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They Gush over Truss: Betting on the next Tory Leader – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    This seems to be the thinking:

    Prof. Anthony Harnden is on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation and he advises the government on the vaccine rollout.

    He says: "The data suggests very strongly that the longer you leave that second dose, the better longer term protection you will have.

    "There is a sort of sweet spot from about eight weeks onwards, and we wouldn't advise anybody to really have the second dose before then."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-57682233

    I don't know about this but wouldn't a second dose after 3 weeks rather than 8 weeks give quicker short term protection at the cost of worse long term protection ?
    For the people getting it now it really doesn't matter, the gain is better in the short term to reduce spread.
    With a 3 week gap my 18 Yr old niece could be fully vaxxed by the 20th. That's likely around the same time my 34 yr old partner will actually be vaccinated second time.
    I doubt there is the supply to fully drop to 3 weeks but with reducing 1st demand the headway that could be made into 20 year olds is astounding, particularly as that's the age group that will be out and about the most with no restrictions.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    A couple of years ago I was walking though Liverpool when I came across an orange order march in the wild. They looked utterly glum and subdued; funereal.

    At least this bunch look like they're having fun...
    Perhaps it's joy at hearing about their new big gun supporter

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Foxy said:

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
    I don't think I qualify as "the left". My issue with the likes of Starbucks is the stupid amount they charge for ok coffee combined with their mysterious lack of profit from selling said coffee meaning no tax paid.
    I agree, my dislike is the usage of non recycling paper cups too for their overpriced confections.

    I have no problem with enjoying a well made coffee, sitting down out of a proper cup with friends, indeed it is quite the pleasure. Walking round with a takeaway is just naff. As a general rule it is good manners that food and drink should not be taken while moving around.
    I have to agree: when I want a coffee I normally want to sit and drink it in comfort. In fact the I regard the price of the coffee as the rent I paying on somewhere comfortable to sit while I do the crossword.
    When I used to travel round for work I found a few hotel lobbies were the best - pot of coffee quiet seat and WiFi for as long as I needed it for £8-10.
    Yep. When you travel lots, a decent hotel lobby or a coffee shop is a cheap place to sit for an hour or two, with parking and good wifi, to get done whatever work you need to do.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 948
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
    But there Is No Risk. So what that there could be 100k new cases a day. Nobody is going to hospital and die, well OK some people are going to get ill and die, and more people are going to suffer the as yet partially known hell of long Covid.

    But none of that matters, the PM needs to be popular, and the plebs need to get back into Starbucks to buy their £4 burnt brown water on their way into the office. So get on with it lower orders. And stop talking about science and medicine and other stupid excuses. We've had enough of experts.
    More just what used to be traditional good manners. We should not impose our choices on other people. So if anti-social anti-maskers pile onto a tube tain, what can you do other than get off?

    Somethings are free decisions, such as maskless pubs or nightclubs, or having house parties and I have no problems with those rules being applied.

    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.
    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.

    Are you prepared to pay extra for so doing ?
    I would suggest that businesses set their own rules, and choose themselves. Some pubs might like to have a mask free bar, and a socially distanced saloon with table service, or a supermarket to have masked mornings and mask free afternoons, so as to cater to both groups.

    It would be fascinating to see that play out, and after the 19th it might occur (until then, no such option by law). AFAIK there is nothing to stop businesses which chose to requiring people to still wear masks. If they want to, they are free to insist on clown shoes or a trilby hat as part of the dress code as well (and this isn't anything new).

    What I think we will see in practice is revealed preferences - almost everybody will go to the unmasked establishments, and the masked variety will disappear in short order, or becomes a token hour in the morning.
    The only way this doesn't occur will be if the supermarkets behave like cartels, and all insist on masks at all times.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
    But there Is No Risk. So what that there could be 100k new cases a day. Nobody is going to hospital and die, well OK some people are going to get ill and die, and more people are going to suffer the as yet partially known hell of long Covid.

    But none of that matters, the PM needs to be popular, and the plebs need to get back into Starbucks to buy their £4 burnt brown water on their way into the office. So get on with it lower orders. And stop talking about science and medicine and other stupid excuses. We've had enough of experts.
    More just what used to be traditional good manners. We should not impose our choices on other people. So if anti-social anti-maskers pile onto a tube tain, what can you do other than get off?

    Somethings are free decisions, such as maskless pubs or nightclubs, or having house parties and I have no problems with those rules being applied.

    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.
    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.

    Are you prepared to pay extra for so doing ?
    I would suggest that businesses set their own rules, and choose themselves. Some pubs might like to have a mask free bar, and a socially distanced saloon with table service, or a supermarket to have masked mornings and mask free afternoons, so as to cater to both groups.

    Mrs Foxy is off to London with her cousin today, to see Foxjr2 in his play, now nearly sold out. Travelling First Class on the train, so socially distanced, FFP3 mask for the tube.
    I totally agree.

    I'm all for businesses providing options and allowing people to make choices.

    But is there anything stopping them from so doing ?
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
    But there Is No Risk. So what that there could be 100k new cases a day. Nobody is going to hospital and die, well OK some people are going to get ill and die, and more people are going to suffer the as yet partially known hell of long Covid.

    But none of that matters, the PM needs to be popular, and the plebs need to get back into Starbucks to buy their £4 burnt brown water on their way into the office. So get on with it lower orders. And stop talking about science and medicine and other stupid excuses. We've had enough of experts.
    More just what used to be traditional good manners. We should not impose our choices on other people. So if anti-social anti-maskers pile onto a tube tain, what can you do other than get off?

    Somethings are free decisions, such as maskless pubs or nightclubs, or having house parties and I have no problems with those rules being applied.

    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.
    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.

    Are you prepared to pay extra for so doing ?
    I would suggest that businesses set their own rules, and choose themselves. Some pubs might like to have a mask free bar, and a socially distanced saloon with table service, or a supermarket to have masked mornings and mask free afternoons, so as to cater to both groups.

    Mrs Foxy is off to London with her cousin today, to see Foxjr2 in his play, now nearly sold out. Travelling First Class on the train, so socially distanced, FFP3 mask for the tube.
    I totally agree.

    I'm all for businesses providing options and allowing people to make choices.

    But is there anything stopping them from so doing ?
    Nope, it’s up to businesses to give their customers what they want. If TfL and the Mayor (or, more likely, the RMT) want to make masks compulsory, they’re free to do so.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Venit domum, triginta post annos doloris
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    This seems to be the thinking:

    Prof. Anthony Harnden is on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation and he advises the government on the vaccine rollout.

    He says: "The data suggests very strongly that the longer you leave that second dose, the better longer term protection you will have.

    "There is a sort of sweet spot from about eight weeks onwards, and we wouldn't advise anybody to really have the second dose before then."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-57682233

    I don't know about this but wouldn't a second dose after 3 weeks rather than 8 weeks give quicker short term protection at the cost of worse long term protection ?
    For the people getting it now it really doesn't matter, the gain is better in the short term to reduce spread.
    With a 3 week gap my 18 Yr old niece could be fully vaxxed by the 20th. That's likely around the same time my 34 yr old partner will actually be vaccinated second time.
    I doubt there is the supply to fully drop to 3 weeks but with reducing 1st demand the headway that could be made into 20 year olds is astounding, particularly as that's the age group that will be out and about the most with no restrictions.
    I though for a minute you'd gone all Leon-ine on us.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701
    theProle said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
    But there Is No Risk. So what that there could be 100k new cases a day. Nobody is going to hospital and die, well OK some people are going to get ill and die, and more people are going to suffer the as yet partially known hell of long Covid.

    But none of that matters, the PM needs to be popular, and the plebs need to get back into Starbucks to buy their £4 burnt brown water on their way into the office. So get on with it lower orders. And stop talking about science and medicine and other stupid excuses. We've had enough of experts.
    More just what used to be traditional good manners. We should not impose our choices on other people. So if anti-social anti-maskers pile onto a tube tain, what can you do other than get off?

    Somethings are free decisions, such as maskless pubs or nightclubs, or having house parties and I have no problems with those rules being applied.

    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.
    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.

    Are you prepared to pay extra for so doing ?
    I would suggest that businesses set their own rules, and choose themselves. Some pubs might like to have a mask free bar, and a socially distanced saloon with table service, or a supermarket to have masked mornings and mask free afternoons, so as to cater to both groups.

    It would be fascinating to see that play out, and after the 19th it might occur (until then, no such option by law). AFAIK there is nothing to stop businesses which chose to requiring people to still wear masks. If they want to, they are free to insist on clown shoes or a trilby hat as part of the dress code as well (and this isn't anything new).

    What I think we will see in practice is revealed preferences - almost everybody will go to the unmasked establishments, and the masked variety will disappear in short order, or becomes a token hour in the morning.
    The only way this doesn't occur will be if the supermarkets behave like cartels, and all insist on masks at all times.
    Personally, I dislike queues more than I dislike masks.
    So if, for example, choosing between Greggs, Subway and the chippy, I would pick the shortest queue, irrespective of whether it was masked or not.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Truss will be remembered for killing off any realistic chance of Rejoin. It will involve dismantling too many other trade deals she has put in place, even if the EU decided to do away with united states ambitions and just become a trade body again, a la the EEC.

    For that, the Party will love her.

    I thought all her deals, except the recent Aussie one, were the EU arrangements rewritten for the UK.
    Is the prosaic truth of the matter.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    If you were here yesterday you will have seen I asked the same question about a dozen times. I'm sure HYUFD does read the posts but is incapable of taking in contradictory data to his view or the application of logic. All responses will just be to repeat the same words over and over again. The fact that the article contains data that contradicts his view won't be addressed. It will be ignored and his previous posts ignoring it will be repeated.

    It is a shame as there is no reason why he couldn't put a counter argument. See yesterday; there were plenty of rational arguments against my position that could have been argued. I even tried putting a few up for him.
    No, I just have my own views and refuse to change them to suit you.

    Your argument yesterday was essentially that mortgage and rent paying taxpayers should continue to subsidise an earnings related increase in state pensions rather than an inflation related one.

    There is no logic which automatically means that your view is always right as you always assume in your sometimes rather patronising way and certainly no logic that the average taxpayer must accept funding earnings related rises in the state pension for pensioners who own their own property and have substantial private pensions too. As I stated poorer pensioners who still rent could be helped with higher pension credit or higher housing benefit rather than across the board earnings related increases in the state pension as you advocated
    I'm not going to get into this discussion again but your post again demonstrates that you do appear not to read the posts you you respond to (I'm sure you do), because you often completely misunderstand them.

    a) Not asking you to change your view. Your position (as I pointed out several times yesterday and also in the post you have just responded to) is a perfectly valid one, but put an argument forward in support of it and respond to the counter arguments put to you. You never do. You just go on a mantra repeating yourself without responding to valid counter arguments.

    b) Re your 2nd sentence - No it wasn't. I was pointing out your position was irrational because earning increase faster than inflation which you were either denying or didn't understand the consequences of (I am guessing the latter). I will admit that is my position though, although it is far more nuanced than you have described which you should have seen when I replied to someone who did put a rational argument together and asked what I would propose.

    c) You don't seem to understand the difference between logic and opinion. We both have opinions and there is no right or wrong in either of our set of opinions. Yours are of course as valid as mine. Logic however is factual. So:

    If you apply logic to a fact it produces a fact
    If you apply logic to an opinion it is still just an opinion, the result is valid, but only based on the original opinion being valid and an opinion is still subjective

    If you state a fact or opinion but apply an irrational process to it you produce nonsense (although that could still be the correct result, but by luck).

    If someone challenges your opinion by applying logic to and that produces a nonsense result that should generate a discussion whereby you show their logic is faulty (yes we all do it). That was what I was doing yesterday and you never once countered my logic when I showed it produced a nonsense result. There were plenty of opportunities to do so. I even tried feeding a couple to you.

    I'm sorry if you find I am sometimes patronising. I am, so I do apologise. I am afraid the inability to put apply logic very frustrating, which puts me into that patronising mode.

    I have no problem with different opinions. I don't think I am always right. I am often wrong and I have made a few howlers on here which I have owned up to, and I to can be irrational, although when pointed out I hope I see it immediately.

    PS HYUFD I love your posts, but you do wind me up sometimes when you get into an argument with someone (even when I agree with you). And it isn't just me.
    Point taken but you know what I am like
    That is very sporting of you @HYUFD .

    PB would definitely not be the same without you whereas I don't think anyone would miss me so I'm probably on dodgy ground being patronising.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Slight variation from me from the majority view on coffee from cafes. I prefer a takeaway cup even if I'm having it there. Reason being I like to retain a sense of dynamism and transience and spontaneity about things. The notion that although I might be sat down and ostensibly settled I could at any moment jump up and leave. Indeed I often do this - drink half there and walk away with the rest, finish it on the move. You can't do this unless you have a paper cup. You're trapped.

    Very bad for the environment as 90% of coffee cups aren't recyclable and most aren't made from recycled paper either and use regulatory loopholes to advertise they are. If you're sitting in you should get a proper cup and saucer, if you need to leave you can always get them to put it in a paper one.
    Now now Max leave your authoritarian instincts at the door.
    I said should, not must. No compulsion, just strikes me as a but hypocritical from kinabalu who wants to advertise bow virtuous he is.
    It's good advice but asking for transfer into a paper cup halfway through is not very dynamic and spontaneous. It involves an interaction with the staff and possibly a need to queue again at the counter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    edited July 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Venit domum, triginta post annos doloris
    Ancient Greek may possibly be also relevant: Aeschylus saith:

    Ύβρις γαρ εξανθούσ᾽ εκάρπωσεν στάχυν άτης, όθεν πάγκλαυτον εξαμά θέρος.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    Totally agree and he never bull shits
    I also agree - though to be fair, Tory grassroots opinion is fairly often both ridiculous and impervious to argument, too.
    To work so closely with Tory grassroots must be hazardous, I hope proper PPE is provided.
    A mate of mine who’s a party member used to let me have sight of submissions from the grassroots via the Conservative Policy Forum. Pretty eye-popping stuff. My mate dismissed them as nutters. How we laughed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    edited July 2021
    It doesn't really matter what any of us think it's up to the reactionary lunatics, alcoholics, relicts and sex pests that make up the tory MPs. Would they elect Truss? It really doesn't feel like anything that could happen. I don't think Truss would demonstrate enough fidelity to the nationalist-populist nonsense which is now the party's pain quotidien and only route to another majority.

    I mean, has she even been photographed in an England shirt for fuck's sake?

    She was also sucking a batch out of another bloke on the reg and the tories apply a different standard to women in these matters.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    IshmaelZ said:

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Venit domum, triginta post annos doloris
    B+

    'Sex lustra' is far more elegant than 'triginta annis'
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
    But there Is No Risk. So what that there could be 100k new cases a day. Nobody is going to hospital and die, well OK some people are going to get ill and die, and more people are going to suffer the as yet partially known hell of long Covid.

    But none of that matters, the PM needs to be popular, and the plebs need to get back into Starbucks to buy their £4 burnt brown water on their way into the office. So get on with it lower orders. And stop talking about science and medicine and other stupid excuses. We've had enough of experts.
    More just what used to be traditional good manners. We should not impose our choices on other people. So if anti-social anti-maskers pile onto a tube tain, what can you do other than get off?

    Somethings are free decisions, such as maskless pubs or nightclubs, or having house parties and I have no problems with those rules being applied.

    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.
    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.

    Are you prepared to pay extra for so doing ?
    I would suggest that businesses set their own rules, and choose themselves. Some pubs might like to have a mask free bar, and a socially distanced saloon with table service, or a supermarket to have masked mornings and mask free afternoons, so as to cater to both groups.

    Mrs Foxy is off to London with her cousin today, to see Foxjr2 in his play, now nearly sold out. Travelling First Class on the train, so socially distanced, FFP3 mask for the tube.
    I totally agree.

    I'm all for businesses providing options and allowing people to make choices.

    But is there anything stopping them from so doing ?
    Nope, it’s up to businesses to give their customers what they want. If TfL and the Mayor (or, more likely, the RMT) want to make masks compulsory, they’re free to do so.
    Businesses giving options to their customers is providing them with what they want.

    If there isn't any demand for masked services then those options will not be used.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    It was the headline I was sniggering over, not the snide allusion to Sunak’s height.

    Was it deliberate or did TSE/Quincel just not think it through?

    This was all Quincel.

    I am shocked and appalled you could think I could come up with this headline.
    There's a poster who keeps talking about "wet finger in the air" estimates, which puts me in mind of Camilla jokes at which even you would draw the line.
    Nah, I'd be the wrong side of that line.

    I used have a client many years ago, in his 70s, who literally used to drop off about 20 bags of receipts in Tesco carrier bags to his accountants in his Rolls Royce, so his accountant could have a good fingering and tell him how much tax he owed that year.

    It took all my professionalism to not laugh at that, in said client's head, a good fingering was his accountant using his fingers on the computer and calculator.
    Many, many years ago my daughter, then in her mid teens decided she wanted to do articles in accountancy instead of going to Uni. Went to the interview, at a small, local firm with her, and the boss said something about 'sorting out the shoebox full of assorted till receipts and such which your client laughingly calls his records'.

    And, to be fair, over the years she did have clients like that.
    I spoke to a taxi driver during lockdown who was a bit bemused about how to declare his income and expenses for UC. He usually just gave his accountant a carrier bag full of receipts every year and paid as much tax as he was told to.
    My daughter ended up with a few clients like that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Will there be a reshuffle before Boris is replaced? Will Rishi be as good at the Home Office? Priti Patel at the FCO? And, on-topic, how will Liz Truss perform in a job that needs more than photo-op signing deals negotiated by diplomats and that largely duplicate EU deals.

    That's not correct. Truss has made consistent controversial choices in her new and planned trade deals with regard to agriculture, in each case putting zero-tariff free trade (more efficiency, lower prices) over maintaining high standards (better for farmers and welfare). I don't agree with her approach at all, but it's not trivial and it's properly Thatcherite.
    Whats our (Labours) policy on trade?
    It's to maintain tariffs on goods which fail to meet UK standards. It's an advantage of Brexit that we can do this - under EU rules, we had to accept anything with a zero tariff from an EU country even if it didn't meet UK standards (and the reverse - our standards are not always better). Outside the EU, we have a tariff wall which we can waive when we want to as part of a free-trade deal. Conservative policy (for Australia and probably for Canada, Mexico and the US, if they can) is to accept lower-standard imports without a tariff, in exchange for other benefits (access for our whisky, for example). Labour policy is to lower tariffs only where the standard meets UK standards.

    It's unusual in that it's an objective difference in policy which everyone would agree is a real difference and for which there are arguments on both sides. A quirk is that Northern Ireland is subject to free EU movement at zero tariff, hence the problem there.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Venit domum, triginta post annos doloris
    Ancient Greek may possibly be also relevant: Aeschylus saith:

    Ύβρις γαρ εξανθούσ᾽ εκάρπωσεν στάχυν άτης, όθεν πάγκλαυτον εξαμά θέρος.
    Latin? Greek? You are Boris Johnson AICMFP.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Leon said:

    Thailand deep into its new wave. Arguably its first wave

    Nearly 10,000 cases, nearly 100 dead, in a day

    Quite serious now. My friends out there say they expect another year of this. Meaning covid will have taken 2 years and 3 months out of their economy, with almost zero tourism

    How's the economy coping without tourism? [Serious question].
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Foxy said:

    Truss will be remembered for killing off any realistic chance of Rejoin. It will involve dismantling too many other trade deals she has put in place, even if the EU decided to do away with united states ambitions and just become a trade body again, a la the EEC.

    For that, the Party will love her.

    I thought all her deals, except the recent Aussie one, were the EU arrangements rewritten for the UK.
    Mostly, but some are subtly different. Import duties on Japanese cars go immediately, rather than phased out over a decade for example.
    Yes, the New Zealand deal is new too (it's innocuous since New Zealand's standards are pretty good, sometimes better than ours), and Britain is working on Trans-Pacific, Canadian and Mexican deals, as well as a big US one, though the chances of that are receding as the Congressional fast-track authorisation expires this week (after which any deal is subject to endless haggling and amendment in Congress, which everyone agrees makes a deal almost impossible). Biden could apply for a new authorisation, but that would be opposed by both Republicans and left-wing Democrats, for different reasons, so is not easy to get through Congress.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    It would be very interesting to know the proportions of unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and fully vaccinated among the new cases / hospitalisations / deaths.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 892
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,701
    Dura_Ace said:

    It doesn't really matter what any of us think it's up to the reactionary lunatics, alcoholics, relicts and sex pests that make up the tory MPs. Would they elect Truss? It really doesn't feel like anything that could happen. I don't think Truss would demonstrate enough fidelity to the nationalist-populist nonsense which is now the party's pain quotidien and only route to another majority.

    I mean, has she even been photographed in an England shirt for fuck's sake?

    She was also sucking a batch out of another bloke on the reg and the tories apply a different standard to women in these matters.

    Pain quotidien? Surely you're not suggesting Tories are masochists? La vice anglais.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Thailand deep into its new wave. Arguably its first wave

    Nearly 10,000 cases, nearly 100 dead, in a day

    Quite serious now. My friends out there say they expect another year of this. Meaning covid will have taken 2 years and 3 months out of their economy, with almost zero tourism

    How's the economy coping without tourism? [Serious question].
    Not very well, according to my relatives there.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
  • MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k potential cases, 600 confirmed and among confirmed cases their viral load is very very low meaning much lower chance of passing it on. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
    But there Is No Risk. So what that there could be 100k new cases a day. Nobody is going to hospital and die, well OK some people are going to get ill and die, and more people are going to suffer the as yet partially known hell of long Covid.

    But none of that matters, the PM needs to be popular, and the plebs need to get back into Starbucks to buy their £4 burnt brown water on their way into the office. So get on with it lower orders. And stop talking about science and medicine and other stupid excuses. We've had enough of experts.
    More just what used to be traditional good manners. We should not impose our choices on other people. So if anti-social anti-maskers pile onto a tube tain, what can you do other than get off?

    Somethings are free decisions, such as maskless pubs or nightclubs, or having house parties and I have no problems with those rules being applied.

    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.
    I just want to be able to travel safely, in a distanced, masked environment, and to be able to do the same in essential shops. It is just good manners and consideration to do so.

    Are you prepared to pay extra for so doing ?
    I would suggest that businesses set their own rules, and choose themselves. Some pubs might like to have a mask free bar, and a socially distanced saloon with table service, or a supermarket to have masked mornings and mask free afternoons, so as to cater to both groups.

    Mrs Foxy is off to London with her cousin today, to see Foxjr2 in his play, now nearly sold out. Travelling First Class on the train, so socially distanced, FFP3 mask for the tube.
    I totally agree.

    I'm all for businesses providing options and allowing people to make choices.

    But is there anything stopping them from so doing ?
    Nope, it’s up to businesses to give their customers what they want. If TfL and the Mayor (or, more likely, the RMT) want to make masks compulsory, they’re free to do so.
    Depends whether mask wearing is a public health measure or a commercial decision.

    Are masks required to reduce incidence of infection? In which case it needs to be a government mandate.

    Or is a decision by the establishment whether its clientele prefer masks to be worn or not? I that case it's a commercial decision by that establishment.

    If a government says, we leave it up to the public and businesses to exercise judgment, it is in effect saying masks are not necessary.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248
    First time I've driven through north London in ages

    It is largely in ruins, especially anywhere touristy. North of Camden 40% of businesses are shut. Hampstead is about 20%

    God knows what the centre is like. Theatreland, the City...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    In Thailand news, 'inoculation with two doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine can boost the neutralizing antibody level to 80-90% and provide immunity to the Alpha variant of the COVID-19 virus to some extent, but cannot fend off the highly contagious Delta variant, which is becoming dominant in Thailand and many other parts of the world, said a prominent Thai doctor on Friday.'

    Which is quite alarming, given the number of people who have had Sinovac.

    Anyone know different?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
  • MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    Which we are miles away from with a third of the population not double jabbed at present.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248

    In Thailand news, 'inoculation with two doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine can boost the neutralizing antibody level to 80-90% and provide immunity to the Alpha variant of the COVID-19 virus to some extent, but cannot fend off the highly contagious Delta variant, which is becoming dominant in Thailand and many other parts of the world, said a prominent Thai doctor on Friday.'

    Which is quite alarming, given the number of people who have had Sinovac.

    Anyone know different?

    I have also read that. Disturbing
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
    Do you have data on that or is it like most of the experts on here that post their opinion as fact ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,701
    Casedemic?

    In spite of following well-informed discussions here about test'n'trace I still don't understand how any reliance can be placed on daily case numbers when the sampling methodology is so flexible. For example, testing is going to be stepped up in a known hotspot (Oxford)...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-57788697

    ...which can only result in more cases being identified.

    This is ok from a public health perspective if the tracing element can successfully dampen transmission. But it means the week-on-week raw case figures are bound to exaggerate the rate of increase. And this is being repeated in hotspots all over the country.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    edited July 2021

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Venit domum, triginta post annos doloris
    Ancient Greek may possibly be also relevant: Aeschylus saith:

    Ύβρις γαρ εξανθούσ᾽ εκάρπωσεν στάχυν άτης, όθεν πάγκλαυτον εξαμά θέρος.
    Latin? Greek? You are Boris Johnson AICMFP.
    Sorry, no: perhaps 'Pride cometh before a fall' would be truer to my United Presbyterian elder grandfather ...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    Which we are miles away from with a third of the population not double jabbed at present.
    It is the same maths, if different rates with single jabbed.
  • MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
    Do you have data on that or is it like most of the experts on here that post their opinion as fact ?
    Well we have the ONS data on antibody prevelence across adult ranges and broken down via fully vaccination / partial vaccinated / not vaccinated. There is no reason to believe to think children haven't had broadly similar levels of covid expose to.the rest of the population, especially given they have all been in schools passing around one another, compared to adults WFH.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 892
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
    Do you have data on that or is it like most of the experts on here that post their opinion as fact ?
    Well we have the ONS data on antibody prevelence across adult ranges and broken down via vaccination / not vaccinated. There is no reason to believe to think children haven't had broadly similar levels of covid expose.
    So the answer is no, you do not have the data but are interpreting other data in a way to fit your agenda.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Truss will be remembered for killing off any realistic chance of Rejoin. It will involve dismantling too many other trade deals she has put in place, even if the EU decided to do away with united states ambitions and just become a trade body again, a la the EEC.

    For that, the Party will love her.

    Further to my post earlier about how she is a good learner, she has learnt from the Brexit debates and divisions.

    Theresa May was the wrong person to lead the Brexit talks. She was a Remainer who viewed Brexit just through the prism of immigration and was seeking to 'minimise the harms of Brexit'. A least damaging Brexit is not what we voted for.

    Truss has gone the opposite direction. She was a Remainer who now says she was wrong to back Remain and is out there as hard as anyone seeking to maximise the opportunities from Brexit.

    That is the right attitude 100%.

    In a Biblical analogy, Truss is like Paul following a Damascene conversion. Politics very own williamglenn. 😉
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
    Do you have data on that or is it like most of the experts on here that post their opinion as fact ?
    Well we have the ONS data on antibody prevelence across adult ranges and broken down via vaccination / not vaccinated. There is no reason to believe to think children haven't had broadly similar levels of covid expose.
    So the answer is no, you do not have the data but are interpreting other data in a way to fit your agenda.
    What's my agenda?
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 892
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
    Do you have data on that or is it like most of the experts on here that post their opinion as fact ?
    Well we have the ONS data on antibody prevelence across adult ranges and broken down via vaccination / not vaccinated. There is no reason to believe to think children haven't had broadly similar levels of covid expose.
    So the answer is no, you do not have the data but are interpreting other data in a way to fit your agenda.
    What's my agenda?
    To ignore the negatives of the approach to removal of the restrictions, to under play those negatives and to dismiss anyone who dares suggest there are likely to be problems as an extremist.

    To dismiss those experts who actually do have the data, to make out this is a clear black and white issue rather than a hugely complex topic where everything is a balance of positives and negatives.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Thailand deep into its new wave. Arguably its first wave

    Nearly 10,000 cases, nearly 100 dead, in a day

    Quite serious now. My friends out there say they expect another year of this. Meaning covid will have taken 2 years and 3 months out of their economy, with almost zero tourism

    How's the economy coping without tourism? [Serious question].
    "Tourism and related businesses used to account for 20% of the country's gross domestic product. The Thai economy shrank 6.1% in 2020 due to a lack of tourists. On Wednesday, the Bank of Thailand lowered its economic outlook for 2021 and 2022 from 3.0% and 4.7% to 1.8% and 3.9% respectively, as it saw that the ongoing third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic would reduce the number of tourists the country could allow."

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Travel-Leisure/Phuket-to-reopen-for-vaccinated-tourists-without-quarantine-5-things-to-know2

    Also note:

    "From July 15, the kingdom is set to extend its island-reopening approach to Samui, roughly 250 km northeast of Phuket. Although visitors to Samui will not initially be able to travel freely around the tropical island like in Phuket, they will be able to move around the vicinity of their resort without confining themselves in their room, and travel farther in stages.

    The approach will be expanded to other islands such as Phi Phi, Ngai, Railay and Yao in southern Thailand from August, according to the Tourism Authority. The mainland tourist destinations of Chiang Mai, Pattaya and Buriram will start accepting vaccinated tourists from September. From mid-October, all parts of Thailand, including Bangkok, will be reopened to vaccinated tourists without quarantine."

    I'm thinking that a few weeks in the Land of Smiles could be very pleasant this Christmas.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Is it me or has it all gone a bit quiet at the heart of government as the media and medical war against freedom day intensifies.

    Is Boris wavering?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    That was awesome! Thanks for sharing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Is it me or has it all gone a bit quiet at the heart of government as the media and medical war against freedom day intensifies.

    Is Boris wavering?

    It's just you. Nobody's talking politics this weekend, something far more important is going on. Football's coming home.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm just hoping we reach herd immunity as quickly as possible, so we don't have to bother with silly ideas like passports for pubs and restaurants.

    90% of people have antibodies according to recent reports, so you'd think herd immunity can't be far off.

    90% of adults.

    Also, with an expected R of 7 with no restrictions in place, herd immunity is going to be almost 100% of people with anti-bodies, which may never arise as immunity slowly drops and people catch the virus, all be it mildly, a second and third time and continue to pass on the virus.

    You are going to have to reach >85% of the entire population unable to pass on the virus to reach herd immunity.

    Even double jabbed people, even people who have had it before pass it on at the moment.
    The amount of reinfection is absolutely minimal. ONS estimates 15k cases and among confirmed cases their viral load is very low. And double jabbed people passing it onto another double jabbed person is also incredibly rare, i believe they estimate chance 1 in 200k.
    Yes

    But they pass it onto the 20m of the population that are not double jabbed.

    But of those 20m a not insignificant amount have had covid already or will be double jabbed shortly.
    Do you have data on that or is it like most of the experts on here that post their opinion as fact ?
    Well we have the ONS data on antibody prevelence across adult ranges and broken down via vaccination / not vaccinated. There is no reason to believe to think children haven't had broadly similar levels of covid expose.
    So the answer is no, you do not have the data but are interpreting other data in a way to fit your agenda.
    What's my agenda?
    To ignore the negatives of the approach to removal of the restrictions, to under play those negatives and to dismiss anyone who dares suggest there are likely to be problems as an extremist.

    To dismiss those experts who actually do have the data, to make out this is a clear black and white issue rather than a hugely complex topic where everything is a balance of positives and negatives.
    For the record studies in Spain and India have found antibody levels among the child population match the antibody levels for adults. So its a reasonable assumption to extrapolate the ONS data and say there aren't 20m people out there waiting to infect.

    And as for ignore the negatives....you seem to missed me saying getting rid of masks, especially on public transport idiotic, opening up for unnecessary foreign travel, idiotic, etc. Large scale gathering without testing, really not a great idea and I won't be going.

    Independent SAGE are extremists though. Constantly shifting the goalposts.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555

    Is it me or has it all gone a bit quiet at the heart of government as the media and medical war against freedom day intensifies.

    Is Boris wavering?

    It's just you. Nobody's talking politics this weekend, something far more important is going on. Football's coming home.
    Yep, a couple of dozen unemployables kicking a ball around for a couple of hours is so vital to the world.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited July 2021
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Slight variation from me from the majority view on coffee from cafes. I prefer a takeaway cup even if I'm having it there. Reason being I like to retain a sense of dynamism and transience and spontaneity about things. The notion that although I might be sat down and ostensibly settled I could at any moment jump up and leave. Indeed I often do this - drink half there and walk away with the rest, finish it on the move. You can't do this unless you have a paper cup. You're trapped.

    Very bad for the environment as 90% of coffee cups aren't recyclable and most aren't made from recycled paper either and use regulatory loopholes to advertise they are. If you're sitting in you should get a proper cup and saucer, if you need to leave you can always get them to put it in a paper one.
    Now now Max leave your authoritarian instincts at the door.
    I said should, not must. No compulsion, just strikes me as a but hypocritical from kinabalu who wants to advertise bow virtuous he is.
    It's good advice but asking for transfer into a paper cup halfway through is not very dynamic and spontaneous. It involves an interaction with the staff and possibly a need to queue again at the counter.
    I am surprised that you are not the sort of person that has your own reusable cup.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    Vaccination rates will pick up once Delta is spreading wildly.

    It will be a bit late by then of course.
  • tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    I thought the exemption was only for those double jabbed health workers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    The government should have taken much swifter action on mandated vaccination for health professionals. It is absolutely inexcusable. They treat vulnerable people every day and we know there has been a large amount of spread within hospitals.

    I also can't comprehend how a healthcare professional can be antivax, even if they don't trust the government, they can read all the peer reviewed material, as they would do for any other medication.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    I'm losing track to be honest. I think Johnson/Javid have now decided to exempt everyone double jabbed from isolating but not until mid August. They are debating bringing that forward for healthcare peeps I think?
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 892
    edited July 2021

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    I thought the exemption was only for those double jabbed health workers.
    What I heard on the news this morning:

    Exemption for double jabbed
    Exemption for health care professionals

    That they are distinguishing between the two suggests that the latter exemption is for non-double jabbed health care workers (aka - anti-vaxxers).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    edited July 2021

    Is it me or has it all gone a bit quiet at the heart of government as the media and medical war against freedom day intensifies.

    Is Boris wavering?

    It's just you. Nobody's talking politics this weekend, something far more important is going on. Football's coming home.
    Johnson meets with science advisors on Monday morning for final review of data and a decision on what will happen on 19th.

    I expect some kind of muddy middle ground will now be found as throwing caution to the wind/restoring ancient freedoms is not playing well with the focus groups.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Truss will be remembered for killing off any realistic chance of Rejoin. It will involve dismantling too many other trade deals she has put in place, even if the EU decided to do away with united states ambitions and just become a trade body again, a la the EEC.

    For that, the Party will love her.

    Further to my post earlier about how she is a good learner, she has learnt from the Brexit debates and divisions.

    Theresa May was the wrong person to lead the Brexit talks. She was a Remainer who viewed Brexit just through the prism of immigration and was seeking to 'minimise the harms of Brexit'. A least damaging Brexit is not what we voted for.

    Truss has gone the opposite direction. She was a Remainer who now says she was wrong to back Remain and is out there as hard as anyone seeking to maximise the opportunities from Brexit.

    That is the right attitude 100%.

    In a Biblical analogy, Truss is like Paul following a Damascene conversion. Politics very own williamglenn. 😉
    Was Theresa May a Remainer? Until she writes her memoirs, istm May was a Leaver pretending to be a Remainer, or at best a Euro-Agnostic who, like most normal people, had not spent the last 30 years obsessing about bendy bananas and straight cucumbers. Wasn't she known as The Submariner by the Remain camp because, although ostensibly on their side, she remained submerged and said nothing?
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    I thought the exemption was only for those double jabbed health workers.
    What I heard on the news this morning:

    Exemption for double jabbed
    Exemption for health care professionals

    That they are distinguishing between the two suggests that the latter exemption is for non-double jabbed health care workers (aka - anti-vaxxers).
    You misheard.

    16th Aug is for double jabbed.
    Immediately it is double jabbed who are also health workers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    France's top health advisory body has recommended that Covid vaccines should be made compulsory for all health workers and other professionals working with at-risk groups.

    Telegraph blog
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    France has vaccinated 800k under 18s in the last three weeks but are still over 10m first doses behind the UK.

    They're going to experience the Delta surge about 3-4 weeks earlier than the UK in vaccination terms.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Truss will be remembered for killing off any realistic chance of Rejoin. It will involve dismantling too many other trade deals she has put in place, even if the EU decided to do away with united states ambitions and just become a trade body again, a la the EEC.

    For that, the Party will love her.

    Further to my post earlier about how she is a good learner, she has learnt from the Brexit debates and divisions.

    Theresa May was the wrong person to lead the Brexit talks. She was a Remainer who viewed Brexit just through the prism of immigration and was seeking to 'minimise the harms of Brexit'. A least damaging Brexit is not what we voted for.

    Truss has gone the opposite direction. She was a Remainer who now says she was wrong to back Remain and is out there as hard as anyone seeking to maximise the opportunities from Brexit.

    That is the right attitude 100%.

    In a Biblical analogy, Truss is like Paul following a Damascene conversion. Politics very own williamglenn. 😉
    Was Theresa May a Remainer? Until she writes her memoirs, istm May was a Leaver pretending to be a Remainer, or at best a Euro-Agnostic who, like most normal people, had not spent the last 30 years obsessing about bendy bananas and straight cucumbers. Wasn't she known as The Submariner by the Remain camp because, although ostensibly on their side, she remained submerged and said nothing?
    Well she was in the Remain camp but more importantly through her entire Premiership she never really grasped the concept of seizing the opportunities from Brexit like Truss has.

    Instead it was a miserly case of damage limitation while ending free movement. Completely miserable and wrongheaded.

    It seems to me she was a Remainer who was against free movement. That's all she seemed to give a damn about.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    Are you sure? Self-isolation is required following track and trace, as well as any number of vaguely described symptoms. Do they take vaccination status into account?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Off topic

    RIP Paul Mariner

    I recall a banner from the 1978 FA Cup. " Featherlite Mariner covers Big Willie" (Young). Well I thought it funny.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    I thought the exemption was only for those double jabbed health workers.
    What I heard on the news this morning:

    Exemption for double jabbed
    Exemption for health care professionals

    That they are distinguishing between the two suggests that the latter exemption is for non-double jabbed health care workers (aka - anti-vaxxers).
    You misheard.

    16th Aug is for double jabbed.
    Immediately it is double jabbed who are also health workers.
    here is the BBC report....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57786794
  • tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    Are you sure? Self-isolation is required following track and trace, as well as any number of vaguely described symptoms. Do they take vaccination status into account?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57786794

    Yes, it only applies to double jabbed health care workers.

    A quick look at the BBC news website shows this to be the case.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    That was awesome! Thanks for sharing.
    Baddiel shared it on twitter and I was quite surprised the video only had two hundred views! It was only posted today, but still..

    I hope it gets plenty more, and people have a look at the singer's youtube channel - she really does have a lovely voice
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    Meanwhile in the undrained swamp...


    "A BBC board member with close ties to Downing Street has been accused of attempting to block a senior editorial appointment on political grounds.

    Sources told the Financial Times that Sir Robbie Gibb issued a warning to the corporation after Jess Brammar, former editor of HuffPost UK and deputy editor of BBC Newsnight, became the leading candidate to oversee the BBC’s news channels.

    The newspaper claims that Gibb, who was Theresa May’s communications director during her tenure as prime minister, and helped launch the rightwing news channel GB News, told the BBC’s director for news and current affairs, Fran Unsworth, in a text message last month that she “cannot make this appointment”.

    Guardian
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Is it me or has it all gone a bit quiet at the heart of government as the media and medical war against freedom day intensifies.

    Is Boris wavering?

    More likely, are those who pull the puppet's strings wavering? Look what the UK's signed up to in terms of 'partnerships' with international organisations ... the soft and cuddly words hide an extremely sinister direction of travel.

    Buyer's remorse from a US (b?)millionaire who 'always got vaccinated' as that's what most well-off people did ...
    https://trialsitenews.com/should-you-get-vaccinated/

    This will set back medicine for decades once/if the news leaks out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    It annoys me a little bit that no one has been brave enough to point out that health professionals being exempted from isolation is actually an exemption for anti-vaxxers in the health professions as presumably they should all be double jabbed by now.
    I thought the exemption was only for those double jabbed health workers.
    What I heard on the news this morning:

    Exemption for double jabbed
    Exemption for health care professionals

    That they are distinguishing between the two suggests that the latter exemption is for non-double jabbed health care workers (aka - anti-vaxxers).
    You misheard.

    16th Aug is for double jabbed.
    Immediately it is double jabbed who are also health workers.
    here is the BBC report....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57786794
    Thanks for that. I swear that the news literally switched from doubled vaccinated (i.e. anyone) to health care workers without any mention of different points in time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Meanwhile in the undrained swamp...


    "A BBC board member with close ties to Downing Street has been accused of attempting to block a senior editorial appointment on political grounds.

    Sources told the Financial Times that Sir Robbie Gibb issued a warning to the corporation after Jess Brammar, former editor of HuffPost UK and deputy editor of BBC Newsnight, became the leading candidate to oversee the BBC’s news channels.

    The newspaper claims that Gibb, who was Theresa May’s communications director during her tenure as prime minister, and helped launch the rightwing news channel GB News, told the BBC’s director for news and current affairs, Fran Unsworth, in a text message last month that she “cannot make this appointment”.

    Guardian

    There's a simple solution to not have the state involved in a state broadcaster.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    edited July 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Truss will be remembered for killing off any realistic chance of Rejoin. It will involve dismantling too many other trade deals she has put in place, even if the EU decided to do away with united states ambitions and just become a trade body again, a la the EEC.

    For that, the Party will love her.

    I thought all her deals, except the recent Aussie one, were the EU arrangements rewritten for the UK.
    Is the prosaic truth of the matter.
    @NickPalmer

    Two day job questions on this, if I may. I'm looking for clear information.

    1 - Do you have an authoritative source that the Govt are accepting lower welfare products (say from Australia) at a policy decision level. I have not heard specifically, despite trying to find out.

    2 - Where CIWF stand on the EU move to let material from dead pigs be fed to chickens?

    EuCo are talking about scientific justifications, and the need to compete with lower cost producers.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/22/eu-to-lift-its-ban-on-feeding-animal-remains-to-domestic-livestock
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited July 2021

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    The Warwick model seems to have been predicting about 1500 hospital admissions and 9000 in hospital by now. Plus over 100k daily infections:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1409539902715445249
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    That was awesome! Thanks for sharing.
    Baddiel shared it on twitter and I was quite surprised the video only had two hundred views! It was only posted today, but still..

    I hope it gets plenty more, and people have a look at the singer's youtube channel - she really does have a lovely voice
    That's delightful. She does have a charming voice, and her arrangement shows the cleverness of the original composition; though I think I prefer hers...
  • MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    The Warwick model seems to have been predicting about 1500 hospital admissions and 9000 in hospital by now. Plus over 100k daily infections:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1409539902715445249/photo/4
    so you pick out the one out of many that over estimated and ignore the ones that under estimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    The Warwick model seems to have been predicting about 1500 hospital admissions and 9000 in hospital by now. Plus over 100k daily infections:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1409539902715445249/photo/4
    so you pick out the one out of many that over estimated and ignore the ones that under estimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
    And you pick out (without providing any details) the one that underestimated and ignore the ones that overestimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    The Warwick model seems to have been predicting about 1500 hospital admissions and 9000 in hospital by now. Plus over 100k daily infections:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1409539902715445249/photo/4
    so you pick out the one out of many that over estimated and ignore the ones that under estimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
    Which of the models does the Times claim the reality is exceeding? The LSHTM is the closer, but admissions in reality still lower, and significantly lower on cases / bed occupied / deaths.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Boris would be very appreciative of it, I am sure.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    kle4 said:

    Tres Leones - 3 Lions in latin.

    I'm impressed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgvPtHNpT4

    Boris would be very appreciative of it, I am sure.
    Indubitate :smiley:
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Is it me or has it all gone a bit quiet at the heart of government as the media and medical war against freedom day intensifies.

    Is Boris wavering?

    It's just you. Nobody's talking politics this weekend, something far more important is going on. Football's coming home.
    We could still lose you know.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited July 2021
    A couple of anecdotes. Yesterday I went on train trip from Woking to Weymouth (pulled by Bulleid pacific 35018) with seven friends. The company had indicated that due to ongoing restrictions they might have to cull some bookings, but from what I could tell, the train was at capacity and we had two tables of four side by side. Apparently we were supposed to wear masks on the train (when not eating and drinking - so about 10% of the time!), but only the on-board staff bothered and they didn't seem to be interested in trying to enforce the wearing of masks.

    I also noticed that the regular service trains on the West of England line (Waterloo to Exeter) and the trains between Weymouth and Southampton were fairly busy. Plenty on those trains were wearing masks, but many weren't.

    On another note, I'm going to The Open at Royal St George's (Sandwich, Kent) on Thursday. A friend of mine who was supposed to be going said he had a head cold so thought he'd take a test and, hey presto, he has COVID. So that's him out. I have to test negative within 48 hours of Thursday, so we'll see if my recklessness yesterday (and this evening at the pub) will cost me too.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,701

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    Is it possible that the criteria for hospital admission have been relaxed now that there's less pressure on staff and facilities? Also, current cases are younger people with a better prognosis and therefore more likely to benefit from hospital care if they have severe symptoms. Without a breakdown of the hospitalisation figures into age groups, vaccination status and pre-existing conditions it's difficult to infer much from the raw figures. And I wonder if the original modelling predicted a breakdown along those lines or just a headline figure. If it didn't it wasn't much of a model from a strategy perspective. The inadequacy of the raw figures, flexible sampling methodology and opaque modelling assumptions make the daily numbers a fertile basis for wishful thinking on all sides of the argument.
  • MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    The Warwick model seems to have been predicting about 1500 hospital admissions and 9000 in hospital by now. Plus over 100k daily infections:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1409539902715445249/photo/4
    so you pick out the one out of many that over estimated and ignore the ones that under estimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
    Which of the models does the Times claim the reality is exceeding? The LSHTM is the closer, but admissions in reality still lower, and significantly lower on cases / bed occupied / deaths.
    I have no idea, I really do not care.

    It explains a lot that you are not all over this though, if it were the other way around I have zero doubt you'd know exactly which models had over estimated the cases, you'd know who the individuals were who were involved and they would all be extremist zero Covidians according to some on here.

    Because these models provided you a comfort of conformational bias though there has been no such interest taken, not even bothered to find out which the models are since you've no reason to want to better understand them or challenge them.

    It's classical human nature, to seek out what you agree with and dismiss anything that counters your views, it's displayed in abundance on this forum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    French news:

    John Lichfield
    @john_lichfield
    ·
    7m
    Macron will also plead (again) with younger people to go and get jabbed. First vaccinations, in free fall since early June, are improving but still averaging less than 200,000 a day - half the rate in May. Figures for vax coverage for health professionals remain v poor.


    The health professionals thing is just bonkers.

    France has vaccinated 800k under 18s in the last three weeks but are still over 10m first doses behind the UK.

    They're going to experience the Delta surge about 3-4 weeks earlier than the UK in vaccination terms.
    France's European Commissioner for the Single Market was crowing yesterday about how many doses have been delivered, and said, "Now it's time to tackle vaccine hesitancy"...
  • MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's bizzare the 8 week rule is being strict enforced on
    i The portion of the population where a 3-8 week gap difference will make sod all difference
    Ii The vaccine primarily where it makes little difference
    Iii When first dose demand is dropping
    iv The JCVI is preventing new demand from under 18s.
    v It is being linked to external incentives

    Has no-one in Government considered this lot in the round ?

    I suspect slow Pfizer supply is driving this. i.e if they allow a three week gap now, it will be at the expense of those that got their first dose earlier, who will see their gap extend beyond 8 weeks.
    However, if the supply comes in batches, which I think it does, there is an argument for using the batch as quickly as possible, then closing the vaccination centre and telling people who aren't yet double-jabbed to come back in August
    It does and we'll probably have enough Pfizer and Moderna to do all current people twice by the end of July. Don't forget that the 60m H2 order has commenced and we're now into the second half of our Moderna order which necessitates second doses for Moderna people.
    Given the large number of unvaccinated among the under 30s you could argue that we shouldn't be trying to reduce infections among them if we want to reach herd immunity.

    And that giving greater long term protection by delaying the second dose for those who are vaccinated is also worth having.
    Why are people talking about herd immunity ?

    It won't be happening any time soon.

    Double jabbed people pass on the virus, as do people who have had it before.

    We need over 85% of people (assuming R0 = 7 in unrestricted conditions) to be unable to pass on the virus.

    We are miles and miles from that.
    Double jabbed get the virus at a much lower rate, and then also pass on the virus at a lower rate. That gives a compound impact on R.
    You're wasting your time trying to explain things to a zero covidian.
    Who is a zero Covidian ?

    This place is amazing, anyone who dares suggest that things are not as perfect as many like to make out are dismissed as extremeists.

    FWIW

    I agree with removing the restrictions, I agree with not forcing the wearing of masks.

    However, I am also quite capable of talking about the negatives of this approach without pretending everything is suddenly great again and this is going away leading us back to 2019.
    Who said everything is great again ?

    Because everything wasn't great beforehand, never has been and never will be.

    Life is about making decisions in an imperfect world, a world in which we all will at some point die.

    Its about weighing up the risks and rewards, the potential costs and benefits, of choices and dealing with what happens.

    With rights go responsibilities and with choices go consequences.

    And people will have many choices - whether to get vaccinated, where to go and what activities to do, whether to wear a mask.
    I see from The Times front page they report that the hospitalisations at present are worse than were predicted in the original modelling just two weeks ago.

    When it is the other way around that error is ceased upon by many on the forum as evidence of over cautious zero Covid scientists.

    When the error is this way around what does that make those same scientists and how come that kind of error gets far less mention on this forum ?
    The Warwick model seems to have been predicting about 1500 hospital admissions and 9000 in hospital by now. Plus over 100k daily infections:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1409539902715445249/photo/4
    so you pick out the one out of many that over estimated and ignore the ones that under estimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
    And you pick out (without providing any details) the one that underestimated and ignore the ones that overestimated.

    I am seeing a pattern here.
    Indeed.

    I am picking out evidence that modelling these things is very very hard.

    The fact that they are not all agreeing suggests that rather than some of the modellers having motivations to keep the nation locked down, that rather some will under estimate the risks and others will over estimate.

    It's what you'd expect when everyone acts impartially and independently on these very complex topics.

    All I see on this forum are those who over estimate the risk being challenged yet never those who under estimate it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    .

    Meanwhile in the undrained swamp...


    "A BBC board member with close ties to Downing Street has been accused of attempting to block a senior editorial appointment on political grounds.

    Sources told the Financial Times that Sir Robbie Gibb issued a warning to the corporation after Jess Brammar, former editor of HuffPost UK and deputy editor of BBC Newsnight, became the leading candidate to oversee the BBC’s news channels.

    The newspaper claims that Gibb, who was Theresa May’s communications director during her tenure as prime minister, and helped launch the rightwing news channel GB News, told the BBC’s director for news and current affairs, Fran Unsworth, in a text message last month that she “cannot make this appointment”.

    Guardian

    There's a simple solution to not have the state involved in a state broadcaster.
    The one thing that does irritate me greatly is when the BBC is interviewing someone from, say, RT and accuses them of being obviously biased because they are a state broadcaster.
This discussion has been closed.