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By-election shock results – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    alex_ said:

    Oh look. The BBC have done the same back of a fag packet calculation as the Guardian, rebadged it as “BBC analysis” and come to the same conclusion that a fifth of the U.K. adult population will be self isolating by mid August...

    One can only hope that all this is designed to make the Govt drop the current policy on isolation, rather than the alternative...

    You mean they read the Guardian as they do every morning and copy / pasted the story....modern journalism for you...makes you proud.

    While the Times journalist does their own idiotic analysis (stuck a ruler through the trend line) and come up with 4000 daily admissions incoming...i mean just how many undocumented unvaccinated migrants do they think there are living in sheds in slough that haven't already got covid while working on a building site to enable this to happen?
    "copy / pasted"

    Are you sure that they are that technically literate? I'm pretty sure that they will need to type it in....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    That is a stark table. Sometimes people don't know jack.

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Another fucking winter of this lockdown shitefest. Is intolerable

    Where do we go to escape? I’m just not suffering another. I’ll do myself in

    Thailand is likely off limits. Ditto Oz

    Hmmm

    I think by the time we get there the resistance to another lockdown will be massive and, tbh, with a booster programme I'd be surprised if we needed one.
    It's amazing how people pour scorn and vitriol on libertarians on the one hand and rely on them to lead the fight against authoritarianism with the other.
    That's not amazing - there's a time and place for anything, and the stereotype rails against even sensible or proportionate measures or rules out of some kneejerk philosophical position (which like any such position, doesn't do so well judged against reality not theory). But clearly there is a time when the mass of people rely on such awkwardness to defend against threats that will affect them but they don't care enough about.

    The difficulty is identifying where the line is. Automatically railing against anything is not the answer, nor is automatically defending something.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    32,548 people reported as testing positive for Covid today may disagree, as may the 386 admitted to hospital. But I hope you're right.
    If you're waiting for a point at which we can escape from this without suffering an exit wave then you're going to be waiting forever.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    Out of interest, how do they work out the vaccine efficiency against hospitalisations? The numerator (number of vaccinated people who get infected and are hospitalised) is a known figure. The dominator (number vaccinated and infected but don’t get hospitalised is not)?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    alex_ said:

    Oh look. The BBC have done the same back of a fag packet calculation as the Guardian, rebadged it as “BBC analysis” and come to the same conclusion that a fifth of the U.K. adult population will be self isolating by mid August...

    One can only hope that all this is designed to make the Govt drop the current policy on isolation, rather than the alternative...

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57751033
    4.5m people is not 20% of the UK adult population.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    That seems like the wrong link...PHE figure is 98% is it not?

    How do you get a million cases of vaccinated people in the UK? Or are you conflated vaccinated and unvaccinated populations as a whole....as if we end up with a million cases in the vaccinated in the UK ....well the world is going to hell in a handcart.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:


    Out of interest, how do they work out the vaccine efficiency against hospitalisations? The numerator (number of vaccinated people who get infected and are hospitalised) is a known figure. The dominator (number vaccinated and infected but don’t get hospitalised is not)?

    That's not the calculation. Instead, it's:

    X = number of hospitalised patients who are unvaccinated
    Y = estimated number of unvaccinated people in the population

    A = number of hospitalised patients who are vaccinated
    B = estimated number of vaccinated people in the population

    Efficacy = 1 - (A/B) / (X/Y)

    (They probably also adjust by age bands to get a more reliable estimate)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    Is that right, or should it be 7% of the number expected in hospital if they were unvaccinated?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    Is that right, or should it be 7% of the number expected in hospital if they were unvaccinated?
    My recollection is 7% sounds more like the unvaccinated figure. The initial chinese figures from 18 months ago was 10%.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    Is that right, or should it be 7% of the number expected in hospital if they were unvaccinated?
    Yes, correct.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    At the moment 88% of those being hospitalised are unvaccinated / one dose. There are ~2k new cases a day in fully vaccinated, so about 30-40 people from 2000 are ended up in hospital who are vaccinated. So with no age adjusting etc, about 1.5-2% after actually breaking through vaccine resistance which is already 60-90% efficacy.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Federer out losing the third set 6 - 0

    Gotterdammerung.

    I think between that defeat, Nadal getting beaten in the French and then deciding to take most of the Summer off, and what's happened to Murray, the curtain has finally come down on the Age of the Big Four. Nadal should be around for a little while longer, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murray and Federer both retired after the Olympics.

    We now enter a period which I think might best be described as Novak Djokovic Versus the World. We're going to find out how many records he can set before time finally catches up with him as well. If he wraps up Wimbledon on Sunday then the Grand Slam bid is well and truly on.
  • alex_ said:

    Oh look. The BBC have done the same back of a fag packet calculation as the Guardian, rebadged it as “BBC analysis” and come to the same conclusion that a fifth of the U.K. adult population will be self isolating by mid August...

    One can only hope that all this is designed to make the Govt drop the current policy on isolation, rather than the alternative...

    From the BBC/guardian, I highly suspect not 😂
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    Newham's vaccination numbers:

    1st dose: 54.8%
    2nd dose 33.9%

    As has been commented elsewhere, it may well be the high predominance of antibodies in the population suggests a lot of people have had the virus but asymptomatically.

    The questions I would have going forward are:

    1) Is there any evidence efficacy levels are falling in those already vaccinated? Some people might have been doubly vaccinated as far back as January (before the 12 week rule started) - do we know if their antibody levels are still high enough to resist the infection?

    2) The assumption seems to be a booster shot for all those over 50 from September - is this likely to be enough for a full 12 months or will be looking at a further booster in spring 2022?

    3) Do the level of protection and the longevity of the protection afforded from having had the virus differ from those who have been vaccinated?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Old father time is finally catching up with Roger Federer.

    I'd still back Federer in a five set match against him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    stodge said:

    Newham's vaccination numbers:

    1st dose: 54.8%
    2nd dose 33.9%

    As has been commented elsewhere, it may well be the high predominance of antibodies in the population suggests a lot of people have had the virus but asymptomatically.

    The questions I would have going forward are:

    1) Is there any evidence efficacy levels are falling in those already vaccinated? Some people might have been doubly vaccinated as far back as January (before the 12 week rule started) - do we know if their antibody levels are still high enough to resist the infection?

    2) The assumption seems to be a booster shot for all those over 50 from September - is this likely to be enough for a full 12 months or will be looking at a further booster in spring 2022?

    3) Do the level of protection and the longevity of the protection afforded from having had the virus differ from those who have been vaccinated?

    Recent research from Pfizer said they believe protection with their vaccine lasts many years before it really starts to drop off.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    stodge said:

    Newham's vaccination numbers:

    1st dose: 54.8%
    2nd dose 33.9%

    As has been commented elsewhere, it may well be the high predominance of antibodies in the population suggests a lot of people have had the virus but asymptomatically.

    The questions I would have going forward are:

    1) Is there any evidence efficacy levels are falling in those already vaccinated? Some people might have been doubly vaccinated as far back as January (before the 12 week rule started) - do we know if their antibody levels are still high enough to resist the infection?

    2) The assumption seems to be a booster shot for all those over 50 from September - is this likely to be enough for a full 12 months or will be looking at a further booster in spring 2022?

    3) Do the level of protection and the longevity of the protection afforded from having had the virus differ from those who have been vaccinated?

    I believe the answers to your questions are:

    1) There's a slight fall-off (you can see it in the antibody tests for the older age groups). It's not very clear how significant that is in clinical terms.

    2) I don't think anyone really knows.

    3) It's thought that vaccination gives better protection than infection [which seems odd to me, but that's what I've read].
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Federer out losing the third set 6 - 0

    Gotterdammerung.

    I think between that defeat, Nadal getting beaten in the French and then deciding to take most of the Summer off, and what's happened to Murray, the curtain has finally come down on the Age of the Big Four. Nadal should be around for a little while longer, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murray and Federer both retired after the Olympics.

    We now enter a period which I think might best be described as Novak Djokovic Versus the World. We're going to find out how many records he can set before time finally catches up with him as well. If he wraps up Wimbledon on Sunday then the Grand Slam bid is well and truly on.
    Yes - the Big One. And he is for me the best ever.

    Totally consumed by the football atm though. Had a few beers and ridiculously hyped up. Just caught my mug in the mirror - it's gone gammon.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    edited July 2021

    stodge said:

    Newham's vaccination numbers:

    1st dose: 54.8%
    2nd dose 33.9%

    As has been commented elsewhere, it may well be the high predominance of antibodies in the population suggests a lot of people have had the virus but asymptomatically.

    The questions I would have going forward are:

    1) Is there any evidence efficacy levels are falling in those already vaccinated? Some people might have been doubly vaccinated as far back as January (before the 12 week rule started) - do we know if their antibody levels are still high enough to resist the infection?

    2) The assumption seems to be a booster shot for all those over 50 from September - is this likely to be enough for a full 12 months or will be looking at a further booster in spring 2022?

    3) Do the level of protection and the longevity of the protection afforded from having had the virus differ from those who have been vaccinated?

    Recent research from Pfizer said they believe protection with their vaccine lasts many years before it really starts to drop off.
    Pedantic note - they believe it will last many years. Can’t actually have the data yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    Is that right, or should it be 7% of the number expected in hospital if they were unvaccinated?
    Yes, correct.
    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021

    stodge said:

    Newham's vaccination numbers:

    1st dose: 54.8%
    2nd dose 33.9%

    As has been commented elsewhere, it may well be the high predominance of antibodies in the population suggests a lot of people have had the virus but asymptomatically.

    The questions I would have going forward are:

    1) Is there any evidence efficacy levels are falling in those already vaccinated? Some people might have been doubly vaccinated as far back as January (before the 12 week rule started) - do we know if their antibody levels are still high enough to resist the infection?

    2) The assumption seems to be a booster shot for all those over 50 from September - is this likely to be enough for a full 12 months or will be looking at a further booster in spring 2022?

    3) Do the level of protection and the longevity of the protection afforded from having had the virus differ from those who have been vaccinated?

    I believe the answers to your questions are:

    1) There's a slight fall-off (you can see it in the antibody tests for the older age groups). It's not very clear how significant that is in clinical terms.

    2) I don't think anyone really knows.

    3) It's thought that vaccination gives better protection than infection [which seems odd to me, but that's what I've read].

    The vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna set off a persistent immune reaction in the body that may protect against the coronavirus for years, scientists reported on Monday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccines-immunity.amp.html

    There was an expert on the media this morning that said it may well be that protection / efficacy continues to increase long after initial jab.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    You just need to inform the doom-mongers now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Leon said:


    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

    Yes, something like that. For a given individual, the risk remains very dependent on age, of course.

    Still, once we're all double-jabbed + 2 weeks, we should be really quite safe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    This last year has been a total crash course in epidemiology, Virology, immunology, maths, percentages, mask wearing, masturbation, sourdough starters and apocalypse-peddling

    I’ve got the hang of several
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    I believe the booster jab isn't only about boosting the existing response by giving you the same again to return to previous levels of protection, but that it has been shown mix n match (and we are getting new versions targetted at the new variants) boost overall efficacy beyond existing 2 dose level.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:


    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

    Yes, something like that. For a given individual, the risk remains very dependent on age, of course.

    Still, once we're all double-jabbed + 2 weeks, we should be really quite safe.
    I’d love to know exactly how they work out “efficacy against hospitalisation”. It does seem fiendishly complex, the more I think about it. Almost imponderable. So many variables
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876


    I believe the answers to your questions are:

    1) There's a slight fall-off (you can see it in the antibody tests for the older age groups). It's not very clear how significant that is in clinical terms.

    2) I don't think anyone really knows.

    3) It's thought that vaccination gives better protection than infection [which seems odd to me, but that's what I've read].

    The vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna set off a persistent immune reaction in the body that may protect against the coronavirus for years, scientists reported on Monday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccines-immunity.amp.html

    There was an expert on the media this morning that said it may well be that protection / efficacy continues to increase long after initial jab.
    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I remember when Covid was over in early August last year.

    Good times.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    That is a stark table. Sometimes people don't know jack.

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Another fucking winter of this lockdown shitefest. Is intolerable

    Where do we go to escape? I’m just not suffering another. I’ll do myself in

    Thailand is likely off limits. Ditto Oz

    Hmmm

    I think by the time we get there the resistance to another lockdown will be massive and, tbh, with a booster programme I'd be surprised if we needed one.
    It's amazing how people pour scorn and vitriol on libertarians on the one hand and rely on them to lead the fight against authoritarianism with the other.
    That's not amazing - there's a time and place for anything, and the stereotype rails against even sensible or proportionate measures or rules out of some kneejerk philosophical position (which like any such position, doesn't do so well judged against reality not theory). But clearly there is a time when the mass of people rely on such awkwardness to defend against threats that will affect them but they don't care enough about.

    The difficulty is identifying where the line is. Automatically railing against anything is not the answer, nor is automatically defending something.
    I sleep easy at nights knowing that when the cry goes up "Aux barricades, fins de cloche," contrarian will answer the call.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    1Pickford
    2Walker
    5Stones
    6Maguire
    3Shaw
    14Phillips
    4Rice
    25Saka
    19Mount
    10Sterling
    9Kane

    Substitutes
    7Grealish
    8Henderson
    11Rashford
    12Trippier
    13Ramsdale
    15Mings
    16Coady
    17Sancho
    20Foden
    23Johnstone
    24James
    26Bellingham

    No Calvert-Lewin again ...if Harry only supposed to blow the bloody doors off Kane gets injuried, we have no replacement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    Someone who spotted that the game was on ITV?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

    Yes, something like that. For a given individual, the risk remains very dependent on age, of course.

    Still, once we're all double-jabbed + 2 weeks, we should be really quite safe.
    I’d love to know exactly how they work out “efficacy against hospitalisation”. It does seem fiendishly complex, the more I think about it. Almost imponderable. So many variables
    Its isn't really.....its the same principle as how they work out overall vaccine efficacy, just looking at different outcomes i e. Not just you caught it, but you ended up hospitalised. And you control against things like age.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    I thought they'd said recently here in the US that Pfizer/Moderna won't require booster shots.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I've made my peace with England getting knocked out tonight.

    This way it won't hurt so much when it happens.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I've made my peace with England getting knocked out tonight.

    This way it won't hurt so much when it happens.
    You expecting a loss tonight? I do, purely based on history 😂
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited July 2021
    On topic, what I take from Shadsy's table is that it's well worth betting on outsiders with implied odds on the day in the range 10-30% as there does seem to be some evidence they win much more than they "should" if markets were efficient. Would be interesting to see a longer history, albeit exchanges were less established pre-2015. Likewise, betting on favourites seems risky if there is any opposition at all (probably free money in Lewisham East or whatever).

    It has to be said Chesham & Amersham is a quite remarkable outlier in that table.

    With the other highlighted cases - Peterborough, Batley & Spen, and Richmond Park - they were pretty close on the day and you can construct a reason why the winner maybe had a bit of luck late on that meant their status as "outsider but not a totally hopeless one" was justified as late as the final day (sneaking in on a really divided UKIP/Tory vote in Peterborough, late swing in Batley due to Hancock and GOTV push, icy polling day in Richmond for the older voters).

    With C&A... I mean, she won by 8k votes - it wasn't at all close, and it is very hard to say that 13% implied odds was in any way reasonable based on the position approaching the final stretch.



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,661

    Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

    I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.
    Same source as the NHS staff, obviously...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Alistair said:

    Old father time is finally catching up with Roger Federer.

    I'd still back Federer in a five set match against him.
    Yes, but his game’s cricket, so not a fair contest.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    stodge said:


    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

    I think the jury is still out on how important boosters will be, and indeed on whether the AZ jab is less effective in the long term than the mRNA ones. The AZ one is slower-acting, but the eventual protection looks pretty similar, for the moment at least.

    I don't think the current plan for boosters differentiates between those who've had the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635

    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I've made my peace with England getting knocked out tonight.

    This way it won't hurt so much when it happens.
    You expecting a loss tonight? I do, purely based on history 😂
    Yup, this is England, I've been following England for the better part of four decades.

    We lost to Iceland, that's my benchmark for England performances.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I thought it was the football you couldn’t stand ? :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    stodge said:


    I believe the answers to your questions are:

    1) There's a slight fall-off (you can see it in the antibody tests for the older age groups). It's not very clear how significant that is in clinical terms.

    2) I don't think anyone really knows.

    3) It's thought that vaccination gives better protection than infection [which seems odd to me, but that's what I've read].

    The vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna set off a persistent immune reaction in the body that may protect against the coronavirus for years, scientists reported on Monday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccines-immunity.amp.html

    There was an expert on the media this morning that said it may well be that protection / efficacy continues to increase long after initial jab.
    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

    The old and the vulnerable will more likely to see some drop off. But the booster is also about bumping up overall levels of protection via mix n match / new variant targeted versions of the vaccines....not just has the original antibody / t-cell response diminished.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,661
    Leon said:

    This last year has been a total crash course in epidemiology, Virology, immunology, maths, percentages, mask wearing, masturbation, sourdough starters and apocalypse-peddling

    I’ve got the hang of several

    You missed out conspiracy mongering...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

    Yes, something like that. For a given individual, the risk remains very dependent on age, of course.

    Still, once we're all double-jabbed + 2 weeks, we should be really quite safe.
    I’d love to know exactly how they work out “efficacy against hospitalisation”. It does seem fiendishly complex, the more I think about it. Almost imponderable. So many variables
    Its isn't really.....
    It is. To my sunburned brain. Presumably you take 1000 vaxxed and infected and 1000 unvaxed and infected, and find out how many went to hozzy in each scenario

    But then, as Richard suggests, you have to factor in age, gender, health status, co-morbidities, prior infection, variant of plague. Etc. There are so many confounding factors the bald statement ‘93% effective against hospital admission’ seems kinda useless

    I’m also somewhat perturbed by these stories of people previously infected getting new infections. Is that common in viruses? That a previous infection does NOT give you immunity to a new mutation?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    I thought they'd said recently here in the US that Pfizer/Moderna won't require booster shots.
    UK is majority Az. Boosters are useful in the oldest due to immunity wane
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    Federer out losing the third set 6 - 0

    Gotterdammerung.

    I think between that defeat, Nadal getting beaten in the French and then deciding to take most of the Summer off, and what's happened to Murray, the curtain has finally come down on the Age of the Big Four. Nadal should be around for a little while longer, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murray and Federer both retired after the Olympics.

    We now enter a period which I think might best be described as Novak Djokovic Versus the World. We're going to find out how many records he can set before time finally catches up with him as well. If he wraps up Wimbledon on Sunday then the Grand Slam bid is well and truly on.
    Yes - the Big One. And he is for me the best ever.

    Totally consumed by the football atm though. Had a few beers and ridiculously hyped up. Just caught my mug in the mirror - it's gone gammon.
    Watching Berrettini and FAA slug it out on BBC2 at the moment. I *might* switch over to ITV circa 8pm, depending on how my nerves are feeling...

    ...oh, and I predict disaster, collapse at the final hurdle, a Danish triumph. Radical Pessimism: it's done the trick so far...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    1Pickford
    2Walker
    5Stones
    6Maguire
    3Shaw
    14Phillips
    4Rice
    25Saka
    19Mount
    10Sterling
    9Kane

    Substitutes
    7Grealish
    8Henderson
    11Rashford
    12Trippier
    13Ramsdale
    15Mings
    16Coady
    17Sancho
    20Foden
    23Johnstone
    24James
    26Bellingham

    No Calvert-Lewin again ...if Harry only supposed to blow the bloody doors off Kane gets injuried, we have no replacement.

    Mount instead of Grealish? Just don't get that at all. Sancho not keeping his place? Don't understand this either. Really not sure about 2 defensive midfielders either but in fairness England have yet to concede a goal.

    I am not seeing as much attacking imagination as this team should have. Denmark are going to run themselves into the ground but I don't see the quality. England really should win this. Despite ITV.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020

    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I've made my peace with England getting knocked out tonight.

    This way it won't hurt so much when it happens.
    You expecting a loss tonight? I do, purely based on history 😂
    Yup, this is England, I've been following England for the better part of four decades.

    We lost to Iceland, that's my benchmark for England performances.
    Its the hope that kills you....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I've made my peace with England getting knocked out tonight.

    This way it won't hurt so much when it happens.
    I’ve got the nerves again. Been feeling quietly confident all day, almost blithe. Now…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

    I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.
    Well, they could start with the 5,000-odd civil servants at the DfE.

    These people are so brilliant they came up with an entire new way of behaviour management that they are convinced will solve every problem in education despite never having led a class or indeed being able to write grammatical English.

    So I am sure they would be a great success in schools as extra teaching staff.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

    Yes, something like that. For a given individual, the risk remains very dependent on age, of course.

    Still, once we're all double-jabbed + 2 weeks, we should be really quite safe.
    I’d love to know exactly how they work out “efficacy against hospitalisation”. It does seem fiendishly complex, the more I think about it. Almost imponderable. So many variables
    Its isn't really.....
    It is. To my sunburned brain. Presumably you take 1000 vaxxed and infected and 1000 unvaxed and infected, and find out how many went to hozzy in each scenario

    But then, as Richard suggests, you have to factor in age, gender, health status, co-morbidities, prior infection, variant of plague. Etc. There are so many confounding factors the bald statement ‘93% effective against hospital admission’ seems kinda useless

    I’m also somewhat perturbed by these stories of people previously infected getting new infections. Is that common in viruses? That a previous infection does NOT give you immunity to a new mutation?
    The reinfection rate so far as measured by the ONS is tiny. I think they said estimated at 15k potential cases, only 600 confirmed. And they looked into severity / viral load and basically first time around, even spread of seveity / viral load, with reinfection, bar the odd unfortunate sod, all on the low viral load / severity side of things (also means harder for them to pass it on).

    As for "complex", thats why you have data scientists with computer packages that are built for exactly this kind of analysis. It really isn't that hard to plug all that data in and ask the computer to control for certain parameters / known variable differences...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Indeed my nerves about England and my generalised anxiety about Covid have blended into some unique and potent cocktail of unsettledness
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Leon said:

    Indeed my nerves about England and my generalised anxiety about Covid have blended into some unique and potent cocktail of unsettledness

    In more important sporting news:

    Chris Tavaré was seen weeping into his evening beer as news from Southampton confirmed he had lost his title as the most stubborn and slowest batsman of all time.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/county-championship-2021-1244186/hampshire-vs-surrey-group-2-1244294/full-scorecard
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,661
    edited July 2021
    On the one hand Kasper is the only Leicester player still in the contest, on the other hand Kane always scores against him.

    I think 1.81 is good value on the England win, and have had a little nibble of England -1 in the handicap markets too.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    stodge said:


    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

    I think the jury is still out on how important boosters will be, and indeed on whether the AZ jab is less effective in the long term than the mRNA ones. The AZ one is slower-acting, but the eventual protection looks pretty similar, for the moment at least.

    I don't think the current plan for boosters differentiates between those who've had the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.
    The Pharma companies have got a difficult balancing act of both talking up the effectiveness of their existing vaccines, but with one eye on the sales of boosters in the future.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2021
    Federer was ahead in the second set by 4 games to 1. What happened?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Indeed my nerves about England and my generalised anxiety about Covid have blended into some unique and potent cocktail of unsettledness

    In more important sporting news:

    Chris Tavaré was seen weeping into his evening beer as news from Southampton confirmed he had lost his title as the most stubborn and slowest batsman of all time.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/county-championship-2021-1244186/hampshire-vs-surrey-group-2-1244294/full-scorecard
    Splendid from Amla.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,661
    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    That is pretty alarmist from Lintern, who is usually phlegmatic. It's going to be a cruel summer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    DavidL said:

    1Pickford
    2Walker
    5Stones
    6Maguire
    3Shaw
    14Phillips
    4Rice
    25Saka
    19Mount
    10Sterling
    9Kane

    Substitutes
    7Grealish
    8Henderson
    11Rashford
    12Trippier
    13Ramsdale
    15Mings
    16Coady
    17Sancho
    20Foden
    23Johnstone
    24James
    26Bellingham

    No Calvert-Lewin again ...if Harry only supposed to blow the bloody doors off Kane gets injuried, we have no replacement.

    Mount instead of Grealish? Just don't get that at all. Sancho not keeping his place? Don't understand this either. Really not sure about 2 defensive midfielders either but in fairness England have yet to concede a goal.

    I am not seeing as much attacking imagination as this team should have. Denmark are going to run themselves into the ground but I don't see the quality. England really should win this. Despite ITV.
    Mount gets the nod for Southgate because of his defensive abilities and general steadyness. Saka vs Sancho vs Foden...for me its Foden everytime.

    But remember Southgate and Holland watch words are they don't want what they call chaotic situations. E.g. apparently they tell Rice to play really slowly, as they are worried if he plays at the pace he does for West Ham he might spray a bad pass....

    The whole strategy is based around not conceding and controlling the situations as much as possible. So unpredictable players aren't big priority for this approach e.g. a Grealish.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    Indeed it is. We hear it all the time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    That is pretty alarmist from Lintern, who is usually phlegmatic. It's going to be a cruel summer.
    Bloody Bananarama
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

    I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.
    Well, they could start with the 5,000-odd civil servants at the DfE.

    These people are so brilliant they came up with an entire new way of behaviour management that they are convinced will solve every problem in education despite never having led a class or indeed being able to write grammatical English.

    So I am sure they would be a great success in schools as extra teaching staff.
    In the meantime they intend to radically overhaul teacher training, the proposed measures for which are likely to see a sharp dip in numbers in training for at least a year.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    Federer was ahead in the second set by 4 games to 1. What happened?

    Hurkacz played very well and Federer made a lot of mistakes. The latter was quite simply outclassed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    It does sound hyperbolic. But foxy says this guy is normally calm?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Indeed my nerves about England and my generalised anxiety about Covid have blended into some unique and potent cocktail of unsettledness

    In more important sporting news:

    Chris Tavaré was seen weeping into his evening beer as news from Southampton confirmed he had lost his title as the most stubborn and slowest batsman of all time.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/county-championship-2021-1244186/hampshire-vs-surrey-group-2-1244294/full-scorecard
    Splendid from Amla.
    Looking at next week’s weather, I think the equation is simple.

    Somerset go through. But then, given the way the ECB have been cheating and lying to keep them out of the running for reasons that defy rational explanation, I’m actually quite pleased about that.

    One of Surrey, Glos and Hants will join them.

    But - next week’s forecast is poor.

    Surrey have to win and hope Glos v Hants is a total washout. Which is not impossible but is highly improbable.

    If Glos beat Middlesex tomorrow - which may be a tall order given how easy the pitch has become and the minor detail they are missing three first choice bowlers - they only need to draw to qualify for the First Division. Hampshire would have to win.

    If Middlesex draw, then Gloucestershire need to beat Hants. Which isn’t going to happen, if only because the forecast for Cheltenham is absolutely awful.

    So I would make Somerset and Hants very near to certainties to go through unless Glos win tomorrow.

    And Glos have nobody to blame but themselves. Nobody should be beaten by Leicestershire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    With regards to our situation with Covid, I prefer: "we will be restoring normality just as soon as we are sure what is normal anyway.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Indeed my nerves about England and my generalised anxiety about Covid have blended into some unique and potent cocktail of unsettledness

    In more important sporting news:

    Chris Tavaré was seen weeping into his evening beer as news from Southampton confirmed he had lost his title as the most stubborn and slowest batsman of all time.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/county-championship-2021-1244186/hampshire-vs-surrey-group-2-1244294/full-scorecard
    Splendid from Amla.
    Looking at next week’s weather, I think the equation is simple.

    Somerset go through. But then, given the way the ECB have been cheating and lying to keep them out of the running for reasons that defy rational explanation, I’m actually quite pleased about that.

    One of Surrey, Glos and Hants will join them.

    But - next week’s forecast is poor.

    Surrey have to win and hope Glos v Hants is a total washout. Which is not impossible but is highly improbable.

    If Glos beat Middlesex tomorrow - which may be a tall order given how easy the pitch has become and the minor detail they are missing three first choice bowlers - they only need to draw to qualify for the First Division. Hampshire would have to win.

    If Middlesex draw, then Gloucestershire need to beat Hants. Which isn’t going to happen, if only because the forecast for Cheltenham is absolutely awful.

    So I would make Somerset and Hants very near to certainties to go through unless Glos win tomorrow.

    And Glos have nobody to blame but themselves. Nobody should be beaten by Leicestershire.
    I’m just celebrating Bess’ career best figures for Yorkshire.
    At the rate England players are isolating, he’ll be back in the team soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

    I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.
    Well, they could start with the 5,000-odd civil servants at the DfE.

    These people are so brilliant they came up with an entire new way of behaviour management that they are convinced will solve every problem in education despite never having led a class or indeed being able to write grammatical English.

    So I am sure they would be a great success in schools as extra teaching staff.
    In the meantime they intend to radically overhaul teacher training, the proposed measures for which are likely to see a sharp dip in numbers in training for at least a year.
    That was another extraordinary example of how the stupid bastards simply can’t count.

    They have eight professional standards, so they came up with five parts for the new ITT/RQT framework.

    I mean, WTF?

    And that’s not even the worst part of it. The patronising tone coupled with a clear lack of any sort of knowledge of what the writers were babbling about is the worst part.

    It’s a confused mess written in pidgin English.

    Whoever wrote it should be locked up in a secure hospital.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    With regards to our situation with Covid, I prefer: "we will be restoring normality just as soon as we are sure what is normal anyway.”
    "Anything you still can't cope with is therefore your own problem."
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876

    stodge said:


    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

    I think the jury is still out on how important boosters will be, and indeed on whether the AZ jab is less effective in the long term than the mRNA ones. The AZ one is slower-acting, but the eventual protection looks pretty similar, for the moment at least.

    I don't think the current plan for boosters differentiates between those who've had the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.
    Thanks again - I'm just trying to see the argument for the booster vaccination (accepting it will be required for the clinically vulnerable). If, as some on here assert, the current vaccines are something different, is it not possible we won't need a booster for this autumn and can perhaps go through to next spring?

    I'm also questioning the costs and the logistics of a booster vaccination programme if it seems clear the current vaccination regimen will provide high levels of immunity over an extended period?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    It does sound hyperbolic. But foxy says this guy is normally calm?
    Shaun Lintern is a random second-string journalist peddling alarmism to generate clickbait. His hot takes on this issue are worthless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    I can cope with England going out tonight. I can cope with a new variant of coronavirus sweeping in and killing a third of humanity. I just can’t cope with BOTH
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    This last year has been a total crash course in epidemiology, Virology, immunology, maths, percentages, mask wearing, masturbation, sourdough starters and apocalypse-peddling

    I’ve got the hang of several

    You missed out conspiracy mongering...
    You still a wet market man? If you are, you are Sherlock Holmes in a Matt cartoon in the case of the insanely fucked up virus standing in front of the Wuhan institute of insanely fucked up virology and saying "if only we had one single clue, Watson!"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    It does sound hyperbolic. But foxy says this guy is normally calm?
    Shaun Lintern is a random second-string journalist peddling alarmism to generate clickbait. His hot takes on this issue are worthless.
    Fair enough. I send a tut at foxy for giving him the oxygen of Pb publicity
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    The thread explains, In A&E at @LeedsHospitals the trust is seeing over 100 patients more than its normal daily average with 8 hour waits to be seen.

    If you think this information is wrong, please share. But if it's correct, and bearing in mind case rates will almost certainly rise beyond the current, you might expect governments to have contingency plans in place. Yes, hospitalisations will rise but we are doing X, Y, Z, so we expect to be OK. I wouldn't necessarily expect them to share the details with the public, but I would some indication that such a plan exists.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Got a feeling England will do it tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    It does sound hyperbolic. But foxy says this guy is normally calm?
    Shaun Lintern is a random second-string journalist peddling alarmism to generate clickbait. His hot takes on this issue are worthless.
    He's worked on health matters for 15 years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

    I think the jury is still out on how important boosters will be, and indeed on whether the AZ jab is less effective in the long term than the mRNA ones. The AZ one is slower-acting, but the eventual protection looks pretty similar, for the moment at least.

    I don't think the current plan for boosters differentiates between those who've had the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.
    Thanks again - I'm just trying to see the argument for the booster vaccination (accepting it will be required for the clinically vulnerable). If, as some on here assert, the current vaccines are something different, is it not possible we won't need a booster for this autumn and can perhaps go through to next spring?

    I'm also questioning the costs and the logistics of a booster vaccination programme if it seems clear the current vaccination regimen will provide high levels of immunity over an extended period?
    The cost should not be considered as a significant issue - compared with the costs of a potential further lockdown, it's negligible.

    Logistics? Well, we'll be doing full flu jab roll-out anyway so the additional logistics will be manageable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    Sounds like a tricky work environment....

    BBC News - Gates Foundation agrees break-up back-up plan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57756506

    That netflix documentary from last year about gates is looking a bit dated now...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    This Majorcan square is full of drunk, happy Germans. It’s ok for them, they’re already OUT

    Imagine being Scottish, and never having any anxiety about sports EVER, because you know you are totally useless on a world class level, and you can never win ANYTHING

    They must be supremely chilled. As we see daily
  • juniusjunius Posts: 73
    Cyclefree said:

    A quote for the evening.

    "It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

    I didn't realise Cyclefree supported Wolverhampton Wanderers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021
    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    First, thank you @Richard_Nabavi for the responses.

    If @FrancisUrquhart is correct, those who have had Pfizer may not need an autumn booster against the coronavirus - the normal flu jab is a different matter of course.

    It seems those of us who have had Astra Zeneca may require the booster or is the jury still out on that one?

    In any case, isn't it probable the vaccines themselves will have improved to provide greater and longer-lasting efficacy?

    I think the jury is still out on how important boosters will be, and indeed on whether the AZ jab is less effective in the long term than the mRNA ones. The AZ one is slower-acting, but the eventual protection looks pretty similar, for the moment at least.

    I don't think the current plan for boosters differentiates between those who've had the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.
    Thanks again - I'm just trying to see the argument for the booster vaccination (accepting it will be required for the clinically vulnerable). If, as some on here assert, the current vaccines are something different, is it not possible we won't need a booster for this autumn and can perhaps go through to next spring?

    I'm also questioning the costs and the logistics of a booster vaccination programme if it seems clear the current vaccination regimen will provide high levels of immunity over an extended period?
    A week of lockdown costs over £10bn.....vaccine booster shots are a rounding error if it saves the minimum 4 week period required for an effective lockdown.

    And we already give a flu jab to most of the people being called for a booster shot.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    I can cope with England going out tonight. I can cope with a new variant of coronavirus sweeping in and killing a third of humanity. I just can’t cope with BOTH

    None of us would cope with the latter. At least not in any recognised sense of the word 'cope'.

    (But I know what you mean)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Sounds like a tricky work environment....

    BBC News - Gates Foundation agrees break-up back-up plan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57756506

    That netflix documentary from last year about gates is looking a bit dated now...

    You should never open up the Gates.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    This Majorcan square is full of drunk, happy Germans. It’s ok for them, they’re already OUT

    Imagine being Scottish, and never having any anxiety about sports EVER, because you know you are totally useless on a world class level, and you can never win ANYTHING

    They must be supremely chilled. As we see daily

    From the days when the DM was sometimes funny

    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/bookish-australians-indifferent-to-olympics-success-2012080637155
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Indeed my nerves about England and my generalised anxiety about Covid have blended into some unique and potent cocktail of unsettledness

    In more important sporting news:

    Chris Tavaré was seen weeping into his evening beer as news from Southampton confirmed he had lost his title as the most stubborn and slowest batsman of all time.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/county-championship-2021-1244186/hampshire-vs-surrey-group-2-1244294/full-scorecard
    Splendid from Amla.
    Looking at next week’s weather, I think the equation is simple.

    Somerset go through. But then, given the way the ECB have been cheating and lying to keep them out of the running for reasons that defy rational explanation, I’m actually quite pleased about that.

    One of Surrey, Glos and Hants will join them.

    But - next week’s forecast is poor.

    Surrey have to win and hope Glos v Hants is a total washout. Which is not impossible but is highly improbable.

    If Glos beat Middlesex tomorrow - which may be a tall order given how easy the pitch has become and the minor detail they are missing three first choice bowlers - they only need to draw to qualify for the First Division. Hampshire would have to win.

    If Middlesex draw, then Gloucestershire need to beat Hants. Which isn’t going to happen, if only because the forecast for Cheltenham is absolutely awful.

    So I would make Somerset and Hants very near to certainties to go through unless Glos win tomorrow.

    And Glos have nobody to blame but themselves. Nobody should be beaten by Leicestershire.
    Gosh- is Cheltenham really that placid?

    If Hampshire don't make it, they won't be able to complain that much- that's twice they've just failed to close out on the final day when it looked straightforward.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson confirms at liaison committee govt *will* push for longer school days: "The evidence on lengthening the school day wasn't as powerful as it was on tuition, for instance, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do - I do think it's the right thing to do."

    I’ll be interested to see where they plan on getting more teachers from.
    Same source as the NHS staff, obviously...
    We have an ex-GP teaching with at the moment as it happens...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    It does sound hyperbolic. But foxy says this guy is normally calm?
    Shaun Lintern is a random second-string journalist peddling alarmism to generate clickbait. His hot takes on this issue are worthless.
    He's worked on health matters for 15 years.
    I know of no particular rule that says that only hacks who started work last week can peddle alarmism to generate clickbait.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There will not be a winter lockdown in the UK.

    Brits will, however, be offered vaccine booster shots (probably Novavax and Moderna/Pfizer) in the Autumn.

    Delta will, on the whole, be regarded as a positive, as it will ensure that large numbers of (mostly low risk) Brits will have antibodies.

    Covid 19 is a constrained virus: if it mutates much, it simply won't be able to bind with the ACE2 receptor. And that should make us all pretty optimistic that the bug is on the way out.

    Do you think there will be a de facto lockdown during the winter?

    I remember how quiet the country had become before the first lockdown.

    I'll never forget that eerie moment in March 2020 when at 5pm there were six people at Manchester Piccadilly station when normally it is usually like the first twenty minutes of Saving Private Ryan.
    No.

    Covid is over. We just haven't woken up to it yet.
    A few days ago you were asking whether UK cases had peaked.
    Three weeks ago you said you thought delta would just be a blip that would soon burn itself out.
    This just seems like wishful thinking I'm afraid.
    It's over.

    Everyone who wants the vaccine can get it. The vaccines are 98% effective against hospitalisations.

    Schools will close and that's the major vector of both transmission and testing.

    It's over.
    I'm not sure it's 98%

    The FT did a breakdown of the vax efficacy yesterday. AZ and PF are between 92-96% effective against hospital admission, with a probable consensus around 93%

    That means more than 1 in 20 will go to the hozzy. 7%

    It's way better than no vax but if you get one million cases that's 70,000 hospital admissions, if you use this raw data

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6059766-50e6-4bc8-888d-c3aaadf56c5c
    Is that right, or should it be 7% of the number expected in hospital if they were unvaccinated?
    Yes, correct.
    Have I got that completely wrong then? It’s not unknown

    So it’s actually 7% of 10% of 1m?

    So a million cases would be 7,000 admissions? Much more reassuring, if so

    Given that you predicted two million British deaths and backed Henrietta’s outlandish productions of billions of confirmed infection cases by summer 2020, I think it’s fair to conclude that basic numeracy isn’t your strong point ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BoZo would absolutely support the other home nations...



    Twat
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    COVID and the brain: researchers zero in on how damage occurs
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01693-6
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Presumably the Denmark rampers on here have taken the 3.65 available on them?

    (I have had some as insurance)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    I have a bad feeling Denmark are going to win.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    Midlife crisis Moron is still banging on about pressure in sport...not like the war...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited July 2021

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    This. Governments have no plan. They have an absence of a plan. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn 't. They are not bothering to work it out.

    We have health ministers saying we need to learn to live with Covid - cases could hit 100,000 a day. The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen.

    It doesn't appear to me, that any consideration, or provision for this, has been made by Govt


    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1412750281406926850

    "The NHS is facing a summer crisis deeper than any winter it has seen."

    Rubbish.
    It does sound hyperbolic. But foxy says this guy is normally calm?
    Shaun Lintern is a random second-string journalist peddling alarmism to generate clickbait. His hot takes on this issue are worthless.
    He's worked on health matters for 15 years.
    Prof Peston read a blog last night about hospital throughput and now is self proclaimed more knowledgeable....
This discussion has been closed.