According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
In recent time and context, Colin Kaepernick.
Yes, but why did he specifically genuflect? Has he ever given the reason for the one knee thing?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
As for antibodies & protection, differing vaccine and infection combinations will give differing protection (I think !)
The decision on 12 - 17 year olds is certainly very very easy now.
Given the existence of 5 million unused AZN jabs in the UK (and presumably more being delivered every day), it's not clear to me why the government doesn't offer walk-in AZN jabs to anyone who wants them.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
Because the government don’t want some photogenic young lady to die of a blood clot, photos of her in hospital covered in tubes on the front pages.
Remember when Leah Betts died from E, and scared our generation sh!tless about drugs? Imagine the same scenario, but with the massive headlines “Killed by the vaccine”
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
Mr Zoe says base R is 6 for Indian variant.
Yes. The... er... numbers above are only slightly better than the analysis of Prof Peston, say... but they are indicative.
We don't have herd immunity yet. It will require a very high uptake on the vaccine in the *whole population* and even then would require vaccines to be very very good at stopping the spread of disease.
According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
In recent time and context, Colin Kaepernick.
Yes, but why did he specifically genuflect? Has he ever given the reason for the one knee thing?
Yes, he said it was a protest against racial injustice and police brutality. His protest was during the national anthem before matches, so everyone else would have been standing tall. Not sure why the one knee gesture specifically though.
According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
In recent time and context, Colin Kaepernick.
Yes, but why did he specifically genuflect? Has he ever given the reason for the one knee thing?
At first he refused to stand, he would sit on the bench alone. He was criticized by veterans for that, but he said he could never stand for the anthem, so he said instead he would kneel as half way between the two and allow him to line up with his teammates.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
Why let facts get in the way of a good story?
Those aren't facts.
I have no idea whether they are. What I do know is that students, whether undergrad or postgrad like to shock people*, and so do the media. The facts maybe a little muddled.
* "This House will under no circumstances fight for its King and country,"
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
In recent time and context, Colin Kaepernick.
Yes, but why did he specifically genuflect? Has he ever given the reason for the one knee thing?
From Wikipedia.
Kaepernick and his 49ers teammate Eric Reid said they choose to kneel during the anthem to call attention to the issues of racial inequality and police brutality. "After hours of careful consideration, and even a visit from Nate Boyer, a retired Green Beret and former NFL player, we came to the conclusion that we should kneel, rather than sit, ... during the anthem, as a peaceful protest," said Reid. "We chose to kneel because it's a respectful gesture. I remember thinking our posture was like a flag flown at half-mast to mark a tragedy."
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The NFL has now moved to a gesture of players linking arms. Some choose to take a knee before all of this, then stand for the anthem, again as a comprise. There are a very small number who insist on taking a knee or another gesture during the anthem e.g. blsck power fist, but they are now a tiny minority.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
Mr Zoe says base R is 6 for Indian variant.
Yes. The... er... numbers above are only slightly better than the analysis of Prof Peston, say... but they are indicative.
We don't have herd immunity yet. It will require a very high uptake on the vaccine in the *whole population* and even then would require vaccines to be very very good at stopping the spread of disease.
It's going to need a combination of vaccination and infection. Unlock, keep vaccinating then start going back through the elderly for a third (different vax) like painting the forth bridge once we're through everyone over 12.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Or perhaps Americans have too much self confidence to give two shits about something so trivial. I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
The mad paranoia was there all along. It's an excellent way of selling newspapers.
Now that we can't blame Europe any more, though I'm sure The Express will try, it will land elsewhere.
I ask again. Can the PBers who use phrases like "heading for trouble" and "riding the rollercoaster" please explain what they mean by this, in terms of malign outcomes?
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You mean they aren't doing million person national gatherings with massive packed crowds now?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
Mr Zoe says base R is 6 for Indian variant.
Yes. The... er... numbers above are only slightly better than the analysis of Prof Peston, say... but they are indicative.
We don't have her immunity yet. It will require a very high uptake on the vaccine in the *whole population* and even then would require vaccines to be very very good at stopping the spread of disease.
The thing is, if vaccines keep hospitalisations sufficiently low, you can get to herd immunity - wherever that may be - through a combination of ongoing vaccination and infection, without putting excessive strain on health services.
That approach would be bad for some people, but maintainng restricitions will be bad for some people too (probably less bad but for more people).
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
In recent time and context, Colin Kaepernick.
And it was selected by him, in discussion with military veterans, as a respectful form of protest.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
I ask again. Can the PBers who use phrases like "heading for trouble" and "riding the rollercoaster" please explain what they mean by this, in terms of malign outcomes?
"heading for trouble" = "Things are looking dicey" "riding the rollercoaster" = "Things are looking dicey and a bit up and down" "Things are looking dicey" = "Brown trouser time" "Brown trouser time" = "heading for trouble"
At SOME point between claiming “there are absolutely no checks” and going on to claim “these checks are too onerous”, there MUST BE a moment when you realise “oh gosh, the thing we signed includes checks, seems we lied to everyone, OOPS”. ~AA https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1402638431575064580
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
I know, that's what I said.
Well, people got scared and changed their behaviour....
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
I ask again. Can the PBers who use phrases like "heading for trouble" and "riding the rollercoaster" please explain what they mean by this, in terms of malign outcomes?
"heading for trouble" = "Things are looking dicey" "riding the rollercoaster" = "Things are looking dicey and a bit up and down" "Things are looking dicey" = "Brown trouser time" "Brown trouser time" = "heading for trouble"
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
VIRGINIA 2021 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY with 97% reported (mostly Early Voting not yet counted)
GOVERNOR Terry McAuliffe (he won every county & independent city in VA) 303,067 62.3% Jennifer Carroll Foy 96,205 19.8 Jennifer McClellan 56,398 11.6 Justin Fairfax 17,227 3.5 Lee Carter 13,487 2.8 Total reported 486,384
LIEUTENANT GOV Hala Ayala 176,291 39.1% Sam Rasoul 114,018 25.3 Mark Levine 52,769 11.7 Andria McClellan 50,024 11.1 Sean Perryman 38,190 8.5 Xavier Warren 19,665 4.4 Total reported 450,957
ATTORNEY GENERAL Mark Herring (incumbent) 268,038 56.5% Jay Jones 206,107 43.5 Total reported 474,145
NYT ($) Terry McAuliffe Wins Democratic Nomination for Governor in Virginia Mr. McAuliffe, who previously served as governor, overcame four rivals, benefiting from the support of the party establishment. His victory set up a general election race against a wealthy Republican, Glenn Youngkin.
. . . Positioning himself as a political outsider and having already spent $12 million of his own fortune, Mr. Youngkin is poised to make Virginia the most competitive election in the country this fall. He’s linking Mr. McAuliffe and Mr. Northam to argue that Virginia Democrats have taken a moderate state sharply to the left since gaining total control of the State Capitol.
Recognizing the threat Mr. Youngkin poses, Mr. McAuliffe devoted a significant part of his victory speech to attacking his opponent, linking the financier to former President Donald J. Trump and outlining his conservative views on cultural issues. . . .
I ask again. Can the PBers who use phrases like "heading for trouble" and "riding the rollercoaster" please explain what they mean by this, in terms of malign outcomes?
"heading for trouble" = "Things are looking dicey" "riding the rollercoaster" = "Things are looking dicey and a bit up and down" "Things are looking dicey" = "Brown trouser time" "Brown trouser time" = "heading for trouble"
hope that helps.
No, not really 😂
That will be £1568.34 including VAT and fees. Make the cheque payable to "Independent of Reality Plc", please.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
I know, that's what I said.
Well, people got scared and changed their behaviour....
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
Businesses did it because they knew what the government would end up doing before the government knew themselves.
I'm thinking more about the second wave. It was obvious where things were going, and people kept on behaving as they were until the government cancelled Christmas and told everyone to suck it up until the vaccines had done their work.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
I know, that's what I said.
Well, people got scared and changed their behaviour....
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
In the two weeks before we pulled my child out of school it became massively harder to find parking near the school as everyone stayed home.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Or perhaps Americans have too much self confidence to give two shits about something so trivial. I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
The mad paranoia was there all along. It's an excellent way of selling newspapers.
Now that we can't blame Europe any more, though I'm sure The Express will try, it will land elsewhere.
"Europe" will still be blamed, or more specifically Germany or France. Scotland will continue to blame England, and Northern England will blame Southern England. Those in Southern England will blame Oxbridge graduates and Oxford will blame Cambridge. No one will blame Wales because no one cares.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
"A bit less".
People's behaviour will have massively changed. Kids won't be going to school. People won't be crowded on trains going to work.
People will be staying in their shacks. And when they leave them, they'll be covering their mouth with some kind of.... ohhh... cloth.
The evidence of behavioural change is utterly overwhelming.
Yet you choose to ignore it because:
(a) you are so wedded to your theory, that you discount all evidence against it or (b) you are actually retarded
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
In terms of hospitalisations, how has that translated?
Wouldn't be visible yet, either way (whether good or bad news). The rise started around the 20th of May and the most recent hospitalisation news would be around the 1st of June. Any rise would be minimal by now.
We'll see the current values reflected in hospitalisations as of the 18th or so, which we should know by the 23rd or so.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
Mr Zoe says base R is 6 for Indian variant.
Yes. The... er... numbers above are only slightly better than the analysis of Prof Peston, say... but they are indicative.
We don't have her immunity yet. It will require a very high uptake on the vaccine in the *whole population* and even then would require vaccines to be very very good at stopping the spread of disease.
The thing is, if vaccines keep hospitalisations sufficiently low, you can get to herd immunity - wherever that may be - through a combination of ongoing vaccination and infection, without putting excessive strain on health services.
That approach would be bad for some people, but maintainng restricitions will be bad for some people too (probably less bad but for more people).
I remember being... criticised a while back for pointing out that given what we knew about COVID and the vaccines, it was unlikely that COVID would die out though vaccine acquired immunity.
As in, we unlock, cases would rise. The vaccinations *should* keep deaths and hospitalisations down, but that is what the government and their advisers worry about.
NEW JERSEY 2021 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY with 96% reported
GOVERNOR Jack Ciattarelli 157,346 49.4% Philip Rizzo 82,662 25.9 Hirsh Singh 68,481 21.5 Brian Levine 10,254 3.2 Total reported 318,743
NYT ($) Ciattarelli Defeats Trump Loyalists in G.O.P. Primary to Take on Murphy Jack Ciattarelli won New Jersey’s Republican primary and will face Philip D. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent, in November.
Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former lawmaker, beat back challenges from candidates loyal to former President Donald J. Trump to win Tuesday’s Republican primary in New Jersey, setting the stage for one of only two governor’s races in the nation in November.
Mr. Ciattarelli, a moderate former assemblyman making his second bid for governor, will now face Gov. Philip D. Murphy, who ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination and is hoping to ride high approval ratings for his handling of the pandemic to a second term.
Democrats control all branches of government in New Jersey and outnumber Republicans by nearly 1.1 million voters.
Still, Mr. Murphy’s run is dogged by nearly a half-century of history: The last Democrat to be re-elected governor in New Jersey was Brendan T. Byrne, in 1977.
Mr. Murphy’s favorable ratings have slipped by about seven percentage points since the start of the second wave of the pandemic in October 2020, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, but are still at a robust 47 percent. . . .
Mr. Murphy’s handling of the pandemic earned high marks from 31 percent of residents, according to the poll. But only 7 percent said he deserved an “A” grade on tax policies, a perennial, bread-and-butter voter issue in New Jersey, where residents pay some of the highest taxes in the country.
Mr. Ciattarelli’s showing among his Republican base is considered likely to dictate the tenor and policy focus of the campaign. The election will come nearly a year into the first term of President Biden, a Democrat, making it an early bellwether of the electorate’s mood as the midterm congressional elections approach. Virginia is the only other state with a race for governor. . . .
Turnout was low, with fewer than 1 in 5 registered Republicans voting.
Political analysts said the results could pressure Mr. Ciattarelli to strike national themes popular with Trump supporters instead of the good government and fiscal responsibility motifs that are more likely to resonate with mainstream Republicans and the state’s 2.4 million independent voters.
Mr. Ciattarelli in 2015 called Mr. Trump a “charlatan.” In last month’s debate, when asked if he supported the former president, he said, “I supported Donald Trump’s policies.”
“If he’s got to look over his shoulder every time something happens to make sure the Trump wing of the party is still with him, that’s going to be a serious constraint for him,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. . . .
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
I know, that's what I said.
Well, people got scared and changed their behaviour....
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
Businesses did it because they knew what the government would end up doing before the government knew themselves.
I'm thinking more about the second wave. It was obvious where things were going, and people kept on behaving as they were until the government cancelled Christmas and told everyone to suck it up until the vaccines had done their work.
That wasn't true up here. We have been on continuous restrictions since September 18. Toon was a ghost town in the autumn. Folk got smart and changed their behaviour.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
Various people have said that, but no medical person, that I know of, has said "we are taking in patients who are less sick"...
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
I'm not talking about hospitalisations now, I'm talking about hospitalisations later.
So fired up by righteous patriotic anger is he that he is literally forced to support a foreign team. Because that's the English way.
I suspect that patriotism is not the source of his faux anger, more the undisguised racism of the type of people that want to follow the twatish little peacock.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
I know, that's what I said.
Well, people got scared and changed their behaviour....
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
Businesses did it because they knew what the government would end up doing before the government knew themselves.
I'm thinking more about the second wave. It was obvious where things were going, and people kept on behaving as they were until the government cancelled Christmas and told everyone to suck it up until the vaccines had done their work.
That wasn't true up here. We have been on continuous restrictions since September 18. Toon was a ghost town in the autumn. Folk got smart and changed their behaviour.
I'm talking about domestic behaviour. Christmas would have been a massive disaster (much worse than it actually was) had the government banned it.
People talk about cases and hospitalisations surging across the Northwest but that's completely misleading. Its not the Northwest, its a few hotspots in places where the vaccine has been refused. Exceptions, not the rule.
I'm from Warrington in the Northwest, just a few miles from Bolton and Blackburn and Darwen, and literally neighbouring Greater Manchester. For much of the pandemic Sky's in-hospital reporting came from Warrington Hospital.
As of the latest data on the Coronavirus.data.gov.uk site across the entirety of Warrington and Halton there are a grand total in hospital of: Two people. Not over 200 as there were throughout January, just 2. None on ventilation.
Across Preston, South Ribble and Chorley there's a grand total of: Four people.
In my area of Knowsley. Hospitalisation rates have gone up in the last 7 days, according to the website, by 200%. It is now 3 people. Apparently our area is well above national average and the last death was early may.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
The interesting thing is, aside from businesses taking it upon themselves to get people working from home at the start of this, I don't think the UK has experienced people locking themselves away.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
At quite a few companies, WFH started in the weeks before the first actual lockdown.
I know, that's what I said.
Well, people got scared and changed their behaviour....
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
In the two weeks before we pulled my child out of school it became massively harder to find parking near the school as everyone stayed home.
The change was massively obvious.
Yeah - I got a bit of... pushback from She Who Must Be Obeyed regarding buying N95s, alcohol based hand sanitiser, disposable gloves, and a range of dry groceries. Before the panic buying started on all of those....
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
"A bit less".
People's behaviour will have massively changed. Kids won't be going to school. People won't be crowded on trains going to work.
People will be staying in their shacks. And when they leave them, they'll be covering their mouth with some kind of.... ohhh... cloth.
The evidence of behavioural change is utterly overwhelming.
Yet you choose to ignore it because:
(a) you are so wedded to your theory, that you discount all evidence against it or (b) you are actually retarded
Which one is it?
Why are you such a twat??
India is completely different to the UK, they have vast shanty towns where people live on top of each other, social distancing by staying at home in large areas of India is not possible. Is that so hard to understand?
My point is that despite these living conditions in India cases have reduced by 75% in a month, thats all.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
The beds occupied number is encouraging, but it is a volatile number and we should therefore be wary of reading too much into it.
I see no evidence that hospital bed usage is rising at more than a 20% week-over-week level. And this should be the key metric - because if younger people spend less time in hospital than older ones, then the system can survive a higher number of per day hospitalisations than at previous peaks.
Worth noting that a 20% week-over-week rise is fine, because vaccinations will be closing down the vulnerable population, and therefore we won't end up with the NHS being swamped.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Or perhaps Americans have too much self confidence to give two shits about something so trivial. I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
The mad paranoia was there all along. It's an excellent way of selling newspapers.
Now that we can't blame Europe any more, though I'm sure The Express will try, it will land elsewhere.
"Europe" will still be blamed, or more specifically Germany or France. Scotland will continue to blame England, and Northern England will blame Southern England. Those in Southern England will blame Oxbridge graduates and Oxford will blame Cambridge. No one will blame Wales because no one cares.
And Cambridge graduates will blame no-one, because we know our place.
Seattle Times ($) Editorial - A high-profile COVID-19 cautionary tale: Golfer Jon Rahm
Professional golfer Jon Rahm nearly fell to his knees on Saturday after learning that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and had to withdraw from the Memorial Tournament in Ohio. In that moment of anguish, did he give any thought to everyone else affected by his decision not to vaccinate weeks ago?
Rahm had just finished the third round (of four) at the PGA event when officials delivered the bad news next to the 18th green. He held a six-stroke lead, and in golf, that’s nearly insurmountable. Had he won, the first-place prize was $1.67 million. Second place was worth $1 million.
But don’t cry for Rahm, a Spaniard who is No. 3 in the world rankings. He’s won nearly $4 million already this season. His family, which now lives in Arizona, won’t go hungry. He also has lucrative sponsorships, though presumably not from Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson and Johnson.
Rahm could have gotten a vaccine shot in Arizona in March, and the tour has provided access. He could have been fully vaccinated by the Memorial Tournament. If he had been, he wouldn’t have been in the contact-tracing protocol, and given the documented effectiveness of the vaccines, he probably wouldn’t have contracted the virus.
But he wasn’t. Instead, he exposed other golfers and caddies to the virus. Some of them also have chosen not to be vaccinated. He also potentially exposed uncounted tournament staff, officials, journalists and fans. No major sporting event occurs without dozens, even hundreds of people working just off camera. Many of those people are at greater risk of bad COVID-19 outcomes than a 26-year-old athlete.
Whether to vaccinate is a personal choice, as vaccine-reluctant Americans are quick to remind everyone. But that choice has consequences. If one chooses not to vaccinate, one must own the deleterious outcomes. Rahm lost a lot of money, but his real impact might only unfold over weeks.
He has given the PGA Tour new cause to think about its vaccine protocols, and it should put a vaccine mandate for players and caddies on the table. Fans might reconsider whether sporting events have truly become safe enough to attend. And if someone exposed to Rahm winds up sick, in the hospital or worse, it could weigh heavily on his conscience.
Ironically, the Memorial Tournament was the first PGA Tour event to feature a vaccine pop-up tent. It was set up in coordination with OhioHealth and offered any fan a free one-shot vaccine. Few people took advantage of it.
It might feel like America is moving into a post-pandemic reality, but COVID-19 is pernicious and still out there. As lockdowns and mask-mandates ease, risk remains, especially for anyone who makes the personal — and foolish — choice not to vaccinate.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
"A bit less".
People's behaviour will have massively changed. Kids won't be going to school. People won't be crowded on trains going to work.
People will be staying in their shacks. And when they leave them, they'll be covering their mouth with some kind of.... ohhh... cloth.
The evidence of behavioural change is utterly overwhelming.
Yet you choose to ignore it because:
(a) you are so wedded to your theory, that you discount all evidence against it or (b) you are actually retarded
Which one is it?
Why are you such a twat??
India is completely different to the UK, they have vast shanty towns where people live on top of each other, social distancing by staying at home in large areas of India is not possible. Is that so hard to understand?
My point is that despite these living conditions in India cases have reduced by 75% in a month, thats all.
I apologise for "being a twat".
But the reason is very clear: behavioural change.
This isn't magic, and it's the same reason why cases go through waves everywhere - including other places with shanty towns, like (oohhh...) South Africa.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
I'm not talking about hospitalisations now, I'm talking about hospitalisations later.
Yes but your extrapolations are possibly alarmist, because variables are now different. My understanding is that indicators are that hospitalisations are less serious and less frequent with this variant in the UK so far. My point was that the precautionary principle may lead to a greater number of hospitalisations than is strictly necessary to begin with. Sometimes it is best to be cautious in shouting "we're doomed"
Highest point estimate yet (and the case figure to drop in for tomorrow is already 5,984). You don't really want to look where the straight line ends up by early July.
Seattle Times ($) Editorial - A high-profile COVID-19 cautionary tale: Golfer Jon Rahm
Professional golfer Jon Rahm nearly fell to his knees on Saturday after learning that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and had to withdraw from the Memorial Tournament in Ohio. In that moment of anguish, did he give any thought to everyone else affected by his decision not to vaccinate weeks ago?
Rahm had just finished the third round (of four) at the PGA event when officials delivered the bad news next to the 18th green. He held a six-stroke lead, and in golf, that’s nearly insurmountable. Had he won, the first-place prize was $1.67 million. Second place was worth $1 million.
But don’t cry for Rahm, a Spaniard who is No. 3 in the world rankings. He’s won nearly $4 million already this season. His family, which now lives in Arizona, won’t go hungry. He also has lucrative sponsorships, though presumably not from Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson and Johnson.
Rahm could have gotten a vaccine shot in Arizona in March, and the tour has provided access. He could have been fully vaccinated by the Memorial Tournament. If he had been, he wouldn’t have been in the contact-tracing protocol, and given the documented effectiveness of the vaccines, he probably wouldn’t have contracted the virus.
But he wasn’t. Instead, he exposed other golfers and caddies to the virus. Some of them also have chosen not to be vaccinated. He also potentially exposed uncounted tournament staff, officials, journalists and fans. No major sporting event occurs without dozens, even hundreds of people working just off camera. Many of those people are at greater risk of bad COVID-19 outcomes than a 26-year-old athlete.
Whether to vaccinate is a personal choice, as vaccine-reluctant Americans are quick to remind everyone. But that choice has consequences. If one chooses not to vaccinate, one must own the deleterious outcomes. Rahm lost a lot of money, but his real impact might only unfold over weeks.
He has given the PGA Tour new cause to think about its vaccine protocols, and it should put a vaccine mandate for players and caddies on the table. Fans might reconsider whether sporting events have truly become safe enough to attend. And if someone exposed to Rahm winds up sick, in the hospital or worse, it could weigh heavily on his conscience.
Ironically, the Memorial Tournament was the first PGA Tour event to feature a vaccine pop-up tent. It was set up in coordination with OhioHealth and offered any fan a free one-shot vaccine. Few people took advantage of it.
It might feel like America is moving into a post-pandemic reality, but COVID-19 is pernicious and still out there. As lockdowns and mask-mandates ease, risk remains, especially for anyone who makes the personal — and foolish — choice not to vaccinate.
Apparently there is a significant percentage of the golfers who still aren't vaccinated.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
I'm not talking about hospitalisations now, I'm talking about hospitalisations later.
Yes but your extrapolations are possibly alarmist, because variables are now different. My understanding is that indicators are that hospitalisations are less serious and less frequent with this variant in the UK so far. My point was that the precautionary principle may lead to a greater number of hospitalisations than is strictly necessary to begin with. Sometimes it is best to be cautious in shouting "we're doomed"
I've seen some anecdotes but not "indicators" beyond that.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
Various people have said that, but no medical person, that I know of, has said "we are taking in patients who are less sick"...
Er, hasn’t Chris Hopson been saying exactly that pretty much every day this week?
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
"A bit less".
People's behaviour will have massively changed. Kids won't be going to school. People won't be crowded on trains going to work.
People will be staying in their shacks. And when they leave them, they'll be covering their mouth with some kind of.... ohhh... cloth.
The evidence of behavioural change is utterly overwhelming.
Yet you choose to ignore it because:
(a) you are so wedded to your theory, that you discount all evidence against it or (b) you are actually retarded
Which one is it?
Why are you such a twat??
India is completely different to the UK, they have vast shanty towns where people live on top of each other, social distancing by staying at home in large areas of India is not possible. Is that so hard to understand?
My point is that despite these living conditions in India cases have reduced by 75% in a month, thats all.
My guess is that those who really aren't able to change behaviours and take precautions had largely already been exposed. And probably least likely to be tested, too?
There are large numbers in India with more options (and they'll have had a better chance of dodging infection in the past, too). Their actions will be driving the drop.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
A bit of a straw, but I'll clutch it. On the lag between cases and hospitalisations, we're now looking at a period where cases had doubled from the trough (we're looking at the end of May), and hospital numbers aren't up that hugely. I think they may be in the worst areas (North West and Scotland) but in the rest of the country, it means that the runner with "Vax" on their jersey is starting with a great head start over the runner with "Delta" on their jersey.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
I'm not talking about hospitalisations now, I'm talking about hospitalisations later.
Yes but your extrapolations are possibly alarmist, because variables are now different. My understanding is that indicators are that hospitalisations are less serious and less frequent with this variant in the UK so far. My point was that the precautionary principle may lead to a greater number of hospitalisations than is strictly necessary to begin with. Sometimes it is best to be cautious in shouting "we're doomed"
I've seen some anecdotes but not "indicators" beyond that.
Coronavirus vaccine bookings on the NHS website reached a record high of more than one million yesterday.
We've got more now on the record day for vaccination bookings. When vaccine appointments opened to 25 to 29-year-olds yesterday the initial surge prompted 100,000 bookings an hour between 07:00 BST and midday, according to NHS figures.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.
You think social interaction is being avoided in India?
Yes.
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
They may be interacting a bit less but a huge number of people in India live in massively overcrowded conditions. Its not like all children in India come home to a nice 3 bed semi and go and sit in their own rooms. They remain ripe for the Indian variant to be spreading like wildfire but cases are 75% down on only a month ago.
"A bit less".
People's behaviour will have massively changed. Kids won't be going to school. People won't be crowded on trains going to work.
People will be staying in their shacks. And when they leave them, they'll be covering their mouth with some kind of.... ohhh... cloth.
The evidence of behavioural change is utterly overwhelming.
Yet you choose to ignore it because:
(a) you are so wedded to your theory, that you discount all evidence against it or (b) you are actually retarded
Which one is it?
Why are you such a twat??
India is completely different to the UK, they have vast shanty towns where people live on top of each other, social distancing by staying at home in large areas of India is not possible. Is that so hard to understand?
My point is that despite these living conditions in India cases have reduced by 75% in a month, thats all.
My guess is that those who really aren't able to change behaviours and take precautions had largely already been exposed. And probably least likely to be tested, too?
There are large numbers in India with more options (and they'll have had a better chance of dodging infection in the past, too). Their actions will be driving the drop.
Even people living in shacks in shanty towns can change their behaviour. People won't leave their shack unless they have to, and when they do they'll wear a face covering.
That results in a massive drop in the ability of the virus to spread.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
Yes, but is hospitalisation being inflated due to precautionary principle?
Various people have said that, but no medical person, that I know of, has said "we are taking in patients who are less sick"...
Er, hasn’t Chris Hopson been saying exactly that pretty much every day this week?
yes, and as I understand it those being placed in ICUs and HDUs as a proportion of admissions has reduced considerably, so that would indicate that these patients are less sick.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
We now have the highest number of daily cases since February and hospitalisations are rising. Things are not fine...
Hospitalisations have risen by a terrifying 73 on the previous week. In the Luton and Bedford hotspot we have a total of 12 people in hospital suffering from Covid.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
No it's not.
Last September, I was asking on this board: why won't the UK follow the paths of European countries that have seen cases soars?
The question should now be: why won't the UK follow the same path as other countries who have very high levels of vaccinations?
All the evidence is that, particularly for the double jabbed, there is nothing to fear from Delta. And that as we keep putting jabs in arms, the number of places where Covid can hide will keep falling.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
A bit of a straw, but I'll clutch it. On the lag between cases and hospitalisations, we're now looking at a period where cases had doubled from the trough (we're looking at the end of May), and hospital numbers aren't up that hugely. I think they may be in the worst areas (North West and Scotland) but in the rest of the country, it means that the runner with "Vax" on their jersey is starting with a great head start over the runner with "Delta" on their jersey.
Fingers firmly crossed.
I don’t think that’s clutching at straws Andy.
I think that’s what the data say.
It’s looking like Hopson is right: the link between positive tests and hospitalisations/morbidity has been broken by the vaccine. Because the susceptible now are for the most part young and fit.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
In terms of hospitalisations, how has that translated?
The argument is no one can catch Covid as we have herd immunity.
Sorry to be a pedant, but even if we have herd immunity (which we don't in spite of Philip Thompson's belief), you can still catch Covid. It will just spread much more slowly. Overall, even if the herd has "herd immunity", some of the cattle will still get sick.
Given the existence of 5 million unused AZN jabs in the UK (and presumably more being delivered every day), it's not clear to me why the government doesn't offer walk-in AZN jabs to anyone who wants them.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
Remember when Leah Betts died from E
She didn't die from E.
You may have said that already as I haven't been on here, but she didn't die from E. She died because she drank 7 litres of water inside 90 minutes. She died from water intoxication and hyponotraemia.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
Probably testing numbers also fallen off a cliff.
The positivity rate in India is falling off a cliff too. Its now back below many European nations, interestingly South Africa is where its now starting to surge.
Given the existence of 5 million unused AZN jabs in the UK (and presumably more being delivered every day), it's not clear to me why the government doesn't offer walk-in AZN jabs to anyone who wants them.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
Remember when Leah Betts died from E
She didn't die from E.
You may have said that already as I haven't been on here, but she didn't die from E. She died because she drank 7 litres of water inside 90 minutes. She died from water intoxication and hyponotraemia.
Yes you’re right, but that’s not what the headlines at the time said.
Her parents weren’t on TV saying “don’t drink water”.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Comments
The decision on 12 - 17 year olds is certainly very very easy now.
We don't have herd immunity yet. It will require a very high uptake on the vaccine in the *whole population* and even then would require vaccines to be very very good at stopping the spread of disease.
* "This House will under no circumstances fight for its King and country,"
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
Kaepernick and his 49ers teammate Eric Reid said they choose to kneel during the anthem to call attention to the issues of racial inequality and police brutality. "After hours of careful consideration, and even a visit from Nate Boyer, a retired Green Beret and former NFL player, we came to the conclusion that we should kneel, rather than sit, ... during the anthem, as a peaceful protest," said Reid. "We chose to kneel because it's a respectful gesture. I remember thinking our posture was like a flag flown at half-mast to mark a tragedy."
People are interacting less in India.
This is a *relative* thing. And people are interacting less than they were.
Have you not seen the images of Mumbai's public transport? These are trains are normally so busy that people cling to the roofs. Now, you can get a seat. That's an utterly massive change in the level of social interaction.
At no point did I get the sense that people suddenly got scared and changed their behaviour.
Now that we can't blame Europe any more, though I'm sure The Express will try, it will land elsewhere.
https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1401662521208098817?s=20
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=ltla&areaName=South Ayrshire
Cases currently hitting October 2020 and heading towards Jan 2020
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=South Ayrshire
Blimey.
That approach would be bad for some people, but maintainng restricitions will be bad for some people too (probably less bad but for more people).
"riding the rollercoaster" = "Things are looking dicey and a bit up and down"
"Things are looking dicey" = "Brown trouser time"
"Brown trouser time" = "heading for trouble"
hope that helps.
At SOME point between claiming “there are absolutely no checks” and going on to claim “these checks are too onerous”, there MUST BE a moment when you realise “oh gosh, the thing we signed includes checks, seems we lied to everyone, OOPS”. ~AA https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1402638431575064580
Shopping via home deliveries soared. Online banking soared. Public transport was heading down...
Because that's the English way.
GOVERNOR
Terry McAuliffe (he won every county & independent city in VA)
303,067 62.3%
Jennifer Carroll Foy
96,205 19.8
Jennifer McClellan
56,398 11.6
Justin Fairfax
17,227 3.5
Lee Carter
13,487 2.8
Total reported
486,384
LIEUTENANT GOV
Hala Ayala
176,291 39.1%
Sam Rasoul
114,018 25.3
Mark Levine
52,769 11.7
Andria McClellan
50,024 11.1
Sean Perryman
38,190 8.5
Xavier Warren
19,665 4.4
Total reported
450,957
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Mark Herring (incumbent)
268,038 56.5%
Jay Jones
206,107 43.5
Total reported
474,145
NYT ($) Terry McAuliffe Wins Democratic Nomination for Governor in Virginia
Mr. McAuliffe, who previously served as governor, overcame four rivals, benefiting from the support of the party establishment. His victory set up a general election race against a wealthy Republican, Glenn Youngkin.
. . . Positioning himself as a political outsider and having already spent $12 million of his own fortune, Mr. Youngkin is poised to make Virginia the most competitive election in the country this fall. He’s linking Mr. McAuliffe and Mr. Northam to argue that Virginia Democrats have taken a moderate state sharply to the left since gaining total control of the State Capitol.
Recognizing the threat Mr. Youngkin poses, Mr. McAuliffe devoted a significant part of his victory speech to attacking his opponent, linking the financier to former President Donald J. Trump and outlining his conservative views on cultural issues. . . .
I'm thinking more about the second wave. It was obvious where things were going, and people kept on behaving as they were until the government cancelled Christmas and told everyone to suck it up until the vaccines had done their work.
The change was massively obvious.
People's behaviour will have massively changed. Kids won't be going to school. People won't be crowded on trains going to work.
People will be staying in their shacks. And when they leave them, they'll be covering their mouth with some kind of.... ohhh... cloth.
The evidence of behavioural change is utterly overwhelming.
Yet you choose to ignore it because:
(a) you are so wedded to your theory, that you discount all evidence against it
or
(b) you are actually retarded
Which one is it?
The rise started around the 20th of May and the most recent hospitalisation news would be around the 1st of June. Any rise would be minimal by now.
We'll see the current values reflected in hospitalisations as of the 18th or so, which we should know by the 23rd or so.
As in, we unlock, cases would rise. The vaccinations *should* keep deaths and hospitalisations down, but that is what the government and their advisers worry about.
GOVERNOR
Jack Ciattarelli
157,346 49.4%
Philip Rizzo
82,662 25.9
Hirsh Singh
68,481 21.5
Brian Levine
10,254 3.2
Total reported
318,743
NYT ($) Ciattarelli Defeats Trump Loyalists in G.O.P. Primary to Take on Murphy
Jack Ciattarelli won New Jersey’s Republican primary and will face Philip D. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent, in November.
Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former lawmaker, beat back challenges from candidates loyal to former President Donald J. Trump to win Tuesday’s Republican primary in New Jersey, setting the stage for one of only two governor’s races in the nation in November.
Mr. Ciattarelli, a moderate former assemblyman making his second bid for governor, will now face Gov. Philip D. Murphy, who ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination and is hoping to ride high approval ratings for his handling of the pandemic to a second term.
Democrats control all branches of government in New Jersey and outnumber Republicans by nearly 1.1 million voters.
Still, Mr. Murphy’s run is dogged by nearly a half-century of history: The last Democrat to be re-elected governor in New Jersey was Brendan T. Byrne, in 1977.
Mr. Murphy’s favorable ratings have slipped by about seven percentage points since the start of the second wave of the pandemic in October 2020, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, but are still at a robust 47 percent. . . .
Mr. Murphy’s handling of the pandemic earned high marks from 31 percent of residents, according to the poll. But only 7 percent said he deserved an “A” grade on tax policies, a perennial, bread-and-butter voter issue in New Jersey, where residents pay some of the highest taxes in the country.
Mr. Ciattarelli’s showing among his Republican base is considered likely to dictate the tenor and policy focus of the campaign. The election will come nearly a year into the first term of President Biden, a Democrat, making it an early bellwether of the electorate’s mood as the midterm congressional elections approach. Virginia is the only other state with a race for governor. . . .
Turnout was low, with fewer than 1 in 5 registered Republicans voting.
Political analysts said the results could pressure Mr. Ciattarelli to strike national themes popular with Trump supporters instead of the good government and fiscal responsibility motifs that are more likely to resonate with mainstream Republicans and the state’s 2.4 million independent voters.
Mr. Ciattarelli in 2015 called Mr. Trump a “charlatan.” In last month’s debate, when asked if he supported the former president, he said, “I supported Donald Trump’s policies.”
“If he’s got to look over his shoulder every time something happens to make sure the Trump wing of the party is still with him, that’s going to be a serious constraint for him,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. . . .
Toon was a ghost town in the autumn.
Folk got smart and changed their behaviour.
India is completely different to the UK, they have vast shanty towns where people live on top of each other, social distancing by staying at home in large areas of India is not possible. Is that so hard to understand?
My point is that despite these living conditions in India cases have reduced by 75% in a month, thats all.
We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help.
Even if it doesn't matter.
I see no evidence that hospital bed usage is rising at more than a 20% week-over-week level. And this should be the key metric - because if younger people spend less time in hospital than older ones, then the system can survive a higher number of per day hospitalisations than at previous peaks.
Worth noting that a 20% week-over-week rise is fine, because vaccinations will be closing down the vulnerable population, and therefore we won't end up with the NHS being swamped.
Naaaah.
Professional golfer Jon Rahm nearly fell to his knees on Saturday after learning that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and had to withdraw from the Memorial Tournament in Ohio. In that moment of anguish, did he give any thought to everyone else affected by his decision not to vaccinate weeks ago?
Rahm had just finished the third round (of four) at the PGA event when officials delivered the bad news next to the 18th green. He held a six-stroke lead, and in golf, that’s nearly insurmountable. Had he won, the first-place prize was $1.67 million. Second place was worth $1 million.
But don’t cry for Rahm, a Spaniard who is No. 3 in the world rankings. He’s won nearly $4 million already this season. His family, which now lives in Arizona, won’t go hungry. He also has lucrative sponsorships, though presumably not from Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson and Johnson.
Rahm could have gotten a vaccine shot in Arizona in March, and the tour has provided access. He could have been fully vaccinated by the Memorial Tournament. If he had been, he wouldn’t have been in the contact-tracing protocol, and given the documented effectiveness of the vaccines, he probably wouldn’t have contracted the virus.
But he wasn’t. Instead, he exposed other golfers and caddies to the virus. Some of them also have chosen not to be vaccinated. He also potentially exposed uncounted tournament staff, officials, journalists and fans. No major sporting event occurs without dozens, even hundreds of people working just off camera. Many of those people are at greater risk of bad COVID-19 outcomes than a 26-year-old athlete.
Whether to vaccinate is a personal choice, as vaccine-reluctant Americans are quick to remind everyone. But that choice has consequences. If one chooses not to vaccinate, one must own the deleterious outcomes. Rahm lost a lot of money, but his real impact might only unfold over weeks.
He has given the PGA Tour new cause to think about its vaccine protocols, and it should put a vaccine mandate for players and caddies on the table. Fans might reconsider whether sporting events have truly become safe enough to attend. And if someone exposed to Rahm winds up sick, in the hospital or worse, it could weigh heavily on his conscience.
Ironically, the Memorial Tournament was the first PGA Tour event to feature a vaccine pop-up tent. It was set up in coordination with OhioHealth and offered any fan a free one-shot vaccine. Few people took advantage of it.
It might feel like America is moving into a post-pandemic reality, but COVID-19 is pernicious and still out there. As lockdowns and mask-mandates ease, risk remains, especially for anyone who makes the personal — and foolish — choice not to vaccinate.
But the reason is very clear: behavioural change.
This isn't magic, and it's the same reason why cases go through waves everywhere - including other places with shanty towns, like (oohhh...) South Africa.
Highest point estimate yet (and the case figure to drop in for tomorrow is already 5,984). You don't really want to look where the straight line ends up by early July.
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1402643549963919360
Could it be, that Rishi Sunak is "seeking" an opt out for Finanzkapital more as PR than as policy? PR with the banksters & their henchpeople?
There are large numbers in India with more options (and they'll have had a better chance of dodging infection in the past, too). Their actions will be driving the drop.
On the lag between cases and hospitalisations, we're now looking at a period where cases had doubled from the trough (we're looking at the end of May), and hospital numbers aren't up that hugely.
I think they may be in the worst areas (North West and Scotland) but in the rest of the country, it means that the runner with "Vax" on their jersey is starting with a great head start over the runner with "Delta" on their jersey.
Fingers firmly crossed.
We've got more now on the record day for vaccination bookings. When vaccine appointments opened to 25 to 29-year-olds yesterday the initial surge prompted 100,000 bookings an hour between 07:00 BST and midday, according to NHS figures.
----
Imagine if we deployed the 5 million AZN doses.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over"
"Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover"
we are just short a
"Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
That results in a massive drop in the ability of the virus to spread.
Last September, I was asking on this board: why won't the UK follow the paths of European countries that have seen cases soars?
The question should now be: why won't the UK follow the same path as other countries who have very high levels of vaccinations?
All the evidence is that, particularly for the double jabbed, there is nothing to fear from Delta. And that as we keep putting jabs in arms, the number of places where Covid can hide will keep falling.
I think that’s what the data say.
It’s looking like Hopson is right: the link between positive tests and hospitalisations/morbidity has been broken by the vaccine. Because the susceptible now are for the most part young and fit.
If that’s the case, it’s all over.
IN SEPTEMBER VERY FEW PEOPLE WERE VACCINATED
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1402597182688092161?s=20
I had assumed it was my usual hayfever.
You may have said that already as I haven't been on here, but she didn't die from E. She died because she drank 7 litres of water inside 90 minutes. She died from water intoxication and hyponotraemia.
BTW he would be more use as an articulate spokesman for a certain sceptical position rather than running pseudo politics with idiots.
Absolute traitors for not cheering for your own team.
7,540
6
Her parents weren’t on TV saying “don’t drink water”.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-09/portugal-to-halt-plan-to-ease-confinement-measures-in-lisbon