All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
As an aside, in the US while cases and hospitalisations are falling nationwide, in unvaccinated parts of the country (*cough* some of the South *cough*), you are beginning to see increases in both.
Bending the knee should be replaced with the players standing with their arms locked around each other. We stand together we fall together. And once the covid nanny state allows it, repeated across the entire stadium, with the whole stand locked arm in arm together. What an image that would be.
This would take away the unwelcome political and submission element of the knee gesture, be something that all non racists would get behind while quickly out the racists, and pump up the adrenaline of the fans and players before kick off, especially if accompanied by a roar at the end.
I am not a particularly clever or creative person, it staggers me they haven’t come up with this themselves.
It doesn't matter what gesture is chosen, the thick racists will object to it.
The problem is the fact that it's a gesture, which is a substitute for doing anything worthwhile. So yes, any other gesture would be just as bad.
There's lots to not like about all this. One thing is that it intends that everyone either approves or is wrong. Like so many things it does not want to allow for a middle position - a position which doesn't adopt either extreme on a issue but seeks to find a middle way. And it doesn't want you to be allowed to be a neutral - just uninvolved because your interest is elsewhere.
A bit like the poppy fascists, for whom not wearing a poppy for days on end is a sign of being pacifist/treacherous/Corbynista etc.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
As an aside, in the US while cases and hospitalisations are falling nationwide, in unvaccinated parts of the country (*cough* some of the South *cough*), you are beginning to see increases in both.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
Just want to see the country in as good a position as possible with respect to immunity. Do we have mix and match trials ongoing at the moment ? Because if we don't, we should.
We do.
I posted a Nature article, and the preliminary results from the trial in Spain is that AZN first plus Pfizer second stimulates a stronger immune response than either using AZN or Pfizer twice.
Canada, France, Spain, Germany and a bunch of other countries have now approved AZN followed by Pfizer, and we should probably do the same.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
Just want to see the country in as good a position as possible with respect to immunity. Do we have mix and match trials ongoing at the moment ? Because if we don't, we should.
We do.
I posted a Nature article, and the preliminary results from the trial in Spain is that AZN first plus Pfizer second stimulates a stronger immune response than either using AZN or Pfizer twice.
Canada, France, Spain, Germany and a bunch of other countries have now approved AZN followed by Pfizer, and we should probably do the same.
But its too late for us to do that, since rollout is already done. Over 40s have already had their doses so too late to do a mix and match for them.
The JCVI shows that the remaining age groups getting AZN is more risky than the miniscule risk from Covid. So doing a mix and match for them would be riskied than letting them take their chances until they can get Pfizer.
That's a little misleading because:
(a) It ignores the benefit to everyone from reducing the number of potential Covid hosts. (b) It relies on a very low community prevalence of Covid. If there's more Covid around (because of - say- the Delta variant), then the equation changes. (c), the vaccine risk is for a particular point in time (i.e. getting the vaccine), while the Covid risk is potentially over decades
How is decades relevant when the alternative is not "don't get vaccinated" its "get Pfizer or Moderna" which will be available within a few weeks, not decades.
I'm suggesting (a) offering AZN to walk-ups and people who want to get something now, and (b) making second doses PFE/Moderna, which now appears to offer better protection than using the same vaccine twice.
In this way, we can help collapse the number of potential hosts more quickly and get the UK's first doses number back up to record levels.
Oh dear Harry is threatening legal action over defamatory comments.. Toys out of pram....
Or alternatively, the press should just stop making shit up ...
Harry is a war with ( his)Royal Family. The press is caught in the crossfire. I don't think they are lying. They are reporting a 'Palace source"
I do worry about you anti- woke warriors. How do you square the circle in this instance of Sussex hatred with BBC hatred? One or other must be telling the truth.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
We don't, or cases wouldn't be going up !
Cases are going up within limited areas, especially where vaccine uptake is lower than average, from a miniscule base with great testing, cases can go up from a miniscule base even when there's herd immunity. Herd immunity has never meant 100% immunity or protection - especially in areas where vaccine takeup is below average.
80% is sufficient for herd immunity for an R0 of 5.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
We don't, or cases wouldn't be going up !
Cases are going up within limited areas, especially where vaccine uptake is lower than average, from a miniscule base with great testing, cases can go up from a miniscule base even when there's herd immunity. Herd immunity has never meant 100% immunity or protection - especially in areas where vaccine takeup is below average.
80% is sufficient for herd immunity for an R0 of 5.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham wants to see a surge in vaccinations in the region to combat the Delta variant.
It would allow younger age groups to be vaccinated more quickly.
But the problem is that supplies of the vaccines needed to do that – Pfizer and Moderna – are limited, according to government sources.
There is currently thought to be a stockpile of more than five million vaccine doses, but they are almost entirely AstraZeneca, which is not being used for the under 40s.
Currently about four million extra doses are being supplied by manufacturers. But most of this comes from the UK’s AstraZeneca plants. On average around 1.5 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna are being imported in each week.
---
FFS...5 million doses sitting doing nothing...get them in arms.
Surely we could do a scheme where your young, they tell you, you can come today, its going to be AZN, or if you don't wait for Pfizer / Moderna. Its up to you.
Offer the AZ to the young, on the basis that by accepting them, they are also accepting there is a very, very slight risk of bad shit happening.
And watch the website crash with those who want to take that very, very slight risk....
Yeap...especially if it is made clear that this is our way to give everybody the ability to get out on the razz to clubs, to festivals, etc.
Except the JCVI data shows that to the young there is more risk from the AZN vaccine than there is from Covid.
So how about just opening up festivals etc, let them happen, and let the young get vaccinated once there's sufficient Pfizer etc available?
Why use a cure that is worse than the disease now? Which incidentally includes lockdowns too.
"Except the JCVI data shows that to the young there is more risk from the AZN vaccine than there is from Covid" - as long as there's very little covid around (as per April). As soon as the prevalence increases and their chance of actually catching covid increases past "very low right now", that equation changes. Delta therefore changes it all on its own, as does relaxation of restrictions.
Though prevalence is still really low. People are hyperventilating about a few thousand cases per day when 80% of the nation have antibodies and there's half a million vaccinations happening per day.
The virus is running out of people to infect.
Though its worth concentrating what vaccine supplies we do have in Manchester, Lancashire and other hotspots. An 18 year old in Manchester or Bolton is going to be at higher risk than a 25 year old in the Cotswolds.
If prevalence has doubled or quadrupled, then the risk to the young from it has doubled or quadrupled. If we want to no longer care about prevalence and just let people get on with it regardless of exposure to the virus, then we have to assume everyone will be exposed to the virus. And the risk will be literally orders of magnitude greater.
The risk that the JCVI measured was the risk from covid multiplied by a very small number (risk of catching it). If you set the risk of catching it to close to 1 (which is the scenario we wish to be in, where we don't care if people catch it because they won't get seriously ill), then you multiply that risk by the reciprocal of that very small number. Which is, of course, a very large number.
Without taking that into account and continuing to quote the value from multiplying the risk-if-you-catch-covid with the very low number of risk-of-catching-covid, the wrong risk number comes out.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Oh dear Harry is threatening legal action over defamatory comments.. Toys out of pram....
Or alternatively, the press should just stop making shit up ...
Harry is a war with ( his)Royal Family. The press is caught in the crossfire. I don't think they are lying. They are reporting a 'Palace source"
I do worry about you anti- woke warriors. How do you square the circle in this instance of Sussex hatred with BBC hatred? One or other must be telling the truth.
or perhaps it was a misunderstanding. Either way I don't care.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
So many EU positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just carry on accepting laws from old pals. Just tell the racist gammons you've taken back control because they're too stupid to know the difference'.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Fine. I'm willing to bet that the number of cases goes up from here If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
We don't, or cases wouldn't be going up !
Cases are going up within limited areas, especially where vaccine uptake is lower than average, from a miniscule base with great testing, cases can go up from a miniscule base even when there's herd immunity. Herd immunity has never meant 100% immunity or protection - especially in areas where vaccine takeup is below average.
80% is sufficient for herd immunity for an R0 of 5.
Herd immunity means you've got sufficient neutralising protection from either previous infection, vaccination or both such that the exponent R is less than 1. It's a well defined mathematical SEIR model concept. Currently R is clearly above 1. I think we should unlock on June 21st but we do not have herd immunity.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
So many EU positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just carry on accepting laws from old pals. Just tell the racist gammons you've taken back control because they're too stupid to know the difference'.
Wasn’t that effectively *your* position from 2016 until this year?
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
So many EU positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just carry on accepting laws from old pals. Just tell the racist gammons you've taken back control because they're too stupid to know the difference'.
I am sure they wouldn't say it but the second sentence would be true.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
So many EU positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just carry on accepting laws from old pals. Just tell the racist gammons you've taken back control because they're too stupid to know the difference'.
Wasn’t that effectively *your* position from 2016 until this year?
Yes I have noticed a bit of a damascene conversion to Brexit apologist. Maybe change name to Williamgammon?
"Cyber Security Exporting Chinese surveillance: the security risks of ‘smart cities’ Critics say the technology can be a tool for ‘digital authoritarianism’ and leaves countries vulnerable to cyber attack"
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Or perhaps Americans have too much self confidence to give two shits about something so trivial. I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Fine. I'm willing to bet that the number of cases goes up from here If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
No because as I said it can increase from a minimal base, especially in a community that doesn't have herd immunity (even if a nation as a whole has hit the threshold, if a community has not then that community will be at risk).
But there are not the conditions there were at the start of the year for an ever-exponential rise in cases. The virus is going to run out of people it can infect because of the immunity.
Bending the knee should be replaced with the players standing with their arms locked around each other. We stand together we fall together. And once the covid nanny state allows it, repeated across the entire stadium, with the whole stand locked arm in arm together. What an image that would be.
This would take away the unwelcome political and submission element of the knee gesture, be something that all non racists would get behind while quickly out the racists, and pump up the adrenaline of the fans and players before kick off, especially if accompanied by a roar at the end.
I am not a particularly clever or creative person, it staggers me they haven’t come up with this themselves.
It doesn't matter what gesture is chosen, the thick racists will object to it.
The problem is the fact that it's a gesture, which is a substitute for doing anything worthwhile. So yes, any other gesture would be just as bad.
There's lots to not like about all this. One thing is that it intends that everyone either approves or is wrong. Like so many things it does not want to allow for a middle position - a position which doesn't adopt either extreme on a issue but seeks to find a middle way. And it doesn't want you to be allowed to be a neutral - just uninvolved because your interest is elsewhere.
A bit like the poppy fascists, for whom not wearing a poppy for days on end is a sign of being pacifist/treacherous/Corbynista etc.
Seriously tho' it would be correct that I loathe the BBC and it is time to get rid of the telly tax. With Harry... I strongly disapprove of his despicable behaviour towards his own family, and in public to boot.. Rule no 1.. you don't shit on your own doorstep.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
But he wants it to be so. He thinks that if he says it enough times it will be. This is why he has blind loyalty to Boris Johnson.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
Today's outcome largely as expected but still disappointing. Both sides need to do more, UK on trying to rebuild trust by implementing things such as data sharing & EU by recognising challenges on ground in NI are real not just hypothetical or made up to suit UK narrative (1/2)....
I'd caution those pinning hope on Biden resolving this. If I were still in No 10 & had serious concerns about integrity of UK union & was willing to risk undermining trade with largest trading partner, what US had to say wouldn't be defining factor (2/2)
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Fine. I'm willing to bet that the number of cases goes up from here If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
No because as I said it can increase from a minimal base, especially in a community that doesn't have herd immunity (even if a nation as a whole has hit the threshold, if a community has not then that community will be at risk).
But there are not the conditions there were at the start of the year for an ever-exponential rise in cases. The virus is going to run out of people it can infect because of the immunity.
Any and all viruses do this, the vaccination program + new infections create the wall that the virus will eventually hit to push R back below 1. But it is not there yet.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
So many EU positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just carry on accepting laws from old pals. Just tell the racist gammons you've taken back control because they're too stupid to know the difference'.
Wasn’t that effectively *your* position from 2016 until this year?
No. I was against Brexit. I was never in favour of a soft Brexit or Brexit in name only.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Or perhaps Americans have too much self confidence to give two shits about something so trivial. I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
Fox News etc would go beserk, it would be American Revolution 2 and so on.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
You said "We have herd immunity.". You were/are talking nonsense. Had you said "do we have herd immunity?", or are we close to herd immunity in some areas? Some of those that understand stuff might have responded more kindly.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Fine. I'm willing to bet that the number of cases goes up from here If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
Gupta says one of the problems with SARS covid is we don't know what the herd immunity threshold is.
Indeed, iirc she argues it might change with seasonality.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Fine. I'm willing to bet that the number of cases goes up from here If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
No because as I said it can increase from a minimal base, especially in a community that doesn't have herd immunity (even if a nation as a whole has hit the threshold, if a community has not then that community will be at risk).
But there are not the conditions there were at the start of the year for an ever-exponential rise in cases. The virus is going to run out of people it can infect because of the immunity.
In most of the country, cases are rising. Here in Oxfordshire, they're up 180.5% on the week. In every region of England, they are climbing. That is not possible if we have widespread herd immunity. It has a very specific meaning, and the entire point of continuing to vaccinate is to MAKE the virus run out of people it can infect. At the moment, half of young people have no antibodies and can therefore be infected. These are literally the people we're talking about for this particular risk calculation, and these are where the case rises are currently concentrated.
That risk calculation has changed by more than a factor of two nationwide for them since it was made and is changing negatively for them by the day. The statement that the vaccine is more dangerous for them than the virus is specifically and unequivocally false. It was only an edge case even then; change the odds by a factor of two and it's definitely no longer the case.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
So many EU positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just carry on accepting laws from old pals. Just tell the racist gammons you've taken back control because they're too stupid to know the difference'.
Wasn’t that effectively *your* position from 2016 until this year?
No. I was against Brexit. I was never in favour of a soft Brexit or Brexit in name only.
...and yet you seem to be making anti-EU statements on a regular basis that appear similar to a Brexit apologist/enthusiast? I was against Brexit, but I think despite the pointlessness and damage we will recover. I have always thought the EU does stupid stuff even before 2016, but that doesn't make me start to make up things that they haven't said. Why?
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
People talk about cases and hospitalisations surging across the Northwest but that's completely misleading. Its not the Northwest, its a few hotspots in places where the vaccine has been refused. Exceptions, not the rule.
I'm from Warrington in the Northwest, just a few miles from Bolton and Blackburn and Darwen, and literally neighbouring Greater Manchester. For much of the pandemic Sky's in-hospital reporting came from Warrington Hospital.
As of the latest data on the Coronavirus.data.gov.uk site across the entirety of Warrington and Halton there are a grand total in hospital of: Two people. Not over 200 as there were throughout January, just 2. None on ventilation.
Across Preston, South Ribble and Chorley there's a grand total of: Four people.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Fine. I'm willing to bet that the number of cases goes up from here If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
No because as I said it can increase from a minimal base, especially in a community that doesn't have herd immunity (even if a nation as a whole has hit the threshold, if a community has not then that community will be at risk).
But there are not the conditions there were at the start of the year for an ever-exponential rise in cases. The virus is going to run out of people it can infect because of the immunity.
In most of the country, cases are rising. Here in Oxfordshire, they're up 180.5% on the week. In every region of England, they are climbing. That is not possible if we have widespread herd immunity. It has a very specific meaning, and the entire point of continuing to vaccinate is to MAKE the virus run out of people it can infect. At the moment, half of young people have no antibodies and can therefore be infected. These are literally the people we're talking about for this particular risk calculation, and these are where the case rises are currently concentrated.
That risk calculation has changed by more than a factor of two nationwide for them since it was made and is changing negatively for them by the day. The statement that the vaccine is more dangerous for them than the virus is specifically and unequivocally false. It was only an edge case even then; change the odds by a factor of two and it's definitely no longer the case.
On the latter point. I got my second AZ yesterday. Accompanied by a bewildering list of potential symptoms indicating the possibility of clotting. And a 4 page A4 leaflet telling me what to watch out for, and what to do. My partner didn't even have it mentioned a few weeks ago. Given all that, it is no surprise mortality from clotting is on the decrease.
Today's outcome largely as expected but still disappointing. Both sides need to do more, UK on trying to rebuild trust by implementing things such as data sharing & EU by recognising challenges on ground in NI are real not just hypothetical or made up to suit UK narrative (1/2)....
I'd caution those pinning hope on Biden resolving this. If I were still in No 10 & had serious concerns about integrity of UK union & was willing to risk undermining trade with largest trading partner, what US had to say wouldn't be defining factor (2/2)
The UK should follow the Italian and French examples and have different rules for the double jabbed. (So long as the jabs in question are efficacious, and not Sinopharm.)
The fact that I am double jabbed and wish to see my family is a complete coincidence.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
Or perhaps Americans have too much self confidence to give two shits about something so trivial. I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
Fox News etc would go beserk, it would be American Revolution 2 and so on.
Maybe. I think this story is do dumb that even Fox would be embarrassed to cover it.
One thing, I don't think a substantially new UK variant will be cooked up. There's insufficient naive vulnerable hosts for the virus left.
All the nasty new variants have been in times and places of colossal prevalence - UK Christmas (Kent), India, Brazil , South Africa.
No the Kent variant was first sequenced in September, when cases were actually slightly lower than now.
New variants are unlikely to be cooked up in vaccinated hosts.
I hope you're right, but not everybody is vaccinated and vaccines aren't 100% effective. Anyway, it's not true that the Kent variant was incubated "in times and places of colossal prevalence". India and Brazil seem to have been.
The UK should follow the Italian and French examples and have different rules for the double jabbed. (So long as the jabs in question are efficacious, and not Sinopharm.)
The fact that I am double jabbed and wish to see my family is a complete coincidence.
Join the club!
I think the rules will change, and quite dramatically around international travel, once everyone’s been offered the vaccine in the UK.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
I recall from my college days a post-graduate worthy getting up at the SU AGM to lambast the poor attendance at various student committees, the worst he'd see seen during his eight years as a student. 'Get a job!' was the memorable heckle.
People talk about cases and hospitalisations surging across the Northwest but that's completely misleading. Its not the Northwest, its a few hotspots in places where the vaccine has been refused. Exceptions, not the rule.
I'm from Warrington in the Northwest, just a few miles from Bolton and Blackburn and Darwen, and literally neighbouring Greater Manchester. For much of the pandemic Sky's in-hospital reporting came from Warrington Hospital.
As of the latest data on the Coronavirus.data.gov.uk site across the entirety of Warrington and Halton there are a grand total in hospital of: Two people. Not over 200 as there were throughout January, just 2. None on ventilation.
Across Preston, South Ribble and Chorley there's a grand total of: Four people.
In Warrington, the 7-day total of cases-by-specimen-date up until the 6th of June was 166. This was from a steady rise since the 24th of May. It has increased by more than a factor of 10 in that time. That's a doubling time of just over 4 days.
Warrington is not at herd immunity.
It has avoided hospitalisations so far due to two reasons:
1 - There is a lag; hospital data for Warrington is reported upto the 1st of June, which would go across to infections as of the 22nd of May (before the cases rise) 2 - The infections should be concentrated on the young. Fewer of them will roll up in hospital (albeit there will be some, some of whom will end up with long-term health issues)
Your statement that there is herd immunity there is semantically equivalent to saying that an exponential rise there is impossible. While it is visibly going on
Today's outcome largely as expected but still disappointing. Both sides need to do more, UK on trying to rebuild trust by implementing things such as data sharing & EU by recognising challenges on ground in NI are real not just hypothetical or made up to suit UK narrative (1/2)....
I'd caution those pinning hope on Biden resolving this. If I were still in No 10 & had serious concerns about integrity of UK union & was willing to risk undermining trade with largest trading partner, what US had to say wouldn't be defining factor (2/2)
The solution is the trusted trader scheme, that was envisioned as part of the Protocol.
With a dollop of NI fudge, for any minor issues remaining.
The Irish need to educate the EU about NI fudge, because there’s no workable long term solution without it. It’s been a feature of NI for decades.
...and indeed the much older "Irish Question". The interesting thing is that the Irish Question has been a problem for Britain. Now it is a problem for the EU also.
One of my fav quotes again from 1066 and All That: " Mr Gladstone spent the latter part of his career trying to guess the answer to the Irish Question, but just as he was getting warm the Irish secretly changed the question."
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
Why let facts get in the way of a good story?
A point of trivia. Sidwell is a Friends' School, and has been the school of several US Presidents' children, including:
Theodore Roosevelt Richard Nixon Bill Clinton Barack Obama
Given the existence of 5 million unused AZN jabs in the UK (and presumably more being delivered every day), it's not clear to me why the government doesn't offer walk-in AZN jabs to anyone who wants them.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
The UK should follow the Italian and French examples and have different rules for the double jabbed. (So long as the jabs in question are efficacious, and not Sinopharm.)
The fact that I am double jabbed and wish to see my family is a complete coincidence.
Join the club!
I think the rules will change, and quite dramatically around international travel, once everyone’s been offered the vaccine in the UK.
Incidentally, on the livestream for Lancashire's first T20 game the players all lined up to 'stand up for inclusion' and got a round of applause.
Now it may be that cricket attracts a better clientele, or it may be Philip is wrong on this one and an alternative gesture would solve the impasse.
I still think 'stand up for inclusion' is a bit bollocks, to be honest. Is cricket really racist? Is it a) cricket's, or b) society's biggest problem right now? Will it solve anything? It is at best an empty gesture. But I'll take an empty gesture over a blanket assumption of white guilt and all the other things associated with taking a knee. I can at least agree with its aims.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
People talk about cases and hospitalisations surging across the Northwest but that's completely misleading. Its not the Northwest, its a few hotspots in places where the vaccine has been refused. Exceptions, not the rule.
I'm from Warrington in the Northwest, just a few miles from Bolton and Blackburn and Darwen, and literally neighbouring Greater Manchester. For much of the pandemic Sky's in-hospital reporting came from Warrington Hospital.
As of the latest data on the Coronavirus.data.gov.uk site across the entirety of Warrington and Halton there are a grand total in hospital of: Two people. Not over 200 as there were throughout January, just 2. None on ventilation.
Across Preston, South Ribble and Chorley there's a grand total of: Four people.
In Warrington, the 7-day total of cases-by-specimen-date up until the 6th of June was 166. This was from a steady rise since the 24th of May. It has increased by more than a factor of 10 in that time. That's a doubling time of just over 4 days.
Warrington is not at herd immunity.
It has avoided hospitalisations so far due to two reasons:
1 - There is a lag; hospital data for Warrington is reported upto the 1st of June, which would go across to infections as of the 22nd of May (before the cases rise) 2 - The infections should be concentrated on the young. Fewer of them will roll up in hospital (albeit there will be some, some of whom will end up with long-term health issues)
Your statement that there is herd immunity there is semantically equivalent to saying that an exponential rise there is impossible. While it is visibly going on
The Warrington 7-day cases total day by day (note that a rapid curve upwards is impossible if Warrington has locally achieved herd immunity. And, in any case, it is a rapid upwards curve in exposure to the young (under-30s) that we're discussing):
And the concentration is in...
... ages 15-34. Exactly the ages we're discussing.
I am going on record as saying that there IS an upwards curve in cases and that the heatmap IS darkest in the regions of age 15-34.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
One thing, I don't think a substantially new UK variant will be cooked up. There's insufficient naive vulnerable hosts for the virus left.
All the nasty new variants have been in times and places of colossal prevalence - UK Christmas (Kent), India, Brazil , South Africa.
No the Kent variant was first sequenced in September, when cases were actually slightly lower than now.
New variants are unlikely to be cooked up in vaccinated hosts.
I hope you're right, but not everybody is vaccinated and vaccines aren't 100% effective. Anyway, it's not true that the Kent variant was incubated "in times and places of colossal prevalence". India and Brazil seem to have been.
Yes. Am weary of hearing "all the vulnerable have been double jabbed" trotted out by those who are double jabbed or not vulnerable. They ought to have seen the crowd at the Centre for Life yesterday. A great many were much older than me at 54. And quite a few were in obvious poor health. Obese. Unable to stand in queue for 10 minutes. Unable to walk unaided, etc, etc. I do appreciate we are closing this gap every single day. But it hasn't been done yet.
Given the existence of 5 million unused AZN jabs in the UK (and presumably more being delivered every day), it's not clear to me why the government doesn't offer walk-in AZN jabs to anyone who wants them.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
Because the government don’t want some photogenic young lady to die of a blood clot, photos of her in hospital covered in tubes on the front pages.
Remember when Leah Betts died from E, and scared our generation sh!tless about drugs? Imagine the same scenario, but with the massive headlines “Killed by the vaccine”
Given the existence of 5 million unused AZN jabs in the UK (and presumably more being delivered every day), it's not clear to me why the government doesn't offer walk-in AZN jabs to anyone who wants them.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
Our JCVI has been very good previously with the 12 week, AZ approval, switching to mRNA for pregnant/u-40 but yes things are changing with the delta variant. It'd mean 12 - 17 double mRNA; 18 - 24 cohort with Az / mRNA, 25 - 40 with double mRNA, 40 - 75 double AZ and 75+ mainly double pfizer. But things have been changing all pandemic so it's not an issue.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
As the visitors took the knee and several home players pointed at the 'respect' logo on their sleeves as they stood, a chorus of boos and jeers rang out around the Szusza Ferenc Stadion
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
I don't think the recent experience of India is one anyone want to emulate
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
Cases are certainly surging in Surrey, where there are zero cities and refuseniks are as rare as aardvarks. Hospitalisation is nudging upwards but still low. You can argue "Don't worry, it's mostly the young who are less likely to be hospitalised or die", but you can't seriously say that cases are not surging. The jury's still out on the hospitalisation issue, I think.
According to the Athletic, Croatia have said they won't be involved in any taking of the knee when they play.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
As they are a Roman Catholic country they probably feel they will leave genuflecting to their church aisles.
Speaking of which, does anyone know the origin of "taking the knee" please? If you look at the history of genuflexion it is a sign of humility in the face of one's superior (God in the RC trad), so why would this be done? To whom are they honouring or showing servitude, or is it meant to be therefore ironic, that they do not?
This R number herd immunity analysis is basically pointless - the immunity distribution is extremely structured rather than being equally spread through the population. Young people tend to spend most of their time with their own age group, so clearly there is no herd immunity in those groupings, whilst there will be in plenty of coastal retirement towns.
We made the decision to prioritise saving lives over achieving herd immunity as soon as possible as soon as we started allocating by age.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
When Covid incidence is high, then people avoid social interactions.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Comments
https://www.joe.ie/sport/pic-james-mcclean-pens-open-letter-to-wigan-chairman-explaining-why-he-wont-be-wearing-a-poppy-tonight-474522
Personally I think he's a twat. But I very much respect his right to be a twat.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
In this way, we can help collapse the number of potential hosts more quickly and get the UK's first doses number back up to record levels.
Jan-Apr 2021 vs Jan-Apr 2020
German 🇩🇪 exports to:
+11% total
+15% 🇪🇺
+12% 🇺🇸
+21% 🇨🇳
-6% 🇬🇧
https://twitter.com/DennisNovy/status/1402614377291948034
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-57413224
One customer able to mess up and bring down half the internet.... imagine if somebody was deliberately trying to cause mayhem.
80% is sufficient for herd immunity for an R0 of 5.
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
so many UK government Brexit positions boil down to 'oh come on, can't you just bend the rules a little for your old pal who spent the last five years *checks notes* likening you to a Nazi superstate?
https://youtu.be/OHBua3aXQ7c
If we want to no longer care about prevalence and just let people get on with it regardless of exposure to the virus, then we have to assume everyone will be exposed to the virus. And the risk will be literally orders of magnitude greater.
The risk that the JCVI measured was the risk from covid multiplied by a very small number (risk of catching it).
If you set the risk of catching it to close to 1 (which is the scenario we wish to be in, where we don't care if people catch it because they won't get seriously ill), then you multiply that risk by the reciprocal of that very small number.
Which is, of course, a very large number.
Without taking that into account and continuing to quote the value from multiplying the risk-if-you-catch-covid with the very low number of risk-of-catching-covid, the wrong risk number comes out.
If we have herd immunity, it won't.
Let's say a £100 bet that case numbers will be higher by this time next week than they are today (cases against specimen date, 7-day average taken)?
I think we should unlock on June 21st but we do not have herd immunity.
In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions.
This does not seem to be happening.
"Cyber Security
Exporting Chinese surveillance: the security risks of ‘smart cities’
Critics say the technology can be a tool for ‘digital authoritarianism’ and leaves countries vulnerable to cyber attack"
https://www.ft.com/content/76fdac7c-7076-47a4-bcb0-7e75af0aadab
I always thought that Brexit would herald an era of paranoia and insanity from the British right, but this latest spat is really beyond belief.
But there are not the conditions there were at the start of the year for an ever-exponential rise in cases. The virus is going to run out of people it can infect because of the immunity.
https://twitter.com/di1cox/status/1402553470264262679?s=21
Sounds like a single customer’s setting (probably DNS) applied itself globally, and replicated itself to a couple of dozen CDN data centres.
I'd caution those pinning hope on Biden resolving this. If I were still in No 10 & had serious concerns about integrity of UK union & was willing to risk undermining trade with largest trading partner, what US had to say wouldn't be defining factor (2/2)
https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1402616552608911362?s=20
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
Indeed, iirc she argues it might change with seasonality.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/britain-uk/2020-full-year-britain-new-car-market-overview-and-analysis/
Here in Oxfordshire, they're up 180.5% on the week.
In every region of England, they are climbing. That is not possible if we have widespread herd immunity.
It has a very specific meaning, and the entire point of continuing to vaccinate is to MAKE the virus run out of people it can infect.
At the moment, half of young people have no antibodies and can therefore be infected. These are literally the people we're talking about for this particular risk calculation, and these are where the case rises are currently concentrated.
That risk calculation has changed by more than a factor of two nationwide for them since it was made and is changing negatively for them by the day. The statement that the vaccine is more dangerous for them than the virus is specifically and unequivocally false. It was only an edge case even then; change the odds by a factor of two and it's definitely no longer the case.
(And, in any case, the chance of mortality from clots if they occur has dropped from 1 in 5 to 1 in 40 following Australia's experience: https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-can-treat-it-mortality-rate-of-rare-condition-linked-to-astrazeneca-shot-plunges-20210607-p57yod.html
All the nasty new variants have been in times and places of colossal prevalence - UK Christmas (Kent), India, Brazil , South Africa.
Oh, wait.
My overriding feeling was… it sounds benign.
Was that the inference I was supposed to make?
I'm from Warrington in the Northwest, just a few miles from Bolton and Blackburn and Darwen, and literally neighbouring Greater Manchester. For much of the pandemic Sky's in-hospital reporting came from Warrington Hospital.
As of the latest data on the Coronavirus.data.gov.uk site across the entirety of Warrington and Halton there are a grand total in hospital of: Two people. Not over 200 as there were throughout January, just 2. None on ventilation.
Across Preston, South Ribble and Chorley there's a grand total of: Four people.
My partner didn't even have it mentioned a few weeks ago.
Given all that, it is no surprise mortality from clotting is on the decrease.
With a dollop of NI fudge, for any minor issues remaining.
The Irish need to educate the EU about NI fudge, because there’s no workable long term solution without it. It’s been a feature of NI for decades.
Heard from Brit diplomatic source that Biden taking 600-strong delegation to UK, none of whom has to quarantine.
https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1402629506217697282?s=20
The fact that I am double jabbed and wish to see my family is a complete coincidence.
I think the rules will change, and quite dramatically around international travel, once everyone’s been offered the vaccine in the UK.
This was from a steady rise since the 24th of May. It has increased by more than a factor of 10 in that time.
That's a doubling time of just over 4 days.
Warrington is not at herd immunity.
It has avoided hospitalisations so far due to two reasons:
1 - There is a lag; hospital data for Warrington is reported upto the 1st of June, which would go across to infections as of the 22nd of May (before the cases rise)
2 - The infections should be concentrated on the young. Fewer of them will roll up in hospital (albeit there will be some, some of whom will end up with long-term health issues)
Your statement that there is herd immunity there is semantically equivalent to saying that an exponential rise there is impossible.
While it is visibly going on
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00709-1?rss=yes&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.YMDAIw7jq44.twitter
One of my fav quotes again from 1066 and All That: " Mr Gladstone spent the latter part of his career trying to guess the answer to the Irish Question, but just as he was getting warm the Irish secretly changed the question."
Theodore Roosevelt
Richard Nixon
Bill Clinton
Barack Obama
And the grandchildren of Biden.
Czechs won't either, apparently will point to a badge.
If you want to wait in line for Moderna/Pfizer, that's up to you. But you can have AZN now if you like.
I would also offer all people who choose to get AZN now, the opportunity to get their second shot with Moderna/Pfizer.
And the concentration is in...
... ages 15-34. Exactly the ages we're discussing.
I am going on record as saying that there IS an upwards curve in cases and that the heatmap IS darkest in the regions of age 15-34.
They ought to have seen the crowd at the Centre for Life yesterday.
A great many were much older than me at 54.
And quite a few were in obvious poor health. Obese. Unable to stand in queue for 10 minutes. Unable to walk unaided, etc, etc.
I do appreciate we are closing this gap every single day. But it hasn't been done yet.
Remember when Leah Betts died from E, and scared our generation sh!tless about drugs? Imagine the same scenario, but with the massive headlines “Killed by the vaccine”
But things have been changing all pandemic so it's not an issue.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/57386249
We made the decision to prioritise saving lives over achieving herd immunity as soon as possible as soon as we started allocating by age.
Just like in - ooohhhh... - every other country.