Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
That's why I would deploy the AZN jabs to anybody who wants it. Lets make sure anybody who wants to be covered can be covered as soon as possible.
We could get 5 million additional people covered in next 2 weeks.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
In the real world the covid pandemic is over and its time to lift lockdown, lose masks, lose restrictions and just have guidance for anyone that wants to follow it.
From the original post, can we have a hint as to the 'delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister' please?
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I come back from sorting all sorts of family issues ..... stuffing a duvet cover for a start ...... and find some really silly misunderstandings of, in particular, Mr DS's post. At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible. Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Will we all need boosters against recent and future variants ?
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Will we all need boosters against recent and future variants ?
We have our flu vaccine every year and think nothing of it, maybe the same will be true for covid
For sure I just wondered if current jabs enough or we will.need more
Sign of the times: zero cabinet ministers admit to planning a foreign holiday this summer. In @theipaper poll every one who responded (16 of em) said they're either staying in the UK, or haven't made their plans yet.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
In the real world the covid pandemic is over and its time to lift lockdown, lose masks, lose restrictions and just have guidance for anyone that wants to follow it.
From the original post, can we have a hint as to the 'delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister' please?
Any chance they’re pro-lockdown and it can be used against them?
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
Not at all because once again
IN SEPTEMBER VERY FEW PEOPLE WERE VACCINATED
This talk of a third wave can only mean that the vaccinations, which were supposed to be our silver bullet, are not trusted.
I don't think thats true. We are seeing a third wave of cases develop now, before our eyes. We are seeing much much smaller third waves of hospitalization and deaths (if at all for the latter). This is what the vaccines were supposed to do - break the link to serious illness, and they are. We are seeing most new cases in the unvaccinated population (under 25 because they've not had the chance and some in refusers). Its no surprise that this is happening. Its only a concern if it develops into a lot of hospital cases. Bolton and Bedford suggest that won't be the case.
Agree with most of what you said. (I meant not trusted by those panicking for extended restrictions.)
No-one could describe the increase in hospitalisations as a third wave.
Here are the Wednesday new hospitalisation figures doing back from today (going back in time in two week gaps):
123 115 106 124 181 268 465 725
Anyone arguing for a deferment of 21 June is not arguing from the evidence. They are arguing from a fear that things might get worse. And this is insufficient, IMO, to even remotely warrant further restraint by the state of personal freedoms.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
I thought according to you we already have "herd immunity"? I thought that was an article of your faith?
Yes. Herd immunity doesn't mean no animal in the herd can possibly ever get sick.
Even if we have herd immunity on average there will be pockets of the herd where it is below average. The virus will spread in those pockets of areas where there are vulnerabilities but it won't take off and sweep through the herd as a whole like it could last year.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
That's why I would deploy the AZN jabs to anybody who wants it. Lets make sure anybody who wants to be covered can be covered as soon as possible.
We could get 5 million more people covered in next 2 weeks.
I think PB is agreed on this (apart from Dura Ace and Contrarian).
The original rationale for suspending AZ for under 40s was the risk of blood clots outweighs the risk of Covid or transmission: in a Very Low Covid Prevalence Situation. We are no longer in that situation, we are looking at potential exponential growth, once again
Sign of the times: zero cabinet ministers admit to planning a foreign holiday this summer. In @theipaper poll every one who responded (16 of em) said they're either staying in the UK, or haven't made their plans yet.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Re your last sentence the only insane thing is to refuse a vaccination
What is it to you? you have had your two vaccines and are bullet proof. As are the vastly huge majority of people in your cohort.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
Total bollox. thanks for the comments though, as it is useful to have you on here; it makes me challenge long held values of my own, such as the principle of treating all people with respect and the importance of universal suffrage that includes the clinically insane.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
That's how it feels to me too, although this virus does keep surprising us. This is surely like that final jump scare scene in all good horror movies when the evil thing you thought was dead comes back for one final lunge before getting the wooden stake in the heart.
A curve like India has seen, on a per capita basis but with the benefits of vaccination, would see us with a month or two of exponential growth, flattening then sharp decline and possibly a max daily count of 30-40k but limited rises in deaths and the NHS never close to overwhelmed.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
Can we get Tim Martin, Rocco Forte and Andrew Lloyd-Webber camping in Downing St?
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
Or maybe we could borrow Anders Tegnell for a couple of days. Lock Johnson in a room with him.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
The very definition of 'selfish'
You are always so polite that you have my admiration.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
I thought according to you we already have "herd immunity"? I thought that was an article of your faith?
Yes. Herd immunity doesn't mean no animal in the herd can possibly ever get sick.
Even if we have herd immunity on average there will be pockets of the herd where it is below average. The virus will spread in those pockets of areas where there are vulnerabilities but it won't take off and sweep through the herd as a whole like it could last year.
Which is what it is doing now - filling in niches.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Re your last sentence the only insane thing is to refuse a vaccination
What is it to you? you have had your two vaccines and are bullet proof. As are the vastly huge majority of people in your cohort.
Yes but we are not all selfish and vaccines are not just to protect oneself, but also to protect those that can't have a vaccine by creating herd immunity. So your selfishness is putting others at risk.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
I thought according to you we already have "herd immunity"? I thought that was an article of your faith?
Yes. Herd immunity doesn't mean no animal in the herd can possibly ever get sick.
Even if we have herd immunity on average there will be pockets of the herd where it is below average. The virus will spread in those pockets of areas where there are vulnerabilities but it won't take off and sweep through the herd as a whole like it could last year.
Stick to subjects you understand perhaps? Oh, hang on....
She's not the only one. The chance of our nutters down here letting go of their powers also appears to be something close to zero.
The aim of the game now appears to be to keep, at a minimum, the poxy masks in force until the Autumn, and then use the bad weather/Winter flu argument to keep this bullshit going indefinitely. Same will happen in Scotland.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
6 would be plausible. Alpha was more than 50% more transmissible, and Delta is somewhere in the region of 50% more transmissible than Alpha (so 2.25 times Original Covid)
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
That's how it feels to me too, although this virus does keep surprising us. This is surely like that final jump scare scene in all good horror movies when the evil thing you thought was dead comes back for one final lunge before getting the wooden stake in the heart.
A curve like India has seen, on a per capita basis but with the benefits of vaccination, would see us with a month or two of exponential growth, flattening then sharp decline and possibly a max daily count of 30-40k but limited rises in deaths and the NHS never close to overwhelmed.
The Indian variant reminds of the V2 campaign near the end of World War 2.
Just as we thought we had Hitler beaten, he launched this super-weapon.
If he'd had this technology 2-3 years earlier, he might easily have won the war, especially if you add nukes. However it came too late, the Allies were overrunning occupied Europe and Hitler ran out of time, slaves. space, materials
The allies are the vaccines, overwhelming the virus, even as it shows this sting in the tail. We hope
I'm increasingly of the opinion that Boris won't hold his nerve. We'll probably end up with a two week delay for more data to come out.
I still support relaxing legal restrictions, but looking at the data:
1) Cases are increasing at a rapid rate. Not only that, the increase is accelerating (% increase on 7-day average going up each day, now at +66%). Arguing that we've reached herd immunity is demonstrably wrong.
2) Hospitalisation data is good, but still probably increasing slowly. The relative unknown is what that will look like 2 weeks after we reach 20k cases a day, which will be used as an argument to wait for more data before easing. Similar story for deaths, but with a longer lag there's not much evidence of an increase yet.
3) New vaccinations are outpacing cases still, which will help with both points 1 and 2 above. This can be used to argue for "wait until X% vaccinated"...
A possible political argument for easing is the above will continue even with the current restrictions, so by keeping things where they are Johnson is pleasing precisely no one. It won't stop cases rising, but it means lots of people have their lives disrupted for longer (e.g. friends of mine that have already-delayed weddings planned for early July).
She's not the only one. The chance of our nutters down here letting go of their powers also appears to be something close to zero.
The aim of the game now appears to be to keep, at a minimum, the poxy masks in force until the Autumn, and then use the bad weather/Winter flu argument to keep this bullshit going indefinitely. Same will happen in Scotland.
I hear that some of the SAGE guys are enjoying their time in the sun so much that they actually have agents (for media bookings etc).
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
The very definition of 'selfish'
We have been here before but that is rich coming from you.
In respect of the Britain they will inherit eventually, the young of our country have been thrown to the wolves to protect your generation. Absolutely to the wolves.
This virus affected them hardly at all, and they have been sacrificed at every turn.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
The only group I think is excusable to go without the vaccine is women in, particularly the early, stages of pregnancy. Miscarriage risk is high enough as it is without worrying about an untrialled (On pregnant women) vaccine. We know from data in the states that mc risk is not likely to be substanitally increased but as I said the actual trials excluded pregnancy. But you're really not in that category.
"An elite American graduate is behind the removal of the Queen’s portrait from an Oxford college common room over the royal family’s historic links to colonial rule.
Matthew Katzman, president of Magdalen College’s 200-strong “middle common room” (MCR) of graduate students, is studying for a doctorate in computer science while also lecturing at Jesus College.
He is from Bethesda, Maryland, and attended the exclusive Sidwell Francis School, whose alumni include the children of several presidents. His father, Scott, is a prominent Washington lawyer." (£)
If a UK postgrad from a wealthy family had proposed removing a portrait of the US President from the walls at Harvard I expect his actions would have been met with equal uproar
He's the MCR President. I'm not sure how that means he is "behind" this given there was a vote. Its not a dictatorship.
He wasn't. As President his job is to officially propose motions put to him - we don't know who the original author(s) of the motion were - but since it passed "overwhelmingly" we'll be spoilt for choice....
It is worth remembering that six people probably turned up for the MCR meeting, and of these, two were Chinese PhD students with a weak grasp of English, one was a US naval officer on an exchange programme, two were the college's resident Trots, and it isn't clear if the final attendee was actually a member of the college.
6th member was the college dog, who is officially a cat, because dogs aren't allowed inside the college.
She's not the only one. The chance of our nutters down here letting go of their powers also appears to be something close to zero.
The aim of the game now appears to be to keep, at a minimum, the poxy masks in force until the Autumn, and then use the bad weather/Winter flu argument to keep this bullshit going indefinitely. Same will happen in Scotland.
I hear that some of the SAGE guys are enjoying their time in the sun so much that they actually have agents (for media bookings etc).
Is that surprising?
Even flint-knapping sex toy makers now have agents, according to one comment earlier on this thread.
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I’m not sure that’s fair.
He does seem genuine. I think his views are probably pretty widespread in for example, the red states in the US.
I just find the decision not to take the vaccine baffling. The risk/reward ratio is so obviously in favour of taking it for a male of middle age and upwards, which is a category iirc, contrarian falls into.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
The only group I think is excusable to go without the vaccine is women in, particularly the early, stages of pregnancy. Miscarriage risk is high enough as it is without worrying about an untrialled (On pregnant women) vaccine. We know from data in the states that mc risk is not likely to be substanitally increased but as I said the actual trials excluded pregnancy. But you're really not in that category.
Pfizer are doing trials in the US now, on pregnant women and toddlers. How the hell they get volunteers for these, I have no idea.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Re your last sentence the only insane thing is to refuse a vaccination
What is it to you? you have had your two vaccines and are bullet proof. As are the vastly huge majority of people in your cohort.
Yes but we are not all selfish and vaccines are not just to protect oneself, but also to protect those that can't have a vaccine by creating herd immunity. So your selfishness is putting others at risk.
Oh here we go, the civic duty argument.
Surely whether a person is a good citizen or not should be seen in the round. For example, is a criminal who has been vaccinated a better 'citizen' than a hard working taxpayer who is not?
You are simply turning on me in your frustration that you are not free even though you have complied at every step.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
You are an anti-vaxxer though. You use the terminology of the scientifically illiterate such as "experimental" . You have swallowed it all, hook line etc. I suspect you read and reread all the conspiracy theories you can find. You are a Russian bot farm's dream. The type that made Cambridge Analytica rub their hands with joy at the thought of the ultimate stupidity of the gullible internet user. I wonder whether they monitored your FB account as a case study?
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Re your last sentence the only insane thing is to refuse a vaccination
What is it to you? you have had your two vaccines and are bullet proof. As are the vastly huge majority of people in your cohort.
And my grandchildren are at risk because of your selfish attitude
She's not the only one. The chance of our nutters down here letting go of their powers also appears to be something close to zero.
The aim of the game now appears to be to keep, at a minimum, the poxy masks in force until the Autumn, and then use the bad weather/Winter flu argument to keep this bullshit going indefinitely. Same will happen in Scotland.
I hear that some of the SAGE guys are enjoying their time in the sun so much that they actually have agents (for media bookings etc).
Is that surprising?
Even flint-knapping sex toy makers now have agents, according to one comment earlier on this thread.
Not only that, an agent with top gossip about ***** *********
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
The only group I think is excusable to go without the vaccine is women in, particularly the early, stages of pregnancy. Miscarriage risk is high enough as it is without worrying about an untrialled (On pregnant women) vaccine. We know from data in the states that mc risk is not likely to be substanitally increased but as I said the actual trials excluded pregnancy. But you're really not in that category.
Pfizer are doing trials in the US now, on pregnant women and toddlers. How the hell they get volunteers for these, I have no idea.
How can they be doing trials on pregnant women when it's generally being taken up by them ? Unless if you sign up to the trial there's a chance you get a placebo. Not sure I'd take up that one if I was in their position !
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I know my views are objectionable to very many on here, but the number and consistency of my posts shows I am not a troll. I believe passionately in my freedom and position.
Liberty was and is my birthright. It was bought in blood and treasure by previous generations. It is, or it was, the best thing about being British. It was the best thing about being human.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
The only group I think is excusable to go without the vaccine is women in, particularly the early, stages of pregnancy. Miscarriage risk is high enough as it is without worrying about an untrialled (On pregnant women) vaccine. We know from data in the states that mc risk is not likely to be substanitally increased but as I said the actual trials excluded pregnancy. But you're really not in that category.
Pfizer are doing trials in the US now, on pregnant women and toddlers. How the hell they get volunteers for these, I have no idea.
I have often wondered same, in spite of knowing how carefully such trials are carried out . The rest of humanity can be grateful that such people exist.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Well it may or may not be. Depends on how much testing there is. We are still testing massive numbers of asymptomatic people. And creating a cumulative multiplier effect by surge testing in areas where the variant is believed to be prevalent.
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I’m not sure that’s fair.
He does seem genuine. I think his views are probably pretty widespread in for example, the red states in the US.
I just find the decision not to take the vaccine baffling. The risk/reward ratio is so obviously in favour of taking it for a male of middle age and upwards, which is a category iirc, contrarian falls into.
There really shouldn't be so much bafflement about this. The standard libertarian position would be: 1) oppose authoritarian measures regardless of whether a vaccine existed or not, and 2) to on principle (or stubbornly if you prefer) not agree to be vaccinated just because the state says so.
It's all about being opposed to state coercion in all forms. Red states is right - libertarian wild-west thinking I call it.
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
Troll is a bit unfair. He just argues from an unpopular and unusual standpoint. On this one I happen to disagree 100% with him. But I'm glad he's here putting the view across. May be one day he'll argue the unfashionable on a topic where you or I can see eye to eye with him. Or even where we will have to concede he may have a bit of a point. Which would never happen if we never heard from him.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I know my views are objectionable to very many on here, but the number and consistency of my posts shows I am not a troll. I believe passionately in my freedom and position.
Liberty was and is my birthright. It was bought in blood and treasure by previous generations. It is, or it was, the best thing about being British. It was the best thing about being human.
Do you mean my wife and my generation who lived through WW2 and lost family so you could be free
As I said before just get vaccinated, it is not hard
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I’m not sure that’s fair.
He does seem genuine. I think his views are probably pretty widespread in for example, the red states in the US.
I just find the decision not to take the vaccine baffling. The risk/reward ratio is so obviously in favour of taking it for a male of middle age and upwards, which is a category iirc, contrarian falls into.
There really shouldn't be so much bafflement about this. The standard libertarian position would be: 1) oppose authoritarian measures regardless of whether a vaccine existed or not, and 2) to on principle (or stubbornly if you prefer) not agree to be vaccinated just because the state says so.
It's all about being opposed to state coercion in all forms. Red states is right - libertarian wild-west thinking I call it.
(2) is not libertarian in the slightest. Not unless you've completely bastardised the term.
Libertarian is to avoid state coercion and to make your own choice. Since the evidence is that the vaccine is good for you and others the sane libertarian thing to do is to take the vaccine because its good for you and others of your own free choice, not because the state says so.
The NHS says to drink water. The libertarian thing to do is not to refuse to drink water as a result.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I know my views are objectionable to very many on here, but the number and consistency of my posts shows I am not a troll. I believe passionately in my freedom and position.
Liberty was and is my birthright. It was bought in blood and treasure by previous generations. It is, or it was, the best thing about being British. It was the best thing about being human.
Anti-vaxxers in my view are the equivalent of what the Americans call draft dodgers. It is not simply that you have chosen not to take the vaccine, it is that you spout disinformation, and no doubt do that in "real life" also, so please don't try the patriotic line. You are not patriotic, you are just a small minded, selfish and deluded soul who is either scared of a needle or who wants to glory in how he is not prepared to take a tiny risk and be part of the only real strategy that stands any chance of bringing this poxy pandemic to an end for the good of the rest.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Indeed but we are not the only country in Europe with a significant Indian diaspora and I really have seen no evidence that they were quicker than us in stopping flights.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
Scared? I am off to a p8ss up in London tomorrow.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
There have been over 40 million first dose vaccinations in the UK. Total turnout for the EU ref was 33,577,342. For both sides.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
Not having a vaccine does not make you an anti-vaxxer.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
The only group I think is excusable to go without the vaccine is women in, particularly the early, stages of pregnancy. Miscarriage risk is high enough as it is without worrying about an untrialled (On pregnant women) vaccine. We know from data in the states that mc risk is not likely to be substanitally increased but as I said the actual trials excluded pregnancy. But you're really not in that category.
Pfizer are doing trials in the US now, on pregnant women and toddlers. How the hell they get volunteers for these, I have no idea.
How can they be doing trials on pregnant women when it's generally being taken up by them ? Unless if you sign up to the trial there's a chance you get a placebo. Not sure I'd take up that one if I was in their position !
You’re right, the trials on pregnant women finished successfully a few weeks ago. Pfizer and Moderna.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
Raab? Portland (resto)?
No way Raab. He's a finely-tuned machine. Look at him.
Gotta dash but re @contrarian I'm sure 87% of people criticising him and his perfectly consistent views which haven't changed much over the course of the pandemic are just doing so because they are scared that he is speaking much truth. Which to a very large extent he is.
But no people mock him for not wanting to put something into his body that the government says he should. Ponder that. Not wanting to inject something that was developed less than a year ago. That that is worthy of mockery no matter the good or bad reasons for doing so is extraordinary.
I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with a helluva lot of it. I have posted much about the freedom vs safety element and the imo egregious transgressions of the govt against our liberties but people on here (and in the UK it seems) are happy to swallow them all because they think they are being kept safe.
Before another bout of hysteria breaks out on here, the question I would ask is does what the Govt decides re 21 June actually matter to 90%+ of people?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I’m not sure that’s fair.
He does seem genuine. I think his views are probably pretty widespread in for example, the red states in the US.
I just find the decision not to take the vaccine baffling. The risk/reward ratio is so obviously in favour of taking it for a male of middle age and upwards, which is a category iirc, contrarian falls into.
There really shouldn't be so much bafflement about this. The standard libertarian position would be: 1) oppose authoritarian measures regardless of whether a vaccine existed or not, and 2) to on principle (or stubbornly if you prefer) not agree to be vaccinated just because the state says so.
It's all about being opposed to state coercion in all forms. Red states is right - libertarian wild-west thinking I call it.
(2) is not libertarian in the slightest. Not unless you've completely bastardised the term.
Libertarian is to avoid state coercion and to make your own choice. Since the evidence is that the vaccine is good for you and others the sane libertarian thing to do is to take the vaccine because its good for you and others of your own free choice, not because the state says so.
The NHS says to drink water. The libertarian thing to do is not to refuse to drink water as a result.
And @contrarian has already said in a previous post ages ago that he may take the vaccine, but when he does it will be of his own choice and not just because the state tells him too. (Personally, like you, I think the time has come for him to take the jab in the reassurance that holding out this long has ensured that he hasn't compromised his principles!)
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
I’m not sure that’s fair.
He does seem genuine. I think his views are probably pretty widespread in for example, the red states in the US.
I just find the decision not to take the vaccine baffling. The risk/reward ratio is so obviously in favour of taking it for a male of middle age and upwards, which is a category iirc, contrarian falls into.
There really shouldn't be so much bafflement about this. The standard libertarian position would be: 1) oppose authoritarian measures regardless of whether a vaccine existed or not, and 2) to on principle (or stubbornly if you prefer) not agree to be vaccinated just because the state says so.
It's all about being opposed to state coercion in all forms. Red states is right - libertarian wild-west thinking I call it.
Yes Red state libertarian probably covers it.
I was actually vaccinated against flu in 2019, but that was something I decided for myself weighing up the pros and cons objectively with no interference.
The Covid vaccine, just like the mask and the social distancing have far, far advanced beyond mere health measures. Far beyond.
Now Red states are opening fully, or have opened fully for a while, and we see the results. And they have given me encouragement that I have a point.
Indeed, Red state outcomes challenge everything we believe to be true about our own response to the virus. And that is why we hear so little about them, I guess.
I feel a bit like how a citizen of an Eastern bloc country must have felt looking out at the West before communism collapsed. Partying. Enjoying freedom. Living.
Gotta dash but re @contrarian I'm sure 87% of people criticising him and his perfectly consistent views which haven't changed much over the course of the pandemic are just doing so because they are scared that he is speaking much truth. Which to a very large extent he is.
But no people mock him for not wanting to put something into his body that the government says he should. Ponder that. Not wanting to inject something that was developed less than a year ago. That that is worthy of mockery no matter the good or bad reasons for doing so is extraordinary.
I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with a helluva lot of it. I have posted much about the freedom vs safety element and the imo egregious transgressions of the govt against our liberties but people on here (and in the UK it seems) are happy to swallow them all because they think they are being kept safe.
This may be so - but at what cost?
Indeed. Not many disagreeing with him are arguing for compulsory forced vaccination on the unwilling. So long as they aren't calling for the government to do so, then he is free not to bother.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
Raab? Portland (resto)?
No way Raab. He's a finely-tuned machine. Look at him.
I’m actually a Raab fan*, tho still haven’t forgiven him for backing prorogation during the Tory leadership context.
*As in, I don’t actively wish evil upon him, unlike the way I feel about most of his colleagues.
Gotta dash but re @contrarianI'm sure 87% of people criticising him and his perfectly consistent views which haven't changed much over the course of the pandemic are just doing so because they are scared that he is speaking much truth. Which to a very large extent he is.
But no people mock him for not wanting to put something into his body that the government says he should. Ponder that. Not wanting to inject something that was developed less than a year ago. That that is worthy of mockery no matter the good or bad reasons for doing so is extraordinary.
I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with a helluva lot of it. I have posted much about the freedom vs safety element and the imo egregious transgressions of the govt against our liberties but people on here (and in the UK it seems) are happy to swallow them all because they think they are being kept safe.
This may be so - but at what cost?
Utter nonsense on stilts. Phil Thompson, Anabobazina and MaxPB are arguing vociferously against further lockdown and they've all been vaccinated. Everyone I know pretty much except a few youngster shave had the vaccine and you know what, they're all fine. All of them. I know a couple of handfuls of people who've had Covid and some of them have become long coviders. It's just crackers to not bother with the vaccine.
Before another bout of hysteria breaks out on here, the question I would ask is does what the Govt decides re 21 June actually matter to 90%+ of people?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
I think there is a big difference between businesses (especially pubs) being open, and businesses operating probably (or at least not making losses). People see “crowded” businesses and automatically assume they must be making money. However they can quite possibly only do that by significantly upping their prices and assuming that the demand will still fill them up.
Gotta dash but re @contrarian I'm sure 87% of people criticising him and his perfectly consistent views which haven't changed much over the course of the pandemic are just doing so because they are scared that he is speaking much truth. Which to a very large extent he is.
But no people mock him for not wanting to put something into his body that the government says he should. Ponder that. Not wanting to inject something that was developed less than a year ago. That that is worthy of mockery no matter the good or bad reasons for doing so is extraordinary.
I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with a helluva lot of it. I have posted much about the freedom vs safety element and the imo egregious transgressions of the govt against our liberties but people on here (and in the UK it seems) are happy to swallow them all because they think they are being kept safe.
This may be so - but at what cost?
We don't have any choice. We are in a plague. It's like fighting a terrible world war, and we were losing, until the vaccines arrived
High-minded refusals of the vax programme are like conscientious objection in that same terrible war. If everyone does it, we are all fucked
Stop the selfish posing, get jabbed, enough. Otherwise we won't help you if you fall ill. You die alone
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
Raab? Portland (resto)?
No way Raab. He's a finely-tuned machine. Look at him.
On the left is Doug Neidermeier, alumnus of Faber College, antagonist in the cult John Belushi movie “Animal House”, supposedly killed by his own men in Vietnam after graduation...OR WAS HE?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Re your last sentence the only insane thing is to refuse a vaccination
What is it to you? you have had your two vaccines and are bullet proof. As are the vastly huge majority of people in your cohort.
Yes but we are not all selfish and vaccines are not just to protect oneself, but also to protect those that can't have a vaccine by creating herd immunity. So your selfishness is putting others at risk.
Oh here we go, the civic duty argument.
Surely whether a person is a good citizen or not should be seen in the round. For example, is a criminal who has been vaccinated a better 'citizen' than a hard working taxpayer who is not?
You are simply turning on me in your frustration that you are not free even though you have complied at every step.
Well there is someone who is talking absolute bollocks because he doesn't know anything about me. You shouldn't jump to conclusions. As it happens I am off to Portugal (of all places) on Friday for urgent family reasons, so I am not being frustrated and have not been one iota during the whole episode. However I do make rational decisions before acting and not having a vaccine is not rational.
It is ludicrous to starting weighing up wrongs like that. By your logic someone who kills someone by drunk driving is ok because they aren't a serial killer. Absolutely nutty argument. Both you and the criminal are wrong, but in your case you may cause someone to die.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
axYes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Indeed but we are not the only country in Europe with a significant Indian diaspora and I really have seen no evidence that they were quicker than us in stopping flights.
My guess is that our Indian diaspora is much bigger, because Empire
Aaaaand Wiki supports this. Here's a list of diaspora Indian communities by size
Gotta dash but re @contrarian I'm sure 87% of people criticising him and his perfectly consistent views which haven't changed much over the course of the pandemic are just doing so because they are scared that he is speaking much truth. Which to a very large extent he is.
But no people mock him for not wanting to put something into his body that the government says he should. Ponder that. Not wanting to inject something that was developed less than a year ago. That that is worthy of mockery no matter the good or bad reasons for doing so is extraordinary.
I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with a helluva lot of it. I have posted much about the freedom vs safety element and the imo egregious transgressions of the govt against our liberties but people on here (and in the UK it seems) are happy to swallow them all because they think they are being kept safe.
Before another bout of hysteria breaks out on here, the question I would ask is does what the Govt decides re 21 June actually matter to 90%+ of people?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
Up to a point that's true. Leaving aside foreign holidays, where there's the complicating factor of what's going on in other countries to be considered, the remaining restrictions only ban outright large family occasions and a small number of venues like nightclubs, i.e. most people will indeed be unaffected. Not that this is much comfort to businesses and workers in the wedding and nightlife businesses, but hey-ho, let's just chuck 'em on the bonfire for the sake of "safety," shall we?
None of this doesn't mean that our lives aren't severely mucked about with nonetheless. Limits on all gatherings. Social distancing everywhere. These wretched fucking masks, custom made to leave you gasping for air in a hot building or bus or train in this weather. The hand sanitiser at every doorway. The constant nannying/bullying to comply with rules, all of which are inconvenient and many of which are downright silly.
But above all, the real concern is that this will never end. If the deal was that we were made to wait two weeks, or three weeks, or until the start of the school holidays, but that the promise was that the rules would be binned at the end of that period, then the imminent prospect of can kicking would not be so hard to take. Rather, it's the strong suspicion that there will just be an endless string of excuses for why public health fascism has to drag on and on and on. Not all adults have been vaccinated. Not all adults have been double vaccinated. What about the kids? What about the schools reopening? What about the cold, damp weather come the Autumn? What about the booster shots? What about the flu? On and on and on and on and on and on and on. Always one more excuse.
I don't want to spend the rest of my life being picked on and harassed and bossed about and told to "Stay safe," FFS. This, to me, doesn't seem like an especially controversial stance. After all, who really enjoys living like this, apart from the people who get a hardon from inflicting this misery on others?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
axYes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Indeed but we are not the only country in Europe with a significant Indian diaspora and I really have seen no evidence that they were quicker than us in stopping flights.
My guess is that our Indian diaspora is much bigger, because Empire
Aaaaand Wiki supports this. Here's a list of diaspora Indian communities by size
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
axYes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Indeed but we are not the only country in Europe with a significant Indian diaspora and I really have seen no evidence that they were quicker than us in stopping flights.
My guess is that our Indian diaspora is much bigger, because Empire
Aaaaand Wiki supports this. Here's a list of diaspora Indian communities by size
Sri Lanka: huge surge in cases Canada: no surge yet, intriguing
With the USA you are discounting the number of non-resident Indians with US passports. India is strict in not allowing dual nationality and many choose the US option over the Indian option, settling instead for the halfway-house of "Person of Indian Origin". The US has not gone full Australia and refused to let its own citizens back from India
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Before another bout of hysteria breaks out on here, the question I would ask is does what the Govt decides re 21 June actually matter to 90%+ of people?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
Up to a point that's true. Leaving aside foreign holidays, where there's the complicating factor of what's going on in other countries to be considered, the remaining restrictions only ban outright large family occasions and a small number of venues like nightclubs, i.e. most people will indeed be unaffected. Not that this is much comfort to businesses and workers in the wedding and nightlife businesses, but hey-ho, let's just chuck 'em on the bonfire for the sake of "safety," shall we?
None of this doesn't mean that our lives aren't severely mucked about with nonetheless. Limits on all gatherings. Social distancing everywhere. These wretched fucking masks, custom made to leave you gasping for air in a hot building or bus or train in this weather. The hand sanitiser at every doorway. The constant nannying/bullying to comply with rules, all of which are inconvenient and many of which are downright silly.
But above all, the real concern is that this will never end. If the deal was that we were made to wait two weeks, or three weeks, or until the start of the school holidays, but that the promise was that the rules would be binned at the end of that period, then the imminent prospect of can kicking would not be so hard to take. Rather, it's the strong suspicion that there will just be an endless string of excuses for why public health fascism has to drag on and on and on. Not all adults have been vaccinated. Not all adults have been double vaccinated. What about the kids? What about the schools reopening? What about the cold, damp weather come the Autumn? What about the booster shots? What about the flu? On and on and on and on and on and on and on. Always one more excuse.
I don't want to spend the rest of my life being picked on and harassed and bossed about and told to "Stay safe," FFS. This, to me, doesn't seem like an especially controversial stance. After all, who really enjoys living like this, apart from the people who get a hardon from inflicting this misery on others?
Ultimately, the question is whether measures now are proportionate to the threat.
If the answer is no, then such intrusive measures must be discarded without delay, given there is significant harm from them.
The presumption is no measures. It's measures that need very good justification, and if there's doubt over it, you go with none or less.
Doubt we will hear anything from the fan club who thought it was a done deal last weekend and dishing out big dollops of praise. It will never pass enough parliaments to become effective, as each special interest chips away at the various governments and most importantly because the US wont ratify anything whilst they are so split.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
I'm not criticising you personally - you're entitled to your views, and vaccination is not mandatory. But "Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended." makes no sense. You'd struggle to be less close to the government than me - I'd have been delighted if Corbyn had won. But disagreeing with a government should have nothing to do with judging a decision on its merits. If being vaccinated is the sensible thing to do then it doesn't matter if it's also recommended by the ghost of Pol Pot.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
axYes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Indeed but we are not the only country in Europe with a significant Indian diaspora and I really have seen no evidence that they were quicker than us in stopping flights.
My guess is that our Indian diaspora is much bigger, because Empire
Aaaaand Wiki supports this. Here's a list of diaspora Indian communities by size
Sri Lanka: huge surge in cases Canada: no surge yet, intriguing
With the USA you are discounting the number of non-resident Indians with US passports. India is strict in not allowing dual nationality and many choose the US option over the Indian option, settling instead for the halfway-house of "Person of Indian Origin". The US has not gone full Australia and refused to let its own citizens back from India
PIO has been defunct for years - it's now Overseas Citizen of India, I mean Delta. (OCI)
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
Probably testing numbers also fallen off a cliff.
Testing has increased as cases have fallen in India.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
axYes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Indeed but we are not the only country in Europe with a significant Indian diaspora and I really have seen no evidence that they were quicker than us in stopping flights.
My guess is that our Indian diaspora is much bigger, because Empire
Aaaaand Wiki supports this. Here's a list of diaspora Indian communities by size
Sri Lanka: huge surge in cases Canada: no surge yet, intriguing
With the USA you are discounting the number of non-resident Indians with US passports. India is strict in not allowing dual nationality and many choose the US option over the Indian option, settling instead for the halfway-house of "Person of Indian Origin". The US has not gone full Australia and refused to let its own citizens back from India
PIO has been defunct for years - it's now Overseas Citizen of India, I mean Delta. (OCI)
Thanks Sunil. I gave up immigration law many years ago after I nearly managed to get a client stripped of his Indian Citizenship because I wasn't au fait with the zero tolerance no second passport policy in New Delhi.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
I thought Indian variant was 40% more than Kent which was 70% more than Wuhan, or so.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
Why have the cases in India fallen off a cliff?
Probably testing numbers also fallen off a cliff.
Testing has increased as cases have fallen in India.
We'll never actually know, noone will ever know how truly hideous their peak was...
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
The one thing that is very very odd about this variant is that it, thus far anyway, does not seem to be taking off in the same way in any other of the places it has been found like India and parts of the States.
Yes, this mystifies me. My guess is that (thanks to Boris' superb stupidity in keeping the border open) the Indian variant was more widely seeded here than elsewhere, so we are just further down the line, and we will soon see a surge in other countries with limited vaccination or great vax hesitancy
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
Before another bout of hysteria breaks out on here, the question I would ask is does what the Govt decides re 21 June actually matter to 90%+ of people?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
Up to a point that's true. Leaving aside foreign holidays, where there's the complicating factor of what's going on in other countries to be considered, the remaining restrictions only ban outright large family occasions and a small number of venues like nightclubs, i.e. most people will indeed be unaffected. Not that this is much comfort to businesses and workers in the wedding and nightlife businesses, but hey-ho, let's just chuck 'em on the bonfire for the sake of "safety," shall we?
None of this doesn't mean that our lives aren't severely mucked about with nonetheless. Limits on all gatherings. Social distancing everywhere. These wretched fucking masks, custom made to leave you gasping for air in a hot building or bus or train in this weather. The hand sanitiser at every doorway. The constant nannying/bullying to comply with rules, all of which are inconvenient and many of which are downright silly.
But above all, the real concern is that this will never end. If the deal was that we were made to wait two weeks, or three weeks, or until the start of the school holidays, but that the promise was that the rules would be binned at the end of that period, then the imminent prospect of can kicking would not be so hard to take. Rather, it's the strong suspicion that there will just be an endless string of excuses for why public health fascism has to drag on and on and on. Not all adults have been vaccinated. Not all adults have been double vaccinated. What about the kids? What about the schools reopening? What about the cold, damp weather come the Autumn? What about the booster shots? What about the flu? On and on and on and on and on and on and on. Always one more excuse.
I don't want to spend the rest of my life being picked on and harassed and bossed about and told to "Stay safe," FFS. This, to me, doesn't seem like an especially controversial stance. After all, who really enjoys living like this, apart from the people who get a hardon from inflicting this misery on others?
Thanks - I think that's an entirely reasonable post.
As for the whole thing going on for ever, I don't think it will, irrespective of what happens on 21 June. Because the number vaccinated within another few weeks will be such that there just won't be anything to debate.
In the meantime, I understand your frustration. But I maintain my original point - if the whole thing lasts 65 weeks or 68 weeks or 71 weeks really is pretty trivial in the overall scheme of things.
I'm sure my circle of friends may not be typical - but as I said before I genuinely don't know a single person remotely bothered about 21 June.
I read PB every day and my sense is that the people most vociferous about this whole issue are those whose passion about the subject comes from what they see as a point of principle, rather than from the practicalities.
And it's not surprising to see many such people on a political forum.
Before another bout of hysteria breaks out on here, the question I would ask is does what the Govt decides re 21 June actually matter to 90%+ of people?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
Up to a point that's true. Leaving aside foreign holidays, where there's the complicating factor of what's going on in other countries to be considered, the remaining restrictions only ban outright large family occasions and a small number of venues like nightclubs, i.e. most people will indeed be unaffected. Not that this is much comfort to businesses and workers in the wedding and nightlife businesses, but hey-ho, let's just chuck 'em on the bonfire for the sake of "safety," shall we?
None of this doesn't mean that our lives aren't severely mucked about with nonetheless. Limits on all gatherings. Social distancing everywhere. These wretched fucking masks, custom made to leave you gasping for air in a hot building or bus or train in this weather. The hand sanitiser at every doorway. The constant nannying/bullying to comply with rules, all of which are inconvenient and many of which are downright silly.
But above all, the real concern is that this will never end. If the deal was that we were made to wait two weeks, or three weeks, or until the start of the school holidays, but that the promise was that the rules would be binned at the end of that period, then the imminent prospect of can kicking would not be so hard to take. Rather, it's the strong suspicion that there will just be an endless string of excuses for why public health fascism has to drag on and on and on. Not all adults have been vaccinated. Not all adults have been double vaccinated. What about the kids? What about the schools reopening? What about the cold, damp weather come the Autumn? What about the booster shots? What about the flu? On and on and on and on and on and on and on. Always one more excuse.
I don't want to spend the rest of my life being picked on and harassed and bossed about and told to "Stay safe," FFS. This, to me, doesn't seem like an especially controversial stance. After all, who really enjoys living like this, apart from the people who get a hardon from inflicting this misery on others?
Ultimately, the question is whether measures now are proportionate to the threat.
If the answer is no, then such intrusive measures must be discarded without delay, given there is significant harm from them.
The presumption is no measures. It's measures that need very good justification, and if there's doubt over it, you go with none or less.
I'd say that the current position is the exact reverse of this. It would seem that we are stuck with the measures until it is conclusively proven that it is safe, from the point of view of disease suppression, to do without them (other healthcare harms appear to take a back seat; the needs of the economy and civil liberties are treated as an irrelevance.)
In order to keep the rules going, all that the catastrophist scientists therefore have to do is custom pick their favoured piece of evidence, augment it with made-up computer models and other wholly theoretical possibilities such as total vaccine escape by a future variant, and then scream repeatedly that all of this implies a mountain of corpses if they don't get their way.
Comments
We could get 5 million additional people covered in next 2 weeks.
I am bitterly and completely opposed to everything the government has done except the initial lockdown to 'prepare the NHS' for COVID. Three weeks to flatten the curve.
Why on earth would I do anything a government that I abhor like no other has recommended. Anything I do not have to do?
Non-compliance where possible is my mantra. I do not want to be part of this game.
And I ask you. Where is playing the game getting you? The medical establishment is now moving us past the 'vaccines will set us free' stage.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1402657209486565386?s=20
No-one could describe the increase in hospitalisations as a third wave.
Here are the Wednesday new hospitalisation figures doing back from today (going back in time in two week gaps):
123
115
106
124
181
268
465
725
Anyone arguing for a deferment of 21 June is not arguing from the evidence. They are arguing from a fear that things might get worse. And this is insufficient, IMO, to even remotely warrant further restraint by the state of personal freedoms.
Even if we have herd immunity on average there will be pockets of the herd where it is below average. The virus will spread in those pockets of areas where there are vulnerabilities but it won't take off and sweep through the herd as a whole like it could last year.
The original rationale for suspending AZ for under 40s was the risk of blood clots outweighs the risk of Covid or transmission: in a Very Low Covid Prevalence Situation. We are no longer in that situation, we are looking at potential exponential growth, once again
Just jab the fuck out of everyone, NOW
Will be rather amusing, if Parliament were to be recalled over the summer, to see where all the MPs ended up.
You can argue for or against lockdown, but where on earth do you think the critical mass of antivaxxers is going to come from to change Gov't policy on this ?
That's a genuine question.
A curve like India has seen, on a per capita basis but with the benefits of vaccination, would see us with a month or two of exponential growth, flattening then sharp decline and possibly a max daily count of 30-40k but limited rises in deaths and the NHS never close to overwhelmed.
Sentiment will turn when the money runs out. When people see the real effects of what it is has been done on their behalf.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe it will never run out. But I bet it will.
There is a big clue there
He has done this on other topics before - he just enjoys poking everyone and getting a response - by being ... contrary.....
Just stop feeding the troll
The aim of the game now appears to be to keep, at a minimum, the poxy masks in force until the Autumn, and then use the bad weather/Winter flu argument to keep this bullshit going indefinitely. Same will happen in Scotland.
Just as we thought we had Hitler beaten, he launched this super-weapon.
If he'd had this technology 2-3 years earlier, he might easily have won the war, especially if you add nukes. However it came too late, the Allies were overrunning occupied Europe and Hitler ran out of time, slaves. space, materials
The allies are the vaccines, overwhelming the virus, even as it shows this sting in the tail. We hope
I still support relaxing legal restrictions, but looking at the data:
1) Cases are increasing at a rapid rate. Not only that, the increase is accelerating (% increase on 7-day average going up each day, now at +66%). Arguing that we've reached herd immunity is demonstrably wrong.
2) Hospitalisation data is good, but still probably increasing slowly. The relative unknown is what that will look like 2 weeks after we reach 20k cases a day, which will be used as an argument to wait for more data before easing. Similar story for deaths, but with a longer lag there's not much evidence of an increase yet.
3) New vaccinations are outpacing cases still, which will help with both points 1 and 2 above. This can be used to argue for "wait until X% vaccinated"...
A possible political argument for easing is the above will continue even with the current restrictions, so by keeping things where they are Johnson is pleasing precisely no one. It won't stop cases rising, but it means lots of people have their lives disrupted for longer (e.g. friends of mine that have already-delayed weddings planned for early July).
In respect of the Britain they will inherit eventually, the young of our country have been thrown to the wolves to protect your generation. Absolutely to the wolves.
This virus affected them hardly at all, and they have been sacrificed at every turn.
But you're really not in that category.
Even flint-knapping sex toy makers now have agents, according to one comment earlier on this thread.
He does seem genuine. I think his views are probably pretty widespread in for example, the red states in the US.
I just find the decision not to take the vaccine baffling. The risk/reward ratio is so obviously in favour of taking it for a male of middle age and upwards, which is a category iirc, contrarian falls into.
Surely whether a person is a good citizen or not should be seen in the round. For example, is a criminal who has been vaccinated a better 'citizen' than a hard working taxpayer who is not?
You are simply turning on me in your frustration that you are not free even though you have complied at every step.
Just get vaccinated
Unless if you sign up to the trial there's a chance you get a placebo. Not sure I'd take up that one if I was in their position !
Liberty was and is my birthright. It was bought in blood and treasure by previous generations. It is, or it was, the best thing about being British. It was the best thing about being human.
It's all about being opposed to state coercion in all forms. Red states is right - libertarian wild-west thinking I call it.
On this one I happen to disagree 100% with him. But I'm glad he's here putting the view across.
May be one day he'll argue the unfashionable on a topic where you or I can see eye to eye with him.
Or even where we will have to concede he may have a bit of a point.
Which would never happen if we never heard from him.
Also, it IS making sad progress in countries like Malaysia (which has a very large Indian population). They are in the middle of a savage new exponential wave
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/malaysia/
As I said before just get vaccinated, it is not hard
Libertarian is to avoid state coercion and to make your own choice. Since the evidence is that the vaccine is good for you and others the sane libertarian thing to do is to take the vaccine because its good for you and others of your own free choice, not because the state says so.
The NHS says to drink water. The libertarian thing to do is not to refuse to drink water as a result.
Portland (resto)?
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210328/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccines-safe-for-pregnant-women
But no people mock him for not wanting to put something into his body that the government says he should. Ponder that. Not wanting to inject something that was developed less than a year ago. That that is worthy of mockery no matter the good or bad reasons for doing so is extraordinary.
I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with a helluva lot of it. I have posted much about the freedom vs safety element and the imo egregious transgressions of the govt against our liberties but people on here (and in the UK it seems) are happy to swallow them all because they think they are being kept safe.
This may be so - but at what cost?
The point is that the vast majority of businesses have already reopened and the vast majority of activities are already taking place again.
Sure there are a few things like nightclubs and people getting married wanting a big party but these only affect a small proportion of the population and they generally aren't essential activities.
I don't personally know anybody who is bothered whether 21 June is delayed or not.
Which is why I suspect there won't be any riots or even any movement in the opinion polls if 21 June is delayed - but there will be all kinds of hysteria on here.
There's A Stark Red-Blue Divide When It Comes To States' Vaccination Rates
https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004430257/theres-a-stark-red-blue-divide-when-it-comes-to-states-vaccination-rates
I was actually vaccinated against flu in 2019, but that was something I decided for myself weighing up the pros and cons objectively with no interference.
The Covid vaccine, just like the mask and the social distancing have far, far advanced beyond mere health measures. Far beyond.
Now Red states are opening fully, or have opened fully for a while, and we see the results. And they have given me encouragement that I have a point.
Indeed, Red state outcomes challenge everything we believe to be true about our own response to the virus. And that is why we hear so little about them, I guess.
I feel a bit like how a citizen of an Eastern bloc country must have felt looking out at the West before communism collapsed. Partying. Enjoying freedom. Living.
So long as they aren't calling for the government to do so, then he is free not to bother.
*As in, I don’t actively wish evil upon him, unlike the way I feel about most of his colleagues.
Everyone I know pretty much except a few youngster shave had the vaccine and you know what, they're all fine. All of them.
I know a couple of handfuls of people who've had Covid and some of them have become long coviders.
It's just crackers to not bother with the vaccine.
High-minded refusals of the vax programme are like conscientious objection in that same terrible war. If everyone does it, we are all fucked
Stop the selfish posing, get jabbed, enough. Otherwise we won't help you if you fall ill. You die alone
It is ludicrous to starting weighing up wrongs like that. By your logic someone who kills someone by drunk driving is ok because they aren't a serial killer. Absolutely nutty argument. Both you and the criminal are wrong, but in your case you may cause someone to die.
Aaaaand Wiki supports this. Here's a list of diaspora Indian communities by size
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-resident_Indian_and_person_of_Indian_origin
In the top six are Malaysia and the UK: both seeing a new surge in cases. The rest of the EU is nowhere
The others in the top six are
UAE: vaxed
Myanmar: closed (surely?)
USA: (smaller proportion, closed?)
Saudi: closed
Just behind us is
Sri Lanka: huge surge in cases
Canada: no surge yet, intriguing
Like you I really must dash
None of this doesn't mean that our lives aren't severely mucked about with nonetheless. Limits on all gatherings. Social distancing everywhere. These wretched fucking masks, custom made to leave you gasping for air in a hot building or bus or train in this weather. The hand sanitiser at every doorway. The constant nannying/bullying to comply with rules, all of which are inconvenient and many of which are downright silly.
But above all, the real concern is that this will never end. If the deal was that we were made to wait two weeks, or three weeks, or until the start of the school holidays, but that the promise was that the rules would be binned at the end of that period, then the imminent prospect of can kicking would not be so hard to take. Rather, it's the strong suspicion that there will just be an endless string of excuses for why public health fascism has to drag on and on and on. Not all adults have been vaccinated. Not all adults have been double vaccinated. What about the kids? What about the schools reopening? What about the cold, damp weather come the Autumn? What about the booster shots? What about the flu? On and on and on and on and on and on and on. Always one more excuse.
I don't want to spend the rest of my life being picked on and harassed and bossed about and told to "Stay safe," FFS. This, to me, doesn't seem like an especially controversial stance. After all, who really enjoys living like this, apart from the people who get a hardon from inflicting this misery on others?
PA is the exception in having high vaccination rates.
quelle surprise
If the answer is no, then such intrusive measures must be discarded without delay, given there is significant harm from them.
The presumption is no measures. It's measures that need very good justification, and if there's doubt over it, you go with none or less.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1402671467809083393?s=21
I have to say that it feels like the U.K. has decent leverage here.
Reading it again now the experts are saying "shit the R number of the delta variant is 6. get the jabs done now at any cost!'
As for the whole thing going on for ever, I don't think it will, irrespective of what happens on 21 June. Because the number vaccinated within another few weeks will be such that there just won't be anything to debate.
In the meantime, I understand your frustration. But I maintain my original point - if the whole thing lasts 65 weeks or 68 weeks or 71 weeks really is pretty trivial in the overall scheme of things.
I'm sure my circle of friends may not be typical - but as I said before I genuinely don't know a single person remotely bothered about 21 June.
I read PB every day and my sense is that the people most vociferous about this whole issue are those whose passion about the subject comes from what they see as a point of principle, rather than from the practicalities.
And it's not surprising to see many such people on a political forum.
CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)
tHe VaCcInE bOuNcE iS fAdInG
In order to keep the rules going, all that the catastrophist scientists therefore have to do is custom pick their favoured piece of evidence, augment it with made-up computer models and other wholly theoretical possibilities such as total vaccine escape by a future variant, and then scream repeatedly that all of this implies a mountain of corpses if they don't get their way.