By-election shock results – politicalbetting.com
By-election shock results – politicalbetting.com
Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen?
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By-election shock results – politicalbetting.com
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Everyone says this. And maybe that’s right because it’s what the politicians keep saying.
But what happened to the molecular modelling which predicted that sarscov2 is headed for an evolutionary dead end, where it can’t mutate any further without being unable to latch onto ace2 receptors?
And what of fading immunity to existing strains? Maybe we’ll see a bit of that in antibodies but I don’t think there’s enough to be too pessimistic about that, certainly not to the extent that we require authoritarian restrictions on how life is lived, with or without booster shots.
And that’s without t-cell immunity, which that chimp Valance scoffed at earlier on in the crisis, even as studies in Asia showed strong T cell immunity to SARSCov1 over a decade after the event.
Stop pumping the narrative that winter restrictions are an inevitably. They are not. They are the politically easy fallback if the government fails to ensure we have a sensible vaccination programme and a properly functioning healthcare system.
My employer has just told all staff no one needs to enter one of our offices until that time.
So just wondering what that means realistically
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14389391
Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.
Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.
Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.
I think if you wanted to torture the data further you would want to look at the majority of the winner too. So, for example, the Labour majority was only 323 in Batley & Spen, so the miss wasn't that big in some respects.
Compare, say, to Copeland where the Tory majority was 2,147, and to Stoke at about the same time where the majority was 2,620 and the similar being market percentages for the winner look a bit better.
The Chesham & Amersham result really sticks out in this view, with a massive majority of over 8,000 and the smallest winner on the day percentage.
I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.
I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
After facing pressure over the performance of Test and Protect in the last few weeks as Scotland records record numbers of positive Covid cases, Nicola Sturgeon has consistently pointed to the system being able to process 80% of cases within the 72-hour threshold.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19426549.covid-scotland-test-protect-no-longer-meeting-targets-amid-cases-surge/
Surprised Shadsy has ditched ladbrokes for smarkets. They must have offered him a decent package. Perhaps ladbrokes became unbearable.
Intriguing move, anyway.
Gives smarkets a bit more credibility.
Still not convinced about their business model though. I keep my balances low…
London going to test the theory that its very uncommon to get reinfection even without the added protection of being fully vaccinated.....
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15519943/england-denmark-euro-2020-saka-sancho/
To me, Hartlepool was a shock, particularly the scale of victory. The other two were not. Though I would not have predicted such a large majority in C&A.
Covid will have - literally - nowhere to hide. Kids will have had Delta and won't catch it. Older people will have had the vaccine and/or have caught Delta.
Unless there is a variant with an R of 95, then this will be all over in six to eight weeks. There is not an unlimited source of Brits without antibodies to act as carriers.
Glad I won't be the only person watching.
Can LAFC make it two road wins in a row?
Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-august-covid-virus-fall-exclusive-b944552.html
Worth £100 million and there's absolutely no window to extend it because the IPL resumes a few days after the final test.
Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20
Only people permitted will be IOC VIPs and sponsors (apart from the athletes and officials.)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/games-to-go-behind-closed-doors-after-tokyo-declares-new-state-of-emergency-7xmsd72mg
Brussels withholds approval of Hungary’s recovery plan
https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-turns-down-hungarys-recovery-plan/
Delta is mostly spreading because of schools. Putting all the unvaccinated people in crowded and poorly ventilated places, and adding a fair amount of physical contact, is a recipe for it to spread like wildfire.
But guess what: schools are finishing in a couple of weeks. That means Delta will have far fewer opportunities to infect people. It's perfect timing, really, the beginning of the school holidays and Brits getting their second doses of Pfizer and Moderna.
I actually think cases will peak even earlier, though. I'm going for a week on Monday, and then they will fall relatively quickly, especially as we will lose the school testing regimes than uncover so many asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic cases.
By the end of August, the UK will be back below 2,000 cases a day. And that will be that.
Certainly not true globally.
A triple combo.... Andrew Wakefield will be all over it.
https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1412811940146130947
Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
https://twitter.com/Brent_Council/status/1412769636215627777?s=20
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/225753/10-uk-citizens-willing-donate-their/
What’s that?
You wish there was a ‘psychic tortoise’ in Jersey called Corbie who’d been caught on camera predicting an England win?
You’re welcome.
https://twitter.com/GaryBurgessCI/status/1412813100852690948?s=20
Or proof of full vaccination - both doses received at least 14 days prior to the match. It must be demonstrated either via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App or the English vaccination letter. ❗ Your vaccination card will not be accepted.
Or proof of natural immunity, demonstrated via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App.
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/london/stadium/
Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.
Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.
It's over.
I suppose they could push the timescales back, if they're more confident of being able to get testing and manufacturing completed in a shortened timescale? Or they could wait till after the Southern Hemisphere flu season is underway and then have another go at a vaccine for the Northern?
It does make me think there's going to be a hell of a meltdown over summer with millions of people with colds stuck at home for 10 days unable to work, trying to protect millions of other people from catching a cold
Surely as soon as it becomes clear there isn't going to be massive hospitalisation the government has to end this self isolation madness... I'm not just talking about contacts but actual infected people too
By 55% to 35% Britons think fully vaccinated travellers arriving into Britain from Amber list countries should continue to have to quarantine for up to 10 days
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1412816229052600320?s=20
Before the twin "towers" of football and covid once again take us down paths untrodden, I thought this was an excellent piece on the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57729502
Fascinating to remember Mrs Thatcher was once "green" - the cynic might argue this was her response to the strong performance by the Greens in the 1989 European elections - and it's sad to think such views never held the sway within the Conservative Party she herself did for no long.
The acerbic Nigel Lawson became the champion of the climate change "deniers" - perhaps he chafed at how he had been treated by her in Cabinet.
I'd like to think "New" Labour got it but I don't think they did. We lost two decades which could have been spent preparing the country and the economy for a carbon-neutral future. Even David Cameron was pilloried within his own party for daring to raise environmental issues.
The problem is the kneejerk response - some cry "eco-fascism", others claim we'll be forced to live in caves without cars and washing machines. Both responses are absurd but have been allowed to become almost mainstream by the antics of some in the Green movement.
I'm a huge believer in human ingenuity - we've seen it in the response to coronavirus - and I certainly think climate change and its consequences can be mitigated by human action just as it has been caused and accelerated by human action. We've made huge progress in many areas but so much needs to be done and the heatwaves this year in Canada and last year in Siberia are dire warnings.
Inevitably, there will be a European heatwave and I don't want to think of 10 days of temperatures above 40c in London - I hope we're prepared because it will happen and in the near future I fear.
Nonetheless I'm optimistic - all I would say is there isn't a Conservative approach to environmentalism or a Socialist approach or a Liberal approach - there's simply an approach which will contain elements of all three and others.
One can only hope that all this is designed to make the Govt drop the current policy on isolation, rather than the alternative...
While the Times journalist does their own idiotic analysis (stuck a ruler through the trend line) and come up with 4000 daily admissions incoming...i mean just how many undocumented unvaccinated migrants do they think there are living in sheds in slough that haven't already got covid while working on a building site to enable this to happen?