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They Gush over Truss: Betting on the next Tory Leader – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 10 in General
imageThey Gush over Truss: Betting on the next Tory Leader – politicalbetting.com

As previously discussed, I suspect Boris Johnson won’t be departing Downing Street very soon – but one day he will. And while bets which are for long and uncertain durations aren’t ideal, there may be value in betting on his successor.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10
    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502
    It was the headline I was sniggering over, not the snide allusion to Sunak’s height.

    Was it deliberate or did TSE/Quincel just not think it through?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,380
    Does Truss have support?
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 10
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 10

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    She has gone up in my estimation!

    If we're going to keep it then I'd certainly like the monarchy trimmed down to bare essentials. No more than half a dozen royals on the payroll (currently HMQ, Charles & Camilla and the Cambridges) and one town house, one country house.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    7th.

    Morning all.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    edited July 10
    ..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    edited July 10
    MattW said:

    1/2

    On Lee Anderson. Some local knowledge.

    Firstly on traveller encampments.

    'Gypsy' or 'traveller' encampments are an issue here, and it won't go away. Murmurings of "it's just racism" seem to me to be diversionary BS. That's the kind of reaction that leads to remarks about 'wacism' - ie satirising largely performative claims of racism.

    Anderson whilst a Labour Councillor in 2018 put two hunks of concrete across a field car park entrance to prevent a traveller re-occupation of a vacated unlawful encampment. Very supported locally as it nipped a problem in the bud, but some people in local Labour, who controlled the District Council then, went a bit beserk. Notts County Council who owned the site were reportedly reluctant to secure it immediately or clear it up, and Ashfield fined him for 'fly tipping' for putting the blocks down. Personally I would support his action in that case if the circs are as reported.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5328791/Man-blocks-car-park-stop-travellers-setting-camp.html

    Obviously with Anderson it is a bit more spicy because he is seen as turning his coat to be a hated Tory. And further because he does not seem to give a hoot what the Liberal Left thinks.

    We have a number of occasions illegal encampments recently - including at least 3 in the last 3 years on the town's premier park with up to 15 caravans / vehicles.

    2/2

    One of our current gypsy sites has blighted an entire road of mainly old people's bungalows for the last 2 years - delightful 1967 development which normally sell in days. I got one of those nearby 5 years ago by making a cash offer-with-proof by lunchtime on the first day. One backing onto the site has had 3 or 4 sales fall through this summer, in the current market. I am selling mine and I am told to set the price at +25% on the one by the camp and it will sell instantly.

    A smallish piece of land which had been properly purchased was then unlawfully developed. Multiple developments without Planning. Significantly high sheds and fences put up against the tiny gardens of small bungalows. Appropriation and development of further land. Double the allowed occupancy. Blocking of public footpaths. Big dogs loose. Illegal renting. All after the Council miserably failed in their initial Enforcement attempt. That's basically the factual stuff without getting into speculation.

    There are now hints about possible questionable practises amongst Councillors, including an amusing anecdote of how a Councillor's face dramatically fell on the videostream who had been trying to persuade planning committee to approve a permission there for new buldings conditioned to never be lived in, when it was pointed out that the buildings were already built and were already being lived in, and he lost the vote.

    This one is not going away because it is a real problem, and will if anything help Anderson.

    On the antisemitism claim it is of the "You were in a Facebook Group where somebody else said *this*" variety, followed by endless repetition of the racism allegation. Which may be something (if someone can show that) or it may be setting up and bedding in a straw man, like the endlessly repeated context-free tropes about Mrs Thatcher's alleged 'no such thing as society' remarks. Politically I'd see that as an attempt over a period to triangulate Corbyn's toleration of racism within Lab, whose own interactions with dodgy Facebook postings are afaik more blatant than Anderson's.

    But we know that the Independent will write it, the Guardian will report it, and the Mirror will claim that it is true; whether it is exaggerated / true or not is an irrelevance.

    The various other stuff - remedies for 'troublesome tenants', the current BLM 'one man boycott', are to me small bushfires. He's now one of those people where the Wiki consensus maintains a list of allegations in his Wiki page, and he does not seem to be interested in any abuse criticism.

    For the record at the last election I voted for Jason Zadrozny, not Anderson.

    My take.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    An outrageous slur from yourself on @HYUFD. We all know that the essicks massiv is the only gay in the village true Tory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,764
    edited July 10

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    An outrageous slur from yourself on @HYUFD. We all know that the essicks massiv is the only gay in the village true Tory.
    He’s off on one again if he’s back touting that twat Mogg. That was a great betting lay that largely offset my failure to believe that Tory MPs would ever put a clown into Downing Street.

    Tories have enough awareness to tell JRM to take a long foreign holiday whenever there is an election on. They aren’t going to make him leader.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 70
    Liz Truss might be popular with the membership but do they see her as Prime Minister material? My impression is that she is a competent minister and something of a happy warrior which party members tend to like. However she does seem to fundamentally lack gravitas and she's a bit too keen to wander into a soundbite. The disgraceful cheese speech is very hard to forget. I think if she did run for the leadership she'd be a bit like Andrea Leadsom. Respected as a minister and well liked because she's happy to do battle in the media but just not quite imaginable in the top job.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 70
    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Liz Truss might be popular with the membership but do they see her as Prime Minister material? My impression is that she is a competent minister and something of a happy warrior which party members tend to like. However she does seem to fundamentally lack gravitas and she's a bit too keen to wander into a soundbite. The disgraceful cheese speech is very hard to forget. I think if she did run for the leadership she'd be a bit like Andrea Leadsom. Respected as a minister and well liked because she's happy to do battle in the media but just not quite imaginable in the top job.

    On the other hand, being a controversial sex maniac with a weird speaking manner seems de rigeur to be Tory leader these days.
    This is true. I sometimes think that I'm hampered by the fact that my formative years were when politics still by and large had established rules.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 14,593
    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    edited July 10
    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.

    Which media then blame politicians for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    Yet further confirmation her background is liberal not Tory
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,764
    edited July 10
    From ZOE:

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re unvaccinated?

    If you’ve not yet been vaccinated, then the symptoms are more recognisable to the traditional original ranking, however we can still observe some changes from when COVID-19 first appeared over a year ago.

    1. Headache
    2. Sore Throat
    3. Runny Nose
    4. Fever
    5. Persistent cough

    Loss of smell comes in at number 9 and shortness of breath comes far down the list at number 30, indicating the symptoms as recorded previously are changing with the evolving variants of the virus.

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’ve had only one vaccine dose?

    The ranking changes again after one dose of the vaccination as observed below:

    1. Headache
    2. Runny nose
    3. Sore throat
    4. Sneezing
    5. Persistent cough

    As we can see, after the protection from only once vaccine, one of the original indicators of a persistent cough has made the top 5 symptoms, but still comes below sneezing and a runny nose in rankings, which were previously thought to be unrelated to infection.

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re fully vaccinated?

    Generally, we saw similar symptoms of COVID-19 being reported overall in the app by people who had and hadn’t been vaccinated. However, fewer symptoms were reported over a shorter period of time by those who had already had a jab, suggesting that they were falling less seriously ill and getting better more quickly.

    Here is the current ranking of COVID symptoms after 2 vaccinations:

    1. Headache
    2. Runny nose
    3. Sneezing
    4. Sore throat
    5. Loss of smell

    The previous ‘traditional’ symptoms as still outlined on the government website, such as anosmia (loss of smell), shortness of breath and fever rank way down the list, at 5, 29 and 12 respectively. A persistent cough now ranks at number 8 if you’ve had two vaccine doses, so is no longer the top indicator of having COVID.

    Curiously, we noticed that people who had been vaccinated and then tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to report sneezing as a symptom compared with those without a jab.

    If you’ve been vaccinated and start sneezing a lot without an explanation, you should get a COVID test, especially if you are living or working around people who are at greater risk from the disease.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    The Tories have already won most seats for 4 general elections in a row.

    Truss as I said has some support mainly because of her trade deals, most of which were just carrying over trade deals the EU had already negotiated to the UK with the 1 exception of Australia and we wait to see how that goes down for farmers.

    Her economic libertarianism and scepticism of the monarchy is also not the package to keep white working class voters in the Red Wall and without them the Tories would not win a majority again
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    An outrageous slur from yourself on @HYUFD. We all know that the essicks massiv is the only gay in the village true Tory.
    He’s off on one again if he’s back touting that twat Mogg. That was a great betting lay that largely offset my failure to believe that Tory MPs would ever put a clown into Downing Street.

    Tories have enough awareness to tell JRM to take a long foreign holiday whenever there is an election on. They aren’t going to make him leader.
    Not in government no, Sunak remains the likely successor if Boris wins the next general election and departs still as PM.

    If the Tories lose a general election or 2 I would certainly not rule the Mogg out, if they could make IDS their leader they could certainly make the Mogg their leader.

    The Mogg has charisma whether you like him or not and appeals to the Tory base in much the same way as Corbyn appealed to the Labour base

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 10,449
    IanB2 said:

    From ZOE:

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re unvaccinated?

    If you’ve not yet been vaccinated, then the symptoms are more recognisable to the traditional original ranking, however we can still observe some changes from when COVID-19 first appeared over a year ago.

    1. Headache
    2. Sore Throat
    3. Runny Nose
    4. Fever
    5. Persistent cough

    Loss of smell comes in at number 9 and shortness of breath comes far down the list at number 30, indicating the symptoms as recorded previously are changing with the evolving variants of the virus.

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’ve had only one vaccine dose?

    The ranking changes again after one dose of the vaccination as observed below:

    1. Headache
    2. Runny nose
    3. Sore throat
    4. Sneezing
    5. Persistent cough

    As we can see, after the protection from only once vaccine, one of the original indicators of a persistent cough has made the top 5 symptoms, but still comes below sneezing and a runny nose in rankings, which were previously thought to be unrelated to infection.

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re fully vaccinated?

    Generally, we saw similar symptoms of COVID-19 being reported overall in the app by people who had and hadn’t been vaccinated. However, fewer symptoms were reported over a shorter period of time by those who had already had a jab, suggesting that they were falling less seriously ill and getting better more quickly.

    Here is the current ranking of COVID symptoms after 2 vaccinations:

    1. Headache
    2. Runny nose
    3. Sneezing
    4. Sore throat
    5. Loss of smell

    The previous ‘traditional’ symptoms as still outlined on the government website, such as anosmia (loss of smell), shortness of breath and fever rank way down the list, at 5, 29 and 12 respectively. A persistent cough now ranks at number 8 if you’ve had two vaccine doses, so is no longer the top indicator of having COVID.

    Curiously, we noticed that people who had been vaccinated and then tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to report sneezing as a symptom compared with those without a jab.

    If you’ve been vaccinated and start sneezing a lot without an explanation, you should get a COVID test, especially if you are living or working around people who are at greater risk from the disease.

    I wonder if hayfever is impacting that? If they are not controlling for date periods, then they will find more vaccinated people reporting in the period where hayfever is high, and therefore promoting symptoms like sneezing in the ranking.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    Dear @dgurdasani1,

    We blocked each other a while ago, which is for the better. There's no potential for any constructive discussion between us at this stage. Thus, I'd be grateful if you could stop screenshooting my tweets and pretending you're talking to me.

    Thanks,

    Francois


    https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1413689849123639304?s=20
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 10
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    Yet further confirmation her background is liberal not Tory
    I wonder if you've actually got any idea what 'tory' even means? You've been bandying it around on this thread as synonymous with 'conservative' which you also use loosely with a small 'c'. Do you even comprehend the history of your party? The different strands? The old liberal One Nation wing which has been associated with 'tory'? The idea that 'conservative' and 'Conservative' are not the same thing? That some of your greatest leaders haven't been conservative at all? Neither Winston Churchill nor Margaret Thatcher would have fitted your narrow constraints of acceptability.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    Time for Boris to get some balls of steel and ignore the polling and lead the country rather than follow it.

    More respect for him if he does.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
    Isn't that just what the press is calling it, or has Johnson actually called it that?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    Great header.

    I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.

    I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379
    I think there is some bias in covid polling that isn't in say election polling. It is logical that anybody who has a carefree mindset (perhaps a more disordered life and happy with that ) about covid is less likely to be a committed survey filler in . The two rarely go together . On the other hand if you are very ordered and have a home based life to the extent surveys either catch you at home on the computer or you make time to fill them in you are more likely to be fine with following other rules like covid ones.

    Personally I think seeing how many people have worn masks outside is a good indicator of how people will really behave when covid restrictions go. This is barely 5% , never more than 10% even pre vaccination . Most people dont liek to seem callous when asked about lifting covid restrictions but often find themselves in real life situations where they dont follow the rules themselves - hancock ,cummings etc
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366

    Great header.

    I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.

    I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?

    That would be an absolute dream ticket.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502

    Stereodog said:

    Liz Truss might be popular with the membership but do they see her as Prime Minister material? My impression is that she is a competent minister and something of a happy warrior which party members tend to like. However she does seem to fundamentally lack gravitas and she's a bit too keen to wander into a soundbite. The disgraceful cheese speech is very hard to forget. I think if she did run for the leadership she'd be a bit like Andrea Leadsom. Respected as a minister and well liked because she's happy to do battle in the media but just not quite imaginable in the top job.

    To declare a bias I'm a big fan of Truss. While for obvious personal financial reasons my book hopes it's Sunak, she would be my preferred other choice.

    But it's worth noting that any criticism of her comes back to that speech to Conference. While the speech was amusing, it was her first speech as Cabinet Secretary. Since then she's been in Cabinet for seven more years and nobody has anything new to criticise her with. That's rather remarkable!

    By the time of the next election, which Boris will almost certainly be PM until, she will be one of the countries longest standing Cabinet Secretaries and have been in Cabinet for a decade.

    So yes she has the necessary gravitas. She learns too, which is important.
    That is a thought actually.

    Who has the longest consecutive spell in cabinet at the moment? Gove had a year out from 2014-15. Shapps had six months as Minister of State. Hancock has quit. May, Hammond and Hunt were I think the only ones there from the start by 2019.

    Is it Truss? I think she might be the only one continuously in Cabinet since the Coalition days.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
    That's quite concentrated bullshit you are generathing there @RochdalePioneers .

    "He may not be scrapping ..." .. "So yes, they are scrapping".

    The Govt is not responsible for drivel written in media, nor for commentators misrepresenting data to attack the Govt or scare vulnerable people.

    That's it, really.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 4,012
    FUDHY for JRM

    Priceless.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865

    IanB2 said:

    From ZOE:

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re unvaccinated?

    If you’ve not yet been vaccinated, then the symptoms are more recognisable to the traditional original ranking, however we can still observe some changes from when COVID-19 first appeared over a year ago.

    1. Headache
    2. Sore Throat
    3. Runny Nose
    4. Fever
    5. Persistent cough

    Loss of smell comes in at number 9 and shortness of breath comes far down the list at number 30, indicating the symptoms as recorded previously are changing with the evolving variants of the virus.

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’ve had only one vaccine dose?

    The ranking changes again after one dose of the vaccination as observed below:

    1. Headache
    2. Runny nose
    3. Sore throat
    4. Sneezing
    5. Persistent cough

    As we can see, after the protection from only once vaccine, one of the original indicators of a persistent cough has made the top 5 symptoms, but still comes below sneezing and a runny nose in rankings, which were previously thought to be unrelated to infection.

    What are the symptoms of COVID-19 if you’re fully vaccinated?

    Generally, we saw similar symptoms of COVID-19 being reported overall in the app by people who had and hadn’t been vaccinated. However, fewer symptoms were reported over a shorter period of time by those who had already had a jab, suggesting that they were falling less seriously ill and getting better more quickly.

    Here is the current ranking of COVID symptoms after 2 vaccinations:

    1. Headache
    2. Runny nose
    3. Sneezing
    4. Sore throat
    5. Loss of smell

    The previous ‘traditional’ symptoms as still outlined on the government website, such as anosmia (loss of smell), shortness of breath and fever rank way down the list, at 5, 29 and 12 respectively. A persistent cough now ranks at number 8 if you’ve had two vaccine doses, so is no longer the top indicator of having COVID.

    Curiously, we noticed that people who had been vaccinated and then tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to report sneezing as a symptom compared with those without a jab.

    If you’ve been vaccinated and start sneezing a lot without an explanation, you should get a COVID test, especially if you are living or working around people who are at greater risk from the disease.

    I wonder if hayfever is impacting that? If they are not controlling for date periods, then they will find more vaccinated people reporting in the period where hayfever is high, and therefore promoting symptoms like sneezing in the ranking.
    Just what I was thinking. Telling people that sneezing is No.3 symptom of Covid in the middle of summer is an interesting piece of analysis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502
    edited July 10

    Great header.

    I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.

    I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?

    She would be, yes. It’s the only remaining great office never to have been held by a woman. In fact, off hand I can’t think of any other cabinet role that hasn’t been held by a woman at some point, however briefly.

    Edit - but I would you to choose your words more carefully, especially the ones in bold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    Yet further confirmation her background is liberal not Tory
    I wonder if you've actually got any idea what 'tory' even means? You've been bandying it around on this thread as synonymous with 'conservative' which you also use loosely with a small 'c'. Do you even comprehend the history of your party? The different strands? The old liberal One Nation wing which has been associated with 'tory'? The idea that 'conservative' and 'Conservative' are not the same thing? That some of your greatest leaders haven't been conservative at all? Neither Winston Churchill nor Margaret Thatcher would have fitted your narrow constraints of acceptability.
    Thatcher was arguably more a Gladstonian Liberal than a traditional Tory certainly though her reforms were needed, she however always supported the monarchy unlike Truss.

    Churchill was indeed a liberal for a time but was also a great patriot and war leader and by 1950 pretty much in line with the post war Tory consensus
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    Great header.

    I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.

    I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?

    She would be, yes. It’s the only remaining great office never to have been held by a woman. In fact, off hand I can’t think of any other cabinet role that hasn’t been held by a woman at some point, however briefly.

    Edit - but I would you to choose your words more carefully, especially the ones in bold.
    Liz Truss is an accountant by trade as well isn't she? Always helps with being CofE I feel
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 14,593

    Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...

    The Knife?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
    That's quite concentrated bullshit you are generathing there @RochdalePioneers .

    "He may not be scrapping ..." .. "So yes, they are scrapping".

    The Govt is not responsible for drivel written in media, nor for commentators misrepresenting data to attack the Govt or scare vulnerable people.

    That's it, really.
    I will not be in the least surprised if on the 12th, possibly under cover of an England win, Johnson rows back and we get a semi lifting of restrictions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502

    ydoethur said:

    Great header.

    I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.

    I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?

    She would be, yes. It’s the only remaining great office never to have been held by a woman. In fact, off hand I can’t think of any other cabinet role that hasn’t been held by a woman at some point, however briefly.

    Edit - but I would you to choose your words more carefully, especially the ones in bold.
    Liz Truss is an accountant by trade as well isn't she? Always helps with being CofE I feel
    Poacher turned gamekeeper?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
    That's quite concentrated bullshit you are generathing there @RochdalePioneers .

    "He may not be scrapping ..." .. "So yes, they are scrapping".

    The Govt is not responsible for drivel written in media, nor for commentators misrepresenting data to attack the Govt or scare vulnerable people.

    That's it, really.
    If you say so. Shit for brains doesn't seem to know what he is saying one day to the next. Scrapping all. Not scrapping all. Depends which minister you ask. Or how drunk he gets at the football.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
    That's quite concentrated bullshit you are generathing there @RochdalePioneers .

    "He may not be scrapping ..." .. "So yes, they are scrapping".

    The Govt is not responsible for drivel written in media, nor for commentators misrepresenting data to attack the Govt or scare vulnerable people.

    That's it, really.
    I will not be in the least surprised if on the 12th, possibly under cover of an England win, Johnson rows back and we get a semi lifting of restrictions.
    yes and that will be a great pity and very depressing. Really would show the country is a insular selfish scared place that is happy to be depressing miserable and non social. Quite the opposite of what I believed the UK to be since the 1990s
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    They aren't scrapping all restrictions at once.

    That if anything shows that wall to wall media wibble has some effect on short term opinion polls.
    As usual the shit for brains PM is digging a pit when he speaks without thinking. He may not be scrapping all restrictions at once. But he is *saying* that he is. FREEDOM DAY. Two preannouncements so far, ministers saying ditch the mask, Johnson photographed having already ditched the mask.

    So yes they are scrapping them all. It doesn't matter that the WHO have described the plan as demonstrably stupid. It has to happen. The Boris has to have his moment of adoration. Some of you are going to die, martyrs of course to the freedom I shall provide...
    That's quite concentrated bullshit you are generathing there @RochdalePioneers .

    "He may not be scrapping ..." .. "So yes, they are scrapping".

    The Govt is not responsible for drivel written in media, nor for commentators misrepresenting data to attack the Govt or scare vulnerable people.

    That's it, really.
    I will not be in the least surprised if on the 12th, possibly under cover of an England win, Johnson rows back and we get a semi lifting of restrictions.
    Nonsense. Apparently the Number 10 briefing room is not responsible for the supportive media taking the line it tells them to take and printing the stories it gives them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    Yet further confirmation her background is liberal not Tory
    I wonder if you've actually got any idea what 'tory' even means? You've been bandying it around on this thread as synonymous with 'conservative' which you also use loosely with a small 'c'. Do you even comprehend the history of your party? The different strands? The old liberal One Nation wing which has been associated with 'tory'? The idea that 'conservative' and 'Conservative' are not the same thing? That some of your greatest leaders haven't been conservative at all? Neither Winston Churchill nor Margaret Thatcher would have fitted your narrow constraints of acceptability.
    Thatcher was arguably more a Gladstonian Liberal than a traditional Tory certainly though her reforms were needed, she however always supported the monarchy unlike Truss.

    Churchill was indeed a liberal for a time but was also a great patriot and war leader and by 1950 pretty much in line with the post war Tory consensus
    Her biographers would not have agreed with you. Blake, for instance, wrote this: ‘She was a Conservative by conviction. The image of her as a neo-Gladstonian is a caricature.’

    In fact, the closer parallel is to Hugh Cecil and Arthur Balfour, rather than to Gladstone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    Time for Boris to get some balls of steel and ignore the polling and lead the country rather than follow it.

    More respect for him if he does.
    Do you think they are surprised at No.10 with this polling? The entire government machine has been focused on scaring people into obeying the never ending list of regulations and rules for 18 months and now they expect everyone to just bounce back?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    Yet further confirmation her background is liberal not Tory
    I wonder if you've actually got any idea what 'tory' even means? You've been bandying it around on this thread as synonymous with 'conservative' which you also use loosely with a small 'c'. Do you even comprehend the history of your party? The different strands? The old liberal One Nation wing which has been associated with 'tory'? The idea that 'conservative' and 'Conservative' are not the same thing? That some of your greatest leaders haven't been conservative at all? Neither Winston Churchill nor Margaret Thatcher would have fitted your narrow constraints of acceptability.
    Thatcher was arguably more a Gladstonian Liberal than a traditional Tory certainly though her reforms were needed, she however always supported the monarchy unlike Truss.

    Churchill was indeed a liberal for a time but was also a great patriot and war leader and by 1950 pretty much in line with the post war Tory consensus
    Her biographers would not have agreed with you. Blake, for instance, wrote this: ‘She was a Conservative by conviction. The image of her as a neo-Gladstonian is a caricature.’

    In fact, the closer parallel is to Hugh Cecil and Arthur Balfour, rather than to Gladstone.
    I dont think Thatcher was either a true classical liberal or a true tory. Its probably why she got her own political philosophy - Thatcherism . Which if as PM you can get this is a credit to innovative thinking ! Same with Blair
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10

    FUDHY for JRM

    Priceless.

    JRM is a Tory, if Truss ever became leader we would effectively cease to be the Tory Party and become an Orange Book LD Party in tune with her background on the economic right of the Liberals (albeit even most LDs did not go as far as her and back abolishing the monarchy as she once did, even though she now sensibly seems to have gone quiet on this).

    I also fail to see how she would have much appeal in the Red Wall as a libertarian small state ex Remainer, indeed Mogg would probably have more appeal to the white working class Red Wall than Truss.

    Having now embraced Brexit I also doubt she would win back many of the Home Counties and SW London Remainers now backing Starmer Labour or the LDs and she does not seem a great champion of the green belt but a pure free marketeer so she is not going to win back the likes of Chesham and Amersham either
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744
    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502
    edited July 10

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    Time for Boris to get some balls of steel and ignore the polling and lead the country rather than follow it.

    More respect for him if he does.
    Do you think they are surprised at No.10 with this polling? The entire government machine has been focused on scaring people into obeying the never ending list of regulations and rules for 18 months and now they expect everyone to just bounce back?
    I can’t help but wonder in light of this if they’re getting it the wrong way round - that it would have been better to end the isolation process loosely enforced by Dido Harding’s retirement plan Track and Trace and then when people had seen it didn’t cause ‘bodies to pile up in the streets’ lift the rest a bit later.

    Apart from anything else, isolation must be the most ignored of all rules. Much harder to enforce than not wearing masks.

    But equally, I would probably have followed the same process they are if I’d been in the same situation, so I’m not going to criticise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    edited July 10

    ydoethur said:

    Great header.

    I've been on Truss for sometime at 32/1.

    I do wonder though whether we might see a Sunak-Truss dream ticket and a coronation with no membership involvement? Truss would be his CoE. The first woman in the role iirc?

    She would be, yes. It’s the only remaining great office never to have been held by a woman. In fact, off hand I can’t think of any other cabinet role that hasn’t been held by a woman at some point, however briefly.

    Edit - but I would you to choose your words more carefully, especially the ones in bold.
    Liz Truss is an accountant by trade as well isn't she? Always helps with being CofE I feel
    Former Chief Secretary to the Treasury too, so eminently qualified.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,436

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    If you were here yesterday you will have seen I asked the same question about a dozen times. I'm sure HYUFD does read the posts but is incapable of taking in contradictory data to his view or the application of logic. All responses will just be to repeat the same words over and over again. The fact that the article contains data that contradicts his view won't be addressed. It will be ignored and his previous posts ignoring it will be repeated.

    It is a shame as there is no reason why he couldn't put a counter argument. See yesterday; there were plenty of rational arguments against my position that could have been argued. I even tried putting a few up for him.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379
    edited July 10

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    If you were here yesterday you will have seen I asked the same question about a dozen times. I'm sure HYUFD does read the posts but is incapable of taking in contradictory data to his view or the application of logic. All responses will just be to repeat the same words over and over again. The fact that the article contains data that contradicts his view won't be addressed. It will be ignored and his previous posts ignoring it will be repeated.

    It is a shame as there is no reason why he couldn't put a counter argument. See yesterday; there were plenty of rational arguments against my position that could have been argued. I even tried putting a few up for him.
    No, I just have my own views and refuse to change them to suit you.

    Your argument yesterday was essentially that mortgage and rent paying taxpayers should continue to subsidise an earnings related increase in state pensions rather than an inflation related one.

    There is no logic which automatically means that your view is always right as you always assume in your sometimes rather patronising way and certainly no logic that the average taxpayer must accept funding earnings related rises in the state pension for pensioners who own their own property and have substantial private pensions too. As I stated poorer pensioners who still rent could be helped with higher pension credit or higher housing benefit rather than across the board earnings related increases in the state pension as you advocated
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    Not sure about this. We've had a poll from @RedfieldWilton:

    To what extent do you support or oppose the lifting of all domestic coronavirus restrictions on 19 July?
    Strongly support 17%
    Support 24%
    Neither support nor oppose 19%
    Oppose 21%
    Strongly oppose 16%
    Don’t know 2%


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1413762266877644801?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,138
    edited July 10

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
    It actually comes from from the Brexity right as it’s seen as a decadent prop for the metropolitan elite.

    Ironically, it is decadent - to drink something so milky after 1100.

    It always depresses me that good food (or drink) is sneered at in this country.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,918
    Very good, Pip. I am also on Truss.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I value your views and think they are as important to be heard as @contrarian's.

    As for polling I get that it is cautious. And that many on PB are not. But stepping outside it seems that "the country" is pretty incautious.

    Politically for BoJo this means he can continue with July 19th to much if not all acclaim.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,071
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366

    Very good, Pip. I am also on Truss.

    Does your wife know? 😲
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    @HYUFD's "Tory Party" is like that AI thought experiment. If you take one brain synapse and replace it with a computer you are still you. At what point, one synapse at a time, do you stop becoming you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    Gauke and Grieve were not only Tory MPs but Tory Cabinet Ministers, both stood against the official Conservative candidate at the last general election.

    Bercow was a Tory MP and has now declared himself a leftwinger and supporter of the Labour Party.

    Shaun Woodward was a Tory MP and Shadow Cabinet spokesman for London, defected to Labour and became a Minister under Blair and Brown and ended up Ed Miliband's Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary.

    So not always and of course Truss used to be a member and activist in the LDs
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,122

    Scott_xP said:

    Two Whitehall sources told the Guardian that ministers had been spooked by internal polling. One said the data showed just 10% of the public support the policy of scrapping all restrictions at once, while another said substantially more people believed the government was moving too quickly than at the last reopening step on 17 May. These accounts were denied by No 10.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1413725938504769536

    Time for Boris to get some balls of steel and ignore the polling and lead the country rather than follow it.

    More respect for him if he does.
    One doesn't father that many children without "balls of steel".

    Away with your "unlock, unlock" rhetoric.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,071

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    She has gone up in my estimation!

    If we're going to keep it then I'd certainly like the monarchy trimmed down to bare essentials. No more than half a dozen royals on the payroll (currently HMQ, Charles & Camilla and the Cambridges) and one town house, one country house.
    I don’t think anyone else is on the state payroll now that the Sussexes have retired from public service. The state provides them with accommodation in London (Buck House, Clarence House and KP) but only Windsor is state provided accommodation outside of London.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    If we are going to start on about whether leading tories are actually conservatives may I present one Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    Totally agree and he never bull shits
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    No one should ridicule him but he is not the only Tory around here. Strictly speaking by his own criteria he is not a Tory as he voted remain. Leave is, today, a sine qua non of being a Tory.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    Paul Mariner has passed.

    Just a day before the big final. That's harsh, death.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10
    TOPPING said:

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    No one should ridicule him but he is not the only Tory around here. Strictly speaking by his own criteria he is not a Tory as he voted remain. Leave is, today, a sine qua non of being a Tory.
    As long as you accepted the Brexit result I don't think that is necessarily so. After all some Leavers still vote Labour as Batley and Spen showed and some former Remainers like Javid, Coffey, Buckland and Williamson and indeed Truss are in the Cabinet
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
    I don't think I qualify as "the left". My issue with the likes of Starbucks is the stupid amount they charge for ok coffee combined with their mysterious lack of profit from selling said coffee meaning no tax paid.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    No one should ridicule him but he is not the only Tory around here. Strictly speaking by his own criteria he is not a Tory as he voted remain. Leave is, today, a sine qua non of being a Tory.
    As long as you accepted the Brexit result I don't think that is necessarily so. After all some Leavers still vote Labour as Batley and Spen showed and some former Remainers like Javid, Coffey and Williamson and indeed Truss are in the Cabinet
    Do you think Truss accepts that the monarchy will not be abolished?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,071
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    Gauke and Grieve were not only Tory MPs but Tory Cabinet Ministers, both stood against the official Conservative candidate at the last general election.

    Bercow was a Tory MP and has now declared himself a leftwinger and supporter of the Labour Party.

    Shaun Woodward was a Tory MP and Shadow Cabinet spokesman for London, defected to Labour and became a Minister under Blair and Brown and ended up Ed Miliband's Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary.

    So not always and of course Truss used to be a member and activist in the LDs
    Bercow and Woodward left the party. It happens. Gauke and Grieve fell out with the leadership but are still conservatives.

    I wrote a whole damn thread on the traditional threads in the Conservative party. That thread was really aimed at you personally! There are many streams of thought. The party’s success is because it can balance between these rather than become ossified into a narrow and exclusive mindset like you advocate
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    Gauke and Grieve were not only Tory MPs but Tory Cabinet Ministers, both stood against the official Conservative candidate at the last general election.

    Bercow was a Tory MP and has now declared himself a leftwinger and supporter of the Labour Party.

    Shaun Woodward was a Tory MP and Shadow Cabinet spokesman for London, defected to Labour and became a Minister under Blair and Brown and ended up Ed Miliband's Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary.

    So not always and of course Truss used to be a member and activist in the LDs
    Bercow and Woodward left the party. It happens. Gauke and Grieve fell out with the leadership but are still conservatives.

    I wrote a whole damn thread on the traditional threads in the Conservative party. That thread was really aimed at you personally! There are many streams of thought. The party’s success is because it can balance between these rather than become ossified into a narrow and exclusive mindset like you advocate
    Spot on
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
    I don't think I qualify as "the left". My issue with the likes of Starbucks is the stupid amount they charge for ok coffee combined with their mysterious lack of profit from selling said coffee meaning no tax paid.
    Morning all≥

    Agree, not for the first time, with Mr RP. I'm happy to identify as 'on the left' but don't like Starbucks for the same reason as him, and for the fact that their coffee comes at a temperature similar to that of molten lava. On the rare effusions I go into a Starbucks I have to ask them to drop a couple of lumps of ice into my Americano.
    And I like drinking beer. Not at home though. I take the same view as Mr (I assume) "state_go_away" does about gambling; I like to drink it in pubs where I can chat to 'all sorts and conditions of men'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    No one should ridicule him but he is not the only Tory around here. Strictly speaking by his own criteria he is not a Tory as he voted remain. Leave is, today, a sine qua non of being a Tory.
    As long as you accepted the Brexit result I don't think that is necessarily so. After all some Leavers still vote Labour as Batley and Spen showed and some former Remainers like Javid, Coffey and Williamson and indeed Truss are in the Cabinet
    Do you think Truss accepts that the monarchy will not be abolished?
    She would certainly have to now if she wants to be Tory leader, the Tory Party will not elect an ex Remainer, who is also an ex LD and republican as its leader
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,764
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    An outrageous slur from yourself on @HYUFD. We all know that the essicks massiv is the only gay in the village true Tory.
    He’s off on one again if he’s back touting that twat Mogg. That was a great betting lay that largely offset my failure to believe that Tory MPs would ever put a clown into Downing Street.

    Tories have enough awareness to tell JRM to take a long foreign holiday whenever there is an election on. They aren’t going to make him leader.
    Not in government no, Sunak remains the likely successor if Boris wins the next general election and departs still as PM.

    If the Tories lose a general election or 2 I would certainly not rule the Mogg out, if they could make IDS their leader they could certainly make the Mogg their leader.

    The Mogg has charisma whether you like him or not and appeals to the Tory base in much the same way as Corbyn appealed to the Labour base

    That went well.

    Choosing someone in opposition like IDS or Corbyn is a mistake; it isn't a compulsory step oppositions must go through.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,138
    Starbucks is to coffee what McDonald’s is to the burger.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,079
    edited July 10
    They gush over Truss sound like a crossword clue.
    Or a very niche, surgical appliance centred kink.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    No one should ridicule him but he is not the only Tory around here. Strictly speaking by his own criteria he is not a Tory as he voted remain. Leave is, today, a sine qua non of being a Tory.
    As long as you accepted the Brexit result I don't think that is necessarily so. After all some Leavers still vote Labour as Batley and Spen showed and some former Remainers like Javid, Coffey and Williamson and indeed Truss are in the Cabinet
    Do you think Truss accepts that the monarchy will not be abolished?
    She would certainly have to now if she wants to be Tory leader, the Tory Party will not elect an ex Remainer, who is also an ex LD and republican as its leader
    So either she accepting the monarchy and you accepting Brexit means you are both Tories; or the fact that she once advocated abolition of the monarchy and you voted remain means that neither of you are Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Did you actually read the article before rushing to post your thoughts? If you had done so you would have learned that Liz Truss is enormously popular with the membership. Had you have clicked the link you would have seen that she's out in front, beating even Rishi Sunak. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/two-by-elections-and-one-health-secretary-losses-see-johnson-fall-by-16-points-in-our-cabinet-league-table

    The rest of your post says rather more about you, which I'm not really interested in, especially from a betting perspective.

    Johnson could yet again prove a lucky general (England tomorrow) but no one could describe the pandemic as good fortune. The whole situation remains precarious for all sorts of reasons and not just for health but public finance. Money is clearly a problem which besets Boris wherever he goes. That may be a factor for him in stepping down sooner rather than later. It can't be much fun being PM on the verge of bankruptcy.

    The really interesting question will be the direction the Conservatives next take. If as I suspect they are losing their heartland down south and if the appeal to the north eventually turns sour then their support will continue to slide away. They might under such circumstances retreat to the Far Right with the likes of Patel but that will confine them to the wastelands. Power resides in this country in the centre even if, as with Brexit, the definition of that needs recalibrating (Mondeo Man and Brexit Man were not, after all, so very different).

    It's really quite ironic. If you look at the English football team and read their stories you'll find there a cause for patriotism that is out of kilter with the direction some Conservatives currently seem to be headed.

    The Conservatives will have to return to being a One Nation party if they are going to win.
    An outrageous slur from yourself on @HYUFD. We all know that the essicks massiv is the only gay in the village true Tory.
    He’s off on one again if he’s back touting that twat Mogg. That was a great betting lay that largely offset my failure to believe that Tory MPs would ever put a clown into Downing Street.

    Tories have enough awareness to tell JRM to take a long foreign holiday whenever there is an election on. They aren’t going to make him leader.
    Not in government no, Sunak remains the likely successor if Boris wins the next general election and departs still as PM.

    If the Tories lose a general election or 2 I would certainly not rule the Mogg out, if they could make IDS their leader they could certainly make the Mogg their leader.

    The Mogg has charisma whether you like him or not and appeals to the Tory base in much the same way as Corbyn appealed to the Labour base

    That went well.

    Choosing someone in opposition like IDS or Corbyn is a mistake; it isn't a compulsory step oppositions must go through.
    Opposition leaders elected by the 2 main parties since 1979, Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Blair, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, Ed Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer.

    Of those 11 only 2 won a general election to become PM, Blair and Cameron, with Smith possibly prevented from doing so by his early death and the verdict still out on Starmer.

    Even if they do not always go as extreme as electing an IDS or Corbyn or Foot (or indeed on your view a Rees-Mogg) most opposition leaders do not become PM and the party is certainly capable of electing a leader who makes it feel good first rather than one targeted at floating voters.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169
    edited July 10
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    I would say that "conservative" needs a capital C.

    There is not much that is conservative about the current Conservative Party. Too much trashing of British values such as the rule of Law, integrity in office, or even protecting of the physical character of the country.

    I have been Green on Truss for some time. She has the same shameless ideology free opportunism and ambition as the current PM. That might count against her though, as leaders tend to be replaced by someone with plenty of the attributes seen lacking in the last one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 66,703
    edited July 10

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    When Truss was Lib Dem she proposed a motion at the party conference calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
    Yet further confirmation her background is liberal not Tory
    I wonder if you've actually got any idea what 'tory' even means? You've been bandying it around on this thread as synonymous with 'conservative' which you also use loosely with a small 'c'. Do you even comprehend the history of your party? The different strands? The old liberal One Nation wing which has been associated with 'tory'? The idea that 'conservative' and 'Conservative' are not the same thing? That some of your greatest leaders haven't been conservative at all? Neither Winston Churchill nor Margaret Thatcher would have fitted your narrow constraints of acceptability.
    If being a Cabinet Minister in a Tory government isnt enough to prove oneself a Tory I'm not sure what would qualify.

    Is there no action that would allow redemption for those who dared to have been on a political journey and didn't emerge from the womb as a fully formed Tory patriot?

    It just seems odd when the adaptability of the Tories is praised as one of its key strengths in retaining power.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    The day Mogg becomes PM I will resign and PB posters can hold me to that
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    Starbucks is to coffee what McDonald’s is to the burger.

    A Big Mac is amazing when drunk. Starbucks coffe is terrible, always. They aren't comparable as McDonald's still fulfills the brief. Starbucks could be selling burnt brown water for all we know.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 4,012
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    @HYUFD's "Tory Party" is like that AI thought experiment. If you take one brain synapse and replace it with a computer you are still you. At what point, one synapse at a time, do you stop becoming you.
    Whoooah boy! Too early. My brain needs three decent coffees before trying to cope with Zeno’s paradox.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276
    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    Just occasionally there are few, or even no, other options. I recall a small airport somewhere in SE Asia for example.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    No one should ridicule him but he is not the only Tory around here. Strictly speaking by his own criteria he is not a Tory as he voted remain. Leave is, today, a sine qua non of being a Tory.
    As long as you accepted the Brexit result I don't think that is necessarily so. After all some Leavers still vote Labour as Batley and Spen showed and some former Remainers like Javid, Coffey and Williamson and indeed Truss are in the Cabinet
    Do you think Truss accepts that the monarchy will not be abolished?
    She would certainly have to now if she wants to be Tory leader, the Tory Party will not elect an ex Remainer, who is also an ex LD and republican as its leader
    So either she accepting the monarchy and you accepting Brexit means you are both Tories; or the fact that she once advocated abolition of the monarchy and you voted remain means that neither of you are Tories.
    Except Truss also advocated Remain too but now accepts Brexit like me, I have always been a monarchist though unlike her.

    I also expect Leavers to win the Tory leadership for at least the next decade or two, that would rule both of us out, though obviously I am not in contention as she might be
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    @HYUFD's "Tory Party" is like that AI thought experiment. If you take one brain synapse and replace it with a computer you are still you. At what point, one synapse at a time, do you stop becoming you.
    Whoooah boy! Too early. My brain needs three decent coffees before trying to cope with Zeno’s paradox.
    Soy latte frappucino?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 10

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    The day Mogg becomes PM I will resign and PB posters can hold me to that
    I think you said the same about Boris multiple times BigG but you are still blue.

    Though I doubt Mogg would become PM and certainly not in power, opposition leader maybe
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    When you need s Big Mac you need a Big Mac.

    Starbucks I don't mind that slightly acidic taste. Once a year. It is ruinously expensive.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
    I don't think I qualify as "the left". My issue with the likes of Starbucks is the stupid amount they charge for ok coffee combined with their mysterious lack of profit from selling said coffee meaning no tax paid.
    Morning all≥

    Agree, not for the first time, with Mr RP. I'm happy to identify as 'on the left' but don't like Starbucks for the same reason as him, and for the fact that their coffee comes at a temperature similar to that of molten lava. On the rare effusions I go into a Starbucks I have to ask them to drop a couple of lumps of ice into my Americano.
    And I like drinking beer. Not at home though. I take the same view as Mr (I assume) "state_go_away" does about gambling; I like to drink it in pubs where I can chat to 'all sorts and conditions of men'.
    Starbucks is the only chain that seems to do filter coffee, which I prefer to americano, though more often than not they haven’t got any on when I ask.

    Generally I find Café Nero does much better coffee, but chacun à son goût .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169

    Its hardly a surprise that normal people aren't as gung-ho as some on here and their government. It is their lives the government are risking. "Covid doesn't pose them a risk anymore" I keep hearing. And yet we have a stack of medics including the CMO saying that it does.

    Perhaps they find it instructive that FREEDOM DAY goes hand in hand with instruction to go back to the office and start spending money on public transport and twatty coffee again and the abrupt ending to furlough. Not that this is a financial decision at all...

    I am always bemused by the bile many on the left have about take away coffee. i mean i am not the most massive coffee drinker myself and certianly ain't fussy about whether it is a lattee, frappe, americano etc . When I do have one though i enjoy it , not because of the actual coffee bu the fact that usually you are out of your house , seeing people, doing stuff, maybe even chatting with the shop assistant making it - you know living a human life.

    Also feel the same when people sneer at high street bookies - Personally love to bet in a betting shop rather than on the internet as most of the fun is the social interaction with a little bit of shiftiness that goes with high street bookies. -
    I don't think I qualify as "the left". My issue with the likes of Starbucks is the stupid amount they charge for ok coffee combined with their mysterious lack of profit from selling said coffee meaning no tax paid.
    I agree, my dislike is the usage of non recycling paper cups too for their overpriced confections.

    I have no problem with enjoying a well made coffee, sitting down out of a proper cup with friends, indeed it is quite the pleasure. Walking round with a takeaway is just naff. As a general rule it is good manners that food and drink should not be taken while moving around.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 66,703
    edited July 10

    If you want to understand Tory grassroots opinion, HYUFD is a must read. He cuts through the spin. And he’s often been proved right, despite the ridicule he’s taken.

    He does understand the grass roots, absolutely, and is very useful as a loyalist insight. He knows the party mind pretty well I'd say.

    That is a rather separate issue to a view that decades of being a Tory doesn't make you a Tory, one area where as pointed out polls (or surveys at least) of party members seem to indicate the grass roots disagree, and dont care about.

    They care about winning and appearing competent, not if someone has been consistent.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,138
    edited July 10
    MaxPB said:

    Starbucks is to coffee what McDonald’s is to the burger.

    A Big Mac is amazing when drunk. Starbucks coffe is terrible, always. They aren't comparable as McDonald's still fulfills the brief. Starbucks could be selling burnt brown water for all we know.
    Starbucks *is* burnt brown water.
    Astonishing that fools pay money for it.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is an Orange Book libertarian LD not a Tory, good on the trade deals but not a real conservative. Indeed in her younger days she was a LD.

    Boris won't be going for a long time but if and when he does Rishi Sunak is clearly the obvious choice to succeed him if the Tories are still in power as the Chancellor.

    If the Tories go into opposition then a populist traditional rightwinger like Patel or even Rees-Mogg is more likely to be the membership's choice of successor as leader than Truss

    Somebody is a member of the Conservative Party. They are an MP who takes the Conservative whip. They are a Cabinet minister in a majority Conservative government.

    I’d say it’s pretty cut and dried they are a conservative.

    Even if they disagree with you
    @HYUFD's "Tory Party" is like that AI thought experiment. If you take one brain synapse and replace it with a computer you are still you. At what point, one synapse at a time, do you stop becoming you.
    Whoooah boy! Too early. My brain needs three decent coffees before trying to cope with Zeno’s paradox.
    Do you mean the ship of Theseus?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169
    TOPPING said:

    Notice to those on the left and all points East.

    Buying coffee from Starbucks, like going to Heaven (the nightclub) on July 20th, is not mandatory.

    I have no problem with people doing those things, I just want a safe environment for essential contacts of those who do not wish to be exposed, such as masks on public transport, and for shops and businesses to decide, rather than customers.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 1,839
    edited July 10
    On behalf of the Labour Party, I strongly recommend Liz Truss as the next Tory leader. We would, however, recommend JRM even more strongly. If neither of these are deemed suitable, perhaps Gavin Williamson has what it takes to lead the post-Johnson Tories?
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