MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER? – politicalbetting.com
MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER? – politicalbetting.com
Source: Wikipedia – data tables can be viewed here.
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Congratulations to BMX gold medallist Charlotte Worthington btw.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1421676734664036357
That is two gold medals for British women in BMX, which is why SPotY betting is not straightforward.
Golf: letting bets run has developed badly. Xander Schauffele has extended his lead and "local hero" Hideki Matsuyama has dropped back.
Boris does seem to be enjoying the job. Money might be a problem but until the rest of the world opens up and he can easily travel to and from high-paying gigs in the United States in particular but perhaps also the Far East, there is not much that can be done about it, and even with a second child on the way (congratulations to Carrie and Boris) that probably remains the case. Can a donor pay for childcare? No school fees yet, at least!
Against that, is that the party will be ruthless if they think the next election is in doubt, and the PM himself is struggling to get by on his ministerial salary - he’s an ex-wife and school fees to pay, and a new wife with expensive tastes.
I guess he needs to find a publisher willing to advance him a million or two up front, for a book to be written several years from now.
After all, Bath did actually accept office, unlike Wellington who specifically refused it.
As if Donald Trump had a mind.
It is not the same as Donald Trump who won only a single election, and was deluded to think he could not lose.
One thing I did do differently was to count the first and last days as half days.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-urged-justice-dept-overturn-vote-results-house-panel-chair-2021-07-30/
I’m not sure Trump running in 2024 is value.
But I do take your point about things like history and politics.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9847871/Left-wing-football-pundit-Gary-Neville-groomed-political-career-Sir-Keir-Starmer.html
Stranger things have happened.
F1: will start hunting for bets soon.
As an aside, started playing Valkyria Chronicles 4 (Japanese game set in 'not Europe') and amused that the land of Edinburgh is renowned for providing the best troops of the Federation and taking the lead in the Second Europan [no typo] War against the Empire, who are just a little bit Nazi-ish.
Boris has the status, and courtesy of the tax-payer enjoys a lifestyle far above what he could afford.
But on the other hand, and without rehashing earlier comments, there is no programme of Borisism he needs to complete. He might be identified with levelling up but the idea and drive probably came from Dominic Cummings. Brexit is done as a fact, and the details of protracted negotiations are beyond the Prime Minister. Covid has been tamed by vaccines, where again Boris can claim some credit. What else is there to achieve?
Then there is age. Boris is already significantly older than either Cameron or Blair when they left office, although the example of his own father means Boris might not fear the grim reaper any time soon.
Will Boris cut and run? The FTPA is hardly a bar – we have already had two early general elections – and is to be dismantled in any case. But however bad Starmer does in the opinion polls, Boris will surely be aware of Theresa May having misplaced a polling lead of ten points during the 2017 campaign.
So yes, I still expect Boris to retire before the next election, though not sure enough to rush down to Corals.
Betting PostF1: backed Bottas each way to win at 9 (third the odds top two).
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/08/hungary-pre-race-2021.html
As an ex-PM, Johnson will be able to earn considerably more than he does now, assuming he doesn't follow Trump down a ludicrous rabbit-hole of not really having lost. And he needs to since both he and his current wife both appear to have expensive tastes which need a considerable income to support, as well of course as his obligations to his various ex-wives and growing children.
On the other hand, he does seem to enjoy, much of the time anyway, being a front-line politician. And, as such he's able to call upon friends and supporters to assist with his lifestyle.
So I think he'll stay as long as he can, although if the polls turn against the Tories he might go. I don't think the details of whatever is proposed to replace the FTPA have been published, and IIRC they specifically repealed the legislation that required an election to be held no longer than five years after the previous one.
Subject, as always, to a black swan appearing.
Off topic, have we heard how the festivities in N Wales went?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/940027/Draft-Fixed-term-Parliaments-Act-Repeal-Bill.pdf
He is also about to run out of luck. Not least, the equity markets are long overdue a major correction.
Consoling myself with the thought that when one does run out of luck after en extended run the fall is often harder.
Sadly, normal rules don't seem to apply to our current PM.
Verstappen 6 for the DNF also looks good value, there’s got to be a chance he gets a little hot-headed, and it’s almost certain that Bottas has been told not to give him an inch.
‘Scotland's most striking castle on tiny remote island for sale at just £1’
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/scotlands-most-striking-castle-tiny-21194439.amp
Hate to be pedantic, but that headline is riddled with porkies:
1. it is not a “castle”, it is a late Victorian estate house
2. it is not “striking”, it is horrifically ugly and completely out of place in its environment
3. in a list of Scotland’s “most striking” structures, it wouldn’t make the top 5000
4. Rum is not tiny; it is the largest island in its archipelago
5. It is not for sale (even the article itself explicitly says that “Kinloch Castle is not currently on the open market for sale”)
6. It does not cost £1
So, in summary, the only remotely truthful assertion is that Rum is “remote”, although even that is nonsense if you happen to live in Eigg, Skye or Mallaig. And “remoteness” is a function of demography, politics and fashions in transportation. Rum was very central if you were a competent seafarer during the Lordship of the Isles.
This is the very peak of junk journalism. A primary school child could write a better article. The culprit? The despicable Reach plc. What a bunch of chancers.
I also see no particular reason why interest rates should rise significantly. Many or most governments, businesses and individuals are more heavily indebted than ever because of the pandemic. What incentive is there for central banks to strangle their economies by cranking up the cost of servicing those debts?
I'd didn't know he'd bunned up Carrie Antoinette again. She'd better start putting buttstuff on the menu or otherwise homebody is just going to keep breeding.
Better might be a loan, but who would want to loan cash to someone who’s known to be terrible at managing his money? Does he own a house somewhere that he can mortgage?
And “elsewhere” does not have to be equity.
Inflation is coming, but everyone’s got used to interest rates at barely zero, and are going to convince themselves that the spike is temporary and we’ll be back to normal (for 2010-2019) in a couple of years, so they don’t need to rise.
"Your mind will take the shape of what you frequently think about, for the human spirit is coloured by such impressions." - Marcus Aurelius.
You have been warned.
And there is nowhere else to go, apart from sovereign bonds which will simply serve to continue to depress yields. If, theoretically, everyone tried to pile into property there wouldn't be enough of it in the world to meet the demand.
Any post-pandemic burst of inflation is liable to be temporary. The future is Japan: low inflation, low growth, rock bottom interest rates.
And why this place is currently not worth visiting. I'll be back once Boris departs. Be about 8 years, I reckon.....
Johnson on the vinegars must be quite something.
Boris Derangement Syndrome? Very good.
I find him annoying, but it seems to work politically or him. That's what works up his enemies most.
And I won't get that exercised about him.
According to the ONS here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895233/Surveillance_Influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2019_to_2020_FINAL.pdf#page=54
22,000 people died of flu in the bad 2017/18 season in England. But that's an estimate using the FluMOMO algorithm.
Population adjusted that would be the equivalent to 2143 flu deaths in Scotland
However National Records Scotland keeps a record of "Mentions flu of the Death certificate" exactly the same as they are currently doing "mentions Covid on the death certificate" and their record for the 2017/18 season was approx 500 flu deaths.
That's a huge difference.
This leads to a number of questions:
Does anyone know why we use the FluMOMO numbers when reporting Flu deaths rather than death certificates?
What does this mean for determining that Covid is now "no worse than Flu", if you use FluMOMO figures then you can have quite a lot of deaths and be similar, if you use death certificates than you need to more than quarter the number of deaths to be similar
Yes, BoZo enrages his enemies, and engorges his fans, but he does nothing for the undecided...
Dylin's humping, chain gangs litter-picking, inept elbow bumping, and The Saga of The Umbrella That Just Would Not Open.
This full-length Mr Bean episode is Johnson's frantic reaction to polls finally beginning to catch up to his incompetence and venality. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1421445476231127040/photo/1
It's precisely the moment the tide began to turn against Trump. He left 'safe' Republican areas vulnerable by performing to his fans. Those who liked him, loved it. Those who were already dubious, cringed. That was the time for flipping them. Johnson is going down the same route.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1421448413925810177
Good header, though.
er ... 69th.
They don't like him especially, they like that we don't.
Like Cummings on Brexit, he doesn't think it was a good idea, but he hated people who thought it was a bad idea.
Spite is no basis to pick a government, but it is where we are.
I do find obsessing about Boris and Carrie relationship rather tedious, and to be fair she had suffered a miscarriage which is a very upsetting event as my own daughter can affirm
However, turning to happier times my sons wedding to his long term partner yesterday was just perfect and their two children delightful, not least their 7 year old son walking up the aisle in his formal smaller version wedding suit proudly carrying the rings
The church service was perfect despite covid restrictions on hymn singing, but the organist rendition of one of the hymns in Welsh moved everyone
The reception in the marquee worked a treat, and it may surprise some but we had guests from Scotland , England and Wales and there was wide consensus that all the politicians should have acted together and the political point scoring between the administrations was simply unacceptable
No matter, politics was not on the agenda and it was just a happy and joyous day for each and everyone
At this stage, the overall British team performance is about level with Australia and Japan on total medals, but they have more golds and we have more silvers.
Dumping turd all over a country because it annoys people you do not like is a funny kind of patriotism, isn't it?
Unlike Marina, who appeared to be a fairly decent type who foolishly married Boris, Carrie deserves everything she gets. She's a foul and horrible woman, who appears to have married Boris for one reason only - so she can be the power behind the throne.
Affirming a belief in one set of principles your whole life and then espousing the opposite when a charismatic charlatan comes along might well be.
Five hours or so until the race starts.
As I've said before on here, I don't mind his lack of morals or principles. Men with cast-iron convictions can be dangerous when they reach the top, unless those convictions include democracy. Better a pragmatist than a dictator. Strength of purpose isn't always good. Pol Pot and Stalin had plenty of that.
He's a bit of a twat, but that's not a hanging offence.
He'll go once the Tories lost their glitter and the opposition not only listen but also take note. They all do that eventually. Bring back Kinnock.