Better Together: Olympic edition – politicalbetting.com

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone get Sky Go working? I'm wanting to watch the end of the day's cricket but my app on my phone is saying login expired and can't log me in, my laptop's app isn't working either, and I can't log in to Sky on Firefox either.

Not sure if its me, or if its blocked by the WiFi where I'm staying.

I've just checked my brother's login, which I use sometimes, and it appears to be working fine.

Can I trouble you for some advice.

Are there any restaurants in/near Newcastle train station?

Plenty when I was last there in 2017.

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

Leon said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

My guess.

Biden has to deploy a huge force now to just hold the airport area. Massive evacuations. A three day operation.

For other nations it's much the same if there's scale. If not, suppose the UK is left alone then special forces to get the nationals over the border into Pakistan.

How feasible is it to have an operation to hold an international airport for a few days? Presumably you need to keep the runway to get the cargo planes in and out. Other people on here know more about this than me, but surely the runway could just be blown up and then its all over?

Maybe they already did.

I have NO idea if this is true, but his feed is interesting



Warren Platts
@WarrenPlatts
@zerohedge
Scoop for you: Kabul airport just got overran about 20 minutes ago..

https://twitter.com/WarrenPlatts/status/1426946659783790601?s=20

That seems quite possible. If the evacuation was going ahead, then you would presumably see more radar evidence of planes (as could be seen earlier today); that is unless the evacuation planes are flying in and out without any call sign.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.

They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.

I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

China IS secular (ask the Uighurs).

Yes but it is also ruthless as the West has now ceased to be, sadly it seems even in defence of our freedoms and liberty.

The US is not secular, it is one of the most Christian countries in the world still but at the moment it seems to have given up the fight

Carnyx said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

My guess.

Biden has to deploy a huge force now to just hold the airport area. Massive evacuations. A three day operation.

For other nations it's much the same if there's scale. If not, suppose the UK is left alone then special forces to get the nationals over the border into Pakistan.

How feasible is it to have an operation to hold an international airport for a few days? Presumably you need to keep the runway to get the cargo planes in and out. Other people on here know more about this than me, but surely the runway could just be blown up and then its all over?

You'd need to secure the area around the runway to stop light flak, of the kind often mounted on pickups, and man-portable AA missiles taking out the planes when they are low and slow on their approach or takeoff. Especially if civilian - not trained or equipped to do evasive action, use decoy flares, have IR jammers, etc. I would not like to be holding the perimeter on that sort of situation - even hasving a helicopter to jump into wouldn't get you very far unless it had the range to get to a neighbouring state.

Yes, trying to keep an airport open, especially for civvie traffic, is a right pain in the arse. You’d need to clear a mile or two outside the perimeter down the runway line.

Mil ops are easier, because they can fly in a more sporting manner if required - the famous Khandahar approach, over the boundary at 1,000’, then pull the flaps and the reversers and hang on tight!

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

I'm not sure it will, the multi national combat capability at the airport is more than enough to hold it if they've brought the right kit. The air support is a problem because most of it left out of Bagarm weeks ago so its coming in at range off the Indian ocean or the Gulf which has cycle problems. The US has been working on agreement for logistics and aircraft basing in the ex Soviet states to the North though stories have it that they arent in place. Given that reportedly about half the announced troop commitment is actually on the ground they may be short but not by much.

Just to be clear on this, this is firmly on Biden. Whilst there are no great answers in Afghanistan the line was held by the US presence, in particular locally based air support and more importantly support for the Afghan airforce through the deployment of US military & contract specialists. It had become a relatively low commitment compared to what came before. The US & British have an extensive network there, some of which fed into the global intelligence effort and if you go back over the last 10 -15 years Al Qaeda, whos best home base was Afghanistan hasn't been heard of as much. It still very much exists but it has been denied a tremendous location where it operated with impunity. The idea that the fall of the Taliban regime and the Western presence in Afghanistan hasnt been a contributor to Al Qaeda being on the back foot is patent balls.

The truth of the matter was the US Intelligence & in particlar the Dept of Defense often ignored Trump (see Syria), they took stuff off the table to avoid Trump going off in the worst direction. Things got back to a relative normality under Biden but none of them, Intelligence Community or DoD wanted a withdrawal. Bidens call against advice. In Counter Insurgency a level of containment is often the ultimate military strategy as much as what is delightfully called 'pacification'. In that regard for a relatively low ongoing commitment thats what they had.

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Aslan said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

No it is far worse than Saigon. Vietnam was never used to attack the west as Afghanistan was by Bin Laden and Al Qaeda.

Biden is now clearly the worst US President in foreign policy terms of the last 100 years if not all time.

If and when terrorists return to Afghanistan to plot 9/11 2 that will only confirm it

Yes, this is, potentially, much worse than Saigon - for the Afghan people, for the USA, for the West, for the world

Xi Jinping is probably planning his invasion of Taiwan over dinner right now. What are the chances of sleepy Joe B opposing him?

You have on this very thread said we should intervene when we need to, and then leave. When a president finally leaves after two decades in a place, you take this as a sign he wouldn't intervene somewhere else. Even though the guy has supported military interventions numerous times.

Why don't you just admit you are horribly biased against anyone from the "left" party in any country?

What? I despised Trump. I thought the way he scuttled out of Syria - leaving the Kurds to their own devices - was odious.

But this is worse. It just is. If Trump did it - if any American president did it - I'd be equally scathing

Biden should have accepted a long term US presence in Afghanistan. The cost of basing a few thousand troops is better than the new global terror we now potentially face

And if the idiot Biden absolutely HAD to quit Afghanistan there were so many ways better than this. Like waiting for winter when the Taliban don't fight etc. Like getting everyone to safety first before removing the troops. And so on, and so forth

I think Trump is one of the most unpleasant men ever to hold elected office in the West, if not the most.

However, not everything he did or called was wrong just because he was Trump and, by the same token, not everything his opponents said or did in opposition was right.

Foreign policy isn't easy - you can be damned if you do, and damned if you don't - but I think the West usually has more robust leadership when the Republicans are in the Oval Office.

I can't see anything robust about Trump's deal to free 5000 taliban commanders and set an exit date. As I remember, before Trump's presidency, Obama, Clinton and Biden all wanted to keep that small, but crucial, residual skeleton force in place in Afghanistan.

Trump announced the withdrawal on a whim for social media clicks, and short-term shoring up of his America First base before an election, which isn't what I would call robust leadership.

And his abject betrayal of the Kurds.

Well he's down as a peaceful president. He's sown some of these seeds though.

Leon said:

pigeon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.

They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.

I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

Many of them would be delighted to seize multiple western hostages, and they would happily invite America back only to humiliate it again, because they believe Allah is on their side and they will always, eventually, win. They must be particularly triumphalist right now

From the BBC live blog, about an hour ago:

A spokeswoman for the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef) in Kabul has told the BBC that, so far, the Taliban have respected "the sanctity of the charity's offices".

She said the Taliban wanted the UN to stay and continue their work.

Sam Mort said militants had been polite and were currently safeguarding UN operations.

She stressed Unicef's commitment to the women and children of Afghanistan, saying it hoped to resume operations within a couple of days.

I don't think that any of this means that the Afghan people, including women and children, will be spared brutal rule. I'm quite sure that the Taliban will also root out and slaughter those they view as collaborators. But this, and previous reports, suggest that they want some degree of assistance and to engage with the outside world.

Again, they know that if they desist from facilitating the export of terror - and, therefore, avoid making sworn enemies - abroad, then they'll gain access to humanitarian aid and the licence (impotent handwringing about human rights aside) to do as they please at home.

Leon said:

pigeon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.

They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.

I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

Many of them would be delighted to seize multiple western hostages, and they would happily invite America back only to humiliate it again, because they believe Allah is on their side and they will always, eventually, win. They must be particularly triumphalist right now

You see Logic as a Western owned trait?

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone get Sky Go working? I'm wanting to watch the end of the day's cricket but my app on my phone is saying login expired and can't log me in, my laptop's app isn't working either, and I can't log in to Sky on Firefox either.

Not sure if its me, or if its blocked by the WiFi where I'm staying.

I've just checked my brother's login, which I use sometimes, and it appears to be working fine.

Thanks. Must be the WiFi here blocking it. And no Sky Mobile here either.

Use a VPN to test if the wifi is blocking it.
Make sure it’s a UK connection though, because Sky will block you if it’s from abroad.

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

My guess.

Biden has to deploy a huge force now to just hold the airport area. Massive evacuations. A three day operation.

For other nations it's much the same if there's scale. If not, suppose the UK is left alone then special forces to get the nationals over the border into Pakistan.

How feasible is it to have an operation to hold an international airport for a few days? Presumably you need to keep the runway to get the cargo planes in and out. Other people on here know more about this than me, but surely the runway could just be blown up and then its all over?

Maybe they already did.

I have NO idea if this is true, but his feed is interesting



Warren Platts
@WarrenPlatts
@zerohedge
Scoop for you: Kabul airport just got overran about 20 minutes ago..

https://twitter.com/WarrenPlatts/status/1426946659783790601?s=20

That seems quite possible. If the evacuation was going ahead, then you would presumably see more radar evidence of planes (as could be seen earlier today); that is unless the evacuation planes are flying in and out without any call sign.

Also this:

UPDATE U.S. Embassy in Kabul issues security alert: “Reports of the airport taking fire. Shelter in place. Do not come to the Embassy or airport at this time.”
UPDATE The runway is declared unsafe for landing due to possible mortar barrage.

https://twitter.com/stkki/status/1426950892134166528?s=20



"mortar barrage" - if true - is deeply ominous

I think Kabul airport only has one runway so if it's fucked then that's everything fucked

If the airport is now out of action as the only largescale means of escape this could now turn into a massacre, God help us and more to the point God help all those still in Kabul

Indeed

"Kabul's Saigon moment (all over town): A thousand passengers are attempting to board a plan destined for Istanbul (that can only take 300). Absolute mayhem at Kabul Airport. No security, no order..."

https://twitter.com/saadmohseni/status/1426942627174301699?s=20

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

What is, Newcastle’s defending today. .

Boris Johnson is a pound shop Neville Chamberlain/Lord Halifax.

Here are two key bits from the Prime Minister’s interview. A clear pivot - accepting Taliban takeover, trying to shape what comes next by using one of the few levers left: recognising the new government.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1426954371582070787

If you're not condemning Boris Johnson as well as Joe Biden then you're just hyper partisan.

Gallowgate said:

Taz said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone get Sky Go working? I'm wanting to watch the end of the day's cricket but my app on my phone is saying login expired and can't log me in, my laptop's app isn't working either, and I can't log in to Sky on Firefox either.

Not sure if its me, or if its blocked by the WiFi where I'm staying.

I've just checked my brother's login, which I use sometimes, and it appears to be working fine.

Can I trouble you for some advice.

Are there any restaurants in/near Newcastle train station?

There's a great Indian just behind Newcastle train station - Sachins. Alternatively 'Central Oven & Shaker' just across the street does great pizza. Maybe they'd even do you pineapple, although hopefully not.

Yeah, Sachins, it’s decent. If you like Middle Eastern A Taste of Persia is excellent. Iranian refugees who came here in the seventies and they have a second restaurant in Jesmond. They Rw Not far from the life centre. Central oven and shaker is a step up from dominos when it comes to pizza and that’s it, Newcastle tap a few metres away is much better.

Unfortunately I don't agree. Central oven is my 2nd favourite pizza place in Newcastle with Dat Bar coming top.

I can disagree with you on central oven and shaker but totally agree on Dat Bar. It’s fantastic. And a great choice of beers too.

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

I very much hope the Taliban stay away from the airport for as long as possible.

They'll leave the airport alone. Any gunfire nearby is the product of a few hotheads. They no doubt want the foreigners gone: they've nothing to gain from provoking the Americans into launching mass bombing raids.

Hopefully they'll then have enough control over their own territory to prevent jihadist groups re-establishing and using the country as a base to plan and execute atrocities abroad. The Taliban aren't completely stupid. They must realise that if they don't cause problems abroad they'll be left to inflict whatever brutalities they desire at home. Nobody is going to launch another military intervention in Afghanistan to save it from itself.

I really don't share your confidence that the Taliban think in this "logical" western way. They are fighting religious war against unbelievers, they want the world under sharia law. The secular west is the big enemy, and it is showing weakness (unlike China)

Many of them would be delighted to seize multiple western hostages, and they would happily invite America back only to humiliate it again, because they believe Allah is on their side and they will always, eventually, win. They must be particularly triumphalist right now

You see Logic as a Western owned trait?

Oh just fuck off tedious Woke twit

ISTR - and I can't remember the details and can't be bothered to look them up as I'm trying to cook a roast dinner (although arguably I could have done so in the time taken to explain why I'm not doing so - anyway) some American university making a very similar point: that it is racist to use logic, because logic is a uniquely Western trait.

Royal aides believe there are “inconsistencies” in the Duke of York’s account of his dealings with Virginia Giuffre, who has accused him in a US lawsuit of underage rape, as it emerged that his legal bills are being underwritten by the Queen.

Lawyers for Prince Andrew are desperate to prevent the case from going to trial in America because they fear jurors may not believe him over an alleged victim of sexual abuse.

Although the prince strenuously denies Giuffre’s claims, palace insiders believe there are “credibility” problems with his version of events.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/royal-aides-doubt-prince-andrews-story-wnc6hgd6k

TheScreamingEagles said:

If you're not condemning Boris Johnson as well as Joe Biden then you're just hyper partisan.

Boris deserves all the criticism too However he wasn't in any way able to act independently. We need to make sure we can do so on modest scales.

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.

Leon said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

My guess.

Biden has to deploy a huge force now to just hold the airport area. Massive evacuations. A three day operation.

For other nations it's much the same if there's scale. If not, suppose the UK is left alone then special forces to get the nationals over the border into Pakistan.

How feasible is it to have an operation to hold an international airport for a few days? Presumably you need to keep the runway to get the cargo planes in and out. Other people on here know more about this than me, but surely the runway could just be blown up and then its all over?

Maybe they already did.

I have NO idea if this is true, but his feed is interesting



Warren Platts
@WarrenPlatts
@zerohedge
Scoop for you: Kabul airport just got overran about 20 minutes ago..

https://twitter.com/WarrenPlatts/status/1426946659783790601?s=20

That seems quite possible. If the evacuation was going ahead, then you would presumably see more radar evidence of planes (as could be seen earlier today); that is unless the evacuation planes are flying in and out without any call sign.

Also this:

UPDATE U.S. Embassy in Kabul issues security alert: “Reports of the airport taking fire. Shelter in place. Do not come to the Embassy or airport at this time.”
UPDATE The runway is declared unsafe for landing due to possible mortar barrage.

https://twitter.com/stkki/status/1426950892134166528?s=20



"mortar barrage" - if true - is deeply ominous

I think Kabul airport only has one runway so if it's fucked then that's everything fucked

I'm not optimistic as things seem to have been going downhill extremely fast
It is realistic that we will be looking at thousands of western hostages (presumably including various ambassadors and diplomatic staff) and a massacre of Afghans.

And then there is this guy:
https://spectatorworld.com/topic/bit-of-a-pickle-meet-the-british-student-stuck-on-holiday-in-kabul/

Stuartinromford said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.

Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.

He really is Pep Fraudiola.

Leon said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

My guess.

Biden has to deploy a huge force now to just hold the airport area. Massive evacuations. A three day operation.

For other nations it's much the same if there's scale. If not, suppose the UK is left alone then special forces to get the nationals over the border into Pakistan.

How feasible is it to have an operation to hold an international airport for a few days? Presumably you need to keep the runway to get the cargo planes in and out. Other people on here know more about this than me, but surely the runway could just be blown up and then its all over?

Maybe they already did.

I have NO idea if this is true, but his feed is interesting



Warren Platts
@WarrenPlatts
@zerohedge
Scoop for you: Kabul airport just got overran about 20 minutes ago..

https://twitter.com/WarrenPlatts/status/1426946659783790601?s=20

That seems quite possible. If the evacuation was going ahead, then you would presumably see more radar evidence of planes (as could be seen earlier today); that is unless the evacuation planes are flying in and out without any call sign.

Also this:

UPDATE U.S. Embassy in Kabul issues security alert: “Reports of the airport taking fire. Shelter in place. Do not come to the Embassy or airport at this time.”
UPDATE The runway is declared unsafe for landing due to possible mortar barrage.

https://twitter.com/stkki/status/1426950892134166528?s=20



"mortar barrage" - if true - is deeply ominous

I think Kabul airport only has one runway so if it's fucked then that's everything fucked

And this where the lack of local airpower is a problem. The British & the US have come with artillery location radar but you got have something to fire back. The assumption the Marines or 82nd airbone have brought some brigade level field guns but the lack of a proper attack helicopter force is an issue. On paper the US could still deploy more troops and just widen the cordon. Forget about the UK, they couldnt muster enough inbound air transport to get a battlion and their kit in place over 3 days so no likely further commitment thanthat announced

Just as a note, there are other small scale evacuations and operations carrying on elsewhere in Afghanistan, largely run by the CIA going north to Uzbekistan. There is no doubt the CIA and DIA contacts with those willing to resist out in the countryside are ongoing.

Sean_F said:

Trump and Biden have proved themselves both frivolous and reckless. If there is a massacre in Kabul, I think this will doom Biden’s Presidency.

Will Americans care?

Vast swathes of them think the vaccine is a liberal plot, that wearing a mask makes you communist, and that white people should do a ceremonial mass suicide to repent for past crimes. They are deranged.

IshmaelZ said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

Can I just point out the derivation is helico (whirly, like a helix) pter (wing, as in pterodactyl), so copter is a barbarous abbreviation?

Thanks, noted, and a genuinely interesting titbit. But I'm going for some GI cred and they used to call them 'copters in Nam. That's the very Nam where that fabled evacuation took place. In 'gon.

God, it has been great having fans back in stadia.

RochdalePioneers said:

Omnium said:

Stuartinromford said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.

Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.

And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.

I agree. This is a huge moment of peril for Boris.

(I don't really want to agree, but I concede the argument)

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

The BBC live blog has a new video of Johnson up. If it was anyone else I'd suggest he looked like he'd been crying.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

He really is Pep Fraudiola.

That’s very good

Plucky performance by Man City.

If they could just get a few quid to spend, they might be able to get a draw at Spurs some day.

https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1426958046174060547

I'm going to just post with a smile. What sort of a header was this!!

Alphabet_Soup said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

POLL: Did Western involvement in Afghanistan achieve anything?

✅ Yes: 23%
❌ No: 53%

Amongst Labour voters:

✅ Yes: 20%
❌ No: 56%

Via
@YouGov
, 13 August 2021

Jezza voted against intervention in 2011

No idea which way the useless nonentity voted but if he was in Parliament it would likely have been pro intervention

And of course not only would the Taliban already still be in Kabul but Bin Laden would still be in the country as would Al Qaeda had there been no invasion.

The mistake was not the invasion, the mistake is the withdrawal which will reopen it to terrorists again

You are wrong of course as usual.

Unjust military interventions just make matters worse.

Just as Ken Clarke stated prior to the Iraq invasion

Afghanistan and Iraq 2 are completely different.

America invaded Afghanistan because America had been attacked - outrageously - by terrorists based in Afghanistan. ie 9/11. America could not just "do nothing". No country would let itself be assaulted like that without response.

So Afghanistan was rightfully invaded, the Taliban were routed, Al Q were scattered: job done. As I say below at that point America should have quit, but leaving behind the warning that any more global terror and they'd be back to bomb Afghanistan into the Neolithic

The mistake was in trying to remake Afghanistan as a liberal western-loving country, the occupation was a terrible error. Occupations usually are.

Iraq 2 was a just a grievous error from the get go

The loss of 2,977 lives to violence in America justifies "bombing Afghanistan into the Neolithic"?

The fact you trot this out so easily indicates that you place a very low value on Afghan lives cf Americans.

But I guess you wouldn't argue that point. So at least there's no artifice there.

2977 lives lost on 9/11 was just the opening skirmish in a projected holy war. How many more would have been lost if the US hadn't moved decisively against AQ? Waiting calmly for the next attack wasn't an option.

It most certainly was an option and I'd hope it was rigorously assessed before being (rightly imo) rejected.

Logic being the Western way and all.

StuartDickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Breach of the Trades Description Act. This isn’t a thread about Scotland, it’s a thread about sub-samples.

Wrong, it is based on fully weighted polls of Scotland, England, and Wales.

The Scotland sample size is 1,002.

Not true. The Wales and Scotland samples were separate and correctly weighted, but the England sample (strangely) wasn’t: it was part of a sample of GB adults, and nowhere does it state that the England sub-sample was correctly weighted.

It was, the England poll was part of a GB wide poll but then reweighted accordingly.

The unweighted sample for England was 1,414 and the weighted sample was 1,417.

Now I'm going to guess YouGov know their polls and weighting better than you.

Nope. That’s not the same thing as correctly weighting a sub-sample. YouGov tables always have that Weighted/Unweighted bar across the top of all their sub-sample columns. That says diddly squat about whether or not that particular sub-sample was separately weighted correctly.

Funnily enough, YouGov have on one or two occasions let slip that they do routinely correctly weight their Scottish sub-samples, but nowhere on tables does it ever explicitly say that, and it certainly doesn’t say it on the published tables for that England sub-sample.

After all the flak I’ve received on here in nearly two decades, I’ve learnt a thing or two about sub-samples. Shame the mods haven’t (unless and until we see correspondence from the polling agency explicitly stating that “the England poll was part of a GB wide poll but then reweighted accordingly”.)

You're wrong. I've asked YouGov.

Yokes said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

darkage said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

If the Taliban have broken their agreement and are bombing/attacking the airport then WTF

America will have to go back in with a huge show of power

Easier said than done, given they’ve just dismantled their logistics and can barely keep control of their own embassy. It’s too late.

Just a thought

What if Biden expected this outcome and was prepared to take the consequences, rather than be involved indefinitely in Afghanistan

I am not saying he did but maybe his advisors did

They really did not expect this immediate chaos and humiliation. Helicopters on the bloody roof of the embassy! No sane politician would willingly bring this on.

Biden explicitly denied this would happen, right down to the choppers, about a month ago

They fucked it up

"This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President."

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1426710333264179214?s=20

This is about the the worst political fuck-up ever.

That about sums it up. If the airport goes, which it looks like it might, what exactly happens then?

My guess.

Biden has to deploy a huge force now to just hold the airport area. Massive evacuations. A three day operation.

For other nations it's much the same if there's scale. If not, suppose the UK is left alone then special forces to get the nationals over the border into Pakistan.

How feasible is it to have an operation to hold an international airport for a few days? Presumably you need to keep the runway to get the cargo planes in and out. Other people on here know more about this than me, but surely the runway could just be blown up and then its all over?

Maybe they already did.

I have NO idea if this is true, but his feed is interesting



Warren Platts
@WarrenPlatts
@zerohedge
Scoop for you: Kabul airport just got overran about 20 minutes ago..

https://twitter.com/WarrenPlatts/status/1426946659783790601?s=20

That seems quite possible. If the evacuation was going ahead, then you would presumably see more radar evidence of planes (as could be seen earlier today); that is unless the evacuation planes are flying in and out without any call sign.

Also this:

UPDATE U.S. Embassy in Kabul issues security alert: “Reports of the airport taking fire. Shelter in place. Do not come to the Embassy or airport at this time.”
UPDATE The runway is declared unsafe for landing due to possible mortar barrage.

https://twitter.com/stkki/status/1426950892134166528?s=20



"mortar barrage" - if true - is deeply ominous

I think Kabul airport only has one runway so if it's fucked then that's everything fucked

And this where the lack of local airpower is a problem. The British & the US have come with artillery location radar but you got have something to fire back. The assumption the Marines or 82nd airbone have brought some brigade level field guns but the lack of a proper attack helicopter force is an issue. On paper the US could still deploy more troops and just widen the cordon. Forget about the UK, they couldnt muster enough inbound air transport to get a battlion and their kit in place over 3 days so no likely further commitment thanthat announced

Just as a note, there are other small scale evacuations and operations carrying on elsewhere in Afghanistan, largely run by the CIA going north to Uzbekistan. There is no doubt the CIA and DIA contacts with those willing to resist out in the countryside are ongoing.

This video might interest you. Seems to be another glimpse of Kabul airport, and I can see one or two military vehicles. APCs? Tiny little tanks?

Who are they? Can you tell? Some reports say the Turks are in charge of Kabul airport security, I have no idea if that is true, or why

https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1426951289611620356?s=20

RochdalePioneers said:

Omnium said:

Stuartinromford said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.

Biden has massively fucked up here. There might be fault elsewhere, but this is simply the worst political disaster ever. Worse than George III.

And Boris Johnson. Doing the exact same thing as Biden. You cannot criticise Biden and not Johnson without being a total hypocrite.

It's going to be entertaining seeing the BJers using the 'we had no choice' excuse, essentially admitting that we're barely a damp patch on the US's imperial thrashing about without a smidgeon of influence. Of course BJ was happily parroting the Taliban no threat line only a month ago.

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?

NATO are only allowing military flights to go in and out now, at the airport. There's going to have to be a lot of them.

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Stuartinromford said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.

Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame


The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office

The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity

Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.

The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

I think there is a fallacy in there somewhere - possibly in treating the electorate as a single bloc with a unified view of foreign policy.

It means a clear majority. I think that's acceptable shorthand. Just so long as one doesn't drift into the dreaded 'Will of The People' territory.

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?

I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?

I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.

It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Stuartinromford said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Gallowgate said:

Leon said:

Jesus. Absolute chaos at Kabul airport


"Scenes from #Kabul Airport, #Afghanistan showing people boarding what appears to a C17 (please correct me if wrong) and what appears to be gunfire in the air in the distance."

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1426947997104054277?s=20


Again, more iconically bad images for Biden

It's just f*cking embarrassing

And so sad. Imagine the terror in that airport right now. A lot of people will know that if they can't get out of the country ASAFP then the Taliban will find them, torture them, and kill them

It did not have to be like this, even if Biden WAS determined to do his stupid withdrawal

Trump's withdrawal.

This is on both of them. Trump AND Biden. But Biden will get more blame because he ordered this withdrawal in this insane manner (against, it seems, the advice of many of his military experts)

BIden's judgement on this has been poor certainly, but Trump wanted them out even sooner and faster.

I would say it's primarily on Trump, but with Biden also sharing a smaller proportion of the responsibility.

More importantly, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped.

It's how the Gods punish those who seek power.

Yes, that's a profound truth of politics. Even if some disaster isn't all your fault, if it happens on your watch, tough shit, you get the blame


The ERM debacle was the culmination of bipartisan policy to peg the £ to the DM as a run up to euro membership. John Major wasn't entirely to blame, but his government got ALL the blame as it happened when they were in office

The voters never forgave them and gave them an enormous kicking at the next available electoral opportunity

Ditto, and much less importantly, the Millenium Dome. Crap Tory idea which came to symbolise New Labour vacuity.

The outer structure of The Dome was a very good idea - as evinced by the fact that's it's a world-class concert venue to this day. Those stupid 'zones' that Peter Mandelson put inside it were the crap bit.

Structure = engineers.

Content, not so much.

Leon said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?

I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.

It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday

Yes, this is looking utterly terrible for Biden. It's seems that the Democratics are in some way mesmerized by the isolationism of Trump - they slept walked in withdrawal simple because they vaguely assumed it would play well with rednecks. I can think of no other explanation. Trump's will influence will haunt American politics for years to come. What a debacle.

More chaotic scenes at Kabul airport. Tho no signs of gunfire, mortars, etc


The fact the video shows commercial planes (now prohibited) suggests the video was taken hours earlier

https://twitter.com/AadeshGindodiya/status/1426963560580608008?s=20

Aslan said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?

I think I’ll stick with “Sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us”.

Most Americans think, rightly or wrongly, that there are failed states all over the world run by terrorists that hate them. The idea that we should occupy them forever is still unpopular.

The US occupied West Germany for nigh on 50 years and that was a resounding success.

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

What the hell is going on in Afghanistan? Did Biden think he’s just abandon the place to the Taliban, as opposed to being in the slightest bit organised about withdrawing troops?

The American troops left on the qt, so this was Al ays inevitable.

However, Trump announced the withdrawal last year so Biden was an is in a complete no win situation.

Keep the troops there and the GOP would criticise everyday hand injury, leave and suffer the pain and embarrassment of leaving.

By doing it now through it will be forgotten before the next election comes along.

Of course it was always going to be a tricky situation to manage, but pretty much any way would have been better than having to land Chinooks on the roof of your own embassy to get the diplomats out.

Those photos will define Biden’s presidency, it’s reminiscent of the fall of Saigon five decades ago, as the American troops fled Vietnam in defeat.

The Saigon comparison is being overcooked imo. Ok, so there's a copter. What I don't see is it taking off the roof of the embassy amidst scenes of utter chaos with people hanging on for grim death to the undercarriage with their legs dangling in the air. And whether you agree or disagree with the withdrawal, the notion that this final leg of it, following his predecessor's plan and with public support, will define and condemn Joe Biden's presidency is absurd. Is it co-incidence that those pronouncing that it will are all people who were rather disappointed he beat Trump in the election? I think not.

You're completely wrong. The photos of the two "chinooky" choppers on both US embassies - Saigon, Kabul - are now going absolutely viral

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633?s=20

And Biden is being savaged by his OWN side. From CNN to the NYT

"Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html

Yep, we have photos of copters. It's too tempting for many. Hence instant received wisdom is created. "It's Saigon all over again!". Will last a few days.

And, sure, he's upsetting some "muscular" liberal types on his side of the political fence who are seeking either to rewrite history or start from a different place or imagine into being a different American public, but they'll soon be writing about other things.

The bottom line is this decision is driven by US domestic political calculation and it's not obviously flawed. We'll see how it pans out but for now I'll take Biden's judgment on that over yours, H's, Sandpit's et al any day of the week. I think one has to.

When the US Secretary of State is being asked if scenes from Kabul remind him of Saigon, then the comparison is sticking.

Vietnam still very much resonates in the USA, even nearly five decades later, as one of America’s biggest screw-ups. The pictures of the Chinooks in Kabul today are identical to those from the fall of Saigon in 1975, when the world’s superpower was forced to retreat. Those pictures are already on every front page and TV screen, and can’t be unseen.

I'm not saying this isn't a big and bad story for Joe Biden. It's certainly the 1st and (right now) the 2nd too. What I'm taking issue with is the ludicrous assertions of his presidency being defined and doomed by it. And I'm sorry but I can't help noticing that most of this is coming from people who have been strikingly jaundiced against Biden for a long time.

LBJ and Nixon and Ford were defined by Vietnam ( LBJ by civil rights and the Great Society and Nixon by Watergate too), Carter by the Iran hostage crisis, Reagan by setting the stage to end the Cold War, Bush 41 by the Gulf War and breaking his tax pledge, Bill Clinton by Monica, Dubya by 9/11 and his response to it, Obama by being the first black president and Obamacare, Trump by his failure on Covid.

Biden will almost certainly be defined by this unless he does something spectacular in the rest of his term

This is the final leg of the withdrawal the American public want. The Taliban back in power in Afghanistan is priced in. It's only the 7th month of his presidency. He is implementing the plan of his predecessor. Based on all logic - a Western specialty per Leon - this is unlikely to define his term in office and even less likely to doom him at the polls should he seek a 2nd term.

The American public want mutually exclusive things - they might want American troops out of Afghanistan, but sure as hell don’t want the place to become a failed state run by terrorists who hate us.

It’s the job of the politicians to thread the needle, to work through what’s possible and sell it to the public. It’s clear that both the incumbent president and his predecessor have screwed this one up massively.

Isn't it too early to know what the American public think about this?

I think reading the minds of the US public is a mere bagatelle for the experts of PB.

It doesn't take a world class phrenologist to deduce that these terrible images and stories will not play well for Joe Biden, even if he is enjoying his holiday

Yes, this is looking utterly terrible for Biden. It's seems that the Democratics are in some way mesmerized by the isolationism of Trump - they slept walked in withdrawal simple because they vaguely assumed it would play well with rednecks. I can think of no other explanation. Trump's will influence will haunt American politics for years to come. What a debacle.

Yes, I think Americans will look at isolationism differently for years after this, as they did after the Iranian hostage-taking episode.