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If uniform national swing (UNS) applies then the Tories will make it three by-election wins out of t

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    Sure, and I get that that, and I sympathise. That's shit. But it's not relevant to the effects on weddings in the UK is it? So maybe calling me a 'moron' was a teensy bit unfair?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,993
    edited June 15
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.
    I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.

    In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.

    If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.
    I hope you're right. But where I live, cases have risen from virtually nothing to 250 in the last week, and you'd struggle to find many folk from the Indian diaspora, or multi-generational households, down here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420
    HYUFD said:

    Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'

    38% About right
    26% Too soon
    19% Too late

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=20

    Sad that so many are so coususe, but I assume that will be that many believe the government scientists know best, when cases start dropping, they may change there minds.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156

    North West continues to look as if it's flattened out.

    It's a massive "if", but if the rate by which the cases growth is increasing continues to drop the way it has been, we could max out around the 21st of June on reported cases, which would be a colossal coincidence.
    (At 7000-7500 cases per day for England; 8500-9000 cases per day for the entire UK).
    That would equate to something in the region of 250-300 hospitalisations per day for England (300-350 for the UK) and a maximum hospital occupancy of around 1800-2200 for England; 2000-2500 for the UK.

    Totally a SWAG figure, if that, but I'd take that right now for the peak.

    On those numbers, one possible scenario is we face a series of 'socially distanced' weddings, with bridesmaids in facemasks, and no dancing, with positive tests falling from a very low base.

    Nice day for a white wedding!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
    Quite - just what is different in this case ......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don’t know what GB News are doing, but posting 360p videos on YouTube, complete with the stutters of their own broadcast website it was being ripped from, is a major screwup.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=aSdqKfUdmHs

    I’m available to help them, remotely, for a bargain £1k a day.

    It is bewildering.
    Over the lockdown I have learned, from a standing start, as a reasonably technophobic 50+ yo, to do the cameras and sound mixing of religious services broadcast live over several platforms and recorded for later use. All interactive with real time chat facility.
    It is quite laughably easy for one person with almost no knowledge these days.
    Yes, absolutely. I’ve set up the same for dozens of executives forced to work from home in the last 18 months. They all wanted their WFH rooms to look like Joe Rogan’s podcast studio - well maybe not the red one!

    Actual broadcast TV is an order of magnitude more difficult, but GBN seem to have really missed the mark technically.

    They need to go live 1080p on YouTube, yesterday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,480

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.
    I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.

    In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.

    If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.
    I hope you're right. But where I live, cases have risen from virtually nothing to 250 in the last week, and you'd struggle to find many folk from the Indian diaspora, or multi-generational households, down here.
    Are you in Cornwall ?

    Cases up 1250% in St Ives is of interest. G7 superspreader event ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jacob Rees-Mogg warns Cabinet colleagues against 'never-ending' restrictions.... will they listen?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don’t know what GB News are doing, but posting 360p videos on YouTube, complete with the stutters of their own broadcast website it was being ripped from, is a major screwup.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=aSdqKfUdmHs

    I’m available to help them, remotely, for a bargain £1k a day.

    It is bewildering.
    Over the lockdown I have learned, from a standing start, as a reasonably technophobic 50+ yo, to do the cameras and sound mixing of religious services broadcast live over several platforms and recorded for later use. All interactive with real time chat facility.
    It is quite laughably easy for one person with almost no knowledge these days.
    The lack of glossiness is quite refreshing, paradoxically.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    No worries about COVID in Hungary...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,993
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.
    I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.

    In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.

    If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.
    I hope you're right. But where I live, cases have risen from virtually nothing to 250 in the last week, and you'd struggle to find many folk from the Indian diaspora, or multi-generational households, down here.
    Are you in Cornwall ?

    Cases up 1250% in St Ives is of interest. G7 superspreader event ?
    No, Brighton. Could be a delayed effect of a manic Bank Holiday, perhaps.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'

    38% About right
    26% Too soon
    19% Too late

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=20

    Sad that so many are so coususe, but I assume that will be that many believe the government scientists know best, when cases start dropping, they may change there minds.
    There is an absolute axiomatic obsession with 'cases' positive tests. So you are possibly right about that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    North West figures are excellent.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
    Quite - just what is different in this case ......
    Those who skirt the OFCOM impartiality guidelines to the left, are sh!t-scared of someone skirting those same guidelines to the right.

    A large mob of lefties decided, before GBN ever broadcast anything, that they were going to be a British “Fox News”, totally partial and uncritical of the government. Which, of course, has turned out to be bollocks. They’re screaming abuse at the government today.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    Floater said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg warns Cabinet colleagues against 'never-ending' restrictions.... will they listen?

    JRM has talked a lot before about collective cabinet responsibility and even backbench loyalty. That he thinks you have to really pick your battles. If not over this then what?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    I totally understand his concern: Spain has also lagged a lot of its peers for vaccine rollout.

    But it's also pretty much Pfizer only now, and is doing 1.25% of its adult population a day now. @felix is unlucky to have gotten AZN first, which means he's stuck with a big dosing gap, while his younger peers will be getting Pfizer.

    I suspect Spain will have a modest wave in the tourist hotspots, but don't forget that tourist season is still about a month away, and any growth will hit a wall of vaccinations.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    edited June 15
    Alistair said:

    North West figures are excellent.

    How do you look at a single region's data?

    EDIT: Sorry just found it!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited June 15
    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
    Quite - just what is different in this case ......
    Statement from Kopparberguk

    Thanks for bringing this to our attention. We want to make it clear to everyone that our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent. Kopparberg is a drink for everyone and we have immediately suspended our ads from this channel pending further review of its content

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don’t know what GB News are doing, but posting 360p videos on YouTube, complete with the stutters of their own broadcast website it was being ripped from, is a major screwup.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=aSdqKfUdmHs

    I’m available to help them, remotely, for a bargain £1k a day.

    It is bewildering.
    Over the lockdown I have learned, from a standing start, as a reasonably technophobic 50+ yo, to do the cameras and sound mixing of religious services broadcast live over several platforms and recorded for later use. All interactive with real time chat facility.
    It is quite laughably easy for one person with almost no knowledge these days.
    The lack of glossiness is quite refreshing, paradoxically.
    You've seen my work then? :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    Alistair said:

    North West figures are excellent.

    So if the worst case scenario is that the rest of the country goes through the same kind of wave, we'll be ok?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Alistair said:

    North West figures are excellent.

    How do you look at a single region's data?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North West

    Drop downs at the top of the page.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Edinburgh figures are still fucked mind.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    Alistair said:

    Edinburgh figures are still fucked mind.

    Quality leadership from the devolved administration
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,480
    tlg86 said:

    No worries about COVID in Hungary...

    Anyone spotted Meeks in the crowd ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.
    I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.

    In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.

    If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.
    I hope you're right. But where I live, cases have risen from virtually nothing to 250 in the last week, and you'd struggle to find many folk from the Indian diaspora, or multi-generational households, down here.
    Are you in Cornwall ?

    Cases up 1250% in St Ives is of interest. G7 superspreader event ?
    No, Brighton. Could be a delayed effect of a manic Bank Holiday, perhaps.
    You can check local authority data on genomes here:

    https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineage=B.1.617.2&latitude=53.604521&longitude=-2.090426&zoom=5.10&date=2021-06-05&uncertainty=1&lambda_type=area&area=E06000043

    In Brighton & Hove Alpha is flat, Delta taking off
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    North West figures are excellent.

    How do you look at a single region's data?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North West

    Drop downs at the top of the page.
    Yes, sorry, I since found it. Interesting.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    edited June 15
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    Says Behavioural scientist and well established media expert on epidemiology Susan Michie
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    This Portugeuse kit ought to be at The Hague for war crimes.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,269
    edited June 15
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited June 15
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
    Quite - just what is different in this case ......
    Statement from Kopparberguk

    Thanks for bringing this to our attention. We want to make it clear to everyone that our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent. Kopparberg is a drink for everyone and we have immediately suspended our ads from this channel pending further review of its content

    "Kopparberg is a drink for everyone"

    Just not the viewers of GBNews...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,480
    Hungary not afraid to test out the sinopharm vax.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
    Quite - just what is different in this case ......
    Those who skirt the OFCOM impartiality guidelines to the left, are sh!t-scared of someone skirting those same guidelines to the right.

    A large mob of lefties decided, before GBN ever broadcast anything, that they were going to be a British “Fox News”, totally partial and uncritical of the government. Which, of course, has turned out to be bollocks. They’re screaming abuse at the government today.
    Didn't you know Tory governments should only be attacked from the left. They aren't locking down hard enough.

    To imagine someone saying they're locking down too hard - the horrors.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.

    What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?
    It’s an organised Twitter pile-on, from a group called - ironically - Stop Funding Hate.

    Has been planned for weeks, to immediately target anyone and everyone associated with GB News.

    Obviously, Farage has never appeared on ITV, Channel 4 or the BBC.
    Quite - just what is different in this case ......
    Statement from Kopparberguk

    Thanks for bringing this to our attention. We want to make it clear to everyone that our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent. Kopparberg is a drink for everyone and we have immediately suspended our ads from this channel pending further review of its content

    Kopparberg clearly haven’t heard of OFCOM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,480
    "our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent" wait what GB News has free advertising ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    How is your confident, emphatic prediction of 10,000 daily positive tests by last Friday working out for you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited June 15
    Pulpstar said:

    "our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent" wait what GB News has free advertising ?

    No they will have block booked a load of advertising through some 3rd party...it is how brands have ended up having their ads run on unsavoury websites.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    edited June 15
    Portugal vs Hungary

    I've backed the most likely result of 1-0 to Portugal at 4.8 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.175538868
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Pulpstar said:

    Hungary not afraid to test out the sinopharm vax.

    Sinopharm is the okay one. Sinovac is the total dud.
    Pfizer is brilliant and AZ fantastic, on the same scale.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    They’re not really mandatory now, it’s by popular consent. Because all you need to do is say you’re exempt and that’s that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,993

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.
    I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.

    In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.

    If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.
    I hope you're right. But where I live, cases have risen from virtually nothing to 250 in the last week, and you'd struggle to find many folk from the Indian diaspora, or multi-generational households, down here.
    Are you in Cornwall ?

    Cases up 1250% in St Ives is of interest. G7 superspreader event ?
    No, Brighton. Could be a delayed effect of a manic Bank Holiday, perhaps.
    You can check local authority data on genomes here:

    https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineage=B.1.617.2&latitude=53.604521&longitude=-2.090426&zoom=5.10&date=2021-06-05&uncertainty=1&lambda_type=area&area=E06000043

    In Brighton & Hove Alpha is flat, Delta taking off
    Thanks. That does suggest that Delta is taking off miles away from where it was originally seeded. I just don't think it's confined to multicultural/mixed-generation type communities - it's clearly spreading far and wide, but hopefully without fatal consequences.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    Susan Michie needs relieving of her position pretty quickly. What sort of a world does she want us to live in?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited June 15
    The reaction from some, you would think GBNews had Tommy Robinson presenting a prime time slot for 3hrs a day....

    The bit I saw of it, it seemed amateur hour with too much focus on wokery based stories. Seems like they are competing with Talk Radio for that niche.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    East of England data

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=East of England

    I see nothing to get excited about there at all
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hungary not afraid to test out the sinopharm vax.

    Sinopharm is the okay one. Sinovac is the total dud.
    Pfizer is brilliant and AZ fantastic, on the same scale.
    And Moderna is the absolute dog bollocks....who they only give to the most important, good looking, intelligent individuals...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    Susan Michie needs relieving of her position pretty quickly. What sort of a world does she want us to live in?
    Who could have guessed a lifelong out and out communist might be keen on state control and not keen on civil liberties?
    It does raise a serious point of how people like this get to be in such influential positions.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.
    I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.

    In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.

    If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.
    I hope you're right. But where I live, cases have risen from virtually nothing to 250 in the last week, and you'd struggle to find many folk from the Indian diaspora, or multi-generational households, down here.
    Are you in Cornwall ?

    Cases up 1250% in St Ives is of interest. G7 superspreader event ?
    No, Brighton. Could be a delayed effect of a manic Bank Holiday, perhaps.
    You can check local authority data on genomes here:

    https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineage=B.1.617.2&latitude=53.604521&longitude=-2.090426&zoom=5.10&date=2021-06-05&uncertainty=1&lambda_type=area&area=E06000043

    In Brighton & Hove Alpha is flat, Delta taking off
    Thanks. That does suggest that Delta is taking off miles away from where it was originally seeded. I just don't think it's confined to multicultural/mixed-generation type communities - it's clearly spreading far and wide, but hopefully without fatal consequences.
    “Rebellious” Indian youngsters
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Floater said:
    I am shocked - Birdwatchers are called Birders?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629

    Looks like somebody is having a nice time...

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1404818021965873156

    Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if he bumped into a PBer who also happened to be there?
    Byron, the transsexual actor from Wimbledon?
    Or was it LadyG, the sapphic newt painter?
    Byronic
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826

    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?

    What would happen? It wouldn't make any difference.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    I may be missing something here - but if I read the Kopparberg thread correctly, it was initially someone tweeting them congratulating them for advertising on GB news which led to this.
    Or something. I may be missing some layers of irony or nuance.
    https://twitter.com/KopparbergUK/status/1404465568497950723
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    Andy_JS said:

    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?

    What would happen? It wouldn't make any difference.
    Nothing would happen then? We'd keep ploughing on with restrictions?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    edited June 15
    Andy_JS said:

    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?

    What would happen? It wouldn't make any difference.
    Fairly sure they will be falling.
    You can only tell for sure retrospectively. But I reckon in six days' time it'll be looking fairly likely that we're on our way back down again, and in thirteen days' time it will be obvious that the peak passed well before the 21st. All the hardest hit authorities will be well past their respective peaks by next week, and the less-hard-hit will be showing no signs of following anything like the same trajectory.

    And it will make not the slightest bit of difference. Other justifications for further and longer lockdown will be found.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    Looks like somebody is having a nice time...

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1404818021965873156

    Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if he bumped into a PBer who also happened to be there?
    Byron, the transsexual actor from Wimbledon?
    Or was it LadyG, the sapphic newt painter?
    Byronic
    I’m sure there was a leftie in there at some point to sow confusion
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609

    Looks like somebody is having a nice time...

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1404818021965873156

    Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if he bumped into a PBer who also happened to be there?
    Byron, the transsexual actor from Wimbledon?
    Or was it LadyG, the sapphic newt painter?
    Byronic
    Ah yes.

    There was also someone who lasted about two posts. Had an innocuous name like “Colin” or something. Guess he wasn’t a fully worked out persona.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Labour civil war, over the definition and use of the word “woman”.

    How the left eats itself, part 124.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2021/06/14/starmers-disastrous-pride/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Cookie said:

    I may be missing something here - but if I read the Kopparberg thread correctly, it was initially someone tweeting them congratulating them for advertising on GB news which led to this.
    Or something. I may be missing some layers of irony or nuance.
    https://twitter.com/KopparbergUK/status/1404465568497950723

    Hardly congratulating them ......
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    lol now that is madness, opening up fully before 65+ are fully vaxxed. It also shows just how well our rollout is doing compared to the EU despite the recent PR disaster.
    It is worrying - luckily I live in an area with exceptionally few cases right now but we do get a lot of Spanish tourists in July and August - and clearly there are many hundreds of thousands in the same position as me - perhaps bridezilla Anabobazine thinks we should all be 'checking our privilege'.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493

    Andy_JS said:

    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?

    What would happen? It wouldn't make any difference.
    Nothing would happen then? We'd keep ploughing on with restrictions?
    I'm about 60% sure now that restrictions are an end, not a means. So yes. Probably.]

    I will be happy and relieved to be proved wrong, but I think the fight is already lost.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    edited June 15
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.
    Give him a bit of slack - it’s one particular wedding. Sometimes you have to allow for people to feel extremely strongly about things close to them. Like cyclefree (no offence intended, or taken I hope CF...)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    lol now that is madness, opening up fully before 65+ are fully vaxxed. It also shows just how well our rollout is doing compared to the EU despite the recent PR disaster.
    It is worrying - luckily I live in an area with exceptionally few cases right now but we do get a lot of Spanish tourists in July and August - and clearly there are many hundreds of thousands in the same position as me - perhaps bridezilla Anabobazine thinks we should all be 'checking our privilege'.
    You seemed to be commenting on the situation in the UK, which is irrelevant to you, hence my response. As I have said, I have every sympathy with your position but weddings in the UK don't affect you in Spain!
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    I totally understand his concern: Spain has also lagged a lot of its peers for vaccine rollout.

    But it's also pretty much Pfizer only now, and is doing 1.25% of its adult population a day now. @felix is unlucky to have gotten AZN first, which means he's stuck with a big dosing gap, while his younger peers will be getting Pfizer.

    I suspect Spain will have a modest wave in the tourist hotspots, but don't forget that tourist season is still about a month away, and any growth will hit a wall of vaccinations.
    Ironically my partner - 15 years younger gets his second Pfizer tomorrow! To be fair I'm not overly worried given the stats where I live but there are many thousands who are in greater danger.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,269

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    How is your confident, emphatic prediction of 10,000 daily positive tests by last Friday working out for you?
    Don't count your chickens just yet old boy...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.

    Given it's the only change of note forthcoming on 21 June, it's the key issue to discuss. It's hardly trivial – it affects 50,000 weddings. Absolutely stupid rules over 'social distancing' are wrecking them. My anger is not with you personally, but a general point about people supporting restrictions that have no impact on them personally.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    I totally understand his concern: Spain has also lagged a lot of its peers for vaccine rollout.

    But it's also pretty much Pfizer only now, and is doing 1.25% of its adult population a day now. @felix is unlucky to have gotten AZN first, which means he's stuck with a big dosing gap, while his younger peers will be getting Pfizer.

    I suspect Spain will have a modest wave in the tourist hotspots, but don't forget that tourist season is still about a month away, and any growth will hit a wall of vaccinations.
    Ironically my partner - 15 years younger gets his second Pfizer tomorrow! To be fair I'm not overly worried given the stats where I live but there are many thousands who are in greater danger.
    Spain has a reputation for a well run health system, and has not (historically) has the degree of vaccine scepticism as France; yet it seems to be lagging quite badly. Do you know why?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Sandpit said:

    Labour civil war, over the definition and use of the word “woman”.

    How the left eats itself, part 124.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2021/06/14/starmers-disastrous-pride/

    And yet we were told that Starmer was highly intelligent, forensic and a unifier - they forgot the bit about pig ignorant when it comes to basic politics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    How is your confident, emphatic prediction of 10,000 daily positive tests by last Friday working out for you?
    Don't count your chickens just yet old boy...
    I'm not counting anything other than your very confident, yet completely wrong, predictions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    edited June 15
    "Ripples
    @we_make_ripples

    We're now up to FOUR advertisers who have pulled their ads from GB News:

    Kopparberg
    Grolsch
    Nivea
    Open University

    Keep writing to their remaining advertisers!"

    https://twitter.com/we_make_ripples/status/1404796956841545736
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420

    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?

    If my prediction that cases are fulling on or before 21 June (By specimen date and mid point of 7 day average) is not correct, then I will fully and profoundly apologise, and give OGH £100 as penance.

    Or if others wish to suggest alternatives, buy the first round at the first Post pandemic PB Gettogether perhaps?

    (as its by specimen date will need to leave it a week to confirm the trend.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    What's that you say? You can't possibly wait until "The British General Election of 2019" by Ford, Bale, Jennings and Surridge comes out in the autumn, and you want a four-page #GE2019 summary by one of the authors right here, right now? OK, then......

    The 2019 general election left Labour a long, long way behind. Indeed, it might have finished even further behind had a few more Leave voters in seats it managed to keep hold of not plumped for the Brexit Party rather than the Conservatives. Given Nigel Farage’s departure from politics, this is not likely to be an option available to those voters next time round, which could be worth between ten and twenty additional seats for the Conservatives. The Conservatives are also likely to be the main beneficiaries of the forthcoming parliamentary boundary review aimed at equalising the size of constituencies. Consequently, barring a severe economic downturn, or a highly-negative retrospective verdict on Johnson’s handling of the pandemic, or else a messy break-up of the UK occasioned by a vote for Scottish independence, it is very difficult to imagine Labour – even if it fights a far better campaign than it did in 2019 – winning in 2023 or 2024.


    http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/london/18014.pdf
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.

    Given it's the only change of note forthcoming on 21 June, it's the key issue to discuss. It's hardly trivial – it affects 50,000 weddings. Absolutely stupid rules over 'social distancing' are wrecking them. My anger is not with you personally, but a general point about people supporting restrictions that have no impact on them personally.
    it is one of the best things about democracy. It allows choice by those with enough detachment to be rational.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Labour civil war, over the definition and use of the word “woman”.

    How the left eats itself, part 124.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2021/06/14/starmers-disastrous-pride/

    And yet we were told that Starmer was highly intelligent, forensic and a unifier - they forgot the bit about pig ignorant when it comes to basic politics.
    When I follow the Labour uncut link I also get a lot of advertising about kitchen knives (I have been contemplating buying one of the expensive Japanese ones). Clearly explicable, but amusing.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,691
    edited June 15

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.

    Given it's the only change of note forthcoming on 21 June, it's the key issue to discuss. It's hardly trivial – it affects 50,000 weddings. Absolutely stupid rules over 'social distancing' are wrecking them. My anger is not with you personally, but a general point about people supporting restrictions that have no impact on them personally.
    Social distancing in pubs? Restaurants? Performance venues? Sports stadia? There's at least 50,000 extra people who would love to cram into Wembley on Friday.

    Weddings are not the be all and end all here. Just one of many things affected, and I agree with you on this part, probably unnecessarily.


    Disclaimer: I had 6 people present at my wedding and I went back to work in the afternoon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.

    Given it's the only change of note forthcoming on 21 June, it's the key issue to discuss. It's hardly trivial – it affects 50,000 weddings. Absolutely stupid rules over 'social distancing' are wrecking them. My anger is not with you personally, but a general point about people supporting restrictions that have no impact on them personally.
    Social distancing in pubs? Restaurants? Performance venues? Sports stadia? There's at least 50,000 extra people who would love to cram into Wembley on Friday.

    Weddings are not the be all and end all here. Just one of many things affected, and I agree with you on this part, probably unnecessarily.


    Disclaimer: I had 6 people present at my wedding and I went back to work in the afternoon.
    Wimbledon and Wembley are seriously lobbying for full outdoor crowds. Silverstone are close to a 150k sellout for the F1 on 18th July.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.

    If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.
    I totally understand his concern: Spain has also lagged a lot of its peers for vaccine rollout.

    But it's also pretty much Pfizer only now, and is doing 1.25% of its adult population a day now. @felix is unlucky to have gotten AZN first, which means he's stuck with a big dosing gap, while his younger peers will be getting Pfizer.

    I suspect Spain will have a modest wave in the tourist hotspots, but don't forget that tourist season is still about a month away, and any growth will hit a wall of vaccinations.
    Ironically my partner - 15 years younger gets his second Pfizer tomorrow! To be fair I'm not overly worried given the stats where I live but there are many thousands who are in greater danger.
    Spain has a reputation for a well run health system, and has not (historically) has the degree of vaccine scepticism as France; yet it seems to be lagging quite badly. Do you know why?
    It is going quite quickly now but they got the sequencing badly muddled with all of the AZT scare stories. First they gave in to under 50s and not the oldies. Then they changed tack and gave it only to 60-65s. Then late in the day they gave it to 65-70s. There is no Spanish word for clusterfuck as such but I quite like 'puta perdida' because of the sonofabitch connotation!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    Pulpstar said:

    "our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent" wait what GB News has free advertising ?

    No, they hired an agency to sort this stuff out I'm guessing.

    I'm also guessing GB News offered below market rates to advertise on their channels for the first month or so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    Dull half. CR 7 comedy miss the highlight.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,914
    If anything I'd have thought the advertisers on GB News might be more put off by the slightly weird way they letterbox the picture for adverts so they can continue to scroll the ticker, rather than put the ad full screen.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Interesting graphic from the Telegraph, who appear to be rapidly breaking off their support of the government...

    That actually really annoyed me. They actually showed projections going into the future as well as the current data. And the Telegraph conveniently ignored the start of the second and first waves, which looked awfully similar.
    Not sure about Telegraph breaking off support. They have featured a steady stream of commentators and opinion pieces on why lockdown isn't working and so on. See their Planet Normal podcast for example.
    Talk Radio and the Telegraph have been the biggest pushers of anti-lockdown / faster opening of any of the mainstream media.

    The mail seems to veer from lock me down harder and faster, to 10 mins later, running pieces saying why are the government locking down so hard, what about my uman rights.
    It's a shame there haven't been more lockdown-critical voices from the left. Zoe Williams at the Guardian is the sole outrider, although Sadiq Khan has moved sharply against it in recent times.
    Sadiq Khan. His opinion is worth about a row of beans..
  • pingping Posts: 1,415
    edited June 15
    BigRich said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Ripples
    @we_make_ripples

    We're now up to FOUR advertisers who have pulled their ads from GB News:

    Kopparberg
    Grolsch
    Nivea
    Open University

    Keep writing to their remaining advertisers!"

    https://twitter.com/we_make_ripples/status/1404796956841545736

    The open University, as a government funded organisation should not be pulling advertisements as a political action.

    The others are free to do as they chose, just as I am free to avide buying there goods.

    However it is both revelling how much the 'left' fears an alternative to the BBC, and sad at the power they have to influence advertisers.
    The OU?!!!

    Terrible targeting. They’re wasting their money…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887

    Pulpstar said:

    "our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent" wait what GB News has free advertising ?

    No they will have block booked a load of advertising through some 3rd party...it is how brands have ended up having their ads run on unsavoury websites.
    Yup, my friend had this, she's in charge of sponsorship and advertising and was asked by a concerned customer why they were advertising on pornographic websites.

    Never did she expect to have with revenge porn in her day job.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,691
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.

    Given it's the only change of note forthcoming on 21 June, it's the key issue to discuss. It's hardly trivial – it affects 50,000 weddings. Absolutely stupid rules over 'social distancing' are wrecking them. My anger is not with you personally, but a general point about people supporting restrictions that have no impact on them personally.
    Social distancing in pubs? Restaurants? Performance venues? Sports stadia? There's at least 50,000 extra people who would love to cram into Wembley on Friday.

    Weddings are not the be all and end all here. Just one of many things affected, and I agree with you on this part, probably unnecessarily.


    Disclaimer: I had 6 people present at my wedding and I went back to work in the afternoon.
    Wimbledon and Wembley are seriously lobbying for full outdoor crowds. Silverstone are close to a 150k sellout for the F1 on 18th July.
    Silverstone probably the most sensible of those as not many use public transport and a lot of the venue is outside, even if everyone does get stuck in traffic jams...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,269

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    How is your confident, emphatic prediction of 10,000 daily positive tests by last Friday working out for you?
    Don't count your chickens just yet old boy...
    I'm not counting anything other than your very confident, yet completely wrong, predictions.
    If cases end up being less than my predictions then fine it's a good outcome.

    What I do want to see is that the reopening process is realistic and appropriate given the clear continuing threat of the Delta variant. Hopefully the additional 4 weeks will be sufficient to make the necessary further progress on vaccines etc, and when we get there no-one will be more pleased than me to see full reopening.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    dixiedean said:

    Dull half. CR 7 comedy miss the highlight.

    Always said he was overrated.

    He's the Iberian Kieron Dyer.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    edited June 15

    Pulpstar said:

    "our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent" wait what GB News has free advertising ?

    No they will have block booked a load of advertising through some 3rd party...it is how brands have ended up having their ads run on unsavoury websites.
    Yup, my friend had this, she's in charge of sponsorship and advertising and was asked by a concerned customer why they were advertising on pornographic websites.

    Never did she expect to have with revenge porn in her day job.
    Isn’t this the old issue of the advertising targeting the individual not the websites?

    Also the reverse when people start getting adverts for porn on respectable websites
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Interesting graphic from the Telegraph, who appear to be rapidly breaking off their support of the government...

    That actually really annoyed me. They actually showed projections going into the future as well as the current data. And the Telegraph conveniently ignored the start of the second and first waves, which looked awfully similar.
    Not sure about Telegraph breaking off support. They have featured a steady stream of commentators and opinion pieces on why lockdown isn't working and so on. See their Planet Normal podcast for example.
    Talk Radio and the Telegraph have been the biggest pushers of anti-lockdown / faster opening of any of the mainstream media.

    The mail seems to veer from lock me down harder and faster, to 10 mins later, running pieces saying why are the government locking down so hard, what about my uman rights.
    It's a shame there haven't been more lockdown-critical voices from the left. Zoe Williams at the Guardian is the sole outrider, although Sadiq Khan has moved sharply against it in recent times.
    Sadiq Khan. His opinion is worth about a row of beans..
    Yes, that's right. He's only the Mayor of London, the man with the second-biggest direct mandate in Europe.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 993
    moonshine said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    They’re not really mandatory now, it’s by popular consent. Because all you need to do is say you’re exempt and that’s that.
    Yeah, I have been on public transport (bus to my work place) twice a day more or less every single day since Covid began. I can only think of a couple of times when a driver has made a comment about mask wearing to someone not wearing one. They just don't want to deal with the hassle and I don't blame them.

    If you say you are exempt they never question it.

    Makes me laugh seeing more and more people using masks as chin warmers, masks full down but resting under their chin. Even with the older populace who are most vulnerable.

    If they get rid of masks they get rid, honestly I think for a while I will keep wearing my ones for a while especially during certain times of the year like winter. I wear them all day at work, don't bother me one bit.


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.

    Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.

    It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...

    Just noise?
    Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.

    Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
    If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.
    Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...
    God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.
    I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?
    I do not appreciate being told to 'check my privilege' and I was unaware there was a ban on commenting from other countries. You'd better tell OGH junior. Your wittering on about brides day in and day out is enough to try the patience of a saint and that I do not claim to be.

    Given it's the only change of note forthcoming on 21 June, it's the key issue to discuss. It's hardly trivial – it affects 50,000 weddings. Absolutely stupid rules over 'social distancing' are wrecking them. My anger is not with you personally, but a general point about people supporting restrictions that have no impact on them personally.
    Social distancing in pubs? Restaurants? Performance venues? Sports stadia? There's at least 50,000 extra people who would love to cram into Wembley on Friday.

    Weddings are not the be all and end all here. Just one of many things affected, and I agree with you on this part, probably unnecessarily.


    Disclaimer: I had 6 people present at my wedding and I went back to work in the afternoon.
    Wimbledon and Wembley are seriously lobbying for full outdoor crowds. Silverstone are close to a 150k sellout for the F1 on 18th July.
    Silverstone probably the most sensible of those as not many use public transport and a lot of the venue is outside, even if everyone does get stuck in traffic jams...
    However given the traffic you will take every infected person in a car and make a car-full of them.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sage scientist: Don’t rule out more delays
    Susan Michie believes lockdown might not end in July — and facemasks could be here forever
    BY FREDDIE SAYERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/susan-michie-dont-rule-out-more-delays/


    "Why third jabs are inevitable
    The variants are going to keep on circulating without another vaccine
    BY TOM CHIVERS"

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/why-third-jabs-are-inevitable/

    A third jab, or a pill of some sort, certainly is inevitable.
    You can expect mandatory masks on public transport and in shops until Spring 2022 minimum.

    How is your confident, emphatic prediction of 10,000 daily positive tests by last Friday working out for you?
    Don't count your chickens just yet old boy...
    I'm not counting anything other than your very confident, yet completely wrong, predictions.
    If cases end up being less than my predictions then fine it's a good outcome.

    What I do want to see is that the reopening process is realistic and appropriate given the clear continuing threat of the Delta variant. Hopefully the additional 4 weeks will be sufficient to make the necessary further progress on vaccines etc, and when we get there no-one will be more pleased than me to see full reopening.

    I'm not for a moment suggesting you want it to go on! I am merely noting your very emphatic, confident predictions that have proved wrong. You shouldn't be so sure of yourself, maybe...?
  • VompVomp Posts: 36
    edited June 15
    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'

    38% About right
    26% Too soon
    19% Too late

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=20

    Sad that so many are so coususe, but I assume that will be that many believe the government scientists know best, when cases start dropping, they may change there minds.
    "When will all legal limits on social contact be removed?"
    Prices at Smarkets:
    June 75
    July 1.7
    August or later 2.12

    I wouldn't bet on or against any of those, but "not 19 July" would be tempting at the right price.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,156
    BigRich said:

    There is a tantalising prospect that, at this rate, week-on-week positive tests might actually start to fall by 21 June.

    Which would be simultaneously comedic, ironic and tragic. What would happen if that were to occur?

    Of course, it might not happen. Probably won't. But the numbers, as they are, suggest that it's not an outlandish prospect that @BigRich could prove correct – that Boris should simply have delayed 72 hours, and opened up on Thursday 24 June, leaving the first weekend free...

    What would happen if they started falling on or around 21 June?

    If my prediction that cases are fulling on or before 21 June (By specimen date and mid point of 7 day average) is not correct, then I will fully and profoundly apologise, and give OGH £100 as penance.

    Or if others wish to suggest alternatives, buy the first round at the first Post pandemic PB Gettogether perhaps?

    (as its by specimen date will need to leave it a week to confirm the trend.)
    Fair play to you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Vomp said:

    Vomp said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of vaccination has fallen from the pathetic to the derisory. As this is the plain and simple reason why Freedom day has been postponed is it possible that either the media or the Opposition might ask a question about it? What has gone wrong and what can we do about it?

    The plain & simple reason is the delta variant.
    Is it? If we’d had a higher rate of vaccination, we wouldn’t have delayed. Or so we are told. The delay is to second jab, remember?
    Exactly. And the delta variant will either be here in July or more likely have been replaced by something even more infectious. It is the level of immunity from vaccination that is key.
    What is the estimated % vaccination that will give herd immunity? A figure of 95% is quoted for measles which is far more infectious than SARS.
    The problem is working out the *anti-transmission* effectiveness of the vaccines

    We know they are very very effective against hospitalisation and death. They are less so against transmitting the virus.
    I thought herd immunity meant
    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'

    38% About right
    26% Too soon
    19% Too late

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=20

    Sad that so many are so coususe, but I assume that will be that many believe the government scientists know best, when cases start dropping, they may change there minds.
    "When will all legal limits on social contact be removed?"
    Prices at Smarkets:
    June 75
    July 1.7
    August or later 2.12

    I wouldn't bet on or against any of those, but "not 19 July" would be tempting at the right price.
    If they’re still in place in June 2075 I will be very surprised. I would have expected a Revolution before about 2026.
  • pingping Posts: 1,415
    edited June 15
    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "our ad ran on this channel without our knowledge or consent" wait what GB News has free advertising ?

    No they will have block booked a load of advertising through some 3rd party...it is how brands have ended up having their ads run on unsavoury websites.
    Yup, my friend had this, she's in charge of sponsorship and advertising and was asked by a concerned customer why they were advertising on pornographic websites.

    Never did she expect to have with revenge porn in her day job.
    Isn’t this the old issue of the advertising targeting the individual not the websites?
    It’s also the fundamental problem for the GB news format as it currently exists.

    The ad money doesn’t cover the costs of producing the content.

    GB news would have had a fighting chance 20 years ago. Not now.

    Bust within a year, I recon

    Unless they can rapidly reinvent themselves as a kind of unilads outfit, pumping clips out to Facebook and getting millions of likes.
This discussion has been closed.