Categories
Why the LDs and LAB could be the main beneficiaries of compulsory voter ID – politicalbetting.com
Why the LDs and LAB could be the main beneficiaries of compulsory voter ID – politicalbetting.com
The above chart by Deltapoll should be a warning to Mr. Johnson about the dangers to his party of pressing forward with voter ID. It was published 2 years ago and shows the constituency relationship between having no passport and voting leave. As can be seen there is a correlation – the smaller the proportion with passports in a constituency the greater the chance it voted Leave.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
For many who voted leave, the whole idea of working and living in Europe, so beloved of remainers, was meaningless. They could not afford a week in Benidorm, let alone a home in Provence.
That is why you lost.
He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"
Does he note any major differences in symptoms?
Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example
Is it prying to ask, why antibiotics?
(I blame auto-correct)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/croatian-ev-company-rimac-takes-majority-stake-in-supercar-maker-bugatti-01625514608?mod=home-page
Economics has this reputation in academia of being a really right-wing field because there’s only a 5 to 1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans on the faculty instead of 17:1 in history or 44:1 in sociology.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1412011840956141570
Everytime SKS has a decent PMQs there is a thread header about it.
I'm not sure that means Covid, as that is a virus - but more that he is chesty and wheezy
His sats were poor the other day, but he promises me they are improved. Although still lower than should be and he assures me docs are aware.
He has certain OCD behaviours he engages in, he hasn't even bothered with those last couple of days which tells me he is rough tbh
Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.
Temperature is better - 37.1 earlier - sats at 94 last reading
He says he has only lost his sense of taste today
He is young but has some severe health issues which are a concern
That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.
I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
In any case I think the real target of the disenfranchisement is ethnic minorities, not poor whites, although no-one will say so.
Yes, secondary bacterial infections are a worry with many viral respiratory infections. So it may be his doctor is ordering him to take the antibiotics prophylactically.
https://pneumonia.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41479-021-00083-w
It will be Friday or Saturday before we see the QuarterFinal impact.
What's the tweet about?
SPOTY candidate?
He said the government estimates that seven million people did not present themselves for help with serious conditions such as cancer and heart disease during the pandemic. Seven million.
How afraid of covid must these people have been, to fail to come forward for conditions much more life threatening than covid for the vast majority?
Who,moreover, is responsible for making these people think that way?
But in the other direction, leave was surely higher among small town dwellers and van-driving tradesmen, and lower among metropolitans who normally use public transport. It's not obvious to me which factor is larger.
Anyway, the attempts to stop postal vote harvesting are way more important than requiring voter ID, in my book.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
*not meant to be glib, I too would welcome more headers with an opposing viewpoint, but I'd rather OGH and the other regulars were honest (as I assume they are) rather than set out to write a header on ten reasons Starmer is awful if they actually rate him personally. There are plenty of Tories on here, some even support the government - I'd love them to contribute headers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57723200
Plus the presenter made a factually incorrect statement in the first minute which did not help .......
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).
Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.
I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.
Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).
Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.
(Remember - England-only data).
While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.
A more unkind view might be that there is a strain of perverse victimhood amongst the supporters of a government with a majority of 80...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/covid-cases-rise-above-100000-a-day-sajid-javid-concedes-england
Unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths are going up. The link is reduced not broken. They are up significantly in the last seven days. And these are based on case numbers 2/3/4 weeks ago which were much lower.
I still support the release on 19 July. However people need to be clear that even two vaccines doesn't take all of the risk away.
How can it ever be broken? In order to be hospitalised with covid one has to first contract covid.
The "reduced not broken" stuff is innumerate bullshit.
Before Germ Theory was widely accepted in the West (relatively recently - 1880s or so, compared with 1000 years ago in Arab medicine) people fatalistically accepted infectious disease, just as one would drought or other pestilence over which they had no control, or we do the weather.
·
1h
UK, Savanta ComRes poll:
CON-ECR: 41% (-1)
LAB-S&D: 35% (+2)
LDEM-RE: 8% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 25-27 Jun
Fieldwork: 2-4 July 2021
Sample size: 2,176"
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
The message needs to get through to these pea brains that the vaccines are the silver bullet - the only one - and they don't get to have the opportunity to be jabbed and still play their totalitarian games.
First, it is extremely irrational – the children have been sat together in school for the past term.
Second, it's beyond selfish – I don't want my child to go therefore nobody's child should go.
Third, it's sanctimonious – we shouldn't be having frivolous things like discos when there's a pandemic on.