Tories edging out in the C&A betting but still very strong odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue0 -
Far too soon - unless it was the preparations (catering, security) that started things off.NickyBreakspear said:
Look at Cornwall. Impact of the G7 summit or is that too soon?Malmesbury said:UK cases by specimen date
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But is it just hebephilia?ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue0 -
Yeah, the security teams are there well in advance.Malmesbury said:
Far too soon - unless it was the preparations (catering, security) that started things off.NickyBreakspear said:
Look at Cornwall. Impact of the G7 summit or is that too soon?Malmesbury said:UK cases by specimen date
The Secret Service are something else.0 -
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=202 -
There were a bunch of police at the G7 who went down with it, they had to designate one hotel for isolation.NickyBreakspear said:
Look at Cornwall. Impact of the G7 summit or is that too soon?Malmesbury said:UK cases by specimen date
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What it clearly isn’t is a sign she’s fit to be in charge of safeguarding processes.Gardenwalker said:
But is it just hebephilia?ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue0 -
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.3 -
1-10
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And deters rabbits?ydoethur said:
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.0 -
It's the power of tribal support, and shows even then most cannot pretend to believe Boris would repay a fiver.CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Harsh on Keir though.0 -
BBC Evening News Cornwall Medical Director says it started before G7 and traces it to the half term holiday and a largely unvaccinated hospitality sector given their ages.NickyBreakspear said:
Look at Cornwall. Impact of the G7 summit or is that too soon?Malmesbury said:UK cases by specimen date
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Re C&A, turnout was down by a third. Anyone like to make a similar estimate here?
My gut is that the LibDems will get their 2019 vote out, plus a modest amount of tactical voting - say 17k total.
The Conservatives, by contrast, will see a third of their vote stay home, so 20k.
Others 5k.2 -
You've taken that completely out of context. The sort of thing I expect from the Daily Mail rather than sensible contributors on here.ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
It is already the case that two 15 year olds sleeping together would not be charged with under aged sex.
This is a complex subject and it not appropriate to use the phrase 'child pornography' for two teenagers of the same age exchanging messages. Clearly it's not great, especially if the messages fall into the wrong hands and we'd do better teaching them about privacy and the dangers of revenge, as well as tackle coercion by boys.
But two teenagers getting together? Don't be a dunderhead.0 -
Ed Davey, on the other hand, is more like Verbena.ydoethur said:
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.
What do you mean you've never heard of Verbena???0 -
I didn't realise Verbena was invisible. Must have some military applications.rcs1000 said:
Ed Davey, on the other hand, is more like Verbena.ydoethur said:
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.
What do you mean you've never heard of Verbena???0 -
Gardenwalker said:
But is it just hebephilia?ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
I am not sure how you get from this quote below (in reference to teenage boys sending naked photos of themselves to girls), to 'she condones child pornography':
"Ms Spielman replied: "There’s a spectrum here and the advisers we had on the reference group were really helpful on this – in sexual misconduct of every kind there is a spectrum from the truly evil and appalling at one extreme all the way down to things which are essentially clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality.
"And one of the things that we noticed in doing this work was that it was really difficult for schools to find a good way of thinking about and representing that gradient and understanding where the right place to sort of draw the line was in terms of deciding what was a cause for serious concern and what was simply a matter of education where the messages that reinforce culture and that help boys and girls understand what oversteps the mark and help them understand the importance of respecting that."
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.2 -
Under the law, that’s child pornography and it is a criminal offence to both create and distribute it. Any school that failed to treat it as a safeguarding incident would be prosecuted - by OFSTED.Cocky_cockney said:
You've taken that completely out of context. The sort of thing I expect from the Daily Mail rather than sensible contributors on here.ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
It is already the case that two 15 year olds sleeping together would not be charged with under aged sex.
This is a complex subject and it not appropriate to use the phrase 'child pornography' for two teenagers of the same age exchanging messages. Clearly it's not great, especially if the messages fall into the wrong hands and we'd do better teaching them about privacy and the dangers of revenge, as well as tackle coercion by boys.
But two teenagers getting together? Don't be a dunderhead.
So you have a problem with those rules? You should take it up with them.
I happen to think that sending pictures of underage children with their clothes off is a very serious matter, particularly given how such images can end up on line. That doesn’t make me a dunderhead. Merely intelligent and knowledgeable.
Bear in mind Spielman has previous on this, having said those who bring allegations of rape should be left in the same classes as those they are complaining about - again, contrary to the law.
What your response does show is how little understanding of how big a problem this is and how damaging it can be. Which, truthfully, isn’t surprising among lay people like yourself. Why should you know?
It is a bit worrying when it comes from the person charged with overseeing safeguarding.
But then, she is dishonest, incompetent, and has failed in everything she’s tried. Dido Harding on acid.2 -
Well, it’s the law’s definition, and it is defined that way for very good reasons.TimT said:
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.2 -
ydoethur you really have NO idea what you're talking about. A typical right wing reactionary. Stop commenting if you don't know what you're on about.
Police don't routinely don't charge teenagers who sleep around with each other and nor should they. Having spent most of my life working in Child Protection I can happily tell you to stop being an idiot.
Where there's a significant age difference and 'abuse of trust' that's a different matter and we all need to look at the way social media operates in this context.
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There’s a big difference between kids experimenting with each other, and taking photos of themselves doing it.Cocky_cockney said:
You've taken that completely out of context. The sort of thing I expect from the Daily Mail rather than sensible contributors on here.ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
It is already the case that two 15 year olds sleeping together would not be charged with under aged sex.
This is a complex subject and it not appropriate to use the phrase 'child pornography' for two teenagers of the same age exchanging messages. Clearly it's not great, especially if the messages fall into the wrong hands and we'd do better teaching them about privacy and the dangers of revenge, as well as tackle coercion by boys.
But two teenagers getting together? Don't be a dunderhead.
Any sexual image of someone under 18 is a serious offence for anyone who possesses it, with the potential to ruin the future lives of these kids.
It needs to be made really clear to children, that such images are totally verboten, are not to be made, and are to be immediately deleted or reported if received.2 -
LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - The EU drug regulator said on Thursday it has received reports of 415 possible cases of rare blood clotting with a low platelet count in the European Economic Area, out of more than 50 million people who have received AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-drug-regulator-records-415-cases-possible-rare-blood-clotting-2021-06-17/?taid=60cb844aab06fd0001472396&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
They are routinely treated as bloody safeguarding issues! I am a teacher! I get this dinned into me twice a year!Cocky_cockney said:ydoethur you really have NO idea what you're talking about. A typical right wing reactionary. Stop commenting if you don't know what you're on about.
Police don't routinely don't charge teenagers who sleep around with each other and nor should that. Having spent most of my life working in child protection I can happily tell you to stop being an idiot.
Where there's a significant age difference and 'abuse of trust' that's a different matter and we all need to look at the way social media operates in this context.
And currently working in child protection I’m happy to tell you you’re talking complete nonsense. I am going to have to assume -certainly, hope - you’re lying about the other bit because your statement is almost as absurd as Spielman’s.1 -
I accept that it may well be the legal definition, and that adults taking or possessing the same images clearly would be child pornography. But I am at a total loss at what is gained by treating teenagers who take naked photos of themselves as sex criminals.ydoethur said:
Well, it’s the law’s definition, and it is defined that way for very good reasons.TimT said:
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.0 -
Treating them as a safeguarding risk is not quite the same as treating them as a ‘sex criminal.’TimT said:
I accept that it may well be the legal definition, and that adults taking or possessing the same images clearly would be child pornography. But I am at a total loss at what is gained by treating teenagers who take naked photos of themselves as sex criminals.ydoethur said:
Well, it’s the law’s definition, and it is defined that way for very good reasons.TimT said:
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.
One reason it has to be referred to safeguarding is because they have put themselves at risk not only of serious personal damage but also of prosecution.2 -
OK. That makes sense. And I now understand that you were being legalistic and perhaps a little deliberately polemical in the posting I responded to.ydoethur said:
Treating them as a safeguarding risk is not quite the same as treating them as a ‘sex criminal.’TimT said:
I accept that it may well be the legal definition, and that adults taking or possessing the same images clearly would be child pornography. But I am at a total loss at what is gained by treating teenagers who take naked photos of themselves as sex criminals.ydoethur said:
Well, it’s the law’s definition, and it is defined that way for very good reasons.TimT said:
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.
One reason it has to be referred to safeguarding is because they have put themselves at risk not only of serious personal damage but also of prosecution.0 -
I really, really wasn’t.TimT said:
OK. That makes sense. And I now understand that you were being legalistic and perhaps a little deliberately polemical in the posting I responded to.ydoethur said:
Treating them as a safeguarding risk is not quite the same as treating them as a ‘sex criminal.’TimT said:
I accept that it may well be the legal definition, and that adults taking or possessing the same images clearly would be child pornography. But I am at a total loss at what is gained by treating teenagers who take naked photos of themselves as sex criminals.ydoethur said:
Well, it’s the law’s definition, and it is defined that way for very good reasons.TimT said:
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.
One reason it has to be referred to safeguarding is because they have put themselves at risk not only of serious personal damage but also of prosecution.
Anyone who worked in a school and said what Spielman has just said would undoubtedly be disciplined.1 -
If the Tories aren't telling everywhere they either think they have won easily, or they've given up. Their GOTV wizard works on a grid of 9 and is quite good, but if you are wasting time knocking up people who have already voted... This should give the Lib Dems an advantage.0
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In addition, the number of girls who report harassment at school is basically... all of them.ydoethur said:
I really, really wasn’t.TimT said:
OK. That makes sense. And I now understand that you were being legalistic and perhaps a little deliberately polemical in the posting I responded to.ydoethur said:
Treating them as a safeguarding risk is not quite the same as treating them as a ‘sex criminal.’TimT said:
I accept that it may well be the legal definition, and that adults taking or possessing the same images clearly would be child pornography. But I am at a total loss at what is gained by treating teenagers who take naked photos of themselves as sex criminals.ydoethur said:
Well, it’s the law’s definition, and it is defined that way for very good reasons.TimT said:
Teenage boys send naked pictures of selves to teenage girls who laugh at them with contempt is not my definition of child pornography, and probably is 'clumsy explorations of emerging adolescent sexuality'.
One reason it has to be referred to safeguarding is because they have put themselves at risk not only of serious personal damage but also of prosecution.
Anyone who worked in a school and said what Spielman has just said would undoubtedly be disciplined.
We were talking about banter before - "Boys will be boys" = "NFA all the complaints"
The girls don't believe that anything will be done and on it goes.1 -
It's being sold in Seattle, at Trader Joe's. Or at least it was at the start of last year, when I had some at a friend's house.beentheredonethat said:Does anyone remember “Oranjeboom” a lager from iirc late 70s? I have, for no discernible reason, the adverts theme song stuck in my head now. Which, given the lyrics, is rather inapt.
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I remember “Oranjeboom”SeaShantyIrish2 said:
It's being sold in Seattle, at Trader Joe's. Or at least it was at the start of last year, when I had some at a friend's house.beentheredonethat said:Does anyone remember “Oranjeboom” a lager from iirc late 70s? I have, for no discernible reason, the adverts theme song stuck in my head now. Which, given the lyrics, is rather inapt.
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It's a lager not a tune...SeaShantyIrish2 said:
It's being sold in Seattle, at Trader Joe's. Or at least it was at the start of last year, when I had some at a friend's house.beentheredonethat said:Does anyone remember “Oranjeboom” a lager from iirc late 70s? I have, for no discernible reason, the adverts theme song stuck in my head now. Which, given the lyrics, is rather inapt.
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Easily explainedkle4 said:
It's the power of tribal support, and shows even then most cannot pretend to believe Boris would repay a fiver.CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Harsh on Keir though.
They don't think boris would return it because they think he is untrustworthy
They don't think Kier would return it because you might spend it on something he disapproves off0 -
Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.6
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Incidentally, in other educational clusterfucks, the assessment system
lashed up at the last momentcarefully mapped out over the last year is working much as expected:
https://www.tes.com/news/gcses-2021-schools-cant-submit-grades-site-crashes1 -
I'm sure that half the nation still has a cupboard full of dried pasta.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
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FT Belgium 2-10
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No. I’ve used all mine.SandyRentool said:
I'm sure that half the nation still has a cupboard full of dried pasta.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
If you’d said ‘tinned chicken soup, instant mashed potato and tinned meat pies,’ however...1 -
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1405552655410286593
An absolute joke: same Portuguese government who thought it was a good idea to welcome tens of thousands of British tourists during a Delta variant outbreak and before people in Portugal were vaccinated has now decreed harsh new containment measures0 -
Also the Owen Jones (podcast) Show. He has all sorts on and gives them time and space. It's about the guests not about him.FrancisUrquhart said:
The only problem with having Neil do it, is his reputation proceeds him. Freddie Sayers is doing similar type of interviews for Unherd, in which he has a really good manner where he is friendly and chatty, but he knows the stats, and he just points it out when they are talking nonsense in a very polite, "well what about this study which says"...and it is left up to the viewer to make their own decision about if the guest was full of BS or now.Sandpit said:
What a breath of fresh air it was, to see Neil and Sunak sit down for half an hour.FrancisUrquhart said:
The BBC thinking would have been too old, too white, too right wing (despite absolutely duffing any Tory politicians who go near him)....rottenborough said:
Yep. Exactly. Why heads haven't rolled over losing Neil is beyond me. They have created a competitor for no good reason other than some "creative" idiot thought the schedule need a spruce up on a thursday night.tlg86 said:
Just think, if wasn't for some twat at the BBC, This Week would still be going strong and GB News wouldn't exist.TheScreamingEagles said:
He’s no Suzanne Evans.CarlottaVance said:Edwin Poots is "on his way out" just 5 weeks after being elected DUP leader
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1405553310032175110?s=20
I mean they didn't even use him at GE time properly. Remember they stuck him on that barge.
Its like Newsnight tried to become younger and hipper and cooler....and their ratings tanked....QT started inviting total nobody actors, comedians and other knobheads on who are supposed popular with da yuff....and their rantings tanked.
If they can keep getting minsters and shadows on for long-form interviews, the channel will be successful because no-one else is doing it.3 -
I am staggered that it is still knocking around.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
It's being sold in Seattle, at Trader Joe's. Or at least it was at the start of last year, when I had some at a friend's house.beentheredonethat said:Does anyone remember “Oranjeboom” a lager from iirc late 70s? I have, for no discernible reason, the adverts theme song stuck in my head now. Which, given the lyrics, is rather inapt.
Cheers0 -
Boris would never repay ever a fiver.CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
It should be zero because it's true.3 -
The holiday destination countries in Europe are all about to make the same mistake, opening up too early in the vaccination rollout for commercial reasons, and are likely to follow quickly behind Portugal.Floater said:https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1405552655410286593
An absolute joke: same Portuguese government who thought it was a good idea to welcome tens of thousands of British tourists during a Delta variant outbreak and before people in Portugal were vaccinated has now decreed harsh new containment measures
Spain and its islands are next - who thinks that cramming Europe’s unvaccinated young into the superclubs of Ibiza, is going to be anything other than carnage in the next few weeks?5 -
Evening all
Despite everything, it's interesting to see where "true power" lies.
After weeks of encouraging me to go and meet clients, my manager comes on Teams today for our regular catch-up and says "I don't think you should do any more face-to-face meetings until this Delta Variant is sorted out.".
I pointed out (which she knew) I was doubly vaccinated and had been so for three weeks.
She then quoted back some article from the Daily Mail (so it must be true) claiming 29% of those who had died had been doubly vaccinated and it wasn't reliable and you shouldn't believe you're safe.
She is an intelligent and erudite person and the notion she has been "sucked in" by a piece of statistical nonsense made me realise how easily statistics can be used to enforce or re-enforce fear.
The I start reading about how hardly anyone has actually died of coronavirus - those that died were close to death anyway apparently and that it's really not much more than a bad cold (tell my brother that was my initial thought).
At what point and in what way did so many lose their critical faculties and simply accept any old ordure put in front of them? Is it because those who shout believe if they shout loud enough and long enough people will start listening to them - we've a couple on here in that category?
Statistics are a real problem - most people are in truth barely numerate and the weaponising of percentages and graphs to push forward an agenda or an argument or a policy has been one of the more reprehensible aspects of the past 15 months.
"Lies, damned lies and statistics" - as someone once said. I suspect following betting markets isn't far off that as well.4 -
My wife attended the G7 summit. The NHS app just told her to self isolate for the next three days.NickyBreakspear said:
Look at Cornwall. Impact of the G7 summit or is that too soon?Malmesbury said:UK cases by specimen date
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Twitter is obviously a v bad guide, but if tells me anything it is that the Labour vote has definitely gone wholesale to the LDs.0
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That’s the smelly stuff that puts you to sleep?rcs1000 said:
Ed Davey, on the other hand, is more like Verbena.ydoethur said:
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.
What do you mean you've never heard of Verbena???0 -
I suggest making some bets with your manager. After having secured a new job, but before you leave.stodge said:Evening all
Despite everything, it's interesting to see where "true power" lies.
After weeks of encouraging me to go and meet clients, my manager comes on Teams today for our regular catch-up and says "I don't think you should do any more face-to-face meetings until this Delta Variant is sorted out.".
I pointed out (which she knew) I was doubly vaccinated and had been so for three weeks.
She then quoted back some article from the Daily Mail (so it must be true) claiming 29% of those who had died had been doubly vaccinated and it wasn't reliable and you shouldn't believe you're safe.
She is an intelligent and erudite person and the notion she has been "sucked in" by a piece of statistical nonsense made me realise how easily statistics can be used to enforce or re-enforce fear.
The I start reading about how hardly anyone has actually died of coronavirus - those that died were close to death anyway apparently and that it's really not much more than a bad cold (tell my brother that was my initial thought).
At what point and in what way did so many lose their critical faculties and simply accept any old ordure put in front of them? Is it because those who shout believe if they shout loud enough and long enough people will start listening to them - we've a couple on here in that category?
Statistics are a real problem - most people are in truth barely numerate and the weaponising of percentages and graphs to push forward an agenda or an argument or a policy has been one of the more reprehensible aspects of the past 15 months.
"Lies, damned lies and statistics" - as someone once said. I suspect following betting markets isn't far off that as well.0 -
I find this weird - I've never sent a female a naked image of myself.ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
Why on earth would they want that?0 -
No need to wonder, they most certainly don’t.Casino_Royale said:
I find this weird - I've never sent a female a naked image of myself.ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
Why on earth would they want that?0 -
I've still got lots of stuff in my cupboard from my "end of days" purchase in February 2020.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
1 -
I’m good for toilet roll until at least Christmas, assuming a steady diet.Casino_Royale said:
I've still got lots of stuff in my cupboard from my "end of days" purchase in February 2020.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
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My father hoards like doomsday prepper.Casino_Royale said:
I've still got lots of stuff in my cupboard from my "end of days" purchase in February 2020.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
My mother and myself used to mock him for that, oddly that mocking ended in February/March 2020.2 -
The part of the Labour vote that has anything to do with Twitter maybe.Gardenwalker said:Twitter is obviously a v bad guide, but if tells me anything it is that the Labour vote has definitely gone wholesale to the LDs.
In my experience, much of the Labour vote nationally - those who actually get off their arse to vote for Labour - couldn't tell Twitter from the dawn chorus...2 -
That sounds like the same statistic i posted here last week, which someone told me about, out of the blue. It sounded unlikely to me, and I wondered where it came from.stodge said:Evening all
Despite everything, it's interesting to see where "true power" lies.
After weeks of encouraging me to go and meet clients, my manager comes on Teams today for our regular catch-up and says "I don't think you should do any more face-to-face meetings until this Delta Variant is sorted out.".
I pointed out (which she knew) I was doubly vaccinated and had been so for three weeks.
She then quoted back some article from the Daily Mail (so it must be true) claiming 29% of those who had died had been doubly vaccinated and it wasn't reliable and you shouldn't believe you're safe.
She is an intelligent and erudite person and the notion she has been "sucked in" by a piece of statistical nonsense made me realise how easily statistics can be used to enforce or re-enforce fear.
The I start reading about how hardly anyone has actually died of coronavirus - those that died were close to death anyway apparently and that it's really not much more than a bad cold (tell my brother that was my initial thought).
At what point and in what way did so many lose their critical faculties and simply accept any old ordure put in front of them? Is it because those who shout believe if they shout loud enough and long enough people will start listening to them - we've a couple on here in that category?
Statistics are a real problem - most people are in truth barely numerate and the weaponising of percentages and graphs to push forward an agenda or an argument or a policy has been one of the more reprehensible aspects of the past 15 months.
"Lies, damned lies and statistics" - as someone once said. I suspect following betting markets isn't far off that as well.0 -
Reminds me of the 2019 Cup Final.Watford were behind but still competitive, and then early in the second half Man City brought KdB on: Final score Man City 6 Watford 0.DavidL said:
I think bringing on de Bruyne is a form of cheating. It just doesn't seem fair.ping said:FT Belgium 2-1
He is just the greatest player in the world at the moment, but there’s a humbleness about him that means that it’s not fully recognised.2 -
Don't be so hard on yourself mateCasino_Royale said:
I find this weird - I've never sent a female a naked image of myself.ydoethur said:If anyone wants proof that Spielman is not only mad, but a genuine risk to children in her current role, please read this.
Trigger warning - she condones child pornography.
https://www.tes.com/news/ofsted-nude-pupil-pictures-not-safeguarding-issue
Why on earth would they want that?2 -
Less food from pigs.
Brexit has led to the Islamification of Britain.
Britain's supermarkets could be forced to buy pigs in blankets from foreign suppliers this Christmas as the UK's meat processing factories battle a severe shortage of workers.
Industry experts warned that UK factories are currently operating with 10pc fewer staff than their capacity after the labour crisis which has struck pubs and restaurants spilled over into manufacturing.
Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processors Association, said the staff shortage could force British companies to import festive favourites as they prepare for the December shopping spree.
He said: "You actually start planning for Christmas at this time of year, and certainly things like pigs in blankets, you start making them now and putting them in the freezer ready to be brought out at Christmas."
Bosses have lobbied the Government to make it easier to recruit from overseas as they struggle to attract British workers to join the industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/17/pigs-blankets-risk-christmas-staff-shortages-bite/0 -
Just going to repeat last year mistake. Delta Variant will be all over Europe by end of August.Sandpit said:
The holiday destination countries in Europe are all about to make the same mistake, opening up too early in the vaccination rollout for commercial reasons, and are likely to follow quickly behind Portugal.Floater said:https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1405552655410286593
An absolute joke: same Portuguese government who thought it was a good idea to welcome tens of thousands of British tourists during a Delta variant outbreak and before people in Portugal were vaccinated has now decreed harsh new containment measures
Spain and its islands are next - who thinks that cramming Europe’s unvaccinated young into the superclubs of Ibiza, is going to be anything other than carnage in the next few weeks?0 -
I remember it. Expensive pee like most lagersSeaShantyIrish2 said:
It's being sold in Seattle, at Trader Joe's. Or at least it was at the start of last year, when I had some at a friend's house.beentheredonethat said:Does anyone remember “Oranjeboom” a lager from iirc late 70s? I have, for no discernible reason, the adverts theme song stuck in my head now. Which, given the lyrics, is rather inapt.
1 -
London (CNN Business): The United Kingdom's first new trade deal since Brexit is a sobering reminder of the mammoth task it faces as it seeks to compensate for losing the economic benefits of EU membership.
The deal announced Tuesday with Australia is the first bilateral trade agreement the United Kingdom has negotiated from scratch since it left the European Union last year. Britain has also struck deals with Japan and Norway, but they were based on existing agreements negotiated by the European Union.
The United Kingdom's ability to set its own trade policy has been billed by the government as a major benefit of Brexit. But the Australia deal is only expected to boost the size of the UK economy by 0.02% over 15 years, increasing GDP by £500 million ($704 million) compared to its 2018 level, according to the Department for International Trade.
By comparison, Britain's new trading relationship with the European Union is expected to lead to a long-run loss of output of around 4% compared to remaining in the bloc, according to a previous forecast by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces economic projections for the government.0 -
Better than steady diarrhoea...IanB2 said:
I’m good for toilet roll until at least Christmas, assuming a steady diet.Casino_Royale said:
I've still got lots of stuff in my cupboard from my "end of days" purchase in February 2020.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
0 -
I thought that was chloroform?Charles said:
That’s the smelly stuff that puts you to sleep?rcs1000 said:
Ed Davey, on the other hand, is more like Verbena.ydoethur said:
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.
What do you mean you've never heard of Verbena???0 -
They won't be able to unless they import them frozen - we're ending the import of fresh sausages from October.TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain's supermarkets could be forced to buy pigs in blankets from foreign suppliers this Christmas
0 -
Getting ‘just in time’ right is critical for this one.squareroot2 said:
Better than steady diarrhoea...IanB2 said:
I’m good for toilet roll until at least Christmas, assuming a steady diet.Casino_Royale said:
I've still got lots of stuff in my cupboard from my "end of days" purchase in February 2020.Cookie said:Completely off thread, I have just used my last jar of pasta sauce bought in March 2020.
0 -
I will be surprised if it takes that long. It is already there, and accelerating.FrancisUrquhart said:
Just going to repeat last year mistake. Delta Variant will be all over Europe by end of August.Sandpit said:
The holiday destination countries in Europe are all about to make the same mistake, opening up too early in the vaccination rollout for commercial reasons, and are likely to follow quickly behind Portugal.Floater said:https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1405552655410286593
An absolute joke: same Portuguese government who thought it was a good idea to welcome tens of thousands of British tourists during a Delta variant outbreak and before people in Portugal were vaccinated has now decreed harsh new containment measures
Spain and its islands are next - who thinks that cramming Europe’s unvaccinated young into the superclubs of Ibiza, is going to be anything other than carnage in the next few weeks?1 -
12/42 deaths recorded from Delta are from double vaccinated people. It looks bad but ultimately it needs to be adjusted for age and susceptibility. That number would be significantly larger if vaccines didn't exist and it would be more like 5000 dead in total rather than just 42. Vaccine efficacy needs to be measured against what we think would have happened without the vaccine, not vaccinated vs unvaccinated because unvaccinated people are much more likely to be younger and much less susceptible to dying from COVID.IanB2 said:
That sounds like the same statistic i posted here last week, which someone told me about, out of the blue. It sounded unlikely to me, and I wondered where it came from.stodge said:Evening all
Despite everything, it's interesting to see where "true power" lies.
After weeks of encouraging me to go and meet clients, my manager comes on Teams today for our regular catch-up and says "I don't think you should do any more face-to-face meetings until this Delta Variant is sorted out.".
I pointed out (which she knew) I was doubly vaccinated and had been so for three weeks.
She then quoted back some article from the Daily Mail (so it must be true) claiming 29% of those who had died had been doubly vaccinated and it wasn't reliable and you shouldn't believe you're safe.
She is an intelligent and erudite person and the notion she has been "sucked in" by a piece of statistical nonsense made me realise how easily statistics can be used to enforce or re-enforce fear.
The I start reading about how hardly anyone has actually died of coronavirus - those that died were close to death anyway apparently and that it's really not much more than a bad cold (tell my brother that was my initial thought).
At what point and in what way did so many lose their critical faculties and simply accept any old ordure put in front of them? Is it because those who shout believe if they shout loud enough and long enough people will start listening to them - we've a couple on here in that category?
Statistics are a real problem - most people are in truth barely numerate and the weaponising of percentages and graphs to push forward an agenda or an argument or a policy has been one of the more reprehensible aspects of the past 15 months.
"Lies, damned lies and statistics" - as someone once said. I suspect following betting markets isn't far off that as well.
Finally the PHE measure is still death within 28 days of testing positive to COVID so of those 12 it's not very clear how many actually died of it and again, given the cohort of double jabbed people there's probably a lot of, err, actuarial deaths in that number of people who would have died with or without it.1 -
Vaccination appointments open to 18 year olds in last half hour .. Son booked in for tomorrow on NHS booking website
https://twitter.com/whjoliver/status/1405587100712460293?s=204 -
If the Lib Dems win, I make £120, so here's hoping.2
-
EU statement on UK request to extend NI meat deadline:
https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1405590614381674500?s=20
"We'll think about it..."0 -
Looks like there's a deal to be made on sausages to NI to be honest, but they need a face-saver:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1405594201954324486?s=200 -
Just call it the British sausage.Casino_Royale said:Looks like there's a deal to be made on sausages to NI to be honest, but they need a face-saver:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1405594201954324486?s=203 -
Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=200 -
Look, I cannot see why Cressida Dick was appointed Commissioner. But the Daniel Morgan murder was in 1987 when Boris was chucking things through restaurant windows and posing for *that* photograph with David Cameron. Most of the corruption issues long pre-date CD's time as Commissioner. Even the question of access for which the Inquiry directly criticises Dick relate to her earlier position as Assistant Commissioner, but she left the Metropolitan Police since then.Cyclefree said:
A giant Fuck You from Cressida - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/met-chief-dame-cressida-dick-wont-resign-police-corruption-qm09hhb9j.ping said:
I’m still pissed off with her over the talktalk hack.Cyclefree said:
It's not just the lack of health experience but that she's been fucking useless at every senior job she's held. A supermarket manager is about her level. Probably.rottenborough said:
No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.Cyclefree said:FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.
I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.
She's not even pretending to pay any attention to the report's findings. Rejects them and says she knows she is honourable and acted well throughout.
So that's OK then. Let's not bother having investigations then. Or indeed trials. Or police come to that. Let's just have people announce that they did nothing wrong and ignore all evidence to the contrary.
Honestly, a country which has people like Dido Harding and Cressida Dick in positions more senior than lavatory attendant is a country which has lost its moral compass.
If Dick goes then I won't lose any sleep. She should never have been appointed. But what's new?0 -
On Holland AH -0.75 @ 1.880
-
Honestly, they're doing exactly what Andrew Neil wanted. Proving him right about cancel culture is why GB News exists. Any company which tries to force a news organisation to change its editorial outlook should be blacklisted. The issue isn't that they're deciding not to advertise on GB News, ultimately it's a free country and they can choose where to spend their money, it's the manner in which they're doing it to try and force GB News to try and change it's editorial stance.Casino_Royale said:Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=20
It's about time that media companies stand up to the woke wankers trying to cancel any opinion or position that they deem unacceptable.3 -
It's a bit weird that there are people talking about football when C&A is in the mix.0
-
de Bruyne is the highest paid player in the EPL so someone recognises him.ThomasNashe said:
Reminds me of the 2019 Cup Final.Watford were behind but still competitive, and then early in the second half Man City brought KdB on: Final score Man City 6 Watford 0.DavidL said:
I think bringing on de Bruyne is a form of cheating. It just doesn't seem fair.ping said:FT Belgium 2-1
He is just the greatest player in the world at the moment, but there’s a humbleness about him that means that it’s not fully recognised.0 -
I genuinely can not understand how anyone can look at the rapid spread of Delta in the UK with anything other than foreboding. Despite us having quite a lot of vaccinated people, and some social distancing measures still in place, the virus is rapidly multiplying. Other countries watched Alpha/Kent take off in the UK and then spread to them, how can they possibly think that the even more transmissible Delta won't run through their populations over the next couple of months?Sandpit said:The holiday destination countries in Europe are all about to make the same mistake, opening up too early in the vaccination rollout for commercial reasons, and are likely to follow quickly behind Portugal.
Spain and its islands are next - who thinks that cramming Europe’s unvaccinated young into the superclubs of Ibiza, is going to be anything other than carnage in the next few weeks?
Has any country exhibited an ability to learn from the misfortune of others during this entire damn pandemic?5 -
No C&A news yet from the PB Metropolitan Line activists.Omnium said:It's a bit weird that there are people talking about football when C&A is in the mix.
0 -
Did you see the feckwit who was screaming on social media about how bad GBnews is .....Casino_Royale said:Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=20
Only for GB news to point out he had tried several times to get a job there
6 -
It was for a while on draught at Essex County Cricket Club. Tried it once on a very hot day, as did several people I know.beentheredonethat said:
Good grief!darkage said:
Its still around, one of those odd unremarkable beers that you see occasionally in an off licence.beentheredonethat said:Does anyone remember “Oranjeboom” a lager from iirc late 70s? I have, for no discernible reason, the adverts theme song stuck in my head now. Which, given the lyrics, is rather inapt.
I remember it as pretty terrible but may try and hunt it down and give it another chance.
Ta!
Emphasis on the once.
0 -
I rather love the Met line. Betjeman was on to something.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No C&A news yet from the PB Metropolitan Line activists.Omnium said:It's a bit weird that there are people talking about football when C&A is in the mix.
No change today though. I've gone from a great all green position to just strongly with the Tories. We'll see.0 -
Just watching itv news - Three of the Police at Manchester Arena had popped out to the kebab shop whilst the killer wandered around with his bungalow sized back pack on. One of the security officers ignored a man who said the bomber was acting suspiciously.
He had cased the joint the previous day and walked around the centre for hours on the day - the report is not good for the police or security
2 -
Most of them aren't. The issue is their adverts were running on a new channel they'd neither approved nor even seen, owing to the way advertising is sold. It is a free-ish market working more-or-less as intended. Andrew Neil and GB News are in danger of making things worse *if* they make it look like a protection racket: advertise with us or we'll criticise you on air?MaxPB said:
Honestly, they're doing exactly what Andrew Neil wanted. Proving him right about cancel culture is why GB News exists. Any company which tries to force a news organisation to change its editorial outlook should be blacklisted. The issue isn't that they're deciding not to advertise on GB News, ultimately it's a free country and they can choose where to spend their money, it's the manner in which they're doing it to try and force GB News to try and change it's editorial stance.Casino_Royale said:Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=20
It's about time that media companies stand up to the woke wankers trying to cancel any opinion or position that they deem unacceptable.1 -
It’s a naturally smoothing herb for relaxation not done nasty Tory chemicalwilliamglenn said:
I thought that was chloroform?Charles said:
That’s the smelly stuff that puts you to sleep?rcs1000 said:
Ed Davey, on the other hand, is more like Verbena.ydoethur said:
Johnson is an evergreen. Looks good all the time from a distance, but when you get close you realise the leaves are poisonous and it’s killed everything underneath it leaving a desolation.solarflare said:
Their new nicknames need some work!CarlottaVance said:I’m amazed it’s as high as 30%
NEW: Would you trust Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer more to repay a fiver that you lent them?
Deciduous tree Boris Johnson: 30%
Rose Keir Starmer: 36%
DK: 33%
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405569577107574791?s=20
Starmer is more of a marigold - flowers impressively, but doesn’t last.
What do you mean you've never heard of Verbena???0 -
It looked like the channel was going to massively fail before stop funding hate put them to the top of the news agenda for the past 3 days. It does feel like the pendulum turning, hopefully though there is more to the channel than Andrew Neil.MaxPB said:
Honestly, they're doing exactly what Andrew Neil wanted. Proving him right about cancel culture is why GB News exists. Any company which tries to force a news organisation to change its editorial outlook should be blacklisted. The issue isn't that they're deciding not to advertise on GB News, ultimately it's a free country and they can choose where to spend their money, it's the manner in which they're doing it to try and force GB News to try and change it's editorial stance.Casino_Royale said:Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=20
It's about time that media companies stand up to the woke wankers trying to cancel any opinion or position that they deem unacceptable.0 -
Fair warning - I have backed the Tories in C&A0
-
Is he going to whine about people exercising free speech and free association?Casino_Royale said:Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=201 -
People with bungalow sized backpacks and suitcases at the arena isn't an uncommon experience.isam said:Just watching itv news - Three of the Police at Manchester Arena had popped out to the kebab shop whilst the killer wandered around with his bungalow sized back pack on. One of the security officers ignored a man who said the bomber was acting suspiciously.
He had cased the joint the previous day and walked around the centre for hours on the day - the report is not good for the police or security
You have to remember Victoria station is built into the arena, or rather the arena is built on top of the station. People often get off at Victoria on a regular basis, it has regular trains to and from the airport, as well as major intercity routes.
It is also a major interlink for the tram.0 -
-
Saved himself 15% by not paying an agent tens of millions for a basic, if extremely valuable, contract negotiation.DecrepiterJohnL said:
de Bruyne is the highest paid player in the EPL so someone recognises him.ThomasNashe said:
Reminds me of the 2019 Cup Final.Watford were behind but still competitive, and then early in the second half Man City brought KdB on: Final score Man City 6 Watford 0.DavidL said:
I think bringing on de Bruyne is a form of cheating. It just doesn't seem fair.ping said:FT Belgium 2-1
He is just the greatest player in the world at the moment, but there’s a humbleness about him that means that it’s not fully recognised.1 -
I think the Tories will win easily in C&A0
-
So it does. I am summarising the report, which says "the victims were failed on every level"TheScreamingEagles said:
People with bungalow sized backpacks and suitcases at the arena isn't an uncommon experience.isam said:Just watching itv news - Three of the Police at Manchester Arena had popped out to the kebab shop whilst the killer wandered around with his bungalow sized back pack on. One of the security officers ignored a man who said the bomber was acting suspiciously.
He had cased the joint the previous day and walked around the centre for hours on the day - the report is not good for the police or security
You have to remember Victoria station is built into the arena, or rather the arena is built on top of the station. People often get off at Victoria on a regular basis, it has regular trains to and from the airport, as well as major intercity routes.
It is also a major interlink for the tram.
"key findings:
There was no BTP officer present in the foyer and "no satisfactory explanation" for this
Two on-duty officers took a break of more than two hours, including a 10-mile round trip to buy kebabs
Abedi hid in a CCTV blindspot which had existed for years. If addressed the attack could have been "disrupted or deterred or fewer people killed"
Showsec was criticised for not ensuring staff properly checked the mezzanine where Abedi hid
Counter-terrorism training given to stewards was a "significant failure"
Risk assessments by SMG and Showsec were "inadequate"
SMG and Showsec "failed to take steps to improve security at the arena that they should have taken"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-575110791 -
Most of them appear to be implying that GBN is some sort of conduit for hate speech. This is at least slightly slanderous, no?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Most of them aren't. The issue is their adverts were running on a new channel they'd neither approved nor even seen, owing to the way advertising is sold. It is a free-ish market working more-or-less as intended. Andrew Neil and GB News are in danger of making things worse *if* they make it look like a protection racket: advertise with us or we'll criticise you on air?MaxPB said:
Honestly, they're doing exactly what Andrew Neil wanted. Proving him right about cancel culture is why GB News exists. Any company which tries to force a news organisation to change its editorial outlook should be blacklisted. The issue isn't that they're deciding not to advertise on GB News, ultimately it's a free country and they can choose where to spend their money, it's the manner in which they're doing it to try and force GB News to try and change it's editorial stance.Casino_Royale said:Looks like Brillo is going to lay the smack down in 20 minutes:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1405577713247821827?s=20
It's about time that media companies stand up to the woke wankers trying to cancel any opinion or position that they deem unacceptable.2
