Tories edging out in the C&A betting but still very strong odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com

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Tories edging out in the C&A betting but still very strong odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com

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tlg86

First.

TheScreamingEagles

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

MaxPB

Does anyone have a link to the vaccine appointment availability checker? I don't want to cancel mine as it's only 7 weeks but my wife would like to bring her's forwards from 9 weeks but doesn't want to be left waiting even longer.

Sandpit

Forth, like Lab, or Reform, or a bridge in Scotland?

ping

Sandpit said:

Forth, like Lab, or Reform, or a bridge in Scotland?

I’m afraid, you’re out of the medals

Edit: damn you edit!

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

Good to see he's resisted the temptation to pump & dump.
Noble, even.

Brom

You might see crossover if you stay up late enough. I'm still backing the Tories though. Only Lib Dem ramping I've seen has been the usual stuff on Twitter. I'd expect LD + Lab > Tory though.

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

Does anyone have a link to the vaccine appointment availability checker? I don't want to cancel mine as it's only 7 weeks but my wife would like to bring her's forwards from 9 weeks but doesn't want to be left waiting even longer.

This one?
https://www.nhs.uk/book-a-coronavirus-vaccination/do-you-have-an-nhs-number

TheScreamingEagles

Oh my word.

Paulo Fonseca will not be the next Tottenham manager after talks broke down over finances, reports
@DiMarzio
.

Next on Spurs’ shortlist is reportedly Gennaro Gattuso, who left Fiorentina today after managing the club for 22 days.

https://twitter.com/brfootball/status/1405539948460089357

Gattuso quitting isn't anything to do with Spurs, they wouldn't let him sign Jorge Mendes players.

Anabobazina

Not so good on the covid positive tests today. The w-o-w rate has inflected up slightly.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

Does anyone have a link to the vaccine appointment availability checker? I don't want to cancel mine as it's only 7 weeks but my wife would like to bring her's forwards from 9 weeks but doesn't want to be left waiting even longer.

You go on the main site, navigate to manage appointments, cancel appointment, click that and it will show you all the availability (before it has actually cancelled anything).

They need to change it, as again people will think if I click this button I am definitely cancelling my appointment, when you aren't....you are clicking to effectively say you are interested in doing so, can I see what else is available, before I proceed.

TheScreamingEagles

What's happened at the DUP?

Has Poots turned out to be a secret Papist or something?

Senior DUP source has just told me he expects DUP party officers will inform Edwin Poots today they have no confidence in him as leader of the party.

https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1405539544150077443

CarlottaVance

ooooh...

FrancisUrquhart

Anabobazina said:

Not so good on the covid positive tests today. The w-o-w rate has inflected up slightly.

hospitalizations up sharply....

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's happened at the DUP?

Has Poots turned out to be a secret Papist or something?

Senior DUP source has just told me he expects DUP party officers will inform Edwin Poots today they have no confidence in him as leader of the party.

https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1405539544150077443

I cannot tell what he has done that took them by surprise, since presumably at least some of them were among those who backed him before.

TheScreamingEagles

In the three biggest legal challenges to Obamacare, a growing number of Supreme Court justices have ruled to keep the law in place - 5-4, 6-3, now 7-2 (even as the court has become more conservative)

Of Donald Trump's three Supreme Court appointees, only one - Neil Gorsuch - voted to give Texas standing and dismantle the entirety of Obamacare.

One of the big arguments Democrats made against Amy Coney Barrett during her confirmation was that the future of Obamacare hung in the balance - that she would be the fifth vote to strike it down. Their fears turned out to be ... unfounded

https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1405542650996879378

MikeL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh my word.

Paulo Fonseca will not be the next Tottenham manager after talks broke down over finances, reports
@DiMarzio
.

Next on Spurs’ shortlist is reportedly Gennaro Gattuso, who left Fiorentina today after managing the club for 22 days.

https://twitter.com/brfootball/status/1405539948460089357

Gattuso quitting isn't anything to do with Spurs, they wouldn't let him sign Jorge Mendes players.

I'll let you and everyone else on here into a secret.

I have a very senior contact - and he tells me everyone is now having to watch FFP very, very closely.

Big clubs have generally been comfortably within the numbers for the last few years - but post Covid things have changed. Whilst some changes have been made to the FFP rules to allow for Covid, the bottom line is that everyone is now much closer to the limits.

Every decision everyone takes has now got to be weighed up very carefully against FFP constraints.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the three biggest legal challenges to Obamacare, a growing number of Supreme Court justices have ruled to keep the law in place - 5-4, 6-3, now 7-2 (even as the court has become more conservative)

Of Donald Trump's three Supreme Court appointees, only one - Neil Gorsuch - voted to give Texas standing and dismantle the entirety of Obamacare.

One of the big arguments Democrats made against Amy Coney Barrett during her confirmation was that the future of Obamacare hung in the balance - that she would be the fifth vote to strike it down. Their fears turned out to be ... unfounded

https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1405542650996879378

Even for ideologically opposed justices it is probably harder to essentially overturn past decisions, so concern about fresh issues would no doubt remain.

Scott_xP

On the left the joint US-UK statement on a cooperative framework for Large Civil Aircraft

On the right the joint US-EU statement on a cooperative framework for Large Civil Aircraft

See if you can spot the difference https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1405443236559310850 https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1405536871908724750/photo/1

Cyclefree

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

rkrkrk

Interesting to see hospitalizations growing faster than cases... that is probably a delayed effect from a week ago when cases were rising very fast...

But I also wonder whether as vaccination increases -> higher % of cases are asymptomatic -> we are missing more cases in the dashboard numbers. Because if you're asymptomatic... you're probably less likely to go and get tested?

rkrkrk

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

Can't we just skip ahead a bit and make her PM?

Stuartinromford

CarlottaVance said:

ooooh...

Schools were closed for the first week of June, so cases stopped rising for the second week of June. Then schools reopened, and it looks like cases might have started rising again a week later.

It will be fine- really it will be- but we're still in the edges of the woods.

dixiedean

FPT.
I loved boarding school. But I was Sixth Form. And it was mixed!
Result!

MaxPB

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Does anyone have a link to the vaccine appointment availability checker? I don't want to cancel mine as it's only 7 weeks but my wife would like to bring her's forwards from 9 weeks but doesn't want to be left waiting even longer.

You go on the main site, navigate to manage appointments, cancel appointment, click that and it will show you all the availability (before it has actually cancelled anything).

They need to change it, as again people will think if I click this button I am definitely cancelling my appointment, when you aren't....you are clicking to effectively say you are interested in doing so, can I see what else is available, before I proceed.

Ah I see, thanks.

Cicero

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

rottenborough

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.

I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.

Pulpstar

Well if we can't generate herd immunity easily then the antivaxxer's bodies are just going to have to be piled high I'm afraid.

Alistair

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

Not so good on the covid positive tests today. The w-o-w rate has inflected up slightly.

hospitalizations up sharply....

The like for like comparison for London between now and the 1st of October is quite surprising

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Does anyone have a link to the vaccine appointment availability checker? I don't want to cancel mine as it's only 7 weeks but my wife would like to bring her's forwards from 9 weeks but doesn't want to be left waiting even longer.

You go on the main site, navigate to manage appointments, cancel appointment, click that and it will show you all the availability (before it has actually cancelled anything).

They need to change it, as again people will think if I click this button I am definitely cancelling my appointment, when you aren't....you are clicking to effectively say you are interested in doing so, can I see what else is available, before I proceed.

I went to manage my bookings and go an immediate text saying my second booking was cancelled, and I don't think I'm so loopy that I didn't notice I had positively done it. Yet when I had checked on manage my bookings the other day, it did just let me look and it didn't do anything.

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

ooooh...

Zero covid meltdown on twitter incoming in... 1, 2, 3....

ping

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris, SKS, SAGE and the public were right.

PB was wrong.

rottenborough

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris was right.

PB was wrong.

Early days. Early days.

Sandpit

Not Frankie Dettori’s day.

solarflare

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

It's either that or Spurs.

sarissa

FPT

DavidL said:

Scottish politics edges more in the direction of tragedy than comedy these days but this clearly has potential: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57501067

In the first evidence of unrest against the Sturgeon dictatorship her nominee, Colin Beattie, was defeated 4 years ago for the position of treasurer on the votes of the membership by Douglas Chapman. Chapman resigned because as Treasurer Nicola's husband, party chief officer, was not allowing him access to the books. This left Nicola and Murrell as the only registered officers of the SNP which was a bit cozy even for her. So a solution has been found, a new Treasurer has been appointed. Step forward...Colin Beattie, her candidate who was rejected by the membership.

Fantastic. Or fantastical. Or farce. Something like that.

They had to find a replacement fall guy as being the being the only remaining officers having responsibility for the finances could prove awkard...

Floater

For Leon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIpGx1fFB8k

Alistair

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the three biggest legal challenges to Obamacare, a growing number of Supreme Court justices have ruled to keep the law in place - 5-4, 6-3, now 7-2 (even as the court has become more conservative)

Of Donald Trump's three Supreme Court appointees, only one - Neil Gorsuch - voted to give Texas standing and dismantle the entirety of Obamacare.

One of the big arguments Democrats made against Amy Coney Barrett during her confirmation was that the future of Obamacare hung in the balance - that she would be the fifth vote to strike it down. Their fears turned out to be ... unfounded

https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1405542650996879378

Even for ideologically opposed justices it is probably harder to essentially overturn past decisions, so concern about fresh issues would no doubt remain.

This latest case was based on a legal theory wacky even for ideological nutters. They could see the potential minefield it would open up if they "got" Obamacare by this mechanism.

OldKingCole

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In the three biggest legal challenges to Obamacare, a growing number of Supreme Court justices have ruled to keep the law in place - 5-4, 6-3, now 7-2 (even as the court has become more conservative)

Of Donald Trump's three Supreme Court appointees, only one - Neil Gorsuch - voted to give Texas standing and dismantle the entirety of Obamacare.

One of the big arguments Democrats made against Amy Coney Barrett during her confirmation was that the future of Obamacare hung in the balance - that she would be the fifth vote to strike it down. Their fears turned out to be ... unfounded

https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1405542650996879378

Even for ideologically opposed justices it is probably harder to essentially overturn past decisions, so concern about fresh issues would no doubt remain.

This latest case was based on a legal theory wacky even for ideological nutters. They could see the potential minefield it would open up if they "got" Obamacare by this mechanism.

With a bit of luck it'll upset and indeed anger Trump, though. Cause him to offend them.

Gardenwalker

Poots Kaput?

Cyclefree

rottenborough said:

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.

I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.

It's not just the lack of health experience but that she's been fucking useless at every senior job she's held. A supermarket manager is about her level. Probably.

contrarian

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

fox327

rottenborough said:

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris was right.

PB was wrong.

Early days. Early days.

One thing that this seems to prove is that it is impossible to keep people under lockdown, wearing masks, etc., for ever. These things are not normal human behaviour, and normal behaviour creeps back after a while. The only real defense that we have in the long run against COVID is vaccination.

MikeSmithson

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

Good to see he's resisted the temptation to pump & dump.
Noble, even.

I think there is a 35%+ chance of the LDs doing it. The fact that the Tories have not got a proper GOTV op in place is a bug gamble for them

Big_G_NorthWales

On topic, I believe if the conservatives lose C & A and fail in B & S it will be a well deserved wake up

ping

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.

I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.

It's not just the lack of health experience but that she's been fucking useless at every senior job she's held. A supermarket manager is about her level. Probably.

I’m still pissed off with her over the talktalk hack.

theProle

FPT

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

Casino_Royale said:

English Heritage says Enid Blyton was shit, xenophobic and racist.

Is there any of our heritage these ideologues actually like?

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/enid-blyton-racist-english-heritage-b1867577.html

She was certainly shit. It's the snobbery which sticks in my mind after 50 years - constant sneers at "day trippers" meaning common people. "Five go mad in Dorset" nailed it.

She wasn't shit. She wrote some of the best children's books ever written.

Apart from people saying "her vocabulary was limited" and "many of her stories had similar structure" I don't think I've ever seen any of this criticism substantiated. So, I'll put it down to snobbery in turn by her critics.

She said, quite rightly, she wasn't interested in the opinion of anyone over the age of 12, and rightly so.

Odd that she felt compelled to make that point, don't you think? There's lots of genuinely great children's lit - Milne, Potter, Lewis - and there's flabbily written drivel.

Ransome's Pigeon Post is a masterpiece of construction. As close to perfectly written as a novel (for children) can be.

As a kid I read Blyton, Ransome, Antony Buckeridge, CS Lewis, Richmal Crompton and others (as well as more adult fiction - e.g. John Buchanan, C. S. Forester).
I read the Blyton stuff younger (I started reading them independently aged around 3-4) - it's vocab is easier and the plot lines simple, and it uses only really very direct slapstick. I was a teenager myself, with a younger brother before I really got the humour in "Robert", William Brown's older brother for instance.

I think Blyton was very good for getting me into reading, and developing my reading abilities (I figured out for myself what lashings of ginger beer might be!). As an adult, it's dire, but she wasn't writing for adults.

The genius of CS Lewis, Ransome, Crompton et-al is that they wrote books which are enjoyable for both kids and adults. They have well drawn characters, who are developed through the books (less so with William, those books are more a series of clever vignettes). Blyton suffers terribly from very wooden characters. Interestingly, Pigeon Post was easily my favourite of the Ransome novels, although that might be because I was a rather like "Dick" (the geeky scientific lad), and he is very much one of the book's heroes.

As for the fact that all of them are to some extent rather un-PC - so what. Far more important to develop a love of reading, and an ability to use one's imagination (which is a lot of what reading is) than worrying about the odd rather 1950s attitude being on display.

Gardenwalker

MikeSmithson said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

Good to see he's resisted the temptation to pump & dump.
Noble, even.

I think there is a 35%+ chance of the LDs doing it. The fact that the Tories have not got a proper GOTV op in place is a bug gamble for them

Why have they not got a proper GOTV operation?

Too busy fighting the woke in the studios of GBTV?

Gardenwalker

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Some semblance of competence.

rkrkrk

Reckon we could see 500+ admitted to hospital/day by end of June.

Gardenwalker

Seems like the DUP are have no confidence in Poots’s nomination for First Minister, Paul Givan, and therefore no confidence in Poots either.

TheScreamingEagles

Gardenwalker said:

MikeSmithson said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

Good to see he's resisted the temptation to pump & dump.
Noble, even.

I think there is a 35%+ chance of the LDs doing it. The fact that the Tories have not got a proper GOTV op in place is a bug gamble for them

Why have they not got a proper GOTV operation?

Too busy fighting the woke in the studios of GBTV?

I reckon it is two factors.

1) It is a safe Tory seat, in the past you really don't have to work to get a Tory elected here

2) Activists went oop North for B&S.

contrarian

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On topic, I believe if the conservatives lose C & A and fail in B & S it will be a well deserved wake up

Wake up to what?

I keep hearing the thumping for the tories would shake them up....shake them up to do what?

Be even greener than they are? be even more cautious than they are? extend restrictions even longer than they are?

because that is what labour and the lib dems are offering. Am I missing something?

ping

rkrkrk said:

Reckon we could see 500+ admitted to hospital/day by end of June.

Quite possible if current trends continue.

Very glad the PM isn’t listening to pb’s armchair epidemidiots

Mortimer

Gardenwalker said:

MikeSmithson said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

Good to see he's resisted the temptation to pump & dump.
Noble, even.

I think there is a 35%+ chance of the LDs doing it. The fact that the Tories have not got a proper GOTV op in place is a bug gamble for them

Why have they not got a proper GOTV operation?

Too busy fighting the woke in the studios of GBTV?

GOTV doesn't tend to be used in landslide seats....because it rarely needs to be.

Labour would have had the same problems in seats like Hartlepool.

Nigelb

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

To put it politely, f8ck that sh*t.

Pulpstar

fox327 said:

rottenborough said:

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris was right.

PB was wrong.

Early days. Early days.

One thing that this seems to prove is that it is impossible to keep people under lockdown, wearing masks, etc., for ever. These things are not normal human behaviour, and normal behaviour creeps back after a while. The only real defense that we have in the long run against COVID is vaccination.

Yes a combination of vaccination, infection and death

TOPPING

Stuartinromford said:

CarlottaVance said:

ooooh...

Schools were closed for the first week of June, so cases stopped rising for the second week of June. Then schools reopened, and it looks like cases might have started rising again a week later.

It will be fine- really it will be- but we're still in the edges of the woods.

To add to @Ishmael_Z's anecdata, neice and nephew say there is Covid everywhere at Uni.

rottenborough

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.

I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.

It's not just the lack of health experience but that she's been fucking useless at every senior job she's held. A supermarket manager is about her level. Probably.

She's a shoe-in then.

Nigelb

MikeSmithson said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drinks are on OGH if the Lib Dems win.

Good to see he's resisted the temptation to pump & dump.
Noble, even.

I think there is a 35%+ chance of the LDs doing it. The fact that the Tories have not got a proper GOTV op in place is a bug gamble for them

You may well be right, and I hope you are.
I have to admit the temptation to bank profits got the better of me.

For which, again, thanks.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Some semblance of competence.

Lib Dems and competence do not fit to be fair

ping

I’m on Belgium @ 2.12

turbotubbs

TOPPING said:

Stuartinromford said:

CarlottaVance said:

ooooh...

Schools were closed for the first week of June, so cases stopped rising for the second week of June. Then schools reopened, and it looks like cases might have started rising again a week later.

It will be fine- really it will be- but we're still in the edges of the woods.

To add to @Ishmael_Z's anecdata, neice and nephew say there is Covid everywhere at Uni.

As someone who works at a university, I don’t understand this as the students will mainly be away from campus now.

rottenborough

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
16m
33.7%. Little change from yesterday. Potentially importantly, though, no further fall. Might be slightly distorted by the big artificial jump in Scotland. Tomorrow's print is the key one.

Big_G_NorthWales

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On topic, I believe if the conservatives lose C & A and fail in B & S it will be a well deserved wake up

Wake up to what?

I keep hearing the thumping for the tories would shake them up....shake them up to do what?

Be even greener than they are? be even more cautious than they are? extend restrictions even longer than they are?

because that is what labour and the lib dems are offering. Am I missing something?

Constant large opinion poll leads imbue complacency

Gardenwalker

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Some semblance of competence.

Lib Dems and competence do not fit to be fair

There’s an argument to make that from a purely technocratic perspective, the LDs completely outshone their Tory peers in the 2010-2015 administration.

Admittedly, you are in love with Boris, so competence is not importance to you.

contrarian

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Some semblance of competence.

Lib Dems and competence do not fit to be fair

But seriously, what policy differences would anybody like to see?

TOPPING

theProle said:

FPT

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

Casino_Royale said:

English Heritage says Enid Blyton was shit, xenophobic and racist.

Is there any of our heritage these ideologues actually like?

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/enid-blyton-racist-english-heritage-b1867577.html

She was certainly shit. It's the snobbery which sticks in my mind after 50 years - constant sneers at "day trippers" meaning common people. "Five go mad in Dorset" nailed it.

She wasn't shit. She wrote some of the best children's books ever written.

Apart from people saying "her vocabulary was limited" and "many of her stories had similar structure" I don't think I've ever seen any of this criticism substantiated. So, I'll put it down to snobbery in turn by her critics.

She said, quite rightly, she wasn't interested in the opinion of anyone over the age of 12, and rightly so.

Odd that she felt compelled to make that point, don't you think? There's lots of genuinely great children's lit - Milne, Potter, Lewis - and there's flabbily written drivel.

Ransome's Pigeon Post is a masterpiece of construction. As close to perfectly written as a novel (for children) can be.

As a kid I read Blyton, Ransome, Antony Buckeridge, CS Lewis, Richmal Crompton and others (as well as more adult fiction - e.g. John Buchanan, C. S. Forester).
I read the Blyton stuff younger (I started reading them independently aged around 3-4) - it's vocab is easier and the plot lines simple, and it uses only really very direct slapstick. I was a teenager myself, with a younger brother before I really got the humour in "Robert", William Brown's older brother for instance.

I think Blyton was very good for getting me into reading, and developing my reading abilities (I figured out for myself what lashings of ginger beer might be!). As an adult, it's dire, but she wasn't writing for adults.

The genius of CS Lewis, Ransome, Crompton et-al is that they wrote books which are enjoyable for both kids and adults. They have well drawn characters, who are developed through the books (less so with William, those books are more a series of clever vignettes). Blyton suffers terribly from very wooden characters. Interestingly, Pigeon Post was easily my favourite of the Ransome novels, although that might be because I was a rather like "Dick" (the geeky scientific lad), and he is very much one of the book's heroes.

As for the fact that all of them are to some extent rather un-PC - so what. Far more important to develop a love of reading, and an ability to use one's imagination (which is a lot of what reading is) than worrying about the odd rather 1950s attitude being on display.

Adored the CS Lewis books, absolutely gobsmacked years afterwards to learn that they were a religious allegory. Of all things.

rottenborough

Colin Angus
@VictimOfMaths
·
12m
New NHS admissions data by trust has just landed.

A week ago admissions in Bolton were falling, but since then they've risen very sharply. Admissions also rising fast in Salford, but falling in a few other parts of Manchester.

RochdalePioneers

Sandpit said:

Not Frankie Dettori’s day.

They've appointed him the new Spurs manager?

londonpubman

ping said:

rkrkrk said:

Reckon we could see 500+ admitted to hospital/day by end of June.

Quite possible if current trends continue.

Very glad the PM isn’t listening to pb’s armchair epidemidiots

The 4 week delay to Stage 4 was implemented for a reason.

General caution and realism needs to be exercised while we see the situation develop over the next few weeks.

Even if we can have Stage 4 on 19 July - which we all hope for - people need to understand that it is not the end and that some measures eg masks on public transport will need to remain for some time.

Casino_Royale

What time do we expect a declaration in C&A?

contrarian

Big_G_NorthWales said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On topic, I believe if the conservatives lose C & A and fail in B & S it will be a well deserved wake up

Wake up to what?

I keep hearing the thumping for the tories would shake them up....shake them up to do what?

Be even greener than they are? be even more cautious than they are? extend restrictions even longer than they are?

because that is what labour and the lib dems are offering. Am I missing something?

Constant large opinion poll leads imbue complacency

Complacency on what?

TOPPING

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris, SKS, SAGE and the public were right.

PB was wrong.

Nah bollocks. The NHS will be fine.

Gardenwalker

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On topic, I believe if the conservatives lose C & A and fail in B & S it will be a well deserved wake up

Wake up to what?

I keep hearing the thumping for the tories would shake them up....shake them up to do what?

Be even greener than they are? be even more cautious than they are? extend restrictions even longer than they are?

because that is what labour and the lib dems are offering. Am I missing something?

The Lib Dems voted against the last lot of restrictions and did not vote at all last night.

turbotubbs

ping said:

rkrkrk said:

Reckon we could see 500+ admitted to hospital/day by end of June.

Quite possible if current trends continue.

Very glad the PM isn’t listening to pb’s armchair epidemidiots

Admissions is not the best criteria, it really is more about in hospital now. Lots of reports that those attending hospital are less sick than in previous waves, mainly as they are younger. We are also looking at one days jump which has only just increased the wow rate change. I am sure cases are going to keep increasing, and possibly for quite a while, but the effects of increased cases will be nothing like before.

Anabobazina

rottenborough said:

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
16m
33.7%. Little change from yesterday. Potentially importantly, though, no further fall. Might be slightly distorted by the big artificial jump in Scotland. Tomorrow's print is the key one.

I saw that. What does he mean by 'artificial jump' in Scotland?

CarlottaVance

The government has formally asked the EU to postpone the chilled meats grace period until 30th September

It is yet to receive a response

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1405549292895485953?s=21

rcs1000

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Progress.

Gardenwalker

I’m presuming the Cons will win as there is insufficient pant-shitting on here from the hardened Tories.

Either that or they have disappeared to pant-shit in privacy and silence.

Casino_Royale

If the LDs do win C&A I expect two things:

(1) Mass panic at CCHQ and amongst Tory MPs more broadly, and a big overreaction
(2) Lots of tediously predictable takes (possibly for years) about the "Blue Wall" in the South

Oh and (3) a bit of crowing by those on here who were bullish about the Lib Dems chances, but that'd be fair enough.

rcs1000

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.

I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.

It's not just the lack of health experience but that she's been fucking useless at every senior job she's held. A supermarket manager is about her level. Probably.

Don't you believe in equal opportunities? Why should talent, hard work or integrity be prerequisites for success?

contrarian

turbotubbs said:

ping said:

rkrkrk said:

Reckon we could see 500+ admitted to hospital/day by end of June.

Quite possible if current trends continue.

Very glad the PM isn’t listening to pb’s armchair epidemidiots

Admissions is not the best criteria, it really is more about in hospital now. Lots of reports that those attending hospital are less sick than in previous waves, mainly as they are younger. We are also looking at one days jump which has only just increased the wow rate change. I am sure cases are going to keep increasing, and possibly for quite a while, but the effects of increased cases will be nothing like before.

What are the numbers in hospital...?

londonpubman

Gardenwalker said:

I’m presuming the Cons will win as there is insufficient pant-shitting on here from the hardened Tories.

Either that or they have disappeared to pant-shit in privacy and silence.

I am not that bothered - as it's a by election - however I remain confident of a CON win

Maybe by around 10%?

rottenborough

turbotubbs said:

TOPPING said:

Stuartinromford said:

CarlottaVance said:

ooooh...

Schools were closed for the first week of June, so cases stopped rising for the second week of June. Then schools reopened, and it looks like cases might have started rising again a week later.

It will be fine- really it will be- but we're still in the edges of the woods.

To add to @Ishmael_Z's anecdata, neice and nephew say there is Covid everywhere at Uni.

As someone who works at a university, I don’t understand this as the students will mainly be away from campus now.

I would have thought every undergrad would have had it last autumn frankly.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

What time do we expect a declaration in C&A?

the result [is[ expected in the early hours of Friday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

rcs1000

As an aside if the LibDems win today, and the Greens lose their deposit, then they will be the real losers.

The Greens need to throw everything at these byelections if they want up supplant the LibDems and become the "third choice".

contrarian

rcs1000 said:

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Progress.

Progress on COVID?

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

Cyclefree said:

FFS! Dido Harding has applied for the job as Head of NHS England.

No doubt she will get it as a massive f*u to all of those of us who think Track and Not Trace was a homogenous mess.

I'm mean no real health management experience so obviously no.1 on their list.

It's not just the lack of health experience but that she's been fucking useless at every senior job she's held. A supermarket manager is about her level. Probably.

Don't you believe in equal opportunities? Why should talent, hard work or integrity be prerequisites for success?

Indeed, that's the view of the civil service.

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Some semblance of competence.

Lib Dems and competence do not fit to be fair

To be fairer they don't get much opportunity to demonstrate governance competence. Political competence maybe, which is mixed

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

What time do we expect a declaration in C&A?

the result [is[ expected in the early hours of Friday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

Thanks. Not sure I can be arsed staying up though.

It'll be a check the phone in the middle of the night when I go for a pee job.

rcs1000

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

contrarian said:

Cicero said:

Hearing the Lib Dems are doing well, though it is admittedly a big ask. While "its only a by election", there is a lot of home counties anger out there against the Tories. The political world next year could look a lot different than it does today.

What are they angry about in the home counties that the Liberals would do differently?

Some semblance of competence.

Lib Dems and competence do not fit to be fair

But seriously, what policy differences would anybody like to see?

A hyper-focus on localism would be the consequence. Which is bad in some ways (system vs local optima) and good in others (people having an MP who cares about local issues).

rottenborough

TOPPING said:

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris, SKS, SAGE and the public were right.

PB was wrong.

Nah bollocks. The NHS will be fine.

The Warwick model shows ≈ 250 admission in England by this date. 1000 by 3rd July.

And... 70K + tests by 17th June (today)

turbotubbs

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

ping said:

rkrkrk said:

Reckon we could see 500+ admitted to hospital/day by end of June.

Quite possible if current trends continue.

Very glad the PM isn’t listening to pb’s armchair epidemidiots

Admissions is not the best criteria, it really is more about in hospital now. Lots of reports that those attending hospital are less sick than in previous waves, mainly as they are younger. We are also looking at one days jump which has only just increased the wow rate change. I am sure cases are going to keep increasing, and possibly for quite a while, but the effects of increased cases will be nothing like before.

What are the numbers in hospital...?

The dashboard (not always the most up to date) has 1,227 across the entire UK. England is currently 1,122 up from a low of 730 a few weeks ago.

rcs1000

londonpubman said:

Gardenwalker said:

I’m presuming the Cons will win as there is insufficient pant-shitting on here from the hardened Tories.

Either that or they have disappeared to pant-shit in privacy and silence.

I am not that bothered - as it's a by election - however I remain confident of a CON win

Maybe by around 10%?

That seems a little on the high side. My gut is that the Conservatives will be in the high 40s, and the LibDems in the low 40s.

ThomasNashe

Casino_Royale said:

If the LDs do win C&A I expect two things:

(1) Mass panic at CCHQ and amongst Tory MPs more broadly, and a big overreaction
(2) Lots of tediously predictable takes (possibly for years) about the "Blue Wall" in the South

Oh and (3) a bit of crowing by those on here who were bullish about the Lib Dems chances, but that'd be fair enough.

After an absolutely dire last decade or so, it’d be a serious fillip for the LDs. A swathe of seats SW of London would suddenly look very winnable.

Ratters

Anabobazina said:

Not so good on the covid positive tests today. The w-o-w rate has inflected up slightly.

The big question is whether this is a blip in the downwards trend in the w-o-w rate, or will growth rates remaining stubbornly high? Too early to tell conclusively yet, but we shouldn't overanalyse a single data point:

CarlottaVance

Edwin Poots is "on his way out" just 5 weeks after being elected DUP leader

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1405553310032175110?s=20

TOPPING

rottenborough said:

TOPPING said:

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris, SKS, SAGE and the public were right.

PB was wrong.

Nah bollocks. The NHS will be fine.

The Warwick model shows ≈ 250 admission in England by this date. 1000 by 3rd July.

And... 70K + tests by 17th June (today)

"Our liberties cannot be used to manage capacity in the NHS."

Get in Stevo.

TheScreamingEagles

TOPPING said:

ping said:

11k cases
222 admissions

Boris, SKS, SAGE and the public were right.

PB was wrong.

Nah bollocks. The NHS will be fine.

I take it you've missed the news about Dido Harding then?