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CON lead slips to 13% with YouGov that has the Greens in third place ahead of the LDs – politicalbet

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,160
    RobD said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    You might have had a point if the vaccines were going to be donated today.
    To be fair to contrarian, I don't think it's a great look for the PM to be gloating about this until we've ended all restrictions.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Let's not exaggerate too much about the superior willingness of our German and American counterparts to jump on a plane as normal this summer either:

    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/summer-air-travel-outlook-could-be-less-than-23-of-pre-pandemic-levels

    The outlook for international air travel this summer is set to be just under a quarter (23%) of pre-pandemic levels, according to flight data firm ForwardKeys.

    Europe looks set for another disappointing summer, with the strongest source markets for travel to Mediterranean destinations are Germany, France and the US, where current outbound bookings stand at 37%, 42% and 24% of 2019 levels respectively.

    ForwardKeys insights vice president Olivier Ponti warned: “It is now clear that for most of the world, a summer holiday abroad is a dream; and a staycation is the reality.

    Pretty much what I said yesterday. Spain is playing very fast and loose with it's people's lives with it's decision to open up so much so quickly. I see Madrid is already trying to speed up 2nd AZN doses as they reckon the Delta variant could be the dominant strain within 6 weeks!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.
    That's true. But this little bar I like to go to - Belsize area - you wouldn't even know there was a pandemic on.
    I like that there are no queues at the bar and they all know your name. Really makes a place.
    I tracked down that pub in the end. I have to say @kinabalu was quite right, and I apologize for doubting him. What he didn’t mention is that they have their own dolphinarium at the back! Amazing

    If Carlsberg...
    Why do I suspect a "I fell in love with a dolphin then she dumped me" anecdote is incoming
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,103
    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
    And his party membership kind of hamstrings him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,923
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    You might have had a point if the vaccines were going to be donated today.
    To be fair to contrarian, I don't think it's a great look for the PM to be gloating about this until we've ended all restrictions.
    Yeah, it might look bad, but donating vaccines that are due to arrive in months has no impact on the ability to reopen in a few weeks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,137
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
    He’s also clearly scared of a challenge, now, so he’s appealing to the hardcore activists, who are all Woke af

    Trouble is the UK is very very different to the Labour base. So with every bit of cack-handed Wokery like this he alienates more voters, tanking his polling further - thus making a challenge more likely
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,103

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    That is after everyone has been offered their jabs.

    What else should we do with the vaccine production capability/excess orders, once we have a stockpile of third jabs for variants, just in case?

    Shut it down?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    “The Labour leader, who believes that Gareth Southgate has shown Johnson how to be a leader…”

    Good of GS to be giving lessons. How about he shows you, Sir Keir?!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865

    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
    Yes and any woman or trans girl pre op who happens to be wearing a short skirt.....do I take the knee because the team I work with has decided to and show them all or not take the knee and be looked at as a racist bitch. A hostile work situation if ever there was one. Oh don't wear a short skirt then? Very sexist dictating what I wear surely
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    edited June 2021
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.

    Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?

    Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?

    Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
    If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
    Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
    If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
    Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed

    Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
    It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    I honestly think many people are no longer thinking straight after the onslaught of fear propaganda over the last 15 months
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,900
    edited June 2021

    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
    That's another minefield you can walk into...handicapped no no...disabled...some find very offensive..prefer handiable or handicapable...but others find very offensive...so Differently-abled...yes well same problem... challenged.....

    Head spinning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,543
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.

    Nah, I visited a few bars over the last bank holiday in Manchester.

    No faffing, one was a straight walk in.
    So of the few bars one was a straight walk in. Plus no masks, and other crap, right?
    Yup.

    The joys of staying in a nice hotel with a bar on site, exclusively for residents.
    Yes well that would help. And out of interest what were the requirements so that you could stay at the hotel? And also, what about the other bars you went to?
    The day before the stay I received an email asking if I had any Covid-19 symptoms in the last few days and not to visit if I had.

    For the bars.

    The pop up bar outside Selfridges was a straight walk in, as it was outdoors, no need to wear masks whilst waking about.

    The Old Wellington was similar, outdoor seats, which was great on a very hot weekend.

    Hard Rock Cafe was a simple only reservation (which is better than pre pandemic when you could queue for a while), similar to the Lowry, just asked if I had any symptoms/been asked to isolate in the last ten days then taken to our tables.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865

    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
    That's another minefield you can walk into...handicapped no no...disabled...some find very offensive..prefer handiable or handicapable...but others find very offensive...so Differently-abled...yes well same problem... challenged.....

    Head spinning.
    Differently normal is the term to use
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    i think the problem is the conservatives have paid no penalty for governing us badly...look at the polls so why would they bother much now
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,511
    New Zealand are going to win this match by an innings aren't they. Get 550 and bowl England out for 150.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    On topic, my return to the office has been delayed, instead of the 5th of July, it is now 26th of July (at the earliest).

    Boooooo!

    But will will a delay to freedom day cause the government a hit in the polls? I have my doubts.

    I doubt it as people are getting noticeably more worried and have been primed to expect a delay. I think more will be angry than the last time a change was announced, but on the whole people still accept it.

    Social distancing is such a pisser though
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    That suggests to me that you might be a racist
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    isam said:

    One thing that’s become more noticeable recently, as Labour, and Sir Keir in particular, have tumbled in the polls - the ‘one in a million’ shot, ‘the haymaker’ in boxing terms, has started to be given equal weighting with the data we have, the round by round schooling.

    So Boris being thought of as more popular than Sir Keir on almost every metric, the Conservatives having unprecedented poll leads for a decade old party of government, the losing of safe seats, the lack of bounce from tv interviews/Confessions of a SPAD are brushed aside with “we’ll see’s”, and “you never know’s” as if they are comparable retorts

    The election is not for ages. This is a perfectly logical retort to what the polls are saying now.

    Otherwise all you'll get is, "Ok. So that's the polls then. Thanks for posting."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,900
    Andy_JS said:

    New Zealand are going to win this match by an innings aren't they. Get 550 and bowl England out for 150.

    That is the opinion of the sports sub-committee of Independent SAGE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,511
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
    He’s also clearly scared of a challenge, now, so he’s appealing to the hardcore activists, who are all Woke af

    Trouble is the UK is very very different to the Labour base. So with every bit of cack-handed Wokery like this he alienates more voters, tanking his polling further - thus making a challenge more likely
    Funny thing is Scotland aren't taking the knee. I thought they'd be taking two at least.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    edited June 2021
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.
    That's true. But this little bar I like to go to - Belsize area - you wouldn't even know there was a pandemic on.
    I like that there are no queues at the bar and they all know your name. Really makes a place.
    I tracked down that pub in the end. I have to say @kinabalu was quite right, and I apologize for doubting him. What he didn’t mention is that they have their own dolphinarium at the back! Amazing
    And it's not "leafy" is it? - Nothing leafy about it at all in fact.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.

    Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?

    Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?

    Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
    If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
    Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
    If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
    Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed

    Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
    It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
    It does make sense, because he was doomed even when he was polling better than he is now, due to 65% of constituencies voting leave, and him being the arch Remainer responsible for the ‘people’s vote’ and the loss of the Red Wall.

    In a nutshell, I doubt it was Leave voters responsible for his previously good polling
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,861

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.

    Nah, I visited a few bars over the last bank holiday in Manchester.

    No faffing, one was a straight walk in.
    So of the few bars one was a straight walk in. Plus no masks, and other crap, right?
    Yup.

    The joys of staying in a nice hotel with a bar on site, exclusively for residents.
    Yes well that would help. And out of interest what were the requirements so that you could stay at the hotel? And also, what about the other bars you went to?
    The day before the stay I received an email asking if I had any Covid-19 symptoms in the last few days and not to visit if I had.

    For the bars.

    The pop up bar outside Selfridges was a straight walk in, as it was outdoors, no need to wear masks whilst waking about.

    The Old Wellington was similar, outdoor seats, which was great on a very hot weekend.

    Hard Rock Cafe was a simple only reservation (which is better than pre pandemic when you could queue for a while), similar to the Lowry, just asked if I had any symptoms/been asked to isolate in the last ten days then taken to our tables.
    Sounds good.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,103

    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
    That's another minefield you can walk into...handicapped no no...disabled...some find very offensive..prefer handiable or handicapable...but others find very offensive...so Differently-abled...yes well same problem... challenged.....

    Head spinning.
    I just find it enjoyable. Like pointing out to Greens that the Green Belt is an institutionally racist policy.

    Meanwhile in the real world people can do real things.

    My eldest daughter, at her last school, volunteered to sort of pair up with a new girl who was being treated as an outsider. Just that she didn't know how to make friends, and acted in a way that made the situation worse. So my daughter helped break the cycle. Which caused the girl in question to go from worse and worse behaviour to fitting in and getting good grades. Which means that one person in the {redacted} community in London has a better future now, I hope.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    And Malmsbury reckons all the other countries are taking a big gamble by opening up before all embryos have been vaccinated.

    The gamble is being taken by Johnson's Britain and its a massive and reckless one at that.
    Yes, they are betting that they will get their vaccination numbers up by the time the Delta variant starts really saying hello.

    The question is at what point do the vaccines do the job vs the Delta variant, in terms of keeping hospital cases down and deaths down. Hence watching those figures. The cases are probably going to go up.
    The central problem with what we're seeing in this country at the moment is that, the nanosecond the cases start spiking, there's a massive panic that we'll inevitably end up wading waist deep through corpses in a hellscape dominated by burning hospitals, if we don't have the rules to protect us. So the rules have to stay. And stay. And stay. In fact, I'm starting to get concerned that we'll find ourselves back in full lockdown in another few weeks, at the rate things are going and with the panic snowballing as it is.

    So, ultimately, the only way out of Covid is for everybody to catch it - except that, because we're all locked up, that will take so very, very long that by the time we've all had it there'll be a variant loose in the land that's capable of reinfecting people, so we cycle back round to the beginning. Lockdown, to a greater or lesser extent, thus continues forever.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.
    That's true. But this little bar I like to go to - Belsize area - you wouldn't even know there was a pandemic on.
    I like that there are no queues at the bar and they all know your name. Really makes a place.
    I tracked down that pub in the end. I have to say @kinabalu was quite right, and I apologize for doubting him. What he didn’t mention is that they have their own dolphinarium at the back! Amazing

    If Carlsberg...
    They don't do that. There's quite a decent selection of beers - especially for such a sweet little place - but not that one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,103

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    And Malmsbury reckons all the other countries are taking a big gamble by opening up before all embryos have been vaccinated.

    The gamble is being taken by Johnson's Britain and its a massive and reckless one at that.
    Yes, they are betting that they will get their vaccination numbers up by the time the Delta variant starts really saying hello.

    The question is at what point do the vaccines do the job vs the Delta variant, in terms of keeping hospital cases down and deaths down. Hence watching those figures. The cases are probably going to go up.
    The central problem with what we're seeing in this country at the moment is that, the nanosecond the cases start spiking, there's a massive panic that we'll inevitably end up wading waist deep through corpses in a hellscape dominated by burning hospitals, if we don't have the rules to protect us. So the rules have to stay. And stay. And stay. In fact, I'm starting to get concerned that we'll find ourselves back in full lockdown in another few weeks, at the rate things are going and with the panic snowballing as it is.

    So, ultimately, the only way out of Covid is for everybody to catch it - except that, because we're all locked up, that will take so very, very long that by the time we've all had it there'll be a variant loose in the land that's capable of reinfecting people, so we cycle back round to the beginning. Lockdown, to a greater or lesser extent, thus continues forever.
    There is next to no sign of re-infection being a thing.

    Cases were always going to go up when restrictions ended. The question is what hospitalisations and deaths?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
    He’s also clearly scared of a challenge, now, so he’s appealing to the hardcore activists, who are all Woke af

    Trouble is the UK is very very different to the Labour base. So with every bit of cack-handed Wokery like this he alienates more voters, tanking his polling further - thus making a challenge more likely
    Funny thing is Scotland aren't taking the knee. I thought they'd be taking two at least.
    Scotland is not woke, despite Nicola’s best efforts. The team saw the writing on the wall with what their fans would think.

    Alternatively, they are just doing the opposite to the English
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,543
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.

    Nah, I visited a few bars over the last bank holiday in Manchester.

    No faffing, one was a straight walk in.
    So of the few bars one was a straight walk in. Plus no masks, and other crap, right?
    Yup.

    The joys of staying in a nice hotel with a bar on site, exclusively for residents.
    Yes well that would help. And out of interest what were the requirements so that you could stay at the hotel? And also, what about the other bars you went to?
    The day before the stay I received an email asking if I had any Covid-19 symptoms in the last few days and not to visit if I had.

    For the bars.

    The pop up bar outside Selfridges was a straight walk in, as it was outdoors, no need to wear masks whilst waking about.

    The Old Wellington was similar, outdoor seats, which was great on a very hot weekend.

    Hard Rock Cafe was a simple only reservation (which is better than pre pandemic when you could queue for a while), similar to the Lowry, just asked if I had any symptoms/been asked to isolate in the last ten days then taken to our tables.
    Sounds good.
    The bars I'm visiting in Blackpool next weekend are similar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    Ordinary people don't go to the theatre.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
    Yes and any woman or trans girl pre op who happens to be wearing a short skirt.....do I take the knee because the team I work with has decided to and show them all or not take the knee and be looked at as a racist bitch. A hostile work situation if ever there was one. Oh don't wear a short skirt then? Very sexist dictating what I wear surely
    You lot need to chill the eff out about this, you easily triggered snowflakes.

    By the way Angela Rayner is wearing a fairly short skirt in the picture above. Not that it effing matters.

    Give it a bloody rest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,543
    kinabalu said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    Ordinary people don't go to the theatre.
    They go to the cinemas, which are open.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Thinking about it more, taking the knee is not only mysoginist but transphobic and breaches EHRC guidelines, nods why isnt Jolyon on the case between fox beatings

    Taking the knee is an ableist gesture. What about all those who can't kneel because of physical issues?

    It is revelling in their physical ability to kneel - you can almost *hear* the oppression of the differently abled.
    Yes and any woman or trans girl pre op who happens to be wearing a short skirt.....do I take the knee because the team I work with has decided to and show them all or not take the knee and be looked at as a racist bitch. A hostile work situation if ever there was one. Oh don't wear a short skirt then? Very sexist dictating what I wear surely
    You lot need to chill the eff out about this, you easily triggered snowflakes.

    By the way Angela Rayner is wearing a fairly short skirt in the picture above. Not that it effing matters.

    Give it a bloody rest.
    Gosh not me that needs to chill out in case it eluded you I was being largely tongue in cheek here and have said little about taking the knee till today just got bored of all the arguments so extracted the micturation a little
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    And Malmsbury reckons all the other countries are taking a big gamble by opening up before all embryos have been vaccinated.

    The gamble is being taken by Johnson's Britain and its a massive and reckless one at that.
    Yes, they are betting that they will get their vaccination numbers up by the time the Delta variant starts really saying hello.

    The question is at what point do the vaccines do the job vs the Delta variant, in terms of keeping hospital cases down and deaths down. Hence watching those figures. The cases are probably going to go up.
    The central problem with what we're seeing in this country at the moment is that, the nanosecond the cases start spiking, there's a massive panic that we'll inevitably end up wading waist deep through corpses in a hellscape dominated by burning hospitals, if we don't have the rules to protect us. So the rules have to stay. And stay. And stay. In fact, I'm starting to get concerned that we'll find ourselves back in full lockdown in another few weeks, at the rate things are going and with the panic snowballing as it is.

    So, ultimately, the only way out of Covid is for everybody to catch it - except that, because we're all locked up, that will take so very, very long that by the time we've all had it there'll be a variant loose in the land that's capable of reinfecting people, so we cycle back round to the beginning. Lockdown, to a greater or lesser extent, thus continues forever.
    This approach is, ultimately, economically unsustainable.

    When the country runs out of money, as it inevitably would, all sorts of public services would simply evaporate. The we really would see a hell scape of burning hospitals.

    All along I have hoped it would not ever come to that, but I sometimes I wonder.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    One thing that’s become more noticeable recently, as Labour, and Sir Keir in particular, have tumbled in the polls - the ‘one in a million’ shot, ‘the haymaker’ in boxing terms, has started to be given equal weighting with the data we have, the round by round schooling.

    So Boris being thought of as more popular than Sir Keir on almost every metric, the Conservatives having unprecedented poll leads for a decade old party of government, the losing of safe seats, the lack of bounce from tv interviews/Confessions of a SPAD are brushed aside with “we’ll see’s”, and “you never know’s” as if they are comparable retorts

    The election is not for ages. This is a perfectly logical retort to what the polls are saying now.

    Otherwise all you'll get is, "Ok. So that's the polls then. Thanks for posting."
    Although I have no time for Johnson, I don't particularly want a Labour government, but I have to agree with you. Tories are getting far too complacent and arrogant. That filters through to the less political folk who still vote. That was what I think happened to Theresa May, it wasn't some brilliant campaigning by Corbyn, it was the electorate collectively deciding they would clip her wings and not give her the massive majority predicted. That didn't happen in 2019 GE because by that point more people though Corbyn scary than though Johnson a clown. It is a long time until the next GE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,523
    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    One thing that’s become more noticeable recently, as Labour, and Sir Keir in particular, have tumbled in the polls - the ‘one in a million’ shot, ‘the haymaker’ in boxing terms, has started to be given equal weighting with the data we have, the round by round schooling.

    So Boris being thought of as more popular than Sir Keir on almost every metric, the Conservatives having unprecedented poll leads for a decade old party of government, the losing of safe seats, the lack of bounce from tv interviews/Confessions of a SPAD are brushed aside with “we’ll see’s”, and “you never know’s” as if they are comparable retorts

    The election is not for ages. This is a perfectly logical retort to what the polls are saying now.

    Otherwise all you'll get is, "Ok. So that's the polls then. Thanks for posting."
    No

    Because when I say the Conservatives are a great bet at EVS to get a majority, the “you never know’s” & “what if’s” come out to play

    But if the GE were tomorrow, it would be humongous odds on. EVS factors in a lot if hypothetical slip ups for ‘Bozo’ and it’s still a brilliant bet
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    Wait, you were being sarcastic earlier.

    Um.
    I guess you were, in fact, unaware that, in Europe the Indian disapora was very much concentrated in the UK? We're talking something like 85% of those of Indian descent in Europe living in the UK.
    And given the family travel between here and the UK, that this is almost certainly why we did, in fact, get hit hardest first?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    i think the problem is the conservatives have paid no penalty for governing us badly...look at the polls so why would they bother much now

    Another item to add to Labour's charge sheet. When the main opposition party is so fucking useless, the government can do almost anything it wants, as badly as it wants.

    Just so long as it keeps on stuffing old people's mouths with gold, its position is completely secure.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    509,645 vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom yesterday

    Flag of England 173,443 1st doses / 248,650 2nd doses
    Flag of Scotland 17,846 / 30,065
    Flag of Wales 6,180 / 22,111
    NI 4,138 / 7,212

    Yeah, but variants, innit.

    We'll be starting again soon.

    As Zahawi indicated to JHB this morning.

    Freedom will be yours when we've all had the booster!

    Believe that and you really will believe anything.
    How are you coping with the pubs not reopening last month?

    Oh wait, they did open despite you saying they wouldn't.
    Don't nitpick.

    They are not pubs as you or I know them. It is a huge faff. As is going to the theatre. Or buying a packet of fags from the newsagent.
    That's true. But this little bar I like to go to - Belsize area - you wouldn't even know there was a pandemic on.
    I like that there are no queues at the bar and they all know your name. Really makes a place.
    I tracked down that pub in the end. I have to say @kinabalu was quite right, and I apologize for doubting him. What he didn’t mention is that they have their own dolphinarium at the back! Amazing

    If Carlsberg...
    Why do I suspect a "I fell in love with a dolphin then she dumped me" anecdote is incoming
    I am not sure I see the porpoise of your remark
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    No, that would be a statement of fact.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    I happen to think we're going all the way. If we say the "hurt" started when we let that 2-0 lead slip in the QF against West Germany at the iconic 1970 Mexico WC - thank you Peter "the cat" Bonetti - then we're about to end the 51 years of hurt.

    That's what I think. But what if I'm dead wrong? What if the team IS upset by all the booing gammons, and it leaks that they are, and they crash out early in total ignominy.

    Then Starmer is going to look pretty damn smart. Captain Foresight. And a TRUE patriot as opposed to the cheap and chippy type.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    And Malmsbury reckons all the other countries are taking a big gamble by opening up before all embryos have been vaccinated.

    The gamble is being taken by Johnson's Britain and its a massive and reckless one at that.
    Yes, they are betting that they will get their vaccination numbers up by the time the Delta variant starts really saying hello.

    The question is at what point do the vaccines do the job vs the Delta variant, in terms of keeping hospital cases down and deaths down. Hence watching those figures. The cases are probably going to go up.
    The central problem with what we're seeing in this country at the moment is that, the nanosecond the cases start spiking, there's a massive panic that we'll inevitably end up wading waist deep through corpses in a hellscape dominated by burning hospitals, if we don't have the rules to protect us. So the rules have to stay. And stay. And stay. In fact, I'm starting to get concerned that we'll find ourselves back in full lockdown in another few weeks, at the rate things are going and with the panic snowballing as it is.

    So, ultimately, the only way out of Covid is for everybody to catch it - except that, because we're all locked up, that will take so very, very long that by the time we've all had it there'll be a variant loose in the land that's capable of reinfecting people, so we cycle back round to the beginning. Lockdown, to a greater or lesser extent, thus continues forever.
    This approach is, ultimately, economically unsustainable.

    When the country runs out of money, as it inevitably would, all sorts of public services would simply evaporate. The we really would see a hell scape of burning hospitals.

    All along I have hoped it would not ever come to that, but I sometimes I wonder.
    Yes it unfortunately may mean many people losing lots of money before they finally turn against lockdown
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    That suggests to me that you might be a racist
    Interesting snippet. If I type Black lives matter, I have to leave an extra space between “lives” and “matter” to keep both lower case, otherwise iOS autocorrects it to Black Lives Matter and won’t let me change the capital letters
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2021
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    1st

    Like the Tories until SKS goes

    Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
    He's had a year. That went well.

    Be fun to see what he can do with another.

    Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
    Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
    Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.

    I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.

    They're not wrong.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,725
    edited June 2021
    63 hospitalisations from 32k cases of Delta. That's a rate of just 0.2% so far, we would normally expect around 5% of cases to present severe enough symptoms to result in hospitalisation. There's also no word on how many of these cases were precautionary and how many resulted in more than one night in hospital.

    Given how the variant data lags and needs tracing back to specific people with follow ups I would be surprised if that 0.2% hospitalisation rate gets any higher, in fact I'd expect it to go down as cumulative factors start coming into play with more people getting their first and second doses.

    Look at it this way, where we'd previously have expected 1000 people to be hospitalised, we're now only seeing 38, in addition other reports from the NHs chiefs have said that case severity is serverely down and far fewer people turning up hospital are requiring any significant interventions and are being sent home on the same day.

    We're genuinely in the clear and there is simply no reason to delay June 21st. There is no conceivable route to an NHS crash and that is the reason for having any NPIs. Boris needs to tell all of the scientists to get back in their corner.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    i think the problem is the conservatives have paid no penalty for governing us badly...look at the polls so why would they bother much now

    Another item to add to Labour's charge sheet. When the main opposition party is so fucking useless, the government can do almost anything it wants, as badly as it wants.

    Just so long as it keeps on stuffing old people's mouths with gold, its position is completely secure.
    Sadly true.

    And also while young people predominantly support parties that are happy to let them!. So what if their core vote is being mortgaged to the hilt!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    Surely it's only bigotry if it is untrue? I have no idea if it is.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited June 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
    He’s also clearly scared of a challenge, now, so he’s appealing to the hardcore activists, who are all Woke af

    Trouble is the UK is very very different to the Labour base. So with every bit of cack-handed Wokery like this he alienates more voters, tanking his polling further - thus making a challenge more likely
    Funny thing is Scotland aren't taking the knee. I thought they'd be taking two at least.
    Perhaps they would risk taking a knee in humilitatem of some unpink English people whose ancestors the Scots once helped enslave

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    It does. I do feel sorry for him now, because he obviously doesn’t really believe some of the things he’s saying or doing, but is desperate to be seen, heard and liked so tries anything
    He’s also clearly scared of a challenge, now, so he’s appealing to the hardcore activists, who are all Woke af

    Trouble is the UK is very very different to the Labour base. So with every bit of cack-handed Wokery like this he alienates more voters, tanking his polling further - thus making a challenge more likely
    Funny thing is Scotland aren't taking the knee. I thought they'd be taking two at least.
    Scotland is not woke, despite Nicola’s best efforts. The team saw the writing on the wall with what their fans would think.

    Alternatively, they are just doing the opposite to the English
    Almost certainly the latter
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,585
    kinabalu said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    Ordinary people don't go to the theatre.
    Don't they?

    Estimates vary, but 40% plus go at least once per year.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I am a genius. The day after I predicted that the Greens would supplant the Lib Dems. Uncanny. Sometimes I spook myself

    Now, about those aleeyuns

    People have been talking about the Greens supplanting the Lib Dems for months.

    If you're a genius for noticing this yesterday, it's a rather slow one.
    But they don’t have my immaculate timing. I can subconsciously sense moodshifts in the nation, the planet, the species. I am the unwitting conduit of divine foreknowledge

    I should charge. But I won’t
    Immaculate setting aside the fact the previous YouGov poll already had the Greens ahead.

    It's like having an immaculate conception, by pure coincidence immediately after you've been having lots of unprotected sex.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    1st

    Like the Tories until SKS goes

    Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
    He's had a year. That went well.

    Be fun to see what he can do with another.

    Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
    Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
    Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.

    I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.

    They're not wrong.
    You are deluded old bean. In fact you are Matt Hancock and I claim my £5
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,900
    edited June 2021
    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    Ordinary people don't go to the theatre.
    They go to the cinemas, which are open.
    I was going to say "who wants to sit through a two hour long film in a stupid gag," but I guess in the cinema you can actually dispense with them - if you buy a drink and snack and then (pretend to) consume them very, very slowly. Hmmmm... wonder if there's anything worth watching right now?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    kle4 said:

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    Surely it's only bigotry if it is untrue? I have no idea if it is.
    No it is not untrue. It has been known for years.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    as regards cases when we had sinilar restrictions last summer cases flatlined in the 500 to 1000 range. They didnt start rising until September. So there is a difference there
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,861

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    Wait, you were being sarcastic earlier.

    Um.
    I guess you were, in fact, unaware that, in Europe the Indian disapora was very much concentrated in the UK? We're talking something like 85% of those of Indian descent in Europe living in the UK.
    And given the family travel between here and the UK, that this is almost certainly why we did, in fact, get hit hardest first?
    I'm sure we got hit hardest first by the Indian variant. But your post before sought to explain the discrepancy wholly in terms of the Indian variant which begged the question why hasn't Yurp been affected? Either they have but haven't tested, or there is some strange insularity about the Indian variant whereby despite having 15% of those of Indian descent in non-UK Europe (of what kind of number) they managed to avoid it being seeded there. Weeks if not months ago.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    i think the problem is the conservatives have paid no penalty for governing us badly...look at the polls so why would they bother much now

    Another item to add to Labour's charge sheet. When the main opposition party is so fucking useless, the government can do almost anything it wants, as badly as it wants.

    Just so long as it keeps on stuffing old people's mouths with gold, its position is completely secure.
    Polls are a relative not absolute index. Anyway, in reply to citycentre it's voters as awhole who make judgement on how they have been governed. Perhaps a plurality think they have been governed well and in particular all the alternatives are worse.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    That suggests to me that you might be a racist
    Then you'd be wrong.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    kinabalu said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    Ordinary people don't go to the theatre.
    Oh yes they do...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,861

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    1st

    Like the Tories until SKS goes

    Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
    He's had a year. That went well.

    Be fun to see what he can do with another.

    Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
    Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
    Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.

    I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.

    They're not wrong.
    What are your mates down under saying about it all. The friend I spoke to (in Brisbane) is super frustrated at the vaccine rollout. Like a huge prison is how he described it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    No, that would be a statement of fact.
    Labour defends Tory-voting farmers against Boris selling them down the river? Labour sides with Michael Gove over Liz Truss?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,861
    MaxPB said:

    63 hospitalisations from 32k cases of Delta. That's a rate of just 0.2% so far, we would normally expect around 5% of cases to present severe enough symptoms to result in hospitalisation. There's also no word on how many of these cases were precautionary and how many resulted in more than one night in hospital.

    Given how the variant data lags and needs tracing back to specific people with follow ups I would be surprised if that 0.2% hospitalisation rate gets any higher, in fact I'd expect it to go down as cumulative factors start coming into play with more people getting their first and second doses.

    Look at it this way, where we'd previously have expected 1000 people to be hospitalised, we're now only seeing 38, in addition other reports from the NHs chiefs have said that case severity is serverely down and far fewer people turning up hospital are requiring any significant interventions and are being sent home on the same day.

    We're genuinely in the clear and there is simply no reason to delay June 21st. There is no conceivable route to an NHS crash and that is the reason for having any NPIs. Boris needs to tell all of the scientists to get back in their corner.

    You evidently haven't kept up with PB's viral epidemiologists all of whom heartily recommend a few more weeks restrictions. Just to be sure.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
    Yes cases wrent rising like this last year until Late September. By October we were in tiers
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,725

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
    0.2% hospitalisation rate for vaccinated people vs 5% for unvaccinated people. We're in the clear. Boris would be a fool to give into the scientists.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,755
    kle4 said:

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    Surely it's only bigotry if it is untrue? I have no idea if it is.
    We've had this discussion before. Australian farming standards are certainly lower than ours.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    It’s disappointing that positive tests have risen day on day again after a fall yesterday.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,297

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    No. Only 7 more hospitalisations, taking the number to 1,058.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193

    It’s disappointing that positive tests have risen day on day again after a fall yesterday.

    Who cares if they're not ill?
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    also remember when cases were rising like this last year we already had the 10pm hospitality curfew and werent even considering a full reopening with nightclubs etc
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
    0.2% hospitalisation rate for vaccinated people vs 5% for unvaccinated people. We're in the clear. Boris would be a fool to give into the scientists.
    Yes.

    Probably means full lockdown by the end of July.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,238

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    No, that would be a statement of fact.
    Pointless though. Cheap beef from Australia is one of the reasons people voted for Brexit. It's a feature, not a bug.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,725

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
    Yes cases wrent rising like this last year until Late September. By October we were in tiers
    Cases aren't resulting in significant hospitalisations for vaccinated people. Groups 1-9 are all fully vaccinated. They account for well over 95% of previous hospitalisations. If people who choose not to take the vaccine die or end up in hospital then they've made that choice and can fuck off and die.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,543
    edited June 2021
    MrEd said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    That suggests to me that you might be a racist
    Interesting snippet. If I type Black lives matter, I have to leave an extra space between “lives” and “matter” to keep both lower case, otherwise iOS autocorrects it to Black Lives Matter and won’t let me change the capital letters
    Fake news.

    Mine gives me the 'Black lives matter' option no problem, no need for extra spaces.


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Folk have been trained for 15 months to follow case numbers. First item on the news most days.
    You can't just expect them to ignore them now. Most haven't seen malmesburys's graphs or read Max's expertise on vaccines.
    If cases don't matter now, then it is the job of the government to be bellowing that from the rooftops.
    Because, as long as they don't, then cases really do matter.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    It’s disappointing that positive tests have risen day on day again after a fall yesterday.

    Fretting about the day to day change in the "by reporting date" figure is a quick way to insanity.

    If you insist on looking at by reporting date then at least take the 7 day average.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    201,607 308,128

    Total needles in arms passes 70 million.

    Great to see half a million done in a day and fantastic to see 70 million passed. 200k first doses is a very good number too.

    I wonder how long before 18+ are freely invited to get vaccinations in England?
    The value of the vaccine currency is falling, Philip. PHE is intent on devaluing it.

    New variants, you see.
    Will be fascinating to see if the vaccine bounce is still in effect when we get to October and the Government folds to new demands from SAGE that we lock down for another six months because (a) most people haven't had their third jab and (b) the Omicron-6 variant is 37% more transmissible than the Mu-4 variant.
    The vaccine bounce is already fading because the government's own health body is trying to undermine it. They are behaving far worse than any vaxx-ambivalent or anti-vaxxers are.

    And so the government is in the extraordinary position of trumpeting a vaccine that it is at the same time starting to undermine.

    What's important here, clearly, is control. What else could it be?
    Control freakery, terror of fucking up, health and safety fascism and the willingness of the public to plod on with weary obedience probably all feed into it. Meanwhile, the population of Germany is getting ready to fly off on holiday (and nobody there is shitting themselves over the fact that, with that many millions of people leaving the country at once, some of them are almost bound to bring the dreaded exotic variants back with them.)

    At this rate we're going to be the last country in the developed world still titting about with distancing rules and capacity limits and bloody gags everywhere.
    Indeed, when we should have been the first to leave.

    And do not think there won't be implications for being the last to leave,or not leaving restrictions at all. When the markets work out every other developed country has grown a pair except for Johnson's Britain, investors will start to differentiate in terms of debt and currency movements.

    Then we will really see the completely bogus notion that there is some kind of 'safety' in keeping these restrictions and opening up is 'reckless'

    Right now, keeping the restrictions is a gargantuan gamble.
    Nah. We as a country are lapping it up.

    World leading vaccine program leading to....fuck all.

    I was speaking to a colleague in North America yesterday - super excited that Europe is opening up to them. I felt quite embarrassed.

    But it's OK. @Andy_Cooke has explained that it is only the UK which has had the bad luck to have had the Indian variant.
    Wait, you were being sarcastic earlier.

    Um.
    I guess you were, in fact, unaware that, in Europe the Indian disapora was very much concentrated in the UK? We're talking something like 85% of those of Indian descent in Europe living in the UK.
    And given the family travel between here and the UK, that this is almost certainly why we did, in fact, get hit hardest first?
    I'm sure we got hit hardest first by the Indian variant. But your post before sought to explain the discrepancy wholly in terms of the Indian variant which begged the question why hasn't Yurp been affected? Either they have but haven't tested, or there is some strange insularity about the Indian variant whereby despite having 15% of those of Indian descent in non-UK Europe (of what kind of number) they managed to avoid it being seeded there. Weeks if not months ago.
    Did you read the post in question?

    I'll attach the graph again.


    If a new variant (whether Delta vs Alpha, or Alpha vs Original Flavour Covid) starts to grow while the previous variant is declining, then its growth is masked by the overall downwards trend for several iterations.

    We saw exactly this early this year, whilst people were asking "why has Europe not seen the spike that the UK is having?"

    They did. Although there spike was later, the UK was on the upsurge whilst the rest of Europe was still on the decline (which was gradually less and less of what it should have been as the new variant became dominant). And the question was being asked when other European countries were still in iterations 1-5 and we were somewhere like 13-16 (or even later) on that graph.

    Last time it was because it originated in Kent.
    This time it's because we vigorously and repeatedly imported it to seed it again and again and again to get it to spark and grow sooner. Even then, it's taken a month and a half or more to get well and truly onto the upslope.

    Other countries are now saying that it's inside their borders. So they're in iterations 1-4 or so.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    "Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/11/keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-failure-of-leadership-in-anti-racism-row

    OK, Starmer is crap. I yield. That’s just so clumsy it’s cringe. It also smacks of terrible desperation
    I happen to think we're going all the way. If we say the "hurt" started when we let that 2-0 lead slip in the QF against West Germany at the iconic 1970 Mexico WC - thank you Peter "the cat" Bonetti - then we're about to end the 51 years of hurt.

    That's what I think. But what if I'm dead wrong? What if the team IS upset by all the booing gammons, and it leaks that they are, and they crash out early in total ignominy.

    Then Starmer is going to look pretty damn smart. Captain Foresight. And a TRUE patriot as opposed to the cheap and chippy type.
    I’d put more money on a Labour victory at the next GE than England winning the Euros.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    edited June 2021
    If the restrictions are so onerous, why is GDP only down 3.7% compared to pre Covid?

    The answer is the restrictions aren't onerous, most people are going about their lives in a perfectly normal way.

    I don't personally know one single person who cares less what happens on 21 June. Nobody has even mentioned it to me.

    PB posters are, as usual, way out of touch, full of idealistic anoraks just desperate to work themselves up into a state of hysteria.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dixiedean said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Folk have been trained for 15 months to follow case numbers. First item on the news most days.
    You can't just expect them to ignore them now. Most haven't seen malmesburys's graphs or read Max's expertise on vaccines.
    If cases don't matter now, then it is the job of the government to be bellowing that from the rooftops.
    Because, as long as they don't, then cases really do matter.
    And they'll probably be running at about 20,000 per day in about a fortnight, accompanied by absolute mass panic in every newspaper and on every TV bulletin.

    Lockdown soon after that, I imagine.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    kle4 said:

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    Surely it's only bigotry if it is untrue? I have no idea if it is.
    No it is not untrue. It has been known for years.
    Surely their lower standards as a consequence of the evil English colonial oppression they suffered for so long?
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    MaxPB said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
    Yes cases wrent rising like this last year until Late September. By October we were in tiers
    Cases aren't resulting in significant hospitalisations for vaccinated people. Groups 1-9 are all fully vaccinated. They account for well over 95% of previous hospitalisations. If people who choose not to take the vaccine die or end up in hospital then they've made that choice and can fuck off and die.
    well maybe you could have used nicer language there lol. The problem we have is with a full reopening cases will continue to accelerate upwards and then we may have a problem. I have heard that we could be at 20000 cases per day soon which would likely cause significantly more problems
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    No. Only 7 more hospitalisations, taking the number to 1,058.
    The key figure is Mechanical Ventilation.

    You will be getting a fair whack of people "with covid" in admissions now and you might well be seeing people being admitted on a precautionary basis who previously wouldn't have been due to having more capacity now.

    However you won't be mechanically ventilating people on a whim. So if that figure starts rising with any significance then you adopt the brown trousers
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,725
    Sean_F said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    No. Only 7 more hospitalisations, taking the number to 1,058.
    Even that doesn't matter so much, it's how many of the people ending up in hospital have refused the vaccine. By all accounts it is the vast majority as only 63 fully vaccinated people who have had the delta variant have ended up in hospital which is a tiny proportion of the total from the last three weeks.

    It would be immoral to continue any lockdown measures on the basis of vaccine refusers being at risk. They've made that choice and must now live by it or go and get the vaccine.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    1st

    Like the Tories until SKS goes

    Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
    He's had a year. That went well.

    Be fun to see what he can do with another.

    Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
    Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
    Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.

    I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.

    They're not wrong.
    Donald Trump was/is a uniquely toxic and incompetent politician. There's no read across.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    That suggests to me that you might be a racist
    Interesting snippet. If I type Black lives matter, I have to leave an extra space between “lives” and “matter” to keep both lower case, otherwise iOS autocorrects it to Black Lives Matter and won’t let me change the capital letters
    Fake news.

    Mine gives me the 'Black lives matter' option no problem, no need for extra spaces.


    Actually it isn’t: it’s exactly what I typed in and it automatically corrected to capital letters.

    Anyway, who are you to challenge my experience? Surely the behaviour of the oppressor.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    This is why the lower vaccination uptake in certain areas of the country matters. The govt could sell not removing restrictions or even imposing them as to protect the unvaccinated
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391
    MaxPB said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Boris not looking forward to Monday...
    Yes cases wrent rising like this last year until Late September. By October we were in tiers
    Cases aren't resulting in significant hospitalisations for vaccinated people. Groups 1-9 are all fully vaccinated. They account for well over 95% of previous hospitalisations. If people who choose not to take the vaccine die or end up in hospital then they've made that choice and can fuck off and die.
    Are groups 1 to 9 fully vaccinated?
    There sure were hundreds being done with me as recently as Tuesday. And I took the first available date. Group 9.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    dixiedean said:

    8125 cases, 17 deaths.

    Should I start going all Tweak yet?

    Folk have been trained for 15 months to follow case numbers. First item on the news most days.
    You can't just expect them to ignore them now. Most haven't seen malmesburys's graphs or read Max's expertise on vaccines.
    If cases don't matter now, then it is the job of the government to be bellowing that from the rooftops.
    Because, as long as they don't, then cases really do matter.
    Yes, it's beyond ridiculous. People still don't grasp what breaking the link means – we are completely obsessed with positive tests regardless of whether people are actually sick!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Labour's latest tactic is anti-Australian bigotry: "We know that many of Australia’s food and farming standards are lower than our own."

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/government-must-not-sell-out-our-farmers-at-the-g7

    No, that would be a statement of fact.
    Labour defends Tory-voting farmers against Boris selling them down the river? Labour sides with Michael Gove over Liz Truss?
    If it is the right thing to do that is sensible politics. Farming is still something a lot of people care about even though they generally have no understanding of it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MikeL said:

    If the restrictions are so onerous, why is GDP only down 3.7% compared to pre Covid?

    The answer is the restrictions aren't onerous, most people are going about their lives in a perfectly normal way.

    I don't personally know one single person who cares less what happens on 21 June. Nobody has even mentioned it to me.

    PB, as usual, is way out of touch, full of idealistic anoraks just desperate to work themselves up into a state of hysteria.

    The fact that clever businesses are finding ways to supply people with stuff at home doesn't mean that everything is rosy in the garden. Not everyone is looking forward to an eternity of mask wearing and social gatherings limited to six people, forcibly sat at a table, indoors.

    To say nothing of the vast number of entertainment and hospitality businesses that can't trade profitably under social distancing, or can't trade at all. Unless the Government is prepared to prop them up with grants for the rest of time then, ultimately, they will all go bust if this bullshit drags on for long enough.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,587
    Week on week for England, Tests up 19%, cases up 33% and hospital beds occupied up 10% (79). Still struggling to see how it's growing quickly enough to be a problem before vaccines get to where they're going.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    1st

    Like the Tories until SKS goes

    Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
    He's had a year. That went well.

    Be fun to see what he can do with another.

    Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
    Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
    Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.

    I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.

    They're not wrong.
    Donald Trump was/is a uniquely toxic and incompetent politician. There's no read across.
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1403313660584464392

    I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?

    Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...

    image
    image
    There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
    That suggests to me that you might be a racist
    Interesting snippet. If I type Black lives matter, I have to leave an extra space between “lives” and “matter” to keep both lower case, otherwise iOS autocorrects it to Black Lives Matter and won’t let me change the capital letters
    Fake news.

    Mine gives me the 'Black lives matter' option no problem, no need for extra spaces.


    Actually it isn’t: it’s exactly what I typed in and it automatically corrected to capital letters.

    Anyway, who are you to challenge my experience? Surely the behaviour of the oppressor.
    Hello @kinabalu. Quick question - given what Trump faced in 2020, which US President do you think would have been re-elected in those circumstances?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,090
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson says our vaccine programme is so successful we can donate 100 million vaccines to the third world.

    But its not so successful that ordinary people can go to the theatre or have a week in Benidorm.

    FFS how much longer are people going to put up with this self-contradictory bullsh*t.

    Ordinary people don't go to the theatre.
    Don't they?

    Estimates vary, but 40% plus go at least once per year.
    Really? Ok. I'd have guessed much lower.
This discussion has been closed.