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Olympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated – politicalbetting.com
Olympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated – politicalbetting.com
The greatest show in sport has had its opening ceremony and some events have already begun. While this is a political betting site many of us retain an interest in the Olympic betting markets, perhaps simply because they used to be lumped in with politics in the ‘Specials’ section of bookies’ websites.
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We didn't really know it would happen. It is in a poor time zone for us. We don't have as good a team as previously (although stratospheric by 1996 standards). And many events may well be devalued by who does or doesn't have Covid. Moreover, we have scorching weather and the chance to go places and do all the things in the UK at least.
All in all it may not catch fire here.
Fortunately, there is plenty of real news this summer.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (-6)
LAB: 34% (+3)
via @YouGov
, 20 - 21 Jul
Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996
- New cases: 67,908
- Average: 48,767 (+3,780)
- In hospital: 32,419 (+1,350)
- In ICU: 8,129 (+260)
- New deaths: 487
‘Brexit: More than 2,000 medicines face withdrawal over Protocol’
More than 2,000 medicines are set to be withdrawn from Northern Ireland due to the NI Protocol, a pharmaceutical trade association has warned.
The Protocol means Northern Ireland is still in the EU's pharmaceutical regulatory system unlike Great Britain.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57941657.amp
ETA so that gives as possible explanations for the Conservatives' poll decline:-
Freedom Day underwhelming
Boris's off/on self-isolation after being pinged
Dominic Cummings
Empty shelves
What we need now is a Times reader to give us more details.
I think all of those are relevant to Boris poll decline
I have little doubt the next few weeks/months will define his future
The case rate decline seems promising but it is too early to be certain and of course post 16th August, if not before, all restrictions on the double vaccinated will be removed
Interesting times but there is life after Boris and maybe his mps might start thinking the same
This said, I am pretty bullish about the prospects for the end of the covid era in the West (excluding the southern / eastern countries of the “West”). That’s probably enough to get the incumbent over the line.
Carrie is the unknown factor. She's highly ambitious and I can't imagine her wanting to vacate Downing Street in a hurry.
I don't think these polls mean Johnson is going to lose in 2023/4. The newspapers who are now putting in the boot will probably do their usual volte-face and rally behind him.
However, and it's a big however, next time around Labour will have a leader who IS electable. Whatever you may think of him, Keir Starmer is not toxic in the way that Corbyn was.
I am beginning to think that Batley & Spen was like that moment when Sir Alex Ferguson was one defeat away from getting sacked by Man Utd.
I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
I don't see how anyone can still claim there hasn't been a shift. The evidence is now fairly incontrovertible.
I doubt very very much whether this will be transient. In my opinion the lustre has finally come off Boris' 2019 Brexit election victory and vaccine bounce. A slew of problems have emerged, for which Johnson is manifestly ill-suited. We're firmly into mid-term blues and then some, with issues the like of which this country hasn't faced since the second world war.
Keir Starmer may not ignite passions but he's not toxic and he IS competent.
It clearly isn't. After a relatively quiet opening few months, the problems are growing.
I think Brexit may yet prove the real ticking bomb.
In contrast to my children and grandchildren, who are working and paying taxes.
Not as warm and sunny this morning, 16.4. Quite pleasant though.
Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector
Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471
Do we have that data?
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21
And my family don't seem particularly alarmed.
I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?
If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
It's not common for the zeitgeist to change overnight. 1997 was the most clear and recent example but this feels as though we're teetering on another. Like we need to press the refresh button.
Anyone can do stupid things as a teenager and many of them do. Being serially incompetent and still promoted upwards is far more worrying.
*indeed that obsession with structural organisation and inspection may well be the problem!
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
And ignore Dr Eric
I have to say LEAs were just as bad at that as academy chains and the DfE, but with OFSTED and now Estyn regressing back to the Woodhead* style, it’s getting worse not better.
And that certainly isn’t helping with retention.
*Woodhead spent seven years as a teacher and was sacked from two of his three posts, both times for his dismal performance. On one occasion his colleagues, on being told an IRA bomb scare had been sparked by a girl who hadn’t done her homework for him, assumed a cover up was going on because they had never seen him set work of any sort.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
Four photos of Thais collapsed in the street
https://twitter.com/xavikota/status/1418556267291766787?s=21
Meanwhile
‘Bangkok closes public spaces as COVID-19 surges in Thailand’
https://twitter.com/avrilbellon/status/1418680017173852165?s=21
Hopefully, we’re about to see something shift..
Not in 1997 it didn't. Not overnight. The Opposition had been tearing a broken and morally bankrupt administration to pieces since Black Wednesday.
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) =
1.8 * (1 - 0.42) =
1.02
😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution.
Hello March 2020.’
https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500153070686220?s=21
Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
“More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21
And there is this:
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 @sailorrooscout
·
Jul 22
Real-world data out of Canada shows overall vaccine effectiveness (both doses) against symptomatic infection:
•AstraZeneca: 88%
•Moderna: 92%
•Pfizer: 90%
Overall against Variants of Concern:
•Alpha (B.1.1.7): 91%
•Delta (B.1.617.2): 85%
•Gamma (P.1): 89%
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 @sailorrooscout
·
19h
For all of those asking why this data is different than that from Israel: Davidovitch stressed that all figures should be treated as preliminary and with limited relevance given the relatively small numbers of positive patients at the moment. “It’s quite early to comment, as the
We are celebrating the fact the we can now sing in church.
A bientot
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s
2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
This will be a game of two steps forward and one step back, but we will still keep moving forward net.