiting for military uplift capacity, which might take a while.
Let’s hope that everything runs smoothly, and that those now in charge in Afghanistan are prepared to facilitate the evacuation.
There's an echo of this on my local council, which has been asked to provide support for settling for a few Afghan interpreters and their families. We've said emphatically yes - would be shameful to abandon them, and every council should take a share of the people who helped the British army. I don't know if that's controversial elsewhere, but it has cross-party support here.
Good to hear, it doesn’t sound particularly controversial to give asylum to the interpreters, who took a huge risk to help the British Army. They certainly can’t be left in Afghanistan after they helped the West, and especially not after today’s events.
I’m sure Nigel Farage is opposed, as he is to pretty much all immigration, but he represents a very small minority these days.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.
Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.
He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
Johnson was bloody dreadful on the news tonight. Totally out of his depth.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
The result of the last 20 years is we avoided 9/11 2, Biden has just made Afghanistan a terrorist state again and sent the chances of 9/11 2 rocketing sadly
A conference call between members of Congress and the Biden administration’s top diplomatic and military leaders on Afghanistan turned contentious on Sunday, as lawmakers pressed the administration on how intelligence on the Taliban could have failed so badly and how long the military will secure the Kabul airport.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
There is logic in logical self-criticism, though. In fact the Greeks, and to a certain extent by extension the West itself, invented it as a key motor of democratic and cultural progress.
One of the few times I agree with you. This is a shameful abandonment of our allies and friends.
It is a complete military, intelligence and political failure, and it is a profound moral failure, which is even worse
If we had to quit (and I am far from clear that we did) then it should have been planned as a slow, secure exodus of all the people who wanted to leave Afghanistan - our friends, helpers, allies. Activists, feminists, artists. All those who face terror and death under the Taliban
What we have done is like wilfully abandoning a country to the Nazis, even though we had no military need to do so. And doing it casually over a weekend
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
Its a joint withdrawal. As much on us as on them. No threat from the Taliban said Liar.
If the argument is now "the big boy made me do it" then we have literally no power or authority or purpose other than to bow and scrape to whatever America does.
I'm reasonably confident that isn't your perspective and it certainly isn't the Essicks hypocrite's.
The US has been caught napping on the need for air combat cover. You'd expect it over the area by now, in fact you'd have expected some kind of presence in Kabul such at the Hercules based gunships or attack helicopters (which admittedly require a suprisingly large amount of logistics).
Today the Taliban said they werent moving into Kabul, later in the day they moved into the city. The US air presence is a long way away but it is arriving, probably in the form of B52s, the proverbial sledgehammer.
Good prediction
#BREAKING: Two B-52H heavy bombers including 60-0029 supported by two KC-135R tankers including 57-1506 have headed to #Afghanistan to patrol over the #Kabul. You can't see second aircraft of each type, because they have turned-off their transponders. https://pic.twitter.com/54r5jDNVbZ
Ah, that’s what the noise was. Bloody loud things, B52s.
What we have done is like wilfully abandoning a country to the Nazis, even though we had no military need to do so. And doing it casually over a weekend
With key personnel on holiday...
I remember being six hours into my holiday in Spain when Russia and Georgia’s 2008 war began. I was FCO minister for Europe. Gordon Brown rightly had me back at my desk that same day. https://twitter.com/glasgowmurphy/status/1426980461256089601
Former Labour Defence Secretary and Director General of NATO George Robertson not holding back about Dominic Raab being on holiday. Says “It is stunning....The horrors unfolding with every minute demand focussed attention from the top.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1426954500775022594
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.
And Biden sure as hell didn't want to keep US troops in Afghanistan and leave himself open to Trumpian attacks, resonating with the deeply parochial American electorate, of failing to bring their boys home as per the fabulous plan bequeathed to him by the man himself.
Trumpites will mock him now anyway as a loser.
Indeed Trump already has done so 'former President Trump slammed President Biden on Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.
“He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.
“After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added
Yes, Trump will be bullshitting away. It's what he does. But I don't see this as having much force. For years he's been banging on about America First. This is America First in the way that most people there probably understand it. Troops out of faraway countries that they neither understand nor care about.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
Johnson could have advised, warned, commented, prepared, protected. Either he is a fat and ineffectual little powderpuff, or he isn't. Which in your view is the case?
Robert Peston @Peston · 1h . @BorisJohnson wants a coordinated international response to the Taliban’s coup “in the coming months”. Which is all but official confirmation of the Taliban takeover
Johnson could have advised, warned, commented, prepared, protected. Either he is a fat and ineffectual little powderpuff, or he isn't. Which in your view is the case?
The withdrawal should have come with conditions . So on this front the Biden administration has failed , however for those thinking Americans will punish the Dems at future elections over this chaotic withdrawal . US elections are won on domestic issues and most in the USA wanted out of Afghanistan.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
Something is rotten in the state of the West, but I'm not sure you can blame the woke for this one.
Today's events were on a plan and timetable set by Trump. Bet you wouldn't want to call him woke to his face. Those plans continued to be implemented by Biden- old school Democrat, not woke at all. Barely awake. The UK had little choice in reality but to copy the USA, but we also have the most obsessively anti-woke government of my lifetime.
Philip Larkin may have been a ghastly person with some dreadful views, but I keep coming back in my mind to his lines
Places they guarded, or kept orderly, Must guard themselves, and keep themselves orderly We want the money for ourselves at home Instead of working. And this is all right.
Public opinion doesn't want to exert itself in defence of values, because it doesn't want to inconvenience itself. I suspect we're about to see something similar in terms of a lack of useful measures to minimise climate change. And politicians daren't shake us out of this, because they know that if they do, they won't get re-elected.
And it's not that difficult to whitewash over what the west has chosen to do here. (OK- it's quite difficult. But I have tweenage daughters and so I can't help thinking of the stuff that tweenage girls elsewhere have been abandoned to, and would have been even if this were going well.)
Robert Peston @Peston · 1h . @BorisJohnson wants a coordinated international response to the Taliban’s coup “in the coming months”. Which is all but official confirmation of the Taliban takeover
"the coming months?" Seriously?
And you only have to look at al jazeera broadcasting from inside the presidential palace for confirmation of the Taliban takeover.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.
Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.
He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
How could the withdrawl have been done better?
Faster? Focusing on getting everyone out quick?
There was no withdrawal possible the would not have resulted in the Taliban taking over. Afghanistan had a Potemkin army, it was completely incapable of functioning without the logistic support of the US.
The only way to withdrawl successfully was to have a time machine and go back and do everything differently from pre invasion planning onwards.
Well someone has got to leave next, and as this is a betting site, odds as to who that might be seems a more than relevant point for discussion.
Not right now.. Dickson used to post lots of pointless betting odds. Boris is going nowhere.. who his successor is irrelevant right now.
Huh? This is (supposedly) a political betting blog. I’m fascinated by your proposition that some political betting odds are “pointless”. Please show your workings.
According to the markets, there is actually a percentage of the punting public who do think that Johnson is going. That’s the fun! Put your money where your mouth is.
The withdrawal should have come with conditions . So on this front the Biden administration has failed , however for those thinking Americans will punish the Dems at future elections over this chaotic withdrawal . US elections are won on domestic issues and most in the USA wanted out of Afghanistan.
Nixon won in 1972 as McGovern wanted to withdraw from Vietnam. Ford lost in 1976 after South Vietnam fell, Carter lost in 1980 after the Iran hostages crisis, Bush won in 2004 because of 9/11. Obama won in 2008 because of Iraq in part
That is not always the case. If we get 9/11 2 it will be international events becoming domestic anyway
"The UK ambassador is staying put & processing paperwork for citizens & staff to evacuate.
"“According to Ch4 News, our ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow has remained and is personally processing visas for Afghani staff at the airport. The man & others with him are heroes.”"
Johnson could have advised, warned, commented, prepared, protected. Either he is a fat and ineffectual little powderpuff, or he isn't. Which in your view is the case?
BoZo fucks up yet another withdrawal...
Princess Nut Nuts is already up the duff. Who’s the new mum-to-be?
"The UK ambassador is staying put & processing paperwork for citizens & staff to evacuate.
"“According to Ch4 News, our ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow has remained and is personally processing visas for Afghani staff at the airport. The man & others with him are heroes.”"
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
The reality is - however terrible they are - societies like the Taliban have a degree of order and coherance that ours lack. Consequently, they can be defeated and then fight for 20 years against a technically far more superior adversory, and regain power.
It reminds me a bit of the world described in the Icelandic sagas where a system of war and plunder leads at least to a stable social order.
As for our society, there is simply no narrative about what we are here for and what we are here to do. We don't know. We have no purpose. It is not even possible to create and project a political narrative that people buy in to, as a whole load of discourse is now censored or even legislated out of existence. This was a phenomenon which predated the woke, but has got far worse since they arrived on the scene.
In short we are a society that is inexplicably committing suicide.
"The UK ambassador is staying put & processing paperwork for citizens & staff to evacuate.
"“According to Ch4 News, our ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow has remained and is personally processing visas for Afghani staff at the airport. The man & others with him are heroes.”"
The front page of the Mail on line is pretty devastating for Boris. A picture of him arsing around with some member of Team GB taken just 3 hours before his statement that he was doing all he could to get British personnel out of Kabul, deeply concerned, etc. waffle waffle. The headline also points out that the Foreign Secretary is away on holiday. Isn't there anyone in Goverment with gravitas?
"The UK ambassador is staying put & processing paperwork for citizens & staff to evacuate.
"“According to Ch4 News, our ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow has remained and is personally processing visas for Afghani staff at the airport. The man & others with him are heroes.”"
Hard to argue with Jon Sopel on this front Arguments can be made about the US policy to pull out – there is a strong feeling that US involvement couldn’t continue ad infinitum.
But the manner of the withdrawal has been hapless, with a mass of miscalculation, warnings ignored, and – critically – a wild over-estimation of the capability of the American-trained Afghan armed forces.
The front page of the Mail on line is pretty devastating for Boris. A picture of him arsing around with some member of Team GB taken just 3 hours before his statement that he was doing all he could to get British personnel out of Kabul, deeply concerned, etc. waffle waffle. The headline also points out that the Foreign Secretary is away on holiday. Isn't there anyone in Goverment with gravitas?
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
The reality is - however terrible they are - societies like the Taliban have a degree of order and coherance that ours lack. Consequently, they can be defeated and then fight for 20 years against a technically far more superior adversory, and regain power.
It reminds me a bit of the world described in the Icelandic sagas where a system of war and plunder leads at least to a stable social order.
As for our society, there is simply no narrative about what we are here for and what we are here to do. We don't know. We have no purpose. It is not even possible to create and project a political narrative that people buy in to, as a whole load of discourse is now censored or even legislated out of existence. This was a phenomenon which predated the woke, but has got far worse since they arrived on the scene.
In short we are a society that is inexplicably committing suicide.
Cultural confusion and lack of cultural self-confidence is very far from solely attributable to the left. Fundamentalist free-market thinking, particularly as it affects the mass media, broadcasting, the arts, and all forms of public culture, has also wrought havoc in Britain and America over the last thirty years, for instance.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.
Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.
He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
How could the withdrawl have been done better?
Faster? Focusing on getting everyone out quick?
There was no withdrawal possible the would not have resulted in the Taliban taking over. Afghanistan had a Potemkin army, it was completely incapable of functioning without the logistic support of the US.
The only way to withdrawl successfully was to have a time machine and go back and do everything differently from pre invasion planning onwards.
I'm not supporting the withdrawal but if you decide to withdraw: 1. Do not announce this as your aim during negotiations. 2. In particular do not announce a date or even a target. 3. During negotiations increase military activity on the ground. 4. Put credible retaliation via bombing into position to cover latter part of withdrawal. 5. Pause and retaliate during process of Taliban break agreements.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
On my own account, and that of those with whom I associate, whether or not in pubs, can I assure fellow pb-ers that Mr HUFYD, district councillor though he may be, does NOT speak for everyone in Essex.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.
Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.
He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
How could the withdrawl have been done better?
Faster? Focusing on getting everyone out quick?
There was no withdrawal possible the would not have resulted in the Taliban taking over. Afghanistan had a Potemkin army, it was completely incapable of functioning without the logistic support of the US.
The only way to withdrawl successfully was to have a time machine and go back and do everything differently from pre invasion planning onwards.
I'm not supporting the withdrawal but if you decide to withdraw: 1. Do not announce this as your aim during negotiations. 2. In particular do not announce a date or even a target. 3. During negotiations increase military activity on the ground. 4. Put credible retaliation via bombing into position to cover latter part of withdrawal. 5. Pause and retaliate during process of Taliban break agreements.
The problem is the logistics. At some point you have to withdraw the engineers who are maintaining the planes that are doing the bombings . Once they are gone you don't have any local planes and are relying on aircraft coming from thousands of miles away. Your operational agility plummets.
Yes, America has fucked up this withdrawl process badly starting from Feb last year when it began in earnest but there are certain unavoidable sudden transition points that can't be done smoothly.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
No, in 2012 he was never going to beat Obama but now is his time
Seems to be a socking great painting of Jesus (or the Prophet?) blessing/crowning a warrior behind the Presidential desk. I thought that was a no-no. Surpised the Taliban haven't had it down yet.
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
"The Pentagon is authorizing the deployment of another U.S. 1,000 troops to Kabul, boosting overall number expected in Afghanistan to about 6,000, two U.S. officials tell me.
The additional 1,000 come from an 82nd Airborne Division brigade already deploying in response to crisis."
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
The result of the last 20 years is we avoided 9/11 2, Biden has just made Afghanistan a terrorist state again and sent the chances of 9/11 2 rocketing sadly
Terrorism never stopped you silly little man. Perhaps you didn't notice the recent history of Bali, Madrid, Mumbai and London.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
There’s a place called “Mitt” in Essex? I was aware of the Romney Marsh in Kent but Mitt, Essex escaped me.
"The UK ambassador is staying put & processing paperwork for citizens & staff to evacuate.
"“According to Ch4 News, our ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow has remained and is personally processing visas for Afghani staff at the airport. The man & others with him are heroes.”"
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
Why do you care about Scottish opinion polls? The tanks and gunboats are keeping Scotland in the Union irrespective of what the Scots think.
We respect the once in a generation 2014 vote against independence and clearly most Scots agree
No they don’t. They just voted in 72 pro-independence legislators dedicated to a fresh independence referendum. The Unionists only managed 57 legislators. Real votes on real ballot papers count more than opinion polls.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
No, in 2012 he was never going to beat Obama but now is his time
Is he going to change parties? Thought, and still think, Trump’s nailed on for GOP candidate. Unless he’s in the pokey!
What America needs to do, if it really wants to withdraw its 3,000 troops in Afghanistan, in the next few weeks, is send maybe 80,000 troops to Afghanistan, to help secure it, for the next 5-10 years, then when it needs to withdraw them, send in no more than 5 million marines for a century
"DS Val John-Baptiste, of Specialist Crime North, said: 'I need to hear from anyone who witnessed the incident or saw anything suspicious in and around Clarence Gardens.
'We thoroughly investigate every shooting in London – every incident and every weapon on our streets is of great concern to us.'"
Didn't the DS receive any training in sounding as if they mean what they say, or in thinking about what people might actually HEAR them as saying? The DS is practically down at "Your call is important to us" level, presentation-wise. Some people will hear the meaning as "Another scum-on-scum shooting. Back as you were, everyone!"
On my own account, and that of those with whom I associate, whether or not in pubs, can I assure fellow pb-ers that Mr HUFYD, district councillor though he may be, does NOT speak for everyone in Essex.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
No, in 2012 he was never going to beat Obama but now is his time
Is he going to change parties? Thought, and still think, Trump’s nailed on for GOP candidate. Unless he’s in the pokey!
Depends on how all this pans out, if combatting global terrorism rockets to the top of the agenda again and restoring US national security and ability to stand up to Putin and Xi then Romney is the man
On my own account, and that of those with whom I associate, whether or not in pubs, can I assure fellow pb-ers that Mr HUFYD, district councillor though he may be, does NOT speak for everyone in Essex.
"The Pentagon is authorizing the deployment of another U.S. 1,000 troops to Kabul, boosting overall number expected in Afghanistan to about 6,000, two U.S. officials tell me.
The additional 1,000 come from an 82nd Airborne Division brigade already deploying in response to crisis."
There’s at least five visible planes en route from the US base in Qatar at the moment, some are probably in pairs as was suggested earlier. Variety of types, bombers, tankers and transporters.
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
Why do you care about Scottish opinion polls? The tanks and gunboats are keeping Scotland in the Union irrespective of what the Scots think.
We respect the once in a generation 2014 vote against independence and clearly most Scots agree
No they don’t. They just voted in 72 pro-independence legislators dedicated to a fresh independence referendum. The Unionists only managed 57 legislators. Real votes on real ballot papers count more than opinion polls.
In voteshare terms they did not get over 50%, certainly on the constituency vote.
However as I made clear legally and constututionally the future of the Union is up to the UK government, indyref2 is entirely in the gift of Westminster and they have said no.
British troops have arrived in Kabul as the Afghanistan crisis unfolds.
Personnel from 16 Air Assault Brigade are part of Operation Pitting, a short-term deployment to evacuate UK nationals and former staff from the country.
On my own account, and that of those with whom I associate, whether or not in pubs, can I assure fellow pb-ers that Mr HUFYD, district councillor though he may be, does NOT speak for everyone in Essex.
Does Priti Patel speak for the rest?
No; thought she and HYUFD were on the same page.
Ambassador Laurie Bristow would appear to be an Essex man. Colchester.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
The result of the last 20 years is we avoided 9/11 2, Biden has just made Afghanistan a terrorist state again and sent the chances of 9/11 2 rocketing sadly
Terrorism never stopped you silly little man. Perhaps you didn't notice the recent history of Bali, Madrid, Mumbai and London.
No major attack on a western city on anything like the scale of 9/11, including 7/7
On my own account, and that of those with whom I associate, whether or not in pubs, can I assure fellow pb-ers that Mr HUFYD, district councillor though he may be, does NOT speak for everyone in Essex.
Does Priti Patel speak for the rest?
No; thought she and HYUFD were on the same page.
Doesn't Priti just want to protect our borders from outsiders, while HYUFD wishes to expand our borders in a bid for world domination?
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
The reality is - however terrible they are - societies like the Taliban have a degree of order and coherance that ours lack. Consequently, they can be defeated and then fight for 20 years against a technically far more superior adversory, and regain power.
It reminds me a bit of the world described in the Icelandic sagas where a system of war and plunder leads at least to a stable social order.
As for our society, there is simply no narrative about what we are here for and what we are here to do. We don't know. We have no purpose. It is not even possible to create and project a political narrative that people buy in to, as a whole load of discourse is now censored or even legislated out of existence. This was a phenomenon which predated the woke, but has got far worse since they arrived on the scene.
In short we are a society that is inexplicably committing suicide.
Cultural confusion and lack of cultural self-confidence is very far from solely attributable to the left. Fundamentalist free-market thinking, particularly as it affects the mass media, broadcasting, the arts, and all forms of public culture, has also wrought havoc in Britain and America over the last thirty years, for instance.
There’s a really corrosive cynicism which holds that you can’t do any good, so you might as well do nothing at all.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
The result of the last 20 years is we avoided 9/11 2, Biden has just made Afghanistan a terrorist state again and sent the chances of 9/11 2 rocketing sadly
Terrorism never stopped you silly little man. Perhaps you didn't notice the recent history of Bali, Madrid, Mumbai and London.
No major attack on a western city on anything like the scale of 9/11, including 7/7
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
Why do you care about Scottish opinion polls? The tanks and gunboats are keeping Scotland in the Union irrespective of what the Scots think.
We respect the once in a generation 2014 vote against independence and clearly most Scots agree
No they don’t. They just voted in 72 pro-independence legislators dedicated to a fresh independence referendum. The Unionists only managed 57 legislators. Real votes on real ballot papers count more than opinion polls.
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 47m For decades people decried US imperialism. Today we’re seeing the product of US isolationism. Complain if you like. But this is the world we live in now. And it has been since Obama refused to reinforce his own Red Lines in Syria.
Would you have preferred it if the US had gone for a Vietnam 2 in Afghanistan, but with a different result this time, being hell-bent on showing who's boss, "whatever it takes", reintroducing conscription if necessary? My goodness, how jihadists everywhere would love that, as also would strategists in Moscow and Beijing and probably Ankara too.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
Yes, LBJ delivered civil rights, Medicare and Medicaid and Saigon never fell on his watch.
Biden does not deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as LBJ!!
Civil Rights? Medicare and Medicaid? Sounds like a communist to me.
If LBJ was a communist he would have handed over South Vietnam to the Vietcong and North on a plate.
He may have been a bit too big government for me but he was also tough and hard as nails and a patriot
Attacking Biden. Not attacking Johnson for the exact same policy. You hypocrite.
This is the problem. HY judges Biden very harshly and Johnson very lightly when in reality Johnson bears much more responsibility than Biden.
I'm not to be outdone by many in my contempt for Johnson but the Afghanistan debacle is 99% American and of that 70% down to Biden in the sense that a much better withdrawal could have been conducted (not saying whether withdrawal at this time correct). The British electorate will probably not condemn Johnstone over this unless he puts in a crap performance in parliament or there is a glaring specifically British piece of mismanagement.
How could the withdrawl have been done better?
Faster? Focusing on getting everyone out quick?
There was no withdrawal possible the would not have resulted in the Taliban taking over. Afghanistan had a Potemkin army, it was completely incapable of functioning without the logistic support of the US.
The only way to withdrawl successfully was to have a time machine and go back and do everything differently from pre invasion planning onwards.
I'm not supporting the withdrawal but if you decide to withdraw: 1. Do not announce this as your aim during negotiations. 2. In particular do not announce a date or even a target. 3. During negotiations increase military activity on the ground. 4. Put credible retaliation via bombing into position to cover latter part of withdrawal. 5. Pause and retaliate during process of Taliban break agreements.
I’ve not been especially impressed with the Vietnam comparisons however: you have just in effect described Nixon’s strategy in the lead up to the Paris Accords.
Look like Australia is steadfastly maintaining a zero-covid strategy, targeting their limited doses to 20-39 year-olds (high transmitters, low personal risk). And no, they are not running short of vulnerable people to protect.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame
The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office
The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
Who gives a shite about the contents when there is some nice engineering to see? (I was really hacked when Oxford Uni demolished the old LNWR railway station there - made up of modules left over from the 1851 building. But that is another story, and it got preserved elsewhere anyway.)
When they redid the station, they found that a couple of pieces of iron bracing some rotting timer were actually original broad gauge track.... I'd wondered as an 8 year old... they matched the description in Rolt perfectly and were quite unusual.
JUST IN: Hamid Karzai Int'l Airport in Kabul is still taking constant fire and U.S. forces are attempting to take care of the threats, per journalist on the ground.
More US troops are flooding in to the airport. BUT the Tailban are sweeping into Kabul, in Humvees
"Thousands of #Taliban arrived from Logar & other provinces of #Afghanistan at #Kabul to secure the capital as the #US is trying to evacuate several Afghans trapped in the airport."
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Maybe the reality of every western government that their electorates have had enough of foreign military interventions
Look like Australia is steadfastly maintaining a zero-covid strategy, targeting their limited doses to 20-39 year-olds (high transmitters, low personal risk). And no, they are not running short of vulnerable people to protect.
I speculated at the time of the Olympics that the success of Team GB with a disproportionate number of Scots proudly wearing the badge and waving the Union Jack just might have some effect. We are about to get a repeat for the para-Olympics.
We shall see. The list of obvious gains from the Union (vaccines, furlough, economic growth) is pretty strong at the moment but there is a lot of emotion in play.
On the Olympic front I don't see why it would have a lasting affect this time thta it did not last time, given sentiment remains pretty much as it was.
I'm not at all convinced it will make any difference at all. All the identity-driven voters - those liable to be swayed by such symbolic matters as who appears under what flag at a sporting event - will think as well or as badly of Britain after the Olympics as they did before.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
One of the more astute observations on this topic on PB. As I keep telling FUDHY and other bampots, Unionists can never win by solely appealing to their core vote. And nor can we sovereigntists. It is the huge number of ‘neutrals’, probably the majority, who will decide this. Thus far the pro-independence parties are doing a better job of appealing to this group of ordinary Scots than Johnson’s team.
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
If that is the case why are No on 52% in the latest poll?
Why do you care about Scottish opinion polls? The tanks and gunboats are keeping Scotland in the Union irrespective of what the Scots think.
We respect the once in a generation 2014 vote against independence and clearly most Scots agree
No they don’t. They just voted in 72 pro-independence legislators dedicated to a fresh independence referendum. The Unionists only managed 57 legislators. Real votes on real ballot papers count more than opinion polls.
In voteshare terms they did not get over 50%, certainly on the constituency vote.
However as I made clear legally and constututionally the future of the Union is up to the UK government, indyref2 is entirely in the gift of Westminster and they have said no.
Very sure of yourself: “entirely”, “gift”. Do you even begin to understand the optics of that in Scotland? The arrogance is breathtaking.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Maybe the reality of every western government that their electorates have had enough of foreign military interventions
For now, if we get 9/11 2 they will change their mind
Not COVID-19 related, however, this is exciting news I really wanted to share. Phase I trials of Moderna's HIV vaccine candidate, mRNA-1644, which uses the same mRNA technology as our COVID-19 vaccine, is expected to begin clinical trials this week.
Look like Australia is steadfastly maintaining a zero-covid strategy, targeting their limited doses to 20-39 year-olds (high transmitters, low personal risk). And no, they are not running short of vulnerable people to protect.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame
The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office
The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
The problem with the Dome was the desire to build it was there before any idea of content was there. Governments are very bad at understanding what people want to see, for a recent example look at the Marble Arch Hill. Another great fiasco was the 2012 Jubilee flotilla on the Thames, which didn't seem to have a plan for inclement weather.
We shall see shortly how good the Conservative government organises these things with next year's eagerly awaited FUK*.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame
The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office
The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity
Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.
The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.
The vacuous dross that was actually put there was entirely down to the New Labour Government
Who gives a shite about the contents when there is some nice engineering to see? (I was really hacked when Oxford Uni demolished the old LNWR railway station there - made up of modules left over from the 1851 building. But that is another story, and it got preserved elsewhere anyway.)
When they redid the station, they found that a couple of pieces of iron bracing some rotting timer were actually original broad gauge track.... I'd wondered as an 8 year old... they matched the description in Rolt perfectly and were quite unusual.
What actually happened to the Afghan army? Did they get whupped, or did they just melt away? It seems - from the limited BBC reporting anyway over the last few weeks - that they didn't lose lots of major engagements, they just...melted away. But what is the reality?
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
The result of the last 20 years is we avoided 9/11 2, Biden has just made Afghanistan a terrorist state again and sent the chances of 9/11 2 rocketing sadly
Terrorism never stopped you silly little man. Perhaps you didn't notice the recent history of Bali, Madrid, Mumbai and London.
No major attack on a western city on anything like the scale of 9/11, including 7/7
I'm not hugely sure you can say that the fact there's not been another 9/11 since 9/11 means everything done militarily since 9/11 justifies itself.
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?
The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.
However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.
Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.
By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.
Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.
Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.
The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.
You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral
Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.
And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.
The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.
When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.
Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.
I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.
LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.
Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term
This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.
The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.
It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.
Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?
I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.
It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday
The photos of cutting your losses are never going to look good, but the idea this defines Biden's presidency is crazy. Afghanistan will be looked back on as a mistaken, failed war. But it will not be Biden's mistaken, failed war. The fact he has done this so early in his presidency us exactly why the comparisons to LBJ are off the mark.
It really depends how bad it gets from here
If, somehow, the evacuation is done, no hostages are taken, and the Taliban are unusually merciful, and no terror is exported from Kabul, then yes, Biden could easily shrug it off
But those are enormous IFs. And multiple.
The evacuation might be chaotic and bloody (it doesn't look good so far), the Taliban might easily take hostages, we could have four years of videos of Taliban beheadings, stonings, amputations, women in shrouds, and, worst of all for Biden, if there is one big terror attack on America which is traced back to Taliban ruled Afghanistan, he is toast
This is already the most embarrassing foreign policy episode for America in decades; the auguries for Biden are bad
In foreign policy terms, today is certainly the worst event that has happened in my lifetime. We are fleeing from a supposedly allied country in complete panic as it is overrun by violent Islamic fundamentalists; embassies being evacuated, thousands desperately fleeing, leaving many others to certain torture, rape, slavery and death. Our politicians look like they have no clue about what they are doing and were as surprised as everyone else with what happened. More than anything else, they look like they don't really give a damn; as if the idea of projecting power in the world is an awkward legacy of a bygone era. They will hand it all over to Russia and China, who will carry on with their modern version of pre colonial mercantilism, in doing so abandoning the rule based international order that took a century to build up.
Purely and simply it is a strategic retreat. But it may well be that it this is what western populations want, and if it is, it won't necessarily harm governments politically in the way we expect it to.
All true
The only bit I might argue with is "strategic retreat" - it feels more like hysterical flight
America, in particular, seems to have lost all self confidence in about ten short years. Maybe it started with 9/11, but it has accelerated greatly since 2010. And without America's leadership the West is in grave trouble
Also, it does not have to be like this. The West still has so much going for it - not least, political and intellectual freedom (even if we are determined to destroy this with Wokeness)
We really need some fucking great leaders to shake us out of this nonsensical spiral of doom. We need rid of Woke, as well, as the Russians and Chinese are clearly using it, via social media, to undermine our self esteem, in quite crucial ways
This is indeed shaping up as a complex and difficult century for the West to navigate but so long as we have what others don't have - the ability to think logically - we can, I think, be optimistic.
There is no logic in self hatred and weak capitulation, which is all we are getting from most western leaders at the moment
Well I was just kidding with Leon there, trying to prod him into elaborating on his phrase "logical western thinking".
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
Well I will take up that baton.
Why is the west rich? I would argue that a massive contibutory factor is the scientific method. We are so immersed in this being the 'correct' way of thinking that we hardly notice it - but it is far from the only way of approaching the world, as the medievalists which dominate across parts of the Islamic world and other parts of the third world show. Now, arguably this particular philosophical approach came from the thinking of the ancient Greeks. So it is a western invention. But there is no reason why this approach should be unique to the west.1000 years ago, of course, the west was mired in superstition while the Islamic world led in use of the scientific method. But I don't think it would be too controversial to say much of the Islamic world today is not exactly hot on the Socratic/Cartesian approaches to critical analysis.
"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."
And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them
It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal
Trump's withdrawal.
This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)
BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.
I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.
More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.
It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.
Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.
And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.
Of course you can.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
The result of the last 20 years is we avoided 9/11 2, Biden has just made Afghanistan a terrorist state again and sent the chances of 9/11 2 rocketing sadly
Terrorism never stopped you silly little man. Perhaps you didn't notice the recent history of Bali, Madrid, Mumbai and London.
No major attack on a western city on anything like the scale of 9/11, including 7/7
There was Madrid in 2004. 195 dead, over 2000 injured. That’s a similar scale.
As I noted earlier, Najibullah for all his manifest failings had the balls to refuse passage out, resulting in him being separated from those balls shortly afterwards.
The Taliban advance on Kabul is as fast & ferocious as it was when they won power in 1996. Why? The govt forces, though better trained now, are terrified of their fundamentalist ferocity & their rout at executing people who standup against them."
On my own account, and that of those with whom I associate, whether or not in pubs, can I assure fellow pb-ers that Mr HUFYD, district councillor though he may be, does NOT speak for everyone in Essex.
Does Priti Patel speak for the rest?
No; thought she and HYUFD were on the same page.
Ambassador Laurie Bristow would appear to be an Essex man. Colchester.
Well someone has got to leave next, and as this is a betting site, odds as to who that might be seems a more than relevant point for discussion.
Not right now.. Dickson used to post lots of pointless betting odds. Boris is going nowhere.. who his successor is irrelevant right now.
Huh? This is (supposedly) a political betting blog. I’m fascinated by your proposition that some political betting odds are “pointless”. Please show your workings.
According to the markets, there is actually a percentage of the punting public who do think that Johnson is going. That’s the fun! Put your money where your mouth is.
D+
All the ones you used to.post at 6 am whom few if anyone was interested in and you got banned for iirc I seem remember that you flooded the site with crap.
Comments
Though as I said Romney would have done a better job than both and avoided the withdrawal altogether
I’m sure Nigel Farage is opposed, as he is to pretty much all immigration, but he represents a very small minority these days.
The notion that the UK either would or should remain even after twenty years and a US withdrawal is completely farcical.
Someone as naive as HYUFD might think that we could remain fighting on our own and change the results after two decades with the Americans hasn't - but do you seriously believe that?
Mind, his correct “depth” is Blankety Blank.
The survival of the Union will be determined by the section of the Scottish population that has no emotional attachment to the British state whatsoever but isn't desperate to be rid of it either, and they'll make their decision based on the perceived cost/benefit balance of the arrangement to themselves and their communities. Basically it's all about the money.
NYTimes blog
If we had to quit (and I am far from clear that we did) then it should have been planned as a slow, secure exodus of all the people who wanted to leave Afghanistan - our friends, helpers, allies. Activists, feminists, artists. All those who face terror and death under the Taliban
What we have done is like wilfully abandoning a country to the Nazis, even though we had no military need to do so. And doing it casually over a weekend
If the argument is now "the big boy made me do it" then we have literally no power or authority or purpose other than to bow and scrape to whatever America does.
I'm reasonably confident that isn't your perspective and it certainly isn't the Essicks hypocrite's.
One Grey Hair!!
I remember being six hours into my holiday in Spain when Russia and Georgia’s 2008 war began. I was FCO minister for Europe. Gordon Brown rightly had me back at my desk that same day.
https://twitter.com/glasgowmurphy/status/1426980461256089601
Former Labour Defence Secretary and Director General of NATO George Robertson not holding back about Dominic Raab being on holiday. Says “It is stunning....The horrors unfolding with every minute demand focussed attention from the top.”
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1426954500775022594
Where I disagree with you is that Unionists can win by playing ‘transactional politics’.
Robert Peston @Peston
·
1h
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@BorisJohnson
wants a coordinated international response to the Taliban’s coup “in the coming months”. Which is all but official confirmation of the Taliban takeover
Today's events were on a plan and timetable set by Trump. Bet you wouldn't want to call him woke to his face. Those plans continued to be implemented by Biden- old school Democrat, not woke at all. Barely awake. The UK had little choice in reality but to copy the USA, but we also have the most obsessively anti-woke government of my lifetime.
Philip Larkin may have been a ghastly person with some dreadful views, but I keep coming back in my mind to his lines
Places they guarded, or kept orderly,
Must guard themselves, and keep themselves orderly
We want the money for ourselves at home
Instead of working. And this is all right.
Public opinion doesn't want to exert itself in defence of values, because it doesn't want to inconvenience itself. I suspect we're about to see something similar in terms of a lack of useful measures to minimise climate change. And politicians daren't shake us out of this, because they know that if they do, they won't get re-elected.
And it's not that difficult to whitewash over what the west has chosen to do here. (OK- it's quite difficult. But I have tweenage daughters and so I can't help thinking of the stuff that tweenage girls elsewhere have been abandoned to, and would have been even if this were going well.)
And you only have to look at al jazeera broadcasting from inside the presidential palace for confirmation of the Taliban takeover.
Faster? Focusing on getting everyone out quick?
There was no withdrawal possible the would not have resulted in the Taliban taking over. Afghanistan had a Potemkin army, it was completely incapable of functioning without the logistic support of the US.
The only way to withdrawl successfully was to have a time machine and go back and do everything differently from pre invasion planning onwards.
According to the markets, there is actually a percentage of the punting public who do think that Johnson is going. That’s the fun! Put your money where your mouth is.
D+
That is not always the case. If we get 9/11 2 it will be international events becoming domestic anyway
"The UK ambassador is staying put & processing paperwork for citizens & staff to evacuate.
"“According to Ch4 News, our ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow has remained and is personally processing visas for Afghani staff at the airport. The man & others with him are heroes.”"
Reports say the US Ambassador has gone
https://twitter.com/alexissmirks/status/1426984834006720513?s=20
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
It reminds me a bit of the world described in the Icelandic sagas where a system of war and plunder leads at least to a stable social order.
As for our society, there is simply no narrative about what we are here for and what we are here to do. We don't know. We have no purpose. It is not even possible to create and project a political narrative that people buy in to, as a whole load of discourse is now censored or even legislated out of existence. This was a phenomenon which predated the woke, but has got far worse since they arrived on the scene.
In short we are a society that is inexplicably committing suicide.
Arguments can be made about the US policy to pull out – there is a strong feeling that US involvement couldn’t continue ad infinitum.
But the manner of the withdrawal has been hapless, with a mass of miscalculation, warnings ignored, and – critically – a wild over-estimation of the capability of the American-trained Afghan armed forces.
1. Do not announce this as your aim during negotiations.
2. In particular do not announce a date or even a target.
3. During negotiations increase military activity on the ground.
4. Put credible retaliation via bombing into position to cover latter part of withdrawal.
5. Pause and retaliate during process of Taliban break agreements.
Liking your new Mitt Romney crush btw. Is it because he's named after a place in Essex?
Yes, America has fucked up this withdrawl process badly starting from Feb last year when it began in earnest but there are certain unavoidable sudden transition points that can't be done smoothly.
"The Pentagon is authorizing the deployment of another U.S. 1,000 troops to Kabul, boosting overall number expected in Afghanistan to about 6,000, two U.S. officials tell me.
The additional 1,000 come from an 82nd Airborne Division brigade already deploying in response to crisis."
https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1426983297494790145?s=20
Unless he’s in the pokey!
'We thoroughly investigate every shooting in London – every incident and every weapon on our streets is of great concern to us.'"
Didn't the DS receive any training in sounding as if they mean what they say, or in thinking about what people might actually HEAR them as saying? The DS is practically down at "Your call is important to us" level, presentation-wise. Some people will hear the meaning as "Another scum-on-scum shooting. Back as you were, everyone!"
However as I made clear legally and constututionally the future of the Union is up to the UK government, indyref2 is entirely in the gift of Westminster and they have said no.
Personnel from 16 Air Assault Brigade are part of Operation Pitting, a short-term deployment to evacuate UK nationals and former staff from the country.
https://www.forces.net/news/watch-british-personnel-arrive-kabul-afghanistan-crisis-unfolds https://twitter.com/ForcesNews/status/1426963759076188162/video/1
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/15/a-tale-of-two-armies-why-afghan-forces-proved-no-match-for-the-taliban
And it didn’t work.
1. Prior covid + mRNA 1-dose
2. Adenoviral-vector vaccine 1st dose, mRNA 2nd dose
3. 2 doses mRNA
4. 2 doses adenoviral vector (AZ data)
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1426971389005754371?s=20
And no, they are not running short of vulnerable people to protect.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1426982730122809354?s=20
Their 40-50 cohort have higher second dose rate than their 50-60 cohort....
Rangeload
@harvardfacter
#BIG #BREAKING :
JUST IN: Hamid Karzai Int'l Airport in Kabul is still taking constant fire and U.S. forces are attempting to take care of the threats, per journalist on the ground.
More US troops are flooding in to the airport. BUT the Tailban are sweeping into Kabul, in Humvees
"Thousands of #Taliban arrived from Logar & other provinces of #Afghanistan at #Kabul to secure the capital as the #US is trying to evacuate several Afghans trapped in the airport."
https://twitter.com/steve_ampy/status/1426990252976132105?s=20
The result is panic and chaos at the airport
"NOW - Chaos at #Kabul airport: Hundreds want to leave Afghanistan and are panicking. Gunshots can be heard."
https://twitter.com/TheBelaaz/status/1426991690536013826?s=20
A: There are those who believe there is a Bigfoot.
Leadership spill incoming, perhaps?
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1426914391509905409?s=20
We shall see shortly how good the Conservative government organises these things with next year's eagerly awaited FUK*.
*Festival of the United Kingdom.
W
Funded by Wafic Saïd - best landmines at very reasonable prices......
Why is the west rich? I would argue that a massive contibutory factor is the scientific method. We are so immersed in this being the 'correct' way of thinking that we hardly notice it - but it is far from the only way of approaching the world, as the medievalists which dominate across parts of the Islamic world and other parts of the third world show.
Now, arguably this particular philosophical approach came from the thinking of the ancient Greeks. So it is a western invention. But there is no reason why this approach should be unique to the west.1000 years ago, of course, the west was mired in superstition while the Islamic world led in use of the scientific method. But I don't think it would be too controversial to say much of the Islamic world today is not exactly hot on the Socratic/Cartesian approaches to critical analysis.
@JohnSimpsonNews
The Taliban advance on Kabul is as fast & ferocious as it was when they won power in 1996. Why? The govt forces, though better trained now, are terrified of their fundamentalist ferocity & their rout at executing people who standup against them."
https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1426845440574726152
"Marking Pakistan Independence Day in style”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19514605.anas-sarwar-comes-supporter-independence-just-not-scotland/