Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Why the LDs and LAB could be the main beneficiaries of compulsory voter ID – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2021 in General
imageWhy the LDs and LAB could be the main beneficiaries of compulsory voter ID – politicalbetting.com

The above chart by Deltapoll should be a warning to Mr. Johnson about the dangers to his party of pressing forward with voter ID. It was published 2 years ago and shows the constituency relationship between having no passport and voting leave. As can be seen there is a correlation – the smaller the proportion with passports in a constituency the greater the chance it voted Leave.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    First perhaps. Passports are very different from ID cards.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    28k....37....406
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    First perhaps. Passports are very different from ID cards.

    They are a special case of ID cards..
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.

    Or disposable income creates options for luxuries such as ideals.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.

    for those who can afford it.

    For many who voted leave, the whole idea of working and living in Europe, so beloved of remainers, was meaningless. They could not afford a week in Benidorm, let alone a home in Provence.

    That is why you lost.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Sorry to hear that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Lumme

    Does he note any major differences in symptoms?

    Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Bugger.

    Is it prying to ask, why antibiotics?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    isam said:

    Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless

    Blimey, even when Mike tries to give the government helpful advice, you complain !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Manx Missile going for another stage win today.....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless

    Blimey, even when Mike tries to give the government helpful advice, you complain !
    Ha not complaining, just wondered if it was always this way
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Remember to take your pisspot to the polling station.

    (I blame auto-correct)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    It's america, but I'm surprised the ratio in history is so high (albeit less than the average).

    Economics has this reputation in academia of being a really right-wing field because there’s only a 5 to 1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans on the faculty instead of 17:1 in history or 44:1 in sociology.


    https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1412011840956141570
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    We need a second comparison....percentage of potential electorate in those constituencies who actually vote now.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    isam said:

    Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless

    And every SKS header is always positive.
    Everytime SKS has a decent PMQs there is a thread header about it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    IshmaelZ said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Bugger.

    Is it prying to ask, why antibiotics?
    The docs told him "to prevent further infection"

    I'm not sure that means Covid, as that is a virus - but more that he is chesty and wheezy

    His sats were poor the other day, but he promises me they are improved. Although still lower than should be and he assures me docs are aware.

    He has certain OCD behaviours he engages in, he hasn't even bothered with those last couple of days which tells me he is rough tbh
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    edited July 2021
    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Nigelb said:
    Hardly surprising given how far ahead Rimac is with electric drives compared to absolutely everyone else...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415
    Cookie said:

    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Interesting correlation, and not surprising. Travel opens the mind might be the conclusion.

    for those who can afford it.

    For many who voted leave, the whole idea of working and living in Europe, so beloved of remainers, was meaningless. They could not afford a week in Benidorm, let alone a home in Provence.

    That is why you lost.
    "It is true, as was said by a gentleman near me, the meanest man in England ought to have [a voice in the election of the government he lives under—but only if he has some local interest]. I say this: that those that have the meanest local interest—that man that hath but forty shillings a year, he hath as great voice in the election of a knight for the shire as he that hath ten thousand a year, or more if he had never so much; and therefore there is that regard had to it."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Leon said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Lumme

    Does he note any major differences in symptoms?

    Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example
    Last time he was rough for 48 hours tops - this time its longer than that - he seemed a bit better yesterday but not so good today.

    Temperature is better - 37.1 earlier - sats at 94 last reading

    He says he has only lost his sense of taste today

    He is young but has some severe health issues which are a concern
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    28k....37....406

    400 admissions seems pretty bad.

    That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415

    28k....37....406

    400 admissions seems pretty bad.

    That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.
    So about 10 per county ? Hardly a need to lockdown
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Looks like the quarter final has hit the COVID case numbers today and will be very high tomorrow. 2k PCR positives on Monday by specimen date is very high for the previous day. I'm less bothered by LFT positives than most so even at 7k it's still a big who cares, but I did expect it to come in significantly higher for Monday as people do them before going back to work etc...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    You can get a secondary, bacterial infection, as a result of a nasty, coughing, flu type virus....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Whoever benefits, intentionally making voting more difficult is wrong, unless there is a compelling and objective reason to do so.

    In any case I think the real target of the disenfranchisement is ethnic minorities, not poor whites, although no-one will say so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    Best of wishes to your son.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    28k....37....406

    400 admissions seems pretty bad.

    That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.
    So about 10 per county ? Hardly a need to lockdown
    Nearly two-thirds of a single admission per constituency.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    Sorry, my comment was way too glib, given your son's predicament.

    Yes, secondary bacterial infections are a worry with many viral respiratory infections. So it may be his doctor is ordering him to take the antibiotics prophylactically.

    https://pneumonia.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41479-021-00083-w
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    edited July 2021

    Cookie said:

    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
    I think you'd struggle to find anybody who doesn't want Covid to end. Maybe those who are making a lot of money out of it, but that's about it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,719
    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    Potential bacterial chest infection? Mild asthmatics?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited July 2021
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Lumme

    Does he note any major differences in symptoms?

    Sympathies to both of them; they are an interesting example
    Last time he was rough for 48 hours tops - this time its longer than that - he seemed a bit better yesterday but not so good today.

    Temperature is better - 37.1 earlier - sats at 94 last reading

    He says he has only lost his sense of taste today

    He is young but has some severe health issues which are a concern
    Sounds quite nasty. Best of luck to them
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MaxPB said:

    Looks like the quarter final has hit the COVID case numbers today and will be very high tomorrow. 2k PCR positives on Monday by specimen date is very high for the previous day. I'm less bothered by LFT positives than most so even at 7k it's still a big who cares, but I did expect it to come in significantly higher for Monday as people do them before going back to work etc...

    You sure it's the quarter final creating the issue here - given the lead time for COVID I suspect it's the Round of 16 that is the reason for yesterdays figures.

    It will be Friday or Saturday before we see the QuarterFinal impact.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    28k....37....406

    400 admissions seems pretty bad.

    That's the same level as the last week of September 2020. We did lockdown 2 once admissions reached ~1,500 in late October.
    So about 10 per county ? Hardly a need to lockdown
    I'm not arguing for a lockdown. I provided the numbers from last autumn solely for context.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:
    No problem, Scotty❤️

    What's the tweet about?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,719
    Scott_xP said:
    She sounds a well-balanced young woman. Next tournament will be less of a physical challenge.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    Potential bacterial chest infection? Mild asthmatics?
    I assume its because of the noise he makes whilst breathing - when he was about 16 he had pneumonia - no idea if that a factor
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,719
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    Potential bacterial chest infection? Mild asthmatics?
    I assume its because of the noise he makes whilst breathing - when he was about 16 he had pneumonia - no idea if that a factor
    Quite probably. Same GP?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    Manx Missile does it again.....

    SPOTY candidate?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The Speccie has picked up on a stat from Sajid Javid today that bears scrutiny.

    He said the government estimates that seven million people did not present themselves for help with serious conditions such as cancer and heart disease during the pandemic. Seven million.

    How afraid of covid must these people have been, to fail to come forward for conditions much more life threatening than covid for the vast majority?

    Who,moreover, is responsible for making these people think that way?
  • ajbajb Posts: 114
    "I have not been able to find similar data for driving license holders but I am sure that it would be a similar picture. We do know that about 50% of those with driving licences do not renew than when they get to 70 – and the oldies are much more likely to be Tories. "

    But in the other direction, leave was surely higher among small town dwellers and van-driving tradesmen, and lower among metropolitans who normally use public transport. It's not obvious to me which factor is larger.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,719

    The Speccie has picked up on a stat from Sajid Javid today that bears scrutiny.

    He said the government estimates that seven million people did not present themselves for help with serious conditions such as cancer and heart disease during the pandemic. Seven million.

    How afraid of covid must these people have been, to fail to come forward for conditions much more life threatening than covid for the vast majority?

    Who,moreover, is responsible for making these people think that way?

    Excessive difficulty in accessing a GP? The local practice is highly regarded, but even telephone consultations are difficult to obtain now.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Manx Missile does it again.....

    SPOTY candidate?

    Yep - but it's an olympic year so guessing the candidates and winners now just isn't possible..
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    What proportion of over 60s have a Freedom Pass? Surely that's much more likely than a passport or a driving license? I believe those are photocards, although it might just be the London Oyster version I'm thinking of.

    Anyway, the attempts to stop postal vote harvesting are way more important than requiring voter ID, in my book.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Scott_xP said:
    She sounds a well-balanced young woman. Next tournament will be less of a physical challenge.
    Yes, she does. And I don't think John McEnroe deserves the shit he got for the temerity to suggest the situation might have been overwhelming for her, and to admire how the best modern tennis players deal with the pressure. I did not take his comments negatively against the young lady in the slightest, more as a remark on how pressured the system has become and how hard it is to thrive in it.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Endillion said:

    What proportion of over 60s have a Freedom Pass? Surely that's much more likely than a passport or a driving license? I believe those are photocards, although it might just be the London Oyster version I'm thinking of.

    Anyway, the attempts to stop postal vote harvesting are way more important than requiring voter ID, in my book.

    What attempts to stop postal vote harvesting....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Delta update - Son, double jabbed and having suffered covid last year and his girlfriend (double jabbed) are both now on anti biotics

    He describes this bout of covid as "far, far worse than the first one"

    Clue: antibiotics have no affect on viruses.
    See other post ......

    I am not a doctor - all I can say is what he thought the doctor said to him
    Potential bacterial chest infection? Mild asthmatics?
    I assume its because of the noise he makes whilst breathing - when he was about 16 he had pneumonia - no idea if that a factor
    Quite probably. Same GP?
    No - but the current doc is well aware of his more recent medical issues
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    edited July 2021

    Cookie said:

    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    I admire your wife's can do attitude and such a shame some people don't want covid to end
    So do I. That's one of the many reasons I married her. :smile:
    We'll do this one. But to some extent we're having to pick and choose who the girls socialise with because we know how righteous some parents are going to be if anyone tests positive. These parents are generally those who have been most assiduous in denying their children any sort of a life for the last year and a half.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153
    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    isam said:

    Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless

    And every SKS header is always positive.
    Everytime SKS has a decent PMQs there is a thread header about it.
    The solution is presumably for those pro-Johnson and anti-Starmer to contribute headers?* I'd be interested in a header on who should take over from Starmer. In fact I very much enjoy reading headers (and comments) from people who have opposing views to mine - I learn more that way than by having my own opinions regurgitated.

    *not meant to be glib, I too would welcome more headers with an opposing viewpoint, but I'd rather OGH and the other regulars were honest (as I assume they are) rather than set out to write a header on ten reasons Starmer is awful if they actually rate him personally. There are plenty of Tories on here, some even support the government - I'd love them to contribute headers.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    What proportion of over 60s have a Freedom Pass? Surely that's much more likely than a passport or a driving license? I believe those are photocards, although it might just be the London Oyster version I'm thinking of.

    Anyway, the attempts to stop postal vote harvesting are way more important than requiring voter ID, in my book.

    What attempts to stop postal vote harvesting....
    The bill will ban party campaigners from handling postal votes, "put a stop to postal vote harvesting and make it an offence for a person to attempt to find out or reveal who an absent voter has chosen to vote for," the Cabinet Office said.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57723200
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Watching my first GB news segment - oh dear sound issues and the video quality ..........

    Plus the presenter made a factually incorrect statement in the first minute which did not help .......
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    Coughs. You said 100,000 a day THIS WEEK.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Looks like the quarter final has hit the COVID case numbers today and will be very high tomorrow. 2k PCR positives on Monday by specimen date is very high for the previous day. I'm less bothered by LFT positives than most so even at 7k it's still a big who cares, but I did expect it to come in significantly higher for Monday as people do them before going back to work etc...

    You sure it's the quarter final creating the issue here - given the lead time for COVID I suspect it's the Round of 16 that is the reason for yesterdays figures.

    It will be Friday or Saturday before we see the QuarterFinal impact.
    Impact in terms of people getting tested after the weekend because they went out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

    When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    The Speccie has picked up on a stat from Sajid Javid today that bears scrutiny.

    He said the government estimates that seven million people did not present themselves for help with serious conditions such as cancer and heart disease during the pandemic. Seven million.

    How afraid of covid must these people have been, to fail to come forward for conditions much more life threatening than covid for the vast majority?

    Who,moreover, is responsible for making these people think that way?

    Excessive difficulty in accessing a GP? The local practice is highly regarded, but even telephone consultations are difficult to obtain now.
    The service provided during Covid by GP surgeries has varied from fantastic to none at all.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Hmm.
    I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).

    Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.

    I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.

    Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).

    Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.

    (Remember - England-only data).

    While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.
  • Presumably id documentation will also include Irish, Maltese, Indian passports?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    Was every thread header always proclaiming bad news for the government or is it just since Boris became PM? Relentless

    And every SKS header is always positive.
    Everytime SKS has a decent PMQs there is a thread header about it.
    The solution is presumably for those pro-Johnson and anti-Starmer to contribute headers?* I'd be interested in a header on who should take over from Starmer. In fact I very much enjoy reading headers (and comments) from people who have opposing views to mine - I learn more that way than by having my own opinions regurgitated.

    *not meant to be glib, I too would welcome more headers with an opposing viewpoint, but I'd rather OGH and the other regulars were honest (as I assume they are) rather than set out to write a header on ten reasons Starmer is awful if they actually rate him personally. There are plenty of Tories on here, some even support the government - I'd love them to contribute headers.
    Agreed.

    A more unkind view might be that there is a strain of perverse victimhood amongst the supporters of a government with a majority of 80...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,773
    edited July 2021

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    If we reached 100,000 a day, then (assuming hospitalisations and numbers in hospital rose at the same rate) we could anticipate c.1,500 admissions a day, and c.7,600 people in hospital. Those numbers would be well within NHS capacity.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Looks like I've missed an entire thread since yesterday.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
    If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

    When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
    It appears that I said that it would get there by this week. Looks like that was wrong. It keeps going up however. It appears Sajid recognises the possibility too:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/covid-cases-rise-above-100000-a-day-sajid-javid-concedes-england

    Unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths are going up. The link is reduced not broken. They are up significantly in the last seven days. And these are based on case numbers 2/3/4 weeks ago which were much lower.

    I still support the release on 19 July. However people need to be clear that even two vaccines doesn't take all of the risk away.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
    If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
    We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    The post about Cookie's daughter's disco being cancelled because of pressure to do so from parents (who could presumably choose whether to send their children to the event) is one of the most depressing things I have read since this shitshow began.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK cases by specimen data and scaled to 100K

    image
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Hmm.
    I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it would go with increasing vax resistance from existing vax (that hadn't yet taken effect) and future vax, and infections (with infections being proportionate in each bucket to the number without antibodies yet).

    Lots of guesswork, but I was a bit concerned it looked a bit too optimistic on the cases numbers. It was for England alone (as data on hospital admissions and occupancy is more up to date in England). I built it to start from about 10 days ago and it had us around 30,000 cases today, 40,000 in a week, 50,000 a week later (yep, going more linear and peeling away from exponential growth) and maxing out with a 7-day average of cases between 55,000 and 60,000 somewhere between the 29th of July and 10th of August.

    I had thought that a saturation level that low was overly optimistic, but the current case figures look, if anything, a touch low.

    Hospitalisations should have a 7-day moving average of around 340 when the next three days are in (the 390 for the 3rd looks high, but if the 4th and 5th are lower than that and the 390 is random variation about the moving average, that would look right). Hospital occupancy should be 2000 or so (which it is).

    Massive guesswork, but on the remote chance that crude model is close to it (I'd be surprised if it is; it's just a way of being indicative as to what happens when the virus gets stymied by decreasing host pools in different age buckets), we'd be looking at hospitalisations peaking around 850 per day in early August before dropping away to under 500 per day by the end of August, and hospital occupancy peaking in the upper four-thousands around the same time and dropping to under 3,000 by the end of August.

    (Remember - England-only data).

    While it's all very SWAG, I'll be interested to see how the wave unfolds in comparison to it. Basically: "Above this" would equal "unhappy"; "Below this" would equal "Not a bad result" in my knee-jerk response.

    Interesting. What assumptions did you make for the vaccinated being able to be infected, and being able to infect?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    England PCR

    image
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2021
    Cookie said:

    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

    What this shows is how easy it is to scare people. Has it always been like this, or have people become more risk averse over the last 10 to 15 years, I wonder.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    edited July 2021
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    edited July 2021

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

    When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
    It appears that I said that it would get there by this week. Looks like that was wrong. It keeps going up however. It appears Sajid recognises the possibility too:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/covid-cases-rise-above-100000-a-day-sajid-javid-concedes-england

    Unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths are going up. The link is reduced not broken. They are up significantly in the last seven days. And these are based on case numbers 2/3/4 weeks ago which were much lower.

    I still support the release on 19 July. However people need to be clear that even two vaccines doesn't take all of the risk away.

    Indeed the link will never be broken as such. Let's say that for every 100,000 cases we incurred 10 hospitalisations and 1 death. Even then the link would not be broken.

    How can it ever be broken? In order to be hospitalised with covid one has to first contract covid.

    The "reduced not broken" stuff is innumerate bullshit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    +2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    The post about Cookie's daughter's disco being cancelled because of pressure to do so from parents (who could presumably choose whether to send their children to the event) is one of the most depressing things I have read since this shitshow began.

    Interesting. What makes you so depressed about it?

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

    What this shows is how easy it is to scare people. Has it always been like this, or have people become more risk averse over the last 10 to 15 years, I wonder.
    I am convinced that, over generations, we have become more risk averse in line with our increased ability to control our environment.

    Before Germ Theory was widely accepted in the West (relatively recently - 1880s or so, compared with 1000 years ago in Arab medicine) people fatalistically accepted infectious disease, just as one would drought or other pestilence over which they had no control, or we do the weather.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK R

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Age related data

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Vaccinations

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "@EuropeElects
    ·
    1h
    UK, Savanta ComRes poll:

    CON-ECR: 41% (-1)
    LAB-S&D: 35% (+2)
    LDEM-RE: 8% (-1)
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
    SNP-G/EFA: 3% (-1)

    +/- vs. 25-27 Jun

    Fieldwork: 2-4 July 2021
    Sample size: 2,176"
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
    If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
    We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
    Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?

    The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.

    But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Hospital vs Cases

    image
    image
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Cookie said:

    Daily whinge on domestic matters: Year 6 daughter's leavers disco cancelled. It's after July 19th, but the school couldn't face down the pressure from parents.
    Because some parents are terrified, no one is allowed to have a childhood.

    Wife has offered to host a party for the year 6s at our house. But has made clear to me that if certain children catch covid, we will all be self-isolating - because those children's parents will be explicit to the authorities who the children have been socialising with.

    My suggestion that we only invite the children of parents prepared not to co-operate with the authorities was not accepted.

    That's awful. Loving this aren't they. Arseholes.

    The message needs to get through to these pea brains that the vaccines are the silver bullet - the only one - and they don't get to have the opportunity to be jabbed and still play their totalitarian games.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    The post about Cookie's daughter's disco being cancelled because of pressure to do so from parents (who could presumably choose whether to send their children to the event) is one of the most depressing things I have read since this shitshow began.

    Interesting. What makes you so depressed about it?

    There's something extraordinarily bleak about the attitude of the parents.

    First, it is extremely irrational – the children have been sat together in school for the past term.

    Second, it's beyond selfish – I don't want my child to go therefore nobody's child should go.

    Third, it's sanctimonious – we shouldn't be having frivolous things like discos when there's a pandemic on.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

    When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
    I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    Vaccinations

    image
    image
    image
    image

    Looks to me like the Pfizer swap with Israel fell apart because we couldn’t be sure of using them all up before expiry. Whereas in the autumn we’re going to need a lot of them, especially if they want a mix and match on boosters for Zenecad people like me
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    +2,209 cases in the Netherlands with a fraction of the testing suggests that continental Europe isn't far behind with Delta.

    I wonder where the Dutch go on their holidays?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The people going into hospital are majority those who are refusing the vaccine, this was a known outcome of any unlockdown as we saw in Israel. What do you propose to avoid this outcome?
    If a + b = 88%, can we say that either a or b is over 50%?
    We've seen previous breakdowns of this figure were the actually unvaccinated make up a much larger proportion than the partially vaccinated, additionally we aren't halting the vaccine programme. Either way, you haven't answered the question, the vast majority of people in hospital now and for the foreseeable future are those who have said no to the vaccine. What do you propose we do?
    Where is your evidence hospitals are full of refusers?

    The answer was to vaccinate everyone, wait 2 weeks, and then lift restrictions.

    But it's too late for that now. We are committed to an unnecessary wave. The only question is how big it will be.
    “Everyone”. Pray tell how. I suggested making it mandatory upon criminal statute on here some time ago and people got the hump. What’s your idea?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Rubbish weather in SW London again today. So far this summer is ranking amongst the worst I've ever seen in the UK - which is bad luck given the current circumstanes. Could really have done with one like 2018.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    rkrkrk said:

    28k....37....406

    Yep... not great at all. My prediction at start of the month was that we would get to 300/day by end of June... but I clearly underestimated it.

    Remember also that the hospitalizations figure is actually for last week, there's a significant delay in reporting.
    England which is a bit more up to date reported 390 admissions day before yesterday... so we have potentially broken 500 admission/day for UK already.
    I did project the other day on here that we would get to 100,000 cases a day. Not everyone universally agreed with me. I do hope that I am wrong...
    I thought you said it would get to 100k cases a day by last week?

    When do you think it will get to 100k by? And if it does without causing hospitalisations and deaths because the link has been broken then why should we care?
    I imagine the approx 20,000 people who get long Covid will care. Or do they not matter?
    Do they matter more than the x thousand people who get cancer? Or have a heart attack?
This discussion has been closed.