If uniform national swing (UNS) applies then the Tories will make it three by-election wins out of t
Comments
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Agree, because by elections have their own individual rules. UNS does not apply. If and when it does apply then the header's thesis is mysteriously true: by some zeitgeist people from South Holland to Walton all move in step with each other.Andy_JS said:Sorry to disagree with the header but I don't think there's going to be much of a relationship between how the Tories do in Chesham&Amersham and Batley&Spen. C&A is the third least deprived seat in the country and B&S is at the other end of the spectrum.
BTW while I have a sense that the Tories may well have a nose in front at B and S, because of Galloway, I can't get a sense of C and A at all. Which for me makes the LDs worth a small punt given the odds.2 -
Indeed. What would this site be without uninformed views?Cookie said:
Thanks Sandpit. Your uninformed view is as good as (and more interesting than) mine!Sandpit said:
My uninformed view is that they’re a few weeks behind the UK, but with a much lower vaccination rate and more encouragement to travel and take holidays. August could be utter carnage. Same goes for USA.Cookie said:FPT - what are people's views on what is happening with the Delta variant in Europe? Is it there yet and just not being unearthed because they're not doing the sequencing? If so, are they three weeks behind a surge in cases? Is there comparative slowness to vaccinate going to be a problem? Or is Delta a) overblown or b) going to be cancelled out by vaccinations and seasonality?
My view is the latter. But it is not an informed view.
(Actually, as a group we are seriously over-informed, against the general population. We joke about being uninformed while spending all day informing ourselves. There’s even several people here sharing what they’re being paid to research, in real time).3 -
I think most EU countries lack the big Indian/Pakistani communities that the UK has, this means the level of "seeding" from India is going to be dramatically lower, and there is less room for community transmission. Don't forget that most of the growth in cases of Delta have happened in places which combine large Asian communities with high population density. Europe - while it has a decent sized Indian diaspora in aggregate - lacks places like Bolton, Blackburn or Bedford.Sandpit said:
My uninformed view is that they’re a few weeks behind the UK, but with a much lower vaccination rate and more encouragement to travel and take holidays. August could be utter carnage. Same goes for USA.Cookie said:FPT - what are people's views on what is happening with the Delta variant in Europe? Is it there yet and just not being unearthed because they're not doing the sequencing? If so, are they three weeks behind a surge in cases? Is there comparative slowness to vaccinate going to be a problem? Or is Delta a) overblown or b) going to be cancelled out by vaccinations and seasonality?
My view is the latter. But it is not an informed view.
I also think there's a tendency to miss how much the EU is catching up with vaccines. They distributed something like 35m doses last week, almost all of which were Pfizer. That's 10% of their adult population in a week. Most EU countries are now comfortably above 50% for first doses, and at about 25% for fully vaccinated. That's where the US was about seven weeks ago.
The final issue is that most EU countries don't seem to be in thrall to zero Covid. They are reducing restrictions as people get jabbed, without waiting for cases to get close to zero. And if they are able to keep up 35m jabs a week, then that's fine: they'll get to herd immunity long before health services are overrun.5 -
It's a shame there haven't been more lockdown-critical voices from the left. Zoe Williams at the Guardian is the sole outrider, although Sadiq Khan has moved sharply against it in recent times.FrancisUrquhart said:
Talk Radio and the Telegraph have been the biggest pushers of anti-lockdown / faster opening of any of the mainstream media.rottenborough said:
Not sure about Telegraph breaking off support. They have featured a steady stream of commentators and opinion pieces on why lockdown isn't working and so on. See their Planet Normal podcast for example.RobD said:
That actually really annoyed me. They actually showed projections going into the future as well as the current data. And the Telegraph conveniently ignored the start of the second and first waves, which looked awfully similar.Sandpit said:Interesting graphic from the Telegraph, who appear to be rapidly breaking off their support of the government...
The mail seems to veer from lock me down harder and faster, to 10 mins later, running pieces saying why are the government locking down so hard, what about my uman rights.
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I think we are in a situation now where a lot of the police do not agree with whats going onSandyRentool said:
If they'd used the wrong pronoun they would have been in the back of the van faster than you can say "self-identify".isam said:I just saw the Nicholas Watt footage& have to agree with @david_herdson - what were the dozens of police doing just standing there? Were they waiting for him to be assaulted before they stepped in? Crazy
Can people just walk up to you in the street and aggressively hurl abuse at you, right before a policeman’s eyes, and not be apprehended or warned?1 -
Let’s see who’s right in a month or so. I hope it’s you.rcs1000 said:
I think most EU countries lack the big Indian/Pakistani communities that the UK has, this means the level of "seeding" from India is going to be dramatically lower, and there is less room for community transmission. Don't forget that most of the growth in cases of Delta have happened in places which combine large Asian communities with high population density. Europe - while it has a decent sized Indian diaspora in aggregate - lacks places like Bolton, Blackburn or Bedford.Sandpit said:
My uninformed view is that they’re a few weeks behind the UK, but with a much lower vaccination rate and more encouragement to travel and take holidays. August could be utter carnage. Same goes for USA.Cookie said:FPT - what are people's views on what is happening with the Delta variant in Europe? Is it there yet and just not being unearthed because they're not doing the sequencing? If so, are they three weeks behind a surge in cases? Is there comparative slowness to vaccinate going to be a problem? Or is Delta a) overblown or b) going to be cancelled out by vaccinations and seasonality?
My view is the latter. But it is not an informed view.
I also think there's a tendency to miss how much the EU is catching up with vaccines. They distributed something like 35m doses last week, almost all of which were Pfizer. That's 10% of their adult population in a week. Most EU countries are now comfortably above 50% for first doses, and at about 25% for fully vaccinated. That's where the US was about seven weeks ago.
The final issue is that most EU countries don't seem to be in thrall to zero Covid. They are reducing restrictions as people get jabbed, without waiting for cases to get close to zero. And if they are able to keep up 35m jabs a week, then that's fine: they'll get to herd immunity long before health services are overrun.2 -
lower uptake amongst younger age groups...frankly who can blame them at the momentrkrkrk said:
The plain & simple reason is the delta variant.DavidL said:The level of vaccination has fallen from the pathetic to the derisory. As this is the plain and simple reason why Freedom day has been postponed is it possible that either the media or the Opposition might ask a question about it? What has gone wrong and what can we do about it?
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The problem is the "debate" the media facilitate is normally between the zero covidians and herd immunity / IFR is only 0.000001% extremists...Anabobazina said:
It's a shame there haven't been more lockdown-critical voices from the left. Zoe Williams at the Guardian is the sole outrider, although Sadiq Khan has moved sharply against it in recent times.FrancisUrquhart said:
Talk Radio and the Telegraph have been the biggest pushers of anti-lockdown / faster opening of any of the mainstream media.rottenborough said:
Not sure about Telegraph breaking off support. They have featured a steady stream of commentators and opinion pieces on why lockdown isn't working and so on. See their Planet Normal podcast for example.RobD said:
That actually really annoyed me. They actually showed projections going into the future as well as the current data. And the Telegraph conveniently ignored the start of the second and first waves, which looked awfully similar.Sandpit said:Interesting graphic from the Telegraph, who appear to be rapidly breaking off their support of the government...
The mail seems to veer from lock me down harder and faster, to 10 mins later, running pieces saying why are the government locking down so hard, what about my uman rights.
No room for the nuanced. Covid is real, is bad, we can't do nothing, but are the models right and if they aren't how does that change things....and it is going to be in some form for basically ever, so we need a strategy going forward.1 -
7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.2 -
7,673 cases, 10 deaths, 184 admissions.0
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The 'noise' continues in the positive tests numbers...
Be back later to discuss this 'noise'...0 -
1
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Think we need to reverse stage 3 quickly otherwise we could have 15 deaths in a couple of weeks...and it could be your grannyFrancisUrquhart said:7,673 cases, 10 deaths, 184 admissions.
3 -
Just rebooked my second jab.
WAS 16/07
NOW 03/0710 -
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?0 -
The modellers have lashed themselves to their delta mast. If/when the massive summer surge doesn't happen - what then? Time to say enough?maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
0 -
Boris is hiding the bodies again....alex_ said:0 -
Philip, we have done 41.6m first doses which is said to be just under 80% of the adult population. That means we have about 10m first doses to go, not including children. At the rate we are currently going with first doses that is going to take a lot more than a month. We have just under 30m second doses which is 56% of the population so we have about 23.2m to go there, something like 33.2m all together. At our rolling average of 3.2m that would take just over 10 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. Supply is no longer the issue, the system is running out of arms to jab.FrancisUrquhart said:
Just do it in the middle of the night, nobody is going to be rebooking then.SandyRentool said:
That's the problem with the system. You can't take a peek to see what the options are before you cancel.Gardenwalker said:
Worried I’ll lose my slot, or be sent to some remote wildnerness...like Zone 4 or something.turbotubbs said:
Try and see.Gardenwalker said:
I’m on Moderna, second jab mid-July.Mortimer said:
I've told all my mates in their 30s - so far all have been able to bring it forward.maaarsh said:
On the basis of this decided to take the plunge and am now 4 weeks earlier than my previous 2nd dose - many thanksMortimer said:Managed to rebook my jab for 9 weeks from the first dose, today. Thrilled!
Is it worth my trying to re-book?
Hence I stuck with my 11-week, after work slot.
Also, i found huge availability, that wasn't there 2 weeks ago. It was as if the system was trying to give me every possible option to get done. 2 weeks ago, it was my local hub or a 2hr drive and it was you have to come on a particular day.
When i rebooked yesterday, it was literally come any day, any time, and if you don't want to local hub, here is a load of other close options.
8 weeks ago very few first jabs were done, plus we're already (unofficially) doing first jabs on all over 18s and will officially be doing them by the end of the week.
If there's more supply than there are eligible people to be jabbed then there'll be plenty of availability but a slowdown in jabs done.
It is not accurate that we are running out of arms. If we are running out of willing arms at this stage we have a serious problem.1 -
Well offtopic, and into Pedants’ Corner, the Daily Mail’s sub-editor thinks that the plural of “Director-General” is “Director-Generals”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9687155/Martin-Bashir-Ex-BBC-director-generals-Lord-face-grilling-MPs-Diana-Panorama-interview.html0 -
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.1 -
Interesting hypothetical.rottenborough said:
The modellers have lashed themselves to their delta mast. If/when the massive summer surge doesn't happen - what then? Time to say enough?maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Is it possible to bring 19 July forward?0 -
Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though. If cases are good tommorow we're beyond noise.0
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Boris said we could revert in 2 weeks, but it was unlikely (because he's not numerically bright enough to read the models for himself and spot the bullshit).Anabobazina said:
Interesting hypothetical.rottenborough said:
The modellers have lashed themselves to their delta mast. If/when the massive summer surge doesn't happen - what then? Time to say enough?maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Is it possible to bring 19 July forward?
But if we're still sat at cases below 10k in 2 weeks then the logic of the announcement is we unlock immediately.2 -
Numbers today 26% higher than those reported on last Tuesday.Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though.
If today's figure is repeated tomorrow, it would be an increase of just 2%.
At this rate, the Government's proposals aren't going to make it to 21 June let alone 19 July0 -
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.0 -
Looks like somebody is having a nice time...
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/14048180219658731562 -
The weekly rate of increase has dropped from 66% to 38% over the past 7 days. Today's figure is up 26% on last Tuesday's so that rate of increase should fall further.Anabobazina said:The 'noise' continues in the positive tests numbers...
Be back later to discuss this 'noise'...2 -
It's a seven-day, week-on-week figure, so the Wednesday effect should be ironed out...Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though. If cases are good tommorow we're beyond noise.
0 -
It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.3 -
Sorry but its frankly ridiculous to assume that 100% of the population is going to be vaccinated, there's not a nation on the planet that has or will achieve that.DavidL said:
Philip, we have done 41.6m first doses which is said to be just under 80% of the adult population. That means we have about 10m first doses to go, not including children. At the rate we are currently going with first doses that is going to take a lot more than a month. We have just under 30m second doses which is 56% of the population so we have about 23.2m to go there, something like 33.2m all together. At our rolling average of 3.2m that would take just over 10 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. Supply is no longer the issue, the system is running out of arms to jab.FrancisUrquhart said:
Just do it in the middle of the night, nobody is going to be rebooking then.SandyRentool said:
That's the problem with the system. You can't take a peek to see what the options are before you cancel.Gardenwalker said:
Worried I’ll lose my slot, or be sent to some remote wildnerness...like Zone 4 or something.turbotubbs said:
Try and see.Gardenwalker said:
I’m on Moderna, second jab mid-July.Mortimer said:
I've told all my mates in their 30s - so far all have been able to bring it forward.maaarsh said:
On the basis of this decided to take the plunge and am now 4 weeks earlier than my previous 2nd dose - many thanksMortimer said:Managed to rebook my jab for 9 weeks from the first dose, today. Thrilled!
Is it worth my trying to re-book?
Hence I stuck with my 11-week, after work slot.
Also, i found huge availability, that wasn't there 2 weeks ago. It was as if the system was trying to give me every possible option to get done. 2 weeks ago, it was my local hub or a 2hr drive and it was you have to come on a particular day.
When i rebooked yesterday, it was literally come any day, any time, and if you don't want to local hub, here is a load of other close options.
8 weeks ago very few first jabs were done, plus we're already (unofficially) doing first jabs on all over 18s and will officially be doing them by the end of the week.
If there's more supply than there are eligible people to be jabbed then there'll be plenty of availability but a slowdown in jabs done.
It is not accurate that we are running out of arms. If we are running out of willing arms at this stage we have a serious problem.
For one thing our population is possibly lower than the official estimates, bearing in mind reports of close to a million people leaving the country and not returning in the 16 months they're not going to be vaccinated.
For another not everyone is going to agree to be vaccinated. That is what it is, we will need to do what we can to encourage them but its on them to take responsibility for their own health.
For another some of those who will get the vaccine won't get it the day they're eligible to do so whether it be due to nervousness or waiting for a time that's convenient for them.
Next of course I said that later this week it will be available to all over 18s (which is what the NHS boss is saying), that's not the same as saying its the case today.
Finally most nations around the world would look on with envy about an 80% takeup rate.
PS as for second doses many second doses will never be given (eg because the recipient died from naturall causes after the first), or because people react to side effects by deciding not to bother with the second - and of course there's currently an 8 week gap between first and eligibility for the second. Anyone who's been jabbed with the first within the last eight weeks isn't eligible for the second currently. I expect the 8 week gap to progressively shrink over coming weeks.1 -
Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)7 -
yes cases up 26% Tuesday compared to last Tuesday but also testing up.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Numbers today 26% higher than those reported on last Tuesday.Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though.
If today's figure is repeated tomorrow, it would be an increase of just 2%.
Last Tuesday: 727,274
Today: 930,123
increase: 202,849
or as a percentage 27.89%
So if all tests where equally likely to find a positive case then, this would suggest a drop! now that's not likely to be the case fully, as the extra test where I believe the mass Asemantic testing in schools, collage and university's,
But I stand by my prediction that cases, by specimen date, and mid point of the 7 day average, will peak on or before 21 June, i.e. opening day.1 -
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.0 -
Last tuesday reported was 6048, last wednesday 7540; tuesday before that 3165 -> 4330
Tuesday to wednesday is where the big jumps have tended to happen by reported date. Today is 7673 I expect tommorow will be north of 8k, hopefully not by too much.0 -
First sensible post I've seen from him.FrancisUrquhart said:Looks like somebody is having a nice time...
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1404818021965873156
Although might be being a tad unfair. Burnham on Crouch at high tide is a lovely place.2 -
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️1 -
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.1 -
Pulpstar said:
Last tuesday reported was 6048, last wednesday 7540; tuesday before that 3165 -> 4330
Tuesday to wednesday is where the big jumps have tended to happen by reported date. Today is 7673 I expect tommorow will be north of 8k, hopefully not by too much.
It doesn't matter as the rate is a week on week figure (not day of week vs same day last week)0 -
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️0 -
BBC News Channel: talking endlessly about Martin Bashir. Sorry, I'm not interested.4
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Yes, agree. Suspect ONS data will end up showing we've peaked already.BigRich said:
yes cases up 26% Tuesday compared to last Tuesday but also testing up.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Numbers today 26% higher than those reported on last Tuesday.Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though.
If today's figure is repeated tomorrow, it would be an increase of just 2%.
Last Tuesday: 727,274
Today: 930,123
increase: 202,849
or as a percentage 27.89%
So if all tests where equally likely to find a positive case then, this would suggest a drop! now that's not likely to be the case fully, as the extra test where I believe the mass Asemantic testing in schools, collage and university's,
But I stand by my prediction that cases, by specimen date, and mid point of the 7 day average, will peak on or before 21 June, i.e. opening day.1 -
People don't seem to grasp that the positive cases rate is week on week.
The weekday is irrelevant.
The inflation rate is falling pretty fast.0 -
Hoping for a press conference where Boris realises he has been played by SAGE (and worse, Scotland is going to open up first - giving Sturgeon the bragging rights....)TheWhiteRabbit said:
Numbers today 26% higher than those reported on last Tuesday.Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though.
If today's figure is repeated tomorrow, it would be an increase of just 2%.
At this rate, the Government's proposals aren't going to make it to 21 June let alone 19 July
"Aw, fuck it, as you were - 21st Jun is a go lads....knock yourselves out!"
Admittedly, not a high hope....1 -
No, but they have predicted a peek of 500 a day, even with this extension to the lockdown, (and 700 a day without it)RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️0 -
I love pluralising compound nouns. Reminds me of this, which is one of my favourite SMBCs.Sandpit said:Well offtopic, and into Pedants’ Corner, the Daily Mail’s sub-editor thinks that the plural of “Director-General” is “Director-Generals”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9687155/Martin-Bashir-Ex-BBC-director-generals-Lord-face-grilling-MPs-Diana-Panorama-interview.html
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/plural1 -
ONS is a bit behind so probably not. But the seven day graph shows a clearly peaking/flattening curveCookie said:
Yes, agree. Suspect ONS data will end up showing we've peaked already.BigRich said:
yes cases up 26% Tuesday compared to last Tuesday but also testing up.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Numbers today 26% higher than those reported on last Tuesday.Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though.
If today's figure is repeated tomorrow, it would be an increase of just 2%.
Last Tuesday: 727,274
Today: 930,123
increase: 202,849
or as a percentage 27.89%
So if all tests where equally likely to find a positive case then, this would suggest a drop! now that's not likely to be the case fully, as the extra test where I believe the mass Asemantic testing in schools, collage and university's,
But I stand by my prediction that cases, by specimen date, and mid point of the 7 day average, will peak on or before 21 June, i.e. opening day.0 -
No, it's 250/day for one model, 500/day for another, assuming no change in the unlocking plan:BigRich said:
No, but they have predicted a peek of 500 a day, even with this extension to the lockdown, (and 700 a day without it)RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993510/S1287_SPI-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_step_4.pdf0 -
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
EDIT: This nonsense is from Page 13 of the Warwick University model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf1 -
Not in the papers released by the SAGE committee:Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993510/S1287_SPI-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_step_4.pdf0 -
God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.Anabobazina said:
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.0 -
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️1 -
Look at Figure 2, that's the default assumption, which matches the government papers.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
EDIT: This nonsense is from Page 13 of the Warwick University model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf0 -
Could of and should of gone for a 48 hours extension, initially from the 21 to the 23thd June and then evaluated fully on 21st June weather to fully reopen 2 days later, allowing us to look at 2 weeks data without a half term in it and as a result been belter able to make predictions. the 2 day extension would still allow all the planed week end events to happen, weddings, concerts, music, theatres, and the busiest time for night clubs and so on. and would have allowed the Furlong scheme to start to disappear at the end of the month.MarqueeMark said:
Hoping for a press conference where Boris realises he has been played by SAGE (and worse, Scotland is going to open up first - giving Sturgeon the bragging rights....)TheWhiteRabbit said:
Numbers today 26% higher than those reported on last Tuesday.Pulpstar said:Cases heading south on a tuesday is positive. Wednesdays tend to provide a stern test for the vaccine though.
If today's figure is repeated tomorrow, it would be an increase of just 2%.
At this rate, the Government's proposals aren't going to make it to 21 June let alone 19 July
"Aw, fuck it, as you were - 21st Jun is a go lads....knock yourselves out!"
Admittedly, not a high hope....1 -
Those of us in the Red Wall would rather have a pie & peas supper.FrancisUrquhart said:Looks like somebody is having a nice time...
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/14048180219658731560 -
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a model that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️0 -
I think that's a bit unfair. If the BBC didn't cover the Bashir story properly and fully, the BBC's critics in the press, the HoC and on here would have a field day and the BBC would be accused of sweeping the scandal under the carpet. They're overdoing it to avoid the charge that they don't recognise how serious it is, agreed, but given the Select Committee hearing today they were bound to cover their backs.Sandpit said:
It’s the BBC’s favourite discussion topic - themselves.Andy_JS said:BBC News Channel: talking endlessly about Martin Bashir. Sorry, I'm not interested.
0 -
I would love - love - love for Covid to have “peaked” but my cursory reading is that whole “alpha” is collapsing, “delta” is coming up fast on its tail.
Today, alpha’s collapse is informing the overall pattern, but shortly delta will drive that pattern back into exponential growth.
I admit I am NOT looking at the numbers at all closely.0 -
I'm not misleading them.RobD said:
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a mode that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
You said "even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day" but that's not true.
Yes the central assumption is hundreds per day, which is in itself ridiculous, but worst case scenarios being considered are the ones I quoted. They're seriously considering a worst case scenario where deaths go higher than the January peak and upto 3000 per day in the shading.
That's what is being considered "cautious".0 -
https://english.elpais.com/spain/2021-06-07/closed-hotels-and-deserted-streets-the-unrecognizable-face-of-spains-tourism-industry.html?ssm=FB_CM_EN&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3nb53cgcKm2R4FDYndThk3IAcP-1_ug0HPP4lSTZ2yvim1ufsN9DwjteM#Echobox=1623243490
Maybe a quiet summer for some of the Costas this year again.0 -
Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.0
-
I don’t know what GB News are doing, but posting 360p videos on YouTube, complete with the stutters of their own broadcast website it was being ripped from, is a major screwup.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=aSdqKfUdmHs
I’m available to help them, remotely, for a bargain £1k a day.1 -
Even a figure of 9 - 9,500 would not be that bad, showing a continued reduction in the rate of growth.Pulpstar said:Last tuesday reported was 6048, last wednesday 7540; tuesday before that 3165 -> 4330
Tuesday to wednesday is where the big jumps have tended to happen by reported date. Today is 7673 I expect tommorow will be north of 8k, hopefully not by too much.1 -
Why would you consider a default assumption to be "the worst case scenarios".RobD said:
Look at Figure 2, that's the default assumption, which matches the government papers.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
EDIT: This nonsense is from Page 13 of the Warwick University model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf
The worst case scenarios are the cautious scenarios being quoted and that's thousands per day dead. Preposterous.0 -
I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.DavidL said:
It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.
If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.0 -
As far as I can tell it is an exercise to try to place uncertainties on their prediction, which is commonly done by adjusting the unknown/poorly-known variables in your model. That doesn't change the fact that this isn't their prediction, it's just the upper bounds of what they think is credible. Their central prediction is around 500/day. Note how the uncertainty on this prediction doesn't go above 1k/day.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not misleading them.RobD said:
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a mode that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
You said "even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day" but that's not true.
Yes the central assumption is hundreds per day, which is in itself ridiculous, but worst case scenarios being considered are the ones I quoted. They're seriously considering a worst case scenario where deaths go higher than the January peak and upto 3000 per day in the shading.
That's what is being considered "cautious".0 -
This isn't a worry UK wise, Delta is overwhemingly dominant here, something like 99% of all cases.Gardenwalker said:I would love - love - love for Covid to have “peaked” but my cursory reading is that whole “alpha” is collapsing, “delta” is coming up fast on its tail.
Today, alpha’s collapse is informing the overall pattern, but shortly delta will drive that pattern back into exponential growth.
I admit I am NOT looking at the numbers at all closely.1 -
Anecdote report.
I had lunch in the West End today.
Restaurant was “moderately” busy - half full.
Diners seemed to be very aged and crumbly.
A year or so ago, the restaurant would have been full, and the diners would have been business-y types.1 -
Any set of models that seem to suggest no deaths (or few given the graph) by Xmas seems a bit suspect. The worst case at Xmas is definitely not near-zero deaths.RobD said:
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a mode that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
0 -
I never said it was their prediction, I said it was what they considered credible.RobD said:
As far as I can tell it is an exercise to try to place uncertainties on their prediction, which is commonly done by adjusting the unknown/poorly-known variables in your model. That doesn't change the fact that this isn't their prediction, it's just the upper bounds of what they think is credible. Their central prediction is around 500/day.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not misleading them.RobD said:
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a mode that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
You said "even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day" but that's not true.
Yes the central assumption is hundreds per day, which is in itself ridiculous, but worst case scenarios being considered are the ones I quoted. They're seriously considering a worst case scenario where deaths go higher than the January peak and upto 3000 per day in the shading.
That's what is being considered "cautious".
3000 dead per day should be well beyond the upper bounds of what is considered credible and if it isn't then maybe you should recheck your assumptions.0 -
Yes we're not heterogenous & fungible data points in an SEIR model.rcs1000 said:
I think that's spot on: if there are six of you who live in a three bedroom terrace, and one of you returned from India with Delta, then all of you will get it. And if little Ahmed went around to his friends house, then that'll be 12 people who now have Delta.DavidL said:
It seems much more likely to me that the delta variant is hitting the parameters of the unvaxxed, multigenerational households that it was seeded in and is finding spread in the more general population with their highish levels of vaccination more difficult. I certainly hope so.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
In less dense, less intergenerational, more vaccinated communities, spread is much much lower.
If tomorrow's numbers are still at the 7,500 level we can all breath an enormous sigh of relief.0 -
OK, now we are going onto semantics. I don't think you even used the word credible before. The point is that the prediction of several thousand a day is well outside the confidence interval of their prediction, and the figure you used is part of an exercise to work out what effects the different assumptions have on the final figure.Philip_Thompson said:
I never said it was their prediction, I said it was what they considered credible.
3000 dead per day should be well beyond the upper bounds of what is considered credible and if it isn't then maybe you should recheck your assumptions.0 -
Whenever the BBC are in the news, they always make it headline number one. It’s the best chance their staff have to shout about their employer in public, with no chance of themselves being in trouble for it.Northern_Al said:
I think that's a bit unfair. If the BBC didn't cover the Bashir story properly and fully, the BBC's critics in the press, the HoC and on here would have a field day and the BBC would be accused of sweeping the scandal under the carpet. They're overdoing it to avoid the charge that they don't recognise how serious it is, agreed, but given the Select Committee hearing today they were bound to cover their backs.Sandpit said:
It’s the BBC’s favourite discussion topic - themselves.Andy_JS said:BBC News Channel: talking endlessly about Martin Bashir. Sorry, I'm not interested.
0 -
Today is freedom day in California.
I think I shall leave my mask at home.
(My kids are at sleep away camp in the middle of nowhere, and one third of the way through the week the restrictions are all removed. So they'll be wearing masks for a day and half and then all discarding them.)2 -
25,000 lesbian weddings?Anabobazina said:
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.2 -
Unlikely to be much change until September at the earliest as most commuters are still WFHGardenwalker said:Anecdote report.
I had lunch in the West End today.
Restaurant was “moderately” busy - half full.
Diners seemed to be very aged and crumbly.
A year or so ago, the restaurant would have been full, and the diners would have been business-y types.0 -
Look, they are having a hard enough time predicting a few days ahead, and you want them to predict six months ahead?Omnium said:
Any set of models that seem to suggest no deaths (or few given the graph) by Xmas seems a bit suspect. The worst case at Xmas is definitely not near-zero deaths.RobD said:
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a mode that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️1 -
*Sigh*RobD said:
OK, now we are going onto semantics. I don't think you even used the word credible before. The point is that the prediction of several thousand a day is well outside the confidence interval of their prediction, and the figure you used is part of an exercise to work out what effects the different assumptions have on the final figure.Philip_Thompson said:
I never said it was their prediction, I said it was what they considered credible.
3000 dead per day should be well beyond the upper bounds of what is considered credible and if it isn't then maybe you should recheck your assumptions.
Originally I said hundreds or thousands, because their predictions range from the hundreds (central predictions) to the thousands in the worst case scenarios.
You said even in the worst case scenario they're not considering thousands dead.
I showed that they are. They're considering nearly 2000 and potentially 3000 dead per day in their worst case "cautious" models.
So yes their predictions is it will be in either hundreds or thousands. Anything else is nitpicking.0 -
Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'
38% About right
26% Too soon
19% Too late
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=201 -
No, their prediction is published in both the government document I linked, and in Figure 2 of the paper you linked. The rest of it feeds into how large the uncertainty on that prediction is, which at the upper interval is below a thousand a day.Philip_Thompson said:
*Sigh*RobD said:
OK, now we are going onto semantics. I don't think you even used the word credible before. The point is that the prediction of several thousand a day is well outside the confidence interval of their prediction, and the figure you used is part of an exercise to work out what effects the different assumptions have on the final figure.Philip_Thompson said:
I never said it was their prediction, I said it was what they considered credible.
3000 dead per day should be well beyond the upper bounds of what is considered credible and if it isn't then maybe you should recheck your assumptions.
Originally I said hundreds or thousands, because their predictions range from the hundreds (central predictions) to the thousands in the worst case scenarios.
You said even in the worst case scenario they're not considering thousands dead.
I showed that they are. They're considering nearly 2000 and potentially 3000 dead per day in their worst case "cautious" models.
So yes their predictions is it will be in either hundreds or thousands. Anything else is nitpicking.0 -
Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if he bumped into a PBer who also happened to be there?FrancisUrquhart said:Looks like somebody is having a nice time...
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/14048180219658731563 -
I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?felix said:
God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.Anabobazina said:
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.0 -
JULYHYUFD said:Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'
38% About right
26% Too soon
19% Too late
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=200 -
July I assumeHYUFD said:Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'
38% About right
26% Too soon
19% Too late
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=200 -
Byron, the transsexual actor from Wimbledon?Theuniondivvie said:
Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if he bumped into a PBer who also happened to be there?FrancisUrquhart said:Looks like somebody is having a nice time...
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1404818021965873156
Or was it LadyG, the sapphic newt painter?1 -
SandyRentool said:
25,000 lesbian weddings?Anabobazina said:
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
Nope, 50,000 weddings in the next four weeks.0 -
Yep - we will not be back in office until at the earliest - 19th SeptemberHYUFD said:
Unlikely to be much change until September at the earliest as most commuters are still WFHGardenwalker said:Anecdote report.
I had lunch in the West End today.
Restaurant was “moderately” busy - half full.
Diners seemed to be very aged and crumbly.
A year or so ago, the restaurant would have been full, and the diners would have been business-y types.1 -
I think there's still a high degree of seasonality in Covid driven I reckon by vitamin D deficiency in the winter months. People with darker skin suffer from this even in the summer in the UK - which is probably also a factor in the delta spread being initially so high.RobD said:
Look, they are having a hard enough time predicting a few days ahead, and you want them to predict six months ahead?Omnium said:
Any set of models that seem to suggest no deaths (or few given the graph) by Xmas seems a bit suspect. The worst case at Xmas is definitely not near-zero deaths.RobD said:
@Philip_Thompson is deliberately misrepresenting them. The scenario using the default assumption regarding vaccine efficacy matches the government papers I linked. These plots are from a mode that assumes a much lower efficacy.Sandpit said:
Their dashed line is optimistic, don’t they understand the concept of vaccination?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they were. This is the kind of bullshit that is in the Warwick University model. The solid black line of their "cautious" model predicts an expected death peak above the winter peak and the shading goes up to potentially 3000 deaths per day. 🤦♂️RobD said:
Even in the worst case scenarios they weren't predicting thousands a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Deaths are in green. They are down week on week.Sandpit said:
Exactly, because vaccination has broken the link to the exponential growth we saw in previous waves.Andy_Cooke said:Rate of increase continuing to slow for reported cases in England.
Very encouraging. That's six days on the trot that the increase in the sum of 7-days cases has fallen.
(For the avoidance of doubt: cases haven't fallen. The speed at which they're increasing has fallen. Second derivative stuff)
A good graph for someone to do would be “Doubling time”, the tertiary derivative.
But sure we'll be at hundreds or thousands a day within a month. 🤦♂️
I think the Gov't is a bit reluctant to push a Vit D message mind as it's a bit of a favourite of antivaxxers who think they can get away with just taking vitamin D and no vaccinations which is ridiculous.
The truth is you probably want to be both vaccinated and have good vit D levels.0 -
Interesting how many PBers – and much of the public – are in favour of restrictions that affect other people.2
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He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.Anabobazina said:
I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?felix said:
God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.Anabobazina said:
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.1 -
North West continues to look as if it's flattened out.
It's a massive "if", but if the rate by which the cases growth is increasing continues to drop the way it has been, we could max out around the 21st of June on reported cases, which would be a colossal coincidence.
(At 7000-7500 cases per day for England; 8500-9000 cases per day for the entire UK).
That would equate to something in the region of 250-300 hospitalisations per day for England (300-350 for the UK) and a maximum hospital occupancy of around 1800-2200 for England; 2000-2500 for the UK.
Totally a SWAG figure, if that, but I'd take that right now for the peak.2 -
What exactly do they have against Farage? Or is it the same as my beer-drinking acquaintances who refuse to step into a Wetherspoons because Tim Martin is a "gammon"?Floater said:Grolsch join the ban - shame I used to drink that beer - no longer.
0 -
In their central assumption yes, not their worst case assumption they're considering. The SAGE summary is the central assumption, but the other scenarios are there on the government website as what is being considered.RobD said:
No, their prediction is published in both the government document I linked, and in Figure 2 of the paper you linked. The rest of it feeds into how large the uncertainty on that prediction is, which at the upper interval is below a thousand a day.Philip_Thompson said:
*Sigh*RobD said:
OK, now we are going onto semantics. I don't think you even used the word credible before. The point is that the prediction of several thousand a day is well outside the confidence interval of their prediction, and the figure you used is part of an exercise to work out what effects the different assumptions have on the final figure.Philip_Thompson said:
I never said it was their prediction, I said it was what they considered credible.
3000 dead per day should be well beyond the upper bounds of what is considered credible and if it isn't then maybe you should recheck your assumptions.
Originally I said hundreds or thousands, because their predictions range from the hundreds (central predictions) to the thousands in the worst case scenarios.
You said even in the worst case scenario they're not considering thousands dead.
I showed that they are. They're considering nearly 2000 and potentially 3000 dead per day in their worst case "cautious" models.
So yes their predictions is it will be in either hundreds or thousands. Anything else is nitpicking.
Anyway I don't see what the point of this is anymore. My point was it is preposterous to be considering 500 dead per day as a central assumption, let alone thousands as a "cautious" one. I don't see why we need to keep going around in circles here.0 -
Yes, apologies 19th JulyBig_G_NorthWales said:
July I assumeHYUFD said:Most voters think lifting restrictions on 19th June is 'about right.'
38% About right
26% Too soon
19% Too late
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404826704242216968?s=200 -
It is bewildering.Sandpit said:I don’t know what GB News are doing, but posting 360p videos on YouTube, complete with the stutters of their own broadcast website it was being ripped from, is a major screwup.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=aSdqKfUdmHs
I’m available to help them, remotely, for a bargain £1k a day.
Over the lockdown I have learned, from a standing start, as a reasonably technophobic 50+ yo, to do the cameras and sound mixing of religious services broadcast live over several platforms and recorded for later use. All interactive with real time chat facility.
It is quite laughably easy for one person with almost no knowledge these days.3 -
Thread:
The B.1.617.2 (delta) lineage is now globally distributed. It has reached high % in some Asian countries (India, Nepal, Vietnam) and the UK (~90%), and is at ~10% in the US. Though, it remains at low % in many places, including in most of continental Europe (examples below).
1/.....
....It is thus likely we will see B.1.617.2 outbreaks and epidemics in Europe in the future. That said, given its intrinsic transmissibility advantage over B.1.1.7 (alpha) of ~40-60% estimated in the UK, it is intriguing those haven't happened yet in continental Europe.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1404829157515620356?s=200 -
Like taxes....loads of people say they are happy for higher taxes to fund x,y and z, until they realise it will include themselves paying them.Anabobazina said:Interesting how many PBers – and much of the public – are in favour of restrictions that affect other people.
4 -
lol now that is madness, opening up fully before 65+ are fully vaxxed. It also shows just how well our rollout is doing compared to the EU despite the recent PR disaster.Sandpit said:
He lives in Spain, and is two months away from his vaccine immunity - as the country indicates it’s desparate to attract millions of unvaccinated teens and twenties from all over Europe to party in nightclubs.Anabobazina said:
I thought you lived in Spain? In which case, the weddings / 21 June / 19 July consequences don't affect you?felix said:
God you are an idiot at times. I have had one AZN jab, 67 with high BP and other health issues. I must wait till the end of July for the second. So, not to put too fine a point on it, you can shove your brides where the sun doesn't shine. Moron.Anabobazina said:
Check your privilege – 50,000 brides facing 'socially distanced' weddings...felix said:
If the surge doesn't happen I'd be very happy. If a short delay to further easing helps that so much the better.maaarsh said:
Right now there are members of SAGE modelling teams praying for a case surge. The evidence from Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn is they will be disappointed.Anabobazina said:
It's a very sharp w-o-w fall in the inflation rate. Much more than I could ever hoped for. Into the 30s...maaarsh said:7th day in a row that reported cases are within 500 of 7650.
Remarkably flat considering we're told it's about to hit 250,000 in a few weeks.
Just noise?
Once can only hope there is anyone left in Government to point out the nonsense and invoke the 2 week break clause on the extension of restrictions.
If I were 67 and facing this, I’d be sh!t-scared too.2
