I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
So if these stats are correct, what’s the explanation? Is it that the longer gap we left for logistical reasons turned out to be the right course medically as well? Or is it that the Israelis are using a different metric from us to measure things?
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
Unless this trainee has reported her result to Test & Trace there’s no legal requirement for you to isolate. So really not fair of you to blame this person.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
Unless this trainee has reported her result to Test & Trace there’s no legal requirement for you to isolate. So really not fair of you to blame this person.
And I don’t think the *requirement* kicks in from an LFT until you’ve had a PCR test to confirm it.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
Fair enough, that’s more encouraging
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.
Not yet.....Cumming's new project seems to be dismantling the Tory Party. One senior Cabinet Minister in a couple of weeks is progress. His next quarry is clearly Johnson. Obviously a tougher nut to crack but he's making progress. I'd like to see him and Starmer working to-gether. I think Cummings was hinting at it in the Laura K podcast. Cummings is just like a lawyer or adman. He doesn't care what side he's on or what he's selling he just likes the job and he's very good at it. I'd back him to get rid of Johnson before Starmer does
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
Unless this trainee has reported her result to Test & Trace there’s no legal requirement for you to isolate. So really not fair of you to blame this person.
Similar happened to Grandson-in-Law (acting). Was supposed to join us for a family party, but rang his partner, Eldest Granddaughter to tell her he'd been in contact with someone who subsequently developed symptoms. We thought he was being responsible.
I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.
Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.
Not yet.....Cumming's new project seems to be dismantling the Tory Party. One senior Cabinet Minister in a couple of weeks is progress. His next quarry is clearly Johnson. Obviously a tougher nut to crack but he's making progress. I'd like to see him and Starmer working to-gether. I think Cummings was hinting at it in the Laura K podcast. Cummings is just like a lawyer or adman. He doesn't care what side he's on or what he's selling he just likes the job and he's very good at it. I'd back him to get rid of Johnson before Starmer does
For Cummings successfully dethroning Boris would prove that he was the one who achieved Brexit
Not yet.....Cumming's new project seems to be dismantling the Tory Party. One senior Cabinet Minister in a couple of weeks is progress. His next quarry is clearly Johnson. Obviously a tougher nut to crack but he's making progress. I'd like to see him and Starmer working to-gether. I think Cummings was hinting at it in the Laura K podcast. Cummings is just like a lawyer or adman. He doesn't care what side he's on or what he's selling he just likes the job and he's very good at it.
There is a Times column today that makes the same point.
We know BoZo didn't think Brexit was a good idea, but he thought it was a good way to become party leader.
Cummings didn't think Brexit was a good idea either, he just hates the people who were against it.
Two people who trashed a Nation for personal satisfaction.
Not yet.....Cumming's new project seems to be dismantling the Tory Party. One senior Cabinet Minister in a couple of weeks is progress. His next quarry is clearly Johnson. Obviously a tougher nut to crack but he's making progress. I'd like to see him and Starmer working to-gether. I think Cummings was hinting at it in the Laura K podcast. Cummings is just like a lawyer or adman. He doesn't care what side he's on or what he's selling he just likes the job and he's very good at it.
There is a Times column today that makes the same point.
We know BoZo didn't think Brexit was a good idea, but he thought it was a good way to become party leader.
Cummings didn't think Brexit was a good idea either, he just hates the people who were against it.
Two people who trashed a Nation for personal satisfaction.
Tragic.
Lol. Are we so far down the rabbit hole that Cummings is now the champion of the moderate left and should be made Starmer’s chief of staff?
Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.
Bearing in mind the average age of those athletes, that would make them more sensible than their non Olympian peers.
I mean it was stupid of the Japanese not to insist on vaccination. The Olympic village is now the ultimate global super spreading event. And then all the athletes fly home…
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.
Polybius: not keeping perfect notes but some on what's included in one edition but not the other.
Oxford so far doing better, it seems, but there are multiple chapters (books, technically) ahead that Penguin has and Oxford doesn't.
I have to say that omitting the Social War (Greek 2nd century BC, not the Roman conflict of the same name a century or so later) but including the section on silt deposits in the Black Sea is not necessarily a balance I would have struck.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for not giving you the facts.
I can imagine that reaction. It might not be fair or reasonable but if the others all feel fine it would be an easy instinctual reaction to be annoyed at facing disruption. Is that not part of the reasoning for anger at the pingdemic, that lots are told they need to isolate and being annoyed by that? (yes there are some real world effects too).
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Dutch rower Finn Florijn, who was due to take part in the men's single sculls repechage race, has tested positive for coronavirus,
I'm not particularly into the Olympics, but I do feel sorry for people who may have trained all their lives for this, only to have it moved by a year, and then to get Covid and miss it. Even if they're not jabbed.
Apparently one of the cyclists from a developing country was even worse, he desperately tried to get jabbed for months, and inbetween tried to stay away from everybody. Tested positive a couple of weeks before the games, next day got offer for his vaccination.
This morning, Radio 5 had a story about an Irish ?boxer? who had exactly the opposite luck. This time last year, his wife gave birth to a premature baby and he couldn't make it to the games. The delay suited him nicely ...
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
We started with Pfizer, AZ came in January. I’d be extremely cautious about these Israel numbers. Evidence elsewhere in bigger populations does not support this. It’s not an official report. We will be boosting into the autumn. I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.
I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.
You wanted Boris to take those penalities?
I want to see him on his knees
before PM Gove
Yeuuugh
For gods sake man, it’s too early to have that image seared into my skull...
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
We started with Pfizer, AZ came in January. I’d be extremely cautious about these Israel numbers. Evidence elsewhere in bigger populations does not support this. It’s not an official report. We will be boosting into the autumn. I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.
I don't like to be a cynic, but i think we also need to ask ourselves on these studies who is producing them. Not any knowledge on this one , but ironically there is a lot of money to the likes of Pfizer in discovering that their vaccines are quite as good as hoped. Especially in a "waning efficiency" sense (ie. "very good, but need repeated boosters"). Also very suspicious about studies which focus on infection and not on severity of illness.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Oxford and AZ may have the last laugh then, if the rapid waning of Pfizer turns out to be real.
It won’t. Why should it. Yes the vaccines are different but both have primed the bodies immune system, and it’s that which gives the immunity. And once again, antibodies are not the whole extent of the immune system.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
We started with Pfizer, AZ came in January. I’d be extremely cautious about these Israel numbers. Evidence elsewhere in bigger populations does not support this. It’s not an official report. We will be boosting into the autumn. I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.
The thing is there's no reason to pay any extra attention to Israeli data. Israel have administered 11 million doses, the UK has administered 83 million doses. Our data is much firmer than their data.
Plus we've followed a different dosing regimen that there's reason to believe will give better long-term immunity. At no stage has Israel ever administered more doses than the UK has - so the Israeli data was more interesting as to 'herd' effects early on before we'd done everyone, but its rather meaningless now.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
I think that's a fair analysis (and an "ahem!" to the folk who derided me for saying Survation and ComRes seemed to be showing a move, and YouGov would be interesting). An underlying issue is that the Cabinet hasn't really addressed its differences between classic sound(ish)-finance Tories and populist money-tree Tories. Johnson has been allowed to run with the latter up to now, but it's always been transactional - "the Tories are doing well, why argue with success?" If that ceases to be true (and his personal ratings in that poll are not good) then some serious collisions on taxes and spending will follow.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.
Wind your neck in there. I have no decision to make as I don't even know this person. The impact on me is entirely indirect and I've already made new plans.
Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.
Wind your neck in there. I have no decision to make as I don't even know this person. The impact on me is entirely indirect and I've already made new plans.
Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).
I suspect, in a similar vein, that there are pubs etc, where landlords are appealing to staff to do things like turn off the app to avoid pingdemics, but are dependent on the attitude of their staff to agree.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for not giving you the facts.
I can imagine that reaction. It might not be fair or reasonable but if the others all feel fine it would be an easy instinctual reaction to be annoyed at facing disruption. Is that not part of the reasoning for anger at the pingdemic, that lots are told they need to isolate and being annoyed by that? (yes there are some real world effects too).
Seems natural if minority reaction to me.
I understand this reaction. Could you imagine if you have to cancel a holiday or attending a wedding because of this situation? Or, you are self employed and lose out on a job or otherwise fail to meet contractural obligations because of it? You could lose your entire livelihood because of this 2 weeks compulsory house arrest. You would just be mad as hell about it.
However, people should be mad at the policy and the out of touch government who introduced it - not the person who did the right thing and followed the rules. The policy is unworkable and should be scrapped immediately. Switch it to a recommendation to take a test and isolate until you get the result, and there is a better chance of long term compliance.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Much in this. But for the first time in ages there are signs of a drop in the Tory support - but as always polling fixes a share price on a trade that can only be done once every 4/5 years and there is a long way to go.
Threats to petrol supplies are a notorious temporary shifter of opinion. The latest two polls don't yet indicate a firm increase in Labour support.
At this moment I guess that Tory support is flat because of the people who withdraw support as the government is unlocking too fast and not fast enough; rather as Labour support is flat because it is too left and not left enough.
However Boris's wheels must come off sometime. I don't think it is yet....
Finally, I don't think a time can be predicted yet or foreseeably when Covid is not the big (though interminably dull) story.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Hats off then. Because both of those activities - for most - require 100% concentration. If your focus slips you'll miss the hole. Or slice it.
Oxford and AZ may have the last laugh then, if the rapid waning of Pfizer turns out to be real.
It won’t. Why should it. Yes the vaccines are different but both have primed the bodies immune system, and it’s that which gives the immunity. And once again, antibodies are not the whole extent of the immune system.
But AIUI they are priming them in differing ways. For one thing (again AIUI) OxAZ does not stabilise the spike; Pfizer and Moderna do. From what I've read (I can't remember here, but I think it was from one of @NigelB 's links, that can make a big difference to the longevity of the immunising effect.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.
Wind your neck in there. I have no decision to make as I don't even know this person. The impact on me is entirely indirect and I've already made new plans.
Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).
I suspect, in a similar vein, that there are pubs etc, where landlords are appealing to staff to do things like turn off the app to avoid pingdemics, but are dependent on the attitude of their staff to agree.
This may be a time when the benefits of being a good boss, or a firm with a positive attitude to staff relations, will pay off. Work for someone you respect, come into work. Work for an arsehole, stay off as long as possible.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
We started with Pfizer, AZ came in January. I’d be extremely cautious about these Israel numbers. Evidence elsewhere in bigger populations does not support this. It’s not an official report. We will be boosting into the autumn. I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.
The thing is there's no reason to pay any extra attention to Israeli data. Israel have administered 11 million doses, the UK has administered 83 million doses. Our data is much firmer than their data.
Plus we've followed a different dosing regimen that there's reason to believe will give better long-term immunity. At no stage has Israel ever administered more doses than the UK has - so the Israeli data was more interesting as to 'herd' effects early on before we'd done everyone, but its rather meaningless now.
U.K. will likely pass Israel, in doses per head of population, in the next week. Their programme stalled at 120%, with large groups (of mostly Orthodox Jews) unwilling to get jabbed.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
Fair enough, that’s more encouraging
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
Which is quite amusing as in the 80s and 90s it was very popular in the US for their politicians etc to be railing against Japanese vehicles.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
Fair enough, that’s more encouraging
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?
Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.
I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
Greed and envy are not nice traits, you will be a pensioner soon enough.
I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.
I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
Greed and envy are not nice traits, you will be a pensioner soon enough.
Old voters expecting young people to give them benefits they've not paid for, by increasing the burden on the young paying even more taxes, is the real greed.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for giving you the facts to make your decision.
Wind your neck in there. I have no decision to make as I don't even know this person. The impact on me is entirely indirect and I've already made new plans.
Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).
I suspect, in a similar vein, that there are pubs etc, where landlords are appealing to staff to do things like turn off the app to avoid pingdemics, but are dependent on the attitude of their staff to agree.
This may be a time when the benefits of being a good boss, or a firm with a positive attitude to staff relations, will pay off. Work for someone you respect, come into work. Work for an arsehole, stay off as long as possible.
Mrs C & I went to a pub for lunch yesterday; change of air as much as anything. Weren't asked to ping in, but staff were masked. Ate outside, tables adequately separated. It's a pub where we're known, so there were quite a few chats; no-one getting particularly close to one another, but no customers masked.
@hzeffman Boris Johnson also facing Cabinet backlash over plans to raise National Insurance to fund social care
'There is no way there is a majority in Cabinet in favour of this,' one minister said.
'This is a generational question. We cannot force young people to shoulder the burden'
Good to see and I think a trend. Because here come the tough times for this government. Easy to be popular with the pandemic blotting out everything. Not so easy when it fades to leave just Brexit hassles and tax & spend decisions in straitened circumstances and exuberant promises to keep on difficult matters such as Leveling Up and Social Care.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for not giving you the facts.
I can imagine that reaction. It might not be fair or reasonable but if the others all feel fine it would be an easy instinctual reaction to be annoyed at facing disruption. Is that not part of the reasoning for anger at the pingdemic, that lots are told they need to isolate and being annoyed by that? (yes there are some real world effects too).
Seems natural if minority reaction to me.
I understand this reaction. Could you imagine if you have to cancel a holiday or attending a wedding because of this situation? Or, you are self employed and lose out on a job or otherwise fail to meet contractural obligations because of it? You could lose your entire livelihood because of this 2 weeks compulsory house arrest. You would just be mad as hell about it.
However, people should be mad at the policy and the out of touch government who introduced it - not the person who did the right thing and followed the rules. The policy is unworkable and should be scrapped immediately. Switch it to a recommendation to take a test and isolate until you get the result, and there is a better chance of long term compliance.
That was sort of my point. kle4 is right that it's natural to feel "I wish he hadn't said that!" but after a moment's reflection it should be clear that the issue is the policy and one's attitude to it. Either one feels that the Government's advice should be followed (either because one agrees with it or one simply is law-abiding) or one doesn't, but complaining about having the information needed to decide is irrational.
There are horrible videos coming out of Thailand. Some, allegedly, show people collapsing in the street from Covid, and later dying. Just like the original scary videos from Wuhan
You wobbling like a jelly yet again. Social media is not good for you, look for some nice stories with pets etc and cheer yourself up.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
Fair enough, that’s more encouraging
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?
Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.
Ah right, thanks. It did sound a bit flaky. But Leon - who for all his demerits is a genuine PB virushead - seemed to be giving it some credence and that worried me slightly.
I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.
I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
Greed and envy are not nice traits, you will be a pensioner soon enough.
Old voters expecting young people to give them benefits they've not paid for, by increasing the burden on the young paying even more taxes, is the real greed.
As a working pensioner, I think it'd be fairest to just put up income tax. If people are properly retired and maybe even just getting by on the National Pension, I wouldn't think it right to screw them, but just because I'm a healthy 71 and able to work, why should I be prioritised by an NI increase that I don't pay over someone who's 64?
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
Fair enough, that’s more encouraging
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?
Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.
Ah right, thanks. It did sound a bit flaky. But Leon - who for all his demerits is a genuine PB virushead - seemed to be giving it some credence and that worried me slightly.
He swings between hope and despair to easily. Needs more calm appraisal of all the data.
I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.
You wanted Boris to take those penalities?
I want to see him on his knees
before PM Gove
Yeuuugh
When I'm voting Blue All I have to do Is mark my 'X' by you And then I'm not so blue
When you're close to me I can feel your conceit I can hear you briefing 'gainst Sir Keir
Wouldn't you agree Baby, you and me Got a groovy kind of Gove
I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.
In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.
(For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus. Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome). “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.
Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?
Another Israeli thread:
‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply. I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason
‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’
There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?
Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence
Who knows. But I know this:
1. We should be vaxing under-18s 2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed 3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
No Jan was almost entirely Pfizer for the over 80s & vulnerable groups. AZ kicked in from Feb onwards.
Fair enough, that’s more encouraging
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
I'm off the pace on this development. Is there a whisper (or more) that the Pfizer wears off faster than the Astra or something like that?
Not really. Mainly a typical social media scare story about some limited data from Israel which is claiming Pfizer efficacy against infection is waning rapidly (but not against hospitalisation and death), and linked to delta. It seems unlikely.
Ah right, thanks. It did sound a bit flaky. But Leon - who for all his demerits is a genuine PB virushead - seemed to be giving it some credence and that worried me slightly.
He swings between hope and despair to easily. Needs more calm appraisal of all the data.
At least he’s not like LadyG, predicting two million dead in Britain alone.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
No, I can't imagine. You'd rather than someone who had inadvertently put you at risk would have kept it secret? I'd have refused to work with such a person ever again. I'd understand you deciding to break the rules and ignore the warning, but blaming the person who passed on the warning as required is just bizarre. Take responsibility for yourself, don't blame others for not giving you the facts.
I can imagine that reaction. It might not be fair or reasonable but if the others all feel fine it would be an easy instinctual reaction to be annoyed at facing disruption. Is that not part of the reasoning for anger at the pingdemic, that lots are told they need to isolate and being annoyed by that? (yes there are some real world effects too).
Seems natural if minority reaction to me.
I understand this reaction. Could you imagine if you have to cancel a holiday or attending a wedding because of this situation? Or, you are self employed and lose out on a job or otherwise fail to meet contractural obligations because of it? You could lose your entire livelihood because of this 2 weeks compulsory house arrest. You would just be mad as hell about it.
However, people should be mad at the policy and the out of touch government who introduced it - not the person who did the right thing and followed the rules. The policy is unworkable and should be scrapped immediately. Switch it to a recommendation to take a test and isolate until you get the result, and there is a better chance of long term compliance.
Both details and images are important. A world in which we see the Wembley crowd scenes, both there and across the country, and the nightclub stories while at the same time someone is forbidden from putting a flower on their mother's coffin at a funeral is not one where politics can be straightforward.
All over the place I am seeing both irrational exuberance and irrational over caution at the same time.
I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.
I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
Greed and envy are not nice traits, you will be a pensioner soon enough.
Old voters expecting young people to give them benefits they've not paid for, by increasing the burden on the young paying even more taxes, is the real greed.
In my youth, long, long ago there was an advert that I never forgot, from the Prudential. It was a series of comments by a man in various stages of life; at 25 he said 'they tell me there isn't a pension. At 45 he said 'I wish I'd signed up for a pension, at 55, I wish I could look forward to a pension, and at 65 'without a pension I really don't what I'll do.' Or something very similar. I worked for the family firm for a while and was always told;this is your pension;, but as soon as I had any power I started a scheme. Things didn't work out as they should have done commercially and I'm very glad I did so. I don't agree with the young being taxed more to pay for my pension; I worked after 65 and think I should have NI on my earnings then as I had before, and I believe 'pensioner benefits' should be allowed for in calculating my tax code.
Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.
Not yet.....Cumming's new project seems to be dismantling the Tory Party. One senior Cabinet Minister in a couple of weeks is progress. His next quarry is clearly Johnson. Obviously a tougher nut to crack but he's making progress. I'd like to see him and Starmer working to-gether. I think Cummings was hinting at it in the Laura K podcast. Cummings is just like a lawyer or adman. He doesn't care what side he's on or what he's selling he just likes the job and he's very good at it. I'd back him to get rid of Johnson before Starmer does
For Cummings successfully dethroning Boris would prove that he was the one who achieved Brexit
There is no doubt about that. If Remain had got to him first the result would have been different. Similarly if Labour had contacted the Saatchi's before Labour James Callaghan would likely have won the 1979 election and Maurice would now be a Labour Peer
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear.
Especially if covid is still hitting other countries - in Europe, USA, possibly Australia - hard.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
Which is quite amusing as in the 80s and 90s it was very popular in the US for their politicians etc to be railing against Japanese vehicles.
That’s because the American cars of the time were crap, in comparison to the Jap cars, but supported millions of jobs!
This was mostly resolved politically with the Jap companies opening US factories, but they only ever produced a few popular models - a lot of the more ‘exciting’ stuff never came to the States new.
American enthusiasts, of whom there are many, now have to wait for these cars to turn 25, so they can be imported as classics without US type approval.
The auction car linked by @Roger was a pretty rare car when it was new, and appears to now be a time capsule, with less than 100k miles and clearly having lived in a garage for most of its life.
The classic car market in general has been booming these past few years, a combination of a new generation of investors looking to buy cars of the ‘80s and ‘90s, and of a flight to assets as investments following the last recession. The art market has been the same, and we all regularly discuss the property market and stock market on here.
Oxford and AZ may have the last laugh then, if the rapid waning of Pfizer turns out to be real.
It could be the 12 week gap that's helping keep immunity going in the UK. In relative terms an 80 year old in the UK had their second dose in mid-March so had a 4-7x antibody boost just s few months ago. An Israeli 80 year old had their second dose in December. We may be seeing the efficacy of having just a t-cell and b-cell response in older people in Israel vs a neutralising antibody, t-cell and b-cell response in the UK for the same cohorts. That will absolutely change the final efficacy numbers, especially on symptomatic infection which appears to be the major difference (60% in Israel vs 85% according to PHE).
Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.
Not yet.....Cumming's new project seems to be dismantling the Tory Party. One senior Cabinet Minister in a couple of weeks is progress. His next quarry is clearly Johnson. Obviously a tougher nut to crack but he's making progress. I'd like to see him and Starmer working to-gether. I think Cummings was hinting at it in the Laura K podcast. Cummings is just like a lawyer or adman. He doesn't care what side he's on or what he's selling he just likes the job and he's very good at it. I'd back him to get rid of Johnson before Starmer does
For Cummings successfully dethroning Boris would prove that he was the one who achieved Brexit
There is no doubt about that. If Remain had got to him first the result would have been different. Similarly if Labour had contacted the Saatchi's before Labour James Callaghan would likely have won the 1979 election and Maurice would now be a Labour Peer
I’m assuming that second Labour is an awesome Freudian slip.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear.
Especially if covid is still hitting other countries - in Europe, USA, possibly Australia - hard.
The media have helped set a nice low bar for the government.
Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Or it might be a typical case of midterm blues, and we might see a year or two of labour leading in the polls.
He’s still in place because the MPs see him as a winner. At what point into those mid term blues do they get an itchy trigger finger?
This said, I am pretty bullish about the prospects for the end of the covid era in the West (excluding the southern / eastern countries of the “West”). That’s probably enough to get the incumbent over the line.
My guess is Boris will jump before he is pushed. It is reported that Boris is a very keen poll-watcher. His USP is never having lost an election and there is no upside to his brand or ego in endangering that record.
Tony Blair was similar in that regard although a lot more self-assured than Boris Johnson. Blair exited left (fast) before he could be beaten in the polls.
Carrie is the unknown factor. She's highly ambitious and I can't imagine her wanting to vacate Downing Street in a hurry.
I don't think these polls mean Johnson is going to lose in 2023/4. The newspapers who are now putting in the boot will probably do their usual volte-face and rally behind him.
However, and it's a big however, next time around Labour will have a leader who IS electable. Whatever you may think of him, Keir Starmer is not toxic in the way that Corbyn was.
I am beginning to think that Batley & Spen was like that moment when Sir Alex Ferguson was one defeat away from getting sacked by Man Utd.
Keir Starmer is not toxic *yet* but I expect the CCHQ under-the-radar social media teams will be ready to go to war against Starmer at the next election just as they did against Corbyn in 2019. We saw hints of attack lines being trialled early on, with Starmer as DPP being blamed for not prosecuting child groomers and rapists, and any other crimes that are particularly abhorrent. Whether he did or not is rather beside the point.
That would be a formidable attack line to enthuse the RedWall.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Um no. Hospitalisation and death are not much affected by the weather. Transmission is because of how we live in summer cf to winter. The cases to deaths ratio is tiny now. Thanks to the vaccines.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Which is why allowing Delta to seep through the country in the summer was the right decision.
So polling conventional wisdom says it takes 3 days for "an event" to percolate into the polling.
The fieldwork for this You Gov is 3 days after the Boris/Sunak will they won't they self isolate farce.
This is identical to what happened with the wall paper Proud proclamation that no one cares. Point to immediate polls that don't have the reaction to the event in to prove that no-one cares. Shitting it when the polls start reflecting the event. Bold swagger once the even fades after 7 days.
Seven days is how long an even takes to work out if it is a blip.
Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.
On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
Time to send Steptoe's horse into the sunset and go scrabbling around used car lots. I had no idea people were paying £40-50,000 for old Japanese bangers from the 80's and 90's that most of us would have thrown away for scrap
Anything over 25 years old has gone flying up in price, as the US market love old Jap stuff and they have a 25 year ‘classic’ import law.
Not my cup of Pocari Sweat but they are very desirable. They are quite slow and usually need a BEAMS swap to get the best out of it.
But an insurance write off in 2006!
The insurance company saw it as just an old car, they will have looked at the ‘book’ price and decided that the cost of respraying it was more than it was worth. This particular, well looked after and quite rare example, was indeed a future classic.
There will be a good story to be told, of how an old lady realised the car she’d owned her whole life was suddenly worth a fortune.
If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’
This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.
And ignore Dr Eric
Yes yes
These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE
However other experts are taking this very seriously
This guy is from MIT
‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’
So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) = 1.8 * (1 - 0.42) = 1.02 😮!
The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution. Hello March 2020.’
Our real world numbers disprove that. We've had a third wave of cases as big as the first wave at least. The hospitalisation and death rates are nowhere near as bad as March 2020.
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
Yes but regarding hospitalizations and deaths we have summer in our favour. The real test of the vaccines come later this year
Summer hampers transmission but it doesn't change the link between cases and hospital. Once you've caught Covid you can't ward off its effects by going out and having an ice cream.
Reports on FB that two out of our three local petrol stations are out of fuel due to lack of tanker drivers. People variously blaming pings and Brexit.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
The Government only has itself to blame for its stubbornness and stupidity in not simply dumping mass isolation for the fully vaccinated, rather than pursuing this August 16th pantomime. Beyond the fact that it's questionable how much good test and trace ever did in the first place - I seem to recall Whitty, or some such eminent figure, telling us that contact tracing could be important at low levels of disease prevalence but of very little use during a mass outbreak - any good that's done by locking all these people up is liable to be outweighed by the harm caused.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
If the decline in the Tory vote share is real, and not an outlier, I suspect it has little to do with tax rises, Cummings, alleged supermarket shortages, or even pinging.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Possible but just as likely the drip drip drip has finally overflowed the bath and the realisation that Johnson is a fraud and a callous and useless buffoon is not funny anymore.
The classic car market in general has been booming these past few years, a combination of a new generation of investors looking to buy cars of the ‘80s and ‘90s, and of a flight to assets as investments following the last recession. The art market has been the same, and we all regularly discuss the property market and stock market on here.
A 2010-13 550-2/560-4 manual Gallardo would be a very decent investment (as long you don't crash it). The last manual Ferraris have exploded in value and the Lambos will inevitably be next.
McLarens go the other way. The CEO of McLaren Automotive was selling his 720 and it lost nearly £100,000 in value in less than two years. Depreciating at a grand a week!
Comments
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1418560448421580805
I wonder how much sequencing the Israelis are doing? Perhaps the rise in infections even amongst jabbed is simply because they’ve now got Delta. Surely they’ve checked for that?
@JamesWard73
·
14h
so now my overall R estimate for England is poised at a tantalising 1.01.
We thought he was being responsible.
before PM Gove
Yeuuugh
We know BoZo didn't think Brexit was a good idea, but he thought it was a good way to become party leader.
Cummings didn't think Brexit was a good idea either, he just hates the people who were against it.
Two people who trashed a Nation for personal satisfaction.
Tragic.
“It came from Boris,” a source said. “Nobody thought it was a good idea.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/99033f18-eb92-11eb-baaa-861dba20d87a?shareToken=1d89b716eb95a32231a97aa01f741681
WTAF
The German Experiment That Placed Foster Children with Pedophiles
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/07/26/the-german-experiment-that-placed-foster-children-with-pedophiles
Polybius: not keeping perfect notes but some on what's included in one edition but not the other.
Oxford so far doing better, it seems, but there are multiple chapters (books, technically) ahead that Penguin has and Oxford doesn't.
I have to say that omitting the Social War (Greek 2nd century BC, not the Roman conflict of the same name a century or so later) but including the section on silt deposits in the Black Sea is not necessarily a balance I would have struck.
"I'm not being stuck in self isolation for two weeks in that pokey flat listening to you yelling 'Action this day!' at Zoom all day long."
Seems natural if minority reaction to me.
I suspect that it's simply that a lot of people, not widely represented on here, are somewhat sceptical about setting people 'free' and loosening Covid restrictions even further at exactly the same time as cases are (were) rising fast and there are increases in hospitalisations and deaths, and before everybody (eligible and willing) has had their two vaccine doses. For some, the policy seems like madness.
If/when delta declines and then disappears, I'd expect a large Tory lead to reappear. Whenever Covid disappears from centre stage, the government will get a huge boost and will be forgiven everything. But then, gradually, other matters will come into play. Of course if Covid doesn't disappear from centre stage, then who knows?
Edit: Kurt walker:
https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/other-sport/boxing/kurt-walker-dreaming-big-again-23396792
Fortunately mother and baby were fine.
We will be boosting into the autumn.
I’d also note that even if true, the protection against hospitalisation and death is not affected. This is all we need realistically to avoid having to close down society again. But I don’t believe the data you are quoting will be bourne out. Remember the AZ efficacy against the SA variant? False. Remember Macron? Lies.
Too often we get opinion poll led "leadership". That's not what we need right now.
If this is a widespread phenomena, then it will have cut-through.
Boris Johnson: 36% (-10)
Keir Starmer: 28% (+7)
via @JLPartnersPolls, Jul
Chgs. w/ Apr
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/most-voters-now-oppose-government-s-covid-19-response
And once again, antibodies are not the whole extent of the immune system.
Plus we've followed a different dosing regimen that there's reason to believe will give better long-term immunity. At no stage has Israel ever administered more doses than the UK has - so the Israeli data was more interesting as to 'herd' effects early on before we'd done everyone, but its rather meaningless now.
Just commenting on the social dynamics in the workplace and the general impact given the way the pingdemic is in the news. Is it rational to be annoyed? Probably not entirely, but I do have some sympathy for double vaccinated people feeling they have to self isolate (regardless of the strict legal obligation) but being annoyed at their colleagues for effectively going out searching for the virus (i.e. asymptomatic testing).
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/auctions/1987-toyota-corolla-ae86-gt-Dn7b6g
However, people should be mad at the policy and the out of touch government who introduced it - not the person who did the right thing and followed the rules. The policy is unworkable and should be scrapped immediately. Switch it to a recommendation to take a test and isolate until you get the result, and there is a better chance of long term compliance.
Threats to petrol supplies are a notorious temporary shifter of opinion. The latest two polls don't yet indicate a firm increase in Labour support.
At this moment I guess that Tory support is flat because of the people who withdraw support as the government is unlocking too fast and not fast enough; rather as Labour support is flat because it is too left and not left enough.
However Boris's wheels must come off sometime. I don't think it is yet....
Finally, I don't think a time can be predicted yet or foreseeably when Covid is not the big (though interminably dull) story.
I daresay others can correct me / expand on it.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/olympics-medal-count/
He needs to lead the country out of restrictions not cower behind opinion polls until they turn and then act too late.
The Conservative's poll lead has slumped to it's lowest in six months, Yougov poll for Times finds
Tory support is at 38%, down 6 points, while Labour is up three points to 34%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-poll-lead-over-labour-collapses-as-battle-looms-on-tax-rises-rcfj5329r
@hzeffman Boris Johnson also facing Cabinet backlash over plans to raise National Insurance to fund social care
'There is no way there is a majority in Cabinet in favour of this,' one minister said.
'This is a generational question. We cannot force young people to shoulder the burden'
Not my cup of Pocari Sweat but they are very desirable. They are quite slow and usually need a BEAMS swap to get the best out of it.
Something is afoot. Polling tie on the cards!
https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/
All I have to do
Is mark my 'X' by you
And then I'm not so blue
When you're close to me
I can feel your conceit
I can hear you briefing
'gainst Sir Keir
Wouldn't you agree
Baby, you and me
Got a groovy kind of Gove
A reduction in transmission of 60% is still fine and that's before we get to any August/September booster programme.
I think people need to get some perspective. The vaccine was never going to be 100% effective. All it needed to do was to prevent large numbers of people from turning up to hospital and all three of our main vaccines do that. If we see signs of waning efficacy then a third dose of AZ (50m available), Pfizer (60m available) or Moderna (10m available) will reverse that.
I'm not sure why you're ignoring the real world data coming out of this country, Canada, the US and loads of European countries and instead focussing on Israel who are at the start of their third wave and will have low absolute numbers.
All over the place I am seeing both irrational exuberance and irrational over caution at the same time.
Or something very similar.
I worked for the family firm for a while and was always told;this is your pension;, but as soon as I had any power I started a scheme. Things didn't work out as they should have done commercially and I'm very glad I did so.
I don't agree with the young being taxed more to pay for my pension; I worked after 65 and think I should have NI on my earnings then as I had before, and I believe 'pensioner benefits' should be allowed for in calculating my tax code.
Especially if covid is still hitting other countries - in Europe, USA, possibly Australia - hard.
This was mostly resolved politically with the Jap companies opening US factories, but they only ever produced a few popular models - a lot of the more ‘exciting’ stuff never came to the States new.
American enthusiasts, of whom there are many, now have to wait for these cars to turn 25, so they can be imported as classics without US type approval.
The auction car linked by @Roger was a pretty rare car when it was new, and appears to now be a time capsule, with less than 100k miles and clearly having lived in a garage for most of its life.
The classic car market in general has been booming these past few years, a combination of a new generation of investors looking to buy cars of the ‘80s and ‘90s, and of a flight to assets as investments following the last recession. The art market has been the same, and we all regularly discuss the property market and stock market on here.
The fieldwork for this You Gov is 3 days after the Boris/Sunak will they won't they self isolate farce.
This is identical to what happened with the wall paper
Proud proclamation that no one cares.
Point to immediate polls that don't have the reaction to the event in to prove that no-one cares.
Shitting it when the polls start reflecting the event.
Bold swagger once the even fades after 7 days.
Seven days is how long an even takes to work out if it is a blip.
There will be a good story to be told, of how an old lady realised the car she’d owned her whole life was suddenly worth a fortune.
One theory I've heard promulgated is that the Government is only continuing to peddle self-isolation for the double-vaxxed for political reasons, i.e. ministers know it's virtually useless from the public health POV, but they want to try to convince the public that the colossal sum spent on test and trace wasn't a total waste of money. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
McLarens go the other way. The CEO of McLaren Automotive was selling his 720 and it lost nearly £100,000 in value in less than two years. Depreciating at a grand a week!