They Gush over Truss: Betting on the next Tory Leader – politicalbetting.com
They Gush over Truss: Betting on the next Tory Leader – politicalbetting.com
As previously discussed, I suspect Boris Johnson won’t be departing Downing Street very soon – but one day he will. And while bets which are for long and uncertain durations aren’t ideal, there may be value in betting on his successor.
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Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.
If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss
Was it deliberate or did TSE/Quincel just not think it through?
The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.
Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.
The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).
It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.
The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
If we're going to keep it then I'd certainly like the monarchy trimmed down to bare essentials. No more than half a dozen royals on the payroll (currently HMQ, Charles & Camilla and the Cambridges) and one town house, one country house.
Morning all.
One of our current gypsy sites has blighted an entire road of mainly old people's bungalows for the last 2 years - delightful 1967 development which normally sell in days. I got one of those nearby 5 years ago by making a cash offer-with-proof by lunchtime on the first day. One backing onto the site has had 3 or 4 sales fall through this summer, in the current market. I am selling mine and I am told to set the price at +25% on the one by the camp and it will sell instantly.
A smallish piece of land which had been properly purchased was then unlawfully developed. Multiple developments without Planning. Significantly high sheds and fences put up against the tiny gardens of small bungalows. Appropriation and development of further land. Double the allowed occupancy. Blocking of public footpaths. Big dogs loose. Illegal renting. All after the Council miserably failed in their initial Enforcement attempt. That's basically the factual stuff without getting into speculation.
There are now hints about possible questionable practises amongst Councillors, including an amusing anecdote of how a Councillor's face dramatically fell on the videostream who had been trying to persuade planning committee to approve a permission there for new buldings conditioned to never be lived in, when it was pointed out that the buildings were already built and were already being lived in, and he lost the vote.
This one is not going away because it is a real problem, and will if anything help Anderson.
On the antisemitism claim it is of the "You were in a Facebook Group where somebody else said *this*" variety, followed by endless repetition of the racism allegation. Which may be something (if someone can show that) or it may be setting up and bedding in a straw man, like the endlessly repeated context-free tropes about Mrs Thatcher's alleged 'no such thing as society' remarks. Politically I'd see that as an attempt over a period to triangulate Corbyn's toleration of racism within Lab, whose own interactions with dodgy Facebook postings are afaik more blatant than Anderson's.
But we know that the Independent will write it, the Guardian will report it, and the Mirror will claim that it is true; whether it is exaggerated / true or not is an irrelevance.
The various other stuff - remedies for 'troublesome tenants', the current BLM 'one man boycott', are to me small bushfires. He's now one of those people where the Wiki consensus maintains a list of allegations in his Wiki page, and he does not seem to be interested in any abuse criticism.
For the record at the last election I voted for Jason Zadrozny, not Anderson.
My take.
gay in the villagetrue Tory.Tories have enough awareness to tell JRM to take a long foreign holiday whenever there is an election on. They aren’t going to make him leader.
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536
That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
Which media then blame politicians for.
What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re unvaccinated?
If you’ve not yet been vaccinated, then the symptoms are more recognisable to the traditional original ranking, however we can still observe some changes from when COVID-19 first appeared over a year ago.
1. Headache
2. Sore Throat
3. Runny Nose
4. Fever
5. Persistent cough
Loss of smell comes in at number 9 and shortness of breath comes far down the list at number 30, indicating the symptoms as recorded previously are changing with the evolving variants of the virus.
What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’ve had only one vaccine dose?
The ranking changes again after one dose of the vaccination as observed below:
1. Headache
2. Runny nose
3. Sore throat
4. Sneezing
5. Persistent cough
As we can see, after the protection from only once vaccine, one of the original indicators of a persistent cough has made the top 5 symptoms, but still comes below sneezing and a runny nose in rankings, which were previously thought to be unrelated to infection.
What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re fully vaccinated?
Generally, we saw similar symptoms of COVID-19 being reported overall in the app by people who had and hadn’t been vaccinated. However, fewer symptoms were reported over a shorter period of time by those who had already had a jab, suggesting that they were falling less seriously ill and getting better more quickly.
Here is the current ranking of COVID symptoms after 2 vaccinations:
1. Headache
2. Runny nose
3. Sneezing
4. Sore throat
5. Loss of smell
The previous ‘traditional’ symptoms as still outlined on the government website, such as anosmia (loss of smell), shortness of breath and fever rank way down the list, at 5, 29 and 12 respectively. A persistent cough now ranks at number 8 if you’ve had two vaccine doses, so is no longer the top indicator of having COVID.
Curiously, we noticed that people who had been vaccinated and then tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to report sneezing as a symptom compared with those without a jab.
If you’ve been vaccinated and start sneezing a lot without an explanation, you should get a COVID test, especially if you are living or working around people who are at greater risk from the disease.
Truss as I said has some support mainly because of her trade deals, most of which were just carrying over trade deals the EU had already negotiated to the UK with the 1 exception of Australia and we wait to see how that goes down for farmers.
Her economic libertarianism and scepticism of the monarchy is also not the package to keep white working class voters in the Red Wall and without them the Tories would not win a majority again
If the Tories lose a general election or 2 I would certainly not rule the Mogg out, if they could make IDS their leader they could certainly make the Mogg their leader.
The Mogg has charisma whether you like him or not and appeals to the Tory base in much the same way as Corbyn appealed to the Labour base
So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
We blocked each other a while ago, which is for the better. There's no potential for any constructive discussion between us at this stage. Thus, I'd be grateful if you could stop screenshooting my tweets and pretending you're talking to me.
Thanks,
Francois
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1413689849123639304?s=20
But it's worth noting that any criticism of her comes back to that speech to Conference. While the speech was amusing, it was her first speech as Cabinet Secretary. Since then she's been in Cabinet for seven more years and nobody has anything new to criticise her with. That's rather remarkable!
By the time of the next election, which Boris will almost certainly be PM until, she will be one of the countries longest standing Cabinet Secretaries and have been in Cabinet for a decade.
So yes she has the necessary gravitas. She learns too, which is important.
More respect for him if he does.
I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.
I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?
Personally I think seeing how many people have worn masks outside is a good indicator of how people will really behave when covid restrictions go. This is barely 5% , never more than 10% even pre vaccination . Most people dont liek to seem callous when asked about lifting covid restrictions but often find themselves in real life situations where they dont follow the rules themselves - hancock ,cummings etc
Who has the longest consecutive spell in cabinet at the moment? Gove had a year out from 2014-15. Shapps had six months as Minister of State. Hancock has quit. May, Hammond and Hunt were I think the only ones there from the start by 2019.
Is it Truss? I think she might be the only one continuously in Cabinet since the Coalition days.
"He may not be scrapping ..." .. "So yes, they are scrapping".
The Govt is not responsible for drivel written in media, nor for commentators misrepresenting data to attack the Govt or scare vulnerable people.
That's it, really.
Priceless.
Edit - but I would you to choose your words more carefully, especially the ones in bold.
Churchill was indeed a liberal for a time but was also a great patriot and war leader and by 1950 pretty much in line with the post war Tory consensus
In fact, the closer parallel is to Hugh Cecil and Arthur Balfour, rather than to Gladstone.
I also fail to see how she would have much appeal in the Red Wall as a libertarian small state ex Remainer, indeed Mogg would probably have more appeal to the white working class Red Wall than Truss.
Having now embraced Brexit I also doubt she would win back many of the Home Counties and SW London Remainers now backing Starmer Labour or the LDs and she does not seem a great champion of the green belt but a pure free marketeer so she is not going to win back the likes of Chesham and Amersham either
Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...
Dido Harding’s retirement planTrack and Trace and then when people had seen it didn’t cause ‘bodies to pile up in the streets’ lift the rest a bit later.Apart from anything else, isolation must be the most ignored of all rules. Much harder to enforce than not wearing masks.
But equally, I would probably have followed the same process they are if I’d been in the same situation, so I’m not going to criticise.
It is a shame as there is no reason why he couldn't put a counter argument. See yesterday; there were plenty of rational arguments against my position that could have been argued. I even tried putting a few up for him.
Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
Your argument yesterday was essentially that mortgage and rent paying taxpayers should continue to subsidise an earnings related increase in state pensions rather than an inflation related one.
There is no logic which automatically means that your view is always right as you always assume in your sometimes rather patronising way and certainly no logic that the average taxpayer must accept funding earnings related rises in the state pension for pensioners who own their own property and have substantial private pensions too. As I stated poorer pensioners who still rent could be helped with higher pension credit or higher housing benefit rather than across the board earnings related increases in the state pension as you advocated
To what extent do you support or oppose the lifting of all domestic coronavirus restrictions on 19 July?
Strongly support 17%
Support 24%
Neither support nor oppose 19%
Oppose 21%
Strongly oppose 16%
Don’t know 2%
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1413762266877644801?s=20
Ironically, it is decadent - to drink something so milky after 1100.
It always depresses me that good food (or drink) is sneered at in this country.
As for polling I get that it is cautious. And that many on PB are not. But stepping outside it seems that "the country" is pretty incautious.
Politically for BoJo this means he can continue with July 19th to much if not all acclaim.
I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.
Even if they disagree with you
Bercow was a Tory MP and has now declared himself a leftwinger and supporter of the Labour Party.
Shaun Woodward was a Tory MP and Shadow Cabinet spokesman for London, defected to Labour and became a Minister under Blair and Brown and ended up Ed Miliband's Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary.
So not always and of course Truss used to be a member and activist in the LDs
Away with your "unlock, unlock" rhetoric.
Just a day before the big final. That's harsh, death.
I wrote a whole damn thread on the traditional threads in the Conservative party. That thread was really aimed at you personally! There are many streams of thought. The party’s success is because it can balance between these rather than become ossified into a narrow and exclusive mindset like you advocate
Agree, not for the first time, with Mr RP. I'm happy to identify as 'on the left' but don't like Starbucks for the same reason as him, and for the fact that their coffee comes at a temperature similar to that of molten lava. On the rare effusions I go into a Starbucks I have to ask them to drop a couple of lumps of ice into my Americano.
And I like drinking beer. Not at home though. I take the same view as Mr (I assume) "state_go_away" does about gambling; I like to drink it in pubs where I can chat to 'all sorts and conditions of men'.
Choosing someone in opposition like IDS or Corbyn is a mistake; it isn't a compulsory step oppositions must go through.
Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.
Or a very niche, surgical appliance centred kink.
Of those 11 only 2 won a general election to become PM, Blair and Cameron, with Smith possibly prevented from doing so by his early death and the verdict still out on Starmer.
Even if they do not always go as extreme as electing an IDS or Corbyn or Foot (or indeed on your view a Rees-Mogg) most opposition leaders do not become PM and the party is certainly capable of electing a leader who makes it feel good first rather than one targeted at floating voters.
There is not much that is conservative about the current Conservative Party. Too much trashing of British values such as the rule of Law, integrity in office, or even protecting of the physical character of the country.
I have been Green on Truss for some time. She has the same shameless ideology free opportunism and ambition as the current PM. That might count against her though, as leaders tend to be replaced by someone with plenty of the attributes seen lacking in the last one.
Is there no action that would allow redemption for those who dared to have been on a political journey and didn't emerge from the womb as a fully formed Tory patriot?
It just seems odd when the adaptability of the Tories is praised as one of its key strengths in retaining power.
I also expect Leavers to win the Tory leadership for at least the next decade or two, that would rule both of us out, though obviously I am not in contention as she might be
Though I doubt Mogg would become PM and certainly not in power, opposition leader maybe
Starbucks I don't mind that slightly acidic taste. Once a year. It is ruinously expensive.
Generally I find Café Nero does much better coffee, but chacun à son goût .
I have no problem with enjoying a well made coffee, sitting down out of a proper cup with friends, indeed it is quite the pleasure. Walking round with a takeaway is just naff. As a general rule it is good manners that food and drink should not be taken while moving around.
That is a rather separate issue to a view that decades of being a Tory doesn't make you a Tory, one area where as pointed out polls (or surveys at least) of party members seem to indicate the grass roots disagree, and dont care about.
They care about winning and appearing competent, not if someone has been consistent.
Astonishing that fools pay money for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus