Olympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

not_on_fire said:

Maffew said:

One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.

Unless this trainee has reported her result to Test & Trace there’s no legal requirement for you to isolate. So really not fair of you to blame this person.

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

Jonathan said:

Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.

Leon said:

Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.

Leon said:

Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.

Bearing in mind the average age of those athletes, that would make them more sensible than their non Olympian peers.

Scott_xP said:

The Times reports that the PM’s attempt to dodge self-isolation was his idea. 👇🏼

“It came from Boris,” a source said. “Nobody thought it was a good idea.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/99033f18-eb92-11eb-baaa-861dba20d87a?shareToken=1d89b716eb95a32231a97aa01f741681

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dutch rower Finn Florijn, who was due to take part in the men's single sculls repechage race, has tested positive for coronavirus,

I'm not particularly into the Olympics, but I do feel sorry for people who may have trained all their lives for this, only to have it moved by a year, and then to get Covid and miss it. Even if they're not jabbed.

Apparently one of the cyclists from a developing country was even worse, he desperately tried to get jabbed for months, and inbetween tried to stay away from everybody. Tested positive a couple of weeks before the games, next day got offer for his vaccination.

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

The Times reports that the PM’s attempt to dodge self-isolation was his idea. 👇🏼

“It came from Boris,” a source said. “Nobody thought it was a good idea.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/99033f18-eb92-11eb-baaa-861dba20d87a?shareToken=1d89b716eb95a32231a97aa01f741681

Or it came from Carrie?

"I'm not being stuck in self isolation for two weeks in that pokey flat listening to you yelling 'Action this day!' at Zoom all day long."

Under the rules she wouldn't be required to self isolate.

StuartDickson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cocky_cockney said:

I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.

You wanted Boris to take those penalities?

I want to see him on his knees

before PM Gove

Yeuuugh

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

We started with Pfizer, AZ came in January. I’d be extremely cautious about these Israel numbers. Evidence elsewhere in bigger populations does not support this. It’s not an official report.
We will be boosting into the autumn.
I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.

Dura_Ace said:

OldKingCole said:

Don't over-dramatise.

Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.

On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.

alex_ said:

I've watched Olympic road races before, and it amazes me how often the commentators, for supposed experts, seem to get things completely wrong.

Northern_Al said:

If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.

I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.

If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?

Roger said:

Dura_Ace said:

OldKingCole said:

Don't over-dramatise.

Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.

On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.

Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap

Maffew said:

NickPalmer said:

Maffew said:

One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.

No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.

Wind your neck in there. I have no decision to make as I don't even know this person. The impact on me is entirely indirect and I've already made new plans.

Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).

Northern_Al said:

If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.

I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.

If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Oxford and AZ may have the last laugh then, if the rapid waning of Pfizer turns out to be real.

It won’t. Why should it. Yes the vaccines are different but both have primed the bodies immune system, and it’s that which gives the immunity.
And once again, antibodies are not the whole extent of the immune system.

kle4 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.

Nah he called it right. Enough is enough and he's a leader not a follow right now, good for him, just what the PM should be.

Too often we get opinion poll led "leadership". That's not what we need right now.

That's true, but its unusual for him given the hysterics Tories seem to get at narrow leads, let alone bring behind.

Philip_Thompson said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

We started with Pfizer, AZ came in January. I’d be extremely cautious about these Israel numbers. Evidence elsewhere in bigger populations does not support this. It’s not an official report.
We will be boosting into the autumn.
I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.

The thing is there's no reason to pay any extra attention to Israeli data. Israel have administered 11 million doses, the UK has administered 83 million doses. Our data is much firmer than their data.

Plus we've followed a different dosing regimen that there's reason to believe will give better long-term immunity. At no stage has Israel ever administered more doses than the UK has - so the Israeli data was more interesting as to 'herd' effects early on before we'd done everyone, but its rather meaningless now.

Leon said:

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

Fair enough, that’s more encouraging

I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

Fair enough, that’s more encouraging

I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?

I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 38% (-6)
LAB: 34% (+3)

via @YouGov
, 20 - 21 Jul
Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

Now that is a significant poll.

I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.

I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.

Fairliered said:

alex_ said:

Maffew said:

NickPalmer said:

Maffew said:

One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.

No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.

Wind your neck in there. I have no decision to make as I don't even know this person. The impact on me is entirely indirect and I've already made new plans.

Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).

I suspect, in a similar vein, that there are pubs etc, where landlords are appealing to staff to do things like turn off the app to avoid pingdemics, but are dependent on the attitude of their staff to agree.

This may be a time when the benefits of being a good boss, or a firm with a positive attitude to staff relations, will pay off. Work for someone you respect, come into work. Work for an arsehole, stay off as long as possible.

Leon said:

There are horrible videos coming out of Thailand. Some, allegedly, show people collapsing in the street from Covid, and later dying. Just like the original scary videos from Wuhan

turbotubbs said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

Fair enough, that’s more encouraging

I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?

I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?

Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.

kinabalu said:

turbotubbs said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

Fair enough, that’s more encouraging

I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?

I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?

Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.

Ah right, thanks. It did sound a bit flaky. But Leon - who for all his demerits is a genuine PB virushead - seemed to be giving it some credence and that worried me slightly.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The Tory percentage is crashing through the floor! Into the mid 30s next!

turbotubbs said:

kinabalu said:

turbotubbs said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

not_on_fire said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From the discussion with @bigben last night:

I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.

What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

Another Israeli thread:


‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21

There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?

Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

Who knows. But I know this:

1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon

No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.

Fair enough, that’s more encouraging

I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?

I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?

Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.

Ah right, thanks. It did sound a bit flaky. But Leon - who for all his demerits is a genuine PB virushead - seemed to be giving it some credence and that worried me slightly.

He swings between hope and despair to easily. Needs more calm appraisal of all the data.

Leon said:

Razedabode said:

Leon said:

If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21

This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.

And ignore Dr Eric

Yes yes

These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE

However other experts are taking this very seriously

This guy is from MIT

‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’

So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) =
1.8 * (1 - 0.42) =
1.02
😮!

The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution.
Hello March 2020.’

https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500153070686220?s=21

Northern_Al said:

If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.

I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.

If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?

rottenborough said:

Oxford and AZ may have the last laugh then, if the rapid waning of Pfizer turns out to be real.

another_richard said:

Northern_Al said:

If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.

I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.

If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?

If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear.

Especially if covid is still hitting other countries - in Europe, USA, possibly Australia - hard.

bigben said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Razedabode said:

Leon said:

If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21

This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.

And ignore Dr Eric

Yes yes

These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE

However other experts are taking this very seriously

This guy is from MIT

‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’

So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) =
1.8 * (1 - 0.42) =
1.02
😮!

The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution.
Hello March 2020.’

https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500153070686220?s=21

Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.

A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.

I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.

I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.

Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year

bigben said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Razedabode said:

Leon said:

If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21

This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.

And ignore Dr Eric

Yes yes

These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE

However other experts are taking this very seriously

This guy is from MIT

‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’

So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) =
1.8 * (1 - 0.42) =
1.02
😮!

The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution.
Hello March 2020.’

https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500153070686220?s=21

Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.

A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.

I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.

I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.

Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year

Northern_Al said:

If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.

I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.

If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?