Why the LDs and LAB could be the main beneficiaries of compulsory voter ID – politicalbetting.com

First perhaps. Passports are very different from ID cards.

Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.

Or disposable income creates options for luxuries such as ideals.

Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

Floater said:

Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

Lumme

Does he note any major differences in symptoms?

Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example

Manx Missile going for another stage win today.....

Remember to take your pisspot to the polling station.

(I blame auto-correct)

It's america, but I'm surprised the ratio in history is so high (albeit less than the average).

Economics has this reputation in academia of being a really right-wing field because there’s only a 5 to 1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans on the faculty instead of 17:1 in history or 44:1 in sociology.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1412011840956141570

Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

Nigelb said:

VW sells a majority stake in Bugatti to Croatian Rimac...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/croatian-ev-company-rimac-takes-majority-stake-in-supercar-maker-bugatti-01625514608?mod=home-page

Hardly surprising given how far ahead Rimac is with electric drives compared to absolutely everyone else...

contrarian said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.

for those who can afford it.

For many who voted leave, the whole idea of working and living in Europe, so beloved of remainers, was meaningless. They could not afford a week in Benidorm, let alone a home in Provence.

That is why you lost.

"It is true, as was said by a gentleman near me, the meanest man in England ought to have [a voice in the election of the government he lives under—but only if he has some local interest]. I say this: that those that have the meanest local interest—that man that hath but forty shillings a year, he hath as great voice in the election of a knight for the shire as he that hath ten thousand a year, or more if he had never so much; and therefore there is that regard had to it."

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

400 admissions seems pretty bad.

That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.

thank you for the support❤️ https://twitter.com/EmmaRaducanu/status/1412423562577780746/photo/1

Looks like the quarter final has hit the COVID case numbers today and will be very high tomorrow. 2k PCR positives on Monday by specimen date is very high for the previous day. I'm less bothered by LFT positives than most so even at 7k it's still a big who cares, but I did expect it to come in significantly higher for Monday as people do them before going back to work etc...

Whoever benefits, intentionally making voting more difficult is wrong, unless there is a compelling and objective reason to do so.

In any case I think the real target of the disenfranchisement is ethnic minorities, not poor whites, although no-one will say so.

state_go_away said:

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

400 admissions seems pretty bad.

That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.

So about 10 per county ? Hardly a need to lockdown

Nearly two-thirds of a single admission per constituency.

state_go_away said:

Cookie said:

Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end

I think you'd struggle to find anybody who doesn't want Covid to end. Maybe those who are making a lot of money out of it, but that's about it.

Floater said:

Leon said:

Floater said:

Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

Lumme

Does he note any major differences in symptoms?

Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example

Last time he was rough for 48 hours tops - this time its longer than that - he seemed a bit better yesterday but not so good today.

Temperature is better - 37.1 earlier - sats at 94 last reading

He says he has only lost his sense of taste today

He is young but has some severe health issues which are a concern

Sounds quite nasty. Best of luck to them

state_go_away said:

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

400 admissions seems pretty bad.

That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.

So about 10 per county ? Hardly a need to lockdown

I'm not arguing for a lockdown. I provided the numbers from last autumn solely for context.

Scott_xP said:

thank you for the support❤️ https://twitter.com/EmmaRaducanu/status/1412423562577780746/photo/1

She sounds a well-balanced young woman. Next tournament will be less of a physical challenge.

Floater said:

OldKingCole said:

Floater said:

TimT said:

Floater said:

Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.

See other post ......

I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him

Potential bacterial chest infection? Mild asthmatics?

I assume its because of the noise he makes whilst breathing - when he was about 16 he had pneumonia - no idea if that a factor

Quite probably. Same GP?

The Speccie has picked up on a stat from Sajid Javid today that bears scrutiny.

He said the government estimates that seven million people did not present themselves for help with serious conditions such as cancer and heart disease during the pandemic. Seven million.

How afraid of covid must these people have been, to fail to come forward for conditions much more life threatening than covid for the vast majority?

Who,moreover, is responsible for making these people think that way?

contrarian said:

The Speccie has picked up on a stat from Sajid Javid today that bears scrutiny.

He said the government estimates that seven million people did not present themselves for help with serious conditions such as cancer and heart disease during the pandemic. Seven million.

How afraid of covid must these people have been, to fail to come forward for conditions much more life threatening than covid for the vast majority?

Who,moreover, is responsible for making these people think that way?

Excessive difficulty in accessing a GP? The local practice is highly regarded, but even telephone consultations are difficult to obtain now.

What proportion of over 60s have a Freedom Pass? Surely that's much more likely than a passport or a driving license? I believe those are photocards, although it might just be the London Oyster version I'm thinking of.

Anyway, the attempts to stop postal vote harvesting are way more important than requiring voter ID, in my book.

OldKingCole said:

Scott_xP said:

thank you for the support❤️ https://twitter.com/EmmaRaducanu/status/1412423562577780746/photo/1

She sounds a well-balanced young woman. Next tournament will be less of a physical challenge.

Yes, she does. And I don't think John McEnroe deserves the shit he got for the temerity to suggest the situation might have been overwhelming for her, and to admire how the best modern tennis players deal with the pressure. I did not take his comments negatively against the young lady in the slightest, more as a remark on how pressured the system has become and how hard it is to thrive in it.

OldKingCole said:

Floater said:

OldKingCole said:

Floater said:

TimT said:

Floater said:

Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.

See other post ......

I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him

Potential bacterial chest infection? Mild asthmatics?

I assume its because of the noise he makes whilst breathing - when he was about 16 he had pneumonia - no idea if that a factor

Quite probably. Same GP?

No - but the current doc is well aware of his more recent medical issues

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...

eek said:

Endillion said:

What proportion of over 60s have a Freedom Pass? Surely that's much more likely than a passport or a driving license? I believe those are photocards, although it might just be the London Oyster version I'm thinking of.

Anyway, the attempts to stop postal vote harvesting are way more important than requiring voter ID, in my book.

What attempts to stop postal vote harvesting....

The bill will ban party campaigners from handling postal votes, "put a stop to postal vote harvesting and make it an offence for a person to attempt to find out or reveal who an absent voter has chosen to vote for," the Cabinet Office said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57723200

londonpubman said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...

Coughs. You said 100,000 a day THIS WEEK.

londonpubman said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...

I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?

Hmm.
I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).

Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.

I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.

Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).

Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.

(Remember - England-only data).

While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?

londonpubman said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...

If we reached 100,000 a day, then (assuming hospitalisations and numbers in hospital rose at the same rate) we could anticipate c.1,500 admissions a day, and c.7,600 people in hospital. Those numbers would be well within NHS capacity.

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?

If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?

If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?

We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?

UK cases by specimen date

Andy_Cooke said:

Hmm.
I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).

Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.

I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.

Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).

Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.

(Remember - England-only data).

While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.

Interesting. What assumptions did you make for the vaccinated being able to be infected, and being able to infect?

Cookie said:

Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

What this shows is how easy it is to scare people. Has it always been like this, or have people become more risk averse over the last 10 to 15 years, I wonder.

UK hospitals

+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.

Andy_JS said:

Cookie said:

Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

What this shows is how easy it is to scare people. Has it always been like this, or have people become more risk averse over the last 10 to 15 years, I wonder.

I am convinced that, over generations, we have become more risk averse in line with our increased ability to control our environment.

Before Germ Theory was widely accepted in the West (relatively recently - 1880s or so, compared with 1000 years ago in Arab medicine) people fatalistically accepted infectious disease, just as one would drought or other pestilence over which they had no control, or we do the weather.

UK R

Vaccinations

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?

If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?

We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?

Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?

The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.

But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.

Cookie said:

Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

That's awful. Loving this aren't they. Arseholes.

The message needs to get through to these pea brains that the vaccines are the silver bullet - the only one - and they don't get to have the opportunity to be jabbed and still play their totalitarian games.

Philip_Thompson said:

londonpubman said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

28k....37....406

Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.

I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...

I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?

I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?

williamglenn said:

+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.

I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?

Rubbish weather in SW London again today. So far this summer is ranking amongst the worst I've ever seen in the UK - which is bad luck given the current circumstanes. Could really have done with one like 2018.