By-election shock results – politicalbetting.com

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By-election shock results – politicalbetting.com

Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen?

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Top piece and congratulations on the new job.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh was that a first?

Leon

As if global plague and mass die-off isn’t enough, NOW THE TRAM HAS BROKEN DOWN IN PORT DE SOLLER

moonshine

FPT to HYUFD

Everyone says this. And maybe that’s right because it’s what the politicians keep saying.

But what happened to the molecular modelling which predicted that sarscov2 is headed for an evolutionary dead end, where it can’t mutate any further without being unable to latch onto ace2 receptors?

And what of fading immunity to existing strains? Maybe we’ll see a bit of that in antibodies but I don’t think there’s enough to be too pessimistic about that, certainly not to the extent that we require authoritarian restrictions on how life is lived, with or without booster shots.

And that’s without t-cell immunity, which that chimp Valance scoffed at earlier on in the crisis, even as studies in Asia showed strong T cell immunity to SARSCov1 over a decade after the event.

Stop pumping the narrative that winter restrictions are an inevitably. They are not. They are the politically easy fallback if the government fails to ensure we have a sensible vaccination programme and a properly functioning healthcare system.

FrancisUrquhart

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

dixiedean

And, until the opinion poll, Labour were favourite in Hartlepool, too.

Floater

O/t - when do we think all people in UK will have been offered 2nd dose?

My employer has just told all staff no one needs to enter one of our offices until that time.

So just wondering what that means realistically

FrancisUrquhart

Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

Kono: Pfizer vaccine supply to keep shrinking until September
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14389391

FrancisUrquhart

Floater said:

O/t - when do we think all people in UK will have been offered 2nd dose?

My employer has just told all staff no one needs to enter one of our offices until that time.

So just wondering what that means realistically

September.

dixiedean

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

This is going to be a shambles, isn't it?

rcs1000

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

This is going to be a bigger shambles than the Lions tour of South Africa.

Fysics_Teacher

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

HYUFD

moonshine said:

FPT to HYUFD

Everyone says this. And maybe that’s right because it’s what the politicians keep saying.

But what happened to the molecular modelling which predicted that sarscov2 is headed for an evolutionary dead end, where it can’t mutate any further without being unable to latch onto ace2 receptors?

And what of fading immunity to existing strains? Maybe we’ll see a bit of that in antibodies but I don’t think there’s enough to be too pessimistic about that, certainly not to the extent that we require authoritarian restrictions on how life is lived, with or without booster shots.

And that’s without t-cell immunity, which that chimp Valance scoffed at earlier on in the crisis, even as studies in Asia showed strong T cell immunity to SARSCov1 over a decade after the event.

Stop pumping the narrative that winter restrictions are an inevitably. They are not. They are the politically easy fallback if the government fails to ensure we have a sensible vaccination programme and a properly functioning healthcare system.

The government already has achieved a widespread vaccination programme but we know flu peaks in winter each year when hospital flu admissions are their highest and we have to be prepared for Covid to be similar, even for the double vaccinated (especially amongst the elderly)

HYUFD

It really should not have been much of a surprise for a party in government for 11 years to fail to win 2 by elections, especially when one was in a seat they did not already hold and the other was in a seat the by election experts the LDs were targeting hard

TheScreamingEagles

Floater said:

O/t - when do we think all people in UK will have been offered 2nd dose?

My employer has just told all staff no one needs to enter one of our offices until that time.

So just wondering what that means realistically

We've assumed mid September (we've factored in a 3 week period for the second dose to kick in.)

Floater

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

O/t - when do we think all people in UK will have been offered 2nd dose?

My employer has just told all staff no one needs to enter one of our offices until that time.

So just wondering what that means realistically

September.

Cheers - even then it looks like 50% occupancy only

LostPassword

Great article, thanks.

I think if you wanted to torture the data further you would want to look at the majority of the winner too. So, for example, the Labour majority was only 323 in Batley & Spen, so the miss wasn't that big in some respects.

Compare, say, to Copeland where the Tory majority was 2,147, and to Stoke at about the same time where the majority was 2,620 and the similar being market percentages for the winner look a bit better.

The Chesham & Amersham result really sticks out in this view, with a massive majority of over 8,000 and the smallest winner on the day percentage.

Theuniondivvie

Nice try, Leon

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

CarlottaVance

SCOTLAND’S Test and Protect system has been labelled “completely overwhelmed” by a surge in cases after officials failed to hit a World Health Organisation (WHO) target for 80 per cent of cases to be closed within 72 hours.

After facing pressure over the performance of Test and Protect in the last few weeks as Scotland records record numbers of positive Covid cases, Nicola Sturgeon has consistently pointed to the system being able to process 80% of cases within the 72-hour threshold.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19426549.covid-scotland-test-protect-no-longer-meeting-targets-amid-cases-surge/

Alphabet_Soup

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.

I believe the usual solution is to retrain ballerinas.

ping

https://www.sbcnews.co.uk/sportsbook/2021/06/29/smarkets-snaps-up-shaddick-in-bid-to-lead-all-politics-trading/

Surprised Shadsy has ditched ladbrokes for smarkets. They must have offered him a decent package. Perhaps ladbrokes became unbearable.

Intriguing move, anyway.

Gives smarkets a bit more credibility.

Still not convinced about their business model though. I keep my balances low…

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

I think the government will quietly offer all 18+ boosters this year while only advertising it for vulnerable groups because it won't want the international attention of giving boosters to already vaccinated healthy young people while the developing world can't get enough for their vulnerable. It will just make it "optional" as it does with the flu jab and maybe do workplace schemes for under 40s. I also wouldn't be surprised if JCVI group 10 is added to the list of vulnerable categories due to delta having a 40-60% higher hospitalisation rate and groups 4 and 6 are expanded.

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

Bloody hell, I had heard Manchester was rough .......... but wow

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

O/t - when do we think all people in UK will have been offered 2nd dose?

My employer has just told all staff no one needs to enter one of our offices until that time.

So just wondering what that means realistically

We've assumed mid September (we've factored in a 3 week period for the second dose to kick in.)

Cheers

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1412703565982978048?s=19

London going to test the theory that its very uncommon to get reinfection even without the added protection of being fully vaccinated.....

alex_

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

This is going to be a shambles, isn't it?

The plan is to have crowds but they’re banned from cheering!

FrancisUrquhart

Currant Bun confirm only change is Saka for Sancho.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15519943/england-denmark-euro-2020-saka-sancho/

Cookie

HYUFD said:

It really should not have been much of a surprise for a party in government for 11 years to fail to win 2 by elections, especially when one was in a seat they did not already hold and the other was in a seat the by election experts the LDs were targeting hard

Yes, my prediction was for the Conservatives to lose all three. For that is how by-elections tend to go when the Conservatives are in power.
To me, Hartlepool was a shock, particularly the scale of victory. The other two were not. Though I would not have predicted such a large majority in C&A.

Cookie

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

This is going to be a shambles, isn't it?

The plan is to have crowds but they’re banned from cheering!

I think this is tragic. The Japanese are the finest spectators in the world. But they will clap like they've never clapped before.

TheWhiteRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Currant Bun confirm only change is Saka for Sancho.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15519943/england-denmark-euro-2020-saka-sancho/

Not going to make an ambitious attempt to list all the players this time?

FrancisUrquhart

TheWhiteRabbit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Currant Bun confirm only change is Saka for Sancho.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15519943/england-denmark-euro-2020-saka-sancho/

Not going to make an ambitious attempt to list all the players this time?

:-) ....i might end up with 12 if i did.

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Covid will have - literally - nowhere to hide. Kids will have had Delta and won't catch it. Older people will have had the vaccine and/or have caught Delta.

Unless there is a variant with an R of 95, then this will be all over in six to eight weeks. There is not an unlimited source of Brits without antibodies to act as carriers.

TheWhiteRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Currant Bun confirm only change is Saka for Sancho.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15519943/england-denmark-euro-2020-saka-sancho/

Pleased with this approach. Denmark more dangerous down the middle.

rcs1000

Big game tonight.

Glad I won't be the only person watching.

Can LAFC make it two road wins in a row?

LostPassword

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

This is going to be a bigger shambles than the Lions tour of South Africa.

Given what has just happened to the England ODI squad, I expect that the ECB is now very nervous about the Hundred tournament, scheduled 21st July - 21st August.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Covid will have - literally - nowhere to hide. Kids will have had Delta and won't catch it. Older people will have had the vaccine and/or have caught Delta.

Unless there is a variant with an R of 95, then this will be all over in six to eight weeks. There is not an unlimited source of Brits without antibodies to act as carriers.

Hopefully but that does not mean the government does not need to retain the powers if needed in winter if that is not the case

rcs1000

LostPassword said:

Great article, thanks.

I think if you wanted to torture the data further you would want to look at the majority of the winner too. So, for example, the Labour majority was only 323 in Batley & Spen, so the miss wasn't that big in some respects.

Compare, say, to Copeland where the Tory majority was 2,147, and to Stoke at about the same time where the majority was 2,620 and the similar being market percentages for the winner look a bit better.

The Chesham & Amersham result really sticks out in this view, with a massive majority of over 8,000 and the smallest winner on the day percentage.

What's astonishing about C&A is that the Tories were odds on for most of the count - and it has to have been staggeringly obvious from very early on that the LibDems were going to walk it. Yet they only went to 1.1 about 30 minutes before the declaration.

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Covid will have - literally - nowhere to hide. Kids will have had Delta and won't catch it. Older people will have had the vaccine and/or have caught Delta.

Unless there is a variant with an R of 95, then this will be all over in six to eight weeks. There is not an unlimited source of Brits without antibodies to act as carriers.

Hopefully but that does not mean the government does not need to retain the powers if needed in winter if that is not the case

You're right: passing a bill with a majority of 80 and a pliant opposition is incredibly hard.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Covid will have - literally - nowhere to hide. Kids will have had Delta and won't catch it. Older people will have had the vaccine and/or have caught Delta.

Unless there is a variant with an R of 95, then this will be all over in six to eight weeks. There is not an unlimited source of Brits without antibodies to act as carriers.

Hopefully but that does not mean the government does not need to retain the powers if needed in winter if that is not the case

You're right: passing a bill with a majority of 80 and a pliant opposition is incredibly hard.

When a significant proportion of Tory backbenchers want no further restrictions ever regardless of circumstances it may well be

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

The government may have:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-august-covid-virus-fall-exclusive-b944552.html

TheScreamingEagles

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo due to coronavirus, just 2 weeks before the Olympics

This is going to be a bigger shambles than the Lions tour of South Africa.

Given what has just happened to the England ODI squad, I expect that the ECB is now very nervous about the Hundred tournament, scheduled 21st July - 21st August.

According to Mike Atherton the ECB are more worried about the India tour.

Worth £100 million and there's absolutely no window to extend it because the IPL resumes a few days after the final test.

Big_G_NorthWales

Just realised next week's PMQs is the last before 9th September

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

TheScreamingEagles

So it will be confirmed on Friday that the Olympics will be held behind closed doors.

Only people permitted will be IOC VIPs and sponsors (apart from the athletes and officials.)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/games-to-go-behind-closed-doors-after-tokyo-declares-new-state-of-emergency-7xmsd72mg

Nigelb

Is the EU about to get tough with Hungary's autocrat, or is this just posturing ?

Brussels withholds approval of Hungary’s recovery plan
https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-turns-down-hungarys-recovery-plan/

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

So it will be confirmed on Friday that the Olympics will be held behind closed doors.

Only people permitted will be IOC VIPs and sponsors (apart from the athletes and officials.)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/games-to-go-behind-closed-doors-after-tokyo-declares-new-state-of-emergency-7xmsd72mg

So about 50k in the stadium then.....

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

The government may have:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-august-covid-virus-fall-exclusive-b944552.html

Good

Delta is mostly spreading because of schools. Putting all the unvaccinated people in crowded and poorly ventilated places, and adding a fair amount of physical contact, is a recipe for it to spread like wildfire.

But guess what: schools are finishing in a couple of weeks. That means Delta will have far fewer opportunities to infect people. It's perfect timing, really, the beginning of the school holidays and Brits getting their second doses of Pfizer and Moderna.

I actually think cases will peak even earlier, though. I'm going for a week on Monday, and then they will fall relatively quickly, especially as we will lose the school testing regimes than uncover so many asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic cases.

By the end of August, the UK will be back below 2,000 cases a day. And that will be that.

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

*in the UK*
Certainly not true globally.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

Moderna says its vision is to develop a respiratory vaccine combining seasonal flu, a COVID-19 variant booster and RSV, exploring different antigen combinations. https://t.co/B6SI5MihI9

A triple combo.... Andrew Wakefield will be all over it.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

The government may have:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-august-covid-virus-fall-exclusive-b944552.html

Good

Delta is mostly spreading because of schools. Putting all the unvaccinated people in crowded and poorly ventilated places, and adding a fair amount of physical contact, is a recipe for it to spread like wildfire.

But guess what: schools are finishing in a couple of weeks. That means Delta will have far fewer opportunities to infect people. It's perfect timing, really, the beginning of the school holidays and Brits getting their second doses of Pfizer and Moderna.

I actually think cases will peak even earlier, though. I'm going for a week on Monday, and then they will fall relatively quickly, especially as we will lose the school testing regimes than uncover so many asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic cases.

By the end of August, the UK will be back below 2,000 cases a day. And that will be that.

Just as the schools close, the nightclubs will reopen, ensuring a steady supply of large groups of the unvaccinated all gathering together, for a bit longer.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

Moderna says its vision is to develop a respiratory vaccine combining seasonal flu, a COVID-19 variant booster and RSV, exploring different antigen combinations. https://t.co/B6SI5MihI9

A triple combo.... Andrew Wakefield will be all over it.

Isn’t it Moderna who have an mRNA HIV vaccine in early stage testing?

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

The government may have:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-august-covid-virus-fall-exclusive-b944552.html

Good

Delta is mostly spreading because of schools. Putting all the unvaccinated people in crowded and poorly ventilated places, and adding a fair amount of physical contact, is a recipe for it to spread like wildfire.

But guess what: schools are finishing in a couple of weeks. That means Delta will have far fewer opportunities to infect people. It's perfect timing, really, the beginning of the school holidays and Brits getting their second doses of Pfizer and Moderna.

I actually think cases will peak even earlier, though. I'm going for a week on Monday, and then they will fall relatively quickly, especially as we will lose the school testing regimes than uncover so many asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic cases.

By the end of August, the UK will be back below 2,000 cases a day. And that will be that.

Just as the schools close, the nightclubs will reopen, ensuring a steady supply of large groups of the unvaccinated all gathering together, for a bit longer.

You know what... that's OK... because a lot of those young people are going to be vaccinated. And the others aren't (mostly) going to get really sick.

eek

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

The government may have:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-august-covid-virus-fall-exclusive-b944552.html

Good

Delta is mostly spreading because of schools. Putting all the unvaccinated people in crowded and poorly ventilated places, and adding a fair amount of physical contact, is a recipe for it to spread like wildfire.

But guess what: schools are finishing in a couple of weeks. That means Delta will have far fewer opportunities to infect people. It's perfect timing, really, the beginning of the school holidays and Brits getting their second doses of Pfizer and Moderna.

I actually think cases will peak even earlier, though. I'm going for a week on Monday, and then they will fall relatively quickly, especially as we will lose the school testing regimes than uncover so many asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic cases.

By the end of August, the UK will be back below 2,000 cases a day. And that will be that.

Just as the schools close, the nightclubs will reopen, ensuring a steady supply of large groups of the unvaccinated all gathering together, for a bit longer.

Given that nightclubs are (in theory) 18+ its more a steady supply of the partly vaccinated all gathering together.

Floater

Wembley

https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1412811940146130947

rcs1000

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

*in the UK*
Certainly not true globally.

Fair point.

CarlottaVance

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

A triple combo.... Andrew Wakefield will be all over it.

But I bet the barsteward gets it on the quiet.....

rkrkrk

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.

CarlottaVance

If you're attending the #EnglandvDenmark game, you must show proof of a negative Lateral Flow Test taken in the last 48 hours or proof of full vaccination on the NHS app – the second dose received at least 14 days before the game. Find out more here: https://uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/london/stadium/

https://twitter.com/Brent_Council/status/1412769636215627777?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

Floater said:

Wembley

https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1412811940146130947

Covid....covoooid....coooovid......covid coming home....

Nigelb

8 in 10 UK citizens willing to donate their COVID-19 booster dose if not needed
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/225753/10-uk-citizens-willing-donate-their/

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

If you're attending the #EnglandvDenmark game, you must show proof of a negative Lateral Flow Test taken in the last 48 hours or proof of full vaccination on the NHS app – the second dose received at least 14 days before the game. Find out more here: https://uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/london/stadium/

https://twitter.com/Brent_Council/status/1412769636215627777?s=20

What stops you getting somebody else to do the test for you?

CarlottaVance

Jersey's psychic tortoise has spoken chomped:

What’s that?

You wish there was a ‘psychic tortoise’ in Jersey called Corbie who’d been caught on camera predicting an England win?

You’re welcome.

https://twitter.com/GaryBurgessCI/status/1412813100852690948?s=20

Floater

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

Wembley

https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1412811940146130947

Covid....covoooid....coooovid......covid coming home....

I just got goose bumps listening to them roar - great to see life returning

CarlottaVance

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

If you're attending the #EnglandvDenmark game, you must show proof of a negative Lateral Flow Test taken in the last 48 hours or proof of full vaccination on the NHS app – the second dose received at least 14 days before the game. Find out more here: https://uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/london/stadium/

https://twitter.com/Brent_Council/status/1412769636215627777?s=20

What stops you getting somebody else to do the test for you?

Proof of a negative Lateral Flow Test (LFT), reported and demonstrated via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS app, or a text message or email from NHS Test and Trace. This can be on your device or a printout. The test needs to be taken within 48 hours of the time stadium gates open (meaning three hours before match kick-off).

Or proof of full vaccination - both doses received at least 14 days prior to the match. It must be demonstrated either via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App or the English vaccination letter. ❗ Your vaccination card will not be accepted.

Or proof of natural immunity, demonstrated via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App.

https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/london/stadium/

rcs1000

rkrkrk said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.

It's over.

Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

It's over.

Endillion

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

If I've understood correctly, mRNA doesn't help with the basic problem of the flu vaccine, which is that it's hard to predict which the dominant strains will be in advance.

I suppose they could push the timescales back, if they're more confident of being able to get testing and manufacturing completed in a shortened timescale? Or they could wait till after the Southern Hemisphere flu season is underway and then have another go at a vaccine for the Northern?

Big_G_NorthWales

Federer down 2 sets

gealbhan

dixiedean said:

Adverts in the Tour irk me.
Especially when halfway through the second ascent of Mont Ventoux.

One of the adverts has a crouching lady weeing in the woods. Tinkle tinkle goes the sound effect.

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

Moderna says its vision is to develop a respiratory vaccine combining seasonal flu, a COVID-19 variant booster and RSV, exploring different antigen combinations. https://t.co/B6SI5MihI9

A triple combo.... Andrew Wakefield will be all over it.

Well, his girlfriend has been spreading anti-vax shit during the pandemic, so I suspect he'll be opposed on the basis that he's an enormous bell end.

CaptainMatt

I got my "booster jab" last week on a trip to Scotland. A dose of the "delta". Felt like a mild cold and away in a couple of days. Now having tested positive I'm stuck at home for another week. Fortunately I can work from home

It does make me think there's going to be a hell of a meltdown over summer with millions of people with colds stuck at home for 10 days unable to work, trying to protect millions of other people from catching a cold

Surely as soon as it becomes clear there isn't going to be massive hospitalisation the government has to end this self isolation madness... I'm not just talking about contacts but actual infected people too

Northern_Al

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.

It's over.

Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

It's over.

32,548 people reported as testing positive for Covid today may disagree, as may the 386 admitted to hospital. But I hope you're right.

gealbhan

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

If you're attending the #EnglandvDenmark game, you must show proof of a negative Lateral Flow Test taken in the last 48 hours or proof of full vaccination on the NHS app – the second dose received at least 14 days before the game. Find out more here: https://uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/london/stadium/

https://twitter.com/Brent_Council/status/1412769636215627777?s=20

What stops you getting somebody else to do the test for you?

This sites Contrarian has a VIP pass from the Danes.

CarlottaVance

Interesting, although "fully vaxed vs unvaxed" would be an interesting breakdown the proxy - age - suggests very little difference in opinion:

By 55% to 35% Britons think fully vaccinated travellers arriving into Britain from Amber list countries should continue to have to quarantine for up to 10 days

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1412816229052600320?s=20

gealbhan

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.

No.

Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.

We need to be Covid woke?

gealbhan

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just realised next week's PMQs is the last before 9th September

Bad news for?

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

We do know however that flu peaks each winter when flu related hospital admissions are their highest, so unless Covid completely peters out we should expect the same, especially amongst the elderly even if they are double vaccinated

Covid will completely peter out because, unlike the flu, vaccines are 90+% effective. The annual influenza vaccine is typically only 50-60% effective.

Maybe not....

Moderna's trial for an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine is underway, with the blockbuster success of its COVID vaccine bringing new excitement to the promise of mRNA technology.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1412803343093682178?s=20

Moderna says its vision is to develop a respiratory vaccine combining seasonal flu, a COVID-19 variant booster and RSV, exploring different antigen combinations. https://t.co/B6SI5MihI9

A triple combo.... Andrew Wakefield will be all over it.

Well, his girlfriend has been spreading anti-vax shit during the pandemic, so I suspect he'll be opposed on the basis that he's an enormous bell end.

Was she a massive anti-vaxxer before they got together? Because given she still would have the pick of most rooms, he can't have exactly wowed her with his looks, wealth or success....

stodge

Late afternoon all

Before the twin "towers" of football and covid once again take us down paths untrodden, I thought this was an excellent piece on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57729502

Fascinating to remember Mrs Thatcher was once "green" - the cynic might argue this was her response to the strong performance by the Greens in the 1989 European elections - and it's sad to think such views never held the sway within the Conservative Party she herself did for no long.

The acerbic Nigel Lawson became the champion of the climate change "deniers" - perhaps he chafed at how he had been treated by her in Cabinet.

I'd like to think "New" Labour got it but I don't think they did. We lost two decades which could have been spent preparing the country and the economy for a carbon-neutral future. Even David Cameron was pilloried within his own party for daring to raise environmental issues.

The problem is the kneejerk response - some cry "eco-fascism", others claim we'll be forced to live in caves without cars and washing machines. Both responses are absurd but have been allowed to become almost mainstream by the antics of some in the Green movement.

I'm a huge believer in human ingenuity - we've seen it in the response to coronavirus - and I certainly think climate change and its consequences can be mitigated by human action just as it has been caused and accelerated by human action. We've made huge progress in many areas but so much needs to be done and the heatwaves this year in Canada and last year in Siberia are dire warnings.

Inevitably, there will be a European heatwave and I don't want to think of 10 days of temperatures above 40c in London - I hope we're prepared because it will happen and in the near future I fear.

Nonetheless I'm optimistic - all I would say is there isn't a Conservative approach to environmentalism or a Socialist approach or a Liberal approach - there's simply an approach which will contain elements of all three and others.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting, although "fully vaxed vs unvaxed" would be an interesting breakdown the proxy - age - suggests very little difference in opinion:

By 55% to 35% Britons think fully vaccinated travellers arriving into Britain from Amber list countries should continue to have to quarantine for up to 10 days

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1412816229052600320?s=20

I just don't believe this if you framed it as do you want yo go on a foreign holiday this year, what would you think if it suddenly got put on the amber list while you were there and you have to quarantine for 10 days...scream blue murder is what they would do.

Malmesbury

UK cases by specimen date

Malmesbury

UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population

FrancisUrquhart

Old father time is finally catching up with Roger Federer.

Malmesbury

England PCR positivity

Malmesbury

UK hospitals

Big_G_NorthWales

Federer 2 sets down and 5 love down in 3rd set

Malmesbury

UK deaths

alex_

Oh look. The BBC have done the same back of a fag packet calculation as the Guardian, rebadged it as “BBC analysis” and come to the same conclusion that a fifth of the U.K. adult population will be self isolating by mid August...

One can only hope that all this is designed to make the Govt drop the current policy on isolation, rather than the alternative...

Malmesbury

UK case summary

Malmesbury

UK R

Malmesbury

Age related data

Malmesbury

Vaccinations

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting, although "fully vaxed vs unvaxed" would be an interesting breakdown the proxy - age - suggests very little difference in opinion:

By 55% to 35% Britons think fully vaccinated travellers arriving into Britain from Amber list countries should continue to have to quarantine for up to 10 days

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1412816229052600320?s=20

Turn that question into "should I have to quarantine if I return from an amber country after being fully vaccinated" and it will be a completely different result.

FrancisUrquhart

alex_ said:

Oh look. The BBC have done the same back of a fag packet calculation as the Guardian, rebadged it as “BBC analysis” and come to the same conclusion that a fifth of the U.K. adult population will be self isolating by mid August...

One can only hope that all this is designed to make the Govt drop the current policy on isolation, rather than the alternative...

You mean they read the Guardian as they do every morning and copy / pasted the story....modern journalism for you...makes you proud.

While the Times journalist does their own idiotic analysis (stuck a ruler through the trend line) and come up with 4000 daily admissions incoming...i mean just how many undocumented unvaccinated migrants do they think there are living in sheds in slough that haven't already got covid while working on a building site to enable this to happen?

Malmesbury

Hospital vs cases

Big_G_NorthWales

Federer out losing the third set 6 - 0

RochdalePioneers

Sitting here in Fraserburgh leisure centre after my 2nd jab. They are hardly what I would call busy, significantly fewer people than 8 weeks ago with my first dose of Pfizer