Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

CON lead slips to 13% with YouGov that has the Greens in third place ahead of the LDs – politicalbet

1235710

Comments

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    The rate of increase in cases has dropped a bit again today which is a straw to grab wholeheartedly. So maybe this will peak sooner rather than later.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    Yes, it's beyond ridiculous. People still don't grasp what breaking the link means – we are completely obsessed with positive tests regardless of whether people are actually sick!
    It's a rough back of the envelope calculation, but:-

    We've gone from 2,193 cases to 8,125 from 14th May to date. That's an increase of 270%.

    We've gone from 103 admissions on 10th May to 173 on 7th June. That's an increase of 72%.

    And, we've gone from 973 hospitalisations on 10th May to 1058 on 8th June. That's an increase of 9%. However, hospitalisations fell until 26th May, at 892. The increase from 26th May to 9th June is therefore 19%. Assuming that this reflects cases that arose between 16th and 30th May, case numbers over that period rose from 1,926 to 3,240, or 68%. So, it does look as though hospitalisations are rising at a far slower rate than case numbers, suggesting that the vaccination programme has been very successful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    How bad a decision was that. My gran could have seen that was going down leg and she's dead.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,244
    MattW said:

    We have a rather good new word for lawyers, from the German.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-declares-war-on-german-arrogance-eu-court-of-justice-karlsruhe/


    If Germans have a reputation abroad for lecturing others, within Germany that stereotype is often applied to members of the bar, charitably referred to as Besserwisser (know-it-alls), less charitably as Klugscheisser (shitters of wisdom)

    OK. I'll toss them a bone. Next sentence:

    That said, the lawyers often are right, which is why court decisions are accepted as sacrosanct.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    What are your mates down under saying about it all. The friend I spoke to (in Brisbane) is super frustrated at the vaccine rollout. Like a huge prison is how he described it.
    Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.

    Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,766
    isam said:

    Wishing it away isn’t going to stop it being a massive deal for a long while yet. So, sorry, I won’t leave it, you’ll have to put up with or ignore my posts about it
    OK, I'll just keep talking the piss. You carry on sounding like Nigel Farage's cod piece. Sorry, mouth piece (aka Putin's useful idiots). I think the real reason is that even the genuinely committed footsoldiers of the Brexit-con like yourself genuinely have doubts as to whether it was as pointless as it was, so you think you have to keep convincing yourselves. There there.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    OK, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.

    So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.

    1. We are reaching the point where, come June 21st, virtually all the over 50s will have been double-vaxxed and are therefore going to have as much protection as they're going to have from the virus. The risk is therefore disproportionately borne by the young (who are at very low risk of illness, and probably more likely to be harmed by the economic fallout of this disaster,) and the anti-vaxxers. I'll be a little more diplomatic than Max about the latter, but we really shouldn't shed too many tears if they get ill.

    Thus, nearly everyone who dies of Covid from hereon in is going to die of Covid at some point anyway - either because they won't (or, in a tiny number of very sad cases, can't) accept the help offered by the vaccines, or the vaccines haven't worked very well for them. These people cannot be saved by dither. They can only be granted a brief stay of execution, at huge cost to everybody else.

    2. You can't justify locking people up to give the NHS time to clear its backlog. If we do that then we'll all stay locked up for five to ten years.

    3. That only leaves the Long Covid problem. So, the calculation is: do we keep restrictions to minimise Long Covid cases, even if that means they stay for most of the rest of the year whilst the vaccination programme works its way down through young adults AND older children? Or do we say that the other non-Covid harms caused by dragging this thing out for months longer now outweigh those caused by Long Covid?

    It won't surprise you to hear that I think we should just go ahead and open up, but if you take the contrary view then consider: what happens if restrictions are kept in place for months for this reason, and then other perfectly plausible sounding reasons are found to keep them going once practically everyone over the age of about eight has been vaccinated twice? Because they will be.

    Are we meant to keep living like this forever?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Ah Kinabalu, supporter of the downtrodden, unprivileged, err, anti-vaxxer.

    Honestly, anyone who refuses the vaccine is a complete and utter c***. The only thing that can cure them of their stupidity is death by COVID like so many of those idiotic people who denied it's existence.
    Yes but c'mon. People are imperfect and complicated. There'll be those who are eg not the brightest, or otherwise susceptible to scare stories, or pressure from others, or distrust of authority, or with other health concerns, or whatever, there's loads of possible reasons why somebody might end up not doing what is (I agree) their moral duty of getting vaxxed. It's a bad decision, a sort of a crime even, if we want to use that language, but it's not a capital offence. Them dying would still be a tragedy. Even Lozza.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719

    Silliness aside, a dinner at the Eden Project is a rather clever choice - dramatic setting, weather proof and yet feels like the open air.
    Yes, I've not been to an event there but I remember having dinner at the Singapore botanic gardens and I expect the effect was similar.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, a small increase. We also have the new data point of just 63 hospitalisations from 32k delta cases in fully vaccinated people. I calculate that as an efficacy rate of at least 96%, probably closer to 98-99% when case age profile is taken into account.
    Small decrease you mean - 884 down from 906 yesterday
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719

    People travelling to Guernsey from the UK who have not had two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine must be tested and self-isolate from 1 July.

    The move applies to people coming from the Common Travel Area which includes the UK, Jersey, Isle of Man and Republic of Ireland.

    The start of a traffic light system has been delayed following the spread of the Delta variant in the UK.

    It means the current 4-tier system of categories remains in place.

    But those coming from the Common Travel Area who have had their second dose more than two weeks before arriving will be able to avoid the testing and self-isolation.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-guernsey-57445813

    Letters will start going out in July confirming an individual's vaccination status - ongoing they will be issued two weeks after they've received the second jab

    Well we're going on holiday to Jersey in August and no doubt they'll follow suit. I wonder what that means for double vaccinated parents with unvaxxed children and teenagers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    The Lost Gardens are amazing
    Yes, wonderful.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,766
    MaxPB said:

    The virus will simply run out of unvaccinated people to hospitalise at some point very soon. This is the exit wave, Israel had it too as the virus finds those unvaccinated people.
    Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.

    Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
    Lockdown is incarceration. Taking the ability to be social away from a human is taking the ability to live their life away from them.
    And it is probably making us unfit and ill as a nation. We will more likely remember the businesses lost than lives saved.

    But politics is what politics is, they can’t gamble with their poll ratings as on top of it by allowing 3rd wave to make a mess.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    TimS said:

    Yes, I've not been to an event there but I remember having dinner at the Singapore botanic gardens and I expect the effect was similar.
    Well, they both been used as movies sets, for their dramatic effect...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    What do people expect from Johnson now?

    Stand pat

    Hybrid

    Freedom

    ???

    Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2021
    Ruski Lidl....

    Russian discounter Mere aiming for 300 UK stores in 10 years

    The hard discounter, which claims it will undercut Lidl and Aldi by 20%-30%, is determined to scale its UK presence

    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/discounters/russian-discounter-mere-aiming-for-300-uk-stores-in-10-years/656929.article
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    What do people expect from Johnson now?

    Stand pat

    Hybrid

    Freedom

    ???

    Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.

    My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.

    Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
    Thanks
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, a small increase. We also have the new data point of just 63 hospitalisations from 32k delta cases in fully vaccinated people. I calculate that as an efficacy rate of at least 96%, probably closer to 98-99% when case age profile is taken into account.
    I don't think its tenable to argue that numbers don't matter among the unvaccinated. We do need to minimise the impact of any exit wave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
    Children aren't even in the plan, we'll be waiting forever if we wait for them !
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    What do people expect from Johnson now?

    Stand pat

    Hybrid

    Freedom

    ???

    Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.

    I would go with most likely stand pat but with concessions for weddings as i think he would take a political hit on that.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,996
    gealbhan said:

    Lockdown is incarceration. Taking the ability to be social away from a human is taking the ability to live their life away from them.
    And it is probably making us unfit and ill as a nation. We will more likely remember the businesses lost than lives saved.

    But politics is what politics is, they can’t gamble with their poll ratings as on top of it by allowing 3rd wave to make a mess.
    People are being social via zoom teams facetime WhatsApp etc. Not the same of course as touch but it's being social.nevertheless
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886

    My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.

    Yeah. Me too. I wonder if it might be 2 or 3 weeks rather than 4.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135

    OK, I'll just keep talking the piss. You carry on sounding like Nigel Farage's cod piece. Sorry, mouth piece (aka Putin's useful idiots). I think the real reason is that even the genuinely committed footsoldiers of the Brexit-con like yourself genuinely have doubts as to whether it was as pointless as it was, so you think you have to keep convincing yourselves. There there.
    I think you need the practice, so carry on at your convenience 👍🏻
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719
    The optics with this exit wave are interesting. If we'd locked down less heavily in January then more people would have caught Covid, been hospitalised and died and the rate of decline in cases would have been slower. We might never have got below about 5-6,000 per day. But now the impact of Delta would be much less visible, plus there would be greater levels of population immunity. So everyone would probably be feeling better about Covid than they are now despite the overall result being worse. And we would be unlocking on schedule on the 21st.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    isam said:

    In his first Opinium poll he scored

    51-4 with Remainers
    22-13 with Leavers

    Latest Opinium

    36-35 with Remainers
    17-53 with Leavers

    Losing popularity pretty evenly really
    Yep. Therefore the problem is not that he's a Remainer. There's no change there. He was. He is.

    The slump is due to other stuff. Pandemic. Vaccines. Being dull compared to the MMM. Not opposing enough. Whatever.

    This is my point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    edited June 2021
    Cringy tweet from Macron (you need to see the video to get the full effect):

    "Now that we are together, united, determined to make a difference, it's time to deliver. I'm sure we will, @JoeBiden!"

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1403375117158293509
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Does Starmer even want to win ?

    NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,766

    My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.

    Sounds about right. I suspect we will soon get some clarification from the Great Leader like this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaldozNHHhE
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    What do people expect from Johnson now?

    Stand pat

    Hybrid

    Freedom

    ???

    Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.

    Four more weeks seems to be the consensus.

    I would be surprised if nothing changed. I would think still best guess is that most restrictions will go for private enterprises but public measures will stay (masks on tube, hospitals, govt buildings, etc).

    But that I realise is coming to be a hugely optimistic scenario.

    We all said hospitalisations not cases and here we (and the BMA) are on cases.

    This is the UK we're in right now. Very disappointing.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.

    'Further review...??''

    ''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.

    I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Starmer even want to win ?

    NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros

    Clearly not with the Red wall...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    B

    Ruski Lidl....

    Russian discounter Mere aiming for 300 UK stores in 10 years

    The hard discounter, which claims it will undercut Lidl and Aldi by 20%-30%, is determined to scale its UK presence

    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/discounters/russian-discounter-mere-aiming-for-300-uk-stores-in-10-years/656929.article

    Brexit bonus: tinned cabbage.

    You can’t the beat the unmistakeable taste of Yakutsk.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.

    That would be shocking imo. Essentially open ended restrictions. Would you be happy with that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What do people expect from Johnson now?

    Stand pat

    Hybrid

    Freedom

    ???

    Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.

    I expect a mixed bag. Lifting restrictions on weddings, christenings and other large life events (which would be good for hospitality too as @Cyclefree has been saying) but keeping nightclubs closed for a few more weeks, potentially until just before the schools break up.

    Not sure what they'll do about sport. The football season is over and major events are things like the Euros were commitments have already been made and the Cricket etc, so maybe lift restrictions on that too since they've already committed to most of it, and it allows more to be said as having been lifted.

    Make sense to lift restrictions on theatres too - after all they'll be most visited by vaccinated people anyway! Its nightclubs that are mostly visited by the unvaccinated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155

    Ruski Lidl....

    Russian discounter Mere aiming for 300 UK stores in 10 years

    The hard discounter, which claims it will undercut Lidl and Aldi by 20%-30%, is determined to scale its UK presence

    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/discounters/russian-discounter-mere-aiming-for-300-uk-stores-in-10-years/656929.article

    Russian grocer stores?

    Specialising in empty shelves and bread queues? :smiley:
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    Four more weeks seems to be the consensus.

    I would be surprised if nothing changed. I would think still best guess is that most restrictions will go for private enterprises but public measures will stay (masks on tube, hospitals, govt buildings, etc).

    But that I realise is coming to be a hugely optimistic scenario.

    We all said hospitalisations not cases and here we (and the BMA) are on cases.

    This is the UK we're in right now. Very disappointing.
    Four more weeks to what?

    A commitment to a definite re-opening?

    Or a 'further review, as pubman says.

    Because the uncertainty of a further review is going to surely drive many businesses to the wall. Others, operating at a loss, will have to decide whether it is worth it.

    Some may decide to open anyway, like Lloyd Webber.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    What do people expect from Johnson now?

    Stand pat

    Hybrid

    Freedom

    ???

    Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.

    Johnson is a political animal. He will be more terrified of going to stage 4 and doing a sudden u turn then standing pat. The U turn would likely massively damage him politically, standing pat wont
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Starmer even want to win ?

    NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros

    Yes, he just wants Bertolt Brecht style a different electorate to enable his victory.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MikeL said:

    No, people don't enjoy being bossed about.

    The trouble with posters on here is everybody is desperate to take the most extreme position at both ends of the spectrum.

    What most people in the real world actually think is that the restrictions aren't very onerous and they are worth having to mitigate the risk in case things spiral out of control again.

    And that it would be sensible to wait until a few more people are vaccinated. I would have thought most would think say 65% to 70% fully vaccinated would sound about right whereas today we are only at 55% (and then it's two weeks to take effect).

    Moderate, pragmatic, reasonable.

    Whereas on here we've got people who seriously think the reason for the restrictions is because it gives a few people in power a kick that they think they are controlling people.

    And because a few scientists enjoy being on the TV.

    It's idiotic, conspiracy theory stuff.
    The problem with that line of reasoning is that it assumes that there won't be an endless series of excuses, all of which will be immediately swallowed as necessary or even welcomed.

    We are already at, or very close to, the point at which everybody in Phase One has been double-vaxxed. But this isn't good enough. It's all too easy to foresee what's likely to come next. First, we have to wait for x-number of weeks to gather more data, then another x-number of weeks for every adult to have one jab, then again for every adult to have the second jab, then after that for secondary school children to be vaccinated, and then for the olds to have their boosters, and then we can't unlock because it's Autumn and the bad weather has arrived, and then because the NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time, etc. etc.

    And through it all the Government dithers, flip-flops about, won't commit to anything, and wouldn't be trusted to deliver if it did. It does all make it rather hard to feel positive about the situation.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,931

    Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
    I am very conflicted over this

    It seems that the growth in covid is hitting the unvaccinated and young but it has not overwhelmed the NHS

    There are so many so called professionals, including Independent Sage, who have always insisted on a zero or elimination covid policy with no heed of the damage to mental health, outstanding urgent medical non covid procedures, and of course the economy.

    I hope Boris steers a middle course on Monday with concentration on opening outdoor events and modest retention of restrictions including face masks and some social distancing

    I am sitting on the fence at present, but surely vaccinations must curtail the need to delay 21st June by much more than a coupe of weeks

    And as far as poll ratings are concerned, I doubt there will be much change, not least because Labour have no street cred with the public
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    England PCR positivity

    image
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417

    There's a reason it's called New South Wales.
    Why isn't there a New North Wales? Discrimination, I would say!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    Four more weeks to what?

    A commitment to a definite re-opening?

    Or a 'further review, as pubman says.

    Because the uncertainty of a further review is going to surely drive many businesses to the wall. Others, operating at a loss, will have to decide whether it is worth it.

    Some may decide to open anyway, like Lloyd Webber.
    Yes that's their problem. There will never be a right time. So to open everything up and keep restrictions for govt/public places might work to assuage the zeros and yet those who want to get on with life will be able to do so.

    But as you say, aside from the businesses, to have a perpetual "further review" will imo deal a heavy blow to the mental health of hundreds of thousands if not millions. The uncertainty becomes worse than the knowledge of risk.

    But look at the polls.........
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Johnson is a political animal. He will be more terrified of going to stage 4 and doing a sudden u turn then standing pat. The U turn would likely massively damage him politically, standing pat wont
    Standing pat will do massive damage.

    Hospitality etc have had 3 winters already. They need this summer. Pissing away this summer is not an option.

    Nightclubs at least aren't especially seasonal AFAIK so they're the soft target (as well as being the one mostly used by the unvaccinated, least used by voters).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    UK cases summary

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    UK R

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2021

    Russian grocer stores?

    Specialising in empty shelves and bread queues? :smiley:
    Not sure they checked out the name very well...mere....well that could be that all their food tastes merrrrh...or the phrase what a mere / having a mere, as in what a mere that place is.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,931
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Starmer even want to win ?

    NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros

    He really has no political antennae
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    That would be shocking imo. Essentially open ended restrictions. Would you be happy with that?
    A four week hiatus to a 'further review' is a recipe for total and utter chaos.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    TimS said:

    Well we're going on holiday to Jersey in August and no doubt they'll follow suit. I wonder what that means for double vaccinated parents with unvaxxed children and teenagers.
    Jersey has been more relaxed on border control than Guernsey (and hence has had much longer use of NPIs - mask wearing for example) and also has had a significantly greater case load - currently 17 vs 0.

    These are the entry requirements:

    https://twitter.com/GovJersey/status/1403010828224192512?s=20

    Don't know about Jersey, but the Guernsey CMO today said children would enjoy their parent's vaccination status.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    B

    Brexit bonus: tinned cabbage.

    You can’t the beat the unmistakeable taste of Yakutsk polonium-210.
    Fixed it for you :smile:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    UK deaths

    image

    vs yesterday

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2021

    He really has no political antennae
    Hot out of interjecting himself into the TERF wars, he is now doing the same with an issue that is far more mainstream but also divides.

    The luxury of opposition is you can sidestep these landmines by not really giving a view. Something that is harder when in power.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited June 2021

    I'll repeat what I said earlier. We've introduced extraordinary legal restrictions because we faced a genuine national emergency. Thanks to the vaccines the emergency is over. So the legal restrictions go.

    Otherwise we will always be having extraordinary legal restrictions being imposed in response to norovirus, or normal winter influenza.

    We need to change our thinking. We need a clear lead that the vaccines have ended the emergency.
    Yes. I agree.

    But I'm countering (for the noble sake of probe and argument) with the observation that this is not a black/white, 0/100, yes/no, Oasis/Blur situation. The unlock is a process not an event. If (say) we still have 80% of the National Emergency left, we should keep (say) 20% of the response.

    Arguably.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    Standing pat will do massive damage.

    Hospitality etc have had 3 winters already. They need this summer. Pissing away this summer is not an option.

    Nightclubs at least aren't especially seasonal AFAIK so they're the soft target (as well as being the one mostly used by the unvaccinated, least used by voters).
    It will do massive damage to a small number of people in hospitality. But wont damage his conservative core vote From a political viewpoint it is the safer bet for Johnson rather than doing a sudden u turn
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Age related data scaled to 100K populations per age group

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    UK vaccinations

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    its the same with house prices. High house prices affect young people badly but benefit conservative voters. So Johnson wants high house prices
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Question....lots of talk of coverage of one dose vs two....do we have any idea about if even having one dose reduces your chance of spreading it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
    That's what they'll do if they want to keep the massage simple and retain "Freedom Day" as a big event - as opposed to it disappearing into a morass of detail.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    Pagan2 said:

    Eden project was another eu funded white elephant that made a lot of people very rich without doing much to help the area it was sited in
    Is that true? I don't think the guy who set it up has got rich off the back of it. And it employs a lot of people. I think it's a pretty incredible place, TBH, although it's always way too busy. I prefer the Lost Gardens though, that's a really magical place.
    The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Wonder how the RoI will enjoy this:

    As of October 2021, GB will restrict the import of chilled meat preparations from the EU [but not NI], as it currently does the rest of the world.

    https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1403340231605108736?s=20
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    as i say Johnson is the ultimate political animal....he will regard businesses going to the wall as a price well worth paying to keep his poll ratings high
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,931

    'Further review...??''

    ''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.

    I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.

    Maybe getting vaccinated would help
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited June 2021

    1. We are reaching the point where, come June 21st, virtually all the over 50s will have been double-vaxxed and are therefore going to have as much protection as they're going to have from the virus. The risk is therefore disproportionately borne by the young (who are at very low risk of illness, and probably more likely to be harmed by the economic fallout of this disaster,) and the anti-vaxxers. I'll be a little more diplomatic than Max about the latter, but we really shouldn't shed too many tears if they get ill.

    Thus, nearly everyone who dies of Covid from hereon in is going to die of Covid at some point anyway - either because they won't (or, in a tiny number of very sad cases, can't) accept the help offered by the vaccines, or the vaccines haven't worked very well for them. These people cannot be saved by dither. They can only be granted a brief stay of execution, at huge cost to everybody else.

    2. You can't justify locking people up to give the NHS time to clear its backlog. If we do that then we'll all stay locked up for five to ten years.

    3. That only leaves the Long Covid problem. So, the calculation is: do we keep restrictions to minimise Long Covid cases, even if that means they stay for most of the rest of the year whilst the vaccination programme works its way down through young adults AND older children? Or do we say that the other non-Covid harms caused by dragging this thing out for months longer now outweigh those caused by Long Covid?

    It won't surprise you to hear that I think we should just go ahead and open up, but if you take the contrary view then consider: what happens if restrictions are kept in place for months for this reason, and then other perfectly plausible sounding reasons are found to keep them going once practically everyone over the age of about eight has been vaccinated twice? Because they will be.

    Are we meant to keep living like this forever?
    I also think we should unlock 100%. But I was just explaining why (imo) the argument that "NHS won't collapse = No case for ANY restrictions" is not the impeccable piece of logic some think it is.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719
    You know we're arrived at peak 2021 when we're culture-warring the Eden Project.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    kinabalu said:

    Yes. I agree.

    But I'm countering (for the noble sake of probe and argument) with the observation that this is not a black/white, 0/100, yes/no, Oasis/Blur situation. The unlock is a process not an event. If (say) we still have 80% of the National Emergency left, we should keep (say) 20% of the response.

    Arguably.
    I'm not saying that the government do nothing. The Emergency is over, but there's still a public health issue.

    It's the nature of what the government does that is different. The legal powers of the Coronavirus Act need to end, and we switch back to a more normal public health response: vaccinations, advice, etc.

    It's really important that we make this shift in thinking. The extraordinary powers, the micromanaging of legal restrictions are no longer appropriate or justifiable.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210

    its the same with house prices. High house prices affect young people badly but benefit conservative voters. So Johnson wants high house prices

    Seats with larger proportions of home owners tend to be Tory. So he wants the Young on the ladder too.

    He is trying to square that circle.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    Is that true? I don't think the guy who set it up has got rich off the back of it. And it employs a lot of people. I think it's a pretty incredible place, TBH, although it's always way too busy. I prefer the Lost Gardens though, that's a really magical place.
    The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
    The Eden project was a bust at first, then slowly grew to a popular attraction. In some ways a bit like the Millenium Dome.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    There are so many so called professionals, including Independent Sage, who have always insisted on a zero or elimination covid policy
    The Guernsey CMO has described that as 'epidemiologically illiterate" and was clear today that COVID will be with us for the foreseeable future, and some people will get sick, and some of them will die - but we need to get back to some form of life and live with COVID.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,849

    Ken Clark once said the BMA were by far the most militant union he ever had to deal with.
    If Ken Clarke had not spent so much of his career moving from department to department fighting Conservative-voting professionals like doctors and the police, the Conservative Party might have done better in 1997.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Is that true? I don't think the guy who set it up has got rich off the back of it. And it employs a lot of people. I think it's a pretty incredible place, TBH, although it's always way too busy. I prefer the Lost Gardens though, that's a really magical place.
    The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
    Went there last summer, the LG of H. Very atmospheric. Walked across that rope ladder in that tropical area and it felt like I could have been in my 2nd home - Malaysia.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    I also think we should unlock 100%. But I was just explaining why (imo) the argument that "NHS won't collapse = No case for ANY restrictions" is not the impeccable piece of logic some think it is.
    Oh absolutely. It ought to be a sufficient argument, because saving the NHS from implosion was the sole justification for all this bullying and pestering behaviour in the first place. But all that's happened now that the NHS is safe from implosion is that the goalposts are inevitably being moved. For one reason or another, the politicians and the scientists really, really do not want to let go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Root on to bowl complete dross. Might get a wicket.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    Taz said:

    Seats with larger proportions of home owners tend to be Tory. So he wants the Young on the ladder too.

    He is trying to square that circle.
    yes but that will be someone elses problem not his
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Maybe getting vaccinated would help
    The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy

    Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.

    Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.

    And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Anyone who didn't treat the pandemic as a joke/non event or understood science.
    2020 should have been a lay-up for an incumbent.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy

    Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.

    Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.

    And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.

    I dont think from the way they are behaving the govt has confidence in their own vaccine. Look at the surge in cases in virtually fully vaccinated chile with hospitals getting overwhelmed again. If they know something about the vaccine we dont they may be reluctant to unlock properly
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,931

    The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy

    Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.

    Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.

    And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.

    It is a good job that 41,088,485 do not share your views, with tens of thousands added daily

    They are the responsible citizens of this country
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667



    And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.

    In what sense a control tool? I don't think you're one of the QAnon people who think it's injecting some literal form of control by Soros and Gates, but I'm genuinely not sure what you mean? I've had both vaccinations - in what way am I now being controlled?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,797

    The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy

    Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.

    Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.

    And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.

    I do agree with that actually.

    I know several people that are starting to say was the point of getting vaccinated if it doesn't bring an end to the pandemic...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    DougSeal said:
    There's not so much wrong with the peasants salute.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    2020 should have been a lay-up for an incumbent.
    Given how much of the US media is up Biden's a*se, I'm sure that would have been the case if he was the incumbent.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I dont think from the way they are behaving the govt has confidence in their own vaccine. Look at the surge in cases in virtually fully vaccinated chile with hospitals getting overwhelmed again. If they know something about the vaccine we dont they may be reluctant to unlock properly
    They trumpet the vax program as wonderful and amazing.

    But it is not amazing or wonderful enough for you to be able to go to Benidorm for a week, as Theresa May pointed out today.

    And so its wonderful until it comes to giving you your freedom back in return. At which point 'variants' are used to discredit vaccines.

    They value and devalue the currency as they wish. Its about control.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    They trumpet the vax program as wonderful and amazing.

    But it is not amazing or wonderful enough for you to be able to go to Benidorm for a week, as Theresa May pointed out today.

    And so its wonderful until it comes to giving you your freedom back in return. At which point 'variants' are used to discredit vaccines.

    They value and devalue the currency as they wish. Its about control.
    Yes its either control or they genuinely think the vaccine doesnt work. Of course if they said that there would be mass panic.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    GIN1138 said:

    I do agree with that actually.

    I know several people that are starting to say was the point of getting vaccinated if it doesn't bring an end to the pandemic...
    True up to a point. Getting vaccinated is a very good idea regardless, but one does have a certain amount of sympathy with those who say that all we've done is traded one form of lockdown for another. Because that's basically what it feels like. The threat of getting very sick or croaking from Covid is hugely reduced, but now we discover that all we've achieved is to trade death row for a life sentence in an open prison. When will it end? Will it ever end? Nobody knows.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited June 2021

    I'm not saying that the government do nothing. The Emergency is over, but there's still a public health issue.

    It's the nature of what the government does that is different. The legal powers of the Coronavirus Act need to end, and we switch back to a more normal public health response: vaccinations, advice, etc.

    It's really important that we make this shift in thinking. The extraordinary powers, the micromanaging of legal restrictions are no longer appropriate or justifiable.
    I agree with you - and in fact I think there should have been more guidance and less law in the response. Particularly as regards household mixing and personal (as opposed to commercial) life. Where I agree less is I don't share the acute level of concern of some (eg you) that we are being infantilized and are completely losing our perspective on freedom vs security. I see where the concern is coming from - and I do share it just a little bit - but I don't really feel it and I don't think (as of now) it's justified or rational. We are getting through this. We're close to the end. And life is miles better and more normal now than it was a couple of months ago. We're not "locked down". That's a total misnomer. We're just being (if the drums are right) overcautious on the last steps. But if significant legal restrictions persist beyond (say) July/Aug, I'll probably change my tune.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826

    It's so hot and muggy today though, isn't it?

    How does a man wear a shirt for any length of time when it's like this?
    Could be worse. All day in PPE yesterday 😷😫
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2021

    It is a good job that 41,088,485 do not share your views, with tens of thousands added daily

    They are the responsible citizens prisoners of this country
    Fixed it for you :smile:

    (Not rubbishing the vaccines BTW - they just show no imminent sign of getting us out of jail. They may never get us out of jail. Which is thoroughly shite.)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    There is SOME evidence that vaccines are working well against the Delta variant but given that most of the Delta cases are new it is too soon to be sure.

    Again there is SOME evidence that fewer cases are leading to hospitalisations but again it is too early to be sure. Most of the Delta infections have only been reported in the last week/10 days or so and there is a lag in hospitalisation data.

    Also the Government is ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE not to go backwards ie go back to Stage 2 rules or worse.

    So this is why the Government will take 4 more weeks.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,849
    Omnium said:

    There's not so much wrong with the peasants salute.
    Benny Hill looks like he actually knows how to salute. I guess he was old enough to have served during the war.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,931

    Fixed it for you :smile:
    Without vaccinations you really would be a prisoner in this country
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Foxy said:

    Could be worse. All day in PPE yesterday 😷😫
    I'll keep on bashing away on this topic - from doing welding, the difference between wearing a proper face mask with a air blown in through a filter vs an assortment of PPE.... well, the air-conditioning effect from the blow air, is very very nice.

    For the future I want to see a good hard look (proper trials and research) at moving to reusable equipment like that rather than the array of masks and face shields that you see being used.
This discussion has been closed.