Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
What happens if they refuse a vaccination? Plenty will. Or have you redefined "everyone" to mean "not everyone but a number to be defined at a later date"?
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.
That's awful. Loving this aren't they. Arseholes.
The message needs to get through to these pea brains that the vaccines are the silver bullet - the only one - and they don't get to have the opportunity to be jabbed and still play their totalitarian games.
The totalitarians' mentality has to some degree been fostered by the propaganda disseminated by the government.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
What happens if they refuse a vaccination? Plenty will. Or have you redefined "everyone" to mean "not everyone but a number to be defined at a later date"?
Hmm. I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).
Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.
I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.
Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).
Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.
(Remember - England-only data).
While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.
Interesting. What assumptions did you make for the vaccinated being able to be infected, and being able to infect?
Oh, it was massively crude. In effect, I took the antibody levels as being a reasonable approximation for the population that would not (at scale) infect onwards.
Oh, of course we have breakthrough infections, but bearing in mind the discussion from Andrew Croxford a while back about more mildly infected people post-breakthrough infection having a lower viral load and for shorter duration (on average), and the high dispersal of the disease (more reliant on super-spreaders), I figured it'd do for a simplistic model. With a tweak, explained later.
All I did was take the antibody levels from the most recent ONS survey, set them against population levels in each bucket to get a host population to spread the virus, and diminished the host population by the expected vax rates per bucket and infection rates per bucket (guessing infections = 2 x cases and those are spread by the relative proportion of the buckets (with a wholly unscientific fiddle factor of downweighting kids by 50%).
Because the first assumption (on minimal onwards spread) was overoptimistic, I then downweighted the deduction from the host pool by half each iteration (which I recognise is inconsistent; I wanted to start from where we were and then err on the pessimistic side). And I set a maximum of 95% unavailable to spread onwards in each pool (as even if antibodies tend to 100% from vaxxing plus infections, you'd get breakthrough spread. Again, very crude fiddle factors because I figured getting too clever would be false precision, anyway).
I ended up starting with 13.3 million total in the host pool two weeks ago, dropping towards 11 million around now (as previous vaxxes kick in) and at the peak, it'd be decreased to 8.5 million to 7.5 million. Vaxxing remained the biggest contributor (over infections) even as late as early August (as they mopped up stragglers).
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
Unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths are going up. The link is reduced not broken. They are up significantly in the last seven days. And these are based on case numbers 2/3/4 weeks ago which were much lower.
I still support the release on 19 July. However people need to be clear that even two vaccines doesn't take all of the risk away.
Indeed the link will never be broken as such. Let's say that for every 100,000 cases we incurred 10 hospitalisations and 1 death. Even then the link would not be broken.
How can it ever be broken? In order to be hospitalised with covid one has to first contract covid.
The "reduced not broken" stuff is innumerate bullshit.
I think the fact that only 12% of in patients for COVID are double jabbed is a huge win. It's something that needs to be shouted from the rooftops. Adjusting for age and comorbidities of the double jabbed that's an absolutely gigantic reduction in hospitalisations.
With 25k cases per day we would be expecting around 1300 hospitalisations per day and around 10k in hospital total going by the previous wave, without taking into account that delta seems to hospitalise at a 40-60% higher rate than alpha.
Even using the 10k number as a base vs the current 2k we can calculate implied efficacy to a crude level: 1. Of the 2000 currently in hospital 12% are double jabbed which is 240 fully vaccinated and 1760 not fully vaccinated. 2. 10,000 less 1,760 is 8,240, this is the number we would have expected to be in hospital from the currently double jabbed proportion of the population if vaccines didn't exist 3. 240 is the current estimate. 4. That gives us a reduction in hospitalisation by 97% among the double jabbed which is exactly what PHE say.
The vaccines are freely available to anyone who wants one, anyone can walk up and get a Pfizer first dose tomorrow and a second one three weeks later.
Thanks for the article. I agree with it pretty much. A voting system should have no party point of view (obvs) but should do two things: encourage maximum participation while not allowing dishonesty/fraud etc.
It seems to me that from a party viewpoint it would help Lab and the centre left generally for voting to be by electronic/digital means over a fairly long period, two or three weeks, during which you could electronically register and vote at the same time.
Conversely for the centre right/Tories a system using paper and pen and post to register, registration in advance, a single day in which you had to turn up in the snow at a freezing parish hall and draw a cross for the Tory candidate with a stubby pencil on a string would probs work best.
So both of these and all points between should be options, but maybe won't be.
As to voter ID the middle ground is this: at the polling station both the polling card itself or any sensible ID (Co-Op card, pension statement whatever) should be accepted.
And for postal votes, these should only be allowed in extremis and subject to the same in person ID rules as the polling booth, with voting in person only in the presence of an election official. As if that is not possible it should not be allowed at all because it leaves the back door open having carefully locked the front door.
PS Re other's comments, you don't have to agree with Mike Smithson but his writings and this site are great stuff.
The post about Cookie's daughter's disco being cancelled because of pressure to do so from parents (who could presumably choose whether to send their children to the event) is one of the most depressing things I have read since this shitshow began.
Interesting. What makes you so depressed about it?
There's something extraordinarily bleak about the attitude of the parents.
First, it is extremely irrational – the children have been sat together in school for the past term.
Second, it's beyond selfish – I don't want my child to go therefore nobody's child should go.
Third, it's sanctimonious – we shouldn't be having frivolous things like discos when there's a pandemic on.
The Covid paraphernalia is, post 19 July, going to be even more of an identity-appendage I'm afraid. It is all about displaying their perceived moral superiority. Utterly extraordinary that those who have stood up for liberties in this crisis have been cast as morally-inferior.
Another fairly strong argument in favour of renewables replacing fossil fuels.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4 ...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
The post about Cookie's daughter's disco being cancelled because of pressure to do so from parents (who could presumably choose whether to send their children to the event) is one of the most depressing things I have read since this shitshow began.
Interesting. What makes you so depressed about it?
There's something extraordinarily bleak about the attitude of the parents.
First, it is extremely irrational – the children have been sat together in school for the past term.
Second, it's beyond selfish – I don't want my child to go therefore nobody's child should go.
Third, it's sanctimonious – we shouldn't be having frivolous things like discos when there's a pandemic on.
The Covid paraphernalia is, post 19 July, going to be even more of an identity-appendage I'm afraid. It is all about displaying their perceived moral superiority. Utterly extraordinary that those who have stood up for liberties in this crisis have been cast as morally-inferior.
Another fairly strong argument in favour of renewables replacing fossil fuels.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4 ...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
Every new house could be built with solar panels on the roof.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I'd say it's easiest in London to get double vaxxed ahead of schedule but trickier elsewhere as there isn't the choice of jab sites out here in the sticks - we got texts explicitly saying not to come for seconds.... Hoping my other half gets her call up at 8 weeks, our surgery was a bit ahead on 1st doses of the national rollout anyway.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
The post about Cookie's daughter's disco being cancelled because of pressure to do so from parents (who could presumably choose whether to send their children to the event) is one of the most depressing things I have read since this shitshow began.
Interesting. What makes you so depressed about it?
There's something extraordinarily bleak about the attitude of the parents.
First, it is extremely irrational – the children have been sat together in school for the past term.
Second, it's beyond selfish – I don't want my child to go therefore nobody's child should go.
Third, it's sanctimonious – we shouldn't be having frivolous things like discos when there's a pandemic on.
The Covid paraphernalia is, post 19 July, going to be even more of an identity-appendage I'm afraid. It is all about displaying their perceived moral superiority. Utterly extraordinary that those who have stood up for liberties in this crisis have been cast as morally-inferior.
Tell me about it
As long as you stick to standing up for liberties and not straying into conspiracy stuff or Trumpism I'm with you.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Sounds like a good idea, but before a decision is made there is just one more thing.......
+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.
I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?
Dutch Antilles and Dutch East Indies. All rather nice I believe.
Not Spain and Portugal? Because whenever I go there, there seems to be a lot of Dutch. You can normally spot them, they are much taller than everybody else and speak better English than the Brits.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I'd say it's easiest in London to get double vaxxed ahead of schedule but trickier elsewhere as there isn't the choice of jab sites out here in the sticks - we got texts explicitly saying not to come for seconds.... Hoping my other half gets her call up at 8 weeks, our surgery was a bit ahead on 1st doses of the national rollout anyway.
In London I got a text last week saying do not turn up to a walk in before 11 weeks as you will be turned away.
Another fairly strong argument in favour of renewables replacing fossil fuels.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4 ...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
Every new house could be built with solar panels on the roof.
As long as their owned by the homeowner and not ‘rent a roof’.
Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics
He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"
Lumme
Does he note any major differences in symptoms?
Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example
Last time he was rough for 48 hours tops - this time its longer than that - he seemed a bit better yesterday but not so good today.
Temperature is better - 37.1 earlier - sats at 94 last reading
He says he has only lost his sense of taste today
He is young but has some severe health issues which are a concern
The viral phase either gets better in a week, or switches to the more dangerous inflammatory phase, so if worsening then it does need to be taken very seriously. May well need in person assessment.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I think his point was that there's a difference between being unvaccinated, and a 'refuser'.
On the latter point, the study I posted on the last thread shoots down one of the last anti-vax arguments: that natural infection is less likely to produce mutations than the evolutionary pressure of vaccination.
It's quite clear that the government has quietly abandoned its "data not dates" mantra that underpinned the roadmap. Now that may be the right decision, but with cases, hospitalisations and deaths all rising it's a bit of a gamble - especially when there is evidence that although the vaccines are great, the virus is still breaking through in a small minority of cases. Surely everybody would agree that ideally we would be loosening restrictions when all the key metrics were declining rather than rising? But it was not to be, largely for political reasons.
If the gamble backfires, I suspect there are two points on which the government will get flak: 1) slowness to quarantine travellers from India a couple of months ago; 2) football. I can't help but think that much of the current spread is related to the mad scenes surrounding the Euros in pubs, houses and elsewhere.
+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.
I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?
Dutch Antilles and Dutch East Indies. All rather nice I believe.
Not Spain and Portugal? Because whenever I go there, there seems to be a lot of Dutch.
Yea, they go there too. They are a bit like us Brits, ours and their weather is generally crap and we both have no mountains for skiing (yes, I know Scotland lol), so an overseas trip is pretty much essential
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
Pretty sure it was a joke. (Though I kind of like the idea... )
+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.
I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?
Dutch Antilles and Dutch East Indies. All rather nice I believe.
Not Spain and Portugal? Because whenever I go there, there seems to be a lot of Dutch. You can normally spot them, they are much taller than everybody else and speak better English than the Brits.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
Pretty sure it was a joke. (Though I kind of like the idea... )
Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless
And every SKS header is always positive. Everytime SKS has a decent PMQs there is a thread header about it.
If you don't like it here then there are other sites.
It is a good article which has obviously touched a nerve with some. I wonder if the vote ID stuff will go ahead once this becomes more common knowledge.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Sounds like a good idea, but before a decision is made there is just one more thing.......
Hmm. I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).
Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.
I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.
Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).
Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.
(Remember - England-only data).
While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.
Interesting. What assumptions did you make for the vaccinated being able to be infected, and being able to infect?
Oh, it was massively crude. In effect, I took the antibody levels as being a reasonable approximation for the population that would not (at scale) infect onwards.
Oh, of course we have breakthrough infections, but bearing in mind the discussion from Andrew Croxford a while back about more mildly infected people post-breakthrough infection having a lower viral load and for shorter duration (on average), and the high dispersal of the disease (more reliant on super-spreaders), I figured it'd do for a simplistic model. With a tweak, explained later.
All I did was take the antibody levels from the most recent ONS survey, set them against population levels in each bucket to get a host population to spread the virus, and diminished the host population by the expected vax rates per bucket and infection rates per bucket (guessing infections = 2 x cases and those are spread by the relative proportion of the buckets (with a wholly unscientific fiddle factor of downweighting kids by 50%).
Because the first assumption (on minimal onwards spread) was overoptimistic, I then downweighted the deduction from the host pool by half each iteration (which I recognise is inconsistent; I wanted to start from where we were and then err on the pessimistic side). And I set a maximum of 95% unavailable to spread onwards in each pool (as even if antibodies tend to 100% from vaxxing plus infections, you'd get breakthrough spread. Again, very crude fiddle factors because I figured getting too clever would be false precision, anyway).
I ended up starting with 13.3 million total in the host pool two weeks ago, dropping towards 11 million around now (as previous vaxxes kick in) and at the peak, it'd be decreased to 8.5 million to 7.5 million. Vaxxing remained the biggest contributor (over infections) even as late as early August (as they mopped up stragglers).
It's quite clear that the government has quietly abandoned its "data not dates" mantra that underpinned the roadmap. Now that may be the right decision, but with cases, hospitalisations and deaths all rising it's a bit of a gamble - especially when there is evidence that although the vaccines are great, the virus is still breaking through in a small minority of cases. Surely everybody would agree that ideally we would be loosening restrictions when all the key metrics were declining rather than rising? But it was not to be, largely for political reasons.
If the gamble backfires, I suspect there are two points on which the government will get flak: 1) slowness to quarantine travellers from India a couple of months ago; 2) football. I can't help but think that much of the current spread is related to the mad scenes surrounding the Euros in pubs, houses and elsewhere.
To be fair the government did their level best to unsettle and aggravate the England team at the start of the tournament to avoid such scenes.
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.
I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?
Dutch Antilles and Dutch East Indies. All rather nice I believe.
Not Spain and Portugal? Because whenever I go there, there seems to be a lot of Dutch. You can normally spot them, they are much taller than everybody else and speak better English than the Brits.
France, in caravans.
Reading Joe Saward's green book diary he thinks it's every F1 race in Europe this year...
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
I bet Lt. Columbo said or did something that someone could take exception to, if you searched hard enough. He probably wasn't a supporter of Gender Self I/D or same sex marriage, for instance.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I'd say it's easiest in London to get double vaxxed ahead of schedule but trickier elsewhere as there isn't the choice of jab sites out here in the sticks - we got texts explicitly saying not to come for seconds.... Hoping my other half gets her call up at 8 weeks, our surgery was a bit ahead on 1st doses of the national rollout anyway.
In London I got a text last week saying do not turn up to a walk in before 11 weeks as you will be turned away.
Interesting, the getjabbed sub-reddit has a lot on this and most London walk-ins seem to have changed their policy to 8 weeks minimum, but I haven't seen any suggestion of 11. Also you should be able to rebook your second jab for 8 weeks through the national booking system regardless.
Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics
He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"
Lumme
Does he note any major differences in symptoms?
Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example
Last time he was rough for 48 hours tops - this time its longer than that - he seemed a bit better yesterday but not so good today.
Temperature is better - 37.1 earlier - sats at 94 last reading
He says he has only lost his sense of taste today
He is young but has some severe health issues which are a concern
The viral phase either gets better in a week, or switches to the more dangerous inflammatory phase, so if worsening then it does need to be taken very seriously. May well need in person assessment.
Thanks Foxy - I was really worried when his sats were below 90 - I'm happier that he is in touch regularly with NHS - although all on phone.
As an aside - track and trace have been active in checking that he has stayed at home - not that he is even thinking of going out right now
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
Pretty sure it was a joke. (Though I kind of like the idea... )
How sure? How can you tell these days?
...With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue.. The practicality of the idea is not something which would escape the analytical skills of a true Columbo enthusiast.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
You obviously missed the article in the Washington Post a few days about about how the Statue of Liberty is racist etc etc etc...a symbol of everything that isn't modern America, as it doesn't properly represent the current demographics of the US. In fact it turns its back on them.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
Pretty sure it was a joke. (Though I kind of like the idea... )
How sure? How can you tell these days?
...With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue.. The practicality of the idea is not something which would escape the analytical skills of a true Columbo enthusiast.
I'm famously gullible sometimes (often). My wife says it's endearing.
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
+2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.
I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?
Dutch Antilles and Dutch East Indies. All rather nice I believe.
Not Spain and Portugal? Because whenever I go there, there seems to be a lot of Dutch.
Yea, they go there too. They are a bit like us Brits, ours and their weather is generally crap and we both have no mountains for skiing (yes, I know Scotland lol), so an overseas trip is pretty much essential
The Dutch also love caravanning. There's a joke about Dutch neighbours driving to Italy and parking up next to each other, before coming back and saying, "Lovely place, and such friendly people!"
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
Another fairly strong argument in favour of renewables replacing fossil fuels.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4 ...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
Every new house could be built with solar panels on the roof.
As long as their owned by the homeowner and not ‘rent a roof’.
I'm actually looking to get a new roof next year - any mileage in me looking to put solar panels on it? It's not south facing unfortunately - just a little bit south of west, I'd say.
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
Another fairly strong argument in favour of renewables replacing fossil fuels.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4 ...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
Every new house could be built with solar panels on the roof.
As long as their owned by the homeowner and not ‘rent a roof’.
I'm actually looking to get a new roof next year - any mileage in me looking to put solar panels on it? It's not south facing unfortunately - just a little bit south of west, I'd say.
Depends on how you’re paying for them.
If you have to borrow, no.
If you have the money sitting in the bank, and it would cover most of your electricity needs, probably.
At least with them facing west they would be getting sunlight in the evening when you need it not the early morning when you don’t.
Another fairly strong argument in favour of renewables replacing fossil fuels.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4 ...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
Every new house could be built with solar panels on the roof.
As long as their owned by the homeowner and not ‘rent a roof’.
I'm actually looking to get a new roof next year - any mileage in me looking to put solar panels on it? It's not south facing unfortunately - just a little bit south of west, I'd say.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
But whatever it is, it's not indefinite and every day we get closer to it. Vaccine refusers will be around 5m in total. The number of first doses is now demand limited, it has been for the last couple of weeks.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
Yes but that suggests that it is a choice, while more likely to be both. The massive backlogs are because of the pandemic, not the lockdown.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
I bet Lt. Columbo said or did something that someone could take exception to, if you searched hard enough. He probably wasn't a supporter of Gender Self I/D or same sex marriage, for instance.
Well for starters he is a middle aged straight white man, whose character was written by two middle aged straight white men....
That is surely too problematic for modern times.
I am fairly certain what little we learn about his wife, she is very much the stay at home traditional housewife, the "little lady indoors" type role. That also is far too sexist and gender stereotyped these days.
Rubbish weather in SW London again today. So far this summer is ranking amongst the worst I've ever seen in the UK - which is bad luck given the current circumstanes. Could really have done with one like 2018.
Lovely on the Isle of Wight. The rain came last night but then blew away.
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
The difference between double glazing salesmen and CDO salesmen is that when they have come and gone, with the double glazing salesman you have double glazing. It may be over priced and a bit shitty..
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
Its a very macho, sexist industry, double glazing and conservatory construction.....I mean, the glass ceilings...
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Well that would be sadder, but manageable. My worry is that we'll have 15 pre-teen girls here, one will subsequently test positive, and it'll be one whose parents are the sort to Do The Right Thing and all fifteen girls will then have to do another ten days house arrest.
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
Its a very macho, sexist industry, double glazing and conservatory construction.....I mean, the glass ceilings...
Rubbish weather in SW London again today. So far this summer is ranking amongst the worst I've ever seen in the UK - which is bad luck given the current circumstanes. Could really have done with one like 2018.
Lovely on the Isle of Wight. The rain came last night but then blew away.
We're getting alternate months. April, dry as a bone. May, wet as an otter's pocket. June, like the Atacama desert, only drier. July, like Bangkok in monsoon season. Fingers crossed for August.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
I bet Lt. Columbo said or did something that someone could take exception to, if you searched hard enough. He probably wasn't a supporter of Gender Self I/D or same sex marriage, for instance.
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Well that would be sadder, but manageable. My worry is that we'll have 15 pre-teen girls here, one will subsequently test positive, and it'll be one whose parents are the sort to Do The Right Thing and all fifteen girls will then have to do another ten days house arrest.
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
Surely, if you watch a collection of old movies about British POWs escaping, you'll get an idea?
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
Its a very macho, sexist industry, double glazing and conservatory construction.....I mean, the glass ceilings...
But they take their mottoes from the same Beatles song.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo ...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Honestly. "Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations" - how can people be so idiotic to think that retaining a statue seeks to instill centuries-old behaviour on future generations. These people can't be stupid - just mischief-making surely?
I bet Lt. Columbo said or did something that someone could take exception to, if you searched hard enough. He probably wasn't a supporter of Gender Self I/D or same sex marriage, for instance.
The only clue I can find to his politics is his lack of enthusiasm for carrying a gun.
Arhhhh the days when tv shows didn't have politics rammed into them. The character was just the character, not also there artificially inserting some political agenda (or advertising some crap via product placement every 5 mins).
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
Yes but that suggests that it is a choice, while more likely to be both. The massive backlogs are because of the pandemic, not the lockdown.
On cancer there will surely be many who are not attending screenings for fear of covid where the risks suggest that is a complete overreaction?
Also we could structure society primarily around reducing cancer deaths, and impose restrictions on the economy and people to help reduce them. We don't do this, not because cancer patients don't matter, but because it would be disproportionate to the risk. The same should now apply for covid patients, yes they matter, but so does everyone else.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
Yes but that suggests that it is a choice, while more likely to be both. The massive backlogs are because of the pandemic, not the lockdown.
What's the latest word on ending social distancing in hospitals? Going on the 19th like the rest of the country? Fingers crossed.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
But whatever it is, it's not indefinite and every day we get closer to it. Vaccine refusers will be around 5m in total. The number of first doses is now demand limited, it has been for the last couple of weeks.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
I find it rather interesting that no scientist with domain knowledge has started shouting yet. Even iSAGE has been a bit of wet blanket on this - almost as if they are going through the motions.....
Interviewer : "So what is your opinion?"
iSager : {Shuffles cue cards} "Johnson, liar, murder, the rain in Spain - sorry wrong card, zero COVID....." {falls asleep}
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
Yes but that suggests that it is a choice, while more likely to be both. The massive backlogs are because of the pandemic, not the lockdown.
What's the latest word on ending social distancing in hospitals? Going on the 19th like the rest of the country? Fingers crossed.
No change in hospitals planned, I have specifically asked management.
At first glance, I thought this might be an argument in favour of Boris, but on a closer look...
Bullshit Ability as an Honest Signal of Intelligence https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14747049211000317 Navigating social systems efficiently is critical to our species. Humans appear endowed with a cognitive system that has formed to meet the unique challenges that emerge for highly social species. Bullshitting, communication characterised by an intent to be convincing or impressive without concern for truth, is ubiquitous within human societies. Across two studies (N = 1,017), we assess participants’ ability to produce satisfying and seemingly accurate bullshit as an honest signal of their intelligence. We find that bullshit ability is associated with an individual’s intelligence and individuals capable of producing more satisfying bullshit are judged by second-hand observers to be more intelligent. We interpret these results as adding evidence for intelligence being geared towards the navigation of social systems. The ability to produce satisfying bullshit may serve to assist individuals in negotiating their social world, both as an energetically efficient strategy for impressing others and as an honest signal of intelligence.,/i>
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
Its a very macho, sexist industry, double glazing and conservatory construction.....I mean, the glass ceilings...
They can be a right pane.
I would louver to get a pun in but feel that I am working blind.
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Well that would be sadder, but manageable. My worry is that we'll have 15 pre-teen girls here, one will subsequently test positive, and it'll be one whose parents are the sort to Do The Right Thing and all fifteen girls will then have to do another ten days house arrest.
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
I believe I have previously mentioned my theory that if Operation Sealion had worked,
1/3rd of the UK would have fought to the death 1/3rd wouldn't have noticed and 1/3rd would have queued round the block to join up, get an arm band and boss people about - on behalf of the Germans....
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Well that would be sadder, but manageable. My worry is that we'll have 15 pre-teen girls here, one will subsequently test positive, and it'll be one whose parents are the sort to Do The Right Thing and all fifteen girls will then have to do another ten days house arrest.
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
Just as well some PB-ers aren't among the parents. They would shop you as soon as look at you.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
But whatever it is, it's not indefinite and every day we get closer to it. Vaccine refusers will be around 5m in total. The number of first doses is now demand limited, it has been for the last couple of weeks.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
I find it rather interesting that no scientist with domain knowledge has started shouting yet. Even iSAGE has been a bit of wet blanket on this - almost as if they are going through the motions.....
Interviewer : "So what is your opinion?"
iSager : {Shuffles cue cards} "Johnson, liar, murder, the rain in Spain - sorry wrong card, zero COVID....." {falls asleep}
Because the alternative is to keep the measures until April. None of the zero COVID nutters want to say it out loud. As you can see with my conversation. I keep asking and keep getting mealy mouthed "wait for x" type of rubbish because they all know that they can't say the alternative is to wait for April 2022 in July 2021. It's ridiculous.
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Well that would be sadder, but manageable. My worry is that we'll have 15 pre-teen girls here, one will subsequently test positive, and it'll be one whose parents are the sort to Do The Right Thing and all fifteen girls will then have to do another ten days house arrest.
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
Just as well some PB-ers aren't among the parents. They would shop you as soon as look at you.
How many talents of silver is Sulla offering this week? Asking for a friend.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
Yes but that suggests that it is a choice, while more likely to be both. The massive backlogs are because of the pandemic, not the lockdown.
What's the latest word on ending social distancing in hospitals? Going on the 19th like the rest of the country? Fingers crossed.
No change in hospitals planned, I have specifically asked management.
Seems like a really odd decision, maybe something Javid will address in the next few days. At least you've got rid of Hancock.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
But whatever it is, it's not indefinite and every day we get closer to it. Vaccine refusers will be around 5m in total. The number of first doses is now demand limited, it has been for the last couple of weeks.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
Well I would guess try to slow transmission through mask wearing (most obviously in schools, public transport etc.), properly fund isolation, speed up vaccination by making it more convenient and maybe even paying people, put money into local public health teams... nothing particularly revolutionary to be honest!
But there's no denying this should have been done earlier. The govt have obviously let this get out of control again, and are going to get a whole bunch of people infected before they had full vaccine protection rather than afterwards.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
But whatever it is, it's not indefinite and every day we get closer to it. Vaccine refusers will be around 5m in total. The number of first doses is now demand limited, it has been for the last couple of weeks.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
Well I would guess try to slow transmission through mask wearing (most obviously in schools, public transport etc.), properly fund isolation, speed up vaccination by making it more convenient and maybe even paying people, put money into local public health teams... nothing particularly revolutionary to be honest!
But there's no denying this should have been done earlier. The govt have obviously let this get out of control again, and are going to get a whole bunch of people infected before they had full vaccine protection rather than afterwards.
Make vaccination more convenient....how much more convenient than now can it be? There are 1000s and 1000s of centres throughout the country, open 8am to 8pm, 7 days a week. There is online booking, phone booking, GP led, On top of there, there are walk up no question centres mobile vans, weekly mass jabathons. All free of charge.
@MaxPB - I think vaccine refusers could well be less than 5 million. There are - give or take - 58 million adults in the UK.
5 million refuseniks is a 92% uptake of adults. Iceland is at 89% today and first jabs don't appear to have slowed down. If vaccination is a requirement for travel, then we might well end up at 95% - in which case it's only about 3 million refuseniks.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?
When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
Yes but that suggests that it is a choice, while more likely to be both. The massive backlogs are because of the pandemic, not the lockdown.
What's the latest word on ending social distancing in hospitals? Going on the 19th like the rest of the country? Fingers crossed.
No change in hospitals planned, I have specifically asked management.
Seems like a really odd decision, maybe something Javid will address in the next few days. At least you've got rid of Hancock.
Inevitable in medical settings. Who in charge is going to take a risk?
My concern is more with the non-medical public sector. It's all very well saying that private business can make their own rules* on this but I'd like to see the government extending freedom day to non-medical public services. Bet they won't though.
*Johnson said yesterday that businesses can apply rules, e.g. mask continuance on their premises, if they choose. But he also said that individuals are entitled to choose not to wear masks. Stormy times ahead.
Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.
Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting. England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?
The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.
But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
A SAGE member said it this morning that 88% of people currently in hospital in England are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Currently the latter group are just in a waiting period of getting their second dose and most of them could probably walk up and get one if they tried after 3/4 weeks.
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
I keep trying to tell you, the partially protected are a massive chunk of population. Vaccine refusers are a small, small proportion.
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
But whatever it is, it's not indefinite and every day we get closer to it. Vaccine refusers will be around 5m in total. The number of first doses is now demand limited, it has been for the last couple of weeks.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
Well I would guess try to slow transmission through mask wearing (most obviously in schools, public transport etc.), properly fund isolation, speed up vaccination by making it more convenient and maybe even paying people, put money into local public health teams... nothing particularly revolutionary to be honest!
But there's no denying this should have been done earlier. The govt have obviously let this get out of control again, and are going to get a whole bunch of people infected before they had full vaccine protection rather than afterwards.
But you would proceed with unlockdown with some minor mask wearing rules (basically what I'm getting) on July 19th? Fair enough, I misjudged.
I think on vaccines, the biggest stumbling block at the moment is supply of Pfizer and also the unnecessary 8 week gap for under 40s, I think they just need to get on with it and reduce that to 4 weeks now. We're very obviously demand limited on first doses but AIUI there is now a stockpile of Moderna building up. With Pfizer it should just been two weeks because the new order has commenced but it was poor planning.
I agree that this has been a poorly managed and I've definitely criticised the government enough on that. I don't see any alternative option to unlockdown on the 19th though.
Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents. Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.
Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.
I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
Eh ? Surely the parents who are worried about Covid won't let their kids attend your party ? It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
Well that would be sadder, but manageable. My worry is that we'll have 15 pre-teen girls here, one will subsequently test positive, and it'll be one whose parents are the sort to Do The Right Thing and all fifteen girls will then have to do another ten days house arrest.
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
I believe I have previously mentioned my theory that if Operation Sealion had worked,
1/3rd of the UK would have fought to the death 1/3rd wouldn't have noticed and 1/3rd would have queued round the block to join up, get an arm band and boss people about - on behalf of the Germans....
I'm most interested in the middle third, to be honest. I think you'reexactly right. "No, no, I don't watch the news..."
@MaxPB - I think vaccine refusers could well be less than 5 million. There are - give or take - 58 million adults in the UK.
5 million refuseniks is a 92% uptake of adults. Iceland is at 89% today and first jabs don't appear to have slowed down. If vaccination is a requirement for travel, then we might well end up at 95% - in which case it's only about 3 million refuseniks.
@MaxPB - I think vaccine refusers could well be less than 5 million. There are - give or take - 58 million adults in the UK.
5 million refuseniks is a 92% uptake of adults. Iceland is at 89% today and first jabs don't appear to have slowed down. If vaccination is a requirement for travel, then we might well end up at 95% - in which case it's only about 3 million refuseniks.
Wales has crawled to just below 90% - they will probably hit that in a week or so. But that is it for Wales, I think....
I think that we would be lucky to get that high for the UK as a whole...
I think it is time we all looked to Malta for Covid vaccination success. They have achieved the impossible.
According to their own government website, they are the only country where the number of people who are fully vaccinated (72.5%) exceeds the number who have received at least one dose (72.1%).
Have I read it right that we're now at the point where about 1.5% of cases results in a hospital admission?
So 1500 admissions if Javid is right about us having 100 000 cases per day in a few weeks.
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
The proportion keeps falling, however. Andy Cooke estimates a peak of 850 a day in England.
Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts.
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
"it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions"
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
The sort of people that some invest their life savings with never fails to make me shudder. Especially in the 90s. Double glazing salesman one week, financial adviser the next.
How? Surely the most important thing about double glazing sales is that you see right through them.
Its a very macho, sexist industry, double glazing and conservatory construction.....I mean, the glass ceilings...
They can be a right pane.
I would louver to get a pun in but feel that I am working blind.
Comments
It's a bit different but I had a few friends not wanting to attend my 40th due to fear of the 'rona
In effect, I took the antibody levels as being a reasonable approximation for the population that would not (at scale) infect onwards.
Oh, of course we have breakthrough infections, but bearing in mind the discussion from Andrew Croxford a while back about more mildly infected people post-breakthrough infection having a lower viral load and for shorter duration (on average), and the high dispersal of the disease (more reliant on super-spreaders), I figured it'd do for a simplistic model. With a tweak, explained later.
All I did was take the antibody levels from the most recent ONS survey, set them against population levels in each bucket to get a host population to spread the virus, and diminished the host population by the expected vax rates per bucket and infection rates per bucket (guessing infections = 2 x cases and those are spread by the relative proportion of the buckets (with a wholly unscientific fiddle factor of downweighting kids by 50%).
Because the first assumption (on minimal onwards spread) was overoptimistic, I then downweighted the deduction from the host pool by half each iteration (which I recognise is inconsistent; I wanted to start from where we were and then err on the pessimistic side). And I set a maximum of 95% unavailable to spread onwards in each pool (as even if antibodies tend to 100% from vaxxing plus infections, you'd get breakthrough spread. Again, very crude fiddle factors because I figured getting too clever would be false precision, anyway).
I ended up starting with 13.3 million total in the host pool two weeks ago, dropping towards 11 million around now (as previous vaxxes kick in) and at the peak, it'd be decreased to 8.5 million to 7.5 million. Vaxxing remained the biggest contributor (over infections) even as late as early August (as they mopped up stragglers).
With 25k cases per day we would be expecting around 1300 hospitalisations per day and around 10k in hospital total going by the previous wave, without taking into account that delta seems to hospitalise at a 40-60% higher rate than alpha.
Even using the 10k number as a base vs the current 2k we can calculate implied efficacy to a crude level:
1. Of the 2000 currently in hospital 12% are double jabbed which is 240 fully vaccinated and 1760 not fully vaccinated.
2. 10,000 less 1,760 is 8,240, this is the number we would have expected to be in hospital from the currently double jabbed proportion of the population if vaccines didn't exist
3. 240 is the current estimate.
4. That gives us a reduction in hospitalisation by 97% among the double jabbed which is exactly what PHE say.
The vaccines are freely available to anyone who wants one, anyone can walk up and get a Pfizer first dose tomorrow and a second one three weeks later.
It seems to me that from a party viewpoint it would help Lab and the centre left generally for voting to be by electronic/digital means over a fairly long period, two or three weeks, during which you could electronically register and vote at the same time.
Conversely for the centre right/Tories a system using paper and pen and post to register, registration in advance, a single day in which you had to turn up in the snow at a freezing parish hall and draw a cross for the Tory candidate with a stubby pencil on a string would probs work best.
So both of these and all points between should be options, but maybe won't be.
As to voter ID the middle ground is this: at the polling station both the polling card itself or any sensible ID (Co-Op card, pension statement whatever) should be accepted.
And for postal votes, these should only be allowed in extremis and subject to the same in person ID rules as the polling booth, with voting in person only in the presence of an election official. As if that is not possible it should not be allowed at all because it leaves the back door open having carefully locked the front door.
PS Re other's comments, you don't have to agree with Mike Smithson but his writings and this site are great stuff.
Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4
...A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period....
How do you vaccinate everyone? Send in the army China style, hold them down and jab them, then do it again three weeks later?
Just as well I am off for a fortnight in August...
Hoping my other half gets her call up at 8 weeks, our surgery was a bit ahead on 1st doses of the national rollout anyway.
Movement grows to replace statues of Columbus with ones dedicated to a more respected figure—TV detective Lieutenant Columbo
https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/movement-grows-to-replace-statues-of-columbus-with-ones-dedicated-to-a-more-respected-figure-tv-detective-lieutenant-columbo
...“Through a better understanding of history, Christopher Columbus no longer represents the values we wish to instill on future generations, yet monuments of this controversial figure are still in place throughout the country,” the organiser Ryan Toohey says. “We should replace the Columbus statue in Detroit with that of someone we can all admire; someone who always pursued truth and justice—Columbo. With only slight modifications to the plaque and the addition of a frumpy coat to the original statue, we can transform a symbol of hate into a beacon of hope.”...
Semple defined full protection as 4 weeks from vaccine.
The week on week cases are lower for a couple of days running than previous.
On the latter point, the study I posted on the last thread shoots down one of the last anti-vax arguments: that natural infection is less likely to produce mutations than the evolutionary pressure of vaccination.
COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1
If the gamble backfires, I suspect there are two points on which the government will get flak:
1) slowness to quarantine travellers from India a couple of months ago;
2) football. I can't help but think that much of the current spread is related to the mad scenes surrounding the Euros in pubs, houses and elsewhere.
(Though I kind of like the idea...
(NB: If it proves accurate, I must remember to come back and delete this comment and claim perfect foresight)
As an aside - track and trace have been active in checking that he has stayed at home - not that he is even thinking of going out right now
The practicality of the idea is not something which would escape the analytical skills of a true Columbo enthusiast.
Have you ever considered a career as a Quant? I know people who will invest all the live savings of people they don't know on that kind of modelling.....
If you have to borrow, no.
If you have the money sitting in the bank, and it would cover most of your electricity needs, probably.
At least with them facing west they would be getting sunlight in the evening when you need it not the early morning when you don’t.
All of the scientists are fairly united that unlockdown in autumn would be a disaster as the exit wave would be horrific for the NHS combined with what is likely to be a pretty bad flu season as we don't know what to put in the jab this year.
So once again, I'm asking the question, what are you proposing we do?
That is surely too problematic for modern times.
I am fairly certain what little we learn about his wife, she is very much the stay at home traditional housewife, the "little lady indoors" type role. That also is far too sexist and gender stereotyped these days.
Where as with CDO.....
It's a small risk. I reckon three quarters of the parents would quietly pretend their child hadn't been there at all. But I reckon at least a quarter would dutifully dob everyone else in.
FWIW, Stephen Fry is a fan:
https://crimefictionlover.com/2018/10/subversiveness-and-curiosity-what-makes-columbo-the-greatest-tv-detective/
The only clue I can find to his politics is his lack of enthusiasm for carrying a gun.
Double glazing: ‘Above us only sky.’
Dodgy FA: ‘Imagine no possessions.’
Also we could structure society primarily around reducing cancer deaths, and impose restrictions on the economy and people to help reduce them. We don't do this, not because cancer patients don't matter, but because it would be disproportionate to the risk. The same should now apply for covid patients, yes they matter, but so does everyone else.
Interviewer : "So what is your opinion?"
iSager : {Shuffles cue cards} "Johnson, liar, murder, the rain in Spain - sorry wrong card, zero COVID....." {falls asleep}
Bullshit Ability as an Honest Signal of Intelligence
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14747049211000317
Navigating social systems efficiently is critical to our species. Humans appear endowed with a cognitive system that has formed to meet the unique challenges that emerge for highly social species. Bullshitting, communication characterised by an intent to be convincing or impressive without concern for truth, is ubiquitous within human societies. Across two studies (N = 1,017), we assess participants’ ability to produce satisfying and seemingly accurate bullshit as an honest signal of their intelligence. We find that bullshit ability is associated with an individual’s intelligence and individuals capable of producing more satisfying bullshit are judged by second-hand observers to be more intelligent. We interpret these results as adding evidence for intelligence being geared towards the navigation of social systems. The ability to produce satisfying bullshit may serve to assist individuals in negotiating their social world, both as an energetically efficient strategy for impressing others and as an honest signal of intelligence.,/i>
1/3rd of the UK would have fought to the death
1/3rd wouldn't have noticed and
1/3rd would have queued round the block to join up, get an arm band and boss people about - on behalf of the Germans....
But there's no denying this should have been done earlier. The govt have obviously let this get out of control again, and are going to get a whole bunch of people infected before they had full vaccine protection rather than afterwards.
What specific extra measures could they do?
5 million refuseniks is a 92% uptake of adults. Iceland is at 89% today and first jabs don't appear to have slowed down. If vaccination is a requirement for travel, then we might well end up at 95% - in which case it's only about 3 million refuseniks.
My concern is more with the non-medical public sector. It's all very well saying that private business can make their own rules* on this but I'd like to see the government extending freedom day to non-medical public services. Bet they won't though.
*Johnson said yesterday that businesses can apply rules, e.g. mask continuance on their premises, if they choose. But he also said that individuals are entitled to choose not to wear masks. Stormy times ahead.
I think on vaccines, the biggest stumbling block at the moment is supply of Pfizer and also the unnecessary 8 week gap for under 40s, I think they just need to get on with it and reduce that to 4 weeks now. We're very obviously demand limited on first doses but AIUI there is now a stockpile of Moderna building up. With Pfizer it should just been two weeks because the new order has commenced but it was poor planning.
I agree that this has been a poorly managed and I've definitely criticised the government enough on that. I don't see any alternative option to unlockdown on the 19th though.
I think that we would be lucky to get that high for the UK as a whole...
According to their own government website, they are the only country where the number of people who are fully vaccinated (72.5%) exceeds the number who have received at least one dose (72.1%).
Edit to add: the data is easier to see on the EU page - https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#national-ref-tab