Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
The political reason is that they don’t want to discriminate based on vaccine status, until everyone has been offered the vaccine. Which will be around 16th August, for two jabs.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
You might well be correct.
In general organisations and policies develop their own momentum and are difficult to 'switch off'.
Direct contacts haven’t had to isolate for a while now just go through the testing process.
Masks were brought back in Wednesday in shops etc.
Nightclubs closed and no standing in bars until September.
Now they have announced that positive Covid people are allowed out for two hours a day on their own to exercise and get fresh air but must wear masks if in vicinity of others and aren’t allowed in shops etc but at least not stuck in their rooms....
Cases have been around 300 new per day for a couple of weeks out of population around 110,000.
Only recent death sadly was unvaccinated man in late 40’s who was very much an anti-vaxxer.
Seems the jersey govt have just decided to let it rip and get it over with......
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Is it? We've got booster shots coming for at least JCVI groups 1-10 and probably everyone who wants one. Winter isn't going to change VE and delta seems to not give a shit about summer or winter.
If the Israel story about vaccines now being 16% effective in six months, then surely we should be seeing thousands of deaths there among the most vulnerable groups who were done first? That’s not happening.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear.
Especially if covid is still hitting other countries - in Europe, USA, possibly Australia - hard.
The media have helped set a nice low bar for the government.
There does seem to be a desire to ramp the worst possible scenario for the UK while assuming that other countries will have no problems.
There are horrible videos coming out of Thailand. Some, allegedly, show people collapsing in the street from Covid, and later dying. Just like the original scary videos from Wuhan
You wobbling like a jelly yet again. Social media is not good for you, look for some nice stories with pets etc and cheer yourself up.
Can I have some links for these videos leon. I know Asia is not doing well at the moment
I've seen one on a site for expats called Thaivisa. Had details of a case outside Bangkok, where a homeless man collapsed and later died, possibly Covid-related. In the same report there's this 'Several other people collapsed and died in the street in Bangkok this week with two testing positive for the virus.'
As I've mentioned earlier today, my son & his family, who live on the edge of Bangkok don't seem very concerned. Their phone calls and messages report shopping, visiting friends and even a few days down at the coast. He and his wife have been vaccinated, and there are reports of plenty of vaccine either being used, or on the way.
So polling conventional wisdom says it takes 3 days for "an event" to percolate into the polling.
The fieldwork for this You Gov is 3 days after the Boris/Sunak will they won't they self isolate farce.
This is identical to what happened with the wall paper Proud proclamation that no one cares. Point to immediate polls that don't have the reaction to the event in to prove that no-one cares. Shitting it when the polls start reflecting the event. Bold swagger once the even fades after 7 days.
Seven days is how long an even takes to work out if it is a blip.
The problem this time maybe, is events are rolling up like London buses. None for a while and then lots come at once
Johnson's bad behaviour comes and goes, and we forgive and forget. Empty shelves, difficulty obtaining fuel, bins not being emptied, cancelled holidays, should they gain traction stay in the mind for generations.
Voters who weren't even born in 1978/79 remember the Winter of Discontent.
If the Israel story about vaccines now being 16% effective in six months, then surely we should be seeing thousands of deaths there among the most vulnerable groups who were done first? That’s not happening.
That 16% figure relates to transmission. They still think VE among the very vulnerable against hospitalisation is 88%, once you take patient risk factors into account that's probably broadly similar to what we'd expect here at 98% for Pfizer.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Completely, utterly and totally disagree.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
Plausible. And there's irony here, it seems to me. At times when a robust TT&I app would have been really useful - to stamp out clusters in an overall low Covid environment - we didn't have one. Now, with the scenario not conducive to it adding value, indeed perhaps the opposite, we do.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
I think it was fair enough the dosing gap strategy being described as a risk, I was against the idea until it was explained, but the nature of that risk did seem to be oddly put by some, given what was being said about how these things work for many vaccines. It was almost as though people assumed there was no basis for thinking spreading out the doses might work and it was a complete shot in the dark, when it seems like there were sound reasons for supposing it would, and taking the chance being worth it.
Well done to anyone who got on the Labour poll lead bet, you’ll be able to collect your winnings shortly
Unlikely. Still a four point lead, on the back of what might be an outlier or anyway temporary response to events. And if linked to doubts about "freedom day" might look a bit different if figures continue on current trend.
The time to congratulate people is when they actually collect...
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Completely, utterly and totally disagree.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
But the question can be flipped -
If you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, but are not really a Conservative, why would you vote Conservative again in 2024? - given Brexit is done and Jeremy Corbyn is on the allotment.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
Imagine the fury of many if the UK chose the right strategy of maximising first doses (a good thing) and lengthening the period between doses (a good thing).
Do you know which strategy each country has been following ?
The classic car market in general has been booming these past few years, a combination of a new generation of investors looking to buy cars of the ‘80s and ‘90s, and of a flight to assets as investments following the last recession. The art market has been the same, and we all regularly discuss the property market and stock market on here.
A 2010-13 550-2/560-4 manual Gallardo would be a very decent investment (as long you don't crash it). The last manual Ferraris have exploded in value and the Lambos will inevitably be next.
McLarens go the other way. The CEO of McLaren Automotive was selling his 720 and it lost nearly £100,000 in value in less than two years. Depreciating at a grand a week!
A £150k 2019 720S is an absolute bargain, faster than anything less than three times the price, and independent specialists such as Thorney Motorsport and Ian Litchfield are starting to work on them now, which will keep future running costs on McLarens down.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
The political reason is that they don’t want to discriminate based on vaccine status, until everyone has been offered the vaccine. Which will be around 16th August, for two jabs.
I may be missing something important, but the mood music around this decision mostly seems to have been that it's a vital public health measure which we cannot afford to let drop, as distinct from it somehow being to do with the care and the rights of people in their twenties. If the Government did anything specifically to prioritise the welfare of the young over the convenience of the old then it would probably be the first time.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
I think it was fair enough the dosing gap strategy being described as a risk, I was against the idea until it was explained, but the nature of that risk did seem to be oddly put by some, given what was being said about how these things work for many vaccines. It was almost as though people assumed there was no basis for thinking spreading out the doses might work and it was a complete shot in the dark, when it seems like there were sound reasons for supposing it would, and taking the chance being worth it.
Exactly right. The data we had was only for a three week gap, but there exists a huge pool of data on other vaccines that suggests a longer gap would be at least as good, and probably better. I can’t shake the view that some of the criticism was not actually about the science, rather it was Brexit/anti Boris/anti Tory.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Completely, utterly and totally disagree.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
But the question can be flipped -
If you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, but are not really a Conservative, why would you vote Conservative again in 2024? - given Brexit is done and Jeremy Corbyn is on the allotment.
There will be some like that. But are they outnumbered by those who may have made the jump for those reasons, but had been leaning that way for some time and don't feel a push to go back?
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
Canada also delayed the second shot (they had an 8 - 16 week gap between jabs) and they are showing good efficacy from the vaccines.
The United States gave the second dose at 3 weeks though. So if the short gap is the thing that is making the difference in Israel, it should be showing up in the USA as well. Is there any data from the US about this?
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
I think a lot of policy is being driven by the money spent on the response. I've no doubt that many of the policies on self testing using LFTs are, at least in part, influenced by the fact that we've spent multi billions on the test kits which simply have to be used to avoid the wrath of the National Audit Office.
Direct contacts haven’t had to isolate for a while now just go through the testing process.
Masks were brought back in Wednesday in shops etc.
Nightclubs closed and no standing in bars until September.
Now they have announced that positive Covid people are allowed out for two hours a day on their own to exercise and get fresh air but must wear masks if in vicinity of others and aren’t allowed in shops etc but at least not stuck in their rooms....
Cases have been around 300 new per day for a couple of weeks out of population around 110,000.
Only recent death sadly was unvaccinated man in late 40’s who was very much an anti-vaxxer.
Seems the jersey govt have just decided to let it rip and get it over with......
Ms Vance will no doubt be along soon to comment, but the situation in Guernsey and Alderney seems to be the exact opposite. An infected man came ashore from a yacht in Alderney harbour on the day of the UEFA Cup Final, and went to one of the (rammed) local pubs to watch the game. He and another crew member went to a busy restaurant a day or so later. Then he felt ill and was tested. Result several people fell ill and the whole of Alderney has been locked down. Everyone who was where the crew went has been told to have (I think) a PCR test.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
I think a lot of policy is being driven by the money spent on the response. I've no doubt that many of the policies on self testing using LFTs are, at least in part, influenced by the fact that we've spent multi billions on the test kits which simply have to be used to avoid the wrath of the National Audit Office.
Quite, but it seems the best use is not pointless twice a week tests at random, but targeted to daily tests of those who have been in contact with a known case. If I was in charge I’d change the policy immediately.
Leaving aside all the other stuff, one thing i don't get about this Israeli study is, unless i've misunderstood it, the extremely narrow difference between preventing infection and preventing symptomatic illness (39% vs 41% or something). That doesn't make any sense to me?
Direct contacts haven’t had to isolate for a while now just go through the testing process.
Masks were brought back in Wednesday in shops etc.
Nightclubs closed and no standing in bars until September.
Now they have announced that positive Covid people are allowed out for two hours a day on their own to exercise and get fresh air but must wear masks if in vicinity of others and aren’t allowed in shops etc but at least not stuck in their rooms....
Cases have been around 300 new per day for a couple of weeks out of population around 110,000.
Only recent death sadly was unvaccinated man in late 40’s who was very much an anti-vaxxer.
Seems the jersey govt have just decided to let it rip and get it over with......
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
Canada also delayed the second shot (they had an 8 - 16 week gap between jabs) and they are showing good efficacy from the vaccines.
The United States gave the second dose at 3 weeks though. So if the short gap is the thing that is making the difference in Israel, it should be showing up in the USA as well. Is there any data from the US about this?
I read somewhere that the Govt aren't publishing figures. Perhaps they show a bit of an issue, but it would be disastrous to release at exactly the time when they finally seem to be getting some buy in from Republican leaders and states to encourage vaccines among the unvaxxed.
So polling conventional wisdom says it takes 3 days for "an event" to percolate into the polling.
The fieldwork for this You Gov is 3 days after the Boris/Sunak will they won't they self isolate farce.
This is identical to what happened with the wall paper Proud proclamation that no one cares. Point to immediate polls that don't have the reaction to the event in to prove that no-one cares. Shitting it when the polls start reflecting the event. Bold swagger once the even fades after 7 days.
Seven days is how long an even takes to work out if it is a blip.
The problem this time maybe, is events are rolling up like London buses. None for a while and then lots come at once
Johnson's bad behaviour comes and goes, and we forgive and forget. Empty shelves, difficulty obtaining fuel, bins not being emptied, cancelled holidays, should they gain traction stay in the mind for generations.
Voters who weren't even born in 1978/79 remember the Winter of Discontent.
That's if they do come.
The media babbling about empty shelves makes them look ridiculous if the shelves in the local supermarkets are full.
And some middle class prat in London complaining that they cannot get a particular brand of balsamic in Waitrose is a source of amusement to much of the country.
Though I have a suspicion that bins not being emptied is a potential problem - suburbia produces a lot of garden waste in the summer.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
Imagine the fury of many if the UK chose the right strategy of maximising first doses (a good thing) and lengthening the period between doses (a good thing).
Do you know which strategy each country has been following ?
Canada followed our strategy. The US didn't but is already planning for a third dose. Around half of Europe did what we did and the other half didn't. Denmark used a 6-8 week gap pretty much from day one as well.
The sad part is that because the UK proposed it initially it got dismissed by the Brexit and Boris derangement wankers. The NY times and other leading international media took up the cause of shitting on the decision because the UK, since Brexit, is always wrong. I wonder how many deaths could have been prevented and would continue to be prevented if the whole world had listened to the actual argument being presented rather than just taken a default view of "UK is wrong, hate Boris, hate Brexit" and stuck to the 3 week gap.
The WHO are still doing it wrt our current argument that taking the exit wave in the summer is preferable to taking it in the winter. Those Northern hemisphere nations quietly chortling at our case rates are walking into a winter disaster.
The classic car market in general has been booming these past few years, a combination of a new generation of investors looking to buy cars of the ‘80s and ‘90s, and of a flight to assets as investments following the last recession. The art market has been the same, and we all regularly discuss the property market and stock market on here.
A 2010-13 550-2/560-4 manual Gallardo would be a very decent investment (as long you don't crash it). The last manual Ferraris have exploded in value and the Lambos will inevitably be next.
McLarens go the other way. The CEO of McLaren Automotive was selling his 720 and it lost nearly £100,000 in value in less than two years. Depreciating at a grand a week!
A £150k 2019 720S is an absolute bargain, faster than anything less than three times the price, and independent specialists such as Thorney Motorsport and Ian Litchfield are starting to work on them now, which will keep future running costs on McLarens down.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Which is why allowing Delta to seep through the country in the summer was the right decision.
Sweep?
Not if one happens to be in the small but unfortunate double vaxxed group that succumbs
I find this notion that collateral casualties are a price worth paying to an extent understandable (some die now to save more later) but also morally debatable. Particularly if I am unfortunate enough to fall into the vaxxed but unlucky category.
Now whenever I make a defensive point regarding Covid safety on here, which may be tacitly critical of government policy I am told to f*** off back to my cave, and self-isolate like all the other p******.
For what it's worth I am, for work, out there mixing it with the Great British unwashed.(who along with their poor hand hygiene are now allowed to cough all over me sans mask too).
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
The political reason is that they don’t want to discriminate based on vaccine status, until everyone has been offered the vaccine. Which will be around 16th August, for two jabs.
The simple answer to the discrimination problem is to allow unvaccinated out of isolation if they have a negative test for that day
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Completely, utterly and totally disagree.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
I'm not quite sure why you say you 'completely, utterly and totally disagree' with my comment, as what you've written doesn't seem out of kilter with what I'm saying. We're agreeing that electorates rally to support governments during a pandemic. All I'm saying is that if Covid disappears then the government is likely to get a (temporary) poll boost, but after that normal politics returns - or as I put it 'other matters will come into play'. And on Starmer, I'd agree that he needs to spell out a compelling reason for voting Labour. I think he will, and that he'll get a much more receptive audience once Covid doesn't have centre stage.
So despite your opening line, I agree with you, and I think you agree with me, mostly.
I'd be pretty surprised if Japan do as well as 538 are predicting. My guess is they are applying a standard home advantage, but we know from the Premier League (and others) that home advantage behind closed doors seems to be significantly reduced.
But note that it still starts by implying that people should wait to be called. Its very first sentence is: The NHS will let you know when it is your turn to get the COVID-19 vaccination.
Perhaps that is supposed to mean wait till your age-group comes up but as everyone over 18 is now in scope, this instruction is either redundant or leaves people waiting for a call which will never come.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
I think it was fair enough the dosing gap strategy being described as a risk, I was against the idea until it was explained, but the nature of that risk did seem to be oddly put by some, given what was being said about how these things work for many vaccines. It was almost as though people assumed there was no basis for thinking spreading out the doses might work and it was a complete shot in the dark, when it seems like there were sound reasons for supposing it would, and taking the chance being worth it.
Exactly right. The data we had was only for a three week gap, but there exists a huge pool of data on other vaccines that suggests a longer gap would be at least as good, and probably better. I can’t shake the view that some of the criticism was not actually about the science, rather it was Brexit/anti Boris/anti Tory.
Of course it was. Look at the opponents lining up against the logic behind the step 4 unlockdown. Those same self-satisfied wankers in the WHO and other organisations/media lecturing the government on dosing gaps are now doing it for our final unlockdown steps despite the scientific logic that says northern hemisphere nations need to unlock now while they can take the exit wave hit in the summer.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
Imagine the fury of many if the UK chose the right strategy of maximising first doses (a good thing) and lengthening the period between doses (a good thing).
Do you know which strategy each country has been following ?
Canada followed our strategy. The US didn't but is already planning for a third dose. Around half of Europe did what we did and the other half didn't. Denmark used a 6-8 week gap pretty much from day one as well.
The sad part is that because the UK proposed it initially it got dismissed by the Brexit and Boris derangement wankers. The NY times and other leading international media took up the cause of shitting on the decision because the UK, since Brexit, is always wrong. I wonder how many deaths could have been prevented and would continue to be prevented if the whole world had listened to the actual argument being presented rather than just taken a default view of "UK is wrong, hate Boris, hate Brexit" and stuck to the 3 week gap.
The WHO are still doing it wrt our current argument that taking the exit wave in the summer is preferable to taking it in the winter. Those Northern hemisphere nations quietly chortling at our case rates are walking into a winter disaster.
The 'only fully dosed counts as vaccinated' bitterness of the winter.
I suspect that the USA's third dose plans will not encourage the non-vaccinated - "if they're doing a third dose it shows that the vaccine doesn't work".
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
Direct contacts haven’t had to isolate for a while now just go through the testing process.
Masks were brought back in Wednesday in shops etc.
Nightclubs closed and no standing in bars until September.
Now they have announced that positive Covid people are allowed out for two hours a day on their own to exercise and get fresh air but must wear masks if in vicinity of others and aren’t allowed in shops etc but at least not stuck in their rooms....
Cases have been around 300 new per day for a couple of weeks out of population around 110,000.
Only recent death sadly was unvaccinated man in late 40’s who was very much an anti-vaxxer.
Seems the jersey govt have just decided to let it rip and get it over with......
Just in time for my holiday there. Oh well
Until recently every time we saw a plane coming in there would be a grumble about people bringing in Covid, now when we see a plane going out we can be proud that we are exporting our own supply, maybe it can be branded “Jersey Royal Covid”.....
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Completely, utterly and totally disagree.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
But the question can be flipped -
If you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, but are not really a Conservative, why would you vote Conservative again in 2024? - given Brexit is done and Jeremy Corbyn is on the allotment.
There will be some like that. But are they outnumbered by those who may have made the jump for those reasons, but had been leaning that way for some time and don't feel a push to go back?
A really key question. They might be, yes. And a supplementary - how much of the negativity towards Labour of those who used to vote for them but didn't last time was due to Corbyn? My view is Corbyn was a factor but nothing like as big a one as Brexit. I'd like to think otherwise - since it would make a Not Corbyn Labour's task easier - but I'm pretty sure it's the case.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
It depends entirely on what happens with the hospitals. Refusal only becomes a serious issue if the number of refusers is thought to be sufficient to drive a continuation of the healthcare emergency. Clearly if it isn't then the Government will leave them to their fate.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Problem is with millions of antivaxxers that could get messy and lead to a breakdown in social order
It is the government that is restricting your liberty. The government here and governments elsewhere. It is not people who have not been vaccinated. They don;t pass laws, and there aren't enough of them to have a serious political lobby either.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Which is why allowing Delta to seep through the country in the summer was the right decision.
Sweep?
Not if one happens to be in the small but unfortunate double vaxxed group that succumbs
I find this notion that collateral casualties are a price worth paying to an extent understandable (some die now to save more later) but also morally debatable. Particularly if I am unfortunate enough to fall into the vaxxed but unlucky category.
Now whenever I make a defensive point regarding Covid safety on here, which may be tacitly critical of government policy I am told to f*** off back to my cave, and self-isolate like all the other p******.
For what it's worth I am, for work, out there mixing it with the Great British unwashed.(who along with their poor hand hygiene are now allowed to cough all over me sans mask too).
Luck is a fundamental part of life and people need to make their own decisions based on their own risks and rewards.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Which is why allowing Delta to seep through the country in the summer was the right decision.
Sweep?
Not if one happens to be in the small but unfortunate double vaxxed group that succumbs
I find this notion that collateral casualties are a price worth paying to an extent understandable (some die now to save more later) but also morally debatable. Particularly if I am unfortunate enough to fall into the vaxxed but unlucky category.
Now whenever I make a defensive point regarding Covid safety on here, which may be tacitly critical of government policy I am told to f*** off back to my cave, and self-isolate like all the other p******.
For what it's worth I am, for work, out there mixing it with the Great British unwashed.(who along with their poor hand hygiene are now allowed to cough all over me sans mask too).
Personally i don't really see why it is particularly morally debateable, or that "collateral damage" is a correct term in the context.
The "morally debateable" issue comes up if you are sacrificing one group of people to save a (larger) different group of people. When actually the approach, if taken at face value, simply says that it is the same groups of people who are at risk under both scenarios, but on balance all individuals within the group are at less risk under the approach taken.
It's different perhaps if you are arguing for an approach that envisages somehow never encompassing an 'exit wave' but that is an argument for restrictions to never be lifted, indeed far more permanently restrictive than the pre/post July distinction. Even more so with the suggestions that Covid is not going to go away, and booster vaccines will be continuously required. There will always be "unlucky" vaxxed individuals. But there are lots of ways people can be unlucky in health matters.
Once again, if comparative studies of VE in the UK vs Israel shows higher efficacy in the UK because of the 12 week gap then there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. Both domestic and international. I remember the expert I spoke to said a longer gap between vaccine doses was highly likely to boost long term efficacy as that's what they'd observed from other vaccines which had been set up to look at correct dosing gaps.
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
I think it was fair enough the dosing gap strategy being described as a risk, I was against the idea until it was explained, but the nature of that risk did seem to be oddly put by some, given what was being said about how these things work for many vaccines. It was almost as though people assumed there was no basis for thinking spreading out the doses might work and it was a complete shot in the dark, when it seems like there were sound reasons for supposing it would, and taking the chance being worth it.
Exactly right. The data we had was only for a three week gap, but there exists a huge pool of data on other vaccines that suggests a longer gap would be at least as good, and probably better. I can’t shake the view that some of the criticism was not actually about the science, rather it was Brexit/anti Boris/anti Tory.
That’s been the case throughout the whole pandemic, people who have started from the conclusion that the evil Tories are doing it wrong, and worked backwards from there. Mostly academics and journalists.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
It depends entirely on what happens with the hospitals. Refusal only becomes a serious issue if the number of refusers is thought to be sufficient to drive a continuation of the healthcare emergency. Clearly if it isn't then the Government will leave them to their fate.
If it would help I would be happy to contract out of free NHS treatment, so that if I had a covid illness or got knocked down I would pay for my treatment.
But I want to take my tax money with me. Alright with you?
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The issue as you know (whether you agree with it) is not about protecting the voluntary unvaxxed per se, but the implications for eg. the NHS. If people can't get their cancer operations because the hospitals are full of the voluntary unvaxxed then they will have some cause for complaint...
I'm assuming it'll be a pretty good poll for the LDs because Labour aren't amazingly high but the Tories are pretty low. If anyone has access to the Times article they might be able to fill us in.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
It depends entirely on what happens with the hospitals. Refusal only becomes a serious issue if the number of refusers is thought to be sufficient to drive a continuation of the healthcare emergency. Clearly if it isn't then the Government will leave them to their fate.
If it would help I would be happy to contract out of free NHS treatment, so that if I had a covid illness or got knocked down I would pay for my treatment.
But I want to take my tax money with me. Alright with you?
That's an interesting idea in theory, but we do not live in a theoretical world.
I'd be pretty surprised if Japan do as well as 538 are predicting. My guess is they are applying a standard home advantage, but we know from the Premier League (and others) that home advantage behind closed doors seems to be significantly reduced.
Olympic home advantage is quite different to that of the Premier League or other team events with mass crowds. The bigger part of home advantage is from years of preparation with better funding and young athletes who are more engaged and ambitious as the event is more tangible to them.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
But note that it still starts by implying that people should wait to be called. Its very first sentence is: The NHS will let you know when it is your turn to get the COVID-19 vaccination.
Perhaps that is supposed to mean wait till your age-group comes up but as everyone over 18 is now in scope, this instruction is either redundant or leaves people waiting for a call which will never come.
There’s probably several hundred thousand people in the country who aren’t known to the NHS.
They might have arrived two years ago on tourist visas and got stuck, be overstayers working illegally, be Irish or other legal immigrants who have never registered etc.
Definitely time to start offering walk-in centres with no NHS number required - and a promise of no immigration officers hanging around.
There’s also the converse problem, with millions of Brits living abroad who have been vaccinated abroad, who need to be able to upload their vaccines to the NHS database.
So polling conventional wisdom says it takes 3 days for "an event" to percolate into the polling.
The fieldwork for this You Gov is 3 days after the Boris/Sunak will they won't they self isolate farce.
This is identical to what happened with the wall paper Proud proclamation that no one cares. Point to immediate polls that don't have the reaction to the event in to prove that no-one cares. Shitting it when the polls start reflecting the event. Bold swagger once the even fades after 7 days.
Seven days is how long an even takes to work out if it is a blip.
The problem this time maybe, is events are rolling up like London buses. None for a while and then lots come at once
Johnson's bad behaviour comes and goes, and we forgive and forget. Empty shelves, difficulty obtaining fuel, bins not being emptied, cancelled holidays, should they gain traction stay in the mind for generations.
Voters who weren't even born in 1978/79 remember the Winter of Discontent.
That's if they do come.
The media babbling about empty shelves makes them look ridiculous if the shelves in the local supermarkets are full.
And some middle class prat in London complaining that they cannot get a particular brand of balsamic in Waitrose is a source of amusement to much of the country.
Though I have a suspicion that bins not being emptied is a potential problem - suburbia produces a lot of garden waste in the summer.
I wonder what the ratio is between the following 2 things -
(i) Gurus of Grim complaining about "middle class prats" complaining about the lack of (insert random poncy product) in Waitrose.
(ii) Actual middle class prats actually complaining about the lack of (aforesaid random poncy product) in Waitrose.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Problem is with millions of antivaxxers that could get messy and lead to a breakdown in social order
It is the government that is restricting your liberty. The government here and governments elsewhere. It is not people who have not been vaccinated. They don;t pass laws, and there aren't enough of them to have a serious political lobby either.
I was about to reply to this but then what’s the point? The best I can hope for is some personal abuse.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
Hardly a recommendation to get vaccinated.
Or the many people who cannot be vaccinated, who often seem to be forgotten in such conversations.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
It depends entirely on what happens with the hospitals. Refusal only becomes a serious issue if the number of refusers is thought to be sufficient to drive a continuation of the healthcare emergency. Clearly if it isn't then the Government will leave them to their fate.
If it would help I would be happy to contract out of free NHS treatment, so that if I had a covid illness or got knocked down I would pay for my treatment.
But I want to take my tax money with me. Alright with you?
That's an interesting idea in theory, but we do not live in a theoretical world.
Not too many options to receive critical/emergency care in the private sector. Happy to take contrarian at his word if he can price up how much money he thinks he will get to take with him. In practice most people who get to utilise emergency and critical care in this country probably ultimately come out as net cash recipients in tax terms.
I'm assuming it'll be a pretty good poll for the LDs because Labour aren't amazingly high but the Tories are pretty low. If anyone has access to the Times article they might be able to fill us in.
It's not. The Lib Dems are only on 9%.
The Greens are unusually high, though - and there's a bit of by-election evidence for that too. If you're a leftie unhappy with Starmer it's a plausible choice (but perhaps half the Green vote would go Labour in most seats at a GE).
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
Not my cup of Pocari Sweat but they are very desirable. They are quite slow and usually need a BEAMS swap to get the best out of it.
But an insurance write off in 2006!
The insurance company saw it as just an old car, they will have looked at the ‘book’ price and decided that the cost of respraying it was more than it was worth. This particular, well looked after and quite rare example, was indeed a future classic.
There will be a good story to be told, of how an old lady realised the car she’d owned her whole life was suddenly worth a fortune.
But do people know? I very much doubt it. There must be thousands of people with these cars hanging around that can't be bothered to take them to the tip with no idea that they have a value. I imagine if they did they'd collapse the market. Every farm you drive past has five or six rust buckets around the place
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Completely, utterly and totally disagree.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
But the question can be flipped -
If you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, but are not really a Conservative, why would you vote Conservative again in 2024? - given Brexit is done and Jeremy Corbyn is on the allotment.
It’s almost certainly a thing. As it happens I think Fraser is a perpetually self justifying diddy but there’s probably a whole load of diddies out there.
It is the government that is restricting your liberty. The government here and governments elsewhere. It is not people who have not been vaccinated. They don;t pass laws, and there aren't enough of them to have a serious political lobby either.
I was about to reply to this but then what’s the point? The best I can hope for is some personal abuse.
Indeed - the silly thing is all the ranting about masks and Test & Trace is peripheral to the real debate about the amount of Government control and monitoring of our lives.
The apparatus of the "security State" needs to be reviewed and large parts dismantled and we also need to curb the power of business to collect, use and abuse our personal information.
There's a lot of guff from websites saying they respect your "Privacy" but the onus is always to opt out of all the cookies, trackers and the like - it should be the other way round.
Business gorges on our information - it's time they went on a crash diet.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
It depends entirely on what happens with the hospitals. Refusal only becomes a serious issue if the number of refusers is thought to be sufficient to drive a continuation of the healthcare emergency. Clearly if it isn't then the Government will leave them to their fate.
If it would help I would be happy to contract out of free NHS treatment, so that if I had a covid illness or got knocked down I would pay for my treatment.
But I want to take my tax money with me. Alright with you?
That's an interesting idea in theory, but we do not live in a theoretical world.
Not too many options to receive critical/emergency care in the private sector. Happy to take contrarian at his word if he can price up how much money he thinks he will get to take with him. In practice most people who get to utilise emergency and critical care in this country probably ultimately come out as net cash recipients in tax terms.
The NHS can treat me and bill me for any treatment I get. They do that for health tourists, right?
I tell you what though. If you do allow me to contract out, watch millions follow me. Millions. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, does not matter.
So polling conventional wisdom says it takes 3 days for "an event" to percolate into the polling.
The fieldwork for this You Gov is 3 days after the Boris/Sunak will they won't they self isolate farce.
This is identical to what happened with the wall paper Proud proclamation that no one cares. Point to immediate polls that don't have the reaction to the event in to prove that no-one cares. Shitting it when the polls start reflecting the event. Bold swagger once the even fades after 7 days.
Seven days is how long an even takes to work out if it is a blip.
The problem this time maybe, is events are rolling up like London buses. None for a while and then lots come at once
Johnson's bad behaviour comes and goes, and we forgive and forget. Empty shelves, difficulty obtaining fuel, bins not being emptied, cancelled holidays, should they gain traction stay in the mind for generations.
Voters who weren't even born in 1978/79 remember the Winter of Discontent.
That's if they do come.
The media babbling about empty shelves makes them look ridiculous if the shelves in the local supermarkets are full.
And some middle class prat in London complaining that they cannot get a particular brand of balsamic in Waitrose is a source of amusement to much of the country.
Though I have a suspicion that bins not being emptied is a potential problem - suburbia produces a lot of garden waste in the summer.
I wonder what the ratio is between the following 2 things -
(i) Gurus of Grim complaining about "middle class prats" complaining about the lack of (insert poncy product of choice) in Waitrose.
(ii) Actual middle class prats actually complaining about the lack of (random poncy product) in Waitrose.
I'm going for about 1000 to 1.
In which case it would show that there is no shortage in Waitrose.
And that the media babbling about empty shelves are only making themselves look ridiculous.
Of course this should already be apparent after the 'there are no strawberries in the shops' claims of 2017:
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
Hardly a recommendation to get vaccinated.
Or the many people who cannot be vaccinated, who often seem to be forgotten in such conversations.
Is there this cohort with covid vaccination ? Aside from a very specific Pfizer allergy which mean switching over to AZ I haven't come across any examples ?
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
Hardly a recommendation to get vaccinated.
You have yet to provide a credible reason why you haven't had the vaccine.
By credible, I don't mean a reason that makes sense to other people, I mean one that makes sense to you.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
It depends entirely on what happens with the hospitals. Refusal only becomes a serious issue if the number of refusers is thought to be sufficient to drive a continuation of the healthcare emergency. Clearly if it isn't then the Government will leave them to their fate.
If it would help I would be happy to contract out of free NHS treatment, so that if I had a covid illness or got knocked down I would pay for my treatment.
But I want to take my tax money with me. Alright with you?
That's an interesting idea in theory, but we do not live in a theoretical world.
Not too many options to receive critical/emergency care in the private sector. Happy to take contrarian at his word if he can price up how much money he thinks he will get to take with him. In practice most people who get to utilise emergency and critical care in this country probably ultimately come out as net cash recipients in tax terms.
The NHS can treat me and bill me for any treatment I get. They do that for health tourists, right?
I tell you what though. If you do allow me to contract out, watch millions follow me. Millions. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, does not matter.
You got insurance? You think you could get insurance for Covid related treatment on the back of voluntarily refusing the vaccine?
2 f******t no-masker girls on the tube in peak time yesterday evening, sat down filling their faces with smelly burgers. The dim-wits couldn't fathom why everyone moved to the other end of the carriage - or rather they couldn't give a s***. It was all about their precious human rights to spread the virus and pollute the tube with their vile smelling fast food.
London Transport is still too timid to enforce its own policy of no mask, no travel. That's why several tube lines are closed this weekend, as the no-maskers have made London Transport staff ill with their virus.
The classic car market in general has been booming these past few years, a combination of a new generation of investors looking to buy cars of the ‘80s and ‘90s, and of a flight to assets as investments following the last recession. The art market has been the same, and we all regularly discuss the property market and stock market on here.
A 2010-13 550-2/560-4 manual Gallardo would be a very decent investment (as long you don't crash it). The last manual Ferraris have exploded in value and the Lambos will inevitably be next.
McLarens go the other way. The CEO of McLaren Automotive was selling his 720 and it lost nearly £100,000 in value in less than two years. Depreciating at a grand a week!
Is there an obvious reason why McLarens are much less collectible?
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
There is still a chance, albeit quite small, of catching Covid from someone who is unvaccinated and then being hospitalised or dying, even for the double-vaccinated.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Problem is with millions of antivaxxers that could get messy and lead to a breakdown in social order
It is the government that is restricting your liberty. The government here and governments elsewhere. It is not people who have not been vaccinated. They don;t pass laws, and there aren't enough of them to have a serious political lobby either.
I was about to reply to this but then what’s the point? The best I can hope for is some personal abuse.
He's right of course, though. It's an ad absurdem. Governments do restrict liberty, but the point is that as social animals we recognise that we have to co-operate ...... give up some personal autonomy ..... for the good of the group. It's that we are able to do so in large groups which, apparently, distinguished us from, and thereby made us able to compete with and largely supplant, other hominids.
The Spectator. How can a publication so very wrong in so many ways have so many good writers to spread its wrongness? The only liberal magazine that has a similar quality of writing is the New Yorker IMHO. The NS really needs to up its game.
London Transport is still too timid to enforce its own policy of no mask, no travel. That's why several tube lines are closed this weekend, as the no-maskers have made London Transport staff ill with their virus.
Is it? Or is the policy on isolation? That Sadiq Khan is arguing for the policy to be replaced with daily testing suggests it's the latter.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Problem is with millions of antivaxxers that could get messy and lead to a breakdown in social order
It is the government that is restricting your liberty. The government here and governments elsewhere. It is not people who have not been vaccinated. They don;t pass laws, and there aren't enough of them to have a serious political lobby either.
I was about to reply to this but then what’s the point? The best I can hope for is some personal abuse.
He's right of course, though. It's an ad absurdem. Governments do restrict liberty, but the point is that as social animals we recognise that we have to co-operate ...... give up some personal autonomy ..... for the good of the group. It's that we are able to do so in large groups which, apparently, distinguished us from, and thereby made us able to compete with and largely supplant, other hominids.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
Hardly a recommendation to get vaccinated.
You have yet to provide a credible reason why you haven't got the vaccine.
By credible, I don't mean a reason that makes sense to other people, I mean one that makes sense to you.
That's a fair point. I don't believe any of the conspiracy theory stuff, but I also know people who have been very off colour after vaccination.
I don't want to go into details because I would be accused of being an anti-vaxxer. But it has occurred to me that acquiring immunity via getting the disease might be been much easier.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Sounds like seventh heaven for readers of certain newspapers. Presumably those under house arrest wouldn't be allowed out even to buy food, so they'd need to rely on deliveries unless they'd "prepped" by stocking up, big time. Supermarket managers would have to be able to call in the robocops to detain any trouble-making barbarians who tried their luck and made it through the doors at Aldi, let alone Waitrose. Ditto bus drivers.
Exemption from vaccination would already have been decided prior to the offer, so in effect house arrest orders would be issued by medics. "We sent the offer. You didn't show up. Stamp. You're banned."
What would you do about the children of the unvaccinated? Options include the following: forcibly vaccinate them, take them into care, or make them stay under house-arrest too.
Are any other countries close yet to a policy of "You're declining the vaccination offer? Then stay in your house until you're told you're allowed to come out"?
Macron wouldn't dare. Not before the election in April anyway. He'd not only get smashed electorally (key observation: both Le Pen and Mélenchon are against the "pass sanitaire") but the Fifth Republic would lose control of the banlieues to an even greater extent than it has already. Automatic weapons would come out and you might well get civil war.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The issue as you know (whether you agree with it) is not about protecting the voluntary unvaxxed per se, but the implications for eg. the NHS. If people can't get their cancer operations because the hospitals are full of the voluntary unvaxxed then they will have some cause for complaint...
If that happens given most of the unvaccinated are relatively young then something will have gone badly wrong
Not really. For a start, the debate is about contrarian. Not the young. Secondly its long established that the young can get hospitalised by Covid. In general, less likely, and much more likely to recover, but in sufficient numbers to cause problems. And problems which are completely avoidable with higher levels of vaccination.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
Not my cup of Pocari Sweat but they are very desirable. They are quite slow and usually need a BEAMS swap to get the best out of it.
But an insurance write off in 2006!
The insurance company saw it as just an old car, they will have looked at the ‘book’ price and decided that the cost of respraying it was more than it was worth. This particular, well looked after and quite rare example, was indeed a future classic.
There will be a good story to be told, of how an old lady realised the car she’d owned her whole life was suddenly worth a fortune.
But do people know? I very much doubt it. There must be thousands of people with these cars hanging around that can't be bothered to take them to the tip with no idea that they have a value. I imagine if they did they'd collapse the market. Every farm you drive past has five or six rust buckets around the place
I know of someone with a mid 70's car which he has more or less only used for the last five years to drive to the local supermarket. And he didn't drive it much before that. Took it for an MOT a year or so ago and was offered £50k IIRC. Turned it down; didn't want to have to get used to another car.
2 f******t no-masker girls on the tube in peak time yesterday evening, sat down filling their faces with smelly burgers. The dim-wits couldn't fathom why everyone moved to the other end of the carriage - or rather they couldn't give a s***. It was all about their precious human rights to spread the virus and pollute the tube with their vile smelling fast food.
London Transport is still too timid to enforce its own policy of no mask, no travel. That's why several tube lines are closed this weekend, as the no-maskers have made London Transport staff ill with their virus.
Not quite - the Control Room staff shortages (not drivers) have been going on for some time.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Sounds like seventh heaven for readers of certain newspapers. Presumably those under house arrest wouldn't be allowed out even to buy food, so they'd need to rely on deliveries unless they'd "prepped" by stocking up, big time. Supermarket managers would have to be able to call in the robocops to detain any trouble-making barbarians who tried their luck and made it through the doors at Aldi, let alone Waitrose. Ditto bus drivers.
Exemption from vaccination would already have been decided prior to the offer, so in effect house arrest orders would be issued by medics. "We sent the offer. You didn't show up. Stamp. You're banned."
Are any other countries close yet to a policy of "You're declining the vaccination offer? Then stay in your house until you're told you're allowed to come out"?
Macron wouldn't dare. Not before the election in April anyway. He'd not only get smashed electorally (key observation: both Le Pen and Mélenchon are against the "pass sanitaire") but the Fifth Republic would lose control of the banlieues to an even greater extent than it has already. Automatic weapons would come out and you might well get civil war.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The issue as you know (whether you agree with it) is not about protecting the voluntary unvaxxed per se, but the implications for eg. the NHS. If people can't get their cancer operations because the hospitals are full of the voluntary unvaxxed then they will have some cause for complaint...
If that happens given most of the unvaccinated are relatively young then something will have gone badly wrong
Not really. For a start, the debate is about contrarian. Not the young. Secondly its long established that the young can get hospitalised by Covid. In general, less likely, and much more likely to recover, but in sufficient numbers to cause problems. And problems which are completely avoidable with higher levels of vaccination.
Didn't @Foxy say yesterday that half the Covid patients in ICU in his hospital were under 30?
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
Problem is with millions of antivaxxers that could get messy and lead to a breakdown in social order
It is the government that is restricting your liberty. The government here and governments elsewhere. It is not people who have not been vaccinated. They don;t pass laws, and there aren't enough of them to have a serious political lobby either.
I was about to reply to this but then what’s the point? The best I can hope for is some personal abuse.
He's right of course, though. It's an ad absurdem. Governments do restrict liberty, but the point is that as social animals we recognise that we have to co-operate ...... give up some personal autonomy ..... for the good of the group. It's that we are able to do so in large groups which, apparently, distinguished us from, and thereby made us able to compete with and largely supplant, other hominids.
A bit meta for a Saturday morning
Sorry. When one is retired all days are much the same. Especially when there's wall-to-wall sport on the box.
Related to this is something I've been wondering about.
With so much Delta around I wonder if many vaccinated people are coming into regular contact with a few viral strands.
Not enough to cause a positive test let alone any symptoms but enough to give their immunity a small boost.
Clearly immune naive covid is a massive risk, but yes once vaccinated you might as well head out and let your immune system function 'normally' fighting off covid, rinovirus and other bugs
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
There is still a chance, albeit quite small, of catching Covid from someone who is unvaccinated and then being hospitalised or dying, even for the double-vaccinated.
Your attitude is putting ither at risk.
And so to counter that very very small risk, you propose creating a two tier society based on the principle medical apartheid. You propose fundamentally altering the balance between state and individual.
Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.
There are countries in the world without our fortuitous position WRT vaccines.
It's a bit of an insult to the world to hold a cult-of-strength help-the-advertisers nationalism fest during a global plague. It's not as if there'd be bloody riots if it didn't go ahead, cf. Juventus versus Liverpool, Heysel 1985.
I think the time has come for us all to try and strongly persuade those of our friends and family who are vaccine hesitant to get the jab. If not they will be barred from most events and pubs and will struggle to lead a normal life in the UK. They will in effect become societal outcasts. See the speech by the PM of Israel
How much pressure is to be applied to anti-vaxxers will depend very much on the progress of the disease over the next couple of months. If it becomes apparent that existing coverage is sufficient to end the emergency and keep us out of lockdown then nobody will care about the refusers. If it isn't then the public pressure to start stamping on them, and keep doing so until they either accept the jab or are forced into house arrest, will quickly become enormous.
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
The refusers are not asking you to care about them. Most are happy to go back to their lives and take any risk that comes.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
The risk from refusing the vaccine is not just to yourself. You're a clear and present danger to others.
If you are double vaccinated, as you undoubtedly are, then you risk getting a bad cold from me at worst.
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
There is still a chance, albeit quite small, of catching Covid from someone who is unvaccinated and then being hospitalised or dying, even for the double-vaccinated.
Your attitude is putting ither at risk.
And so to counter that very very small risk, you propose creating a two tier society based on the principle medical apartheid. You propose fundamentally altering the balance between state and individual.
Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.
There are countries in the world without our fortuitous position WRT vaccines.
It's a bit of an insult to the world to hold a cult-of-strength help-the-advertisers nationalism fest during a global plague. It's not as if there'd be bloody riots if it didn't go ahead, cf. Juventus versus Liverpool, Heysel 1985.
Yeah. I think that the Olympics, not just Tokyo, the movement, may be on its last legs. Who wants it anymore?
Related to this is something I've been wondering about.
With so much Delta around I wonder if many vaccinated people are coming into regular contact with a few viral strands.
Not enough to cause a positive test let alone any symptoms but enough to give their immunity a small boost.
Clearly immune naive covid is a massive risk, but yes once vaccinated you might as well head out and let your immune system function 'normally' fighting off covid, rinovirus and other bugs
I wonder what the comparison is of the rewards of getting small immunity boosts compared to the risk of getting a big lump of virus which might cause problems.
Comments
At the time I remember being against it, but then when the expert explained to me that getting first dose coverage up was a better approach and it had a possible side benefit of better immunity I changed my mind. They specifically said "3 weeks is a very short gap, Pfizer will have picked the minimum time to get a quick trial" and "really they'd have wanted to wait for at least 4 weeks and also test intervals of 6, 8 and 12 weeks" but that would add at least three months onto the length of the trial.
In general organisations and policies develop their own momentum and are difficult to 'switch off'.
Direct contacts haven’t had to isolate for a while now just go through the testing process.
Masks were brought back in Wednesday in shops etc.
Nightclubs closed and no standing in bars until September.
Now they have announced that positive Covid people are allowed out for two hours a day on their own to exercise and get fresh air but must wear masks if in vicinity of others and aren’t allowed in shops etc but at least not stuck in their rooms....
Cases have been around 300 new per day for a couple of weeks out of population around 110,000.
Only recent death sadly was unvaccinated man in late 40’s who was very much an anti-vaxxer.
Seems the jersey govt have just decided to let it rip and get it over with......
As I've mentioned earlier today, my son & his family, who live on the edge of Bangkok don't seem very concerned. Their phone calls and messages report shopping, visiting friends and even a few days down at the coast. He and his wife have been vaccinated, and there are reports of plenty of vaccine either being used, or on the way.
Johnson's bad behaviour comes and goes, and we forgive and forget. Empty shelves, difficulty obtaining fuel, bins not being emptied, cancelled holidays, should they gain traction stay in the mind for generations.
Voters who weren't even born in 1978/79 remember the Winter of Discontent.
A return to "normality" will put the day-to-day activity of Government back in the spotlight and we'll see how this Government really functions and whether it can deliver.
I have my doubts - others may be more optimistic.
The point is it's never the big things like pandemics which damage Governments because the electorate rallies to support - it's happened all over Europe (from the leftish Government in Portugal through the centre-left Danish coalition to the centre-right Government in Greece). It's the little things - the errors, the misjudgements, the gaffes which become crises, scandals and led to Ministerial resignations.
It's the drip-drip of normality that does the damage - also, and let's be blunt, people get tired of the same old faces saying the same old things. Johnson will, I suspect, reshuffle next year to promote some of the alleged backbench "talent" and start to showcase the team for the next term.
The problem then becomes the young and ambitious look up and see old Boris blocking the way and that's when it all starts to get difficult for a Prime Minister.
There may be an opportunity for Starmer here but the fundamental problem he has is he has yet to spell out anything approaching a compelling reason to vote Labour. if you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, why would you vote for Starmer's Labour in 2024?
That, ultimately, is the only question worth asking and answering.
The time to congratulate people is when they actually collect...
If you voted Conservative in 2019 to end the Brexit quagmire and stop Jeremy Corbyn, but are not really a Conservative, why would you vote Conservative again in 2024? - given Brexit is done and Jeremy Corbyn is on the allotment.
Do you know which strategy each country has been following ?
https://www.normalguysupercar.com/product/ferrari-f430-360-manual-conversion-kit/
A £150k 2019 720S is an absolute bargain, faster than anything less than three times the price, and independent specialists such as Thorney Motorsport and Ian Litchfield are starting to work on them now, which will keep future running costs on McLarens down.
If you want to talk about depreciation, some poor bugger has lost a million quid, in four years and 3,500 miles, on this 2017 Bugatti Chiron!
https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-spottedykywt/lightly-used-bugatti-chiron-for-sale/44463
The United States gave the second dose at 3 weeks though. So if the short gap is the thing that is making the difference in Israel, it should be showing up in the USA as well. Is there any data from the US about this?
Result several people fell ill and the whole of Alderney has been locked down. Everyone who was where the crew went has been told to have (I think) a PCR test.
The media babbling about empty shelves makes them look ridiculous if the shelves in the local supermarkets are full.
And some middle class prat in London complaining that they cannot get a particular brand of balsamic in Waitrose is a source of amusement to much of the country.
Though I have a suspicion that bins not being emptied is a potential problem - suburbia produces a lot of garden waste in the summer.
The sad part is that because the UK proposed it initially it got dismissed by the Brexit and Boris derangement wankers. The NY times and other leading international media took up the cause of shitting on the decision because the UK, since Brexit, is always wrong. I wonder how many deaths could have been prevented and would continue to be prevented if the whole world had listened to the actual argument being presented rather than just taken a default view of "UK is wrong, hate Boris, hate Brexit" and stuck to the 3 week gap.
The WHO are still doing it wrt our current argument that taking the exit wave in the summer is preferable to taking it in the winter. Those Northern hemisphere nations quietly chortling at our case rates are walking into a winter disaster.
2 top notch places - London or Dusseldorf.
Not if one happens to be in the small but unfortunate double vaxxed group that succumbs
I find this notion that collateral casualties are a price worth paying to an extent understandable (some die now to save more later) but also morally debatable. Particularly if I am unfortunate enough to fall into the vaxxed but unlucky category.
Now whenever I make a defensive point regarding Covid safety on here, which may be tacitly critical of government policy I am told to f*** off back to my cave, and self-isolate like all the other p******.
For what it's worth I am, for work, out there mixing it with the Great British unwashed.(who along with their poor hand hygiene are now allowed to cough all over me sans mask too).
The great mass of the people won't tolerate being immiserated to respect the right of a minority to choose to be difficult.
So despite your opening line, I agree with you, and I think you agree with me, mostly.
HMG has yesterday updated its instructions so you can now book without an NHS number.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-booking-an-appointment-letter/booking-your-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-appointments
But note that it still starts by implying that people should wait to be called. Its very first sentence is: The NHS will let you know when it is your turn to get the COVID-19 vaccination.
Perhaps that is supposed to mean wait till your age-group comes up but as everyone over 18 is now in scope, this instruction is either redundant or leaves people waiting for a call which will never come.
I suspect that the USA's third dose plans will not encourage the non-vaccinated - "if they're doing a third dose it shows that the vaccine doesn't work".
https://www.libdemvoice.org/byelection-report-from-adlc-22nd-july-2021-68265.html
Wouldn't surprise me if there were one or two reminiscent of that speed skater who won gold because the 3 people in front of him all collided.
If you could find the right bet, it could be worth it.
I know I am.
Its the government that is restricting your liberty, not the unvaccinated.
Until recently every time we saw a plane coming in there would be a grumble about people bringing in Covid, now when we see a plane going out we can be proud that we are exporting our own supply, maybe it can be branded “Jersey Royal Covid”.....
The "morally debateable" issue comes up if you are sacrificing one group of people to save a (larger) different group of people. When actually the approach, if taken at face value, simply says that it is the same groups of people who are at risk under both scenarios, but on balance all individuals within the group are at less risk under the approach taken.
It's different perhaps if you are arguing for an approach that envisages somehow never encompassing an 'exit wave' but that is an argument for restrictions to never be lifted, indeed far more permanently restrictive than the pre/post July distinction. Even more so with the suggestions that Covid is not going to go away, and booster vaccines will be continuously required. There will always be "unlucky" vaxxed individuals. But there are lots of ways people can be unlucky in health matters.
But I want to take my tax money with me. Alright with you?
Unless of course you are claiming that the vaccines are not as effective as we are being told.
Hardly a recommendation to get vaccinated.
They might have arrived two years ago on tourist visas and got stuck, be overstayers working illegally, be Irish or other legal immigrants who have never registered etc.
Definitely time to start offering walk-in centres with no NHS number required - and a promise of no immigration officers hanging around.
There’s also the converse problem, with millions of Brits living abroad who have been vaccinated abroad, who need to be able to upload their vaccines to the NHS database.
(i) Gurus of Grim complaining about "middle class prats" complaining about the lack of (insert random poncy product) in Waitrose.
(ii) Actual middle class prats actually complaining about the lack of (aforesaid random poncy product) in Waitrose.
I'm going for about 1000 to 1.
Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
The successive emergence of the more transmissible alpha and delta SARCoV2 lineages mean that the vast majority of the global population is expected to get infected by the virus, likely more than once over their lifetime.
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625721000730?v=s5…
1/…
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1418364472771624968
As it happens I think Fraser is a perpetually self justifying diddy but there’s probably a whole load of diddies out there.
https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1418083955308474370?s=21
The apparatus of the "security State" needs to be reviewed and large parts dismantled and we also need to curb the power of business to collect, use and abuse our personal information.
There's a lot of guff from websites saying they respect your "Privacy" but the onus is always to opt out of all the cookies, trackers and the like - it should be the other way round.
Business gorges on our information - it's time they went on a crash diet.
I tell you what though. If you do allow me to contract out, watch millions follow me. Millions. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, does not matter.
And that the media babbling about empty shelves are only making themselves look ridiculous.
Of course this should already be apparent after the 'there are no strawberries in the shops' claims of 2017:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4659924/Sir-Vince-Cable-slammed-Wimbledon-strawberry-scare.html
By credible, I don't mean a reason that makes sense to other people, I mean one that makes sense to you.
London Transport is still too timid to enforce its own policy of no mask, no travel. That's why several tube lines are closed this weekend, as the no-maskers have made London Transport staff ill with their virus.
This is simply NOT TRUE is it @contrarian?
There is still a chance, albeit quite small, of catching Covid from someone who is unvaccinated and then being hospitalised or dying, even for the double-vaccinated.
Your attitude is putting ither at risk.
Governments do restrict liberty, but the point is that as social animals we recognise that we have to co-operate ...... give up some personal autonomy ..... for the good of the group.
It's that we are able to do so in large groups which, apparently, distinguished us from, and thereby made us able to compete with and largely supplant, other hominids.
With so much Delta around I wonder if many vaccinated people are coming into regular contact with a few viral strands.
Not enough to cause a positive test let alone any symptoms but enough to give their immunity a small boost.
I don't want to go into details because I would be accused of being an anti-vaxxer. But it has occurred to me that acquiring immunity via getting the disease might be been much easier.
https://twitter.com/nik_ilic/status/1418282808141885442?s=21
Exemption from vaccination would already have been decided prior to the offer, so in effect house arrest orders would be issued by medics. "We sent the offer. You didn't show up. Stamp. You're banned."
What would you do about the children of the unvaccinated? Options include the following: forcibly vaccinate them, take them into care, or make them stay under house-arrest too.
Are any other countries close yet to a policy of "You're declining the vaccination offer? Then stay in your house until you're told you're allowed to come out"?
Macron wouldn't dare. Not before the election in April anyway. He'd not only get smashed electorally (key observation: both Le Pen and Mélenchon are against the "pass sanitaire") but the Fifth Republic would lose control of the banlieues to an even greater extent than it has already. Automatic weapons would come out and you might well get civil war.
Took it for an MOT a year or so ago and was offered £50k IIRC. Turned it down; didn't want to have to get used to another car.
OK.